1108: The RB2 Rebirth
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
32 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 7, 2026
Published
Tue, July 7, 2026
25
Player insights
25
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron JonesAlvin KamaraBijan RobinsonChase BrownChris ThompsonChristian McCaffreyChuba HubbardDavid MontgomeryDylan SampsonJ.D. McKissicJ.K. DobbinsJadarian PriceJames WhiteJaylen Warren
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
PositiveRole24:30
JJ Zachariason identifies Aaron Jones as a balanced workload archetype back who doesn't appear set for massive rushing volume but can handle 10–14 carries when needed, combining receiving juice with carry capacity.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
PositiveProjection23:01
JJ Zachariason projects Alvin Kamara as a potential top-10 target candidate, noting uncertainty around his overall role but identifying upside in his receiving volume potential despite the presence of Travis Etienne in the Saints backfield. Kamara fits the historical mold of a running back who can accumulate significant fantasy production through receiving without heavy rushing volume.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
PositiveRole6:00
When healthy, Robinson commands a large target share and eats up a significant portion of overall receiving targets, representing the modern archetype of elite dual-threat running backs alongside McCaffrey and Jameer Gibbs.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveBreakout26:26
JJ Zachariason characterizes Chase Brown as an emerging player type who doesn't have the full Christian McCaffrey workload but has a far superior profile to two-down-only backs; Brown's balanced role combining carries and targets makes him significantly more valuable than pure early-down backs. This emerging archetype—backs who can handle both carries and targets—represents the new RB2 landscape.
Insight pageChris Thompson
PositiveSleeper10:30
Thompson is cited as a historical example of a PPR specialist running back who could achieve 11+ PPR points per game through receiving alone; exemplifies the archetype of pass-catching specialists that was viable in zero-RB builds but has become rare.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveRole5:00
McCaffrey is part of a 'pure big three' of elite running backs who combine elite rushing volume, elite receiving volume, and strong goal-line roles. JJ Zachariason uses McCaffrey as the benchmark for a full-featured workload; when healthy, McCaffrey commands a large target share and eats up a significant portion of overall receiving targets, representing the modern archetype of a featured back who can accumulate significant fantasy production through both rushing and passing game contributions.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveRole24:45
JJ Zachariason identifies Chuba Hubbard as part of an emerging archetype of balanced-workload running backs who can handle both carries and targets. Historically, Zachariason would have avoided pairing backs like Hubbard with pass-catching specialists, but the modern NFL landscape has shifted to favor backs with dual-threat capacity—those who can handle featured workloads while maintaining receiving juice.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeRole26:50
JJ Zachariason groups David Montgomery with backs who lack balanced workload capacity and don't have the range of outcomes to handle both carries and targets. Montgomery is a fade candidate because he cannot replicate the emerging balanced-role archetype; you cannot simply substitute a back like Woody Marks for Montgomery and expect to replace his workload. The modern RB2 landscape requires dual-threat capacity.
Insight pageDylan Sampson
NegativeRole23:36
JJ Zachariason notes that the era of Dylan Samson-type pass-catching specialists reliably getting seven targets per game is over. The NFL landscape has shifted away from pure receiving-role backs, making this archetype less viable.
Insight pageJ.D. McKissic
NegativeSleeper10:12
McKissick is cited as a historical PPR specialist running back who achieved 10+ PPR points per game on minimal rushing volume; represents the archetype of pass-catching specialists that was more prevalent in 2016-2020 but has become rare.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeRole26:50
JJ Zachariason groups J.K. Dobbins with backs who lack balanced workload capacity and don't have the range of outcomes to handle both carries and targets. Dobbins is a fade candidate because he cannot replicate the emerging balanced-role archetype that defines the modern RB2 landscape; he lacks the dual-threat profile needed to be relevant.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeRole26:50
JJ Zachariason groups Jadarian Price with backs who lack balanced workload capacity and don't have the range of outcomes to handle both carries and targets. Price is a fade candidate because he cannot replicate the emerging balanced-role archetype that defines the modern RB2 landscape; he lacks the dual-threat profile needed to be relevant.
