The Show: Market Score Ceiling Comps, Tight End Talk, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 6 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 25, 2026
Published
Thu, June 25, 2026
21
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Josh DownsAlec PierceTravis EtienneJavonte WilliamsAlvin KamaraBlake CorumBreece HallDaniel JonesDavid MontgomeryJeremiyah LoveKeenan AllenKyren WilliamsMarvin Harrison Jr.
Player analysis
Player insights
Alec Pierce
PositiveProjection0:15
There is a report suggesting Alec Pierce could double his targets from last year, but the analyst is skeptical of this projection given Pierce's historical target share profile.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:16
The analyst expects Alec Pierce could see a 23-25% target share this year and has shifted from not being on Pierce to thinking his cost is reasonable if healthy.
Insight pagePositiveInjury0:17
Alec Pierce's injury status is throwing a wrench into his draft plans and he is currently going way after where the analyst would target him if healthy.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
PositiveDepth Chart0:18
Alvin Kamara is being used as RB2 for the Saints, according to beat reporters, though there is uncertainty about his long-term role.
Insight pageBlake Corum
NegativeRole0:21
Blake Corum saw more work last year, which is a concern for Kyron Williams' workload.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveProjection0:21
The analyst is becoming more bullish on Breece Hall and considers him the easy go-to among the dead zone running backs.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
PositiveProjection0:13
Daniel Jones hits decent criteria for a late-round quarterback but is going late due to concerns about his Achilles injury recovery.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeProjection0:21
David Montgomery has a really scary profile according to the analyst.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue0:18
Javante Williams could easily be argued over Travis Etienne if making a volume play, as he has a weaker depth chart competition and is in a better offense with more ground work.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:19
Javante Williams is one of those players drafted to maybe exceed expectation by just a little bit, but a top-five outcome may not be possible given his likely usage and receiver peripherals.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveProjection0:22
Jeremiah Love is mentioned as one of the few running backs the analyst feels more comfortable with once past the dead zone tier.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveRole0:11
Josh Downs is lining up in different positions for the Colts and may not just be a gadget slot guy, with the host expressing confidence in his situation despite market score not valuing him as highly.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:14
Josh Downs is not at an unreasonable price tag in best ball and on DraftKings, but the analyst is not super overweight on him despite the recent hype.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:14
If Keenan Allen signs with Indianapolis, it would be bad news for Josh Downs as it would reduce his opportunity.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:28
Market score does not value Josh Downs as highly as the analyst would like, though the analyst believes his situation is different from his historical profile.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
PositiveValue0:14
Keenan Allen was not that bad last year per route run and the analyst is considering throwing a 20th round dart on him frequently, questioning why he hasn't found a team yet.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveProjection0:21
Kyron Williams is part of the dead zone running back range with question marks surrounding him, along with Breece Hall and Travis Etienne.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeValue0:17
If Alec Pierce were fully healthy and available in the late sixth round on DraftKings, the analyst would take him over Marvin Harrison Jr.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
NegativeValue0:18
The analyst is not aggressive on Travis Etienne and suggests he is not the prolific pass-catching back some believe him to be at the NFL level.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:20
Travis Etienne was not efficient last year from a yards over expected and success rate perspective, with Bayshor Tootin having a better success rate.
Insight pageNegativeRole0:20
Alvin Kamara's presence could dig into Travis Etienne's workload enough to make him a less desirable dead zone back, despite the analyst liking the Saints offense.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. You ever notice how everything keeps going up?
0:05Rent, streaming, even extra salsa at your favorite burrito spot?
0:08But with Boost Mobile, you don't have to play the Will It Go Up Soon game.
0:13Boost Mobile offers an unlimited talk, text, and data plan at a price that'll never go up.
0:19It's the same price you'll pay for life. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up, only at Boost Mobile.
0:26After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.
0:34You're about to listen to the The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:39If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atLateroundFF.
0:47We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
0:52Welcome in. Welcome in. It's the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, sponsored by DraftKings.
0:56David Kitchen here alongside JJ. JJ, how are you doing today?
0:59Better than you, buddy. Better than you. This is Kitchen's flu game, everybody.
1:03So I'm going to bring the energy today. It's on me to lift.
1:08I mean, I still am, too. If it's the Jordan flu game, it's like...
1:12That's true. But do we really believe he had the flu?
1:16It might have been food poisoning. It might have been pizza.
1:19Might have been a little bit too much to drink the previous day.
1:23Yeah, it could have been that as well. That wasn't me, though.
1:27That wasn't me. No, that's not you in this case.
1:30No. But still, you're Jordan. I'm Pippen here. Maybe...
1:33No, you're Jordan today. That's fine. No, no. You're Jordan.
1:36I'll be Steve Kerr. You know, John Paxton. Around those guys.
1:40Some Luke Longley action? Yeah. I'll be Kuk. I'll be Kuk.
1:43Yeah, Tony Kuk. Ron Harper, right? This is the basketball stuff that I can talk about because I was...
1:50I mean, who was it? Name a millennial that wasn't into the NBA in the mid-90s.
1:55Yeah. You know, it's tough to find. Starter Jackets.
1:58I'm sure there are some Zoomers out there that are like, what are these guys talking about?
2:03Yeah. My house... Because we didn't have an NBA team in Pittsburgh.
2:07And so, my brother, for whatever reason, got really into the Pacers.
2:11And so, I kind of grew up like a pseudo Pacers fan in a way, just because he was into them.
2:17So, you know, I loved Reggie and Rick Smiths and stuff.
2:21Those were fun teams. They just could never really get over the hump.
2:25I liked the Bulls. And it wasn't just because of Michael Jordan.
2:29Growing up in... Did you like the Yankees too, buddy?
2:32No, actually, I liked the Cubs. Because growing up in Nashville, there were two channels, TBS and WGN.
2:38And those were the two channels you could catch baseball games.
2:41And so, all my friends were TBS with the Braves.
2:45And I was WGN with the Cubs. And with that came the Bulls.
2:49And, you know, that was a good time to be a Bulls fan.
2:53So, it's funny because I live in Charlotte now, as everyone knows.
2:57So, I'm in the suburbs in Charlotte. And I've been here for about 12 years now.
3:02And when I moved here, I kept joking and telling people that I always was meant to live in Charlotte.
3:08Because I have a bunch of pictures of people wearing hornets gear.
3:12But it's funny because literally anyone anywhere had something hornets related.
3:16Like, I had one of those teal blue hats with a purple hornet that was, like, covering the whole hat, you know,
3:23that I would wear all the time. And so, I always would point to that.
3:28But who didn't have hornets gear growing up? But not only that, the hornets were, like, the go-to NBA.
3:34Someone was talking about NBA Jam in the comments.
3:37Ranch Dressing was about Rick Smith being an NBA Jam legend.
3:40Yeah. The hornets were the best NBA Jam team.
3:43Grandma, Mom. Larry Johnson. You had Alonzo Mourning. Muggsy Bogues.
3:46I mean, that's a fun group to play with in that game.
3:50We, I had to, this is just behind the scenes, but that's okay.
3:54Because we're still in June. But I had to fill out that survey for iHeart for, like, the host.
4:00And it was, like, what is his favorite teams?
4:03And I almost put, like, Carolina Panthers. But I just stuck with Pittsburgh.
4:07I mean, look, I can say the Panthers are my second favorite team.
4:12That's fine. You know, I have, I got the Steelers, you know, as my hometown forever team.
4:17But I like the Panthers. I'm happy the Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup.
4:21It's cool. It's a fun story. You know, it's local-ish.
4:24As people know, the Canes are in Raleigh, not in Charlotte.
4:28But my family lives in Raleigh. So. I don't think I knew that until you told us that last week.
4:34Or on one of the episodes. Yeah. Yeah, I can't remember what episode.
