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1:07Alan Soslowski is a fantasy sports video content manager and editor at RotoWire and the host of the Dynasty Hour on SiriusXM Fantasy Radio.
1:13He previously did work at Rosterwatch. He's a high-stakes player, a win-now Dynasty manager, and he once got hacked on Twitter.
1:19These are his late-round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by DraftKings.
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1:46Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
1:50The crown is yours. I don't like all the intro stuff.
1:53Welcome to my podcast. Hi, everyone. Right. I hate that stuff.
1:56Like, I've always done the cold open because I feel like every show just ends up going, hey, Alan, how are you today?
2:02And then you're like, good. How are you? And then it's, you know, it's just a minute and a half of that,
2:08and no one needs to hear that part. And no one cares how you are.
2:12I produce a lot of the video stuff over at RotoWire, and I tell these guys, no one cares about your golf
2:18trip until they care about, you know, just like, just get right to it.
2:22Like, shock, you know. Our mutual colleague, Sigmund Blum, does this, right?
2:25Like, he comes in, like, with a fantasy question.
2:28He does, yes. Yeah, and I love that. But also, just talking about how intros are bad in your intro is also elite-level intro.
2:35This is, like, next-level stuff right now. Yes, yes.
2:37I always go back to, I don't know if you've ever seen that one video from Pete Overzet from, like, five or six years ago, maybe even longer.
2:45But it's him, his back is to the camera, okay?
2:48And there's this, like, really, like, there's, like, this, like, pretty extreme, like, rap going on in the background, like, intro music,
2:54because that's how fantasy football shows are, right? Like, they have this, like, really intense music.
2:58And then, you know, Overzet's slowly turning his chair around, and then he's staring at the camera, and he's got this, like, really serious look.
3:05Like, we got, you know, this intense music is going on.
3:08And then all of a sudden, he goes, welcome, everybody, to another episode of, you know?
3:12It's almost like an SNL skit of a fantasy football open.
3:15But also, you do a gazillion podcasts. Like, I know you like everybody.
3:19You're a friendly guy. But that chit-chat in the beginning of the podcast, it's uncomfortable, unnecessary.
3:24Let's get to it, man. You know, it's... I agree.
3:26That's what the Late Round podcast was built off.
3:29It was just get people the information they need.
3:31You know, we have other shows in the feed now, like, we do the Late Round show, where we have a little...
3:37But, like, I think that... The other thing, too, is that I think that if your listener becomes aware that how things
3:43are structured, and then, you know, if they want to skip ahead, skip ahead.
3:47Like, it's fine. You know? Like, that's something... I think the bigger problem is when the expectations are not aligned with what
3:53the listener, you know, is expecting as they go into listening to a show of some sort.
3:58And then all of a sudden, you know, they're in the middle of, like, a really intense fantasy football conversation.
4:04And then they just start talking, you know, like you said, about their golf trip or something.
4:08Or, like, you know, about, like, the basketball game that...
4:11You know, this video that we're making is, like, fantasy football related.
4:14It's supposed to be relevant to someone in six weeks from now.
4:18No one's going to care about the NBA big game that you just saw.
4:22I mean, it's good for the moment. Yeah. So, yeah.
4:24But it was sweet. It was sweet. The finals.
4:27Both finals. Both the NBA and NHL finals were great, in my opinion.
4:30And now we're doing it. Now we're talking about something that no one's going to care about in six weeks from now.
4:37We ruined this. All right. Well, let me first bring up...
4:40Because we talked about this whenever you and I were chatting on a show a couple months ago.
4:45But we're in a wild dynasty league together. Where it's 10 analysts.
4:48This was started by some of the football guys, guys.
4:51And there's 10 analysts. And it's a start two, but also additional two super flex leagues.
4:55So you can realistically start four quarterbacks. And then, you know, there's other flex pieces in there for running back wide receiver.
5:01And I remember we had this conversation because we talked before the rookie draft happened.
5:05And I went with more a productive struggle year one.
5:08You won the league. So let's everyone give kudos to Alan here.
5:11Clap, clap, clap. There you go. You won year one, which I was really upset about because now...
5:16You helped me. Yeah. Now... I traded you Jalen Waddle for like a first last year because I knew that I just
5:22needed to start flipping some assets and stuff. Which I...
5:25Unbelieve... Like, you guys want to talk about... Like, I'm not an analyst who like hides from moves or like hides from
5:31the way that I'm approaching things and stuff. I've always been a Jalen Waddle guy.
5:35It's just that you guys know that when you're in a dynasty league and you're in a clear like, I need to
5:41just get some assets to hopefully, you know, like look better the next season and such.
5:46Like, I knew what I was doing year one in terms of the productive struggle.
5:50So I just flipped Jalen Waddle and I wanted some assets.
5:53And with this being a four quarterback league, if you will, I knew that some of those running backs and wide receivers
5:59would fall a little bit more or I would just get a quarterback.
6:03And... But you ended up winning. So I got a bad...
6:06A bad pickup. Yeah, but two things happened there.
6:08When you traded me Jalen Waddle, Jalen Waddle's arrow was pointing down, right?
6:12Like on Miami, hadn't been as good. And because you need to start five wide receivers in this particular league, I was
6:18like, listen, if I'm a top two or three team, at least this is...
6:22You have to push your chips in at some point.
6:25And nobody's giving me anything better than Jalen Waddle at that point.
6:28I didn't think it was such a bad deal for you because remember, even if I win JJ, it's still pick 110.
6:34It's not 112 in a 10-person league. Right. It's 110.
6:37And then hopefully the quarterback class wasn't as putrid as it ended up being.
6:41And just in terms of like... Because it wasn't like we did this in like February or something like that.
6:46The problem for me is that Waddle ends up hitting, in my opinion, hitting the right...
6:51You know, I mean like a 90... In terms of like what happened this offseason, it's probably like a 90th percentile type outcome.
6:57You know, just like a better environment. Every... I'm doing stuff for my draft guide right now.
7:02And every middle round trend, middle round being anyone, any wide receiver after wide receiver 18 is how I generally define that.
7:08He hits like every trend. Like Jalen Waddle to me is a very, very interesting slash potentially like big pick this year.
7:14Right. And so that coming together is what makes me, you know, feel the way that I do right now.
7:19And that's like one of the ways that I'll play Dynasty too.
7:23Like we haven't even seen the result of Jalen Waddle, but Jalen Waddle for some reason goes from like wide receiver 27 to wide receiver 19.
7:30I'm again, I'm making those numbers up. But he has like a 10 spot boost.
7:34And that's what out. So, and I think that's going to be part of our larger conversation today is like, sometimes it's
7:40like not about what they're going to produce on the field.
7:43Some of these guys, it's about what's their value.
7:46What can you turn them into? And you're right.
7:48Jalen Waddle is in a better situation because it's funny.
7:51Like I see a lot of fantasy output on like social media saying how no one's going to draft Devon Achan because he's in a bad situation.
7:58That's like one of the best running backs in the league right now.
8:02So yeah, those situations really do help boost a player's value.
8:05I don't even think the trade was that bad.
8:07It ended up being in net net. Now that we know all the results, you get Eli Stowers in a two tight end league, right?
8:14That's who you ended up drafting. I think that's what I got.
8:18Yeah. Yeah. I'd looked at it before. I figured we were going to figure out we're going to bring this up for some therapy.
8:24And you know, and I get Waddle who's what 27 going on 28.
8:28So it's not terrible in a startup with a two tight end startup.
8:32I think that those guys would probably go in a similar place.
8:35And I know starter price is different than trade price, but it's not, I don't think it's going to be as bad.
8:41I mean, look, I've had, I've had worse trades.
8:43That's for sure. What's the worst one? Give me the worst one you've ever had.
8:48Oh my gosh. I think the worst one, fortunately I'm no longer part.
8:51Like my team was really good, but it was just like becoming overwhelming to be part of the league.
8:56This was when Amon Ross St. Brown came out.
8:59And I remember I knew that there was a chance I would get them in the late second, you know, cause that's
9:05where he was going in a lot of the rookie drafts that year.
9:09But before my pick even came up, I, I was in win now mode and it was like, I don't know about
9:15you, but do you ever like when you're, when you're doing trades sometimes, do you ever have just like this?
9:20I hope I can describe this. Well, this like one day window where you just happen to be like, like specifically high
9:26on that player or in that, on that situation.
9:29And then literally like a day or two later, you're like, I'm not, I don't know why I was so high in
9:35that moment, you know, like dude, it happens to me when I get off podcast with smart guys like yourself.
9:40Like I was on a podcast with Thor Nystrom and he talked me into Luke McCaffrey.
9:45And then I traded like a second round pick to get on before.
9:48Yeah. So it happens all the time. I'm influenced just like anybody else's.