Insight pageJames White
NegativeSleeper10:12
White is cited as a historical example of a PPR specialist running back who achieved 10+ PPR points per game on minimal rushing volume (8.5 or fewer carries per game); represents an archetype that was more common in 2016-2020 but has become rare in recent years.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
NegativeRole24:03
JJ Zachariason identifies Jalen Warren as the easiest example of a back who transcends the pure PPR specialist bucket because he can handle carries. Warren has logged 149, 120, and 211 carries over his last three seasons, making him a relevant player despite historically fitting the PPR merchant archetype. His ability to handle 200+ carries elevates him beyond phase-out risk.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
PositiveSleeper13:00
Gainwell is identified as one of the rare modern examples of a PPR specialist running back who achieved 10+ PPR points per game on minimal rushing volume (8.5 or fewer carries per game) in 2025; represents a surviving archetype of pass-catching specialists that has become increasingly rare. JJ Zachariason names Gainwell as an example of the PPR specialist archetype—players who might not crack 150 carries but have good receiving roles.
Insight pageNyheim Hines
NegativeSleeper10:12
Hines is cited as a historical PPR specialist running back who achieved 10+ PPR points per game on minimal rushing volume (8.5 or fewer carries per game); represents an archetype that was more common in 2016-2020 but has become rare in recent years.
Insight pageRex Burkhead
NegativeSleeper10:12
Burkhead is cited as a historical PPR specialist running back who achieved 10+ PPR points per game on minimal rushing volume; represents the archetype of pass-catching specialists that was more prevalent in 2016-2020 but has become rare.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveRole24:45
JJ Zachariason groups Ramondre Stevenson with balanced workload backs who can handle both carries and targets. Historically he would have avoided pairing Stevenson with Travion Henderson, but the new balanced workload archetype makes both relevant as pass-catching running backs.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeRole23:19
JJ Zachariason names RJ Harvey as an example of the PPR specialist archetype—players who might not crack 150 carries but have good receiving roles.
Insight pageTarik Cohen
NegativeSleeper10:12
Cohen is cited as a historical PPR specialist running back who achieved 10+ PPR points per game on minimal rushing volume (8.5 or fewer carries per game); represents an archetype that was more common in 2016-2020 but has become rare in recent years.
Insight pageTheo Riddick
PositiveSleeper10:30
Reddick is cited as a historical example of a PPR specialist running back who could achieve 11+ PPR points per game through receiving; exemplifies the archetype of pass-catching specialists that was viable in zero-RB builds but has become rare.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeRole23:11
JJ Zachariason notes that Travis Etienne is a viable pass catcher, but his role as a pass catcher is historically overstated. This context is relevant for understanding why Alvin Kamara could still command significant target volume despite Etienne's presence in the Saints backfield.
Insight pageTrayvon Henderson
PositiveRole24:45
JJ Zachariason groups Travion Henderson with balanced workload backs who can handle both carries and targets. Historically he would have avoided pairing Henderson with Ramondre Stevenson, but the new balanced workload archetype makes both relevant as pass-catching running backs.
Insight pageWoody Marks
NegativeRole27:06
JJ Zachariason uses Woody Marks as a cautionary example, noting that you cannot simply substitute Marks for David Montgomery and expect to replace Montgomery's workload; the point is that backs need balanced carry-and-target capacity to be relevant in the modern NFL.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
PositiveSleeper13:00
Charbonnet is identified as one of the rare modern examples of a running back who achieved 10+ PPR points per game on minimal rushing volume (8.5 or fewer carries per game) in 2024; represents a surviving archetype of pass-catching specialists that has become increasingly rare.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome to Alaska Airlines.
0:04We're now flying to London. So enjoy a cup of tea in your lie-flat suite, and get ready to experience all London has to offer.
0:13Lie back, relax, and let your dreams take flight.
0:16Welcome to Alaska Airlines. This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:21What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen in this episode 1108 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:26Thanks for tuning in. This time last week, I had a conversation with Late-Round Fantasy Football's own Brandon Gadula about catchable targets.
0:34He had done a study for one of our newsletters on the topic, and there were some really interesting takeaways for 2026 drafts.
0:42Well, this week we're running it back. But instead of catchable targets, I had a conversation with Brandon about an even more
0:50important fantasy football topic, the RB2 rebirth. The NFL has slowly morphed into a slightly different game than what we saw six, seven, or eight years ago.
