Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Elite Tight End or Bust?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 19 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 24, 2026
Published
Wed, June 24, 2026
16
Player insights
8
Players mentioned
Topics
Malik WillisJalen HurtsGreg DulcichJonah ColemanMalik WashingtonDak PrescottJ.K. DobbinsRJ Harvey
Player analysis
Player insights
Dak Prescott
NegativeValue0:15
Prescott's ADP is inflated due to stacking gravity with George Pickens and CD Lamb, but Jalen Hurts objectively has a higher ceiling and is a better fantasy asset.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
NegativeRole0:07
Dulcich is the top drafted player for Miami outside of Devon H, which is concerning given the weak offensive personnel around him.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:10
Dulcich has moved up two rounds since the start of the season and is the easy receiver to pair with Malik Willis in the Miami stack.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
PositiveBust0:17
Dobbins had only a 4% target share last year and has durability concerns, making him less appealing than Coleman in full PPR on DraftKings.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue0:13
Hurts is undervalued and you can stack him flexibly without needing Devante Smith, with options like Dallas Goddard, Dontavian Wicks, and Eli Stowers available late.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:13
Over the last five years as a starter, Hurts has averaged 20+ PPG in all but one season, and even last year with Kevin Petulo he was at nearly 19 PPG and ranked 8th in QB scoring.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:14
Hurts gets new weapons in Makai Lemon and Dontavian Wicks, a new offensive coordinator, and Market Score ranks him #2 overall, indicating he's a value at current ADP.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveValue0:17
Coleman's ADP has dropped since the draft opened and he's consistently available in round 15, making him a good value pick in a good offense.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:17
Coleman is a do-it-all back who can back up both JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey, and there's a genuine possibility he carves out a role in the Denver backfield with all three healthy.
Insight pageMalik Washington
NegativeValue0:11
Washington is up 14 spots and the market is overly bullish on him being the guy, but the opportunity cost is not insignificant for a player who hasn't really done anything since entering the NFL.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:12
Washington is a good yak guy but not a traditional perimeter or X receiver that will find a consistent place in the offense.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveProjection0:06
Willis has averaged 8.5 rushing points per game over six starts, matching Lamar Jackson's career rushing average, and 27 QB seasons with 7+ rushing PPG have only had 4 rank outside the top 10 in total QB scoring.
Insight pageNegativeBust0:06
There is concern Willis could lose his job late in the season similar to a Justin Fields situation, and the Miami offense is frighteningly bad from a personnel standpoint.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:09
Willis's ADP is still fairly low given where quarterbacks are going, and with DraftKings' two extra rounds, you can build multiple QB stacks that capture his rushing upside alongside higher-tier QBs.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:10
Willis is the first player from the Miami stack to go off the board in round 11, so he won't be affected by market pressure from receivers and Dulcich being drafted later.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveRole0:17
Harvey is a legit threat as a pass catcher but not as a rusher, with bottom-tiered rushing yards over expected per rush last year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Bro, from the show last night to this drive, why is it never chill?
0:06Cause this is our life. Backstage, on the road, it's loud, messy, real.
0:09And that's the best part. Whole crew, no plan, just moving.
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0:23Power. Yeah, you can tell. 2026 Nissan Rogue, built for what really happens.
0:27For J.D. Power 2025 US Initial Quality Study Award information, visit JDPower.com slash awards.
0:31Awards based on 2025 model year, newer models may be shown.
0:34If you've been sitting on a business idea for a while, consider this your sign to do something with it.
0:39You can even make it official today by creating a website with Wix Harmony.
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0:50It's your website, your call. Try it at Wix.com slash Harmony.
0:53That's Wix.com slash Harmony. Rich man, how was your Father's Day?
0:56Father's Day was great. Super chill. Went to the community pool.
0:59Had a nice day. Couldn't be happy. What about you?
1:02It was good. My daughter had a dance competition.
1:05She was in nationals. They got second place in her group, in her category.
1:08So props to her. We got back from that competition and I got a present for my son, who's three.
1:14It was one of those laminated sheets that you answer questions based on what their teachers are asking about your dad.
1:19And so, you know, like my dad's name is, and he said daddy for that particular question.
1:24And then one of the questions was, my dad is blank years old.
1:28And so, you know, usually when kids answer that, they could say, oh, my dad's 110 years old.
1:32And then it's funny because you know they have no concept of age.
1:36Or my dad's eight years old and they have no idea what's going on.
1:40But instead, I think that he gave the most insulting answer you could possibly give.
1:44He said 52. I'm JJ. And over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
1:50And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie contest, taking home $20,000.
1:55Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
2:00And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
2:03So even if you consider me a best ball bro, this could be your year.
2:07This could be the year that you officially become a best ball bro.
2:11This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't
2:17miss offer on their biggest best ball contest ever.
2:19$20 million in total prizes. It's draft one, get one.
2:22Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
2:27Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
2:31Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
2:36Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
2:40The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
2:43I'm JJ Zacharysen, joined as always by Rich Ryan.
2:46Rich, what's going on, buddy? Doing good. It's funny.
2:48When you were workshopping that cold open, I let you know this story.
2:52When I was younger and my mom was turning 40, my dad told me as a joke that she was turning 50.
2:58And of course, me, I'm talking to all my friends.
3:01They're telling their parents. So for the next week or so, every parent is going up to my mom.
3:06They're like, Doreen, you look great. Hey, you look fantastic.
3:08Such a mean joke about my dad. Yeah. I mean, like 52 is like the perfect age where it's believable.
3:14Right. Where like you could, you could understand why someone would be 52 with a three year old.
3:19Like that's not an totally uncommon thing, but I'm not, I'm not that old.
3:22Okay. I know some people on Twitter, I've revealed my age before in the past.
3:27I'm 38 for the record, everybody, but I've revealed my age before in the past.
3:31And people on Twitter have been like, oh man, like some people thought that I was like maybe early thirties or something,
3:37but then randomly people were like, oh, I thought you were like in your mid fifties and such.
3:41And I'm like, do I really come across that way?
3:44Do I really present myself as a, as a, a true, true middle-aged man?
3:48I mean, don't answer that question. Actually, you probably don't want to answer that.
3:52I think it's the, I think it's the sleeping stuff.
3:54You know, the East coast dad stuff that I complain about.
3:57For sure. You guys got to stay up late for, for every sporting event.
4:01But yeah, when I, when I look in the mirror, I still see the young self.
4:06I more often than not. Now I'm starting to see the older guy, the dad, the guy that's going to be like
4:12you turning 40 in a couple of years, but I still squint and see the young kid that has a lot of heart and a lot of energy.
4:19I don't feel different than I did. I genuinely like, like late thirties or like, like, like, you know how they felt
4:25last generation about the late twenties, in my opinion, you know, like every generation gets younger.
4:29Or go look at pictures of your grandparents when they were like 56 years old.
4:34They look like they're, they're 190. It's, it's bizarre.
4:36I don't understand how or why that happens. Like I look at my, my dad right now, my dad's in his late
4:42seventies and I look at him right now and I'm like, man, he's in really great shape.
4:47He looks like, like if my grandparents were like when they were that same age, when they were in their late seventies,
4:52they look like they were, they were on their deathbed.
4:55Like, it's just, it's just crazy how each generation just keeps getting younger and younger.
4:59And hopefully we, uh, you know, us, us millennials continue that.
5:02It is true. There's a famous roster photo or headshots of like a 91 Penn state team that always pops up on my feed, maybe monthly.
5:09And every single dude on that team looks 45.
5:12Like these guys playing college football. You know, there's like old high school videos that they'll put, put on like social media.
5:18Sometimes you like see like the, the late eighties, early nineties.
5:21I'm like, why is there a 33 year old?
5:23That's in the senior in high school. This doesn't make any sense to me.
5:27Yeah. Yeah. Or, or basically like any, any TV show or movie from back then, all the kids look so much older.
5:33Anyway, we got to talk a little best ball today.
5:36My plan is to talk about my top exposures right now.
5:39A couple of them at each position through 28 milli drafts.
5:42How many, uh, how many milli drafts have you done so far?
5:45I haven't done a single milli yet. I've just been sick into the $3, uh, 1 million prize pool guarantee.
5:50Uh, but I'm, I'm up above a dozen. I'm pushing, I'm getting towards, uh, I think 20 drafts in that.
5:56So I'm, I'm holding off my millies and just firing the $3 for now.
5:59Yeah. I had a lot of slows that I had entered, uh, right after the NFL drafts, but I'm only through 28 milli drafts.
6:06Uh, obviously I'm going to be max entering some through 28.
6:09I think overall I'm at about like post draft.
6:11I'm at about 110 or so drafts that are either ongoing.
6:14Or ongoing or completed. Uh, but like I said, I'm going to go through some of my top exposures.
6:20I guess I'll just kick it off at quarterback real quick.
6:22And I'm going to talk about Malik Willis. Now I do think that there's some concern maybe about him losing his job late in the season.
6:30Like maybe that would happen and they would go down that path.
6:33Like a, you know, cover your ears rich, like a Justin Fields type situation, right?
6:37Where there's some hope that this, cause it's not like the most extreme contract in the world for, for Malik Willis.
6:43It's not like they're like locked in for six years and they have to play him necessarily.
6:47So I do think that there's like maybe some risk that Willis is just not it.
6:52And you know, they end up benching him and they want to see what other quarterbacks can do within that offense.
6:57And I mean, look, it's a frighteningly bad offense from a personnel standpoint, right?
7:01Like it's Devon H and then it's the fact that, that, uh, we're talking about Greg Dolcich as their top drafted player outside of H and is frightening.
7:09Right. So I, I get, I get the downside risk with Willis for sure, but I think the upside risk is similar
7:15to what we saw or the upside potential is similar to like, like you can use Justin Fields if you want as
7:21an example where like, yeah, you need the passing numbers to really elevate the, the rushing stuff to be like super relevant
7:26fantasy, but Fields still could give you a very usable QB one production, you know, when he was starting.
7:32So I have some notes here about what Willis has done in a small sample.
7:36He's had six starts. He's averaged eight and a half points per game via rushing in those starts.
7:41Now for context, even if you remove last year's season from Lamar Jackson, where he was under that four point per game
7:47mark via rushing, he's been at about eight points per game throughout his career.
7:50Lamar Jackson has. So in our very limited sample, six starts of Malik Willis, he's given you the same number of rushing
7:56points per game as Lamar Jackson has. Now look, the thing with Lamar that I think just still doesn't get talked about enough.
