1116: Mailbag - Breece Hall's Value, Ambiguous Backfields, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 14, 2026
Published
Fri, August 14, 2026
9
Player insights
8
Players mentioned
Topics
Rhamondre StevensonBreece HallChris GodwinJ.K. DobbinsJonah ColemanRJ HarveySam LaPortaTreVeyon Henderson
Player analysis
Player insights
Breece Hall
PositiveProjection2:14
JJ Zachariason ranks Breece Hall as the RB13, noting that while the situation in New York is risky, Hall is a talented three-down bell cow who saw a 77% rush share and 10.7% target share last season. Zachariason believes the offense could improve with Geno Smith, and Hall has room to see more work as a pass catcher.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveValue16:45
JJ Zachariason suggests that Chris Godwin is a better pick than Sam LaPorta in the middle rounds, even if LaPorta is projected for slightly more PPR points. The reasoning is that wide receivers are higher-demand positions where you cannot easily find comparable talent later in the draft.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
PositiveBust30:51
JJ Zachariason is out on J.K. Dobbins, citing his low ceiling, limited usage as a receiver (sub-5% target share), and significant injury history. He notes that even when Dobbins was the starter last year, he only averaged 11.6 PPR points per game, which is not league-winning production.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveSleeper34:01
JJ Zachariason plans to have the most exposure to Jonah Coleman out of the Chargers backfield, viewing him as a viable late-round dart throw.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveRole21:19
JJ Zachariason prefers Rhamondre Stevenson over his backfield counterpart because Stevenson has proven he can handle pass protection and reliable work in negative game scripts, whereas the other option has not demonstrated that capability to the New England coaching staff.
Insight pagePositiveRole35:14
JJ Zachariason prefers Rhamondre Stevenson over TreVeyon Henderson because Stevenson is the reliable option for pass protection, which is necessary given the Patriots' expected negative game scripts due to a tough schedule.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveSleeper33:22
JJ Zachariason finds R.J. Harvey more appetizing than J.K. Dobbins due to a smaller ADP gap and more upside in his profile regarding burst, youth, and receiving potential, despite not being a great runner last year.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
NegativeValue15:31
JJ Zachariason advises against drafting Sam LaPorta in the middle rounds (9th-12th) to play in a flex spot if you already have a starting tight end. He argues that this handcuffs your roster flexibility and ignores the opportunity cost of missing out on wide receivers or running backs who are more critical for depth and trade leverage.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
NegativeRole35:25
JJ Zachariason notes that while TreVeyon Henderson is explosive and has contingent upside as a year-two player, he has not yet proven he can handle the pass-protection duties required in the Patriots' offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. I'm on the road all season long and when i'm finally home in the summer
0:07the last thing i want is internet that can't keep up.
0:11And with everyone home and online all day streaming calls, the whole thing the one thing that can't slow down is the internet.
0:18That's why having fast reliable internet that can keep up really matters and why you need Optimum famously fast fiber of the internet.
0:25powered internet. Optimum fiber blows flaky 5G out of the water and keeps its cool with the fastest and most reliable speeds
0:33that don't slow down when things heat up. And right now they have the deal of the summer, just $30 a month for five years.
0:41So don't wait. Call 866-9-Optimum. Visit Optimum.com or stop by your local Optimum store today.
0:45Famously fast fiber powered internet for $30 a month for five years.
0:49Can't beat it. Terms apply. See Optimum.com for details.
0:52This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysen.
0:56What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen. In this episode 1116 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in.
1:03Before getting to the mailbag questions this week, I just want to send another reminder to check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
1:10There's over 270 pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways to spot breakouts and busts, players to target, players to avoid, and more.
1:18You get cheat sheets with the guide, and the guide is updated every week, and it goes directly to your email inbox when the guide is updated.
1:27You can learn more about it over on lateroound.com.
1:30The first question this week is from Ranch Dressing in the Members Hub.
1:34It says, Hi JJ and crew. I was looking at the rankings, and one thing that stood out was Breece Hall being
1:41ranked a number of spots ahead of current ADP.
1:44He seems like a very risky running back given his past usage as well as the offense he plays in.
1:50He could be a good value where he's currently going, but I have a hard time clicking his name due to the factors listed above.
1:58Out of the top 14 running backs, he's got the biggest delta.
2:02I would love your insight on him and what you are seeing.
2:06Thanks for everything you do. Yeah, I mean look, part of that is because I have him ranked as the RB14, and
2:13when you talk about early round running backs, there's just less volatility with the rankings in general.
2:19So with him being at the end of that range, there's more of a chance that there's differentiation versus ADP.