0:59We've got heavy personnel all over the place, we have a run-heavier league in general, and that's made an impact on fantasy football.
1:07When I talked about the death of the fantasy football wide receiver 2 back in January, one of the things I dug into was positional target share data.
1:17Quite simply, how targets were distributed across wide receiver, running back, and tight end.
1:22With more tight end usage came lower wide receiver target shares.
1:26But things have been changing at running back too.
1:29That's what Brandon really investigated in a newsletter that he had sent out last week.
1:34Which, just a reminder guys, that newsletter is totally free.
1:38There's no reason to not be signed up. But that research last week was so good that I wanted to do another episode of the show with Brandon.
1:47Not only does it allow you guys to get to know him and his approach a little bit better, but man, it's
1:55just really good and thoughtful research that's going to make all of us better players.
2:00At the very least, it'll probably make you feel a little bit differently about this game.
2:06Brandon found some very interesting pass catching trends at running back.
2:10We'll get into that in just a second. First, this is one of your final reminders to get the late round draft guide at its pre-order price.
2:19That guide is going to launch Friday this week.
2:22And with it pretty much completed, I can confidently tell you guys that it's the most comprehensive piece of fantasy football content that I've ever put together.
2:32There's almost 300 pages of content. There's strategy talk, ways to find breakouts, players to target, players to avoid, rankings and tiers, and more.
2:40You can check it out and learn more over on lateround.com.
2:44Now let's get to this discussion with Brandon Gadula.
2:47All right, Brandon, back to back weeks with the late round podcast.
2:52You sent a newsletter out last week on this sort of changing receiving landscape at running back.
2:57What made you dig into the topic? Well, I was writing up some market score sections for something called the late round
3:05draft guide, which releases July 10th this week. It's going to be updated weekly, mark new market score information.
3:12I'm excited. So make sure you head over to lateround.com to pre-order that.
3:16But yeah, so I'm digging through market score sections, kind of introing, you know, each position going through.
3:23And naturally, as you do content, you flow through position by position, quarterback, running back, receiver, tight end.
3:29So I'm rolling right at a quarterback and I'm going into running back and, you know, it just kind of it emerged
3:37in, you know, the market score analysis that the quarterback has this sort of underlying value through rushing.
3:43And what you kind of dig into with quarterback also, it's a very similar sort of process at running back.
3:50I mean, Rich Rebar, of course, coined the Konami code as in Russian quarterbacks being, you know, cheat codes for fantasy football.
3:58But now we get into a scenario in the NFL where we have Russian quarterbacks who can actually rival some of the
4:05top pocket passers with their arms as well. So that's what separates these guys like a Josh Allen, a Peek Lamar.
4:13It makes them so impactful. And then as you're digging through market score, as you'll learn.
4:18And I mean, if you've listened to JJ for a while, you realize it's the sort of secondary lever of production at running back.
4:27But pass catching matters a lot. And so it was just such a like clear parallel of how two of the most
4:34important factors in fantasy football are secondary components of two of the four fantasy positions.
4:40So, you know, quarterback rushing and running back receiving.
4:43So I'm looking at this and I'm like, OK, there's got to be, you know, a simple sort of like way to kind of draw this together.
4:52And, you know, this year we've got really a big two, but you probably throw Christian McCaffrey in there as a pure
5:00big three because we have running backs who have elite rushing volume, have elite receiving volume and good goal line rolls, if not great goal line rolls.
5:09So I was like, OK, it's very similar at the top.
5:13And then it kind of hit me, though, because we have we have a Malik Willis this year, a quarterback could be
5:21a cheat code could just, you know, rush his way.
5:25But we also got, you know, Jackson Dart, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray types, these guys who aren't just all legs.
5:32And then it kind of was like, well, who were the names at running back who fit that sort of Malik Willis mold?
5:40Yeah, sort of PPR scammer kind of players that we have all grown to love over the years.
5:46And it just kind of hit me that there weren't a lot of them coming to mind.
5:52And so I started digging in and I think I found some interesting data.
5:57Yeah, let's talk about that data. So like at a macro level, what are you seeing happening league wide with receiving volume at running back?
