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0:22Rich, how was your 4th of July, man? It was great.
0:25We hung out by the pool, had some glizzies, watched some things blow up.
0:29It was as American as apple pie. JJ, what about you?
0:32Nice. Mine was great. Pretty similar. We went to the pool.
0:35I had this American flag-themed red, white, and blue outfit going.
0:39I had American flag swimsuit. I had this button-up American flag, red, white, and blue shirt going on.
0:44And then I was wearing a hat, a red, white, and blue hat.
0:48And as I was at the pool, I got a couple people commenting saying, man, I really like your hat.
0:53And it was red, white, and blue. But I thought about it, and I realized I was wearing a Quebec Nordiques hat.
1:00I was wearing a Canadian hat on the 4th of July.
1:03I'm JJ, and over the last couple of years, I've been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.
1:09And last season, things finally fell into place. I got 40th in the DraftKings Millie contest, taking home $20,000.
1:14Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still looking to learn more about this game.
1:19And I still want others to come on this ride with me.
1:23So even if you consider me a best ball bro, this could be your year.
1:27This could be the year that you officially become a best ball bro.
1:31This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for best ball, and we've got a can't-miss
1:37offer on their biggest best ball contest ever. $20 million in total prizes.
1:41It's draft one, get one. Draft your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each week, all season long.
1:48Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code LATEROUND.
1:52Enter a lineup in the $20 million best ball contest for $25 and get a bonus ticket for a second entry.
1:58Two shots at the title. Draft one, get one, only on DraftKings.
2:01The crown is yours. Welcome into another episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro.
2:05I'm JJ Zachary, and joined as always by Rich Ryan.
2:08Rich, what's going on, buddy? Doing good, buddy. You weren't far off.
2:12Canada Day is July 1st. And the only reason I know that is because my son was born on July 1st, and my brother lives in Ontario.
2:19So they thought it was hilarious that I had a child on Canada Day.
2:23Yeah. Canada feeling just as bad as we are about the World Cup result.
2:27I told my wife this morning, I was like, because she fell asleep, didn't end up watching the game, which, I mean, smart decision in the end.
2:35But I was like, yeah, that was the worst soccer game that I've ever watched.
2:40And I've watched a dozen of them. I've watched so many soccer games at this point.
2:44Man, that was brutal. It's just emblematic of just the difference in class between the American players and players abroad, guys that
2:51have been in European academies and systems. And man, they really clout.
2:54As soon as they didn't start Kevin De Bruyne, it kind of said everything that they thought about us as a soccer nation.
3:01Yeah. Yeah. Rough, rough, rough night for Americans, you know, but it's nice that we can all commiserate together.
3:06Like you're used to commiserating only with other Jets fans.
3:09Right. And that's all you can do is, is, is go to that fan.
3:13I mean, as a, as a born and raised Yinzer, you know, it hasn't been that, that long.
3:18Not, not quite as long as you've been, you've been dealing with the, the L's.
3:23But anyway, we're gonna talk a little best ball today.
3:25I don't really have that much from a game theory, what I'm seeing perspective right now.
3:30I've still kind of been approaching drafts with the mentality of, of mixing things up from a structural perspective.
3:36Like I don't want to only go running back, running back, and then have these teams that are structured the exact same
3:42way, because then I'm not getting the right exposure for certain players and such.
3:46But I also think that like, we shouldn't assume that there's only one optimal way to draft these things.
3:51I think that it could very easily be a year where we get better wide receiver production, you know, especially at the top.
3:58Or, you know, it could be a year where we get, you know, some of these like middle round running backs who have good pass catching profiles.
4:06Like, I don't want to just dismiss them because I'm going after quarterbacks so frequently.
4:10So I've really been mixing up, mixing it up quite a bit.
4:14If you guys want to check out a draft that I actually did today, this is on Tuesday, we're recording this.
4:20I ended up liking it. Did you, did you watch that by chance?
4:23I got about halfway through. Honestly, I got to say my favorite part of the draft, and it's something I've, I've wanted
4:30to do this entire summer, but I've not had the chance is the dude that went McBride Bowers week 17 matchup.
4:36I think that is a very fun galaxy brain tight end in the flex.
4:40Like, that's the kind of thing that I wish I could make that click, but it just never, I never get the chance to.