4:38There's so many episodes that we're doing. I can't remember if it's Best Ball Bro or if it's this one or whatever.
4:45But yeah, I mean, like, it's a Raleigh-based team.
4:48Brings us into the next point. We are producing, like JJ said, more content than ever.
4:53Four episodes this week. I mean, we've never done that before.
4:57And so four episodes on your podcast feed this week.
5:00We've got Becoming a Best Ball Bro that hit the, you know, it hit the podcast feed and the YouTube feed.
5:07I was actually watching on YouTube while I was working on the draft guide earlier with Neil Orfield.
5:13So that's happening. We have a newsletter with Market Score stuff by Brandon Gadula.
5:17Did that get sent out already? Yep. Just went out.
5:20Okay. So just went out. And again, all this stuff is late.
5:24LateRound.com. You can sign up for the newsletter and make sure you are liking and subscribing to the YouTube channel.
5:31And immediately after this, JJ, you are drafting a team live.
5:34Immediately. Yeah. Right after the show. Immediately after the stream, you'll be redirected to JJ's Best Ball stream.
5:40So stick around at the end of the show because I will be doing then a live stream.
5:46It'll take me like a minute or two to just get it set up.
5:50But I will be doing that. So if you're an audio listener, you can hop on the YouTube channel after you listen to this on Thursday.
5:59And you can rerun that live stream of the draft that I'll be doing.
6:03Hopefully it's not a bad one. Had some decent ones the last couple.
6:07But every once in a while you get those stinkers where you walk away and you're like, what is going on?
6:14I had one. I was away this past week for my daughter's dance competition.
6:18I mentioned that on Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
6:21And I went very running back heavy as just like, you know, change it up a little bit.
6:27And like, I'm talking like I'm going taking running backs early.
6:31But I mean, like I got four in the first five rounds.
6:34And I was like, OK, I'm done. I'm not going to get a running back.
6:39And then I had to walk away for a second because I was with my son and he needed something.
6:46And so I walked away for a second. And when I did that, I was on the clock and I went RB
6:53RB and got Keaton Mitchell and Woody Marks. And so my team just kind of went to the you know what, because
7:00when you invest that much capital early on and then you get those guys late, it kind of ruins the flow and what you need for your team.
7:09We'll see what happens. But that one's probably probably an L.
7:12Yeah. Last week when I was drafting on the late round stream, we had a troll.
7:17That's the only thing I could consider him is a troll because did not draft a quarterback to the last round.
7:24It was like a backup quarterback. Did they cancel the draft?
7:28I don't know if they did or not, but like everything else was fine.
7:32He just like his roster construction was messed up and he kept on taking tight ends.
7:37There's one team that had four tight ends and one team that had five tight ends.
7:42So I kept on thinking, I'm going to get tight ends later.
7:46Nope. It's all the time. Neil revealed that he's been drafted, had some five tight end teams that he talked about on
7:53becoming a best ball bro this week, which I, I was surprised by.
7:57I pushed back a little bit and was just like, like trying to get more out of him from that.
8:04And he, you know, he talked about why he was doing it.
8:08I thought it was a really interesting, you know, conversation, especially like he's going heavy tight end sometimes even with Brock Bowers.
8:15So I think it's just a, it's, it's a good conversation.
8:18I really enjoyed talking to Neil this week. Neil's a good guy.
8:22Speaking of best ball though, we do have our promotion.
8:25The draft Kings is a sponsor for this show and we appreciate them.
8:29It is draft one, get one into their $20 million draft Kings best ball millionaire maker.
8:35So you draft one and you get a bonus entry with that.
8:38And let me just say, other than that, because I know some people are like, Oh, best ball, you know, stop talking about best ball or whatever.
8:47It's just like mock drafts. This is how we used to talk about mock drafts.
8:52And even I get it. Like if, if you can't max in or, or you don't have the funds to, to play
8:59the, uh, the best ball millie, like, you know, you can still draft $3 teams.
9:04Right. Um, and they're incredibly fun and you can do a slow draft $3 team that takes you, you know, that takes
9:11like two weeks to complete, but you're at least in that draft.
9:15So, uh, they've got a ton of contests over, uh, at draft Kings and we appreciate them.
9:20And with that being said, JJ, we also have the draft guide that's releasing July 10th.
9:25We're in the final stages of putting that together, wrapping it up.
9:29I feel way less stressed than I was a week.
9:32And you can tell, yeah, you can tell, you know, Oh my gosh, I was getting really, but then, but then I
9:39started getting in a flow with, uh, what I, what I forget is that a lot of the way that I write
9:46the draft guide when I do the positional breakdowns is that some of the background of like what the league is doing
9:53and some trends there and what I'm looking at versus ADP expectation.
9:57I get that in the quarterback and running back sections.
10:00Cause this is the first two positions that I do.
10:04And I realized that once I get the wide receiver and tight end, I don't have to rehash that over and over
10:11again, which takes a lot of time to kind of establish that.
10:15So it was a lot easier to do the wide receiver and tight end sections than I anticipated.
10:20So now I feel like I'm in a good place and I don't have to like go absolutely nuts.
10:26I still need that July 10th release date, but, uh, it'll definitely be going out by then.
10:32I feel good about where we're at right now.
10:35So, and speaking of, you know, the July 10th date is because like, we still have like some news when it talks
10:42about player takes and stuff we are getting, we are still kind of gathering items, gathering reports.
10:47And I don't know, you know, for me, it's more like confirming my priors, but, uh, you know, we still have some news items.
10:55There wasn't a, there weren't a ton of news items this week, but it's a lot of like speculation and practice reports.
11:02So with that being said, let's get into it.
11:05It's today's news. Today's fantasy news. All right. I just put Josh Downs rocket right here because it seems like he's lining
11:12up different positions for the, uh, the Colts and maybe not just like a gadget slot guy.
11:17Yeah. Yeah. Shocker, right? We've only been talking about this for four months.
11:21I remember I did the, uh, Reddit AMA and someone asked me, this is back before the draft.
11:27And someone had asked me what my recent dynasty trade was.
11:31And this is, again, this is pre-draft. And my most recent trade was that I sent the 208 for Josh Downs and
11:38people were, you know, a lot of people, it was more favorable than not favorable.
11:43So, you know, I'm not going to, you know, do a podcast about Roma Dunze versus Mecca Buka in this way.
11:49Right. Um, which, which people did, some people did not like the rewind episode of that.
11:54Some people loved it and they're like, it's a great reminder.
11:58And some people are like, you know, why are you beefing with people?
12:02And I'm like, if that's your takeaway, man, that's, that's really not why, uh, I did that episode.
12:08But, um, I bring that up because at the time, you know, I, I just, I feel good about the way that I've read the Josh Downs situation.
12:17I'm not that surprised that he's getting the run that he's getting.
12:21And then you add on the Alec Pierce stuff and it's just like, there's going to be a lot of opportunity for
12:28Josh Downs to at least prove himself. And yeah, I mean, market score doesn't like Josh Downs as much as I would
12:35like, which is a little bit scary. But if you think about it, like market score is basing things off of historical,
12:42you know, numbers and, uh, what we've seen in history.
12:45And I think Downs is situation is a little bit different than what we've seen from him historically.
12:51I still think though, that Indianapolis has a lot, like, I don't know if the market is really considering how volatile the
12:58quarterback position could be for Indianapolis this year. You know, where we're, we're hoping for the best with Daniel Jones, right?
13:05And, and Jones himself actually hits a lot of the like decent criteria that you would want for a late round quarterback.
13:12But we obviously know why he's going as late as he is, is because of this Achilles and, you know, we've seen
13:19Kirk cousins not look right after the Achilles. Aaron Rogers wasn't really, I mean, definitely wasn't right until sort of like the
13:26end of that first year back from it. And so I'm a little bit concerned about what that might look like, but
13:33Josh Downs has always been someone that I liked a lot as a player, loved him as a prospect.