6:05Yeah, so I think it's interesting just to like drop that we're all looking at tight ends and how they're seeing more targets.
6:14And you broke down the death of the fantasy football wide receiver to earlier this offseason.
6:19So, you know, we're talking about tight ends. You looked specifically, you know, from how is this impacting receivers?
6:26But I feel like the running back piece of the puzzle has not been discussed quite to the same level.
6:33And I understand it. It's a smaller piece of the of the pie overall.
6:38But what we are talking about at running back is how expensive they are in drafts.
6:43At least that's how a lot of people feel.
6:46And, you know, yeah, we've had good luck with running back injuries lately.
6:51There's just I think there's just more to discuss, though.
6:55So as we dig into running back trends, as far as pass catching goes, we see that target share is down a bit lately.
7:03So last year, 17.7 percent of targets went to running backs.
7:07That was the second lowest mark over the last decade, beating out just 2024, 17.1 percent.
7:12The eight years prior averaged over 19 percent was 19.3 percent.
7:16So, yeah, target share is down as far as running backs go, but overall pass volumes down as well.
7:23And so clearly there has to be some impact.
7:26Right. But what is the total impact? And one thing I noticed was targets per rush are just down its position.
7:33It's been down under 0.25 for each of the last two seasons.
7:38The eight years prior, we're sitting close to 0.3.
7:41Multiple seasons in that span above well above a 0.3.
7:44So it might sound like a small gap, but that stuff adds up.
7:49And so I think that it's clear to say like at a real macro level, things are changing at running back in
7:56terms of how pass catchers are being distributed. Yeah.
8:00And targets per rush, just so you guys can really like take that in.
8:05It's simply the amount of targets that a running back seeing versus how many rushes that he's seeing.
8:11So it's like proportion, right? So the lower the number means the more rush attempts, if you will, versus how many targets that player is seeing.
8:20How has this impacted then the fantasy relevant running backs?
8:23Yeah. So, you know, we have to isolate things to look at some sort of fantasy relevance to get the most out of this.
8:32And fantasy relevant running backs can mean a lot of different things, but I did a pretty high level look at the position.
8:40I looked for running backs who played at least eight games in a season and averaged at least 10 PPR points per game.
8:48You get around 33 of those players per season over the last decade.
8:52So I think that kind of sums up who matters, you know, and who doesn't sort of just kind of a pretty simple, clean cutoff there.
9:02And you'll see a similar dip with targets per rush as you do position wide.
9:07But we've actually seen a sub 0.24 mark each of the last two years.
9:12If you look at just the super relevant fantasy running backs.
9:16But of course, that coincides with a league wide drop in pass rate.
9:20So we can say that the most important backs for fantasy football have been seeing a decline in their ratios as well.
9:28So that kind of inherently tells us like this is, you know, relevant.
9:32It's not just sort of the throwaway backs getting, you know, fewer targets and more carries.
9:38Perhaps it's also impacting the guys who, you know, we care about weekly, you know, the top sort of like 36 players.
9:46So, you know, and one of the things here is we're seeing a similar number of backs getting to 10 PPR points per game.
9:54But they're doing it a little bit less because if they're receiving, of course, there's more to the puzzle than than just that.
10:02Which I think, again, it was like you kind of I was like peeling back layer after layer as I got here.
10:10So, you know, similar number of backs getting to that fantasy relevant cutoff.
10:14But obviously the pass catching is down. So I think there was a little more to it.
10:20Yeah, I mean, and one of the things that you sort of talked about in the newsletter that I think is really
10:28interesting and something that I think, you know, I've mentioned maybe in like passing, but there wasn't that much hard data to
10:36establish it and to talk through it. But there's, you know, the passing game specialist that we used to be able to
10:43rely on more in like zero RB builds. I mean, like Chris Thompson back in the day was like a legit viable
10:51PPR RB to option just because he was he was, you know, the PPR scammer, you know, as you noted earlier.
10:59So so what is the data say about those past game specialists?
11:03It's a real bummer because I love these guys.
11:06Like I, you know, when my on my, you know, most my longest running home league switch to full PPR and, you
11:14know, you're playing three receivers plus a flex. It's like, you know, it was the height of zero RB.