4:47I think that, that it's, it's one of those things that like, I wouldn't do consistently, but I would do.
4:53No, no, no, no, no. I think I said it on the stream.
4:56Like I'll try to do that maybe two or three times in, in you know, my, my one 50 that I'm doing
5:03just to have that exposure to those guys. Cause obviously, like you said, they play each other week 17.
5:08You also, you know, in those situations, like I'm not the kind of drafter that believes in sort of cannibalizing the one position like that.
5:15And sort of like take, like, just like holding onto the tight end advantage in that way, you know, you could make
5:22the argument that in doing so that means that other people in your league are then kind of chasing that position, which I get.
5:29And I understand the, the issue that I run into with that is that you're almost doing some other teams more of
5:35a favor because if they're the team that ends up getting, you know, Colson Loveland or Tyler Warren, especially past ADP or something, then, then they're sitting pretty.
5:43They're sitting fine because they can still match that tight end production to a degree.
5:47And so, you know, you're, you're almost like, it's, it's like the people who hoard quarterbacks, you know, and want to go
5:54that route because I think quarterback is a little bit easier to wrap your head around, but they hoard quarterbacks and they
6:00say, Oh, well, I'm going to like destroy this position.
6:03Sure. You probably will. And then other people are not going to have very good quarterback rooms.
6:08And therefore, you know, they're not, they're going to have a harder time advancing out of, out of their pod.
6:14And I just think it's just not an optimal way to do things just because once you, if you were to get
6:20out of the pod, first off, you're not necessarily set up to be optimal, you know, moving forward, you know, in, in
6:26playoff weeks, because you have really weak running backs and wide receivers.
6:30And that's very important to be good at. And I think people kind of galaxy brain that side too much.
6:36It's, it's more defensible in my opinion at tight end, because you can flex the tight end, right?
6:41Where quarterback, you know, this is, this is the argument too, against Josh Allen early in best ball in the third round
6:47in best ball is that, you know, I've heard, I've seen the argument of, well, Josh Allen has the highest ceiling in
6:54fantasy football on a week to week basis. And what if he's the guy that you need in week 15, 16 and 17?
7:00Sure. You could definitely make that argument, but I would argue very strongly and very easily that there are late round quarterbacks
7:07who can match Josh Allen's weekly upside in a given we see it all the time.
7:11I mean, the, the team that I got 40th last year in the, in the Millie had Brock Purdy in it.
7:17And he was like, what did he score? Like 40 to 45 points in the, in the championship, you know?
7:23And so I don't think that it's as applicable to the quarterback position as it would be at tight end where, yeah,
7:29like Brock Bowers and, and Trey McBride, their weekly ceiling from a probability driven, of course, like a Kyle Pitts game can
7:36happen or, you know, you'll see a randomly round tight end, but from, from just strictly like a probability driven perspective, it's
7:42much more predictable that it would happen with one of the elite tight ends as opposed to one of the late round
7:48tight ends and that, that dichotomy with the quarterback position.
7:51So you said you liked the draft after you were in the 11 spot after last night, the night prior, not liking
7:58your draft out of the 11 spot. So, so what was the difference here?
8:02Why'd you like this draft so much? Yeah. I like this one.
8:05I ended up getting a Minnesota stack. So I got Justin Jefferson at the one 11, which was a nice little fall, little like a slight fall.
8:13You know, I'll usually get like one Oh nine, one 10.
8:16So I got Justin Jefferson there. The problem in the one 11 spot in the one 12 is that you have to
8:22make a decision as to which running back you're going to take.
8:26If you do go wide receiver first, or, you know, you could maybe CD lamb or Justin Jefferson falls, but if they
8:32don't, then, you know, I'm not really taking Drake London in that area.
8:36I see Brock Bowers fall too often into the more later parts of the second round to really go Bowers.
8:42So the decision really comes down to taking a running back and I'm trying to, you know, I was really heavy on
8:48chase Brown earlier in, in, uh, in May. And so I have a decent amount of chase Brown.
8:53I'm not just clicking the same guys over and over again.
8:56So I ended up taking Amari and Hampton. And then with taking Amari and Hampton, the nice part is a lot of
9:03McConkie often finds himself in that three, four turn area.
9:06So I got lad. So I started that, that charger stack a little bit.
9:10And then I got Bayshall Tootin and Parker Washington as a Jag stack.