9:52Right. Sure. Sure. And so I, it was, it was like a, it was beginning of the second round.
9:57I knew that there was a chance that Amon Ra would be there.
10:01Maybe even like mid second. I was only like three or four picks away.
10:05And I just ended up trading my late second for the, the, the corpse of Julio Jones.
10:09Oh, and that was the Amon Ra pick. It ended up being the Amon Ra pick.
10:14Yeah. And there was also, I mean, I, in a, in a league that I'm still in, um, that this dino game
10:20theory league, uh, that, that Jack's Falcone, if you will, will, uh, he, he's run.
10:24Uh, I traded, it's a, you know, super flexing.
10:27My team is actually really good, but I, I ended up trading a couple of years ago, Dak in a super flex league, which I love.
10:34I'm, I've been a Dak backer. So that was like a kind of a, a play on, on my portfolio a little
10:40bit, but I ended up flipping him for IU can picks and you know, yeah, I mean, it was just, yeah, it
10:46was also, but that was also a moment where I'm like, there's a three day period where I was high on IU as a player.
10:53And as a situation without like fully looking into my research and knowing regression was going to come to some degree.
10:59I didn't expect this. Of course, you know, this is, this is, then that was a trade with Justin Boone.
11:04So shout out Justin Boone for completely fleecing me in that.
11:07But yeah, I mean like what, what's your, what's your worst that you can remember?
11:11Oh, I, this it's an easy one. I can tell you in a second, but don't you like wake up in the
11:17middle of the night sometimes, like just randomly. And listen, if these are the problems we're waking up thinking about, then things are going well.
11:24Right. But I, I like, it really gets me when I do something like so stupid to like, you know, like in hindsight, because the process is fine.
11:32Of course, by the way, I would say Brandon, you still in a better spot than my Luke McCaffrey, who I, right.
11:38Right. I, um, the worst one I ever did was after Juju Smith Schuster's like, uh, that rookie or not.
11:44It was, it was his second year where he broke out.
11:47Yeah. He was wide receiver one in dynasty rankings.
11:49I traded the farm form and those picks that I ended up trading away were like Barkley.
11:54It was like, yeah, it was, it was all the wrong stuff.
11:57And that one, it forced me out of a dynasty league.
12:00I had no like return from it. And I was like, you know what?
12:04I'll pay for the next guy to come in.
12:07Like, I don't want to rebuild this team, which by the way, you know, people leaving dynasty leagues, which is a epidemic.
12:13I think there is a right way to do it as well.
12:16You win a lot of leagues or you, do you get out of them?
12:20I mean, I've, I've fortunately the last couple of years started to, to like, some of them just have collapsed and some
12:26of them, I'm just like, you know what? This is not nearly as active.
12:30I try to pick and choose like the more active ones to be part of, but yeah, I mean like to me,
12:36if you're going to leave, I try, I'm like, yo, I'll pay the next like three years.
12:41You know, like you pay to get out. I don't want to be, I don't want to be an inconvenience to anyone
12:47because that's just not the way that, you know, I, I roll, but yeah, I mean like, I think that, that there
12:53is a way to not be a, you know, a jerk as you, as you exit.
12:57Yeah. I mean, you see it in the travel time.
13:00Well, my busy and kids like, dude, just say you don't want to be in the league anymore.
13:05Cause I see those guys end up in like three more startups like the next year.
13:09Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, our, our, our league, it was, I was very happy that I got the one Oh two in
13:16that league though, because we were having this discussion where, you know, our league or quarterback.
13:20Yeah. And in the, in the, in the crazy four quarterback league, I was happy to have the one Oh two because
13:26I knew that worst case, I was going to get Mendoza, but I thought Mendoza was going to go one Oh one.
13:32And he did. So I ended up getting Jeremiah love at the one Oh two in that league.
13:37This format where you could start four quarterbacks, which again, nobody plays and I don't recommend it to anybody.
13:42It's a horrible format, but we're playing. Yeah. It's honestly more disgusting than anything that I've done.
13:47Yeah. It's like not fun. It's only fun a little bit for me right now.
13:51Cause I have Bryce young as my Q before, right.
13:54Cause I won, but it's not going to be fun in like a year and a half from now.
13:59But the, yeah, this is the only format where Jeremiah love the rookie running back in Arizona goes second.
14:04Yeah. You get him at two. Cause I, I've been in 38 drafts and it's never happened in anything.
14:10Yeah. Yeah. All right. So before we get into stuff, let's, let's, let's introduce you and your, and your background a little bit.
14:16So folks know what you're all about. Cause this is the first time that you're, you're hopping on perspectives here.
14:22Yeah. You know, uh, I, I'm my Alan says Lowski.
14:24I work over at Rotowire and similar to you, man, I was just like a nut about fantasy.
14:29When I was working a regular desk job, I used to, you know, pretend I was working and just do all my fantasy drafts.
14:36Right. Like I was to do the research. I would do mock draft central back in the day.
14:41And then, you know, uh, I saw like an opening for something at like, I think it was where Jeff Ratcliffe used to work.
14:48Was it PFF back in the day? It was a PFF firm.
14:51And he posted it. And I was like, it's my friend told me, he's like, you should go for that job.
14:57I was like, what, what the hell am I going to do with a job?
15:01You know, it's fantasy. That's not a real job.
15:03So, uh, I asked a colleague of, of the new Jeff, if he could put in a word for me or something like that.
15:10And he goes, no, he goes, once you come work for me over at roster watch, that was Byron Lambert.
15:16Yeah. So I used to be a caller to Byron show and that's how he knew me.
15:20And then he goes, come over. So I just started doing the article grind, the video grind.
15:25And then I do a lot of the video editing and, and all the podcast editing and stuff.
15:30And sure enough, um, I was able to pick up with Rotowire man.
15:34And, uh, as again, as someone interacted with their Sirius XM show and I've been there for about five years now doing
15:40all the video stuff, hosting a Sirius XM show for them, getting some good opportunities.
15:44But yeah, and it's like, I'm like six years into this thing and I'm, I'm like you, man, you own a business doing this thing.
15:51I still like, I'm waiting for someone to take it all away and go back to like, you know, horrible desk jobs.
15:57Like I never feel like it's going to last, you know?
16:00Yeah, no, I, I feel you. I feel you.
16:02It's a, it's a, it's a, you know, very lucky to be able to do this, you know, day in and day
16:08out in our inner, in my case, in Jim, as I say, in Jim Schwartz every day.
16:13Oh my God. So when people ask you like it, you know, a gathering with your kids or whatever dinner part, like
16:19when they say like, what do you do for a living?
16:22Like, do you always have trouble explaining it or like, do you curtail it?
16:26Cause when you say fantasy football, they're like, you know, what do you mean?
16:30Yeah. Yeah. And then I'm like, yeah, I'm like, yeah, I own a fantasy football company.
16:34Right. I, I, uh, I usually tell people that I'm a podcaster first.
16:38And so I say that because that's more, that's become more generally accepted.
16:42And then that way they ask the question of like what it's about.
16:45And then I can form it in the way.
16:48Yeah. And so like, yeah, exactly. Depending on the demographic, like depending on the person I'm talking to and just, if I,
16:54if I broadly know what they might be into or not, then I can kind of curtail my answer based on if
17:00they say, what's it about, you know, then I can get into a lot of detail.
17:04If I know this is a sports person or, you know, not in a lot of detail if not, but yeah, it's always been a pretty weird.
17:12I've gotten more and more comfortable though, as I gotten older, because I think as you get older, you just don't care anymore.
17:18You don't care. And plus you've made a real business out of it.
17:22And it's funny. I have a funny anecdotal story about you, JJ, because you know, when I was just in, and I
17:28listened, I still listen to every single podcast that I consume so much content.
17:32I like to know what other people are thinking too.
17:34I know that a lot of fantasy football content creators, I think you fall into this is that you try to avoid it because you don't want to.
17:42Yeah. Because, and that, and I understand it because you don't want it to like go into your process.
17:47I'm the opposite. I like to hear what everyone else says and kind of just, and by the way, this is not
17:53a process I recommend, but I still enjoy it.
17:56I really still enjoy listening to you, listening to Scott Conner and Jax Valcone and all those guys.
18:01And I just, I put it all together. But when my wife actually discovered your podcast before I did, and when she,
18:07and she plays a lot of fantasy football, she's, you know, she's a casual, she, but she plays every year for the,
18:13and she used to always tell me about you.
18:16So I was like, you know, and I don't want her to be telling me who's good.
18:20So I used to listen. I used to hate, listen to you, JJ, because I was like, this is her thing, you know?
18:27And so I love it. Yeah. I love it.
18:29You are, you are her favorite fantasy football podcaster.