8:03And even Josh Allen to, you know, you could, you could lump him in there, but Lamar is obviously looked at as
8:08like, oh, he's a cheat code in fantasy because he runs the ball so well.
8:13Right. And like, that's, that's obviously a great floor and upside play, but Lamar Jackson has consistently beaten touchdown rate odds.
8:18And has been a really efficient thrower in terms of what we look for from a fantasy football perspective, which is, you
8:24know, being able to, to throw for touchdowns and not just run for them.
8:28Right. And so I think that we have to keep that in mind with like a Malik Willis is that yes.
8:34If you look at 27 quarterback seasons since 2011, where, where they had seven or more PPR points per game, or you
8:40don't say PPR, you know, they're not catching many passes, but points per game via rushing only four of those 27 seasons ranked outside the top 10.
8:47And fantasy scoring at quarterback and points per game.
8:49So you have 27 quarterback seasons where the quarterback had seven or more points per game via rushing Malik Willis has been
8:55an eight and a half throughout his, his brief, you know, six starts only four of those 27 have ranked outside the
9:01top 10 in points per game, which is crazy.
9:04But if you look at the players who didn't, it's like the, the Anthony Richardson type, right?
9:08Where, where they can get it done on the ground, but their passing is very questionable.
9:13That's a very real outcome for Malik Willis. And I understand that in drafting him and taking that on, but I think
9:19his ADP is still fairly low given where these quarterbacks are going right now.
9:22And then on top of that, the nice part on draft Kings with having those two extra rounds, it's a lot easier to make three quarterback builds.
9:30And so if you're making a three QB build, you can get Malik Willis on top of maybe, you know, two guys
9:36that you get in round nine and 10 or Malik Willis with a CJ Stroud and then like a Jalen Hurts or something like that.
9:43And all of a sudden you have a pretty good trio where there is a lot of that upside that you can capture with Malik Willis's legs.
9:50So because of all of that, I am drafting a lot of Malik Willis.
9:54I don't know where this will, will finish and stand, but he's also one of those guys where if you miss out
10:00on that quarterback run, he's, he's sitting there very often as an easy player to get.
10:04And Malik Willis won't be affected as much by that market pressure because he is the first person of the stack that's
10:10going off the board in round 11, right? The receivers, Washington going off in 14, then Dulcich in 15, and the rest
10:16of the guys are in the final rounds of the draft.
10:19So there aren't going to be players likely there aren't going to be players who have drafted receivers on Miami and then
10:25need to connect the dot with that stack that are, that are pushing that pressure up.
10:29So he should just chill in that round 11 range.
10:32What I was going to ask you is we've seen Greg, Greg Dulcich move.
10:36He's up two rounds since we started potting and we've, we've spoken about him.
10:39Are there any, which of, if any of these Miami receivers, are you throwing darts at to complete the stack?
10:45Or is it just Dulcich right now? No, I mean, like I've thrown random darts at other guys.
10:50I started coming in pretty hot with Jalen Tolbert at the beginning of the, of the, you know, the, the summer.
10:55I haven't really been doing that as frequently because I actually think there's a chance that they just don't want to use
11:01him and maybe even like cut him if they just really like the depth that they have.
11:06I mean, there's a lot of just random directions that you can go in, you know, Kevin Coleman, even their slot, their
11:12rookie slot guy who does that model actually liked a decent bit versus what, where the consensus had him.
11:17But you know, he's kind of limited just as a slot player.
11:20I think he's only going to be a slot player at the NFL level.
11:24You know, you could, I haven't really drafted much Caleb Douglas just because I'm not that big of a fan of his talent in that profile.
11:31So it's really just sprinkling in the wide receivers.
11:34I think Dulcich is the easy one to go to.
11:36I haven't drafted a ton of Malik Washington either, just because I think the market it's like odd that the market is
11:42so bullish on him being like the guy when the opportunity cost and getting him is actually not insignificant.
11:48I mean, it's not significant, you know, in the grand scheme, but it's not insignificant when you're talking about Malik freaking Washington
11:53who hasn't really done anything since he entered the NFL.
11:56Right. So, you know, I understand why he would be the top wide receiver drafted, you know, from Miami, but I don't
12:02understand why it would be such a massive gap as it is right now.
12:06Right now it's like five or six rounds, you know, in those in those later parts of the draft.
12:11So, and I think you can go naked Malik Willis if you want to, right, where he, I mean, I just showed
12:17you his point per game rushing numbers. Like he's very capable of just scoring a lot of points and maybe not bringing
12:23along one of the wide receivers or even Greg Dulcich with him.
12:26Yeah. Malik Washington up 14 spots since we've started this summer.
12:29People in love with the presumed, I guess, you are one, but yeah.
12:33I mean, there's been some, there's been some positive coach speak and talk about Malik Washington, but I don't know.
12:38To me, I don't want to like get so bullish on a player that just really hasn't proven anything.
12:43I didn't mind him as a prospect. I think he's a good yak guy.
12:47I don't think that he's like the most traditional, you know, perimeter wide receiver or X guy that we're going to rely
12:53on or that, that can find a really consistent place in that offense.
12:57So he just like, he's fine, but I'm not going to be overweight.
13:00Let's move to another quarterback, another mobile fella up in Philadelphia.
13:03Fly Eagles fly. Jalen hurts. Yeah. I love where Jalen hurts goes in these drafts.
13:07I think he's just really undervalued. You can even go naked and not get Devante Smith, especially Makai lemon falling recently in some of these drafts.
13:14Like it's, it's, you can even, you know, stack him.
13:17If you get hurts, you know, there's Dallas Goddard.
13:19There's Dontavian Wicks at the end of drafts that you can, you can go with obviously Eli Stowers.
13:24So I like hurts from the standpoint of like, you can be flexible.
13:28You don't absolutely need to. And obviously like I had a team last night that I drafted and I drafted Devante Smith and then I got Jalen hurts.
13:35So I just got the go-to stack, but I don't think you have to have Devante Smith over the last five years.
13:41As a starter, Jalen hurts his average 20 or more points per game in all but one season.
13:46That was last year with Kevin Petulo, uh, where he was almost at 19 points per game, which is still not that bad.
13:52That's standard scoring. That's not even drafting scoring. He's still ranked eighth last year though, in points per game.
13:58Like he still wasn't like horrific last year as a fantasy quarterback.
14:01You don't have AJ Brown anymore. I get it, but you get Makai lemon.
14:05You have Dontavian Wicks. You have Eli Stowers. You have a new offensive coordinator.
14:08And then the other thing to point out is what I talked about on the market score episode yesterday, which is that
14:14market score loves Jalen hurts like right now. So market score, if you guys don't know market score is a metric that,
14:20that Brandon Godula and I created where we're looking at average draft position.
14:24And we're looking at other inputs from the previous season to basically give a score of zero to a hundred for a player.
14:30And then you can essentially rank players that way.
14:33If you want to just based on their overall scores and Jalen hurts right now is number two in markets where he's right above, barely above Lamar.
14:40Jackson, but he's above Lamar Jackson. That's not how I'm ranking guys, but it is a, it is additional context is to,
14:46you know, uh, understanding player evaluation and how we should feel about certain players.
14:50So market score really likes Jalen hurts, which, which means it's taking ADP.
14:53It's looking at all these predictive metrics around ADP to help predict how well this player is going to perform this year.
14:59And it's saying Jalen hurts is a value right now.
15:02So I think he's just undervalued. Uh, it's crazy seeing some of these play like Dak Prescott went above him in the,
15:08in the draft I did yesterday, uh, which I get from the standpoint of stacking.
15:12And that's why that's happening because you have multiple inputs in the early rounds with George Pickens and CD lamb at either
15:18end of the draft too, which, which makes it even more of like this, this game of chicken.
15:23With those two teams, because the CD lamb manager might even reach for Dak and round six, right?
15:28Because like at the beginning of round six with CD lamb going at the end of round one, but then if he
15:34doesn't, or if that, if that drafter doesn't, then you get into that six, seven turn.
15:38And the George Pickens manager sitting there and they're saying, I got to get Dak now.
15:42Cause he's not going to fall to the eighth.
15:45Right? Right. So all that's doing is creating Dak Prescott's ADP to be inflated.
15:49Right. And it's nothing against Dak. He's fine. But Jalen hurts objectively as a higher ceiling than Dak Prescott, like objectively, right?
15:54He's objectively a better fantasy asset than Dak Prescott is.
15:57So it, from, from that perspective, this is what we were talking about.
16:01I mean, we talked about it for like a year and a half now it feels like, but this is why quarterback
16:07ADP can get so funky and weird and best ball.
16:09And it's so different in season long where we're going to sit here and be like, yeah, we're, we're, we're going to draft Jalen hurts.
16:16We're not even going to care about stacking in our, in our home leagues and stuff.
16:21But you know, hopefully, well, hopefully for our benefit, the best ball ADP transfers over to season long because then we'll, we'll
16:26be able to get some of these quarterback values.
16:29But I don't think that's going to happen the same way.
16:32So this is a really good way to get exposure to some of these early round guys.
16:36Yeah. The gravity of stacking just, it's a thing, right?
16:39It, these quarterbacks, because of the selections that have been made previously, they get pulled into that direction.
16:44And like you said, it's, it's very interesting when there's two pieces, we see this with Cincinnati as well, where there's two
16:50guys competing for fulfilling that stack later on, which creates this interesting pressure as to when that player comes off the board.
16:56Let's move the running back. Let's go to Denver.
16:58Let's go to Jonah Coleman. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I just feel like I'm kind of on an Island with Jonah Coleman
17:04at this point, because I think his ADP has dropped since, since the draft.
17:08So since, since the Millie opened and I feel, like I said, I feel like I'm kind of on an Island because
17:14I see a lot of people who are JK Dobbins bros and RJ Harvey bros, but there's not many Jonah Coleman bros.
17:20And it's not to say that I think Coleman's amazing in that, you know, I'm, I'm purely on team Coleman.
17:26I've sprinkled in more RJ Harvey, but I will say I'm not drafting much JK Dobbins.
17:30I just don't get the allure, especially on draft Kings where it's full PPR.
17:34I don't get the allure of JK Dobbins that much when, you know, he's had injury history.
17:38When you know that Jonah Coleman is stepping in, I think they drafted Coleman.
17:42I've said this all along. I think they drafted Coleman because he can kind of back up both players in this backfield.
