The Show: Deep Sleepers, Rookie Wide Receiver Hype, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 13, 2026
Published
Thu, August 13, 2026
37
Player insights
32
Players mentioned
Topics
Colston LovelandCourtland SuttonJosh JacobsPat BryantPuka NacuaAlec PierceBucky IrvingCyrus AllenDenzel BostonDeVonta SmithDontayvion WicksEli StowersGreg DulcichIsaiah Likely
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
NegativeInjury27:22
JJ Zachariason is cooling off on Alec Pierce due to ongoing injury concerns, specifically reports of a second PRP injection and visible limping. He fears Pierce could start the season on the PUP list.
Insight pageBucky Irving
NegativeValue5:14
JJ Zachariason notes that Bucky Irving is consistently being drafted ahead of Cortland Sutton in season-long formats, despite some confusion in the fantasy community regarding best ball versus season-long ADP.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveSleeper28:32
JJ Zachariason considers Colston Loveland a strong player, noting that the model likes him, though he acknowledges there are many mouths to feed in that offense.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout35:54
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, and Rome Odunze, suggesting they could dominate the Bears' passing game target share. He is overexposed to all three in best ball.
Insight pageCourtland Sutton
NegativeValue3:25
JJ Zachariason argues that Sutton is a 'boring, no upside' selection who is overvalued in season-long formats. Zachariason emphasizes that he does not care about a player simply meeting median expectations in rounds 5-8, and he prefers players like Parker Washington, Mike Evans, and Jordan Tyson over Sutton.
Insight pagePositiveBust61:03
JJ Zachariason highlights that Courtland Sutton will be 31 in October and commanded a target on fewer than 20% of his routes run last year, suggesting declining efficiency despite Denver's high passing volume.
Insight pageCyrus Allen
PositiveSleeper59:00
Cyrus Allen is a deep sleeper who could fill a specific role for the Chiefs. He showed high efficiency in the slot (2.07 yards per route run) and strong contested catch ability (85th percentile) in college. He is better suited for redraft leagues where he can be easily cut if he fails to develop.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
NegativeSleeper37:57
JJ Zachariason views Denzel Boston as an okay prospect but prefers Casey Concepcion in that wide receiver room based on his model's data.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveBreakout19:12
JJ Zachariason is very bullish on DeVonta Smith, labeling him a player to target. He notes that Smith has shown nearly a 30% target share in games without A.J. Brown and has the potential to ascend as the alpha in the Eagles' offense.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveSleeper61:57
JJ Zachariason is high on Dontayvion Wicks following his move to Philadelphia, noting his 2.04 yards per route run in 2023 and a strong 25% target-per-route-run rate in 2024. With AJ Brown out and other receivers banged up, Wicks is a recommended late-round target in both best ball and managed leagues.
Insight pageEli Stowers
NegativeProjection62:25
JJ Zachariason suggests that Eli Stowers is unlikely to emerge as a primary pass-catching option in the Philadelphia offense for the 2026 season.
Insight pageGreg Dulcich
PositiveSleeper60:59
Greg Dulcich is a recommended tight end dart throw. Despite limited routes last year, he posted a 2.31 yards per route run rate. Historically, tight ends with similar efficiency profiles drafted outside the top 12 have frequently outperformed their ADP by 4+ PPR points per game.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveSleeper32:12
JJ Zachariason identifies Isaiah Likely as a target because he plays in the slot and fits trends that suggest tight end success. He expects Likely to outpace his ADP.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
NegativeProjection10:12
JJ Zachariason questions the hype surrounding J.K. Dobbins, noting that he was not particularly usable last year even without Jonah Coleman in the offense.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveValue21:00
JJ Zachariason has moved Ja'Marr Chase ahead of Puka Nacua in his rankings due to the uncertainty surrounding Nacua's availability for the start of the season.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeUsage27:46
JJ Zachariason is not fully sold on Jadarian Price as a bell-cow, noting that the team likely prefers a split backfield and that George Holani will be involved, limiting Price's standalone upside.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeProjection30:15
JJ Zachariason plans to lower his ranking for Jayden Daniels due to the loss of Laremy Tunsil, which negatively impacts the offensive line and the team's ability to execute their preferred offensive schemes.
Insight pageJordyn Tyson
PositiveBreakout40:11
JJ Zachariason is high on Jordan Tyson, citing his 99th percentile breakout score and strong analytical profile as reasons for his recent steam.
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeBust21:32
JJ Zachariason is fading Josh Jacobs in season-long leagues because his current ADP does not account for potential disciplinary issues or injury concerns. Zachariason also notes that Jacobs is on the wrong side of the career touch curve, making him a risky pick compared to other options.
Insight pageNegativeUsage33:32
JJ Zachariason notes reports from Adam Schefter suggesting Josh Jacobs could face potential punishment during the season, adding uncertainty to his outlook.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection23:02
JJ Zachariason expresses some unease regarding Justin Jefferson's outlook due to quarterback ambiguity, but remains committed to the process, viewing Kyler Murray as a potential upgrade over last year's situation.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveValue53:16
JJ Zachariason advises drafting Keenan Allen in late rounds, noting he is not 'washed' as many believe. He led Chargers wide receivers in target share and yards per route run (26%) last year. A signing with a team like Indianapolis would result in a massive immediate value gain.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveSleeper21:57
Despite a recent groin injury, JJ Zachariason remains very high on Luther Burden, citing his elite yards-after-catch ability and potential for a 'nuclear' season. Zachariason prefers Burden over Rome Odunze for fantasy purposes due to the scheme fit and Burden's superior prospect profile.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
NegativeBust39:32
JJ Zachariason is nervous about Makai Lemon's outlook, noting that his ADP is falling and he may not play enough early in the season to maintain confidence in managed leagues.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveSleeper51:40
Marshawn Lloyd is a recommended late-round dart throw. While the ZAP model was not in love with him, he possesses a strong 111 speed score and plays in a high-scoring Matt LaFleur offense. He is currently healthy and could benefit from Josh Jacobs' injury concerns and workload.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveSleeper23:38
JJ Zachariason is highly bullish on Parker Washington, labeling him one of the most mispriced players in season-long formats. He highlights Washington's high yards-per-route-run efficiency and the likelihood of him maintaining a full-time role in an offense that prioritizes slot production.
Insight pagePat Bryant
PositiveBreakout60:35
JJ Zachariason notes that after a slow start, Pat Bryant saw his route share increase to 69% with a strong 1.58 yards per route run rate. Zachariason believes Bryant could carve out a role and potentially push for snaps at the X receiver position in the Denver offense by the end of the season.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout62:17
Pat Bryant is a player with undeniable camp hype. After a slow start to his rookie season, he saw his route share increase to 69% and his yards per route run jump to 1.58 in the latter half of the year, suggesting potential for a year-two breakout.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeInjury20:19
JJ Zachariason notes reports suggesting Puka Nacua might miss the first game of the season, potentially due to a suspension. This news causes Zachariason to move Nacua down his rankings, specifically behind Ja'Marr Chase, and he notes that if the week one absence is confirmed, Nacua could drop into a lower tier.
Insight pageNegativeInjury33:42
JJ Zachariason discusses reports that Puka Nacua might miss the first game of the season, potentially due to a suspension, noting the specificity of the reports.
Insight pageRashee Rice
NegativeUsage15:37
JJ Zachariason is becoming increasingly concerned about Rashee Rice due to reports of knee issues and the fragile nature of his role. Zachariason notes that Rice is not a traditional high-end wide receiver archetype and could see a production downturn if the offense shifts or if other receivers like Cyrus Allen emerge.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeValue23:42
JJ Zachariason acknowledges that Rome Odunze may be the more classic, versatile wide receiver in real-life football, but prefers Luther Burden for fantasy due to scheme-driven upside.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveValue30:42
JJ Zachariason is very high on Stefon Diggs as a value pick, noting that he is a great fit for the Commanders' offense and remains efficient per route run despite coming off an ACL injury.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveSleeper54:28
Trey Harris is JJ Zachariason's highest-exposed wide receiver in best ball. While his college metrics were mixed, he is a year-two player in a good offense with a clear path to targets behind Quentin Johnston. He is a fine end-of-bench target in managed leagues.
Insight pageTyler Warren
PositiveSleeper31:57
JJ Zachariason highlights Tyler Warren as an interesting sleeper who could walk into a 25% target share in the Colts' offense. He notes that Warren's ADP has not budged despite his potential.