18:32So she was more excited than anyone that I was coming to hang with you for a little bit.
18:37That's awesome. I should have had her as a guest.
18:40I probably more interesting to tell you the truth.
18:42Yeah. So is that, is that how you sort of like frame yourself as an analyst?
18:47Is that like, you're a, you're kind of aggregating and sifting through and kind of approaching things that way.
18:52Totally, man. I was a club. There's people, you know, everyone has needs, thinks they need to have their secret sauce.
18:58Now you have your model, your zap stuff. Like you do that.
19:01Well, other people watch film really well. Like I'm not going to do it better than that.
19:06I'm going to listen to what they say, but also I watch so much NFL football and I play a ton of fantasy leagues.
19:12I play in the high stakes stuff. I play in, you know, like in the sleeper stuff with industry guys and I'm
19:18able to kind of see the angles there. I think that's kind of like my superpower.
19:23Like for example, I know like everyone loves Casey Concepcion, the Browns.
19:26He's high on your model, isn't he? Yeah. He was, he was at least like, like not far off from lemon, but yeah, he was the widest.
19:34He was like comfortably the wide receiver for, yeah.
19:36Right. Everyone likes him. He's like the last pick in this rookie draft before it just goes off the rails for a lot of people.
19:43So I don't need to watch all that, you know, and I'm going to, when I'm consuming all of, you know, the
19:49best guys that do it, but I know if I draft him, I'm going to be able to do something with Casey
19:55Concepcion, especially if he has like, his first game is like six for 80 or something like that.
20:00So that's basically been my process is like you said, is bring it all together.
20:04Trust my observations. Same way. Like when you go to a doctor, you don't do your own, you don't have your own model for a doctor, right?
20:12You listen to all the research. You can get all the facts.
20:15That's what you think. You have your late round medical advice.
20:18Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Late, late round, uh, late round, uh, uh, mole checking.
20:22Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Do you do proctology as well?
20:24Yeah. Let's not go there. All right. All right.
20:27Uh, but the same thing like with, you know, with food or anything else, you, you, you listen to what the people
20:33you trust and then you form opinions on your own observations and, and basically how you know this game goes.
20:39Yeah. I mean, I think that's, that's interesting. And it kind of leads me to this next question of like what you
20:45think dynasty managers do wrong, because I've sort of the way that I've framed what you're saying here really resonates with me
20:51because I've always tried to frame to people that dynasty has sort of two big pillars, one pillar being production, obviously, because you need to score fantasy points.
20:58You need to attempt to win, but the other pillar is what you're talking about with the, the Jalen Waddle thing.
21:04And that is, you know, you just want the market value to change.
21:08And is that, is that something that you think dynasty managers still get wrong?
21:12I mean, that's something that you obviously have focused on a lot, just given all the consumption that you're doing.
21:17Yeah. And I think that you're going to hate this answer because you are like, you are very rigid to your process.
21:23You trust it. And there's, yeah, I always say like, I kind of make the joke.
21:28It's like a game of blackjack, right? Like you would never, if the dealer showing a, for those who play blackjack, the
21:34dealer showing six, and you have to say a five, a 15, right?
21:37Yeah. You would never hit on that. Right. But if I hit on that and follow me here and I get 21, right?
21:44That was the wrong process, but I got the right result.
21:47Sure. Right. So I think that, and again, that's an extreme example, but I don't, I think that what dynasty managers do
21:53incorrectly is they're too rigid to their process rather than sometime measuring result.
21:56Now there's always going to be outliers, right? Like Puka Nakua, Amon Ross St.
22:00Brown. I think he was kind of an outlier in a little bit, right?
22:04Like he didn't go in any first rounds of rookie drafts, right?
22:08He, now he's one of the top five dynasty assets.
22:10So being too rigid to the process, which again, it goes against like your religion over here.
22:15So, I mean, look, I, but, but I think I, like you can, you're not offended.
22:19me at all. Cause I agree. Like, I, I think that like, as I'm talking to people and as I'm producing this
22:26content, it's very much a, Hey, this is the way that I've approached things generally.
22:30And it's led to this, but you know, if you're part of the discord or if you're, you know, like I'm giving,
22:36you know, I'm talking to people all the time about like, I don't want to say like my truer thoughts.
22:41Cause that's not really the case. Like I, I'm just letting them know like, Hey, this is what I just did in the dynasty league.
22:48Let's say. Right. And they might say, Oh, that goes against your rankings.
22:52I'm like, well, there's context. It's necessary, right? Like there's, there are certain things that, you know, whether it is just portfolio management, sure.
22:58But also there are elements to your team that, that you might do something that you wouldn't otherwise do in another team.
23:05I agree. Like, I think that the dynasty community has gotten to a point where they're more interested in having a flashy
23:11team that has a lot of value as opposed to having an actual, I was guilty of that for a long time.
23:17And I, it finally clicked with me a few years ago and things have been like rolling since then.
23:22Right. But it's, I'm really good at, I mean, I've, I've co-managed teams with people and I still do.
23:27And I always say, I'm very good at acquiring value, right?
23:30Cause I, I think I have an edge with rookie drafts.
23:33I think that can make right moves more often than not.
23:36I'm good at acquiring that value. It's really when you, when you push your chips in that, that's the most difficult part for me when dynasty.
23:44Yeah. I actually, what you just said, I actually have a word for it.
23:47I've diagnosed it. It's called SRS sexy roster syndrome.
23:50Yeah. Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, I mean, we've, you've heard that before, but yeah, people love putting the screenshots
23:56of their all young team on, social media. And by the way, I almost like sometimes then you get the, the, the comment says, what is this?
24:03A six man league. Right. That usually follows as well.
24:06But I think where, what some people do wrong is they don't look at where the redraft rankings and the dynasty rankings
24:12part, because as, as you know, dynasty rankings are very age centric, not skill centric.
24:16And, you know, like it or not, a lot of these dynasty leagues probably have like a three or four year lifespan, right?
24:23It's like an NFL career. They don't last as long as you think you do.
24:27Some of them are going to last 10 or 15.
24:3015 years. Some are going to fold after two years.
24:32So I think there is an edge. And what a lot of dynasty managers make a mistake.
24:37I think you alluded to a little bit here is, uh, undervaluing, uh, veterans that produce for, to accumulate value.
24:43And I do the same thing. I do the same thing, but I'm okay.
24:47You know, giving a pick for a Devante for a 32 year old high producer, Mike Evans, some of these guys.
24:52And look, that's what I did in our league.
24:55Yeah. For you. Is it a, is it more what I've found?
24:58Because I know that, that the, the common thought is like mid season trading.
25:02You as the person getting the veteran would hypothetically be overpaying, right?
25:05For whatever, you know, that's like the general thought in the dynasty world, right?
25:09Is that, you know, if you wait whenever trade deadlines are coming up or whatever the case may be, you're going to overpay for those guys.
25:16My more just like anecdotal experience has not necessarily been that when you're dealing with a dynasty manager who at least has, has been around the block, right?
25:24That, that is, that is more willing to do deals and understands what they need to do.
25:29If they're in the opposite situation that you are similar to where we were last year, right?
25:34Like you coming to me and saying like, Hey, you know, or, you know, Jalen Waddle, whatever.
25:38And then I'm like, you know, I, I like him, but I guess, you know, I need to kind of do something here to, to make a move.
25:46Like I'm, I'm in a lot of leagues with Mike Leone and Leone is the King.
25:50And I give him so much credit. He's a great dynasty player, but he's the King of just getting a deal done,
25:57even if he has a small loss, but he's acquiring, you know, if he's rebuilding, he's acquiring picks and he's able to give up on some of these.
26:04And he understands that he might lose the deal, but in the long run, it's still a better, a more beneficial move
26:10for him to make in that moment for his individual team.
26:13It's similar in like best ball when you get a falling quarterback value, but that quarterback just doesn't fit a stack whatsoever on your team.
26:20You can't just force the issue because that's not going to be good for your team.
26:25You're all you're doing is, is trying to gobble up a certain value when that's really not necessary to do at quarterbacks.
26:31My, my question to you is, is that, you know, as you're, you know, going to win now and, and trying to,
26:37to, to build, you know, a beastly roster to, to get that W for that year.
26:41Have you found that, that statement and that general like idea of guys are way more expensive in season?
26:47Cause the reason I say that is like, if you're going after the veterans, as you say, are you doing that more in season than out of season?
26:54Because obviously if you're doing an out of season, there's a lot more variance to what can happen to your roster, you
27:00know, weeks one through eight, you might not even be competitive by the time, you know, the, the, the, that you would
27:06be hypothetically making that move for the veteran. See JJ, you know, all the topics that get my neck hair to stand
27:13up, man, this is, this is good stuff right here.