13:39Uh, I thought he was underdrafted whenever he, uh, came out.
13:42Um, and so I think that he can play more of a perimeter role.
13:47So we'll see what happens. I mean, there's not much competition.
13:50I've been saying it for, for a while. It's like Nick Westbrook, Akine.
13:55Are we really afraid of that? I think the bigger issue that we could run into is, is if Keenan Allen does
14:02sign with Indianapolis, which there is some rumor of that.
14:05And I think it makes a ton of sense for Indianapolis to do that.
14:09So keep that in mind instead of like, like, I don't know.
14:13I don't feel like Josh Downs is at an unreasonable price tag in best ball and on draft Kings right now, but
14:20I don't think he's like a smash where he goes necessarily.
14:24You know, like I'm not super overweight, despite everything I just said about like getting him in certain spots and whatnot, you
14:31know, before a lot of this hype happened. And if the Keenan Allen signing happens, that's actually, that's pretty bad news.
14:38Cause Keenan Allen was not that bad last year.
14:40Like I actually think Al, I was going to, you're doing it right now too.
14:45I was going to add it to the free agent list that we have going here.
14:50Uh, because the more I've like looked into Allen, the more I'm like, why am I not throwing the 20th round dart?
14:57Like really frequently with Keenan Allen right now. Like he, he wasn't that bad per route run last year in the context
15:04of what that chargers offense was doing, which was not a lot.
15:08He wasn't that bad of a, of a player.
15:11Like, I don't, I don't think he's like definitively toast, uh, just because he hasn't found a team yet.
15:17So, uh, I think that would, that would hurt Josh Downs and something to at least keep an eye on if, if they do go out.
15:26Because right now with the Alec Pierce stuff, with the lack of depth, they have a wide receiver.
15:31I would not be shocked at all if they go that direction.
15:35There was a, uh, you know, again, the time of year where just, you have to filter through all sorts of beat reports and speculation and predictions.
15:44And there was a report that's, uh, I think Alec Pierce was, could see two times.
15:49Yeah. Okay. Can we talk about that for a second?
15:52I don't want to be like 170 targets. I don't want to put the reporter on last, but, but this is exactly why, like.
16:00The best beat reporters are the ones who are not making up random projections.
16:04They're the ones that are giving us information and telling us how they generally think from like a percentage standpoint, like a backfield could be split.
16:13Like look at Nick, Nick Underhill is always kind of like the go-to best beat reporter you can find for an individual team.
16:20Uh, and he doesn't do that kind of stuff.
16:23He's not like, like, but yes, what you're saying is there's a report that says that Alec Pierce could double up his
16:30targets from last year, which would put him in like Jamar Chase territory.
16:34Right. Right. Like it's just, it could have happened short.
16:37Maybe there's like a 1% chance, but I've said it all off season too.
16:42Like, like Pierce has never been a high target share type player, uh, dating back to college too.
16:48Like it's just never been part of his game.
16:51I think that they're like, he's evolved and he's gotten better.
16:54And I think there's a chance that we see like a 23 to 25% target share from him this year, which is
17:01why if he were to be healthy, I went from thinking I wasn't going to be on Pierce at all in season
17:08long this year to being like, you know what?
17:11I, this cost really isn't that ridiculous. Now the injury keeps on falling.
17:15Yeah. The injuries thrown a little bit of a, of a wrench into the, into the whole plan.
17:21But like, I, I do think that if, if he were fully healthy and his ADP were in like the late six
17:28or something on draft Kings where, you know, after, you know, maybe around where like Marvin Harrison jr.
17:34Goes like I, I, if Alec Pierce were healthy, I'd be taking him over Marvin Harrison jr.
17:39Is, is essentially where I would be at. So he's going way after that at this point and because of the injury.
17:46Um, and so I, part of me wants to buy in, but this stuff about him seeing 170 targets and stuff, like, what are we doing here?
17:55Like what, what, what, what's going on? Leave, leave that to the nerds.
17:59Okay. Leave it to the nerds. Uh, let's skip down because you mentioned Nick underhill.
18:04It's a good segue. Alvin Kamara. It's RB two territory.
18:07Uh, this was by underhill triplets, uh, few other saints, uh, beat reporters.
18:11They don't know what the end game is for Kamara being there still, but he is RB two.
18:17Um, and we've seen his ADP climate just a little bit on DK.
18:21Yeah. The weird thing though, is that Travis ET ends hasn't really changed that much from, from, from what I've at least experienced anecdotally.
18:29I think that this is a reason to, to not be in on Travis ETN right now.
18:34Like I haven't really been that aggressive. I love the wide receivers in that range.
18:39I think you could easily argue Javante Williams over Travis ETN.
18:43If you're going to make a volume play argument, it's like, like, especially if you're not like ETN is not this like
18:50prolific pass catching back that I think some people think he is.
18:54Uh, he, he's, he, he definitely was able to do that in college.
18:58And like, that was what he was sort of projected to do in the NFL, but he hasn't been that guy necessarily at the NFL level.
19:06And so when you think about it and you're going to compare and contrast like Javante to Travis ETN and Javante usually
19:13goes after ETN in a lot of these drafts.
19:16When you, and I'm not even a huge, huge into Javante guy.
19:20It's just that like, if you were to compare and contrast Javante has a weaker depth chart, if you're assuming Camara sticks
19:27around Javante is a weaker depth chart to compete with.
19:30And he's in a better offense. He's in a better situation.
19:34He's going to see more work on the ground.
19:37Now I worry a little bit about what Javante might be able to do from a ceiling perspective as a receiver.
19:43Like, I think he's one of those players that you're drafting to maybe exceed expectation by just a little bit, but I'm
19:50not sure top five outcome is really possible given the way that they're going to likely use him and what his peripherals
19:57look like as a receiver last year. But I kind of feel similarly about Travis ETN.
20:02ETN was not that good last year from like a efficiency standpoint and, you know, yards over expected and stuff perspective.
20:09I believe yards over expected definitely success rate. I know that Bayshore Tootin had a way better success rate than ETN did last year.
20:17And so the way I'm thinking of it is like, is, is Alvin Camara going to have standalone value in your season long league?
20:25Probably not. I don't think that's going to happen.
20:27Could you throw a dart and best ball? Sure.
20:30But I think that he could dig into ETN just enough to make ETN a less desirable player to choose, like more
20:37of like a more traditional dead zone back, if you will, where you're kind of making the assumption that he's going to see a lot of work.
20:46But maybe the body of work really isn't totally there for ETN.
20:50But then at the same time, I really like the offense and I want to, you know, I want to invest in the Saints and such.
20:58But right now, today, I do think that Camara is more of the hurting ETN than having standalone value himself.
21:05And that's a problem, though, because ETN is that three, four turn type pick.
21:09And there's a lot of good wide receivers going around there.
21:13Yeah. And you talk about the dead zone because that range of running backs is Kyron Williams, Brees Hall, ETN.
21:19Like, you know, all that have a little bit of question marks surrounding them.
21:24Yeah. I mean, to me, like, I think Brees is the easy go to among those guys.
21:29I still worry a little bit about Kyron just because we saw more and more Blake Corum last year.
21:35And you could even throw Javante and David Montgomery into that mix, too.
21:39I think David Montgomery is really scary, has a really scary profile.
21:43Javante has somewhat of a scary profile, like I've talked about on the show and last week with like alarming numbers and stuff.
21:50But the situation is clearly there for Javante. And then you get into the sort of like the younger players, you know,
21:57the guys who have this like, you know, like like Byshaw Tootin and such.
22:02But and Quinchon Judkins or Cam Scadaboo. But a lot of those guys have have question marks.
22:07I mean, once you get past the Jeremiah Love and maybe I'll throw Brees Hall.
22:12I'm becoming a little bit more bullish on Brees Hall.