11:20I was like, cool, I'll kind of get like that anchor running back with some pass catching, but I can get to
11:28recall and or Theo Reddick or Chris Thompson or James Whiting get like 11 PPR points per game just because he's just kind of getting these check downs.
11:38And it's like, you know, where did these guys go?
11:41Right. Like, is it just sort of a temporary shift?
11:45Was I over like romanticizing how many of these guys there were?
11:49But so I dug in, you know, try to look for that hard data, as you mentioned.
11:55And so what I did was look for running backs over the last 10 years with 8.5 or fewer carries per game.
12:03So around 150 carries per 17 games. But they still managed at least 10 PPR points per game.
12:09So if I looked at some sort of ratio of pass catching, we would include it like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara types, which isn't what we wanted.
12:19So I did segment it by rushing volume here.
12:22And so that leaves 32 seasons the past decade.
12:25The guys who made multiple appearances, just a, you know, a real who's who of the types of names we're talking about,
12:33but Austin Eckler, James White, JD McKissick, Naeem Hines, Rex Burkhead, and Tariq Cohen.
12:38So exactly the types of players that we would be thinking of.
12:42But out of these 32 seasons, just seven have come over the last five years, and we didn't even have one in 2023.
12:50So we went from 5.0 instances per season of running back getting at least 10 PPR points per game on 8.5 or
12:58fewer carries per game from 2016 to 2020 to 1.4 over the last five years.
13:03So it's not fully like that these players don't exist anymore.
13:07Kenneth Gainwell got there in 2025. Austin Eckler and Zach Charbonnet did in 2024.
13:12But it's a rare archetype now. And I think, like, if you just left it there, it's like, okay, that's interesting, but it's not super helpful.
13:21Just maybe, like, you can't find the free PPR points at the end of the draft or, you know, in, like, the mid rounds.
13:29But again, it was just, like, layer after layer.
13:32I think there's more to the story. Yeah. Okay.
13:35So to sum up where we're at right now, we're not necessarily seeing fewer fantasy-relevant running backs, right?
13:42The running backs are still kind of doing their thing, scoring a similar number of points, let's say, at the threshold that we were looking at.
13:51But we are seeing fewer past game specialists, right?
13:54And so, you know, my biggest question is where is that production going?
13:58And even still, like, we are seeing this decrease in target share.
14:03But it's not, like, a 3% decrease in target share running back, right?
14:07Like, there's still, like, running backs are still being, like, the bigger issue with, like, the heavy personnel seems to be more wide receiver-driven.
14:16In terms of, like, the decline in target share.
14:19So, but running back has seen a little bit of a decline.
14:23But I guess my question is, we're seeing these fantasy-relevant running backs.
14:27We're not seeing it from these pass-catching specialists. So where is all that running back production going?
14:33Yeah. So, you know, I made a hypothesis. I was like, well, it's probably just going to, like, these featured backs who are staying healthy.
14:42And that is sort of the end of the story.
14:45I was wrong. That's not really the case. Like, yeah, when Jameer Gibbs and Bijon and Christian McCaffrey are healthy, they're going
14:53to have big target shares and eat up a lot of the overall targets.
14:58And it's partially, like, it's partly true. Yeah. You know, these guys exist.
15:03And when they do, they're, again, just accounting for a lot of the receiving.
15:07But there's been, like, a slight dip in their rushing workloads.
15:11If you look at, like, the high-volume rushers. So players averaging at least 15 carries per game.
15:17To get real, like, semantics based here. Like, the featured backs are seeing a slightly diminished roll by about 0.4 carries and 0.4 targets per game.
15:26But that also kind of just coincides. We're seeing a dip in overall play volume.
15:32You know, clock's always moving because teams are just running the ball.
15:36Yeah. More efficient passing. So I don't really want to get stuck on that point.
15:41And, again, that 0.4 carries and 0.4 targets compares 2016 to 2020, that five-year sample, and then 2021 to 2025.
15:48So I'm not really, like, ringing alarm bells there.
15:51But what we have seen is that a medium-volume running back is just getting more carries and more targets.
15:58So, you know, I had the 8.5 carry per game cutoff for pass-catching running backs.