17:48Like he's a, he's a do it all back.
17:51Who's just good enough at, at pass catcher. He's good enough in pass protection.
17:54He's good enough at the early down stuff in between the tackles and he's big and he can play the goal line role too.
18:01So like he's good enough at all of these things that number one, he can back those guys up.
18:06But number two, I also think there's a real genuine possibility that he just carves out a role in the Denver backfield
18:12that he Jonah Coleman sees some sort of backfield share with those guys being healthy.
18:16RJ Harvey, he's a legit threat as a pass catcher, but not so much as a rusher, just based on what we
18:22saw last year with his bottom tiered rushing yards over expected per rush.
18:25JK Dobbins, like I said, 4% target share last year for JK Dobbins and there's durability concerns.
18:30So Coleman being a do it all back, it's a good offense that you're attaching him to.
18:35I just think he's a good pick right now and you're getting, I'm getting him in round 15 consistently now.
18:40And that I thought he was going to rise.
18:43Honestly, I thought getting him in round 14 after the draft was, was, I thought he would get to like round 12 and he just hasn't.
18:50There's been some positive favorable reports with him too, which is another reason why I'm surprised there hasn't been that much movement with Jonah Coleman.
18:56I'm sure people in the comments are going to give me a reason as to why this is happening and why I'm a moron.
19:03But I do think that there's a lot of outs for Jonah Coleman to be a useful piece in best ball this year.
19:09Yeah. Sometimes we've seen this time and time again.
19:12Sometimes just going with the cheapest option in an ambiguous situation oftentimes is a pretty solid strategy, right?
19:16You're, you're getting the cost off. And as we see throughout the summer, which of these Denver running backs could benefit the
19:22most from some sort of buzz or news or injury in the summer?
19:26It's most likely Jonah Coleman. Cause like how high could RJ Harvey and JK Gobbins reasonably go?
19:31I don't think it could be much higher than where they're going already.
19:34RJ Harvey's dealing with an injury too. Like there's, there's that that's, that's going on.
19:38And like, like I do think that we're doing ourselves a disservice when we lump together day three picks and day three
19:44draft capital is all the same because like, oh, he was like top one 10 Jonah Coleman.
19:49He was an early fourth round pick. That is not that much different than a third round pick from a, from a draft capital and an investment standpoint.
19:56And for whatever reason, like people, you know, I think that part of it is like people like me and it's our
20:02faults because when we communicate these ideas, we lump these guys together and say, oh, he's a day three pick, et cetera, et cetera.
20:09But it's a gradient. It's the same way that I view average draft position and like all the threshold stuff that I
20:15work on, on the draft guide where, you know, I bucket these players up in the top 18 wide receivers and then,
20:21you know, wide receiver 19 to 42 to represent the middle rounds.
20:24And each of those groups, there's different trends that, that we look for to see if a player is going to bust
20:30or if they're going to break out realistically though.
20:32If you're at the low end of, if you're, if you're wide receiver 18, if you're like Ted O'Reilly McMillan right now,
20:38your trends, yes, you might get bucketed in with the top 18 guys.
20:42The trends in the, in the next group matter just as much as the one in that group, right?
20:47Like it's, it's similar with the, with, with draft capital and not having these harsh cutoffs because a sixth round running back
20:53is not the same at all as a 110th or 108th or whatever Jonah Coleman was overall running back.
20:58Jonah Coleman's ADP or draft capital is not that far off from like what Caleb Johnson was last year.
21:03Now I know he busted of course, but like it's, it's not as bad of draft capital as you think.
21:09And like Bashaw Tootin was a, was a fourth rounder last year.
21:12Right. And, and, and people were looking at him a little bit more favorably than they're looking at Jonah Coleman.
21:17So I'm not, I actually think that like the fourth round for running backs in today's game is sort of like what
21:23it was in the third round, maybe like five or six years ago.
21:27Moving out West a little bit further in my backyard training in Costa Mesa.
21:31It's Keaton Mitchell of the Los Angeles charters. This is not an anti Amarian Hampton stance.
21:35I like Hampton. This is just a pro Keaton Mitchell pro chargers situation stance.
21:39I love the chargers offense this year. I don't care how chalky that is.
21:43I don't care if everyone's backing them. They should be good offensively this year.
21:46Quinton Johnson has seen like a crit by the way, as an aside, Quinton Johnson saw like a two round rise in ADP out of nowhere.
21:53The last like two weeks or week and a half.
21:56I love drafting the, the, the chargers offense have a lot of everybody.
22:00Quinton Johnston. Like I said, he's a little bit high right now, so I haven't been getting as much as him, but I'm still drafting him.
22:07But with Keaton Mitchell, I just think he's like the perfect best ball guy where yes, I don't like, I do think
22:13that it being a full PPR platform, you know, I don't think he's going to catch a ton of passes.
22:18Cause it's never really been his game necessarily, but at the same time, Mike McDaniel with speed is just check Mark, right?
22:24Like we've seen it with Devon H in Devon H in, obviously very good.
22:28And he's a much more prolific runner and rusher than Keaton Mitchell has been.
22:32Even if you look back at, at, you know, collegiate numbers and such, I do think that Mitchell brings that big playability.
22:38You get Slater and all back on the offensive line.
22:40I think the run game is going to be a lot better than it was last year, just based on that.
22:46And he's going to have some role on that team.
22:49Like there's going to be some usage for Keaton Mitchell and he has the big playability because of that speed.
22:54So you will get spiked weeks from Keaton Mitchell and best ball.
22:57And that's part of the reason why I've been drafting him as much as I have.
23:02I think right now he's my highest roster running back.
23:04The arrow is pointing up right now in terms of ADP for every single member, almost every single member of the Los Angeles chargers.
23:11Hampton's up two spots, lads up two spots. Like you said, Quinton Johnson's up 17 and a half spots since we started doing this.
23:17Heaton Mitchell's up nine. Trey Harris is up 19.4.
23:20I think people are starting. This is the, the meme of the dumb guy and the genius who have the obvious thought
23:26of, Hey, maybe Mike McDaniel is going to be awesome.
23:29And the guy in the middle, like, Oh, the praise is too much.
23:32We can't do it. But like Mike McDaniel is just that guy.
23:35Like he's going to have a very strong impact on this offense.
23:39I've also had this thought about the current landscape of fantasy football, where I believe that this spike wouldn't have been happening
23:45until August five or six, seven years ago. Right.
23:47Within the landscape, not necessarily the best ball landscape, but like just the fantasy landscape in general.
23:52Like we were, there was a delay. There was like a period of time where you could get these players and these
23:58obviously upgraded situations a lot cheaper than what's happening right now.
24:01And we've talked about this plenty, you know, over the last couple of weeks of just like, I think the market's sharper
24:06in the way they're looking at running backs in general.
24:09You know, like the fact that Travion Henderson and Ramondre Stevenson, which by the way, honorable mentions for running back Ramondre Stevenson
24:15and Chase Brown are two guys that I've, I've drafted a decent amount of.
24:19But Ramondre Stevenson going, you know, two rounds ish after Travion Henderson at this point, maybe round and a half, depending on
24:25some drafts, but about two rounds after Travion Henderson.
24:27It's crazy because most years I would just be like, yeah, I get Travion Henderson.
24:31He's the ascending player, you know, year two guy, whatever.
24:34But now I'm getting Ramondre Stevenson because I'm sitting here.
24:37I'm like, oh, the market's kind of like downplaying what happened in the playoffs last year and what the situation looks like
24:43in New England, et cetera, et cetera. And it almost feels just completely backwards, right?
24:47Because like year two running backs are the backs that we generally should be going after.
24:51It's not, it's just not as clear as clean and clear cut.
24:54I do think though, that we're working with sharper drafters who are playing best ball in May and June.
25:00Like we are sick individuals. If you're listening to this right now, you're a sick individual and, you know, naturally you're going
25:06to be more in tune with what we should be doing from a trend standpoint.
25:10I think once the, once season long drafts pick up and stuff, we're going to see a different kind of situation with Ramondre and Travion.
25:16Nobody is anti-sweating Ramondre touches more than people playing best ball in June.
25:20I can promise you that they're griping every time he touches the ball.
25:23Moving to receiver, a guy we've discussed a lot.
25:26He's got a new coordinator in Mr. David bling, blank Blau.
25:29It is scary. Terry McLaurin with the commanders. I just think that this offense could very much run through Terry McLaurin.
25:35I mean, Blau has said that himself multiple times and there's been a lot of favorable reports about what he's trying to do with the offense.
25:42I also just don't think that Terry McLaurin is dust.
25:44I mean, he saw his best yards per outrun of his career last year at 2.22.
25:49His best targets per outrun rate at 23%. His best first downs per outrun rate, which was 13%.
25:54Historically, players with that kind of combination do very, very well against ADP expectations.
25:57So McLaurin, I think you could draft realistically. Just given the landscape right now and how things have shifted in that third
26:03to fourth round area, I don't have a problem if you want to take him at the 3-4 turn.
26:08Just because that's when that wide receiver tier starts for me where there's just a lot of upside type players.
26:14I think McLaurin belongs in that tier. You don't have to take him there because if you're doing a lot of drafts,
26:20I mean, I've gotten him at the 4-5 turn plenty.
26:23But I think McLaurin is set up to have a very, very good year.
26:26Speaking of stacking, it's so funny. His ADP is 45.
26:29Jaden McDaniels is a very nice 69. Exactly 24 spots after him.
26:32I wonder why it's exactly slotted that way. And look, it's an easy stack.
26:36You can usually get Jaden Daniels if you get Terry McLaurin because the other teams are not looking at Jaden Daniels if they don't have Terry McLaurin.
26:43And we might even get a discount. There's a world.
26:46I'm happy getting him at ADP now. There's a world where this IU thing does come to fruition.
26:51And we might even get a slight discount on Terry McLaurin because people are worried about target distribution.
26:56Yeah, I mean, it's a very real possibility. I've actually drafted a lot of IU teams with McLaurin and with Jaden Daniels.
27:02I think IU is actually not a bad pick right now.
27:05We've kind of talked about that with the guests and stuff.
27:08But if and when he signs, his ADP is going to go up.
27:11Now, he hasn't played in a while. So who knows what that's going to look like?
27:16I'm not having crazy, crazy aspirations about what Brandon Iyuk might be able to do after coming off the couch and doing
27:22the Instagram thing that he's been doing over the last six months.