2:25No different than how a late round pick might be 20 running back spots higher than the market.
2:31That's just what happens as you get deeper into the draft.
2:35But that's beside the point. I've contemplated putting Brees Hall as a player to target in the draft guide.
2:41The reason I haven't is because of where my tiers sit with him, and the fact that I like so many wide receivers in that range.
2:49Even I'm not super overweight on Hall because of that.
2:52But yeah, I do think Brees Hall is at least an interesting option.
2:57First off, I do agree that the situation in New York is generally risky.
3:01Geno Smith, Frank Reich, the last time we saw these guys, it was bad.
3:06With that being said, we have a pretty stable backbone with Hall himself.
3:10He saw a 77% running back rush share last season to go along with a 10.7% target share.
3:16He's one of six players that hit a 70% running back rush share and a 10% target share last year.
3:22The other five were CMC, Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Gentry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs.
3:27The biggest problem for Hall was that the offense was complete garbage.
3:30The Jets were 29th in total yards last year, 30th in total touchdowns, 27th in plays run, and 29th in yards per play.
3:38The thesis here is that they could easily be better offensively with Geno Smith under center.
3:43Of course, I'm not trying to predict greatness from Geno Smith.
3:47Look at what we saw last season. But I do think they're going to be better.
3:52And the Jets offensive line, it's not a huge problem for them at this point.
3:57This is also just where we're at with the running back landscape.
4:00After Derrick Henry, Devon Achan, Kenneth Walker, whoever that RB12 is in your draft, after that player's off the board, there's a pretty big gap to the RB13.
4:09Which, by the way, I think I said RB14 for Breece Hall earlier.
4:14I actually haven't met RB13. And maybe you want to throw Kyron Williams in there, or Cam Scadaboo in there, or maybe even Josh Jacobs.
4:22But literally, all of those running backs come with question marks.
4:25Hall has offensive situation questions. Though there was that report this past week, which was nice to see, that said Brees Hall
4:32is being treated as the bell cow. Although, to be fair, he kind of was treated that way last year.
4:39I just think that he has room to see more work as a pass catcher, because he's a very good pass catcher.
4:46But then Jeremiah Love. What's that backfield split really going to look like?
4:50Javante Williams was super inefficient as a receiver. Kyron Williams has Blake Corum to deal with.
4:55Cam Scadaboo has the injury, though I am pretty high on him.
4:59Josh Jacobs is a healthy Marshawn Lloyd now. He has a lot of seasons with a lot of touches.
5:05And he has off-the-field stuff too. So it's really just me trying to bring all of that together and say, hey, I
5:12think Brees Hall is extremely talented and really good at the position.
5:16And we've seen evidence of him being a true three-down bell cow back.
5:20His situation might be a little bit better this year, so I'll rank him in that RB13 spot.
5:26Do I feel unbelievably confident? No, not necessarily. Like I said, I think there's a drop-off to him.
5:32And that's why I haven't made him a player to target.
5:36I just don't want to force it. But I do think that he's a very good running back, and that's why I have him ranked there.
5:44This next question is from Blind Egghead. It says, How should managers balance market score with ADP during a draft?
5:50If market score identifies a player as undervalued, how aggressively should we draft him?
5:55For example, if a player has a fourth-round ADP, but market score suggests he's one of the best values on the board,
6:02would you ever take him in the third round, or do you generally trust ADP and wait?
6:08So I've gotten questions about market score and market score's application.
6:11Some people are asking why my rankings don't just reflect market score.
6:15Others are asking questions like this one. Now, this is all very new to late-round fantasy football and new to this audience.
6:22So I'm not surprised at all. I totally get it.
6:25And this isn't over. We're going to continue working on market score if that's something that you guys want.
6:31But I think people should just look at market score as just another metric.
6:36Just like yards per outrun is another metric. Or yards before contact per attempt, that's a metric.
6:41Market score is just another one. And like any metric, it's not flawless.
6:46But the reason I was into the idea of creating it was because so many fantasy managers draft off of ADP.
6:52And I said to myself, there's a market component here that's predictive.
6:56ADP is predictive. But what if we could enhance that and take it even further?
7:01Similar to what I do with the ZAP model and NFL draft capital.
7:05That's market score. So to your question of how aggressively you should draft them, I don't think that's the right question to ask.
7:13That makes it seem like you're drafting off of market score and wondering how aggressively you should stray away from ADP in the name of market score.
7:21Your question really should just be about rankings. My rankings are factoring in market score alongside other factors to help you guys out.
7:29Market score is predictive. We know it's predictive. But my rankings are too.
7:33And so it's no different than the answer that I give about my rankings.