22:15Maybe like once you get past those guys, you really do start to feel uneasy about the running backs you're drafting.
22:22And the wide receivers, though, have a lot of upside, you know, in that in that area.
22:28All right. It is tight in you week. So all these tight ends gathered in Nashville.
22:33Taylor performed a concert last night, apparently. So, you know, that's that's happening.
22:37But we're we're kind of focused on what's happening on the field.
22:41You have Darren Waller at tight end you. And I don't know if he's going to be like a fly in the
22:48ointment kind of deal or if he has like any sort of standalone value.
22:52But the fact is, he said he's been working out six days a week and he's not working out for nothing.
22:59That's what he said. Yeah. I mean, by the way, I want to I want to address this really quick in the chat.
23:06Says another season, another year, people bashing Kyron, yet he continues to produce.
23:11OK, go look at his like last year. Yes, he exceeded expectation, but not by much like the volume argument and the idea.
23:18The Rams offense was spectacular last year. Matthew Stafford won MVP.
23:21And yet Kyron Williams wasn't like out of control league winning type player because they did.
23:27He is a volume dependent type back. Fortunately, he sees a lot of goal line work.
23:32I'm not saying that he's a fade. I'm not fading him at the moment.
23:36But what I am saying is it's a volatile profile given how they started to deploy Blake Corum down the stretch.
23:43I mean, it was a very real like ding to Kyron Williams upside when they started using Blake Corum more and more.
23:50So, look, I get it. People. I do think that the narrative with like the bashing Kyron is a little bit overblown.
23:57It's not like he's been the starter there for like that.
24:01People act like he's been the starter for L.A.
24:03for like six years. And it's just like every year people are just bashing Kyron Williams.
24:09He's fine, guys. I just don't think he has a top five ceiling like legitimate.
24:13And then again, so like the question is Rams D is so much better this year.
24:18Don't you think they run more? Sure. I don't think Kyron Williams is like a terrible pick.
24:24I'm just saying that they don't throw to their running backs in the system very frequently.
24:29And Blake Corum is getting more work in the offense.
24:32And it's a little bit scary. Like I still think that when I make the point that Kyron has a volatile profile,
24:39I think that's a pretty reasonable take to have that that with Blake Corum there and them coming off such an efficient season offensively.
24:47I don't think we can just assume that that continues year over year.
24:51Let's talk about tight ends, though. You have Kyle Pitts on here, too, that we didn't talk about Kyle Pitts.
24:58Yeah, I was going to after the tight end you stuff.
25:01Yeah, it's go back to the Pitts deal. Three years, fifty four million dollars for the Falcons.
25:07You know, there were some possibilities that he might not go.
25:10He might not stay with the Falcons or their trade, you know, whatever.
25:14But he is there for at least another three years.
25:17Yeah. So Pitts actually, I wish I had more in best ball because he does check a lot of like the trend
25:24boxes in general that you would want. He is in that like traditional like tight end dead zone area where there's no
25:32correlation from like tight end seven to tight end 18.
25:35Historically, which is a little bit scary. But again, there's just not that much competition there.
25:40And that's really what you're aiming for with a lot of those players.
25:44So good for Kyle Pitts, you know, get in the bag, getting some money and really just having like an unfair just
25:51having some unfair expectations attached to him, I think is what that comes down to.
25:56I will say, though, like we talked about this with the alarming stats like his numbers were pretty scary without or sorry, with Drake London last year.
26:05They were way better without Drake London. So keep that in mind as well.
26:09And there's a new system that's going to be in place there that hypothetically could be favorable because Stefanski has been a
26:16pretty tight end heavy coach in the past. But I don't think it's a lock that that we know exactly, you know,
26:23that Kyle Pitts is going to be a high end tight end one.
26:27But Darren Waller looks kind of the part last year when he got run for Miami.
26:32I wouldn't be shocked if he can find somewhere and like be like a 60 percent, 50 to 60 percent route share
26:39guy and be a red zone threat, kind of like what he played for with Miami.
26:45I mean, honestly, if the if the Chargers hadn't signed David and Joku, you got to wonder if maybe they were a
26:52team that would want to go after him and use him.
26:55But maybe they wanted a little bit more of an all around tight end than what Waller is at this point.
27:02But yeah, I think it's it's a player to monitor.
27:05I don't know if you draft him in basketball right now, but it's at least a player to monitor, you know, as the as the summer goes along.
27:14If you're if you're fine with a zero, he's available there in the 20th round.
27:19Yeah, there's a legit there's very legit chance that he would be a zero for you.
27:24So he wants to go to a contender. Speaking of contenders, George Kittle looking good at tight end you.
27:30We have some video of him running drills. I mean, it just seems like he has defied all odds there.
27:36Yeah, I mean, but look, there was an Achilles injury that apparently, according to doctors, wasn't in like the bad part of the Achilles.
27:44So there people aren't as shocked that he's able to bounce back.
27:48But I do think that, you know, there's there's two like thoughts that I have about Kittle.
27:53From a weekly upside perspective, you could argue that almost no other tight end has as much weekly upside as George Kittle does.
28:01Like in a given week, we know that he can blow up.
28:05But I do think that we have to be realistic and realize that he's on the bad side of the age curve.
28:12He's coming off a pretty tough injury. You know, they get Mike Evans, who's a red zone threat.
28:17So like I don't think that you need to go crazy for Kittle.
28:22But I do think that, you know, if you haven't drafted Kittle, you probably should draft some Kittle and have him as part of your portfolio.
28:30If you're looking at this from a best ball perspective.
28:33And then one season long starts, we'll see what is what is where his ADP settles.
28:38I don't think that in season long he's going to necessarily be like a target, but I don't think he's a void
28:45either just because we know the upside is there.
28:48OK, we have more glowing talk. Someone posted this on our discord and the news and rumors channel that Chig continues to
28:55impress there in Washington and that he and Jane Daniels are getting on the same page.
29:00I'm glad I drafted a lot of Chig Akankuo before I wrote the draft guide this year, because the way that your
29:07your Titans deployed him last year was not great from a predictive standpoint.
29:12And for me, we're such a vanilla offense last year and like they replaced our offensive coordinator in the middle of the season.
29:19Yeah, no, look, I we can excuse away a lot of this stuff because some of the big things that Chig does not like check, right?
29:27Are really poor per route efficiency because the offense had was not very efficient through the air.
29:33So obviously there's a correlation there, but also he had a pretty low a dot last year.
29:38Like he was not getting down the field. And that's also something that we want more of from previous season data.
29:45Like if we get higher a dots from these tight ends, it gives us signal of not only were they being deployed
29:52as receivers, but they were downfield threats. And that shows probably a little bit of a talent profile to be able to
29:59get some of those looks down the field. And his his weren't there last year.
30:04And so there are some like scary trends with him, but it's a completely different environment for him.
30:10And if you look at the team environment, you only have Terry McLaurin there that you're seriously worried about.
30:16Like like McLaurin is going to project for a higher target share than a Conkwo will.
30:21But outside of him, there's a lot of question marks are already talking about like a wide receiver rotation in that in that second spot.
30:29Maybe they get IUC, maybe they don't. But there's a very real chance that a Conkwo, you know, is the number two target getter on Washington this year.
30:38And if that's the case in this new offense, that's pretty attractive.
30:42So I do think that that he's still a pretty good late round pick.
30:46Yeah. Also, when he was in Tennessee, he, you know, he was having to compete with the Titan with the last name
30:53of Helm, who has just dominated as well. Yeah.
30:56He might be one of my most owned Titans.
30:59He's top. He's top four for me. Oh, really?
31:02Yeah. It's because I just get the late the late Titan stack whenever I am panicking.
31:07Yeah. Okay. Good. We're on our on team Gunnar Helm.
31:10Yeah. Well, you're taking a W now? No, no, no.