Insight pageTyrone Tracy
NegativeUsage34:02
JJ Zachariason notes that Tyrone Tracy is taking two-minute drill snaps, which could slightly hurt the value of other running backs on the team, though he still views the other backs as better pass-catchers.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
PositiveInjury27:10
JJ Zachariason notes that Zach Charbonnet may return from his ACL injury sooner than the expected November timeframe, potentially avoiding the PUP list and returning in September.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:51Health care just got less painful. You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:58If you'd like to catch the show live this off season, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atlateroundff.
1:05We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
1:10Welcome in. Welcome in. It's The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by DraftKings.
1:14David Kitchen here alongside my quant, JJ Zacharyarysen. JJ, how are you doing today?
1:18I'm good. I'm fired up, man. It's a we're peak fantasy football draft season.
1:22And this is the time of year where, you know, in like July, I'm not hearing much from people in terms of
1:29feedback of rankings or how I feel about players.
1:31But this is the time of year where people start to test me, if you will.
1:36Not not in like a character way. I mean in like a, you know, why are you so high on this guy?
1:43You know, you're wrong about this. Explain why you feel this way.
1:47And I love that part of this game because I do think that there are there continue to be some like general
1:53and in my this is my opinion, of course, flawed way of looking at fantasy football, right?
1:58There was a big discussion in the Late Round Discord today because if you guys have been listening to any Late Round
2:05podcast episode for the last couple of weeks, maybe month, it seems like any time I talk about like sort of like
2:11a boring, you know, no upside type selection. I just seem to bring up Cortland Sutton.
2:16You know, Cortland Sutton is always getting thrown under the bus and I did it on becoming a best ball bro where
2:23I think in best ball Cortland Sutton is a little bit of a different type of case.
2:28But I don't know, like number one, I think that that still today people are so best ball brained in the fantasy
2:35football space where they don't recognize what is going on on season long platforms in home leagues.
2:40And 95% plus of this audience is listening for that type of analysis.
2:44Like they want to know how they can beat their ESPN ADP or the ESPN ADP.
2:49They want to know what their league mates might be doing if they're drafting on Yahoo, right?
2:54They want to know they want to know how to beat their rooms on those specific platforms.
2:59And best ball is totally different. You know, there's stuff.
3:02I was tagged in a tweet right before we came went on air and someone was saying like, can you explain, you
3:08know, because there was a tweet by by our friend Pat Thorman about Bayshall, Tutton and Bucky Irving.
3:14And someone was like, can you explain, you know, the Tutton or like why you would prefer Tutton over Irving given this information?
3:21It's like, OK, I can get all I can go through that and I can explain it.
3:26But if you look at ADP on these platforms, like Bucky Irving is going well ahead of Bayshall Tutton, even though best
3:32ball is not doing that in season long drafts.
3:35And in the season long format that we're all, you know, participating in right now, the majority of platforms, the majority of
3:42leagues will still see Bucky Irving get drafted. The head of Bayshall Tutton.
3:46And so just because it's going on in best ball in that way does not mean that it's going to go that
3:52way, you know, in your home league draft. In fact, there's a lot of instances where it won't.
3:58And so, you know, the Cortland Sutton discussion got brought up today.
4:01And look, the bottom line, if I were to just like really dumb this down into just a few sentences, the bottom
4:08line is that when I get into round five, round six, round seven, round eight of my fantasy drafts, I do not care.
4:15In most formats where you're starting one quarterback, two running backs, two or three wide outs, a tight end and a flex.
4:21I don't care about a player simply meeting expectation.
4:24I do not care if Cortland Sutton is drafted as the wide receiver 30 or 30, 30 to 35, and he finishes as the wide receiver 27.
4:32I don't care. It does not matter. That does not move the needle at all in fantasy football.
4:38And if you look at season long platforms like ESPN right now is crazy.
4:42They're ADP. Cortland Sutton is being drafted ahead of players like Parker Washington, Mike Evans, you know, Jordan Tyson.
4:48I take all those guys easily, easily over Cortland Sutton.
4:51And I'm not it's not even close, you know.
4:53So my philosophy in fantasy football is that I am trying to win.
4:57Right. And this is why, you know, to rant even more and hopefully people, you know, enjoy this and aren't going to
5:04just yell at me for seeming like seeming like I'm angry.
5:07I'm not angry. I'm passionate. This is passion. Right.
5:10Part of a huge reason why I hate rankings contest is because rankings contest are based on median outcomes.
5:16Median outcomes don't win fantasy championships. Ceiling outcomes win fantasy championships.
5:19You need league winning players. I do not care if the RB 20 finishes as the RB 19.
5:24If the RB 25 finishes as the RB 23.
5:27It does not matter to me. I want the RB 20 to finish or at least have the outcome of the possible
5:34outcome of finishing as the RB 10. I need that with my picks when I'm drafting them.
5:39And of course, as you get through your drafts, it's not really that possible.
5:43And I'm not saying that you only do. There's a balance to it.
5:47You know, there are some teams where you might want to get Cortland Sutton if you have really deep rosters because maybe there's some safety to it.
5:55I don't think there's that much safety to it, though, because there's a guy we're going to talk about on today's show.
6:02And there's Jalen Waddell at being added to this equation.
6:05I'm like, I don't understand why people are still so gravitated towards, you know, Cortland Sutton or like I see so many tweets about J.K.
6:12Dobbins. And I'm like, did you guys see what he did last year without Jonah Coleman in the offense?
6:18Like he wasn't even that like unbelievably usable last year.
6:21And then now you're pumping him up. You're getting all excited.
6:24I just I'm trying to use this platform to show people that fourth place does not matter in fantasy football.
6:30I can give you a fourth place roster. You know, I can I can take you down that path.
6:36But without injury, I don't think Cortland Sutton is a first place type player.
6:40I think he's a fifth place type player, you know.
6:43And so I'm trying to do my best to explain all of that as I go through.
6:48And that's why my rankings look the way that they look.
6:52And I'm not playing this in a in a in a safety type way.
6:56You know, I'm trying to explain that I'm looking at range of outcomes and I'm going to chase that higher end outcome
7:02because in the end, that is what's going to win your fantasy championship.
7:06Yeah, that's like that. You know, the median projections like we talked about, you know, they they can only carry you so far.
7:13I know people want like custom rankings for their draft based on projections.
7:17Listen, that is that's a trap. You talked about it on X.
7:21Speaking of X, I just posted. I said, we're live now.
7:24And JJ is passionate. That's before you even said you're passionate.
7:27So that's how I that's how I know you.
7:30You guys you guys could either have me just being a boring, nerdy guy sitting on here talking numbers or you.
7:36I genuinely care. I want you guys to win.
7:39I want to be a good analyst and I want to go through the processing, the reasoning as to why I feel
7:46the way that I do about this game. I want my analyst being exciting and nerdy.
7:51Is that too much to ask? So passionate and nerdy.
7:54Definitely nerdy. That's the whole brand. Listen, we have a lot of stuff to talk about.
7:58But before we do, just a few minor details.
8:01First, we've got the draft guide over at late round dot com.
8:05The new late round dot com. If you're just now kind of tuning in or you've taken some time off, go to late round dot com.
8:13It's going to be a brand new website. You can get your membership there.
8:17You get the all access membership where you get all the guides, all the inside our access.
8:22Or you can just purchase the draft guide there either or.
8:25And while you're there, sign up for the newsletter.
8:28It's free and people are enjoying it. And we also would like to thank our sponsors, DraftKings, for sponsoring this show.
8:34And after this show, JJ will be drafting a best ball team.
8:38So on a stream, it'll redirect there. If you're listening on demand, you can go back and watch that draft happen.
8:44It's a good time. Interactive chat, all that good stuff.
8:47And speaking of DraftKings, they do have the draft one.
8:50Get one promotion still around. There's other contests, other best ball contests.
8:54I'm saying it right now. One dollar best ball contest is better than a free mock draft.
8:59And that might that might be get a little pushback from people.
9:03But, you know, when there's some skin in the game, it's a good way to prep for that.
9:08We have best ball rankings on the site. And also, if you're a new customer for DraftKings, they have play week one
9:15NFL for free with a minimum $5 deposit. And you can go in your promotions tab and they've got a whole bunch
9:21of other promotions as well for existing customers. So, JJ, we have set the table.
9:26And I think, I mean, we have so much to talk about.
9:29So without further ado, let's just get into it.
9:32It's today's news. Today's fantasy news. All right, let's start with some wide receiver talk.
9:37Ruh-roh, Rashi. Rashi Rice is. You mentioned it yesterday.
9:39You had like an Apex Riders draft. You somehow landed Jefferson in the second round.
9:44But then it came time for Rice to come back around.