27:25But I do think that like if you're looking at like just expected value and cost benefit, 18th, 19th round pick, I
27:31think it's fine to go that direction. Back on the bolts.
27:34You could probably make this one short. Trey Harris is your other.
27:37Yeah, look, I'm fine with lad. I'm fine with QJ, even even though QJ's ADP has skyrocketed.
27:42I think that might settle a little bit. But this is just a cheap play in an offense that I think is going to be really good.
27:49Reports are saying that there's going to be a bigger role for Trey Harris.
27:53I mean, I think he's the wide receiver three on that team.
27:56And so there's some role for him to just be used and have, you know, 60 targets or something this year.
28:02But then there's also the upside of, you know, him being a year to breakout of QJ or lad going down to
28:08injury and then him being used more. There's multiple injury outs for him.
28:11And it's just a good offense. So, you know, part of this is also like I'm getting so many chargers that he's just a stacking partner.
28:18Right. So I have a lot of Trey Harris right now as a result of all that.
28:23Moving to tight ends. We've got a little Homer JJ here.
28:26He goes back to the Berg. Sees Yins people.
28:28And all of a sudden he's clicking a lot of Pat Fryer.
28:32Yeah. By the way, two honorable mentions at wide receiver.
28:34I have Devante Smith. A lot of Devante Smith right now.
28:37That was pre boosted ADP before the AJ Brown stuff happened.
28:40I was getting a lot of them. And then I still think Ricky Pearsall is a good pick based on his previous season peripherals.
28:47I think he can play the number two wide receiver role.
28:50You know, market score doesn't love Mike Evans right now.
28:52I don't I'm not like heavily drafting Evans. I'm not, you know, not drafting him.
28:57But I've had a hard time clicking Mike Evans name just because of the running backs and wide receivers that go around him.
29:03So Ricky Pearsall, I think is an interesting click.
29:05But yes, Pat Fryer move underutilized in my opinion, in that Arthur Smith rotation that he had at tight end, you know,
29:11with the John and Darnell Washington stuff. He's there's a new offense might feature him a little bit more and he's still
29:17just 27 years old and you're getting him in like the 19th round of these drafts.
29:21So again, part of this too is that I'm attaching him to like a late prayer stack with Aaron Rogers who I
29:27think I think Aaron Rogers from a from a fantasy perspective is pretty undervalued right to me.
29:32There's truly not really a reason that Aaron Rogers should be going after Bryce Young, let alone two or three rounds after
29:38Bryce Young in a lot of cases. Right. Like because like a lot of times people get their quarterbacks and they're at
29:44two or three and they don't really force the issue with some of the like the Genos of the world.
29:49And obviously there's stuff going on off the field now with Geno, but like the Genos of the world or Aaron Rogers
29:55or these guys who we think are going to play for the majority of the season.
30:00I think Rogers is going to be the starter for this team throughout the year.
30:04And especially because we know this is last season or supposedly his last season.
30:08It just seems like they're not going to just bench him at the end of the year, you know, like and Steelers
30:14should probably be like at least semi-competitive, at least, you know, in that like eight to 10 win range potentially.
30:19So as a result of that, like I think Rogers is just kind of undervalued.
30:23And so I've been attaching Pat Fryermuth to him because I'm not getting, I'm not definitely not getting a lot of DK
30:29Metcalf and I'm getting some Michael Pittman, but not enough to like really force the issue.
30:33So Pat Fryermuth is kind of my, and I get some Jeremy Bernard too, but Pat Fryermuth is kind of like the
30:39easy late stack if I'm, if I'm missing out on that, on that third stack or even second stack in some cases.
30:45Yeah. And when in instances where I'm not going elite tight end, it's a great click in the end of the draft
30:51where I just want to fill my tight end room with guys that are going to be on the field because we
30:57know Darnell Washington has his role on the team.
31:00He's not going out there and running a bunch of routes, right?
31:03This is, this is Pat Fryermuth show at the tight end position in, in Pittsburgh.
31:07Your other tight ends, speaking of a crowded tight end room, but a very explosive young player in Terrence Ferguson.
31:12Like I'm kind of a Terrence Ferguson truther. I understand that.
31:15Uh, the zap model liked him. Uh, I, I think he's good.
31:19You know, he, he gave us some production last year down the stretch.
31:22We know the Rams are going to be heavy with their 12 and 13 personnel usage.
31:26So he should be on the field plenty. Now he's going to be competing with other tight ends for sure.
31:32Uh, Colby Parkinson being sort of like the top one that, and I'm, I'm trying my best to sprinkle in Colby Parkinson
31:38and not just like be so enamored with, I like having a take.
31:41This is, this is one of the spots in the draft where I just like having a take.
31:46Like, I don't think this is a part where you need to be balanced, right?
31:50When we're in the 18th round, I think you can kind of lean into it.
31:54I don't want to, I don't want to walk away from the Millie this year and have 18% Terrence Ferguson and 1% Colby Parkinson.
32:01That just seems like, like not playing, you know, the EV game very well.
32:05Right. Where, whereas could, could I walk away with 13% Terrence Ferguson and 4% Colby Parkinson?
32:09Sure. Like, I think that's a little bit more reasonable.
32:12Right. And so I am getting some Colby Parkinson because they're, they're ADPs are shrinking the gap between the two.
32:17It's really just a coin flip at this point.
32:20Whereas before Parkinson was going pretty consistently ahead of Terrence Ferguson.
32:23So I've gotten more Ferguson or sorry, I was getting more Ferguson before I'm getting a little bit more Parkinson now, but
32:29there's nothing scary after Pukinakua and Devante Adams on this team.
32:32Like they don't have a third wide receiver. They're going to clearly use their tight ends in pass catching roles.
32:37And to me, Terrence Ferguson is the most athletic and the most versatile tight end that they have on that roster to
32:43move around the formation and kind of be the de facto wide receiver three on that team.
32:48Right. So I think he's a good prospect. There's good, it's a good system to be in.
32:52You know, I don't think that he's one of those players that I'm going to be heavy on in season long this
32:58year, just because he'll be a waiver wire guy.
33:01I don't think you need to draft him. You know, I don't think you need to throw that dart and be like
33:06so confident in that player unless you're in a deeper format, but you can, you know, obviously have him on speed dial off the waiver wire.
33:14But I think that he can give you some usable weeks.
33:17It might not be predictable, but he'll give you some usable weeks.
33:20Just given the environment. There are eight rounds that pass from when Blake Corum goes off the board until the next Rams player.
33:26And if you just go past catcher, there's 13 rounds between Devante Adams and Colby Parkinson.
33:30We know the target funnel is going to be very narrow.
33:33We know these guys at the top are going to get a ton of targets, but somebody else that has to catch
33:39some balls and be productive in this offense. Yeah, it's crazy.
33:42It's, it's, it's crazy. So it's, it's a really, really interesting build for that offense in general.
33:47But, and I think Terrence Ferguson is going to play, you know, as a year two tight end, we should be looking at into players like that.
33:54I know people are going to say, but what about Max Clare?
33:57I think Mac, like they, the Rams have shown us pretty consistently under McVay that they kind of red shirt their rookies, right?
34:04Like it's kind of like a, like they did that with Corum, you know, they've done that.
34:08I mean, if you want to throw Jarquez Hunter in there, you know, technically they just didn't use him at all.
34:14I mean, I think Jarquez Hunter has bigger problems than just, you know, we're not going to, let's go.
34:19We're not going to, we're not going to unleash him this year.
34:22Yeah. Look, it's an L I like Jarquez as a prospect.
34:25But we've seen it. We've seen it happen with them, right?
34:28Obviously Pukinokua was just undeniable, but, and they use them, but you know, you got, I think you have to be that
34:34kind of talent in order to really be heavily utilized for them.
34:38And Max Clare's a really good prospect too. Uh, but I think that that's more of a looking forward thing because Tyler
34:44Higby and Colby Parkinson could be gone next year and they know that they're going to continue being tight and heavy.
34:49So they got ahead of it in a good tight end class and they got Max Clare where they did.
34:55Um, so I'm not like overly worried about that this year.
34:58I think it's Taren, I think Terrence Ferguson is set up to, to at least give us a handful of usable weeks.
35:04Who do you got for honorable mention at tight end?
35:06I think Dulcich was one. I realized I didn't put that on here, but I, uh, I think Dulcich was one of them.
35:13I think I actually had a decent amount of Kate Otten oddly, which I, it's just a dude, right?
35:18Like I, I don't have like conviction about Kate Otten, you know, the, the Dulcich thing has been Malik Willis, but also
35:24I was drafting Dulcich cause he was one of the players we talked about right away when we started the, the, this,
35:30the season of the show where I was drafting him a decent bit.
35:33Um, but his ADP has gone up like three rounds since that happened.
35:37So I haven't gotten him as much, but Dulcich is still pretty, pretty highly exposed for my, in my portfolio right now.
35:43I think Kate Otten was another one that I was drafting a lot, partially just as like a, you know, late stack,
35:49you know, Baker, I think is kind of an interesting click sometimes cause he slips and you know, you can stack them
35:55with like McMillan and Kate Otten late. Yeah. Yeah.
35:57And it's also Gunner Helm or Kate Otten, AJ or Kate Otten, you know, the, I will say I've, I've, I've gotten some Gunner Helm too.
36:04I don't know if he is, I don't think he's as high as, as Otten, but I, I, part of that is
36:10again, Cam Ward just throwing the dart and getting him when he slips and stacking him in some way.
36:15If I don't get Carnell Tate or Wando Robinson, let's move on to our glorious guest for today.
36:20A friend of mine that I have gotten to know since starting becoming a best ball bro, really, he has a great
36:26YouTube channel, the flannel versus Neil Orfield. He's successful in DFS.
36:29He's won the Millie and DFS. He's had many six figure wins and daily fantasy.
36:33He's also a successful best ball player. He actually last year in the Millie, he finished two spots ahead of me there.
36:39So my, when I was screenshotting my, my finish of being 40th, every time I look at that, I got to see Neil's freaking username, two spots ahead.
36:47So he, he got the same payout though. Same payout.
36:49It's all the same, you know? He beat me by like, I think like less than half a point, but we chatted about this year's landscape.
36:56Like I've done with the, the, the other guests so far, cause I think it's just an interesting topic running backs at
37:02the one, two turn where we're seeing a lot of those guys go.
37:06So I wanted to get his take on that, how he's handling quarterback and so much more.