27:15Yeah. I mean, it's always cheaper to buy the 31 year old, the 32 year old wide receiver in, in March than
27:21it is in the, in, you know, November, right?
27:24Like facts. So, and, but it's not that much more expensive.
27:27Sure. If you're trying to, to buy the 25 year old, that's off the big season.
27:31I mean, how old is Chris Alave now? Is he 26?
27:34Something like that. Right. That's going to be super expensive.
27:37Right. But you know, Mike, I keep going back to him.
27:40He's been always like the best example because he's always, you know, Derek Henry is another example, right?
27:45Cause he's an outlier is defying what the running back age curve.
27:48So yeah, I mean, those guys are always going to be more expensive, but they're still caught.
27:53You know, if you go after those guys for the championship run, people are also, you remember the other side, the selling
27:59side is going to feel panicked to sell those guys too.
28:02So there's, they're not, if you, if you play it right in the right situation, you know, nobody's going to, you're going
28:08to get a better deal on those guys essentially when they matter most.
28:12If I buy Derek Henry in March, there's a lot of risk leading up to that.
28:16The NFL draft injury. But if I buy him in week 12, you know, like, and he's healthy, here we go.
28:22Right? Like it's, I'm skipping all the risk part.
28:25Yeah. Right. And like, I feel like, sure. Like, let's say that there's an apples to apples comparison where like in March,
28:31you're getting Derek Henry for a second and, and, or, or, you know, two seconds or whatever.
28:36Yeah. Yeah. Whatever the case may be. And then you have to pay a first when, when in season happens.
28:41Right? Like, let's say that's the case. The thing is though, is that you're, if you're just comparing those two deals, you're
28:47missing all of the information that you would, that you're gathering, right?
28:50For, for making the deal later, you now know, Oh, I'm competitive.
28:54My team is healthy. I can get a true boost here where in March, you have no idea if any of that stuff has happened.
29:01And you know, that Derek Henry is, is having the career again.
29:04We're using him as the example. It could be Brees Hall, right?
29:07I'm actually, he's still young too with a new contract.
29:10I'm trying to think of like an older, Hey, well, we use Henry for, for the, for the sake of argument, but
29:16you, you already have skipped all the risk. Right.
29:19And you know that he's locked in and they're on a run.
29:22I'm just looking down like the list right here.
29:24All the, uh, I mean, David Montgomery, David, let's say he's having one of those seasons.
29:29Remember the Jamal Williams season where he just led the league in touchdowns.
29:32Let's say he's having one of those. People are going to look at 29 year old.
29:37They're going to be like, I don't want 30 year old David Montgomery on my roster next year.
29:42Exactly. And right now the thought of buying someone like that for a pick, a first round pick seems ridiculous.
29:47Right. But if he's a top six, top five RB, just based on touchdowns alone.
29:52And also, you know, now that in this stretch run, there's a very good chance that pick's going to be one 10, one 11, exactly.
29:58One 12. Right. Whereas now if things go wrong, that could be like one Oh three.
30:03And then that's, that's a horrible trade. Yeah. I just, I just don't see the benefit generally.
30:08You know, I, you know, I, I'm not going to get rid of this guy no matter what, you know, whatever the case may be.
30:14But I think that if you're in a normal dynasty league, it just, it seems like nine times out of 10, it's
30:21just better to make sure you have all that information.
30:23Maybe it's a more conservative approach, but I also think that it's the smarter approach because the Delta between the two deals
30:29that you would be getting in March versus week 12 just doesn't seem significant enough in the end, you know, cause there's
30:36so much variance to rookie drafts anyway. And it's also going to depend who has the picks a lot of times by
30:42week 11, week 12, just using like that stretch run, maybe, you know, the other managers that are in competition with you
30:48have already burned their first round pick or whatever.
30:50That's why when you get the light, when you're doing a deal and then someone's like, Oh, just give me, or, you
30:56know, I would say just throw me a third back or something like that, or even a fourth, just something to sweeten the deal.
31:03Just in case in a stretch run where I'm competitive with someone for a player, you know, I have that little extra, just like cherry on top.
31:10So yeah, you know, when people, I hear it a lot, third rounders don't matter.
31:14They never hit. I'm not using my third rounder to draft, you know, Elijah Surratt or who, you know, whoever, you know,
31:21I'm using that to sweeten the deal so I can get, you know, a Deandre Swift when he's on a heater in week nine.
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32:37Terms at dkng.co slash audio. As you're doing a startup, and I've gotten a lot of questions about like startup approach and such.
32:44And like, you know, I have my take for sure.
32:46But I'm curious, like last year, for instance, in our league, did you go in saying, I want a win now team?
32:52Or was it more reactive to how others were drafting?
32:55Yeah, it's win now no matter what. Like I said, I'm always under the assumption that the league is probably not going to be around in five years.
33:03And if it is, hopefully I've given my chance to win it once.
33:06And if I'm lucky, maybe twice. I just, I love the idea.
33:10And I've done a ton of videos and articles about productive struggle.
33:13It's such a cool concept, right? But that's taking in the kumbaya realistic world that like this dynasty league is going to be around forever.
33:20And it's fun to do different things, especially different price points.
33:23But if I was like in a thousand dollar entry league, and I know every year a $500 league, and I know
33:29every year I'm going to have to plunk down that money.
33:32I don't want to keep like contributing. So it's win now no matter what.
33:36Now, again, that doesn't mean just be reckless and draft it completely like a redraft team.
33:40I want to give myself a few outs and draft some of the sexy players that people like, you know, like rookies
33:47like Cornell Tate or someone like that, just so I can, you know, even someone like Ty Simpson, who seems like a
33:53dead pick, I'll get that guy on a win now team because it's almost like having a quasi first round pick in your back pocket.
34:00The Rams did that in the real NFL. I know.
34:02It's crazy. Listen, I learned not to question them.
34:05Yeah. I've learned not to question them whatsoever. But yeah, no.
34:08So my theory is, even in our draft, you went quarterback, quarterback, right?
34:11You hammered home. There's nothing worse in a super flex dynasty league than having to deal with the quarterback position.
34:17It's a nightmare. Yeah. At the very least, you know, whenever I do my super flex rankings, which in my opinion is
34:23the hardest type of rankings to do for a customer because every league is just so, especially in redraft.
34:28I mean, season long super flex. I've talked about this on shows, I think even recently, but like super flex redraft leagues,
34:34you're going to get somewhere where 10 quarterbacks are off the board after the first round and a half, and you're going
34:41to get somewhere only three are off the board, you know, it's so, so, so you have to be very reactive from
34:47that perspective, but I think it's different in dynasty because there is this commodity.
34:50It's a commodity. It's this, you know, you're playing the market value of these players.
34:55And if the market says something like, I know that people will sit there and they'll crap on keep trade cut all day long.
35:01And they're like, oh, these values don't guys. If the market is using that website, I care about what the website is saying.
35:08It's like the American dollar, right? If the world is using the American dollar, we got to use the American dollar.
35:13You can say it's, it's fragile. It inflates. It's all this other stuff, but yeah, you're right.
35:18Keep trade cut. Like, again, you may not agree with it, but that's the agreed upon consensus.
35:23Exactly. Even on the Sirius XM show on the dynasty hour that when we were talking, I said consensus rankings.
35:28I don't like, you know, I, I don't want to promote the site without them being a sponsor.
35:33That's the Sirius XM show. But they know what I'm talking about here.
35:37When I say consensus dynasty rankings, that is some, why do you think that's become like the consensus dynasty rankings?
35:42That's a whole conversation. I don't, I don't know.
35:45I think it's just because it's, it's structured and algorithmically different, you know, than like, cause like, yeah.
35:50Cause like DLF, you know, I think probably was that for a lot of people for a while and, and that, but
35:56that was all based off of like startup ADP that they, they, they ran, you know, like a handful of startups that McDowell would do every month.
36:03I think that the difference here is just the, the mechanism in which that's been, that's been built.
36:08Um, you know, but, but again, like when I do my, my dynasty rankings, like I have sites like that in mind,
36:15then I'm checking what the value of these players are.
36:17And that influences my rankings because the value component matters, you know?
36:21And so if my super flex rankings, you know, if I'm like, yeah, sure.
36:24I'll be lower on some guys versus what the market's saying.
36:28But if the market's really, really high, I got to bump them up a little bit because that's just the way that dynasty is played.
36:34You said something a minute ago that I, I've heard you say about how the market, every, every draft is different with where the quarterbacks go.
36:42And I always, I take that with it. I always say, Oh, JJ had this great point.
36:46I think this is one of the smartest points because I intuitively know it, but I wasn't, I never heard it articulated.
36:52Basically I've seen drafts this season super with a dynasty and would redraft where the, the, the whole line is red with quarterbacks, except for Bijan and Gibbs.