7:38I have guys ranked generally where I would draft them.
7:41But if you think that you can extract value via ADP based on your room, go for it.
7:47I talk about how to do that in the draft guide every single year.
7:51But it's not really a market score question here.
7:54It's a rankings question. But I do want to again point out that market score is simply another tool for you guys to analyze the game.
8:02And it's something I can talk about on this show.
8:06I still think that market score comps are really fun to dig into and analyze.
8:10In the end, I'm using it as a helper, not as my everything.
8:15And look guys, full transparency. If it's something that people end up not liking or that we want to move on from after this draft season's over.
8:23Because market score becomes irrelevant once the season starts.
8:26But if that's the case, that's cool too. I've heard a lot of good feedback.
8:31But there are some people out there who have voiced their opinion on the other side of that.
8:37Who don't like market score. Who don't care for it.
8:40All I'm trying to do here is to innovate and give you guys the best experience with this fantasy football hobby.
8:47Hopefully things hit and hopefully they work out. But I really don't think that people should use it as giving you the answer this season.
8:55That's just not how I see market score. It's just another tool to keep me honest and keep me level headed.
9:02This next question is from John. It says, Hey JJ and team.
9:06Really enjoy the pod and am a new subscriber after trying out the draft guide.
9:10Hey, welcome. Thank you. My question is, Later in some drafts, say around the 9th to 12th rounds, the wide receivers and running backs are less than appealing.
9:20My league allows us to play tight ends in the flex positions.
9:23For half PPR or full PPR, would it be a bad call to snag a falling tight end such as Kyle Pitts
9:31or Sam Laporta to play in a flex spot, assuming I've filled my tight end spot already?
9:36Thanks. So it's not necessarily a bad call, but it's not something that I tend to do very often.
9:42And here's why. It handcuffs you. The demand of the tight end position, it's low.
9:47We know this. You're usually only starting one of them in your league, but then you're starting two or three running backs,
9:54two or three wide receivers, if not more. So let's just run through an example here.
9:59Sam Laporta is going a couple spots ahead of Chris Godwin, according to Fantasy Pro's consensus ADP.
10:05Let's just pretend that Sam Laporta is projected to score like one and a half PPR points per game more than Chris Godwin.
10:12And you drafted Brock Bowers early. But you're staring at this part of the draft and you're saying, I'll take Laporta because
10:19he's projected to be better than Chris Godwin. I've seen a lot of analysis just stop right there.
10:25But I really disagree with that approach. It's completely ignoring how fantasy football is played.
10:30Now look, I think there are flaws to value over replacement player type formulas and strictly drafting in that way.
10:36But I write about this in the draft guide every year too.
10:40It's still a way to get a general grasp of positional value in your particular league by looking at VORP.
10:47Chris Godwin might be projected to score one and a half PPR points per game less than Sam Laporta.
10:53But he might still be the better pick in that spot, regardless of what you did early with Brock Bowers.
10:59And it's because of what you might be able to get later in your draft.
11:04If you can get a comparable tight end three rounds later, but you can't get a comparable wide receiver with your next
11:11pick, then the wide receiver is probably the better choice.
11:14You should go with Chris Godwin. Remember, when you start one quarterback or one tight end, the position falls in your draft.
11:22You can get usable players later. You can't do that with the higher in demand positions.
11:27It's why running backs and wide receivers get drafted so early in your fantasy drafts.
11:32So, okay. Now let's say that you're doing some VORP calculation, and there's a slight lean towards drafting Sam Laporta.
11:38In a slight lean instance, I'm probably still taking the wide receiver unless we're in a clear dart throw territory.
11:44Like if we're in a territory where the tight end is a player like Laporta, and the opportunity cost is a much more questionable player.
11:52But if you're talking like top seven, top eight rounds of your draft, I'd need a very clear lean in that tight end's direction.
12:00Because remember, when we draft a lot of running backs and wide receivers early on, we're not just doing it because their
12:07value over replacement looks really good on paper. And that's obviously on the projections front.
12:12We're doing it because we know those positions, they're really important to fantasy football.
12:17So we're getting a lot of them in case a player gets hurt or if he just busts.
12:22Worst case scenario, we have extra usable pieces at very important positions that we can use as trade leverage for later in the season.
12:30But in many scenarios, we're going to be using those players at some point in the season.
12:36And if you take a tight end over one of those players, after you already took one early in your draft very
12:43high, you have a really big opportunity cost with where you took Brock Bowers.
12:47Like I said, you're handcuffing yourself. Because you're going to force yourself to use that tight end in the flex spot, which
12:54limits your flexibility overall in your lineup. I'm not saying that you can't or shouldn't ever do this, but I'm more inclined
13:02to do it later as opposed to in the middle rounds.
