0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. And one of those things, albeit not the most important thing in the world, is schedule analysis.
0:08It's looking at who our players might be facing because we know that matchups are not irrelevant.
0:14I do this episode every year on early-season schedule analysis.
0:17Like I said, it's not the end-all, but I focus on the early-season stuff because 1.
0:23Teams are healthy. We have some idea as to what defenses are going to look like.
0:28Whereas if we did this before the season looking at like week 15 or 16, we might have some idea, but defenses
0:36are going to look a lot different personnel-wise. Because injuries happen and things change.
0:402. We want to have confidence in the players that we draft and we want to turn a profit immediately.
0:47If your first-round pick has a tough early-season schedule and if he struggles, even if you know those matchups were tough, you're still going to have some doubts.
0:56You ideally want to win and win right away.
1:00Not only in the win-loss column, but you want your players to increase in value so you can feel more comfortable with what you have on your team.
1:09And in more active leagues, you can then trade them for a profit.
1:13So the idea with the analysis that I'm about to get to is that it shouldn't be the sole decision-maker for you.
1:21But as a tiebreaker, as something to at least keep in mind as you draft players knowing that you might need some
1:28backup if the player has a tough schedule, I think it can be useful for that.
1:34Actually, I know it can because it has in the past.
1:37Now before getting into that analysis, just as a reminder, check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
1:43It's well over 270 pages of content where I go through game theory, I explain how to spot breakouts and busts, there's
1:51a section on players to target and avoid, there's cheat sheets, and so much more.
1:56You can order it right now on Lateround.com, or you can become an All Access member.
2:01If you're an All Access member, you get access to not only the draft guide, but the prospect guide too, alongside all
2:08the member perks like Discord access, rankings and tiers, and more.
2:12You can learn more about everything again over on Lateround.com.
2:16I've said before on the show that Malik Willis is the easiest pick to make in season-long leagues this year.
2:22Not necessarily best ball, but season-long? Yes. Because if he's terrible, and we see that he's terrible, you can make a move
2:30and start streaming as your worst-case scenario. Or you just draft Malik Willis and another quarterback this year to increase your odds with hitting on one of them.
2:39Maybe pair him with a more stable piece like Brock Purdy or something.
2:44Willis showed off some upside in a small sample in Green Bay, but this episode, it's not about digging into why you should be into him.
2:52I'm bringing him up because there's something a little extra to get excited about.
2:57Miami has a really favorable schedule to open up the season.
3:01Willis could actually get off to a hot start.
3:04Miami opens the season against the Raiders, then they get the 49ers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, a bye week, and then the Jets.
3:11Now, I'll be referencing the secondary rankings on today's show from Sharp Football Analysis, just to have something objective to share with you guys.
3:20And according to those rankings, five of those six opponents rank 23rd or worse in pass defense entering the year.
3:26The one team who ranks higher than that is Minnesota.
3:30Minnesota ranks 16th according to those rankings. That means Miami doesn't have a super tough opponent in terms of pass defense across their first six games.
3:38And we know Miami, they might lean run heavy.
3:41But like I said, in that stretch of games, they get the 49ers, the Chiefs, and the Bengals.
3:48Those are games where they might be forced to throw the ball a little bit more.
3:53We don't know what this pass catching room is going to look like for the Dolphins.
3:58But I do think that this should make you feel a little bit more comfortable in drafting Malik Willis this year.
4:05We know the upside is present, and there's not that much in the way in terms of schedule.
4:12Denver has a really tough schedule to open up the season.
4:15They get the Chiefs in week one, then it's the Jags, the Rams, the 49ers, the Chargers, and then the Seahawks.
4:22That is absolutely brutal. Five of those six teams have win totals above 10.
4:27I do think there's high scoring potential in some of those contests.
4:31But I think that we should be cognizant of the fact that Denver has a real shot to hit some negative game scripts through this stretch.
4:40And if that's the case, I'm looking at that backfield, and it makes me a little bit more fearful about J.K.
4:47Dobbins. Dobbins played fewer than 15% of the Broncos' long down and distant snaps last year.
4:53And he was on the field for fewer than 30% of the team's two-minute snaps.
4:58Now, we don't know exactly how some of that work is going to be divided this year.
5:03There's a slightly different look to that backfield. But if the Broncos end up trailing in any of those games, I do
5:11think we run into the risk of Dobbins being game scripted out.
5:15Now, I personally have not been that high on Dobbins this year because if I'm grabbing an early down back, I'd rather
5:22just wait and get someone like Jordan Mason or maybe even Chris Rodriguez.
5:27They go a lot later on the major platforms.
5:30And this is another reason why I'm more out than in on Dobbins this year.
5:35I'm bullish on the Jags this year. I love that offense.