16:03And then the high-volume sort of the featured backs getting 15-plus carries per game.
16:08That's about 250 carries over a full season. So if you think about it, like, 150 carry backs and lower, 250 carries and higher.
16:16There's a pretty, like, big, relevant, you know, now mid-range between 150 and 250 carries.
16:22And that's really the types of players we've seen benefiting.
16:25So from that 2016 to 2020 sample and from 2021 to 2025, if you just split these up into five-year buckets, basically
16:3333 relevant backs, you know, per season in each sample.
16:36Technically, slightly more recently, which is interesting. But if you imagine, like, a pie of those 33 players each season, from 2016
16:44to 2020, 13 of those on average were high-volume rushers.
16:48In the five-year, the recent sample, it's still 13.
16:51So we're not seeing more of these high-volume rushers getting there.
16:55The low-volume rushers, as we already mentioned, went from five per season to 1.4 per season.
17:00So it basically just leaves the medium-volume guys who went up from about 15 to about 19 per season.
17:07So it's not, like, groundbreaking. It's not like, hey, the only players who are relevant are, like, these weird, you know, you
17:15have to have exactly 200 carries per season. That's not what it is.
17:19But what I think is interesting is that we're not just seeing it funneled to the featured players, which you could probably
17:27dismiss as, like, yeah, they're healthier, so they're just seeing bigger workloads.
17:31It seems like there's a pretty concentrated effort or just a shift in philosophy where maybe you can't really get on the
17:39field if all you can do is catch the ball.
17:42As personnels are getting heavier, you probably need to be able to handle 10, 12 carries a game and get, like, you
17:50know, two, three, four targets per game. So as you continue to think about this, you kind of will see the types
17:58of players who are more relevant and why we might not have some of the, frankly, smaller, shiftier, you know, PPR running backs still being relevant today.
18:07For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters.
18:11Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start.
18:14Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks.
18:24If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required.
18:28Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely
18:36active ulcerative colitis, serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur.
18:43Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine.
18:51Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today.
18:54Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. Lows, no, Sundays are for football.
18:59So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Bounty and Swiffer cleaning products and more.
19:09Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax and enjoy the game.
19:15Shop in store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL.
19:22Do you think that this means, because look, we just did the draft guide and spoiler alert, a lot of the trends
19:29that we look for in our ADP analysis leans towards, hey, the market is not factoring in pass catching nearly enough with these running backs.
19:38Therefore, go after these running backs that had good previous season target shares, good previous season yards per outrun rates.
19:45Do you think that that no longer matters because this RB2 group is seeing such a boost in overall volume and they're becoming more relevant?
19:54Or do you think it matters more because receiving is just not as easy to come by anymore with some of these later round guys?
20:03Yeah, it's the complete wrong takeaway to walk away from something like this and say that receiving matters less.
20:09It matters just as much, if not more, but just in a different way than we've kind of grown used to.
20:17So I'm going to shout out our boy, Jim Sonis here.
20:20Yeah. But he's my longtime podcast co-host and he used a metric.
20:25I mean, it's pretty simple metric, but he just called it adjusted opportunities.
20:29And what he did with adjusted opportunities was take a player's carries at running back and their targets and multiply their targets
20:37by X so that a player's workload kind of actually, you know, accounted for, you know, average fantasy points.
20:44So if you were on a half PPR site, it's about double.
20:48You would double players targets compared to his carry.
20:51But in PPR leagues, that ratio is basically 2.5.
20:54So since 2016, the average running back carry has been worth about 0.6 fantasy points.
20:59But the average target across the position is like up over 1.5.
21:03I mean, you just think about like catch rates like 75%, right?
21:08You get a target, you got like 75% chance to get a PPR point, which is better than a carry.
21:15Now, of course, you're not yards and plus the touchdown.
21:18Yes, exactly. Right. So it's like at a baseline, it's like, yeah, targets are really valuable for especially at running back in terms of just getting a point.
21:28But it's not about find the guys who get more targets than carries.
21:33Like that's never really the case. You want carries, but you also want the target.
21:38So and we know that like that's just how a traditional workload goes.
21:42But when you contextualize the workloads, you see how valuable targets still are at running back.