37:00And then I've seen ones where it's like two or three guys go.
37:04And then like Jaden Daniels is a second round pick.
37:07Lamar is like a one, two turn pick. So yeah, you're right.
37:10It's, it's not that it's, it's how is the league going to value the quarterbacks?
37:14If the first five guys are just like, Hey, I'm taking quarterbacks.
37:17I want them locked in. Then that's the price, you know?
37:20So I've heard you say it and I use it and I give you credit.
37:24So don't worry. That's awesome. Yeah. Like I, I, I think, I think that like the best players and drafters are the
37:31ones that know how to react, right? They, they know how to look at the board and they know what's about to
37:37come as opposed to what's already happened. And you have to have a feel for that based on just experience for sure,
37:43based on knowing your league, et cetera. And, and, and really based on knowing tears, right?
37:47Like where that tier really dries up and where, you know, you're not going to be able to get a player later,
37:53but in super flex in particular, I look, you can even apply this to single quarterback leagues like in season long, right?
37:59Where you know that Josh Allen can give you X amount of warp.
38:03However you want to measure his advantage over the rest of the position, right?
38:07You know that he can give you that, but here's the thing.
38:10If you draft Josh Allen in the second round of your redraft league, number one, there's an opportunity cost in doing that, right?
38:16Cause you're obviously missing out on some really good running backs, especially this year, some running backs.
38:21But if you do that and then Lamar Jackson goes in round nine, Lamar Jackson is by far the better value in that situation.
38:28And you just didn't know being the first person to take a onesie, especially a quarterback is one of the riskiest things you can actually do.
38:35Whenever everyone says, Oh, it's a safe bet. We know Josh Allen's going to finish here.
38:39Blah, blah, blah, blah. I agree. Josh Allen's a beast.
38:42And he's probably going to be a top two quarterback this year.
38:45Cause he's done that the last like six years.
38:48But the problem is in your particular draft from a cost standpoint, you run the risk and just a, a, a totality, what the league looks like perspective.
38:56You run the risk of devaluing that pick when you're the first person to make that choice.
39:00JJ, I can't believe you've been doing this like 12, 14, 15 years at this point, 10 years, and you still have
39:07the same like vigor in your voice when you talk about it.
39:10I love it. I love it, man. Yes. No, it's what we said at the top.
39:14It's like, this is our job and it's like, like I, if you're not passionate about this stuff, number one, like if
39:20you're not really enthusiastic about fantasy football, someone's going to take your job because this is a competitive space.
39:26Everyone wants to do this and I get it.
39:28Right. But my gosh, I love this game. Like it's so, cause it, it, it, to me, like, as I, especially as
39:34I've gotten older, like critical thinking is such a powerful, important part of like the human existence.
39:39Right. And like, we don't get to do it in, you know, every single thing that we do.
39:44And, you know, if you're, if you're a parent, right?
39:47Like you're, you're, you know, I got a three-year-old, I got a seven-year-old and you know, there's some things where they're like,
39:53you know, I have to critically think about how I'm making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich or something.
39:58It's routine. Yeah. Right. And there's a lot of that that you go through without your life.
40:03But like, I feel very lucky that we have a, a job and a, a subject that we're working with where we
40:09can get very, very deep with this stuff if you're willing to do so.
40:13Right. Yeah. But I, again, it's, it's very, your passion's losing out.
40:16It's contagious. And when I, you know, I referee high school basketball and a lot of times like the, the referees are
40:22out there, they're like frowning and they're arguing and they're, you know, they're standoffish that I get coaches always say to me, they say, you're always like smiling.
40:30I said, well, I'm, I'm enjoying this man, you know, it's like, yeah.
40:33So that, and that's, that's the kind of energy I get from you.
40:37Now back to, back to what we were talking about is, uh, you know what the Josh Allen pick makes sense.
40:43It makes sense when you hate everything else on the board.
40:46Right. Exactly. So you get into the third round and you're like, oh, there's a dip.
40:50Yeah. Right. Yeah. I really don't want, I mean, I like Devante Smith, but you're like, I really don't want to take Devante Smith in the third round.
40:58I'll just take Josh Allen. Cause it's 38, it's 28 points, you know, in a game.
41:02You know, it's safe. Right. Right. Versus Devante Smith.
41:05I'm going to find two rounds later, I'm going to get Devante Adams or whoever, you know, the, the really frustrating part
41:11with this is that in a, in a more casual league where, you know, there's going to be some falling values at running back and wide receiver.
41:18Cause there, you know, people aren't doing the same research, you know, et cetera, et cetera.
41:23That's actually when you probably should go earlier around quarterback and like take that shot because, because number one, you know, this
41:29is what's going on in best ball right now too, where the, the backend QB ones, the high end QB twos are going well.
41:36Way earlier than they've gone historically. I mean, it started to happen last year in best ball, but them going earlier means
41:42that the higher end quarterbacks actually become more valuable.
41:44Right. Because if, if you get Josh Allen and you know, the absolute inverse of what I was talking about before, if
41:50you get Josh Allen in round three, and then all of a sudden up until Brock Purdy is gone at the end
41:56of round five, then you got a massive value in drafting Josh Allen there.
42:00Right. Because people are spending almost, you know, very close to the same kind of draft capital and, and allocation on Brock Purdy, who is fine.
42:07He's not Josh Allen as Josh Allen and what you got with Allen.
42:11So like, it's about, you know, it's, it's just like, you want to go into a more casual environment and be like,
42:17Oh, I don't need to get quarterback. Cause it's going to be easy to pick one off late, which I do think
42:23later on quarterback is going to probably be a pretty good strategy this year, but like, you know, it's just a, it's,
42:29it's so it's just, there's a lot of that like context and, and individualized, like thinking about that particular league that needs
42:35to go on for it to dictate what your draft strategy really should be.
42:39Yeah. You just said this and I'm looking at the ADP of the, uh, the quarterbacks and the elite quarterbacks are about
42:45two to three rounds cheaper than they've ever been.
42:48Right. Maybe sometimes in some cases four, but the floor, the price of the depth of the quarterbacks and that's, and that's
42:54a function of after the first three or four quarterbacks that no one's really seeing a difference between, or maybe even deeper.
43:00Like someone says, yeah, I do like Dak. I do like Justin Herbert, but if I can get the spike weeks from
43:06a Baker Mayfield and Tyler shook, it's fine. I, especially in best world where you never have to call the shot, right?
43:12Like that's the worst part about fantasy football and you get a gazillion, uh, start sick questions.
43:17It's like, do I start Jordan love with the great matchup or do I start, you know, Jackson dart, who's playing a tough defense.
43:23You're like, gee, I have no idea. Like, and then you're just kind of guessing and then you give people all these caveats and percentages.
43:30But I think that's what happens when you don't have to call the shot and you just get Sam Darnold's a 27 point game.
43:37You know, I think that's the advantage and that's why.
43:40And also remember, even though we call them onesie positions, tight end and quarterback that in best ball, it essentially is a two quarterback league, right?
43:47Everyone needs minimum. Yeah. I mean like the, the position dries up, right?
43:50Like that, the, the, the panic, the panic in best ball.
43:54Is really, I think what drives the, you know, the, the, the high end to mid range QB two up in price
44:00is that in our season long league, who cares?
44:02Those guys are going to go undrafted like Baker Mayfield in a regular home league this year is not going to get
44:08drafted more than likely, you know, in, in a lot of those leagues.
44:12Now you got to react if like, cause I'm in a, you know, I'm in a home league, a local league here that's 14 teams.
44:19And I know that people are going to take backup quarterbacks.
44:22So I have to at least be a little bit careful about getting too out of control with, you know, not drafting
44:28a quarterback because wave, the waiver wires actually, actually is thin, but in 95% of leagues, like those guys won't go, but
44:34in best ball right now, it's, it's a completely different beast, which is, you know, do you, have you found like, since
44:40you're doing the, the, the radio stuff and you're talking to people and there's, it's just a much different dynamic than what I'm probably experiencing.
44:47Um, have you found that it's been a little bit obnoxious about how best ball has seeped into the way that people
44:53are looking at season long as well? Has that been a thing that you've, or has it, has it been pretty separate?
44:59No, no, you nailed it, man. You nailed it because best ball is, uh, by the way, when you're talking about like,
45:05just like traditional leagues is that Yahoo did a study and even in like seasonal leagues, 1.9 quarterbacks per team on Yahoo leagues.
45:12So again, yeah, I use Yahoo because that's where a lot of like, let's say people that are more casual about it.
45:18Right. Yeah. So yeah. And, and with, uh, best ball is seeped in and best ball is like the greatest way to prepare for your season long draft.