37:10So without further ado, here is that interview with Neil Orfield.
37:13So Neil, a question I've been asking other guests and I want to hear your take.
37:18Like I'll probably eventually stop asking this to guests, but I think at this point, since it's still June, I'll continue asking it.
37:24But you look at the landscape this year on draft Kings and you look at it last year.
37:29Now, last year you obviously had a lot of success.
37:32You know, I, I won't mention that you beat me by two spots in the final last year.
37:36I was telling rich that every time I look at that screenshot or something, or it like pops up, I always see your freaking username right above it.
37:44So you get to hold that over me forever.
37:47But when you look at the landscape on draft Kings year over year, what do you think one of the biggest differences
37:52is for, for, for this year compared to last year?
37:55Yeah. First of all, I want you to know, I was not going to bring up the fact that I finished in
38:0138th place in the draft Kings millimaker last year, besting you on whatever the final reception for Puka or Bijan.
38:07How many points did you beat me by like 0.2?
38:09No, I don't know. Yeah. Something like that. Like it was, it was nothing.
38:13And you were beating me until like, it was just like PPR scamming my way there with both Puka and Bijan on the team.
38:20So yeah, I got there at the last second to, to beat you up, but we made the same amount of money.
38:26Exactly. It's really all, it's all pretty, uh, the same 40th and 38th.
38:29Oh yeah. So, so the landscape, I feel like there's a few different ways you could answer this question.
38:34How has the landscape changed? One of them being running backs are kind of an obvious one, but I feel like quarterbacks
38:40to me is, is almost the biggest change in the landscape on draft Kings this year.
38:45And it was already pretty like a quarterback thirsty landscape on draft Kings last year.
38:49I feel like that was a big thing that we talked about quite a bit.
38:53A lot of people wanted to get their three quarterbacks.
38:55Um, they would pull up kind of the pocket passing quarterbacks, um, to an odd range last year, but I think it's gotten even worse this year.
39:03I mean, we, we have the range of quarterbacks.
39:05You, I mean, you have Josh Allen kind of his own tier going in the third round, but then after Josh Allen,
39:11you've got between rounds five and 10, 18 quarterbacks come off the board.
39:15There's just 60 picks, just, just over 60 picks separating Lamar Jackson and Tyler Shuck.
39:19Whereas in, in past years, I think that would have been like 110, 120 pick difference between those two.
39:24And then even after that rain. So I said, uh, 18 between rounds five and 10, six more quarterbacks come off the board in rounds 11 and 12.
39:31And then this year we're dealing with some kind of uncertain quarterback room.
39:35So I think it kind of makes sense because we have so many situations like the Browns and the Falcons and all
39:41these like kind of uncertain quarterback rooms going into the year.
39:44But then we also have like quarterbacks that we think could lose the job.
39:48Jacoby Brissett by the end of the year, Gino Smith.
39:50Um, so like it, it is kind of important to get those quarterbacks.
39:54But to me, that's, that's kind of the, the bigger shift is just all the quarterbacks have moved up so much this
40:00year relative to even last year when, when quarterbacks, you know, people were already pretty thirsty for their quarterbacks this year.
40:06Um, just like the, the separation between the, like, kind of, I mean, I would still consider Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels.
40:11Like these are top tier quarterbacks. I kind of consider them to be the same tier as Josh Allen.
40:16They're going like, there's like no separation between the top tier and the second tier.
40:20And it's just like really just a quick, uh, you know, um, growth from the, from the top tier to like the fifth tier of quarterback.
40:28Yeah. It's like there's just five, six rounds separating them.
40:30Um, so to me, that's, that's actually the, the biggest chain this year is you really need to get your quarterback pretty
40:36early or you're going to fall behind and you're going to be fighting for some quarterbacks who might not even be the
40:42starter to start the year or, um, you know, have, uh, some risk of losing their job by the end of the year.
40:48So the, the quarterback landscape to me is even thirstier than it was last year.
40:52So how are you handling that? Like are you kind of alluded to it?
40:56Are you, I don't want to call it early round because it's not really early round.
41:01It's not like Lamar and Jaden Daniels are going in round three or round four or opportunity cost is a little bit higher.
41:07Are you leaning into drafting those players? Because again, you mentioned like Tyler Shuck and where he's going and nothing against Shuck.
41:13I like Shuck this year, but like, you know, Shuck where he's going, that gap being closer to where Lamar is and
41:19stuff that does, is that making those elite guys a little bit more enticing for you?
41:23Yeah, for sure. Like I love taking the Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Drake May, Jalen hurts, like where they're going.
41:29I mean, it's also kind of a great range to take quarterback because you're dealing with some, if your profiles at other
41:34positions, it's like, okay, I can take Drake May who like, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the quarterback one overall this year should not surprise anybody.
41:42If Drake may or Jalen hurts or Jane Daniels, if they end up as like the quarterback one overall, or you're taking
41:48Tony Pollard, you're taking Ramondra Stevenson, who is the, you know, the running going, going as the running back to on his
41:54own team or, you know, Jalen Warren. So you're dealing with some more questionable profiles at running back or wide receiver, or
42:00you can just take an elite quarterback. So to me, I love taking that range of quarterback and then you can get
42:06back to taking your, your running backs receivers in a later round where to me, it's a pretty flat tier, you know,
42:12taking the, like I said, Ramondra Stevenson, Tony Pollard.
42:14Whereas later on, instead of taking the quarterback, you know, in the ninth, 10th round, you can take a Jonathan Brooks, Kyle
42:20Manungai, Blake Corwin, and it's not that big of a separation in those tiers.
42:24So I love taking the, you know, kind of the top of that range of quarterbacks starting around like five or six, as opposed to waiting on quarterback.
42:31Um, I'd rather get my, my quarterbacks early where you're just getting way more fantasy points from, I mean, Tyler shock to,
42:37uh, to Lamar Jackson is, I think a pretty good, pretty good example of that separation.
42:42Um, you're just going to get so many more fantasy points from Lamar Jackson than Tyler shock or Jaden Daniels from Tyler shock, uh, et cetera.
42:49Then, you know, the, the running backs that you could get in that range versus the running backs that you can take later on.
42:55So a question that I've gotten in that I feel sometimes as I'm, as I'm, you know, doing a lot of drafts
43:01and, and obviously wanting to not get too crazy with exposure is sort of, so from your perspective, and I agree, it's
43:07optimal to be sort of at the top of the quarter of any run, but let's just call it a quarterback run, right?
43:13Cause there is a run that happens from that like six to seven range through round like 10, right?
43:19There's this, there's this massive quarterback run where if you're getting the guy at the end of that run, especially if it's
43:25not an upside guy that you like, and you're just drafting a quarterback to draft a quarterback, you're obviously devaluing that pick, right?
43:31So it's, it's, it's smarter to be at the top of that run than the back of that run.
43:36Right. But the thing that I always struggle with is then getting proper exposure based on what I think is the optimal
43:42strategy to take in some of these drafts. Like for instance, like if you think going running back, running back is like
43:48the way to go, especially if you're in the back half of the first round or something like that, which we'll get to in a second.
43:55If you think going running back, running back, like that is optimal, then sure.
43:59You'll get some different iterations for the running backs that you're taking, but maybe you never get CD lamb, even though you
44:05probably want some exposure to CD lamb. Is that something that you're constantly thinking about in general?
44:09Is it something that you're thinking about right now in June, or is it something that you worry about a little bit later in the season?
44:16If you're doing something like the Millie where you know that you can kind of even out exposure as the, as the summer goes on.
44:23Yeah. And it's definitely something that I'm thinking about constantly, but it's not something that I'm acting on as much right now as it will be later on.
44:31Like you said, like, cause you and I, we're going to be drafting all summer.
44:35Like we have time to even out our exposures if we want to, but generally I think it's just a draft to
44:41draft, just making the best pick for that draft.
44:43I think it's generally the correct approach because ADP is going to shift throughout the year and you're going to have different
44:49opportunities throughout the year because, you know, ADP shifts like we saw with, you know, we've seen AJ Brown shift from a
44:55third round pick to a second round pick. And so, you know, it's better to get them in the third round and
45:01you, you see that throughout the summer, all these different players are going to shift in their ADP.
45:06Now for, you know, uh, the opposite example would be like, I'm not really taking Malik neighbors right now, but I'm not
45:12worried about it because I think Malik neighbors is going to move backwards.
45:15Um, later in the summer, we're going to be able to get him later.
45:19So I think, you know, generally it's something that's always on my mind.
45:23What are my exposures looking at? Am I comfortable with these exposures?
45:26But I also know that ADP is going to shift over time and also just like draft to draft.
45:31You can see even right now, if I, if I do 10 drafts today, I can keep my rankings the exact same,
45:37but I'm going to have different opportunities draft to draft.
45:40So, you know, I might always be taking, um, those, those running backs in the later rounds, but there's going to come,
45:46um, a draft where like you say CD lamb, if you want to get CD lamb, there's going to come a draft
45:52where CD lamb just going to fall to you at the 11 pick or something.
45:56So you can keep him ranked behind Justin Jefferson and Amon Ross, St.
45:59Brown and Christian McCaffrey, whoever it is that you're taking over him and you're going to have opportunities to, to draft him
46:05without reaching to, to take him ahead of players that you like better.
46:09So I don't worry about it that much right now.
46:12Um, but yeah, once we get to August, if I'm like, you know, I don't really see a big separation between CD lamb and Amon Ross St.
46:19Brown, then I might start just reach a little bit and take CD lamb over Amon Ross St.
46:24Brown. Um, but yeah, for now I'm not, I'm not really, you know, going out of my way to even out my exposures that much.
46:31Now I say this, I think that that is the correct approach is to not do it that much.
46:36I do it some, like, I can't help it because there are players that I'm like, you know, I really don't feel that differently about.
46:42Like I had this conversation with Corain last week, Ted Aron McMillan and Luther burden.
46:47Like, uh, if I use his product, I'm always going to get a Ted Aron McMillan ahead of Luther burden.
46:52I'm to me, like, to me, it's not that clear that I like T Mac that much better than Luther burden because
46:58I think there's pros and cons to both. So I might sometimes reach and take, um, you know, a burden over Ted
47:04Aron McMillan profiles like that, where it's like, it's not that clear to me that this is a different tier of player.
47:10So I do, I do sometimes reach a little bit, but I think that the correct approach is, is the, you know,
47:16let it, you know, work itself out over time.