21:48And that's really starting to impact the way because again, that the this simple thought process of how how valuable a target
21:56is at running back is why players like Austin Eckler and Chris Thompson could just get their way to points without having the carries.
22:04Because, you know, one carry is equal to four targets or whatever.
22:08So this is really starting to take shape for how I'm looking at 2026.
22:13Yeah. How is it impacting your draft strategy in general?
22:17I mean, I would imagine you're sitting here and you might not have as easy of a time getting late round running backs.
22:25Like, is that is that sort of the way that you're you're viewing this?
22:30So I think the real shift here for me is there are still a few guys who I think fit.
22:37I'll start here. I think there are a few guys who fit the historical mold of a PPR specialist players who might
22:44not crack 150 carries, but still have good receiving roles.
22:48Rashad White is the first one that comes to mind.
22:51Yeah. Yeah. He could be like the guy, you know, who just again, PPR scams his way to like a relevant season without getting a ton of carries.
23:01Alvin Kamara, as we know, we don't really know, but he could be someone who gets he could, you know, he could be top top 10 in targets.
23:11We don't know because Travis Etienne, I think he's a viable pass catcher, but he's I think his role as a pass
23:19catcher is always overstated, which is interesting. Kenneth Gainwell again, RJ Harvey.
23:23There's like a path for Ty J. I feel like Ty J.
23:27Spears in the past would have been such an obvious he's going to get three, four catches a game, you know, that kind of thing.
23:36But we're past the point where Dylan Samson types are going to have their their opportunity to get seven targets a game,
23:43just kind of not how it works. Yeah. So it's not that like it's not that nobody with this archetype can be fantasy relevant.
23:52I think it's just a shorter list than we're used to historically.
23:56And what this really does is puts the spotlight on those backs who are projected more for like 200 carries.
24:03Who have receiving juice. I think the easiest player to think about is Jalen Warren, whereas Jalen Warren probably historically would have been.
24:11In the PPR merchant like bucket, but because he's able to handle carries, he is a relevant player.
24:17He's he's been at 149, 120 and then 211 carries over his last three seasons.
24:23I think if he weren't if he was not able to handle 200 carries, he would just sort of get phased out.
24:30Yeah. And whenever you extrapolate that kind of thought process, you see more names and Aaron Jones type.
24:37It doesn't seem like he's just set for massive rushing volume, but we know he can handle 10, 12, 14 carries if he needs to.
24:45Ramondre Stevenson, I'll throw a Travion Henderson in there, Chuba Hubbard.
24:49I think that like another way to sum this up other than the Jalen Warren archetype is that historically I would have
24:57been out on having Travion and Ramondre together. But this is like a new balanced workload that is leading to relevant seasons
25:05when it comes to pass catching running backs, because they both can handle carries and targets.
25:10And so one thing I also want to point out here is any any zero RB truthers who are like, well, we've
25:18been running hot with running back injuries. These are also the types of players who should be able to handle featured workloads if somebody else gets hurt.
25:27I think that's like I think that is a huge piece of this puzzle that we're probably not.
25:34If you look if you look team by team, go down the depth chart.
25:39You're probably not seeing the amount of if the starter is hurt, they're going to give this player, you know, the two
25:46down work and somebody else the pass catching work.
25:50You know, I just don't think there's a lot of those scenarios.
25:54I think it's if you don't have both, you're probably not going to see the field as much because personnel is getting heavier overall.
26:02So this take this makes players like Camp Scadaboo really interesting.
26:06He's not going to be the highest volume pass catcher, but he has the juice and he can handle workloads.
26:13Chase Brown. I know you're you know, you've been high on Chase Brown.
26:18Yeah, the emerging is like the type of player who he doesn't have the full Christian McCaffrey workload, but he's so far
26:25in a way better of a profile than someone who just has like the two down work.
26:31And so if you on the flip side, like a Jadarian Price, J.K.
26:36Dobbins, David Montgomery, these guys probably don't have that in their range of outcomes.
26:41And so it's not that like you can just get Woody Marks instead of David Montgomery and replace his workload.
26:48It's more that there are players who have that they have to have this rushing, I think, nowadays to be on the
26:55field in order to have the pass catching that they need.