9:47And you use like, yeah, pass on that. We're seeing a lot of clips on X and social media platforms where I'm
9:54just not being comforted as a Rice owner. Look, he's one of the toughest players for me to rank this year because
10:00I don't think that he's exceptionally amazing at the game.
10:03I think he's good. But I think he's good in a specific role and a specific way of running that offense where
10:10he's a very good yard after the catch receiver.
10:13That's what he was out of college, too. You know, you can go, you know, the zap model didn't really love Rashi Rice, admittedly.
10:20Like, I was wrong with Rashi Rice. But I do think that, you know, he's being used in a way that I didn't project, which was a mistake.
10:28And, you know, him playing that slot role. He just has been peppered with targets and he's good after the catch.
10:35But in terms of just like a traditional, typical, you know, high end wide receiver that you see in fantasy, he's not necessarily that kind of player.
10:43And to me, there's a lot of fragility to that kind of archetype because if it changes just a little bit, if
10:49Cyrus Allen really does break out, if the offense turns a little bit more into a run heavy one with Kenneth Walker
10:56there, all of a sudden, you know, Rashi Rice, you could see the downturn, you know, of his production.
11:02And so I think it's a little bit different in best ball where, you know, there's going to be that production.
11:08And like, if you want to, I'm trying to stay at market basically in best ball.
11:13And I got him a little bit cheaper when all that stuff was going on with him.
11:18But even still, it's like, yeah, it's a it's a tough profile to like really buy into.
11:23So I was, you know, as I'm doing drafts this time of year, I'm able to really be like, like, like tested
11:30with my rankings and the way that I feel about players.
11:33And, you know, there's going to be players that move up and down rankings based on, you know, news items or or,
11:40you know, more research that I'm doing or just the legitimately, you know, I'm on the clock.
11:45What decision do I make? And when I was on the clock there, I had the choice between Chris Alave, Devante Smith and Rasheed Rice.
11:52And I chose Devante Smith because I am very high on Smith.
11:56You know, someone I might have to write him as a player to target based on my overall ranking of him, because
12:02I think he's like a two three turn guy.
12:05And a lot of platforms have like three four.
12:08And so, you know, he's a player that I think can ascend and take the next step as the alpha in that offense.
12:15You look at his splits, obviously it's a little bit different, but you look at his splits without AJ Brown.
12:21He's been like close to a 30% target share type player.
12:24Like there's a lot to like about Smith and the upside of Smith.
12:28I think he's, you know, if you want to talk candidates of being like this year's JSN, I think he's got to
12:35be at the top of that list or close to it with like a McConkie, you know, an Abuka, whatever.
12:41But yeah, I mean, I'm I'm very bullish on Devante Smith and I'm getting more and more scared of Rasheed Rice.
12:47And actually, after I made that pick is when that report came out about how he wasn't moving well.
12:53Rasheed Rice, how his knee didn't seem 100%. So now we have like a tangible piece and reason to really move Rasheed Rice down the board.
13:01And so I'm going to be moving them down the board because I'm just more and more scared of of what we
13:07might get from him in a very like it could be fine if he gets peppered the same way.
13:13But it's still a fragile situation overall. Okay, next we have a burden to bear.
13:17Luther Burden. Boy, he scared us. He sure scared us.
13:20You actually you actually messaged me and Gadula. Yeah.
13:23And you said, listen, if Burden is out for the season, we might have to shut down the company.
13:29Yeah, company would be shut down. If yes, late round fantasy football would cease to exist.
13:34If Luther only a groin injury, though, and they're thinking he's going to be back by by week one.
13:39Yeah. I mean, it sounds pretty good. And the other thing, too, is that there was a clip of him the day
13:46after water like a couple of days after walking around a camp and there wasn't a noticeable limp.
13:51And a lot of the reliable PTs and doctors that are on Twitter, you know, Jeff Mueller, etc.
13:57They were saying that typically if it's a grade two type strain, there would be a more noticeable limp with the player.
14:03And there wasn't with Luther Burden, which made them seem like and feel like this is not a super, super serious situation
14:10and that they're just playing it safe because obviously he's an important part of their offense.
14:15So I did move him down a little bit within the tier, but I've seen some takes of like, let's take Roma Dunze over.
14:22I'm not there. I still think Burden is a very, you know, look, I think that the Burden versus a Dunze thing
14:29at this point, there's very much a like real football versus fantasy football divide.
14:33I think that's going on here where Roma Dunze might be the better, more classic wide receiver in terms of his ability
14:40at playing that position that might be very versatile across, you know, different offensive schemes and he could play anywhere.
14:46Right. But I do think that we have to layer.
14:49Obviously, we have to layer in scheme and what that might look like.
14:52And with Ben Johnson, we've seen it for years with Aminra St.
14:56Brown. And we saw it even last year. He is so good at scheming his guys open to create yards after the catch.
15:03And Luther Burden is one of the best yak players that we've seen come out in some time.
15:08Like he's very, very good with the ball in his hands.
15:12And so if he gets some layup touches, you can sit there and say, oh, there's no skill involved in doing that.
15:18I don't really care, you know, like because they're clearly doing that because not only that, I think there is a ceiling.
15:25Now, someone might sit there and say, didn't you just say the exact opposite about Rasheed Rice?
15:30No, I mean, I said the same thing about Rasheed Rice.
15:33And I'm more fading Rice and I'm targeting Burden.
15:36And the main reason for that is that I think Burden has more general ability at playing the wide receiver position and
15:43a lot more room for growth to be a legitimate stud in the NFL.
15:47Whereas I think we've seen what Rasheed Rice generally is.
15:50Right. And then you have the backbone of Luther Burden being an excellent prospect.
15:54According to that model, it all comes together to me just being very high on Burden.
15:59The reason why, you know, like he's my highest exposed player in best ball right now in the earlier rounds.
16:05And look, it goes back to my rant earlier about shooting for upside.
16:09All of that. You know, I understand what median projections might be showing, but I also can see a scenario where Luther
16:16Burden goes nuclear this year and he just has a really, really good season.
16:20And I do think that, you know, this injury is just a scare more than anything else.
16:25You know, it's not it's not perfect. You'd rather him not be hurt at all.
16:29But it does sound like he's going to be fine for week one.
16:33And hopefully plenty of points to go around. We'll talk about that in a second.
16:38All right. This one I was proud of PRP or to not PRP.
16:42That is the question. And Alec Pierce, supposedly it came out that he had like a second PRP shot, which is plasma replacement therapy, I think.
16:50Yeah, maybe something. But basically, it would not. You should know with the peptide stuff, right?
16:54No, don't bring up peptides. You're going to trigger.
16:57You're going to trigger an ad. But I'll say that as someone who's been like, yeah, he'll be fine.
17:03He'll be fine. The fact that we're debating this, I'm just like cooling way off on Alec Pierce.
17:08Yeah, I would agree. Also, really quick. Someone said it's Loveland season, not burden.
17:12I think it can be both. I think people are going to be shocked about this in a second.
17:18We'll talk about it in a second. There is a segment where we'll talk about all the Bears players.
17:24Will we? Yeah. Today? Yeah, save it. Yeah. OK, I'll save it.
17:27That's fine. All right. Alec Pierce. What if I just started talking about Sam Laporta or something or Tua or something?
17:34Uh, right. His kitchen takes a sip of whatever smoothie he's drinking.
17:37Uh, the Alec Pierce stuff is frightening, man. I mean, there was the report that came out like, you know, and they're like, oh, he got another injection.
17:46No one knew the timeline of it. But then Chris Ballard comes out and was like, no, there wasn't an injection.
17:52Uh, to me, there is still video and I'm not a doctor, but there's still video of like yesterday of him signing
17:59autographs for little kids that were where he's limping.
18:01He had his surgery in what March? I think it was something, something around then.
18:06And yeah, I'm frightened out of my mind. And I, I think this is a team that needs to get Keenan Allen
18:13needs to do something at wide receiver. Maybe they trade for Kayshaun Booty.
18:16Um, and honestly, booty would actually kind of work as, as a replacement for, for Alec Pierce.
18:22Cause he can get down the field, but I, I don't think that's the way that booty should necessarily be used in the NFL.
18:29Regardless, they need to make a move because their wide receiver depth chart is frighteningly bad.
18:34I love Josh downs, but him as like the alpha, you know, and with no one behind him, obviously it's going to
18:40run through Tyler Warren and Jonathan Taylor. It's scary.
18:43I don't think that you can draft Alec Pierce right now.
18:46I'm scared that he's going to go on the pup, uh, to enter the season.