31:13You were on a W now last year. I just say it.
31:17Someone might have made fun of me last year.
31:20Yeah. Last year. Was I wrong? I just. Well, we're talking about like the career.
31:25I just think people were looking at his. Yeah, of course.
31:28His 40. His 40. He was hurt. Yeah. Yeah.
31:31And yeah. Anyways, this isn't a. Wasn't like a.
31:34It wasn't like a can't miss profile though. Right.
31:37And he still might not be, you know, that great, but.
31:41Yeah. Yes. He is one of your top four tight ends.
31:44So maybe you do. Exposure wise. Not, not ranked for the record.
31:48Right. Chris Alave cleared. His ADP has dropped quite a bit.
31:52Yeah. Just because this news. And now it looks like he's cleared.
31:55He's going to be off blood thinners. Um, you know, here soon.
31:59And he'll be back to playing football. Yeah. I mean, look, I think that Alave, I've said it before on the show.
32:06Like I'm a little bit worried about what the target share could look like.
32:11I like the saints offense this year. Um, so, you know, I'm, I'm throwing darts and I'm still drafting Alave, but a
32:18lot of that has to do with the fact that there's become this like more ambiguous area in round three of these drafts, which is where Alave goes.
32:27So it's a little bit easier to draft in there.
32:30I think I still like Devante Smith more than Alave, which is probably a contrarian take.
32:35Uh, but only maybe by like a spot. It's not like dramatic or anything.
32:40Um, and so, you know, and then once you get into like the Zay flower range and the ladder range, um, I,
32:47I, I have a lobby ahead of those guys at the moment, but I mean, we'll talk about one of them.
32:53I, I, today, I think maybe both of them today.
32:57So I'll have some more takes on, on Zay and lad, but, um, I think a lot of is fine where he goes.
33:04I just, I, I worry about players who are coming off these like career target share seasons.
33:09And obviously Alave was great. And I'm an Alave truther.
33:13I've loved him since he entered the league. Uh, if you followed my work, I'm just saying like, if Jordan Tyson is
33:20healthy, I don't think Chris Alave is going to see a higher than a 27% target share more than likely when he was at 30% last year.
33:28And so there is some of that volume concern year over year, but he can still pay off and be fine.
33:35So I'm not, he's not like someone that you got to like clear fade.
33:39I'm just saying that there's going to be some people that are like really bullish and I'm not part of that group.
33:47Okay. There continues to be steam and like good things said about Brian Thomas Jr.
33:51They're in Jacksonville. Apparently, you know, it was reported that he and Trevor Lawrence weren't on the same page for the past couple of years.
33:59The chemistry this off season has been building. He's going to be a long distance threat for big plays.
34:05You know, what are you doing with Brian Thomas Jr.
34:09Now compared to Parker Washington? I'm going to keep the take of, I am going to draft these guys in best ball
34:16and I'm probably not going to be as excited in season long.
34:20Um, because I do think there's a lot of good players and they're, they're also hyping up Brenton strange right now.
34:26Like, like there's a lot of love for strange that he's going to be a focal point in the offense.
34:33Like you can't have four focal points in an offense.
34:36It just is not, it's just all that means that all these guys are going to see 18% target shares, you know?
34:43So Brian Thomas Jr. Like where'd they go is fine.
34:46I I'm drafting both part. I know we were in a draft together, uh, serendipitously, uh, a couple of days ago and
34:53you got the Parker Washington, BTJ, uh, you know, Trevor Lawrence stack, five, six turn and then T law in the next
35:00round stack, which I think is the way to go in bet.
35:04Like, I think that's a great five, six type, uh, look, uh, you know, at that, at that turn area, uh, just
35:11because there's kind of like a drop in wide receiver talent there.
35:15Or, I mean, I, I really liked the, the rookie tight or rookie wide receivers, but regardless, like you can go Parker
35:22Washington, you can get Brian Thomas, and then you can get Trevor Lawrence and you got a great stack there.
35:28Right. Um, but, but my, my issue is that I think Parker Washington checks a lot of boxes from, from previous year
35:35data and his ascension and what he's been doing or sorry, what he did.
35:40Uh, and he's getting a lot of hype too.
35:43So I think I'm going to keep Parker Washington, like one spot ahead of Brian Thomas for the, like for the time
35:50being in like a full PPR format. If you want to look at it from like a standard perspective and go Brian Thomas, that's fine.
35:58Um, just because I think there's a little bit more touchdown upside, but yeah, I mean, I think my, my opinion has
36:05not changed from last week of just saying like these guys are more attractive in best ball.
36:10In my opinion, uh, I'm not saying you fade them in season long, but I'm, I'm not gonna be as aggressive in
36:17season long as I am in best ball right now.
36:21What could happen that would make you flip them before the season?
36:25We get word that Parker Washington is not going to be playing in heavy personnel like that.
36:30And that's a real possibility. That's a very real possibility.
36:33I don't think that because like what I think could happen with Jacksonville is because their personnel right now is, is best
36:40suited for 11 is best suited for more, you know, wide receivers in the field.
36:45Cause Jacoby Myers is there too. Who's good. Like he's a very solid player and it's bizarre to me that he's getting
36:52no love, even though I, I, you know, I like the other two more, but like Jacoby Myers, like slips in drafts,
36:59like no one cares about Jacoby Myers. So, and Travis Hunter and Travis Hunter's there.
37:04You have, you have four really good wide receivers and you force the issue a little bit of tight end.
37:10Tanner Coziel is getting a lot of love, which is funny.
37:14The day three guy, does that model liked him more than what's his face?
37:18They drafted in round two. I I've just, I've just ignored his last name at this point because, because it was such a walking tight deck.
37:27Uh, Godula is in the chat so he can tell us.
37:30Yeah. So like, like it's, it's, it's, uh, it's one of those situations where like, I think they might start the season
37:37and be like, we got to go heavy because this is the NFL meta and we're going to force the issue a little bit.
37:45And then they're going to be like, why are we doing this?
37:49Why, why is Parker Washington not on the field more?
37:52And then we get to see him more on the field and we're like, oh, right.
37:57We dominated last year when we were able to rotate these guys around more.
38:02Uh, and that's where the, this offense, yeah. Bo Ricker.
38:05I was, or, or, or, what? I don't even know how to say it.
38:09Or, or Kerker. Or Kercher. Yeah. I always, I, I always, for some reason he's the, he's the one player in this entire draft class that I just.
38:18That's honestly Godula's fault for not phonetically, uh, just going it out for you.
38:23Yeah. There you go. Uh, but yeah, like I, I just, it's a, it's a, it's, it's a, a situation where I
38:30think Jacksonville is just like, what are we doing?
38:33And they then go to those players a little bit more, but BTJ like works better on the perimeter and he could
38:40be out there, you know, in these, in the heavy personnel more than Parker Washington.
38:45That's my fear with Washington. That that's where if we get a clearer picture there, that's where I would, I would flip them.
38:52Okay. Lots of tight end talk, uh, for today's news with tight end week.
38:56And we are just going to continue that with today's data.
39:00For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters.
39:04Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start.
39:07Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks.
39:15If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required.
39:19Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.
39:27Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur.
39:33Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine.
39:40Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today.
39:43Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. Hey, it's Erin Andrews from Calm Down with Erin and Krissa.
39:49I don't know about your house, but at my house, everybody's online.
39:53Streaming, gaming, shopping, Zoom calls, you name it. That's why having fast, reliable internet that can keep up really matters and why
40:00you need Optimum's famously fast fiber-powered internet. It blows flaky 5G home internet out of the water.
40:06It's fast and reliable and doesn't slow down when everybody's online, which, let's be honest, is all the time.
40:12Right now, they have a deal that's tough to beat, just $25 a month for five years.
40:17So don't wait. Call 866-9-OPTIMUM. Visit Optimum.com or stop by your local Optimum store today.