9:13And then I realized very quickly that they have the same by as the chargers.
9:18So I couldn't double tap Justin Herbert with Trevor Lawrence, which T law almost made it back to me again in the
9:24ninth round, which would have been crazy. Cause that's a huge value.
9:28It was only two picks away, but I got Justin Herbert.
9:31And then Jalen Warren also fell to the late seventh.
9:34So the team was like looking good from just like a CLV, you know, ADP value perspective.
9:39And then I ended up getting Kyler, which was really nice to get that Minnesota stack.
9:43And then the rest of the draft, I think kind of fell into place.
9:47Like it was, it was a good, strong structural draft.
9:50The one that I did last night from the 11 spot.
9:53It was just one of those drafts were like one or two picks away from so many guys that would have made it great.
10:00And then I, I kind of had to force a green Bay stack.
10:04And I got Matthew golden, who I'm not like super, super high on.
10:08I'm not low on necessarily at his price, but I'm definitely not high on.
10:12He's a really bad market score too. Um, so it was just that kind of thing where, where, you know, it fell
10:18into place a little bit more than what I saw today.
10:21And, and really like today's draft, like getting some of these values, cause there were some really weird things going on in
10:28the front half of the draft, like really weird stuff.
10:31Like I, the, the, the two, three turn was Josh Allen Malik neighbors.
10:34Right. And so I hated that I wasn't on that side of the board.
10:38Cause usually when you're on that side of the board, the side of the board where like weird things are happening, that's when you can immediately.
10:46Right. Right. You don't get, like the wave of value.
10:49You get like the immediate. Exactly. So like, I knew that as guys would fall, cause guys were going to fall if
10:55Malik neighbors and Josh Allen were going a little bit earlier, but I wasn't going to benefit from that probably.
11:01Cause I would hit that wall. But I think the biggest value was probably Jalen Warren.
11:05He usually goes in that like six, seven area.
11:08I got him in the seven, eight area, which, which was really nice.
11:12And like I said, I almost got Trevor Lawrence even later, but yeah, check out that, that draft, you know, see what I did.
11:19I think that from like a structural perspective, it's what I tried to do, you know, where, I wasn't locked into an RB RB start.
11:26Um, I wasn't locked into any sort of particular strategy.
11:29It just kind of fell into place. And I was thinking, I do think in the 11 spot, it's a lot easier
11:35to think one pick ahead than, than in other spots, just because you can, you can look at what the one 12
11:42is doing and know that like in the one 12, in this case took Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
11:47Right. So that like, I'm like, Oh, well then I can, I could get Jalen Warren in this spot where I was going to get Justin Herbert.
11:55Because if this team that drafted Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow gets Justin Herbert, that's just a bad beat.
12:00You know, that's just, that's just not something that I'm going to predict or like think that, uh, that someone's going to be that irrational.
12:07And they didn't, you know, so I was able to push Justin Herbert, a couple of picks while still getting a running
12:14back, a player in that upper tier. So, uh, I think that is the advantage usually of like the 10, 11, but
12:20overall, um, I'm not like in love with, with that, you know, draft slot in general.
12:25I don't know. I think, what do you think the worst draft slot is?
12:29Do you have, do you have any take on that?
12:32Like maybe the one 10, one Oh nine. Yeah.
12:34I do think towards the end of the first round there is, is a little bit worse because you don't get the
12:41benefit of picking one of the elite players right off of the top.
12:44Right. And this is the pocket we talked about last year.
12:48What that beginning of the second round where it's just kind of like very flat until the third round.
12:53And you're just, you're making a bet that isn't very certain.
12:56Right. So at least you get to, you can randomize a lot, right?
13:00You can get a lot of exposure to a lot of different players at the start of the second round, but it
13:06doesn't feel like whenever you make that bet, it doesn't feel like the best bet.
13:11You know, well, that's because that's because that same tier of players falling to the middle and late second round, you know?
13:17And so you're not getting like a, a tier up with a lot of those guys.
13:22And if you're in like the one Oh three, you know, obviously one Oh one one Oh two, you get one of
13:28the running backs, but even in those spots, you know, you, you can get falling values into the two Oh two or two Oh two 11 range.
13:36Let's say, and you might get like a Brock Bowers or Derek Henry all the way down there at times.