18:51And, uh, you know, we won't, won't see him for a handful of weeks, but we'll see, you know, there there's, there's
18:57obviously a discount that you're going to see, but, but I think that in a lot of season long leagues, there might
19:04still not be because people just aren't as on top of, of what this is, uh, is revealing right now.
19:10Yeah. And you've talked about a few times how you just don't understand why people have not been as high on Tyler Warren.
19:17Yeah. It's kind of interesting to me. Like, I feel like, you know, Loveland's getting, look, look, I think Loveland's a better player than Tyler Warren.
19:25Does that model love Colson Loveland? Uh, and, but it liked Tyler Warren too.
19:29And he was pretty good in year one. And also now he could just walk into like a 25% target share pretty easily in that Colts offense.
19:37Whereas, you know, I think Loveland can see a really high target share too.
19:41It's just, there's obviously more pieces that they have to feed, uh, in set offense.
19:46So yeah, I think Warren is a little bit more interesting than he was before.
19:50And there hasn't been any budging of his ADP.
19:53Uh, but I think the offense too, like, I don't know, man, you know, Alec Pierce is really good for real football
20:00purposes, the way that he can stretch the field.
20:02And that opens up a lot upfront for them.
20:05And I, I do worry what this could look like without him.
20:09Okay. Uh, we have some Puka Jacobs uncertainty. Adam Schefter yesterday.
20:12I thought that we were kind of past Adam Schefter yesterday though, said that he wouldn't be surprised if something happened with
20:19Jacobs, some sort of punishment during the season. And also we have Puka injury, Puka, maybe not being able to play the first game.
20:26Like we don't know what's going to happen, but what's your take on this?
20:30They're being oddly specific about Puka missing the first game, the first game.
20:34Yes. And I'm thinking it's an international game too.
20:37Yeah. I'm thinking there might, there, there might be a one game suspension coming.
20:41Like, you know, not to say that like Schefter knows all or anything like that, but I don't think that like he
20:48would throw something like that out there for absolutely no reason.
20:51Um, and so we might see something happen with Puka.
20:54He's going to move down a little bit in my, like, I'm still going to have Matt, I'm going to have a
21:00wide receiver too, but I've had him actually ahead of Jamar chase because I just liked the projection and the, the potential for him a little bit more.
21:09Um, but they're in the same tier. You could go either way.
21:12Um, but that's enough for me to move chase over him officially.
21:16Maybe even, you know, if we get the, the, um, the news, he's not gonna be able to play week one, maybe
21:23even moving down into that next tier. Uh, but don't overstate, you know, what one game would do, especially early on in
21:29the season when there's no bye weeks and stuff.
21:32The Josh Jacobs thing is really interesting because I've been lower than the market, you know, the season long market, uh, with Jacobs.
21:39I think that if he were healthy with no, none of this uncertainty, he'd probably be like a two, three turn type pick.
21:46And obviously in best ball, he goes a lot later than that, but in, in managed season long leagues, he's still ranked really high.
21:53Like he, there's the second, third round. Yeah. None of this is baked into his ADP on these major platforms, which is
22:00why, uh, I have him as a fade right now, uh, you know, on those platforms because there's a lot of good wide receivers there.
22:07And, and even, you know, I wouldn't be taking like, certainly wouldn't be taking like a Derek Henry over him or something like that.
22:14Uh, or I would be taking a Derek Henry over him.
22:18Um, and so, yeah, I mean, like I'm, I'm still scared of Jacobs.
22:22Um, you know, he's been banged up a little bit too, and he's kind of, I know that he's, he was a
22:28younger prospect, but he is getting up there from a touch perspective.
22:32Um, you know, and, and getting so much work throughout his career.
22:36So it could be sort of on that, that wrong side of the curve in terms of fantasy production for Jacobs.
22:42All right. We don't, we have a lot to talk about, so we don't have to talk about this a lot, but
22:48I just want it to everyone that listens to this podcast watches.
22:52Hey, Kyler Murray is a starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings.
22:55Not the guy that was completely terrible last year.
22:58The other JJ, the bad. Yeah. Uh, but I'm not surprised that Kyler starting.
23:02I'm a little bit getting a little bit concerned about what it might do for Justin Jefferson.
23:07But like, like, like you said, I had the 107 in this draft.
23:11I took Amin Ross St. Brown and then Justin Jefferson fell to me in the second round.
23:16And I still, I took him, but it still felt a little uneasy just because of the ambiguity at quarterback.
23:22But I'm trusting the process here. I think Kyler's an upgrade.
23:26Um, and maybe it was one of those situations where he just needed more reps and needed to feel comfortable as like
23:32the starter and just, and just having that spot.
23:35So we'll see. Uh, okay. We got some Parker Washington steam.
23:38You talked to the, uh, you talked about it on the becoming a best ball bro episode, but if he stays on
23:45the field, which with their reporting, he's going to be out there.
23:49You know, there's four wide receivers competing for all these spots, but if he's going to be on the field pretty much
23:55all the time, then he deservedly so deserves to get all this steam.
23:59One of the most mispriced players in season on season long platforms is Parker Washington because he goes a lot later than,
24:06you know, in best ball, let's say, but even in best ball, if you're taking them around five, I think it's fine.
24:12Cause cause like we're looking at a situation where we're, we're like, we just have to think logically from Jacksonville's perspective.
24:19When Parker Washington took over, I talked about this on the targets episode with Silva, but when Parker Washington took over, they
24:25were the third best team in touchdowns per game last year.
24:29Washington had an absurd yards per out run rate.
24:31He was so productive. The Liam Cohen offense often goes through the slot and Washington can get vertical too.
24:37He's a very good player. Right. Um, and so I, I, I think that all the things that we're hearing are sort
24:44of pointing us in a direction of they're going to want to continue doing what they were doing.
24:49That was working because why would they not do that?
24:52Right. Um, and so that's why I just keep getting more and more bullish because there's a lot of good, you know,
24:59reading, reading between the lines, not even between the lines.
25:02They're just being really overt about it, but there's a lot to like about what's being said about Washington.
25:07And if he is a full-time receiver, remember last year when Travis Hunter went down, he was still a little bit under that 80% route share mark.
25:16Parker Washington was, if that goes up even by like five percentage points, if he gets, I mean, if he gets more
25:22from a, from a route share perspective, um, I mean, there's a, there's a lot of upside with Washington.
25:28So I'm, I'm very in, especially in these season long platforms.
25:31And you mentioned it. I just pulled up some ESPN ADP Parker Washington, uh, 102 right now.
25:36I mean, we're talking about eighth, ninth round, which is, is crazy.
25:40He's go, you look at guys like Michael Pittman, which is, he's going around or two ahead of him.
25:46Yeah. And look, I, I understand that people are like, well, that's not going to happen to my league, blah, blah, blah, blah.
25:53I get it. But a lot of people still are anchored to, you know, what, what goes on in these, in the,
25:59on these platforms from an ADP perspective, like even on, on Yahoo right now, you can get Parker Washington after DK Metcalf,
26:06Brian Thomas, Alec Pierce, Marvin Harrison, Jr. I'd be taking him over Carnell Tate who goes ahead of them.
26:12And I don't mind Tate either. It's just that I think Parker Washington has a good bit of upside and he's, he's just underpriced on those platforms.
26:20Okay. Let's talk about starting depth charts, uh, starting depth charts, because obviously we've had all these coaches come out, talk about
26:26their timeshare that they're splitting between all their running backs.
26:29Uh, you know, we've got news that like George Halani was RB one for the Seahawks.
26:34How much, how much do you put into these starting depth charts, especially when it involves rookies?
26:39Zero, zero. I don't care about the depth charts.
26:42I kind of maybe a little bit care about where they're placing the wide receivers and how they see them in the slot versus not.
26:49Cause a lot of depth charts will distinguish that.
26:52I don't care about the depth chart stuff. I care about what they've been saying out of Seattle throughout the summer.
26:59And I, it feels like the market is just ignoring what the news has said about that backfield and look with backfield stuff.
27:05I care a little bit more about what, you know, beat writers are saying and such, because that comes down to a
27:12coaching decision, uh, the amount of volume these guys will get.
27:15And I look at Seattle and last year we're screaming and saying, why aren't you using Kenneth Walker more?
27:21Why aren't you, you know, why are you splitting this backfield the way that you are with Zach Charbonnet and lo and
27:28behold, they won the super bowl and they kind of handled it perfectly given what they accomplished.