40:22Famously fast fiber-powered internet for $25 a month for five years.
40:25That's a no-brainer. Terms apply. See Optimum.com for details.
40:28Today's data. All right, JJ, we have early round tight end hit rates.
40:32Yeah. So this one is a new one in the guide this year, and I thought it was really interesting.
40:39So if you look at top six tight ends historically, and you look at their previous season touchdowns per game, the tight
40:46ends who had a higher touchdowns per game. Now, there's not a massive sample because we don't get a ton of top
40:53six guys that qualified in terms of games played and stuff like that from the previous season.
40:58But the players who... So I split this up by 0.4 or fewer touchdowns per game, 0.4 to 0.6 touchdowns per game, 0.6 or more touchdowns per game.
41:07Okay. And you get 28 in the first bucket, 19 in the second, and 14 in the third.
41:13The guys in the third bucket, the 0.6 touchdowns per game or more in the previous season, they've underperformed against expectation most the following year.
41:21And it's likely because the market is looking at those players and saying, hey, they were really good last year.
41:28They're going to be really good this year without factoring in that touchdown regression is going to come.
41:33Not a single one of them outperformed ADP expectation by four more PBR points per game the following year.
41:39Only 7% of them did it by two or more points and only 36% of them outperformed expectation.
41:45Whereas the other two groups, you see a lot higher numbers, like much bigger numbers.
41:50Now you look at the 0.4 to 0.6 group.
41:53They've been very, very volatile. You get high ceilings and low floors, which is likely because the guys who are scoring a
42:00lot of touchdowns the previous season probably have a talent profile associated with them.
42:04That's pretty good. And that's why they have better floors than you would expect, but their ceilings aren't as good because their ADPs are just too high.
42:13Right. And then the guys who didn't score many touchdowns at all the previous year per game, they do very, very well against expectation.
42:21And so when you look at this year's landscape, the big red flag here is Trey McBride, which is hilarious because we
42:28were talking the opposite about Trey McBride throughout his career.
42:31Yeah. But then last year, I mean, I've talked about it before.
42:35He had a crazy number of end zone targets.
42:38He ran an absurd amount of routes. I mean, Rich Rebar sent a tweet out today basically saying that Trey McBride last
42:45year ran the equivalent of 22 games worth of routes at tight end.
42:49Like it was like, like McBride is not going to see the same kind of usage year over year.
42:55Marvin Harrison Jr. Is healthy. Right. So I think that this trend in particular is bad for McBride.
43:01It makes Brock Bowers, who's in the middle bucket, a little bit more volatile.
43:05And then the other two like elite tight ends this year are Tyler Warren and Colson Loveland.
43:11And a lot of this stuff doesn't apply as heavily to year two guys.
43:15We just haven't seen many year one and year two guys in the top six at tight end in general.
43:22I think we've only had five since 2014, one rookie being Kyle Pitts.
43:26But of those guys, they haven't performed very well, but it's a small sample.
43:30And both those guys were under that 0.4 mark last year per game.
43:34So this is a trend that I'm a little bit concerned about regarding Trey McBride.
43:39Okay. Okay. And we did have in the comments, it's Borker.
43:43Yeah. Borker. Yeah. That's what I've been saying. Yeah.
43:46And Ren said, I sent you guys a pronunciation guide.
43:49Yeah, he did. He had. And I'm like, I'm like, I've said it so many times before in the show.
43:55Like I'm very big on the pronunciation stuff with these players, but I refuse to care at all about Nate Borker.
44:02Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We don't, we don't care about blocking tight ends or, you know, anyone who's not going to be relevant to our, any of our teams.
44:11They're dead to us for right now. Well, yeah.
44:14Just wait till people clip this in two years and he's a tight end three in fantasy football.
44:20That's kind of what happened with Gunnar Hill, many people are saying.
44:24All right. So let's get on to the main event.
44:27All right. Again, this is Market Score Week. If you haven't already after this episode, go back and listen to Market Score
44:342.0, the episode that dropped yesterday on the podcast feed where JJ is talking about.
44:39Where JJ is talking about basically revamping the market score.
44:42He and Brandon revamping the market score. And you just put on the sheet for the audio listeners.
44:48This is for fun. This is a fun exercise, guys.
44:51Although Brandon and I are working through some ideas of how we can get projections from this because we essentially have projections
44:58via comps for players based on Market Score, which is very, very cool.
45:02But we're trying to figure out the best way to sort of communicate some of those ideas.
45:07But what I'm doing here on today's show with the main event is I'm looking at players here in 2026.
45:14And I looked at players who had similarity scores in the past 80 or higher.
45:19So they were like 80% matches or higher. And this is all based off of career year.
45:24That gets the lowest amount of weight. Positional ADP.
45:27So where they're drafted within their position. Overall ADP.
45:30And then obviously market score. Right? So market score being something that feeds off of ADP in general.
45:36You should listen to the episode that dropped yesterday to get a better idea of that.
45:41But anyway, this is for fun. I'm looking at the top outcome among players who had a comp that had an AD similarity score or higher.
45:49So a fairly decent comp. And then of those fairly decent comps, here are the high end ones.
45:55And I picked out 10 that were just interesting to me.
45:58That's really what this is. Okay. Fun. It's fun.
46:01We're doing this for fun, guys. Okay. The first one's Ashton Gentry.
46:05I mentioned on the show that he is the RB4 by according to market score right now.
46:11He is ahead of Jonathan Taylor in market score.
46:13Market score really likes Gentry. You know, he's about 10th overall.
46:17But his number one ceiling comp is Christian McCaffrey in 2018, which was also his second year where he was going RB10, Gentry RB5 right now.
46:25But he was going 13th overall, Gentry going 10th overall.
46:28And their market scores are very comparable. 80.4 for Gentry, 79.5 for Christian McCaffrey.
46:33And that season, Christian McCaffrey scored 25.4 PPR points per game.
46:36I don't think Gentry is as prolific. This is an important caveat here is that these are not stylistic comps at all.
46:44Like you could get, you know, one of them is very obviously not a stylistic comp, but you could get a mobile
46:51quarterback that we're looking at and he gets a pocket passer comp.
46:54This is just based on those four factors of positional ADP, overall ADP, a career year and market score.
47:01Right. So and also with the career year stuff, when you get to like year seven, year eight, it kind of lumps
47:08in year seven to like year 15 is like the same thing.
47:11They're just they're deep veterans at that point. But Ashton Gentry, Christian McCaffrey, 2018.
47:16That's the first comp. Okay. Next. This is interesting because we've had some talk about this player.
47:21It's Garrett Wilson and his comp is Cooper Cup from 2021.
47:25Yeah, no big deal. Just Cooper Cup when he scored 24.3 PPR points per game.
47:30Yeah. I mean, look, I've, I have not been super high on Garrett Wilson because of situation, but I probably should be a little bit higher.
47:38And I'm looking at his market score right now and it's, it's dead even at zero.
47:43Okay. So like, like he's, he's basically in terms of above or below expectations, it's 55.9 is what his market score is,
47:50which is what we would expect for a player that's going at his overall ADP at wide receiver.
47:56So Garrett, what, what it's basically saying is that like Garrett Wilson should be a three, four turn player, right?
48:02The thing is though, his high end comp 80, 80 plus similarity scores, Cooper Cup in 2021, when he scored 24.3 PPR
48:09points per game, both year five guys, fairly comparable market score, only about a point or two away, very comparable overall wide
48:16receiver pick and fairly close seven points apart or seven spots apart in overall ADP.
48:21It's, it's making me think a little bit differently about Garrett Wilson.
48:25I'm still more on the fade side than the target side, but it is making me feel a little bit different about him.
48:32Okay. Okay. We have a next chase Brown and DeMarco Murray from 2014 with the Dallas Cowboys.