45:25But what I think was, and guys like you were talking about this doing on, on videos and on content is that
45:31it really is two different games, right? It is.
45:34And the, yeah, but I mean, the players go in a similar order, but the roster construction is a little bit different, but you're right, man.
45:41The way we play best ball. See, I, I fell into this about four years ago cause I've always been, you know,
45:47not by the way, when I used to say I played in 50 best ball leagues, that used to be a lot.
45:53Now it's like, uh, yeah, now I'm like, you know, I barely play.
45:57Right. It's funny. Uh, but yeah, no, the way I was playing best ball, I was bringing into redraft and because the
46:03strategy is so different that you can, you have access to the waiver wire and that you have to do start sits.
46:09It was screwing up my redraft leagues and I was losing for a little while until I again, adjusted.
46:14So yes, we are seeing those two types of strategies merge when they really should be talked about as two separate things.
46:20I think it's on us as analysts to make sure we're making that separation for people too.
46:25And I get annoyed like straight up. I'm like, I'll, I'll tell the analysts sometimes too.
46:29I'm like, bro, you're talking about this as if like, this is the strategy that people are, are, are deploying and using in season long.
46:36But it's, it's not the same. It's not the same at all.
46:40Like you can look, I think best ball is really great for understanding, you know, like you said, within the position where
46:46guys should go and like, like, you know, like where guys are generally ranked.
46:50Like you could probably, cause best ball is pretty sharp, especially this time of year.
46:54You could probably use best ball ADP as straight up positional rankings and, and have an edge right.
46:59Right. Over what, you know, your, your buddy from accounting who doesn't do any research is going to show up in August
47:05with some list that is just very generic and doesn't, isn't very helpful.
47:08But yeah, where these guys go overall is really the problem.
47:12Yeah. And I think also I've always adopted that just say like in a contained best ball, cause a lot, when we
47:18talk best ball now, there's also, everyone assumes it's these giant contests where there's hundreds of thousands.
47:22I still do a lot of best ball where it's like, you know, the smaller groups I play in the big tournaments
47:28too, but like where only the top two get a cash or a cash.
47:32And I still think in those types of leagues, you've got to push up the running backs that definitely have jobs because
47:38you don't, the volatile wide receivers, you don't want them in your traditional home league, but it doesn't matter as much as on best.
47:45Exactly. You never have to call the shot. What's the worst, you see, what's the worst part about fantasy football?
47:51I've said it before is deciding, you know, which wide receiver three and four to choose from.
47:55Like when someone says, Hey, should I start Michael Pittman this week or Matthew Golden?
47:59Right. Oh, I have no idea, but I don't have to call that shot, but that's why I'm taking like a breeze
48:05hole in round two in best ball. If I'm picking towards the end of the round, cause I just want running backs.
48:12I know have jobs, three down work rule, you know, that type of stuff.
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49:24All right, I want to go through some scenarios across the league right now where we have teammates that are being drafted relatively close to each other.
49:31And I want to see how you feel one way or another about these guys.
49:35Because I think this is a, you know, this number one, this is a question like every week when I ask for
49:41mailbag questions, it's always scenarios like this where they're, you know, someone's like, which player out of this backfield or which player,
49:47you know, amongst this wide receiver room do you like more?
49:51So we'll start out with probably, you know, one of the bigger ones this year is Luther Burden versus Roma Dunze.
49:56How sick is it going to be when either one of these guys has a good week one?
50:01And because this, this is like split the country, right?
50:04I mean, politics unites us more than the Luther versus Rome thing at this point.
50:08I'm team Rome, you know, and all of the under the hood, smart metrics favor Luther Burden here.
50:13But I don't know. He just had longer chemistry with, with the Roma Dunze.
50:17I'm talking about Caleb Williams, of course. Now he wasn't Ben Johnson's pick.
50:21He inherited him. And I do think that means something, you know, Luther and Colston were his picks.
50:26But I mean, those first four weeks before the injury, they would look good.
50:30What was he about a 15, 18 point? Oh, it was great.
50:33Yeah. So man, I, you know, I'm also a little biased.
50:36I made a bad trade where I acquired Rome.
50:38So I kind of need this to happen or else, you know, a lot of things are going to go wrong for
50:44me, but I'm scared to death to draft Luther Burden.
50:47I'm scared to death not to draft Luther Burden.
50:50That's, I think that's a healthy way to look at it.
50:53Like I, it really like comes down to like, you know, if you're in a, in a shallower league where you start
50:59two wide receivers, two running backs, one tight end, no flex, let's say, you know, just something like really, really shallow.
51:05Although I think that going after players like Luther Burden is, is easier because you're not going to have to rely on
51:11them and you can just shoot for the ceiling.
51:13Like, I mean, I'm a burden guy in general, so like, I'm just going to get them, but there's a very clear downside case here.
51:20Like very, very clear downside case. Are you straight up going Rome over Burden or is this a cost thing?
51:26I don't have to, right? Like I don't, and it's so hard for me to say, oh, if they, if you have
51:32to pick in a vacuum, which one would you pick?
51:34Like, and it's, it's, I just don't have to make that choice.
51:38But I mean, yeah, if I'm forced to, and you're asking me a question, I'm going to say Rome, but I don't
51:44feel good about this pick at all. It's like, it's terrible.
51:47Now this reminds me a lot of Travion Henderson last year, right?
51:50All of a sudden he was a fourth round pick as a rookie.
51:54Then he was a third. And then the NFFC, they were taking him in the second round.
51:59I was like, oh my God, this is crazy.
52:01I was getting scared that people that plunking down $1,500 for drafts are taking him.
52:05Then I saw him go with the one, two turn.
52:08So I'm getting that same FOMO confusion about Luther Burden, but yeah, I guess straight up, I'll take Rome, but I have no confidence in that.
52:15Yeah. I think there's a very real chance by the time August hits, Luther Burden is like a two, three turn type player.
52:21You know what I mean? Like, and that, that scares the crap out of me as, as one of the biggest burden truthers out there.
52:28Cause I love them as a prospect, you know, you know, all of that to be clear.
52:33I don't think that in all of these scenarios, cause like I don't have a player, like I, I still like drafting a dunze.
52:40You know, like I still think that a dunze is a pretty good pick because I recognize all of the different outcomes
52:46that can happen with the bears offense this year, or at least I'm hoping to recognize.
52:50And I think that there is an outcome where a dunze is, is a better player and more productive player than what the market's suggesting.
52:57And you notice JJ, like when you pick Luther Burden in a draft room, you get the hipster high five pick.
53:03You get the good pick. In the chat, when you pick a dunze, it's like, yeah, next nobody's, you know, nobody's going
53:09to congratulate you and say good pick in the chat.
53:12Yeah. Well, do you feel the same way then about Brian Thomas versus Parker Washington?
53:16Is this, is this a very similar situation for you?
53:19This is the same thing except that a BTJ.
53:21Oh yeah, you're right. It really is the same thing except BTJ just has like, you know, stink all over him at this point.
53:28Right. At least a dunze had the split last year.
53:31Right. Right. And Parker Washington also has the anchor pulling him backwards or underneath based on like where he, that he was
53:37what a day three real NFL pick. And that, you know, listen, but all of the, you know, if you, if you're
53:43a coach speak, uh, player, I tend to favor code.
53:46Like when certain coaches say things, it seems like Parker Washington's in, but there's a lot more, I would say it's a
53:52lot more crowded, but there's still a lot of options over in Chicago too.
53:56I think Parker Washington, given that his, was he about a fifth or probably six round pick at this point?
54:01I've seen him go in the 60. I've taken them in the six or maybe seventh.
54:05If I got lucky. I think that that's more like you can swallow that cost a little bit to get burden.
54:11You just said like, there's no way Parker Washington's going up to the two, three turn.
54:16It's not happening. Yeah. So it's a little bit of a different kind of conversation because you have your, your core five
54:22players already set when you draft Parker Washington. So I want to take the gamble on Parker Washington.
54:27I like what I saw. I like all the forward momentum with him and you know who, who likes him Trevor Lawrence to target him.
54:34So I'm more bullish on, on the success of Washington than I would be on burden, even though there's more upside clearly
54:40with Luther burden and Brian Thomas, he seems like he's going to be one of the best values if he hits this year.
54:46So I want to kind of move further down the list, but I do think it's an interesting conversation because there was a little bit of a discussion.
54:54Dwayne McFarland sent a tweet about Michael Wilson versus Parker Washington over the weekend or like late last week.
54:59So we have Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, Michael Wilson is, has been falling a little bit.
55:04So there's a little bit more of a gap than there was like, like two or three months ago and their ADP.
55:10Do you have a strong lean there? And do you feel like the Michael Wilson situation is very like Parker Washington or
55:16do you think there are some differences there? Well, this is a whole new regime in Arizona now, right?