27:33Right? So there is this confirmation bias from them that says, Hey, we don't need to run these guys into the ground
27:39because look at what happened last year when we had sharbs and Walker and the way that Walker was able to be fresh and get super bowl MVP.
27:48Right. And so they go out, they get Janarian price who has never been, you know, a full blown bell cow because
27:54he's playing with Jeremiah love in college comes out and they're like, Hey, George Halani is going to be involved in this offense.
28:01Hey, maybe we see a little bit of manual Wilson too.
28:05Oh, and by the way, one of the most under talk storylines in all of fantasy football has been the fact that
28:11they think Zach Charbonnet is going to be back a lot sooner than the standard November type timeframe that we would expect given when that ACL surgery happened.
28:20Right. And if, if we see Charbonnet possible that he avoids the pup list, which means that he would likely be back
28:26the first four weeks of the season. Right. He could be back in September.
28:31Like, and I'm not saying that's a lock, but the fact that they're talking about Charbonnet in that way, you know, like
28:37I think they would want a split backfield in an ideal world.
28:41Right. And so that's why I haven't really gone all in with, with Jadarian price, even though there's some trends that would
28:47favor him, you know, like standalone rookie in the middle rounds, ADP wise generally smash.
28:52Right. And I don't think he's a bad pick.
28:55He's certainly not a fade for me, but I do think that you should be aware that we're probably going to see
29:01some sort of split in that backfield, probably more than you would expect based on the other play.
29:07Like George Halani is a very replaceable type player, you know, but I do think he's going to be involved a little
29:13bit, you know, to, to start this season. Okay.
29:16We generally try to keep it to skill players, but this one is too big to ignore.
29:21Laramie Tunzel is going to be probably missing the entire regular season, possibly even more with a torn triceps.
29:27He of course is the offensive tackle there in Washington.
29:30So bad news for the commander's offense. It's horrible news.
29:33This is an offense that I was really optimistic about.
29:36I'm still optimistic about, but it's one that we're going to see a lot more.
29:40Of them under center. In the last two years, we've seen them run out of shotgun, according to true media at an
29:4789% rate, which is by far, by far the highest rate in football.
29:51And when you're under center, you can just do more with like rollouts.
29:55You can, you know, the running back can, can, can do a little bit more in terms of using the whole field
30:01instead of just part of the field. And having good strong offensive line play can go a really long way with that.
30:08Right. So yeah, it's a big deal. Um, you know, my rankings will probably drop those guys just a tad, maybe not
30:15like a digs as much or McLaurin as much, but maybe a Jaden Daniels going below a guy that, that, you know,
30:21in the same tier or, you know, to Corey Krosky merit and Rashad white, you know, like, like dropping a little bit
30:28because obviously, you know, there's, there's a worse offensive line there.
30:31That's he's one of the most important players to any team in football.
30:35So it's a, it's a pretty big deal that he's down.
30:38Okay. Uh, staying with that same, same offense, Stefan digs is back.
30:42So, uh, we're going to change his color over here to the Washington commanders color.
30:47If you were just listening, we've got a list of guys in the free agent list that, um, they don't have a
30:53team and we still have Tyreek Keenan Allen and Johnny Smith was on there, but he's no one's even talking about Johnny Smith.
31:00He was even, yeah. Yeah. So we're changing stuff on digs back to the Washington commanders colors.
31:05Yeah. Uh, I'm very into digs. I think that he's a really good value across, uh, platforms, even in best ball, you
31:12know, speaking of a guy that I would take over Cortland Sutton, I would take Stefan digs over Cortland Sutton.
31:18Um, I think it's a great fit in Washington.
31:21He's a player to target in the draft guide or a dark throw just cause I didn't know where his ADP would land.
31:28Um, yeah. I mean, like you can move them inside out.
31:31Uh, unbelievably good per route run efficiency last year coming off of the ACL too.
31:35I just don't think that he's necessarily like completely lost a step, at least in terms of maybe he's not as good
31:42down the field, but Terry McLaurin can play down the field and he's good at that role.
31:47So, uh, I think if the pairing makes a ton of sense, they should have probably just done this from the start
31:54instead of like seemingly, you know, like sort of was talking about the IUC stuff.
31:58But I think digs is just a great, great fit and mesh with, with Terry McLaurin.
32:03Yeah. RIP those, uh, IUC shares of whatever you have in whatever you have dynasty, best ball redraft, whatever.
32:09Um, Isaiah, likely likely the wide receiver to there in New York.
32:12Quick thoughts about that. I'm not surprised, you know, they don't have a good wide receiver to outside, you know, it's just neighbors.
32:19And then a bunch of, of dudes who, um, you know, I wasn't a big Malachi fields fan coming out as a prospect.
32:26I think he might end up starting cause he is a good blocker.
32:30Uh, Darnell Mooney's fine. Darius Slayton's fine, but they're not, you know, game breakers.
32:34Isaiah likely, you know, he was a dark or he was a target in the, in the guide as well, because, uh,
32:41he does check some of the trends that I look for from an ADP expectation standpoint.
32:46One of them being, you want to get these tight ends that play a lot in the slot.
32:51And I think that they're going to move him out there a lot.
32:55They have Theo Johnson there too. So they can run a lot of 12.
32:59Um, and so I think likely can easily, you know, out, outpace his ADP this year.
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34:02We have two minute Tracy reports that Tyrone Tracy taking all the two minute drill snaps there.
34:07Does that change your opinion at all on their value compared to Scadaboo?
34:11I mean, maybe a little bit. Yeah. It's a team that's probably not going to be that good.
34:16But Scadaboo, like on paper slash you watch him too, has actually been a better pass catcher than Tyrone Tracy has, even
34:23though Tracy came out as a hybrid. You know, he was a wide receiver in college.
34:28Scadaboo had a great receiving resume in college. He was really good last year, you know, as a receiver and he got
34:34a lot of work as a receiver. So I still think they're going to use him in that way.
34:40And for him to be sort of that bell cow for them, as long as he's healthy, of course.
34:46So yeah, I mean, it hurts Scadaboo a little bit if this does come to fruition, but we'll see what happens.
34:52Okay. This is the bear segment I was talking about.
34:55I don't know if you saw what Ben Johnson said.
34:58He wants to break the record for most points scored in a season.
35:02Yeah, that's amazing. Ben Johnson is our, is our King, our fantasy football King at this point.
35:07Yeah. Yeah. I'm, this is the thing that I want to say about, about like Colston Loveland, Luther Bird and Roma Dunze
35:14is that I genuinely think that we could see all of them at least like match where they're being drafted in terms
35:20of ADP expectation, because this offense could just straight up funnel through those guys in the passing game.
35:26Like, I'm not going to be shocked if the three of them have a 70% target share this year or something like that.
35:3375 even like something crazy because it's just very clear.
35:36There's not that much depth behind them at wide receiver.
35:39You know, obviously they're going to throw to the running backs as well.
35:43And then Colston Loveland is just such a monster at tight end that even when they're in 12 and 13, which I
35:49think they will be because they drafted Sam Rauch.
35:52But I still think that all three of them can be okay.
35:56And so if you're drafting in a lot of leagues, which I know not all of you are, but if you are,
36:02I would still get, I'm overexposed to all of them in best ball.
36:06You know, like I, I just, I don't think that me liking Luther Burden does not mean I don't like Colston Loveland.
36:13This is exactly what I hate about fantasy analysis and the way people consume it is that if you like someone, it
36:19doesn't mean that you don't, if I like pancakes, I doesn't mean I don't like waffles.
36:24You know, I still love waffles as long as they're gluten free.
36:28As long as they're gluten free. So yeah, I mean, I'm in it.
36:32I'm in like, I think that this bears offense could be really, really special if things really come together.
36:37And our late round, uh, charity best ball league that I was in, I just took all of them.
36:43I took Caleb Williams. I took Loveland Burden and a doonesome.
36:46It's like, listen, you guys aren't gonna, you guys aren't going to get one, uh, overall me.
36:52You either draft them or, or let me have them.
36:55All right. There's some big Boston hype. We're not talking about the Patriots.
36:59We're talking about Denzel Boston. I was in a draft on the stream yesterday, uh, on the late round channel where Boston went one Oh three overall.
37:07And one Oh three. Yes. Yes. Well, like a rookie draft or like a, no, this was the draft Kings.
37:13This is what happened. And then Concepcion went like one 15.
37:16Oh, one. Okay. You're talking about a hundred. I thought you were talking about the one dot Oh three.
37:22No, no. Okay. You guys say a hundred there, you know, sorry.
37:25A hundred and a hundred and a hundred and third.
37:28Oh, I thought it was someone, someone who was just throwing.