47:18Yeah. Makes a lot of sense to me. So also this year we've, we're, we're definitely seeing more people.
47:23I will say, I think that part of like the running back heavy discussion, which is why I love that you answered
47:29that first question with quarterback and not running back.
47:32Cause I think it's sort of like the default to talk about the running back, not to say that it's right or
47:38wrong, but I do think that it might be a little bit overblown.
47:41Like the idea that people are like going so crazy for running max right now and such.
47:46And like the, like it's so totally different than what we saw last year.
47:50I would argue that last year we still saw a decent amount of running backs going early in, in these drafts, uh,
47:56especially because the year before that running back was actually pretty strong.
47:59And so we are seeing some, like, I think that part of it is the narrative of like some zero RB bros
48:05who are now touting, you know, going early around running back is making the entire industry be like, oh man, like everyone's
48:11going early around running back now, which is probably true to a degree, but there's still some good wide receiver picks in
48:17there, but the meta has certainly shifted. Let's just say that let's say that people are more okay in drafting multiple running
48:23backs with their first couple of picks. So my question though, and this is one that I asked Liam last week as
48:29well, is this a year then to zig when everyone's zagging and go zero RB as people are more comfortable with a robust RB approach?
48:35I think that the correct approach is always to just take what the draft room gives you.
48:40Um, so no, I don't think that it's necessarily the right year.
48:43Like, I don't think that you should be forcing zero RB this year because we don't have the same type of late
48:49round running backs that we used to have. So part of the reason that, you know, I was really in on zero RB.
48:56I mean, even last year when it didn't really work out for me was because I thought at least last year that
49:02there were tons of late round running backs that had really strong profiles.
49:05It was, you know, a really strong rookie running back draft class where you could get these rookie running backs late who
49:11should have a ton of upside, um, have some continued value.
49:14Now for me, I took all the wrong ones.
49:16I was taking Rashard Smith, Jarquez Hunter, et cetera, et cetera.
49:19But I know you started talking about Kyle Monunga late later on in the season after not really loving him early on.
49:25Woody marks like there were these running backs that you could get later on.
49:29Um, so it made more sense to do more zero RB when there were stronger running backs later.
49:34Now you have a lot of the running backs, um, that were, that are like young running backs that we see have a lot of upside.
49:41You can't really get them in the later rounds anymore.
49:44Like even last year, you could get like a Tyler Algier.
49:47So I, I, I love the running backs, particularly in best ball that have some standalone value.
49:51Like they don't need anything to happen and they're going to have some double digit scoring weeks, but then also have like awesome contingent upside.
49:58So last year it was like Tyler Algier or something happened to be John Robinson was going to be awesome.
50:04You just don't really have a ton of those guys later on.
50:07Um, so if you, and you need to score some running back points early on.
50:11So you really can't wait too long, I think to start drafting running backs.
50:15Now I still do some zero RB ish builds where I won't take a running back until like the seventh round, but
50:21it's tougher because we don't have, you know, a ton of these and you do have some, like you could, I mean,
50:27Brian Robinson might be an example this year, replacing Tyler Algier in Atlanta.
50:30Who knows? Like you, you can, you can probably find some of those later on in drafts.
50:35We're going to have, who will have those, you know, 10 point weeks here and there throughout the season, even without an
50:41injury, but they're more difficult to find because people have gotten sharper about how to find the right running back profile.
50:46So like the running backs who have that, you know, uh, standalone value Blake Corum is now going in the top 100
50:52picks common on guy going to the top 100 picks.
50:55The, the type of running back that you used to maybe be able to get at like pick one 40, one 50, you can't get them there anymore.
51:03So it is to me more difficult to go zero RB this year than it has been in years past.
51:08But then the, you know, the, the tricky part there is it does feel like, you know, we, we have a lot
51:14of kind of aging running backs with a lot of miles on their legs at this point who are going in the early rounds.
51:21So it does feel like we're probably going to find some later round running backs who don't have a ton of standalone
51:27value, but probably do have massive contingent value behind Saquon Barkley, Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, whatever, and name any of these running
51:33backs who are veterans who have a ton of miles on them.
51:36Um, but to me, it's like you can, you can still go after some of those backup running backs without going zero
51:42RB because it's like, I just think that the tough part is you do need to get points early in the season to, to advance your team.
51:49You need to get some points from running back early on and it's tougher to find those running backs who are going
51:55to score early points later in drafts this year.
51:57So I'm doing, I'm, I am doing some zero RB, but I'm not taking it to the extreme that I've done in
52:03past years where it's like, I'm not taking a running back till the 10th or 11th round.
52:08Like to me, zero RB now is like sixth or seventh round when I started taking running backs.
52:13Yeah. Yeah. Agreed. Are there any middle or late round backs that you've really gravitated towards over on DK?
52:18Yeah. I mean, a lot of the ones, um, that I mentioned, you know, I've, I've taken a fair amount of, uh, Blake Corum, Kyle Monongai.
52:25Um, the one that I'm really in, in the middle rounds that I've gravitated toward is Jonathan Brooks.
52:30I just, I can't, I can't get enough Jonathan Brooks.
52:33Um, just, I think I've just memory wiped the past two years and just like, you know, he was so exciting a couple of years ago coming in.
52:40And, uh, I don't know, like I'm not a doctor.
52:43I don't know how to read the medical reports.
52:45And I think like, depending on who you read, you're going to get a different vantage point on like Jonathan Brooks outlook this year.
52:52Like, did he have, did he actually tear his ACL twice or was it a repair the second time and he's good to go now?
52:59I don't know that stuff, but I know that there are some people, some, you know, Twitter doctors, uh, who believe Jonathan
53:05Brooks should be good to go at this point, should be healthy.
53:08And then we just get such bullish coach speak on Jonathan Brooks.
53:11Um, that kind of leads me to believe that like, you don't really need an injury ahead of him to, to tube
53:17Hubbard for Jonathan Brooks to take over as the top running back on a team that really wants to run the ball.
53:23Um, so, so to me, Jonathan Brooks is, is kind of that mid range running back that I've really gravitated toward now
53:29he is, he's getting a little bit more difficult as he gets closer to the Blake Corum and common on guy.
53:35Cause to me, like that's kind of the, the tier that he belongs in.
53:39Now I, I do think that he has a probably better odds than either of those two to take on like the,
53:45the one, a role without an injury. But I think that they have probably a, a stronger hold on the, or, you
53:50know, we're, we're sure of their floor, like as the one B for a guy like common on guy, Blake Corum.
53:56So to me, that's kind of the right range for Jonathan Brooks, uh, until we hear something more bullish, um, and he's
54:02moving kind of in that direction, but he has not quite gotten there yet.
54:06So I've been drafting just a ton of Jonathan Brooks.
54:09Yeah. I like that call a lot. I have been too.
54:12And some of it is when you look at the way the, you mentioned the market's been sharper and I agree.
54:17And one of the ways that it's been sharper, and this has been brought up before on the show, but you know,
54:23you look at some of these, like, like new England, for instance, where Travion Henderson goes in round five and then Ramond Ray goes in round seven.
54:31And I feel like historically that would have been flipped where the younger guy would have been the easier click, like very
54:37much easier or like Bayshall tootin before would have gotten in like round eight or nine, you know, like now he's going
54:43in like the five, you know, the five range, like pretty comfortably.
54:46Now he was more in the six range before, but like, I feel like the Carolina backfield is one of the few
54:52backfields where like, maybe you can maybe make an argument about Tampa Bay if you're really pro Kenny gain.
54:57Well, but the Carolina backfield is one of the backfields where like the younger potentially ascending talent.
55:02Now, obviously this is all because of the, the ACLs, but the younger potentially ascending talent is the one that's actually going
55:07a decent bit later than the other guy. And like, that's kind of attractive because we're not getting those situations very frequently
55:13right now, you know, within the environment. So I love the Jonathan Brooks call out.
55:18I think that's a, he's to me, he's like the, like, if I go early running back and get a couple of
55:23them in the first, like two or three rounds, I I'm fine with him as my RB three, you know, and then,
55:29and then just tagging on a few, you know, two or three of them later after Brooks, because I do think he
55:35has that upside of just being the one a in the backfield, like you said.
55:39And if that hits while you have the other two running backs, you drafted early, that's a really good stable of running
55:45backs for your, for your best ball team. Yeah, I feel the exact same way.
55:49He's really strong as a running back three, could break in and be like your, your top, top two running back pretty easily.
55:56The funny thing is, we talk about this, but it's still like, you know, and it's one of those rare situations where
56:02like, you can get the more exciting younger running back later, but it's still like, you, you still have to take him in the, you know, ninth round.
56:09Like we still, we're not getting like the crazy good discount.
56:12So it's like, I love the pick, but it's not like such a clear, obvious one.
56:17Whereas there was a point where it was going, you know, in the one forties, one fifties or something where, where it was a more obvious click.
56:24Now it's like, all right, it's still like, I still really love taking it.
56:28I still feel like the, the profile here relative to the other running backs around.
56:32I love it, but it's, it is like the drafts of drafters have gotten a lot sharper than, than they were in past years.
56:38So I, so I love doing it. I think he's a really strong, you know, like running back three, like you said,
56:44I'll even sometimes use him as like my, my running back to it.
56:48It's pretty rare though. Um, at this point that I'm, that I'm drafting a running back to that late, or he can
56:54like, to me be the final running back on like a four running back build on draft games.
56:59Yes. I'm hoping that in regular season, long leagues and home leagues that it's not that he's more of an afterthought.
57:04Like I'm hoping that we end up seeing ADP and like the season long environment, not be, I guess a sharp, but
57:10like, you know, we see a little bit of these changes and like makes it easier to get guys like toot and stuff like that.
57:17Then it like nothing against those guys. I think you can draft them.
57:21I'm just saying like, I want it to be like the most obvious click in the world.
57:25You know what I mean? Instead of, instead of you actually having to think about it and be like, eh, do I
57:31want to take on this cost when I'm taking on this player with the running backs?
57:35Like, like we've been saying, like we're, we're taking them early and oftentimes, especially if you're in the back half of the
57:41first round, you're double tapping running back a lot, right?
57:44Just because of the group that's there. So, um, I want to ask you, are there any favorites that you have at that one, two turn area?
57:51I mean, you can, you can extend it into middle of round two and even late round two, if you really like
57:57a Derrick Henry or something, but, uh, are there any running backs that you've seen seem to go after a lot more
58:03in that range or are you kind of just spreading things out more evenly?