5:38But I do have to admit that facing Cleveland, Denver, and New England to kick off the year won't be the easiest
5:46thing for the passing offense to face. They get a slight break in Week 4 against Cincinnati, but then it's Philly and Houston right after that.
5:55For context, Sharp Football has five of those first six opponents as having top 10 secondaries in football entering the season.
6:02Now, I don't think this is necessarily a death sentence for the team's passing attack, especially considering the Jags have team totals
6:09of 20 to 24.5 in each of those games according to DraftKings.
6:13With that being said, we're not getting the huge team total spikes that we've got for them post-buy.
6:19The first six games for the Jags have an average team total of 22.2.
6:24Their next five games are 24.6, so two and a half points higher, which when it comes to probability, median outcomes, and
6:32team totals, that's not insignificant at all. So be aware of this as you're drafting Jags this year.
6:38It's not making me off of them. I still like the Jags passing attack.
6:42It's just that we might have an opportunity to buy after that Week 7 buy.
6:47Jameer Gibbs is my 101 this year, and my goodness, the Lions could just smash in general this year offensively.
6:54Let me read the matchups for Detroit to start the year.
6:58Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, buy week. Not only are those four very winnable games where we could end up seeing positive
7:05game scripts, but that game against Buffalo has a chance to be high scoring too.
7:10Detroit's schedule according to win totals is actually the easiest in all of football this year, like across the season.
7:17And while we'd want more of a back and forth nature from a game script perspective, we know that implied team totals
7:25can at least give us some idea of how well an offense is going to perform.
7:30And Detroit doesn't have a single matchup where their implied team total right now today is under 24 points.
7:37They're the only team in football where that's the case.
7:40That's good news for everyone in that offense. But with this being about early season schedules, it doesn't get that much better
7:47for a player like Gibbs than the Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers, and Cardinals.
7:52We may not see as much passing volume, but I'm expecting a great start for this Lions run game.
7:58The Chargers have a really interesting schedule this year.
8:01It's like a parabola. The first two weeks are great.
8:05They face the Cardinals and Raiders. Hello, Amari and Hampton.
8:08But then after that two-week stretch, you get the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, and Ravens.
8:14Brutal. After that, though, it's the Jets, Patriots, Bucks, Raiders, 49ers, Dolphins, and Chiefs.
8:18Some tougher matchups in there for sure, but it's not nearly as bad as that middle season stretch.
8:25So what does this all mean? Well, I don't think you need to necessarily draft Chargers any differently than you already have been.
8:32But I do think that after week two, we may have a sell opportunity if your fantasy team's like 0-2 with someone like Amari and Hampton.
8:41Or even Justin Herbert. Just because that post-week two stretch is really tough.
8:45It's at least something to keep in mind if we're entering week three and we're saying, Amari and Hampton's a league winner.
8:53I wouldn't ignore who they were facing. Though I do like Amari and Hampton this year.
8:58So the TLDR here, draft Chargers as you've been drafting them.
9:02Be prepared for a lot of points in weeks one and two.
9:06But then also be prepared for potential decision after those weeks are over.
9:11Fortunately, we don't have to really worry about that right now.
9:14The Bills open up their season against the Texans, the Lions, the Chargers, the Patriots, and the Rams.
9:20That's really tough. Not only do we have some teams in there that could be tough defensively, but clearly all of those teams have pretty strong win totals.
9:30In fact, only Houston's below 10 wins. And they clearly have one of the best defenses in the game.
9:36The Bills are good themselves, so it doesn't mean that they're a lock to be in a bad game script.
9:43With that being said, if they do find themselves in that situation, James Cook becomes a little bit riskier.
9:49Largely because last year, including the playoffs, Cook played fewer than 10% of the Bills long down and distance snaps.
9:56And he played fewer than 30% of their two-minute snaps.
10:00Now there have been reports of them using him more in the passing game this year.
10:05Which would really push him into more elite fantasy football territory if that's the case.
10:10And he's already been awesome. Because we typically see him under that 10% target share.
10:15That's going to give his profile a lot more stability.
10:18But do be aware that there's at least some chance for the Bills offense to not have the best rushing numbers over
10:26the first five weeks of the season. I don't think it's as big of a deal because the Bills themselves are good, like I said.
10:34And they can easily flip these scripts. We're not talking about a bad team with this kind of schedule.
10:41But it's something to keep in mind specifically with James Cook.
10:45A very similar situation exists with the Arizona Cardinals.
10:48The Cards open their season against the Chargers, Seahawks, and 49ers.
10:51Three teams with high win totals. And the Cardinals could very easily be the worst team in football.
10:57Now Arizona's not the easiest team to figure out this year.
11:01They threw more than any other team last season.
11:04The defense still projects to be pretty bad, putting them in negative game scripts.
11:09But it's not always easy to project the same type of scripts year over year.