37:32I see that. Someone called me a boomer the other day.
37:35He's like kitchen, such a boomer. Cause he still says dot.
37:38Cause I say like the one dot Oh one or the one.
37:42I think in that case you gotta, you know, you gotta, cause that's how we say it.
37:47We were like, Oh, I got the one Oh three, you know?
37:51Yeah. Okay. See, look at Brendan. Brendan's agreeing with me and Chad.
37:54So I'm, I'm up one Oh here. Okay. Thoughts on Boston.
37:57Uh, I thought he was an okay prospect. I wasn't super high.
38:01Um, I thought he was like a Cortland Sutton type player.
38:04Uh, it didn't mean I honestly did not even mean to bring up Sutton's name again.
38:09Uh, Sutton has been a good player throughout his career has nothing to do with like what's happened in the past.
38:16But, uh, I, you know, I, I think that there, he is of that archetype of like Ted row McMillan as like
38:22a potential or Drake London as like a really, really potential.
38:25I don't think he's there given some of the stuff.
38:28We're actually going to talk about it in today's data.
38:31Um, but with that being said, I, you know, I think that if you want to throw that dart at Boston, be
38:38my guest, uh, I'm still in on Casey Concepcion as the better get in that wide receiver room, because there's a lot
38:45of data to support that from a zap model perspective.
38:48And I thought he was just a better prospect, but I don't think Boston was like a bad prospect.
38:53You know, there were some really, like there are guys that are getting steamed right now that I'm shocked are getting steamed.
39:00Like we're bad analytical prospects. There was some stuff that were okay enough with Denzel Boston still.
39:05Okay. Uh, speaking of Brennan, he said earlier, have you guys dragged Sutton yet?
39:09Did I miss it? Yeah, we dragged him. Don't worry.
39:12It's just, I got to do it on every show.
39:15And then once Sutton finishes the top 15 wide receiver, I will, I will certainly hear it at the end of the season.
39:22Yeah. All right. Uh, again, we don't have a ton of time, but Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson, their stocks going up.
39:29But Kyle Lemon stock is going down. Yeah. Yeah.
39:32He's like, we talked about that draft yesterday. He, he fell to like one 20, which is like three, three full rounds
39:38past where his ADP was last week. I'm scared of Makai Lemon from the standpoint of, you know, in a managed league, you lose confidence in players.
39:46And then he's going to be one of those guys where you're just like, oh, he's not playing enough to start the year.
39:53I got to do something. Maybe I drop him in a shallower league.
39:57And then you're in this position where like he blows up the second half of the league or second half of the year, which is very possible.
40:05Um, so I am a little bit nervous about that, but Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson, they're very good prospects.
40:11Like just period. Like look at what the zap model was saying.
40:15I mean, Jordan Tyson, especially I'm not like shocked that he's getting steam because the numbers were just so, I mean, he
40:22had like a 99th percentile breakout score. The dude was phenomenal on paper.
40:26Um, and that's the kind of stuff that typically does work out.
40:29You just got to stay healthy. You know, Tyson has to stay healthy, but, um, I think both of them are pretty
40:36good picks this year, especially Tyson at his ADP.
40:38Cause on most platforms, he goes a lot after where Carnell Tate's gone.
40:42Okay. And then real quick, if we're taking any questions, any quick thoughts on Jacoby lane, I probably should have had him with this.
40:50Let's talk about it. Let's go to today's data.
40:52Let's do it. All right. Without further ado, let's get to today's data.
40:56Today's data. A lot of wide receivers are getting steam right now.
41:00These rookie wide receivers. And the interesting part about this year's draft class.
41:04And I talked about this in the guide. I talked about it on the show a lot.
41:09We had a lot of day two picks. We had a lot of top three round picks, uh, at wide receiver, but
41:15so many of them objectively had pretty like mid profiles.
41:18Now I had said on these shows, do you remember this kitchen where I was like, it was, it was, uh, a,
41:25a probability driven stance where if you have so many of these players out there, some of them are going to naturally hit like that.
41:33We don't expect to hit. Right. But this was by far the hardest year for me to figure out what to do
41:39at wide receiver after the first handful were gone.
41:42To me, there was a big four in this class where, you know, Tyson and Tate were clearly the top two for me.
41:49Makai Lemon and Concepcion were sort of in the next tier.
41:52And then it was sort of like a choose your own adventure with what you want to do after that.
41:58We're like, you know, I could make an argument for Cooper and Denzel Boston next, which is what I think I did
42:05in my, in my rankings and tears and such, but then it gets into like dribbling and yeah.
42:10And like stribbling and like, like Jeremy Bernard. And so what I wanted to do here was show you guys here, all
42:17the wide receivers since 2019 and who scored 12 or more PPR points per game as rookies.
42:22Okay. And what I wanted to do is show you their career yards per out run, which is relatively predictive in college.
42:29And then their breakout score, which is a number from zero to a hundred that looks at adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt.
42:36So that adjusted is for program strength and age.
42:39Okay. So anything like this isn't percentile, but anything in like the 30 to 40 range, like 40, I think is like
42:45a 50th percentile type number for breakout score, but you can see the average breakout score among these players.
42:51And you can see all the players listed here and you can see their breakout scores.
42:56You can see their career yards per out run was 60.5.
42:59Right. Um, and then you can look at, and mind you, some of these guys were early to Claire.
43:05Some of them weren't, uh, the biggest miss from a breakout score perspective is definitely Terry McLaurin, you know, lad McConkey's was
43:11really low, but you can see in their career yards per out run a player.
43:16Like McConkey, a player like tank Dell. Um, you know, they were, they were really high in the yards per out run department.
43:23And that was one of the reasons why you wouldn't necessarily just fade them completely.
43:27It's when you get a combination of the two that are low and you're like, okay, this is like Terry McLaurin is, is an outlier, right?
43:351.57 career yards per out run rate in a zero breakout score.
43:39Cause he just didn't get there, uh, from an age, uh, adjusted production perspective.
43:43Now you scroll down and you look at this year's class.
43:46And these are the guys that are getting steam.
43:49The most, I list Denzel Boston, Jacoby lane design, stripling Cyrus Allen and Caleb Douglas.
43:53And you can see all of these guys are below a 40.
43:57This is where I was saying that Denzel Boston really wasn't that bad because he had a, you know, a 44 breakout score.
44:04That's not that terrible, but it's certainly well below this average that we've seen from these guys who have hit 12 or
44:11more PPR points per game as rookies. Uh, Jacoby lane was at 36 design stripling below 30, you know, Caleb Douglas well
44:17below 30 and then their yards per out run rates only Cyrus Allen and Denzel Boston had career yards per out run rates above two.
44:25Now Jacoby lane is that sort of a disadvantage there because he declared early.
44:29So you would imagine if Jacoby lane went back to college, we'd probably see a higher yards per out run rate than
44:36some of these other guys, but it's just, they're, they're objectively not great analytical profiles.
44:40And the reason I'm bringing this up is because we are more than likely going to see most of these guys bust
44:47from a, from a jet, like just not be the most, you know, wide receiver three, two type players in fantasy football.
44:53I think that we're going to see probably one of these guys hit because again, we have so many of them in this class.
45:01And if, if some of them are getting hype, we're going to see a, an objectively bad analytical profile probably hit.
45:07And I'm going to talk about some of these guys in a second, but I do think it's interesting to at least
45:13like look at this objectively and remember that we do get steam from random players a lot in, in, in, uh, in the fantasy football world.
45:21And it just gets more and more every year because there's more and more people that are wanting that information, you know,
45:28more beat writers that are trying to give us that information.
45:31And it's not like the beat reporters are doing anything malicious or wrong.
45:35They're just saying what they believe. And then, you know, going from there.
45:39And remember we're solving something different than what teams are solving.
45:42Like, I think a really good example of that is Jacoby lane where he might be a very good situational type player for them in year one.
45:50And he might be very acrobatic and there might be some really good parts to his game, which I think there were
45:57when I watched him during prospect season. The problem is there wasn't that much like consistent separation from lane that I saw.
46:04And also the analytical profile was kind of mid, like it wasn't, it wasn't terrible, especially because it was an early declare, but it certainly wasn't great.
46:12So if you look at it from like what the Ravens need, he might be phenomenal.
46:17Right. But if you look at it from like a fantasy perspective, you're in a probably run first offense or run heavy
46:23offense where he might not be the top three target getter on that team this year.
46:28And then all of a sudden you're like, Oh yeah, he's not going to hit that 12 PPR points per game mark, you know?
46:35So like you got to think of it through that lens as well.