13:42And then in the third round, you might still be able to get like Nico Collins, you know, like there's still, so
13:48like there's a, and then in the fourth round in that area, you could get a falling value out of the great
13:54wide receiver tier and double tap there. So like, to me, there's, there's, if you're in the one Oh two, there are
14:01magical, magical drafts that can happen in my opinion, from like a tiering standpoint and projection standpoint.
14:06But then it's a lot safer for those things that happen in like the, you know, one Oh four to one Oh five range.
14:12And then once you get past, you know, like I like Amin Ross St.
14:16Brown a lot. So I think that that's fine.
14:19If, if you want to say one Oh eight or whatever, even one Oh seven, but you know, once you get in
14:25that like one Oh nine to one 11, one 12 range, what's the mistake someone before you can make that you can capitalize on?
14:32Like, are we, are we pumping our fists when Jonathan Taylor falls to us?
14:36Like, no, you're, you're really hoping. I think, I think the big thing is that you're hoping for a Justin Jefferson or
14:43CD lamb to fall because that's the one way to really differentiate your build, right?
14:47Because otherwise you're just going running back, running back.
14:50And that's what most people are doing from that area of the draft.
14:53And so, you know, you're not, you're not able to differentiate as easy, but if you're in like the one Oh nine
15:00and you get Justin Jefferson, then CD lamb falls to the, to the, you know, middle parts of the second or your second round pick.
15:07That's where, Oh, now I have a different type of build.
15:10So I'm just going to naturally have different combinations than someone else would have.
15:14All right. Let's get some risers and fallers. Let's do it.
15:17Let's look at it. Let's start with Rashid Shaheed exiting the offensive coordinator from Seattle.
15:22So a new look offense this year up in the Pacific Northwest, but people are starting to latch on to Shaheed.
15:28Yeah. Look, I mean, I think that Shaheed's a really good best ball pick right now.
15:32And I I've I'm, I'm ahead of them in my rankings versus the market at the moment.
15:37He was almost, he's not going to be a good pick.
15:40He's not going to be a late round dart throw in the guide, but he's so close.
15:45Like he's one of those players that I could easily envision myself writing him up, you know, in future weeks after the draft guide releases.
15:53And I'm, cause I do update the guide every week.
15:55You know, if you look at his peripherals and his usage last year after the trade, not fantastic, but I also think
16:02that we need to be realistic about what happened, you know, like he was traded mid season.
16:07He's in a new offense. Even, even if he was familiar with the offense, he's still in a new offense.
16:12I mean, it's a different kind of situation. I think Seattle, and we even saw it in the playbook.
16:18Like Seattle added Shaheed, not just because Torrey Horton was banged up and they didn't want to necessarily rely on him in that role, but special teams.
16:26And that was a huge part. Like he played a huge role on their Superbowl run.
16:30Right. So like it was a massively favorable move that Seattle made to get Shaheed.
16:35But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that not only has Shaheed had like, not only has he had like crazy
16:41yards per route run seasons historically, but we saw a nice shift also in Chris Alave's target share after Rashid Shaheed left,
16:47which means Shaheed was taking targets away. And, you know, in a way from one of the better wide receivers in the game and Chris Alave.
16:55And so, you know, you bring all that together.
16:58I also have become more bullish on the Seahawks throwing the ball a little bit more this year, because we know statistically
17:04that defenses tend to regress year over year. It's essentially going to be very hard for Seattle to be as not that they have a bad defense.
17:12It's hard for them to be as good as they were last year defensively.
17:16And so you bring all that together and you're like, yeah, Shaheed in a range of the draft that just kind of sucks in general.
17:23Why not throw that dart and go after him?
17:26Yeah. Seattle best defense across the board. You look at any EPA DVO a metric.
17:30I don't know if you heard that, but must have hit a goal in the World Cup game.
17:35But yeah, even if they dip down to like a top five, top seven defense that increases the number of opportunities for
17:41the offense and situations where they just need to score more.
17:45Right. So where a team that JSN is going off the board, obviously in the first round, Jaren Price in the sixth
17:51and then no Seahawk goes off the board until Darnold in the 12th.
17:55Like again, who's going to score? Who's going to gain yards?
17:58Like somebody has to do something. You would think you would think switching to running back Jordan Mason moving up in drafts right now.