58:07I love Ashton Gentry in that range. Like he's, I mean, he kind of goes at the top of that range.
58:13Maybe he goes after James Cook. Um, and I, sometimes I, I question whether I'm foolish for, for liking Ashton Gentry better
58:19than James Cook, but I just think he has like true bell cow upside.
58:23Um, I think the, the offense could take a step forward.
58:26Um, the question is like, am I just wish casting that he'll become James Cook?
58:30Like what James Cook has been the past couple of years?
58:33I'm not sure about this, but I, but I, I really liked taking Ashton Gentry kind of at the, the end of round two.
58:39Um, and then, you know, if you can pair him up with Saquon Barkley, I think Saquon could take a pretty big
58:45step forward with the new offensive coordinator this year.
58:48Uh, you've kind of talked me into you, you among others have talked me into Chase Brown as being a really strong second round running back target.
58:55So there are kind of a number of these second round running backs that I like Kenneth Walker, I think is kind of fun.
59:01Like just, just go into the chiefs. We haven't really seen the chiefs with a good running back in a while and
59:07who knows how they're going to change their offense.
59:10Um, especially with Patrick Mahomes kind of coming off an injury, maybe they go a little bit more run heavy, uh, with Kenneth Walker there.
59:17So I like Kenneth Walker in the second round.
59:19Um, and then Omar in Hampton, I do think like the chargers were so injured on the offensive line last year.
59:25Like if they can just keep their offensive line healthy, I think it'll be an above average offensive line and no Martin Hampton was pretty good last year.
59:32Um, so I, I'm pretty into him also. So yeah, I, I do kind of like that range of running back in the late first, early second round.
59:40Like it feels pretty good to double click running back there where, you know, in years past it's been difficult to do
59:46so because you feel like you're getting behind at wide receiver.
59:49And part of the reason that it's also easier to just do these early round running backs is like the mid late rounds.
59:55There's a lot of receivers that I kind of like.
59:58Um, so I'm, I'm totally willing to, to double click those, uh, that, that kind of range of running back.
60:03I'm like, and one that I'm, that I didn't bring up here that I'm kind of overlooking is Devin H and who,
60:09you know, to me is like, it's hard for me to do it.
60:13I don't want to bet on the Miami offense.
60:15And then it's like, he's just going to be targeted.
60:18So, so often that I'm probably overlooking him more than I should on, on draft Kings.
60:22Um, then of course there's the, the elephant in the room is that I told you last year that I was probably
60:28not going to draft Derrick Henry at all on draft Kings.
60:31And then, uh, he took you to, to 40th place in the, in the draft Kings.
60:35You still beat me. Well, that is true, but that's cause I had B.
60:39John Robinson crush also, but yeah. Um, Derrick, he, he's a tougher profile for me on draft Kings just with the lack of PPR.
60:46He's fallen a little bit back, uh, in drafting, get him sometimes in the late second round, uh, in which case I'm,
60:52I'm willing to take a Derrick Henry, but he's, he's, he and Devin H are kind of the, the running backs in
60:58that room that I'm a little bit less excited to take.
61:01Yeah, no, I, the, the H and stuff is really, really difficult for me.
61:04I think he's one of the hardest players to really evaluate this year.
61:08You know, I've been doing a lot of work with the draft guide and he checks all the boxes that you want
61:14for an early round pick until you get to the situation part.
61:17And the situation is just putrid for Miami. And we do see the best outcomes typically when they're, they, when, when these
61:23running backs have good team environments and his team environments terrible.
61:26And so, uh, it is something that it's like, how much do we weigh that in the end?
61:31You know, I, I do think that a Chan can pay off, but I think he's going to need like a 20% target share to do so.
61:38Like it's going to have to be that high and that's scary, especially with a mobile quarterback.
61:43So I'm with you. I haven't drafted him sometimes.
61:45So fall. Like if you do enough drafts, he, he does, cause a lot of people have the same logic as, as,
61:51as we're throwing out there right now. So like, sometimes he falls to like the back half of the second round and
61:57it's like, yeah, I'll, I'll click them there. So I'll get some exposure and that's where I'll get my exposure, but I'm
62:03with you with a lot of the takes that you just had.
62:07Uh, you know, Ashton Gentty looks great in market score.
62:09Uh, you know, published that episode yesterday and, uh, Ashton Gentty looks awesome in there.
62:13And then the Amari Hampton thing, I need to get a little bit more of him because it's not that I was like aggressively fading or anything.
62:21It's just the way that like drafts have kind of unfolded for me.
62:24But the thing I feel like with Amari and Hampton is that I think the floor is actually probably pretty decent because the offensive environment is so good.
62:32And then he's going to get work in that offense, but then the ceiling could really hit if things just sort of go his way.
62:39You know, like if he, if he gets like a little bit more of a backfield share than what people are projecting and stuff.
62:45And I have enough Keaton Mitchell that I probably should get more Amari and Hampton.
62:49So I do think that this range is probably why people have the idea that they have about running backs this year, right?
62:55We're like second round. We're pounding them when we don't, I would like last year was wide receivers in this range, you
63:01know, and they screwed a lot of people, including me and some drafts.
63:05Right. So I do think that's probably where the narrative is really stemming from, but in the end, it's not dramatically, dramatically different.
63:11If you look at the, the totality of round two, as opposed to just the early parts of round two.
63:17Now, another decision you have to make in that area is Brock Bowers.
63:20Cause he will go smack dab in the middle of those, of those running backs now, and that, that running back run.
63:26And then there's also Trey McBride who will slip to the early third round pretty frequently at this point.
63:31But I guess my question for you is like, on DraftKings, are you going with an elite tight end approach?
63:37Yeah. I'm, I'm the guy who falls for elite tight end every year.
63:40I'm the, the goofy meme. I'll effing do it again.
63:43I'm doing it again with, with Brock Bowers in particular this year.
63:46It's funny because Trey McBride is the one who actually did separate it last year.
63:50He, you know, outscored the tight end two by over a hundred PPR points weeks one through 17.
63:55He was so good, but like, I just have so little faith in like, is it even going to be Jacoby reset?
64:01Is it going to be Jacoby reset in the weeks that matter?
64:04And does it matter? Can Jacoby reset repeat what he did last year?
64:08So I have, I have so many questions about Trey McBride.
64:11Whereas Brock Bowers is just like, man, he's so good when he's healthy.
64:14Like last year, I feel like last year was just a huge, just like forget about it for Brock Bowers because not
64:20only did he miss time, but while he was playing, he played like three or four games where he was just clearly
64:26hampered by injury early in the year. So I think you throw out most of the year for Brock Bowers.
64:32And then on top of that, there's the whole, just the offense wasn't working.
64:35The team fell apart. I think Brock Bowers could take just a massive, massive step forward this year and separate in a big way from other tight ends.
64:43Um, and yeah, I, I love the elite tight ends because, and it might just stem back from like, I've been playing season long for 30 years now.
64:51And I just yearn for the days of Tony Gonzalez or Gronk and just feeling like I'm going to beat my opponent by 10 points every week.
64:58And I feel like you can get that from, from a Brock Bowers.
65:01He can just separate so much from the other tight ends, uh, that I, I do really love going after Brock Bowers that year.
65:08Now with that said, I'm not like strictly in elite tight end guy.
65:11Like I don't like reach to get Brock Bowers, which I did last year.
65:15Sometimes I would take him at the one, two turn last year.
65:18I'm doing less of that this year. Um, but I'm still going to be pretty significantly overweight.
65:23The difference for me is especially with 20 rounds on DraftKings in best ball, you can just take five tight ends and
65:29hope that, you know, they'll cobble together scores week to week that it's like the, the separation of Brock Bowers versus my five tight ends.
65:36You just need one of them, one of their scores every week to like get close to his, um, to not just,
65:42uh, get completely bashed in by, by the, uh, Brock Bowers score.
65:45So I'm because it is best ball and because you like have enough draft spots that you can take five tight ends.
65:51I'm doing it less. So I'm, I'm not like reaching for it, but yeah, if I can get Brock Bowers at pick 2021, I love it.
65:58I'm, I'm always excited to get Brock Bowers there.
66:01Have you gone, have you frequently gone five tight ends or have you gone like you'll go up to that number of tight ends?
66:07I don't think that I've done more than five.
66:09I think I've done five a number of times.
66:12Um, just like you get to those later rounds and maybe it'll happen less as we get more clarity on running back
66:18to situations, uh, pecking orders for wide receivers, et cetera, et cetera.
66:21I think it might happen less, but now it's like you can get like a number of starting tight ends pretty late
66:27or tight ends with really fun upside later in drafts.
66:30Um, so yeah, I have done five, five tight ends on draftings a number of times.
66:34Interesting. I think the most, I think the most I've done is four is, is the like, like I I'm thinking like
66:40from an allocation standpoint, is it a, for you when you do that and you have five, is it, is it basically like final five rounds?
66:47You're basically just like doing that at tight end.
66:50And then you have what, I guess seven wide receivers.
66:52If you go wide receiver early or something, and then like five running backs, you're kind of going with that approach with it.
66:59Yeah. So I, I try not to make most of my analysis based around, uh, using the sidekick.
67:03So I use pack reins sidekick tool from legendary upside, which simulates the season and simulates the contest.
67:08And I never would have done five tight ends in the past, just using my brain, like using my own logic.
67:14I never got to five times. It is because I've been using this tool.
67:18That's like keeps on telling me. So I did a live draft yesterday on draft Kings where I took Brock Bowers and
67:24still kept on getting recommended to take up. I took five tight ends in this draft, even after like it was, it
67:30was, uh, I was getting recommended Jackson Hawes. And I was like, I'm not going to take Jackson Hawes.
67:35So I took somebody else and kept letting it fall and finally, I guess I'll do whatever that this will be my one share of Jackson Hawes.
67:42Um, so it's honestly, it's based largely on the Sims tool that I'm using telling me, Hey, you should just take, take tight ends here.
67:49It's you're taking a tight end. Who's going to score you some points or you're taking a running back.
67:54Who's probably going to be a zero most of the time.
67:57Um, but yeah, that one, that was one where it surprised me.
68:00Usually it kind of makes sense where I say, okay, you're getting five tight ends, but they're all in the final seven rounds.
68:07Like that is usually when it happens. It's not usually when you have a Bowers or McBride, but yeah.