46:39So I just wanted to try to stay objective through this.
46:43We are going to see some of these guys, or at least one of these guys probably hit, but I don't want
46:49to get too out of hand because generally speaking, players who hit have better profiles than what we've seen from some of these players.
46:56Yeah. I remember around this time last year, a guy we were talking about a lot was Trey Harris.
47:02You know, he had a ton of steam. Um, and so you have to be wary of some of the camp highlights videos.
47:09Although I have seen one, I would love for somebody to like, uh, like, like aggregate all the stuff that's happened in
47:16the past from a, from a hype perspective and just look at how few those players like actually hit, you know?
47:22Yeah. And I guarantee you, I guarantee you it would be pretty shocking.
47:26So Justin Watson is, uh, or Cyrus Allen, Justin Watson 2.0.
47:29I mean, there's, it seems like out of chief's camp, doesn't matter what, you know, what year it is out of chief's camp.
47:36There is someone that we are getting irrationally excited about.
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48:36That's LifeLock.com code FOOTBALL. Again, LifeLock.com code FOOTBALL. Let's get on to some deep sleepers.
48:40The late round main event. So I want to preface this by saying everything relates back to cost, right?
48:46So I just went over all these players that have kind of like questionable analytical profiles.
48:51And from a process standpoint, you don't want to like go overboard with them.
48:55But going overboard is more from my perspective of like a dynasty perspective because there's a bigger cost in acquiring because it's a future type selection.
49:03Whereas in a season long league, Deson Stribling, the first guy on this list is a double digit round pick and one
49:09of the best offenses in football that has been consistently one of the best offenses in football.
49:15So go after that, you know? So we're going to talk deep sleepers here.
49:19The qualifications in order for these players to find themselves on this list.
49:23I looked at Fantasy Pros ADP. I looked at past 200th overall.
49:26And as I say, not in your league. I know that these guys like obviously Deson Stribling is rising up draft boards,
49:33probably not a 200th overall pick, but I used it as the threshold just to have some sort of way of finding these players.
49:40So let's just kick things off with Deson Stribling.
49:43I definitely, like I said, thought there were question marks for him as a prospect.
49:47It's very rare to see a high risk player, which is what he was in the zap model, a player who the
49:54model did not like as much as the draft capital to a degree that it flagged him as a high risk player.
50:01If you look historically at top 100 picks who were high risk players, only Tank Dell was a, there's 20 of them
50:07that, that ended up only, only Tank Dell was able to score 12 or more PPR points per game as a rookie
50:14among the 20, I think there's 20 high risk top two or like day two wide receivers.
50:19So Stribling finds himself in that bucket. Not a great bucket to find yourself in 31st percentile breakout score yards per out
50:26run in his career in the 20th percentile. But again, I do think that Stribling, the more I've thought about Stribling, the more I thought about the situation.
50:34I do think that he has a good yak profile and we've seen good yak profiles like this be pretty good in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
50:42And there's obviously opportunity there, right? Like I was thinking about this.
50:45I would not have ranked Stribling where I ranked him, not only because I've done a little bit more thinking about the
50:52fit in the scheme and I, you know, like, like just doing all that.
50:56But also if we knew Ricky Pearsall was going to be out this year, like he'd be like a, a, a first
51:03round rookie pick if we knew that was happening for sure.
51:06Right. Right. Um, so I, I think that, that, you know, he's a good blocker seemingly.
51:11And so all of that, I think he's actually pretty good dart throw and manage leagues right now.
51:16Yeah. And, uh, I know that we don't, uh, you know, we don't love like keeper questions because everyone's keeper leagues are
51:23different, but I would say that this list right here, if you're in a keeper league, you need to pay attention because
51:30a lot of these guys you could keep for next year.
51:33Yeah. Yes. If they go off and that's the whole point of keeper leagues.
51:37All right. Next on the list, we have Marshawn Lloyd.
51:40Yeah. I mean, look, I, I, again, he's a player that the zap model wasn't like in love with.
51:46Um, and by the way, I just got word that the Emeka Buka injury is not serious.
51:51So we're, we're, yeah, I knew it was, I wasn't going to speak it on this show, uh, soft tissue injury.
51:57So I didn't want to, I didn't want to say anything.
52:01So I'm glad. Yeah. Um, there was like a, for, for anyone listening, there was like a two hour period where a
52:07Buka was hurt and it sounds like it's not serious.
52:10Anyway, the zap model didn't love Marshawn Lloyd, but definitely viewed him as like a complimentary piece.
52:15He had a really good athletic profile, 111 speed score, which is really strong.
52:20We already talked about Josh Jacobs, that workload's getting higher.
52:23He's already banged up. He said the off the field issues.
52:26I do think that offensive line could be a problem, but I've said this stat so many times in the show, Matt
52:32LaFleur offenses, since he got to green Bay have never ranked outside the top half of the league and touchdowns per game.
52:39It's just a good scheme. He's a good coach.
52:42They should score points. Uh, and Marshawn Lloyd's actually healthy right now.
52:45So I think that he's a good dart throw in the final rounds of your drop.
52:50And we talked about earlier on this show with a news item is that he actually went to rehab school.
52:56Like he's right. Yeah. It's like a Christian Watson situation last year where Watson was like going, I think he went to like Germany or something.
53:04I feel like all these athletes just go to Germany whenever they, whenever they're really banged up.
53:09That's the Kobe Bryant. Got something in the water.
53:12Christian McCaffrey did it too, right? Yeah. Okay. Uh, Keenan Allen next on this list.
53:16I know he's not currently on a team. Uh, unless you count my, unless you count my best ball teams.
53:22Cause he's on a lot of those. Uh, I feel like I draft him in the 18th round.
53:28Every single best ball draft at this point. Is this wish casting JJ?
53:32Yeah, a little bit. Yeah. I, I, guys, I need desperately need Keenan Allen to sign anywhere just, just to be active playing football this year.
53:40Uh, but look, I don't think he was like, I think that people look at him as washed, but he led the
53:46chargers last year, the wide receivers and target share yards per out run and targets per out run 26% targets per out run rate.
53:53So the moment he signed somewhere, his ADP is going to rise.
53:57If he signs in Indianapolis, you're getting a massive, massive gain in value immediately because of the way that Alec Pierce is
54:04trending and the way that that offense needs a wide receiver.
54:07So, uh, I think you should be drafting Keenan Allen in your leagues right now because, uh, he's, he's hopefully going to
54:14sign somewhere and he wasn't as bad as you probably think last year.
54:18Hoping, um, the Chris Ballard and the, and the Colts front office is listening to this show right now.
54:23All right, next on the list, the guy that we just talked about Trey Harris.
54:28People would be shocked, but Trey Harris is my highest exposed wide receiver in best ball right now.
54:33Um, really? Yeah. Uh, and it's not because I think that he's an undeniable talent.
54:38He was an older breakout, but crazy per route run metrics, uh, during his final season or like towards the end of
54:44his collegiate career last year, wasn't super inspiring though.
54:47He ran fewer than 300 routes, 1.1 yards per outrun rate, 15% targets per outrun rate, but there's no more Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston.
54:55There's just a massive gap between QJ to Trey Harris, especially in best ball.
54:59It's not as bad and managed season long platforms, but he's commanded over a 17% targets per outrun rate.
55:04Just once in his career, QJ has. So this is really just a question of what if Trey Harris just progresses a
55:11little bit as a year two player and QJ, they don't like the fit.
55:15I like, I think QJ can be a decent fit with his yak ability in the offense, but, uh, Trey Harris has some ball skills.
55:23I mean, we saw that, that highlight real catch that he had yesterday where the fender was all over him and he
55:29just, he just mossed them kind of, and like, like grab the ball from behind his, uh, the defender's back.
55:35Um, so it's really just a question of like, this is a good offense.
55:40You're pairing him in a good offense. I don't think you really, in most season long leagues need to target him per
55:46se, but if you want to throw him at the end of your bench to see what happens in week one, I think that's fine for the show.
55:55Matt Waldman was talking about how that was one of his specialties in college is, is tracking ball in the air.
56:01So, and if you look at the highlights again, you get easily excited about Trey Harris and not so much about Quentin
56:08Johnston because anything that you're seeing on social media right now with QJ is him dropping a pass and everyone groaning.
56:14Uh, but yeah, I'm, I'm with you there as far as Trey Harris.
56:18And I'm also with you, you know, I'm here for the next Singleton hype.
56:22So he's technically just inside the top 200, but I wanted to give you guys another running back that I think is
56:29interesting at the, at the end of your draft.