13:05And keep in mind, you're talking like round 9 through round 12.
13:09Those players are going to look a lot different in every draft, but there are still some very viable and good wide
13:16receivers and running backs in that range. But look, the overall sentiment here though for me is not to fall into the
13:23trap that your fantasy football team is going to be perfect.
13:27As in, when you make that 7th round wide receiver pick, you might feel really good about that player.
13:33There are plenty of guys that I like in that range too.
13:37But chances are, they're not going to live up to the hype.
13:41They're not going to be incredibly useful as more than like a flex player.
13:45Because historical hit rates show us that. So in order to make sure you're going to hit on those important positions, you've got to take more of them.
13:54And generally, you have to take a lot of them early.
13:58As usual though, it does depend on the players that we're analyzing here.
14:02I have to answer this as a hypothetical. But I can think of plenty of instances where I'd gladly take the tight end, sure.
14:10I just don't think those instances pop up very frequently after I've taken a player like Brock Bowers.
14:15This has questions from Drew. It says, Hey JJ, loving the draft guide again this year.
14:21And your year two analysis is always a highlight for me.
14:24Thanks. I'm curious why Jackson Dart is not more of a breakout target for you this season like Drake May was last season.
14:32Does this stem from current ADP cost, his character and injury concerns, or something else that you've noticed from his underlying profile and offensive environment?
14:40Thanks. So I do think that Drake May showed a little bit more promise than Dart as a rookie.
14:46Part of that was just what I saw with my eyes, but it comes through in some numbers too.
14:52Like completion percentage over expected being about five points higher than darts as a rookie.
14:57But cost is the biggest thing here. People want to revise history a bit and say that Drake May was drafted pretty high last year.
15:05But Fantasy Pros has him as the QB 16 last year.
15:08Drafted 125th overall. It was the easiest call in the world to take that on because we know with quarterbacks, even if
15:15they do bust, we can find replacements. We shoot for ceiling given the availability of the position on waivers in most leagues.
15:23With Dart, the market's just not doing that. Largely because Dart was very usable last year because of his rushing.
15:29So right now, when you look at his ADP, he's firmly a top 100 pick.
15:34And on some platforms, he's going as high as QB 8.
15:37Now, I still think he's a fine target. And honestly, I'm still fine with double tapping quarterback this year.
15:44Getting a player who has huge upside like Jackson Dart, and then getting a more stable piece if you're feeling uncomfortable.
15:50That's fine. But this is just a cost thing.
15:53Dart on ESPN, QB 7, QB 9 on CBS, QB 7 on Sleeper.
15:57Even though I like him, and I'm generally ahead of the market, or at least at market, those costs are why it's
16:05not that easy to call him out. And in my opinion, if you want exposure, check out best ball drafts.
16:11For real. He's going a lot later in those drafts.
16:14But this is just a cost thing. Dart's rushing upside was wild last year, and year two quarterbacks, they're the players that you want to bet on.
16:23They have really low floors, but they have really high ceilings against ADP too.
16:27The volatility is exactly what you want at quarterback.
16:30The last one this week is from Twitter. It's from Joe, and I can't pronounce his last name.
16:36But it says, It seems like this year the fantasy football hive mind is fading a lot of the younger, cheaper running backs in ambiguous backfields.
16:45You've got years of data showing that we shouldn't be.
16:48Are we overconfident in the likes of Dobbins, Ramondre, etc.?
16:51So I wouldn't say that I've got years of data showing the opposite.
16:55When looking at ambiguous backfields, the answer is not always simply draft the younger guy.
17:00I think that's one of the many misunderstandings about these types of backfields.
17:04And I don't think it's a misunderstanding of what I've said, but what other analysts have said when they've dissected ambiguous backfields, when they've done this work too.
17:13Others have come to their own conclusions. Like one of the more popular takes is to just take the cheapest guy in
17:20one of those backfields, the one with the lowest ADP.
17:24That's not really what my research has shown. If there's something to latch onto, yes, you do probably want younger versus older.
17:31But it's more so about specifically year two players.
17:34Those running backs in the middle rounds, they hit at a really solid rate.
17:38And then you also, more importantly, you want pass catchers.
17:41You really, really want pass catchers. But more broadly, the idea with ambiguous backfields is that you should be leaning into the
17:48backfields where we don't know the starter. Where the ADP gap between one running back in a backfield to the other one is relatively small.
17:56Especially when they're middle round players. Because that tells us that the situation might be pretty good.
18:02Whereas if it's just an ambiguous backfield with late round guys, maybe not as good.