26:59So I think the like the biggest takeaway is those middle like the middle round guys with sort of ambiguous situations or not feature roles.
27:08They're actually getting more relevant because it's such as it's a it's a valuable archetype to be able to handle like a mini featured back role.
27:17Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. And I also think that number one, this is part of the reason that we've
27:25seen, you know, aside from, you know, I do think that running back injury rates have run a little bit hot, but
27:32I don't think that that's the the soul. Like you said, the reason that we can look at how predictive and how
27:40strong running back has been the last couple of years and just kind of leave it at that.
27:46I definitely kind of overrated that a little bit last year.
27:50But then, you know, when thinking about it more and seeing trends and thinking about it from through this lens, I don't
27:58think that that's the only reason why we should be going or, you know, that that that we've seen what we've seen with running back.
28:07But then on top of that, like I think that running back has just become as a result of all of this, right?
28:15Like there's there's a drop off that happens, but instead of it happening at the dead zone, it's happening later, right?
28:22It's happening not quite at the dead zone. It's it's we're not getting the players that we were able to necessarily later back in the day.
28:31And now all of a sudden that changes your draft strategy because, you know, if there are only a handful of guys
28:39that we can really truly feel great about late, right?
28:42Then that means that you have to be the team that gets that player.
28:47And that's really hard to bank on when you're in round one, round two and round three.
28:53And you're deciding if you want to go running back or not, which is why at the very least, I think you
29:01need a running back in the first couple of rounds.
29:05Like I just I it's it's a lot more difficult to go zero RB in this kind of environment.
29:11And then the last thing I want to throw out there, the thing that I love about this most and love the
29:19way that the NFL has sort of moved and shifted and what it means for running back is that the evaluation of
29:27the running back himself is becoming more important in a way because you really need to find the running back.
29:34Like you said, that's almost like a mini bell cow that's able to handle a decent amount of work, but also handle a decent amount through the air.
29:43Right. As opposed to, oh, he's just a passing game specialist.
29:47Like he can find a role somewhere or, you know, he's just an early down bruiser.
29:53We can just fade him no matter what. There's so many more tweeners that we have to be a little bit more
30:01creative with how we're evaluating these these running backs.
30:04And to me, that allows us who are degenerates with this stuff and just really, really detail oriented with it to spot
30:11interesting players that maybe we otherwise wouldn't have drafted, you know?
30:15And so I think it's all incredibly interesting. And I hope people who listen to this thought the same and are walking
30:23away, you know, looking at the running back position a little bit differently.
30:27But Brandon, thank you again for hopping on. Let everyone know where they can find you and the good stuff you're doing
30:35at this company called Late Round Fantasy Football. Yeah, I'm on Twitter at Godula13, on Blue Sky at Godula.
30:42And yeah, everything I do is you can find it on lateround.com.
30:46Sign up for the newsletter. I mean, the reason I'm here is because I did a newsletter on this deep dive.
30:53It's nice to have a visual to all this stuff.
30:57But yeah, everything I'm doing, lateround.com. Yeah, I don't even need to repeat much or say much because Brandon already said it.
31:05Check out lateround.com. Make sure you pre-ordered the draft guide that is launching on July 10th.
31:10So it'll be out on Friday. And if you pre-ordered, probably be out, honestly, on Thursday evening, as I usually do, you know, night before.
31:19So check it out, lateround.com. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.
31:23Welcome to Alaska Airlines. We're now flying to London.
31:26So enjoy a cup of tea in your live flat suite and get ready to experience all London has to offer.
31:33Lie back, relax, and let your dreams take flight.
31:36Welcome to Alaska Airlines. Zach, nice vacation spot. But without T-Mobile 5G home internet, it's scary here.
31:42Don't open it. Relax. I ordered T-Mobile 5G home internet with same-day delivery powered by DoorDash.
31:48Nothing to be afraid of. We're saved. Get T-Mobile 5G home internet delivered the same day.
31:54Powered by DoorDash. Just 35 bucks a month with auto pay and a voice line.
31:59Plus taxes and fees. Same-day delivery for most internet-eligible customers.
32:02See if it's an option during checkout. This is an iHeart podcast.
32:07Guaranteed human. This is an iHeart podcast.