68:12So sometimes I do, I do find that I'm, uh, being recommended taking a fourth and fifth tight end when I'm like,
68:18this doesn't make any sense to me. I've taken Brock Bowers and Harold Fannin and Dalton Schultz.
68:22And why do I need a fourth tight end here?
68:25But occasionally I just give in and do it anyway.
68:28The, the beefier tight end room approach, if you want to call it that makes sense when you factor in what you
68:34just said about where we're at in the off season, right?
68:37Or, or, you know, we, we, we, we don't have clarity in a lot of these running back rooms and even wide
68:43receiver rooms, but we do get these usable startable tight ends late that we'll be able to find our lineup more frequently
68:49probably than some of the other running backs and wide receivers that we would be drafting.
68:53But then on top of that, it is easy to forget that the tight end can find your flex, right?
68:58Like it's, it's not like you're only using that player in the singular tight ends, but now they, they generally score fewer
69:04points than the other positions do, but there's still the possibility.
69:07And it's a full PPR platform where like tight end could match running back in some weeks, especially a late round running back in some weeks and such.
69:15So I haven't gotten up to five, but I've done four frequently because like when I can get like Terrence Ferguson type
69:21players in the 19th round, like when I feel confident or Pat Friermuth, when I feel confident that those guys are going
69:27to have some role, I do like kind of, kind of putting that together and not having to worry about the position
69:33as early, but it's interesting that you've done it, you know, based on what some of the Sims are saying, even with
69:39some of the earlier round tight ends. So it's a, it's a really interesting approach.
69:43Yeah. Honestly, that's one that's like, I never loved doing it.
69:46Like I, even when I'm using the simulations tool, I want the team to make sense to me.
69:51I want the pick to be like, okay, that's a pick that I like.
69:54I want to make that pick. Um, so sometimes I'll, I can be off of the, the SIM suggestion, but, but sometimes
70:00like just to kind of follow, like see what the Sims will do and then try to figure out why they did what they did.
70:07Um, so, so yeah, it can be fun to kind of make teams that you wouldn't otherwise draft.
70:12Cause I'll, I'll do some drafts where it's just like, I'm just doing what I want to do throughout the draft.
70:18And then I'll have a mix of these that it's like, I have, I don't know why this team makes any sense
70:24at all, but this is what the Sims are saying.
70:26So I guess I'll do it this time. Yeah.
70:29I love it. I love it. All right. I get a question all the time from listeners.
70:33Do you care about by weeks? Yeah. I feel like this is a loaded question, uh, where you want me to answer.
70:39No, in part, because I've, I've heard you say that you don't care about by weeks.
70:44I want your true, genuine answer to this. Yeah.
70:46My true, genuine answer is yes, I do. Actually, I do care about by weeks.
70:50Um, you know, I've been, I've been doing best ball content for a few years now.
70:55And a few years ago, that was sort of like my, my thing, like people knew me as the bi-week guy.
71:00Neil's the guy who cares about bi-weeks. He's always breaking every tie based on bi-weeks.
71:04I have, I've become a bit less bi-week pilled over time.
71:07Um, but I do think like, so it's different to me, it's a pretty big difference between best ball in redraft.
71:13I don't care at all in redraft because in redraft, you can just pick somebody up off the waivers to fill in
71:19your bi-week, but best ball, like you, you can't do that.
71:22So to me, it's just like a matter of, I'm trying to find, stack every little edge I can find to beat
71:28this room of, of 12 opponents, be in the top two of the 12 opponents in my room.
71:33And that's one of those edges that you can stack.
71:36It's just like, I'm not going to take a zero at quarterback.
71:39And ideally I'm not gonna take a zero at tight end.
71:42And, and ideally I'm going to have like multiple players that can cover every week at every position.
71:47So it is, it is something that I pay attention to.
71:50Um, but I, I also acknowledge that part of the reason that I maybe pay more attention to somebody like yourself, you've
71:56been doing fantasy football analysis for, I don't know, a decade, a really long time at this point.
72:01So you're almost certainly better than I am at, um, picking players.
72:04Just, just like finding like the profiles and layering the profiles together of players.
72:08Whereas I'm more of like, I come from DFS.
72:10Like I'm not, I have been playing fantasy football for three decades.
72:13I've had a lot of success at it. So I don't want to, you know, downplay my strengths also, but I feel
72:19like my strength is more in the like, uh, game theory and try to find other little edges.
72:24Whereas I think like you are elite at like fine picking players and ranking best like fantasy football players.
72:29In which case, if you're really good at that, then maybe your edge is actually in just like finding all of the
72:35best players and stacking all those best players together.
72:38So I think it makes more sense for those of us who have not been, you know, doing fantasy football content, uh,
72:44and, you know, creating a zap model, you know, all of this, uh, for, for a long time, maybe it makes more
72:50sense for me to focus more on the minutiae stuff, the little edges that I can find as opposed to, yeah, I
72:56just think this player is way better than this player.
72:58So I'm not going to worry about the bi-week.
73:01Yeah. Just another thing for us to worry about guys.
73:03Just, just another thing for us to, to think about as we're drafting these teams.
73:07All right. One question I do want to ask before I get your bold take, because I love asking about the bold takes too.
73:14The round four to five range at wide receiver, which by the way, we were in a draft together.
73:19I didn't even realize it until we were in like round three or four, but we were in a draft together the other day.
73:26You're I loved your team. You guys drafted a great team.
73:29Mine was kind of whatever. It was fine. It was, it was one that I walked away from.
73:33I'm like, this is at least usable. Like, I don't think it's a dead team, but in that draft, I was really
73:39mad because of the four or five turn. You took Terry McLaurin and Jalen Waddle.
73:44And I had taken Luther burden at a four 11 hoping that maybe one of them would come back around and I could get one of them.
73:51Cause I like both Jalen Waddle and Luther burden or Terry McLaurin quite a bit, but that four to five round range,
73:57maybe early, maybe like late third, because of the way that ADP is sort of like changed and morphed, like where, you
74:03know, lad goes or Zay flowers at this point, that whole group.
74:06Are there any favorites that you have from that group?
74:09Or are there any guys that you just don't like?
74:11Because to me, I look at all these wide receiver profiles and I'm like, yep, I can get behind that.
74:17Yep. I can get behind that. And I really want the wide receivers in that range so much.
74:22And I, I'm just curious if there are any guys that like really stand out to you, or if you're just kind of even with, with those guys.
74:29Yeah. I mean, we, we already kind of like Jalen Waddle to me has been a pretty big target just because he goes so late.
74:36Um, so I over, over 20% Jalen Waddle on draft games.
74:39He's the one that really stands out to me.
74:42Um, I I'm big time. I have 0% of DJ more so far since you open it up to, to fades.
74:47I just have not been doing DJ more at all.
74:50I just like the, the profile is not great.
74:52And I know he's going to Buffalo. He's playing, playing with Josh Allen.
74:56So maybe he revives his career, but like he had not a ton of target competition early in the year, last year
75:02with Caleb Williams playing pretty well and didn't really do anything.
75:05So, um, you know, and sometimes I like betting on the, like resurrecting the career, like the, the bounce back for, for
75:11a wide receiver, especially who, who changes teams. But so far I have not been doing that with DJ more.
75:16So he, he's a pretty big fade. Um, but yeah, the, the favorites are me, Jalen Waddle.
75:21I, and I kind of like the old guys, Devonta Adams and Mike Evans, just, I think the, the price is really
75:27fair for players who should have a lot of receptions and a lot of touchdowns this season.
75:31The more kind of off the wall one for me would be Christian Watson is somebody that I feel like I'm, I'm
75:37buying in more than most, um, just because he was so efficient last year, loses a couple teammates.
75:42Uh, so I could see Christian Watson being an even bigger focal point of the Packers offense this year.
75:47Um, and I like the price. Yeah. I just love that range.
75:51The whole range is like, I can tell a story about all of these guys, but it's funny.
75:56I agree with you totally. Like the one guy that I have a hard time clicking, it's probably because I haven't gotten
76:01super crazy with Josh Allen either, but it's DJ more, right?
76:04Like his, his last two season peripherals have been pretty horrendous.
76:07And, uh, it's just a scary bet to make whenever it's amongst so many other good wide receivers.
76:12Like to me, DJ more would be clickable in like the early to mid sixth, right?
76:17Where he just goes around or two before that often, you know?
76:20And, and I think part of it is probably the Josh Allen stacking stuff, but also, you know, I, I, people are
76:26like, I can see where this goes South where we're, we're both of us are sitting down, you know, in January and
76:32we're like, why did we do that? Like, it's a, it's a, a guy who has a backbone that's, that's playing in a Josh Allen led offense.
76:39So like, I understand where it can go South, but a lot of the trends and the stuff that has historically worked
76:45for these players and like where they hit in this range, DJ more does not check those boxes.
76:50So I'm, I'm, I'm with you on that one, but before I let you go, I need to, I need your, your,
76:56your bold take for this season, whether it's player or roster construction, anything, I just need, I need some, some fire for me, Neil.
77:02Yeah. I've been going back and forth on like, do I want to just a player take on like AJ Brown or Jonathan Brooks?
77:09I I've been toying with the idea of the, the winning $3 million team has already been drafted because it kind of ties in all these players together.
77:17Cause there was a period where all of Jonathan Brooks, AJ Brown, Brock Bowers, you get all of them like at a pretty nice range together.
77:24I'm going to go with Jonathan Brooks. I'm just going to go Jonathan Brooks outscores Chuba Hubbard on the season and is
77:30a league winner is the player that you need in the playoff weeks.
77:33I love it. I love that take Neil. This was great.
77:36As always let everyone know where they can find you, where your YouTube channel is and where we can, we can watch that beautiful face of yours.
77:43Yeah. I'm a, the flannel verse on, on YouTube is just at flannel verse or on X or blue sky.
77:49I'm player Q. So yeah, you can find me player actually player Q DFS player Q DFS on the socials.
77:54Otherwise you want to find me on Twitter. I'm just a flannel verse or actually I just, just launched a new podcast,
78:00which JJ was already a guest on called best ball.
78:03Whenever, wherever you get your podcasts on Spotify, Apple, whatever, just search for best ball.
78:07Whenever. Yes, definitely check that out. Also check out late round.com pre-order that draft guide to make sure you subscribe to the
78:13YouTube channel, youtube.com slash at late round FF. Otherwise everyone, thanks for tuning in.
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