55:22It's like, so that this is similar to where I said about Roma Dunes, where they're happy to have Marvin Harrison, but they didn't take right there.
55:29There is a difference when you inherit someone versus when you made the pick and same obviously for Michael Wilson.
55:34But man, I thought I was being contrarian in early draft season, taking Michael Wilson ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
55:40But it seems like that this is another one of those 50-50 splits.
55:44I still think, you know, Marvin Harrison, you have to look at the pedigree.
55:47It just, it can't be this bad. The guy was, you know, I just, it's a lesson learned in Dynasty 2, JJ.
55:54Guy was wide receiver four before he took a snap.
55:56Man, that was a mistake. But I think I would still leave Marv, lean Marv.
56:00But man, have I, I've gone back and forth with these guys too.
56:04And it seems like, you know, you can kind of get them both.
56:08They go similar pricing, but if you're drafting on the hook and you're creating these stacks, you can try to get them both.
56:14But Marv is the answer. Yeah. I get so worried about Michael, my comp for Michael Wilson, not as like a player,
56:20but just like a season comp of what he did in 2025 is 2024 Jerry Judy.
56:25Oh, that's good. That's my fear. Right. That's good.
56:27Because, because we saw the split with Judy and Winston, right?
56:30That year, Jameis Winston. And we saw Judy play, have better numbers when Cedric Tillman was out that year.
56:35Like when, when injuries around him occurred, that's when he saw some more of his spiked weeks.
56:40And the same thing kind of happened with Michael Wilson last year with Marvin Harrison Jr.
56:44Like Michael Wilson with Jacoby. Like, I think the split has always been for people, Michael Wilson with Jacoby Brissett.
56:50But really when Jacoby Brissett was under center and Marvin Harrison ran 80% or more of their routes.
56:55So he was not, you know, didn't have appendicitis and all this other, these other issues.
56:59There was only three games of that happening last year where Marvin Harrison Jr.
57:03Ran 80% or more of their routes with Jacoby Brissett under center.
57:07And then obviously Michael Wilson playing. Michael Wilson didn't score double digit points in any of those games.
57:12Yeah, that's revealing. I do think Michael Wilson is like better than what we expect, you know, what we saw from him
57:18the first handful of years of his career. With that being said, the difference to me with him and Parker Washington, this
57:24is what Dwayne was kind of talking about. Because Dwayne brought up very, very like in a smart way, like he should bring this up.
57:31Is that when we've seen these players who haven't done anything historically and then they have these spiked, you know, chunks of a season.
57:37How do they then perform? And Dwayne was basically saying like, hey guys, these guys usually suck the next year.
57:43You know, like they're usually, it's usually, it usually is a blip.
57:46And my point with Parker Washington was that, because look, this isn't an anti-Brian Thomas take.
57:51But you're pro Parker, right? You're pro Parker Washington?
57:53I think that Parker Washington, the difference between him and Michael Wilson is that his peripherals with Jacoby Myers and Brian Thomas playing last year were excellent.
58:00All like, like I made the, I made the comment that the difference between Parker Washington and Michael Wilson is that they
58:07both needed an injury for something more to happen.
58:09Right. The difference though, is that Parker Washington, the injury to Travis Hunter was what allowed the Jags to realize what they had in Parker Washington.
58:16Whereas the injury to Marvin Harrison Jr. Allowed Michael Wilson to just get gobbles and gobbles of volume.
58:21And he wasn't efficient. His yards per hour run wasn't very strong last year.
58:25You know, it wasn't that, that amazing. Whereas Parker Washington in a really good ecosystem and environment with a good competition was
58:31thriving at times, you know, and he had a really good yards per hour run rate.
58:36And he was really, so like that backbone makes me feel more comfortable with Parker Washington than Michael Wilson.
58:41But it scares me too, because obviously, you know, Michael Wilson showed us that he had a really high ceiling.
58:46It's just that I'm trying to just be as rational as I can with that, that, that Wilson situation.
58:52See, this is goes back to what we talked about in the beginning of this podcast where, you know, you have to
58:58have a process, but be willing like to, when there's nuances involved.
59:01Now, Dwayne made the factual statement that these guys usually just go off the map after they have a spike month.
59:07Right. And you're saying, and then you kind of logic did out where this is why Parker Washington doesn't fit that exact pattern.
59:13Right. So as much, at least, you know, like I can certainly see it.
59:17Like, I think that the answer to a lot of the Jacksonville stuff is to draft Trevor Lawrence, you know, like it, like just capture it that way.
59:25Or if you're playing best ball, get one of these guys and as many drafts as you can or stack them, whatever.
59:31I think it's going to be I'm going to get my exposure and maybe there's a cop out, but I'm going to
59:37get a lot more of my exposure to the Jags wide receiver room and best ball than I will in season long,
59:43because I think it could be a headache week to week.
59:46You don't have to call the shot. Right. Yeah.
59:49Right. Yeah. I'm even getting some of the Travis Hunter stuff, too.
59:52I'm you know, I was getting that's a pick you get laughed at when you meet you just going back to the Cardinals wide receivers.
59:59You're assuming Jacoby Brissett week one started here. Like, I'm not.
60:02I'm not. That's all right. Yeah, that's that's certainly another part of the variance of of that profile.
60:07And I think Carson Beck's going to start at some point this year.
60:10Like, like, I think there's a better chance than not.
60:13Right. What's the under over on game started in JJ Zachary since sports book for Carson Beck starts?
60:18I would say five and a half. I was going to say four and a half.
60:23I'll take I'll take the over on four and a half.
60:26And I'd still take I'd say probably half the season.
60:28Right. Yeah. Around like, I think that there's a very real possibility that happens and you're already running into the issue right
60:35now with the contract stuff with Brissett. So like there's that to me, there's there's, you know, like like that was why
60:41I think even in our in our four quarterback league, I took Carson Beck and like this.
60:45He held it like the second round in that league.
60:48And I, I, I grabbed him because there's going to be an opportunity for him to do something.
60:53And even those players, because like Arizona realistically is probably gonna be bad this year.
60:57Then they'll have a high pick next year and more than likely going to take a quarterback.
61:02Like that's, that's the, like we can all see this.
61:05That's likely. Right. But Tyler shook outcome is like, is, is possible too.
61:08It could, that could happen. Or Carson Beck shows something and now they have a trade asset or something that they could,
61:14they could deal, you know, like dangle and try to try to work with.
61:18So like, yes. And, but like, that would be like, I think Carson Beck is a problem for Marvin Harrison Jr.
61:24And Michael Wilson and Jeremiah Love and what that Arizona offense might do.
61:28I've leaned Marvin Harrison Jr. More comfortably just because at least we can tell a story that they used them poorly.
61:33And he had the backbone, like you said, of just being a really like, you know, he obviously hasn't lived up the expectation.
61:40He's been okay enough. He just, he's been, he's, he's played more like a mid to late first round pick, you know,
61:46as, as a, as a player so far and not the elite, you know, what we expect out of the top five pick.
61:52But, you know, what if they unlock him and what it like, there's, there's at least more of that pedigree that makes
61:58me feel more comfortable about drafting him. Isn't there a 15, 20% chance that Carson Beck is good enough where they, the
62:04Arizona gets the third pick and the quarterbacks go one, two and they take Jeremiah Smith, you know, something possible.
62:10Yeah, it's possible. So there, there, there, there are other outs, which is why I wanted to throw, I mean, in my
62:16super flex league, especially in this and rookie drafts this year where the running backs and wide receivers were just weak.
62:22You know, you get to the second round. I'm, you know, most of these second rounds, especially mid to late second round.
62:28I'm taking car. I have a lot of Carson Beck because I don't think he's going to hit.
62:33It's just, this is the, this is the, the game theory side of things, you know?
62:37Yeah. I think you and I have previously talked about, but I would take Carson back in a rookie draft as high as 112.
62:44Yeah. I, I, I understand. Yeah. I get the logic.
62:47I get the logic. The minute he starts, there's something you could do there.
62:51And Lord forbid, he's got a two 50 and two with no interceptions in that first game.
62:55Now you're talking about a top 20 dynasty quarterback, but there'll be pushback because of Arizona doesn't have a lot of wins.
63:01Then you're right. There's always that threat that he's going to get Josh Rosen.
63:05Yeah. And I think it's very obvious us saying this, like, that's not the likely outcome.
63:10You know, the likely outcome is he sucks or, or he doesn't, you know, he just doesn't do much, but that's, that's
63:16the likely outcome for a lot of the second round wide receivers.
63:19Anyway, and it's a likely outcome for even high pedigree quarterbacks that they're more likely to fail than not like cam Ward.
63:25Like if he wasn't the one-on-one, you'd be like, right now.