18:07Or if you have a standalone running back in the middle rounds with no real competition, you have to ask yourself why that guy isn't being drafted higher.
18:16If there's no competition in his backfield, why is he not a top 20 pick?
18:21Or a top 15 pick? It's probably because either he's not very good, which means another running back can take over that backfield.
18:28Or the backfield itself is in a pretty crappy situation.
18:31But getting specific here, you named a couple of these backfields in the Broncos and the Patriots.
18:37There's also the Commanders at this point. There's Carolina.
18:40There's Pittsburgh. We get a decent number of these backfields every single year.
18:44And my answer to your question is, I genuinely don't know.
18:47Like I've been much lower than the market with J.K.
18:51Dobbins. I do not understand the J.K. Dobbins hype.
18:54Like I feel like I see no one saying that J.K.
18:57Dobbins is just a low ceiling play. Because that's generally how I feel.
19:01I think he's a middle to late round single or double and not a triple or a home run.
19:07And in that range of the draft, I want a big play.
19:11I want a ceiling play. Dobbins was limited last year as a receiver with a sub 5% target share.
19:17And he was limited in his route share too, which is what led to that.
19:22Now I'm willing to be wrong. But process wise, it's really weird to me that Dobbins is getting the love that he's
19:29getting when he's had the injury history that he's had.
19:33He's coming off a pretty major injury and he hasn't been used as a pass catcher.
19:38And then, oh, by the way, they've only added competition this offseason.
19:42And I think Jonah Coleman's a good player. But even last year when situationally things were going J.K.
19:47Dobbins way, we would all agree on that. He was the starter in that backfield.
19:52He averaged just 11.6 PPR points per game. That's not even close to league winning.
19:57So I'm out on Dobbins this year because I just want more of a ceiling.
20:02I think R.J. Harvey is more appetizing because the ADP gap is so small on some of the major platforms.
20:08There are some platforms out there where J.K. Dobbins just goes straight up ahead of R.J.
20:14And I get it. R.J. Harvey wasn't a great runner last year.
20:17Go ahead and read the year two profile in the late round prospect guide this year.
20:23I was not high on R.J. Harvey earlier this offseason.
20:26But his ADP has also lowered quite a bit.
20:29His cost to acquire is totally different. That's not really a dynasty take, but it's definitely a season long take.
20:35There's just so much more upside to Harvey's profile from a burst youth and just receiving perspective.
20:41Though I will say Jonah Coleman, he's the one that I'm going to have the most exposure to by far out of
20:48this backfield because I just want to throw that late round dart.
20:52Meanwhile, you look at New England. And like I just said, year two running max, you generally do want to invest in them.
20:59Historically, they've been pretty good bets. But you don't just do that blindly.
21:03I'm still worried about what we saw in the playoffs last year and the fact that the Patriots should have a tougher
21:10schedule this year because a tougher schedule means more negative game scripts.
21:14More negative game scripts means you need a reliable running back back there and pass protection.
21:19And that's Ramondre Stevenson right now. Travion Henderson has not shown us that he can be that player.
21:25He's not shown New England that he can be that player.
21:29So I have more Stevenson than I have Henderson right now.
21:32Though I have to say, I don't think that Henderson is a full fade.
21:37He's obviously explosive. There's contingent upside. And again, he's a year two player.
21:41Players can get better. So basically what I'm saying here though is that everything's case by case.
21:47I'll generally lean towards youth. Sure. But we need to look at all this with more context.
21:52It's not as simple as saying he's the cheapest one or he's the youngest one out of this ambiguous backfield.
21:58It's more about understanding that there's value with ambiguous backfields.
22:02And then you take it from there. That's it for today's show though.
22:06Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are
22:13researching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
22:16And to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
22:20Thanks for listening everyone. Have a great weekend. I'll catch you next week.
22:24Grainger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park, you're not managing one building.
22:29You're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners.
22:35Lights about to fail. Filters ready to clog. HVAC on its last leg.
22:39If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind.
22:42Count on Grainger for quality products, easy reordering, and 24-7 support.
22:46Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done.
22:51I love the little everyday moments with my dog, especially treat time.
22:55But dental care? Not always so fun. Until we found Greeny's Dental Treats.
22:59These are more than just tasty. They're vet recommended and designed to support the four areas vets check the most.
23:06Plaque, tartar, gums, and breath. Their unique texture cleans down to the gum line and supports cleaner teeth after 28 days when fed daily.
23:13It's a simple daily habit that supports their health and gives us another moment to enjoy together.
23:19Greeny's make health a treat. Shop now at greenys.com.
23:22This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