56:31So, uh, Tony Pollard has posted below a 0.8 yards per out run rate in three straight seasons.
56:37And he's 29 years old. Uh, and you saw last year, there were some pretty bad usage splits when Tajay Spears was healthy.
56:44And speaking of Spears, he's just been mostly used as a, uh, a pass catcher in this Titans offense.
56:49Now, obviously there's a new coaching staff. We'll see what happens, but Nick Singleton probably would have been drafted higher.
56:55Had he not had that foot injury at the senior bowl this year, he has good size.
57:01He has good speed and that size speed combination.
57:03It could end up being, I said this during draft season, it could end up being a CJ pro size situation for sure.
57:10Like we see this kind of archetype of running back come out and, you know, like DJ Giddens even to a degree
57:17where it's like, like really phenomenal receiving numbers and really athletic, but they just don't have it.
57:22Like they don't have that vision and that ability to, uh, you know, be a reliable running back, but I will still
57:29throw that dart given where they're being drafted for an 80th percentile or 80th percentile plus reception, best season reception share and
57:35adjusted yards per team pass attempt for a player with this size and speed.
57:39It's very, very intriguing. And Oh, by the way, their offensive coordinator, Brian Dable has not been afraid of using day three
57:46running backs, uh, as rookies, Tyrone Tracy, cam Scadaboo in recent seasons.
57:50So I would not be shocked if he just lets the best talent went out and maybe as the season goes on,
57:56we see a little bit more Nick Singleton. Okay.
57:59Next on the list, Cyrus Allen, someone, if you are a prospect guide purchaser, you did not see in the prospect guy.
58:06Why is that? He was on the prospect guide this year because he, uh, did not get invited to the combine.
58:12So he was, I did rank him as a top 48 player rankings, uh, Cyrus Allen.
58:17So he is there, but there was no profile on him because he was not invited to the combine, but he had a 42nd percentile breakout score.
58:25That could be way worse for a day three pick his career yards per hour run showed that earlier 2.07.
58:31He ran 37% of his routes from the slot, which obviously is a Rasheed rice, you know, spot in that offense, but
58:37he was really efficient from the slot and he could get downfield.
58:41That's the, that's the piece with Cyrus Allen that if this works out, it could really unlock a lot for the chiefs offense.
58:48He had a 79th percentile a dot in college.
58:51He had an 85th percentile despite being smaller. He's like 180 pounds, but he had an 85th percentile contested catch rate in college.
58:58Um, I just think the chiefs really need a player like this.
59:01Patrick Mahomes has struggled throwing the ball deep over the last couple of years.
59:05And I do think that Cyrus Allen can fill some sort of role that, you know, it's like a better Taequann Thornton, uh, in this offense.
59:13And maybe there's even more to his game if he's able to develop.
59:17Yeah. I thought what you said in your becoming a best ball bro episode where he is better in a redraft league
59:24than a best ball league, because if it doesn't work out, you just cut him.
59:28Right. Right. Yeah. I mean, I'm still drafting him in best ball, but yeah.
59:33Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Uh, next on the list, cover boy, Greg Dulcich.
59:36It's a wide open pass catching room. You're always looking for that for your tight end breakouts.
59:41Uh, he only ran 145 routes last year, but he had a 2.31 yards per out run rate.
59:47There's been five tight ends drafted outside the top 12 who had between 100 and 300 routes run since 2014 and a
59:53yards per out run rate above two. So very efficient, but not a ton of routes.
59:58Three of those five tight ends outpace their ADP expectation by, by four PPR points per game or more, which is kind of crazy.
60:05Um, so I'm, I'm in on Dulcich as just a dart throw to see if maybe he could develop something with Malik
60:12Willis and be one of the top target getters in that Miami offense.
60:16Okay. Next on the list. We have, uh, a guy who they're calling Patty ice.
60:20Yeah. Pat Bryant. There's some, like, this is one player where there's just like undeniable camp hype.
60:26Right. Right. Yes. And, and I, I wrote about this in the prospect guide.
60:30So I'm just going to cite some of this cause I do the year two profiles.
60:35Right. So this is Pat Bryant's year two profile from weeks one to eight.
60:39Pat Bryant saw just a 36% route share. He averaged 3.6 points per game and just a 0.48 yards per out run rate.
60:46That is horrendous. But then Troy Franklin, they started scaling his usage back.
60:50And then Bryant saw a 69% route share and a 1.58 yards per out run rate, which is pretty strong for a wide receiver.
60:57So that's from then on out, they were going to feature him in that playoff game before he was concussed.
61:03And he left that game. Cortland Sutton. Oh my gosh.
61:06There's his name again. He's going to be 31 in October.
61:09He's command Cortland Sutton, Sutton commanded a target on fewer than 20% of his routes run last year.
61:15Denver has been top five in passing volumes since Bo Nix entered the league.
61:19I could see Pat Bryant carving out a role.
61:21And dare I say, dare I say, towards the end of the season, pushing for more snaps at the X in the Denver offense.
61:29Who's who's currently in the snaps for at the end?
61:32We won't. We won't have to. All right. People can, can, can, can figure that out.
61:37Last, but certainly not least guy that Philly signed.
61:39And Don Tavian Wicks. I do like the Sutton bit, by the way, it's, it's, it's, I think we got to just
61:46keep up the Sutton bit just to, yeah. Until he goes for like two touchdowns week.
61:51Oh, I'm going to be, I'm going to be destroyed.
61:54That's inevitably going to happen at least one week.
61:56Yeah. Don Tavian Wicks. You got McKay Lemon banged up.
61:59Wicks is getting reps is the number two wide receiver concentration and like drops have always been a concern for Wicks, but look at this in 2023.
62:082023, he gave us a 2.04 yards per outrun season in 2024.
62:11He saw a target on 25% of his routes run, which is a very, very strong number.
62:16What if he just brings it together? Cause he needed a change of scenery and Philadelphia.
62:21And that is an offense that needs a pass catcher to step up.
62:25No AJ Brown, Eli Stowers. It sounds like is not really going to be that dude here in, in 2026.
62:31And obviously McKay Lemon is banged up, throw that dart at Don Tavian Wicks, do it in best ball as well.
62:37I have so much Wicks in best ball. I have a lot of Pat Bryant in best ball too.
62:43But if you're talking managed season long leagues, I think he's a fine end of end of draft target for you.
62:49Okay. Callie underscore max says listener for about eight years.
62:52This is the first time I've catching you guys live.
62:55So happy. Love y'all. Listen, we love you too.
62:58And also right after this show is done, it's going to redirect you to the best ball stream where JJ is going
63:05to be drafting a team on our YouTube channel.
63:07He might need to take a drink of water in between then, but make sure you're sticking around for that.
63:13And with that being said, let's wrap this up.
63:16All right. As a reminder, like subscribe, comments, all that stuff.
63:19We like reading the feedback that you all have.
63:22Even if we disagree, JJ, you are known sometimes to engage with people that have different opinions.
63:27I like engaging with people on the internet if they want to have just like a normal discussion about football.
63:33You know, I, I, uh, I'm on Reddit a lot where I'm chiming in and trying to, you know, explain a stance that I have.
63:41And, you know, some people will just continue to, to trash me.
63:44That's fine. But there are many more people who, you know, embrace that and engage in it.
63:50And I think that that's healthy, right? Um, so I will gladly have discussions about players that you disagree with me on.
63:56I'm going to be wrong about stuff. You're going to be wrong about stuff.
64:00We're just trying to get better. And we're trying to really enjoy this hobby.
64:05Um, and, and, and, you know, get through the season and have a little escape.
64:09I think everyone needs a little escape from this world.
64:12And, uh, that's what I'm here for. That's why we love, uh, fantasy football.
64:16If you haven't listened already, make sure to listen to the players to target episode with Evan Silva earlier this week.
64:23If you're a best ball bro or want to become one, listen to the episode that dropped today.
64:28And, uh, we appreciate you keep on giving your feedback and hanging out with us during these live drafts.
64:34It is appreciated. Go to late round.com. You can sign up for the newsletter for free, get it into your inbox two, three times a week.
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64:50And again, shout out to draft Kings promo code late round final thoughts, JJ.
64:55I'm just glad you've got a great internet now at your house.
64:58Yeah, it was great. It was a seamless show after, after last week's show.
65:02This was a seamless show. Seamless show. You know, when we, when people ask like, what, what episode do you want to,
65:09you know, um, send submit for an award. Submit.
65:12This is, this is definitely the one. So, all right.
65:15Uh, stay tuned after this. JJ will be live on the channel for draft.
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