63:28Exactly. All right. Let's go to Pittsburgh and look at that backfield.
63:31I'm curious how you look at, at Jalen Warren versus Rico Dotto.
63:35We'll get a couple more of these in. Okay.
63:37Yeah. Super quick is that I'm, I'm nervous about Jalen Warren.
63:40He got, he was supposed to be the alpha guy last year, gets thrown out of the way by Kenny Gamewell, more or less.
63:47Who's an efficiency monster, right? Jalen Warren's a good player.
63:50Like you want him. He's perfectly good, but Rico Dotto, they bring him in.
63:54They don't bring in anybody else of, of note.
63:56Rico Dotto familiarity with Mike McCarthy, trust him. Right.
63:59So I would say that this is probably a classic split and that both guys are solid picks, but in a, you know, I want Rico Dotto here.
64:06And I think that the market mostly agrees. He's more likely to have more touchdowns.
64:10I would say more carries. And again, though, Jalen Warren's a good player, but every time we think it's Jalen Warren season,
64:17it's like, oh yeah, but this happens. Oh yeah, but this happens.
64:20So although Jalen Warren, I know he's got his fans and I'd be happy to have him on my team.
64:25This is Rico Dotto. I think we can, Rico Dotto was like a weak winner last year.
64:30I don't remember ever saying Jalen Warren weak winner.
64:33And then you mentioned Kenneth Gainwell. I think I saw an interesting take from you on social media.
64:38Let's hear that the Bucky Irving versus Kenneth Gainwell.
64:40Yeah. I mean, Kenneth Gainwell was about 4.7 yards every time he touches the football.
64:44Do you remember that game that nobody knew that he was going to be replacing Jalen Warren?
64:49It was an international game. You woke up and Kenneth Gainwell basically broke fantasy, broke DFS.
64:53Bucky Irving was a fourth round pick who had a good year.
64:57Very similar to like Damian Pierce a couple years ago.
64:59I like Bucky Irving, but man, there was questions last year when he was going.
65:04Bucky Irving was going in the second round of fantasy drafts.
65:07Could he hold up? The answer was no. I like to see these guys do it.
65:11Who's Bucky Irving, right? Like he had his best year when Liam Cohn was there.
65:15Look, then Liam Cohn goes to Jacksonville and Trevor Travis Etienne has his good year.
65:19Bucky Irving's great. Good player. But Kenneth Gainwell was given the motherlode contract right here.
65:23Seven million bucks a year. You know what I'm saying?
65:26For a guy of that. But it's more than we thought he was going to get.
65:31I think that Kenneth Gainwell, I'm betting on him to be more productive in fantasy football than Bucky Irving.
65:36And I think that this thing is a 50-50 split where I think that the general market looking at is like a 70-30 Bucky thing.
65:43There's a very real chance that Bucky Irving is a between the 20s guy and that's terrible for fantasy football, right?
65:49Where Kenneth Gainwell is the pass catcher and he obviously played that role last year very well.
65:53And Sean Tucker plays goal line stuff and gets some goal line stuff.
65:57That's a very real possibility too. And then all of a sudden that leaves Bucky Irving.
66:01And not only that, the workload concerns I think are only validated by these injuries that he's gotten over the last year
66:07and that he's coming back from right now. That's only enhanced the feeling that he's not going to necessarily be the bell
66:14cow that he was down the stretch during his rookie year.
66:17Yeah. I mean, when we started doing drafts, JJ, in February, Bucky Irving was like a two, three turn pick and then just falling.
66:23Was he settling in like that late fourth round?
66:26Something like that right now? About this. I mean, on DraftKings, he's falling even more just because of the injury stuff.
66:31Like he's firmly in the fifth. He's, I go down, when I do my draft rankings, I go to, for drafting, I
66:38go down to Bucky Irving and I cross him off.
66:40And I have game well on literally every single team because again, I give them a 50-50 shot to compete here and
66:46the market's treating it like it's not that. So gain well to the moon this year in my, that'll, that'll be, I
66:53guess what we call a flag plant, right? Yes.
66:55Well, that's what I was going to say. You like the last question I want to ask you is a bold take
67:01for what we could see in 2026. Would that be your bold take?
67:05No, that's not bold. So I, you know, it's funny.
67:07I said, I talked a little gain well with somebody that said, oh, that's vanilla ice cream.
67:12I said, vanilla ice cream. That's not a vanilla ice cream take.
67:15So I want to ask you, do you want medium spice?
67:19You want real spice? I mean, I got, give me the real spice.
67:22Okay. The real spice. And I'm not saying this just to like, you know, sensationalize.
67:26I really do believe Tank Dell, the wide receiver who missed all of last year, by all means coming back is set
67:32up to be a top 25 wide receiver in fantasy football.
67:35I would even say maybe higher. He was about a 15 point per game for his catastrophic injury.
67:40I don't think the rookies that the Houston Texans drafted, they looked fine, but they didn't look like they were going to be the future of the franchise.
67:48Nico Collins gets his extension. He's the true alpha, but he showed the Tank Dell showed that he could exist.
67:54Now, if he's even back to even somewhat with what he was, CJ Stroud had a real connection with him.
67:59My hot take is that you could pick the round you want Tank Dell.
68:03He's coming back. Leader of the locker room type of guy.
68:06I'm going Tank Dell is a top 25 wide receiver in 2026 fantasy football.
68:10Yeah, that's spicy. That's spicy. I mean, it really comes down to the recovery though.
68:14So I get it. Makes sense. Alan, this was amazing.
68:17It was really great to have you on. Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're working on and all that good stuff.
68:24I got, I was part of the boomer hack on Twitter where they stole my Twitter account and you were generous enough
68:30to push out my, to let people know. So it's Alan underscore Soslowski.
68:33I'm now part of the dreaded underscore community on Twitter.
68:36And, uh, you know, I had, I didn't have a huge following on Twitter.
68:40I had a few thousand people, but I spent 10 years building that damn account up JJ.
68:45And now I'm starting it from scratch. And yeah, I know you're saying this guy clicked on a link.
68:50These, these hackers, they're getting very clever. How they're getting clever, man.
68:53They're getting good. It's scary out there. I think I was a lesson for you.
68:57You're not clicking on any links at this point.
69:00Oh, I don't click a thing. I get random DMs from people and I'm like, I know what's going on.
69:06Exactly. And then you go and you look at their profile and it's just all crypto stuff.
69:10You're like, yeah, yeah, there's something happening here. So also promote Sirius XM satellite radio.
69:14I'm on channel 87, uh, up until July, do this dynasty show one to three Eastern.
69:19And then after that, we'll be on, uh, in the road to wire slot doing traditional radio.
69:23If you have satellite channel 87 is the fantasy sports channel or anytime on the, on the Twitter.
69:28And, uh, so let me, let's say you just, before we go here, I want your hot take.
69:33Cause I know you're not a hot take artist.
69:36I'm not a hot take. I know. So this is uncomfortable for you.
69:40I think my hot take right now, you know what?
69:42Since we were talking about it, I'll say that, that Jalen Waddle finishes as a top eight.
69:47Is that, is that cool? Say it, say it, say it.
69:50I'll say, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll plant the flag a little bit on Jalen Waddle.
69:55Spoiler. He'll be a, he'll be a player to target in the draft guide this year.
69:59Will you, will you be an extra pain? If the player you traded me for Eli Stowers is a top eight wide receiver?
70:06Process over results. You're, you're what they, what my grandmother would call a mensch, JJ.
70:10That is a very big compliment. You can, anyone out there, you can Google it.
70:14It's Yiddish. Thank you. Thank you. I appreciate it.
70:16I appreciate all of you for listening to, uh, make sure you're checking out the new late round.com, becoming a member, checking
70:22out the members hub, taking a look at the late round draft guide.
70:26That will be out July 10th this year. Need a little bit of extra time.
70:30It's usually July 1st, but I needed a little bit extra time just given all the changes going on at late round,
70:36but that will be out on July 10th. Lot of new stuff in there, uh, that I'm very excited about.
70:42So check it out. Late round.com. Otherwise everyone, as usual, thanks for tuning in.
70:46Hey, it's Erin Andrews from Calm Down with Erin and Krissa.
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71:00It blows flaky 5G home internet out of the water.
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71:23Paramount Plus is now the home of all your BET favorites.
71:26What? With all new episodes of Tyler Perry's Divorce Sisters.
71:29You've always liked a little drama. Plus a whole new world of movies like Gladiator 2.
71:33Now I will control an empire. Original series like The Chi.
71:36Just make sure we protect each other. And live sports like UFC.
71:40Welcome to the history books! New home, same family.
71:42Your BET favorites are now on Paramount Plus. Subscribe now.
71:45This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.