48:38This is a really close comp, very, very close comp because you look at their overall ADP.
48:43It's only one spot apart. Their positional ADP one spot apart.
48:47Their market score is 0.7 away from one another.
48:50And they're both in year four. And DeMarco Murray that year scored 22 fantasy points per game, PPR points per game.
48:56So I think this is another good chase. Brown generally has pretty good comps, uh, market scores views him favorably.
49:03So it's just another reason why I'm, I've been buying into chase Brown and best ball so far.
49:09All right. Next we have Justin Herbert and Tom Brady from 2015.
49:13Yeah. So this is what I'm saying. So like that's Tom Brady's 16th NFL season, which is also crazy because it was
49:202015 and seems like he just played a long time ago.
49:23Yeah. Um, but yeah, I mean like this is that that year, Tom Brady scored almost 23 points per game.
49:29Uh, QB eight for Justin Herbert this year. Tom Brady was QB six overall ADP, not as tight.
49:35This wasn't as close of a similarity score as some of the others, but I wanted to throw a couple of quarterbacks
49:42in their market score, 51.3 versus 50.7 right now from a market score standpoint, I can pull it up, but right now
49:49from a market score standpoint, Justin Herbert looks pretty favorable.
49:53He's at a 51.3 market score at quarterback. If you were to sort that, uh, four passers this year, he's, he's a top 10 quarterback.
50:01So, uh, the market score likes Justin Herbert, uh, a decent enough, uh, you know, in general and, uh, you know, having
50:08that comp of Tom Brady can't hurt. Yeah. That's also when I think Gronk went off, uh, as well, but you should
50:15know that this could happen because if you hear, if you've, if you've heard Mike McDaniels telling everybody that they're going to
50:22be hall of fame players, that they remind him of hall of fame players.
50:26I love the chart. I don't care how chalky it is.
50:30Yeah. I'm all in on the chargers this year.
50:33I don't care how chalky it is. So the Mario and Hampton reminds him of a trail Davis.
50:38Yeah. It's so funny, you know, uh, and that QJ could be like the, you know, one of the best, uh, you know, inside the five wide receivers.
50:47He's just, he's pumping them up and I'm, and I'm here for it.
50:52So why not have a ceiling comp for, for Herbert to, uh, to Tom Brady.
50:56For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters.
51:00Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start.
51:03Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks.
51:12If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required.
51:16Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.
51:24Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur.
51:30Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine.
51:37Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today.
51:40Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. Hey, it's Erin Andrews from Calm Down with Erin and Krissa.
51:46I don't know about your house, but at my house, everybody's online.
51:50Streaming, gaming, shopping, Zoom calls, you name it. That's why having fast, reliable internet that can keep up really matters and why
51:57you need Optimum's famously fast fiber-powered internet. It blows flaky 5G home internet out of the water.
52:02It's fast and reliable and doesn't slow down when everybody's online, which, let's be honest, is all the time.
52:08Right now, they have a deal that's tough to beat, just $25 a month for five years.
52:14So don't wait. Call 866-9-OPTIMUM. Visit Optimum.com or stop by your local Optimum store today.
52:18Famously fast fiber-powered internet for $25 a month for five years.
52:22That's a no-brainer. Terms apply. See Optimum.com for details.
52:25This one was the one I found interesting. The cover boy, Zay Flowers, comped to DeAndre Hopkins in 2017.
52:31All right. So I wasn't as in on Zay last year.
52:34He really boosted his numbers in a worthless fantasy football week, to be clear.
52:39He was not very usable from a ceiling perspective for a lot of the year.
52:44And then towards the end, especially I think it was week 18 when he had a crazy, crazy week.
52:50And then everyone's like, he was a top 10 wide.
52:53It's like, okay, let's be realistic about what was usable.
52:56Week 16, he did knock me out of best ball championship.
53:00Yeah, I mean, he was better. Obviously, when Lamar got hurt and stuff.
53:04But even when Lamar was healthy, there weren't like...
53:07It was Zay Flowers as a floor play rather than a ceiling play for the most part.
53:12There were some ceiling games. So I wasn't that into Zay last year.
53:16This year, the more I've researched, the more I've written in the draft guide, the more I look at market score, the
53:23more I think Zay Flowers is one of the best picks you can make at wide receiver.
53:29So you get DeAndre Hopkins 2017 as his top ceiling comp, which is an 80 similarity score or better.
53:35But just outside that is Jackson Smith and Jigbus 2025 for Zay Flowers.
53:39There's so many good comps. And so many of the trends that I look for in this range of the draft, Zay Flowers checks that box.
53:47So I'll be moving him up my rankings. I honestly think I'm to the point where he probably deserves to be more
53:54in that Devontae Smith, Chris Alave tier than the Luther Burden, Ladd McConkie, Jalen Waddle, Terry McLaurin type tier.
54:01I think there's a very real chance with a new...
54:04The biggest wild card is new offensive environment. But I think that new offensive environment might be a good thing for Zay.
54:11So yeah, I mean, the DeAndre Hopkins comp very much aligns overall ADP and NFL year, all that kind of stuff.
54:18And his PPR points per game that year, DeAndre Hopkins was 20.7.
54:21I don't know if we get that high with Zay because he hasn't been that much of a red zone threat.
54:28But if the switch in offensive coordinator... Part of the reason is that he just has not been deployed in the red zone at all.
54:36And if that changes in any way, there's definitely a ceiling there for Flowers.
54:41So I'm in on Zay this year. I think he's a good pick.
54:45And I got to move him up my rankings.
54:48Yeah. And we've talked about the other offices. But as far as this new offense, I think there was Lamar Jackson where
54:55he's talking about how the offense is blowing his mind.
54:58Lamar, it might be my second highest on quarterback right now.
55:01Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, I'll say this. Market score has...
55:05I mean, it has Jalen Hurts right ahead of Lamar.
55:08So Lamar's QB3 technically. But yes, I have Lamar QB2.
55:11Zay Flowers is at wide receiver 11 right now.
55:14Yeah. He's right after Drake London, who's after George Pickett.
55:17Basically, that range goes from a market score perspective.
55:20Nico Collins, AJ Brown, George Pickens, Drake London, Zay Flowers.
55:24And then it's Chris Alave, Devante Smith, T-Mac, Emeka Buka, T-Higgins, right?
55:27So a little spoiler alert for those of you who are getting the draft guide.
55:32Because in the draft guide, we are going to list market scores and update that weekly based on ADP because their scores will change.
55:40But Zay Flowers, man, it's just a lot of the things are coming together from a numbers-driven perspective.
55:46And I think he's a really good player, too.
55:49He's always been a really good player per route run.
55:52I even noted that last year in the guide.
55:55It's just that the situation hasn't really been there for him.
55:58But what if the situation is there for him this year?
56:02Yeah. Should be fun. All right. Lad McConkie. We just talked about this Chargers team.
56:06Comp to Chris Godwin in 2019. Yeah, I think Lad...
56:10So if you look at his comps, his market score comps, they're very, very volatile.
56:14Which is not surprising because he had a pretty iffy 2025.
56:18When you look at first downs per outrun or yards per outrun, whatever the case may be.
56:23Now, market score has him as a pretty neutral player.
56:27So he's going where he probably should be going.
56:30And his top comp is Chris Godwin's 2019, where he scored almost 20 PPR points per game.
56:35It was Chris Godwin's best career season, if I recall correctly.
56:39So it's good news for Lad that he has that.
56:42But there are... I talk about this in the mailbag that's going to come out on Friday.
56:47There are still some concerning parts of Lad's profile, which is another reason why it's just easier to elevate Zay Flowers above
56:54him and just draft Zay and not have to worry about the volatility as much.
56:59Because it's not like the Ravens offense is likely to be really, really bad when Lamar Jackson's their quarterback.