11:14Especially when there's turnover. There's a new coaching staff.
11:17There's a brand new system. It's just not as simple as looking at last season numbers and converting them to this year.
11:24On top of that, the Cardinals spent their top 5 pick on Jeremiah Love.
11:29So they probably at least want to run the ball a little bit more year over year.
11:35But they could struggle to do that to start the year with these matchups.
11:40And what's specifically interesting about this dynamic, in my opinion, is the Tyler Algier-Jeremiah Love split to open up the season.
11:47I think we could all see a scenario where Arizona splits their backfield a little bit more at the beginning of the
11:54season compared to the end of the season. To get Love acclimated to the game and to ease him in.
12:01But the projection for this backfield is that Love's going to do more as a pass catcher than Tyler Algier.
12:08But what happens if they hit a negative game script early on in the season?
12:13Is this going to make Algier just not viable whatsoever?
12:16I think that's a reasonable question to ask if you're going to draft Tyler Algier this year.
12:22And manage season-long leagues. I personally don't think it's a worthwhile bet when there are still players in his range who can
12:29naturally carve out pretty big roles in their offenses.
12:32And with the schedule being what it is to start the year, you're probably looking at him being a touchdown-dependent option.
12:39That's not what I want to bank on in a situation like this.
12:44But if those negative game scripts do hit, which I would imagine they do given this schedule, we could see the Cardinals
12:51kick off the year with a lot of passing volume.
12:55And to be honest, Arizona might still see a lot of passing volume this year because through the lens of win totals,
13:02no team has a harder schedule than Arizona this season.
13:06Now look, I do expect some regression on the passing front.
13:09Like despite the fact that the schedule is really hard.
13:13And the chaos of potentially using Carson Beck at some point this year, later in the season probably, that's also scary for the pass catchers in this offense.
13:22But projection-wise, they still look like a team with okay passing volume.
13:26Just be aware those first three weeks could be pretty tough for them before that Giants game in week four.
13:33The Ravens have high implied team totals throughout the season.
13:36That's no surprise, Lamar Jackson's their quarterback. And while we usually get excited for Derrick Henry towards the end of the season,
13:44when he always seems to come through, there's a very, very real chance that we get great game scripts for Baltimore and Derrick Henry to start the year.
13:53Henry rarely plays long down-and-distance snaps and two-minute snaps.
13:56Last year, those numbers were just 12% and 10% according to Fantasy Life data.
14:01We know this. It's why his route share is only in that 30-35% range.
14:06He's just a totally different type of running back, a totally different type of player.
14:11He's an outlier. He defies all pass-catching trends. But that might not matter to start the year.
14:17Listen to this Ravens schedule. Week one against Indianapolis.
14:20Okay, not necessarily the easiest matchup on earth, but Baltimore is a road favorite.
14:24Then it's the Saints in Baltimore, the Cowboys, Titans, Falcons, Browns, Bengals.
14:28We're looking at great matchups for Derrick Henry and positive game scripts littered throughout that stretch.
14:34I'd anticipate that whole offense getting off to a strong start.
14:38But Henry, he could be the one who benefits most.
14:41Lastly, since we're talking about schedule analysis here, I want to throw out some potential defensive streaming options to kick off your season.
14:49A target in your drafts. The Chargers should be your go-to.
14:52They get Arizona in week one, and then they get Vegas in week two.
14:57It doesn't get much better than that. There really aren't many other teams with totally clean week one and two matchups.
15:04Green Bay gets Minnesota, probably Kyler Murray in week one, but that's still more of like a whatever type of matchup.
15:11It's in Minnesota. Just know that Green Bay in week two, they get the Jets.
15:16But outside the Chargers, if you're looking for a defensive streamer for weeks one and two, for me, it's probably Philadelphia.
15:23They get Washington in week one, and then Tennessee in week two.
15:28And if you're only looking at week one, the Jags are seven and a half point favorites against Cleveland, and it's in Jacksonville.
15:35So that's my week one streaming choice in a game with just a 40 and a half point total.
15:42But that's it. Like I said, the early season schedule analysis is not the end all, but it definitely can be used to help settle tiebreakers.
15:51And to be honest, it can be used to help us understand what narratives might be floating out there once we're in the thick of it.
15:59And once these teams have played a few games, we have to find as many edges as we can.
16:06And schedule analysis. It's one of those edges. That's it for today's show, though.
16:10Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it.
16:19Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
16:26Thanks for listening, everyone. We got Becoming a Best Ball Bro later in the week.
16:31We got the Late Round Fantasy Football Show later.
16:35And then at the end of the week, you get a mailbag episode.
16:39I'll catch you guys soon. I'm U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
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16:52A few minutes saved by going faster is never worth the risk.
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17:01And know that along the way, you're getting quality time with your family.
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