57:05Now, I do like the Chargers offense more, but there's a little bit more that we're working against with Lad versus Zay.
57:12This next one made me laugh or chuckle. Brock Bowers, his comp, Trey McBride in 2025.
57:17Yeah, they both have perfect market scores of 100.
57:20Bowers the tight end one, McBride the tight end two last year.
57:24McBride went a little bit later than where Bowers is going right now.
57:28But this is a situation where I do... I said this on the market score show.
57:33Market score is obsessed with Brock Bowers. He thinks that he should be firmly a first-round pick.
57:39Now, I'm not going to go that far because there's opportunity cost-related things.
57:43Market scores looking at these players, it does use wide receiver expected points via ADP and running back, all that kind of stuff.
57:50So market scores can change based on their teammate ADPs as well.
57:54But with that being said, it's not working in conjunction necessarily with the other positions to show you where these players should go overall.
58:02Like, it's not going to recognize as well that Brock Bowers is a tight end and most leagues don't value tight ends very highly, etc., etc.
58:10It's looking at historical ADP and where these tight ends have generally gone.
58:14And this is basically telling me, the Brock Bowers stuff, that we're in old-school Gronk territory.
58:19Travis Kelsey territory. You know what I mean? This is what we should be expecting with Brock Bowers this year is that
58:26there's a very real chance that he gives us that really, truly elite tight end season.
58:32And look, Trey McBride last year was that. He scored almost 19 PPR points per game.
58:37Okay, this next one, Devon Achan versus or is comped with Todd Gurley in 2017.
58:42The really interesting part about Achan and market score is that he doesn't grade that poorly.
58:47I think right now I'm looking. He's the RB9 in market score.
58:51So that's fine. That's about where he is, where he's going, right?
58:54Because he's the RB9 in positional ADP. The problem is that when you really uncover things and you look, the comps for Achan are scary.
59:02Like there's just a lot of low-end outcomes that, you know, if you were to look at the point per game projections,
59:09if you take the top 10 comps and you weigh similarity scores versus the points per game of those players scored, and
59:16you kind of project a point per game output for these players, which is what I was talking about, Brandon and I are working on right now.
59:25Now, Devon Achan's point per game projection is worst among top 12 running backs right now.
59:30So, you know, this comp is good. Todd Gurley in 2017 scored 26 PPR points per game.
59:36And so, you know, that's obviously a really good outcome for him.
59:40And there's a lot of alignment there with overall ADP, their career year and market score.
59:45But at the same time, I do think that Achan is a very, very volatile asset where there is a low floor,
59:52unfortunately, despite him being a very, very talented player.
59:55All right. Next on the list, we have Jackson Dart and his comp is to Lamar Jackson in 2019.
60:01Yeah, only Lamar Jackson's MVP season, his second year in the league where he broke fantasy football and scored 28 points per game.
60:08Look, I mean, undeniably, the marks that we're looking at here for comps are very similar.
60:13Very similar overall ADP, QB11 versus QB12. QB12 market scores are about a point apart and they're both year two guys.
60:20You have to keep in mind that this is an objective way to measure things.
60:25Market score is. And it looks at Jackson Dart and what he did last year as a rusher.
60:30And it says, wow, this was actually pretty impressive, which it was pretty impressive.
60:35But it doesn't necessarily know that he's not Lamar Jackson, you know, from a athleticism standpoint and consistency standpoint and what we should expect from a rushing perspective.
60:44What this comp tells me is that Jackson Dart, I think, is a really high upside pick.
60:49And in a regular season long league, that should go a long way.
60:54Like that's that's the kind of quarterback that you should be going after because you can make up for the mistake.
61:00It's not as attractive in best ball because he's not easy to stack either right now.
61:05You know, it's like he's not as attractive in best ball, in my opinion, whereas especially because you can gobble up three
61:12quarterbacks and like, you know, have spiked weeks in the right at the right time and such.
61:18But I do think in a regular season long lead, Jackson Dart is going to make a lot of sense.
61:24We can make the downside case very easily, but I don't really care about downside when it comes to my quarterback when I'm drafting him relatively late.
61:33So it's a crazy comp. Totally understand that. Not stylistic, but it is showing you that there's a pretty high ceiling there with Dart.
61:41Yeah. And I'll push back a little bit and say, you know, he has dropped a little bit in on DraftKings.
61:47Yeah, I'm still drafting. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I think from where he is, because people are comparing him, you know, to
61:54that Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jaden Daniels tier and saying, you know, how much difference really are they with that with that drop?
62:02All right. Next we have, and I think it's the last one, Luther Burden and Keenan Allen from 2015.
62:08So as Brandon's newsletter today said, Luther Burden has some scary, like there are definitely some scary comps for Luther Burden, but
62:15we're only looking at ceiling comps here. And Keenan Allen was the one who stood out most.
62:20I wanted to throw that in here just because I think Burden is one of the more polarizing players this season.
62:27Market score is just not going to love players who are in these offenses that have multiple early round pass catchers, just
62:34because it's looking at more of like a median, more of a projection than anything else.
62:39And obviously if Roma Dunze is being drafted where he's being drafted, if Colson Loveland's being drafted where he's being drafted, then
62:46that's, that tells us that there's pretty decent competition for Burden.
62:50And so this is where I do think comps and looking at comps can be helpful because you can see, oh wait,
62:57what if there is a player that kind of emerges from, you know, those types of situations or what if there's a
63:04play, you know, are there players in the past that have been in this situation and done well?
63:10And for Luther Burden, the top comp was Keenan Allen in 2015, who scored 20 PPR points per game.
63:16I'm very much still in on Luther Burden. Uh, market score doesn't like him as much as I do, but I'm still
63:23drafting Luther Burden in that tier with like a T-Mac and a Mecca of Buka.
63:28All right. So just a reminder, immediately after this, you are going to be redirected to JJ's best ball stream.
63:34So, um, it might take a minute or two, but if you just keep the video open, it will, uh, go there
63:41automatically and you'll get to see JJ draft a team.
63:44You'll get to interact with them, talk with them much like this show.
63:48Those draft, those best ball drafts are also like interact interactive where we enjoy people that comment on the shows.
63:55So make sure you're doing that. And if you're haven't already, go ahead and just turn on notifications for our YouTube stream.
64:02With that being said, JJ, we have our membership.
64:05We have newsletter, we have the draft guide, even the prospect guide, uh, over there on lateround.com.
64:10And I know it's late, but if you want to get the all access tier, you get the prospect guide and the upcoming draft guide included in that.
64:19Uh, we also have promo code late round again, shout out to our sponsor draft Kings for sponsoring the show.
64:26Do you have anything else to add? No, gotta, gotta do this draft.
64:30Let's draft a good one. All right. Uh, appreciate everyone tuning in and for commenting and providing pronunciation guides.
64:36We appreciate you. We'll see you next time here in the late round fantasy football show.
64:41Peace. Granger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park, you're not managing one building.
64:46You're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners.
64:52Lights about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVAC on its last leg.
64:56If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind.
64:59Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering and 24 seven support.
65:03Call 1-800-GRANGER, click grainger.com or just stop by. Granger for the ones who get it done.
65:08When Kohler global design leader and luxurious kitchen and bath products asked me to be their ambassador for timeless, elegant, durable cast iron.
65:16I said, I'm in. Soon after I was in their Kohler, Wisconsin foundry, watching molten iron poured, enamel applied by hand and
65:23the beautiful finished pieces ready to ship. Since 1883, Kohler cast iron has been crafted by incredible artisans and seeing it firsthand
65:30gave me a whole new appreciation for their craftsmanship.
65:33Now I'm proud to lend my stamp of approval to my favorite Kohler cast iron products for their durability, beauty, and enduring style.
65:40Shop my curated picks at Kohler.com. As the Kohler cast iron ambassador, I say, long live cast iron.
65:46This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