18:05So there was a report that came out this week about how Jordan Mason is essentially going to be like, like he's,
18:11he's ahead of Aaron Jones, let's say in the, you know, from a depth chart perspective.
18:16The thing that I caution people with every year is that fantasy football is a different game in the way that we're
18:22scoring things versus what beat reporters will generally report.
18:25They focus a lot on ground game work and not the stuff that we necessarily care about, which is the receiving work.
18:31Like we, we, we are going to weigh receive.
18:34I talk, I mean, Brandon Gadula brought this up on the show that we did yesterday, but running back target is like
18:40two, two and a half times as valuable as a running back attempt.
18:44Right. And, and, and, and fantasy football. And so a B reporter is not thinking that way, but regardless, there is some
18:50steam behind Jordan Mason in that backfield. And I got to say, rich as someone who faded Mason hard last year, you
18:56know, he was a player to avoid. I did not, I was not into Jordan Mason.
19:01I have never been into Jordan Mason because he's not a pass catcher, but I think at his ADP, I mean, I've
19:07drafted, I drafted him today on my, on that, on that Minnesota stack team that I, that I had.
19:13And the reason for that is this is one of those profiles that oddly is better in best ball, despite him not being a pass catching back.
19:21And the reason for that is I think there's going to be some production.
19:25It's like Chris Rodriguez. I think there's going to be some production there for those guys.
19:29I just don't know if the ceiling case is going to be insane because we haven't seen them be pass catchers, but
19:36I don't want the, the, the way that I view season long to sort of like overshadow.
19:41So how we should be building best ball rosters, which is get guaranteed points in the later rounds.
19:46Like you, you want those guaranteed points, even if it's not necessarily, especially in a full PPR platform, like draft Kings, even
19:52if it's not necessarily a, you know, 15 point throughout the season outcome for Jordan Mason, which I would be shocked by
19:58if he's a 12 point per game player, which I think is possible in this environment with Kyler Murray and him being a goal lineback.
20:06And if you look at that backfield in general, if we're being objective, Aaron Jones is older.
20:11Okay. I love Aaron Jones. And I, at the beginning of the off season, you know, I was way higher when I
20:17first did my, my first iteration, my redraft rankings.
20:20I had a big gap between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, but the more that I've thought about it, the more I'm
20:26like, all right, Aaron Jones is not, Aaron Jones is not young anymore.
20:30Right. He's definitely on the wrong side of the age curve.
20:33And then they draft them on Claiborne, who is a smaller, you know, it was like in the one eighties from a
20:39weight perspective, speedy back who catches Pat who can catch passes out of the backfield, which is more of an Aaron Jones
20:45duplicate as opposed to a Jordan Mason one. And so my thought process here is that I think Mason could walk away
20:52from the season with 200 rush attempts, realistically, just given the way that this backfield currently sits.
20:57So do I think his ceiling is like crazy?
20:59No, but there are definitely builds like the one that I had today where Jordan Mason gives me a nice floor when I, when I needed that floor.
21:07And so I think where he goes and like the one 25, one 30 range, like I'm totally fine with taking him there.
21:14Remember last year he was going like round seven.
21:17Like it's a completely different math equation that we're doing here for Jordan Mason.
21:21So I'm now in on Mason. There's a chance that he ends up as a player to target, even though in, in
21:27the, in the draft guide, because of all the reasons I just talked about.
21:31And there are some instances, I'm not saying that this is the way that I generally draft, but if you're in a
21:37deep league, you know, if you're in a league that has a lot of starting lineup spots and you just need some
21:44production, I think Jordan Mason can be okay in those, in those situations.
21:48So the gap is narrowing between him and Jones right now.
21:51There are eight spots in ADP between Jones and Jordan Mason, Mason up three spots, Aaron Jones down half a spot week over week.
21:58Are there any scenarios with which you would click Mason over Aaron Jones just like to randomize or are you clicking Jones
22:04pretty much over Mason in these spots? I don't have a strong opinion.
22:08I think that I'm just playing the ADP game, right?
22:11Like, like when one of them goes off the board, I will click the other one within the next pick.
22:16If I need to go running back in that scenario, you know, if I, if, if I have to choose one of
22:23them, I would say, I think Jones still probably has a higher ceiling because of the pass catching.
22:28And if, if, if my build kind of calls for that, I'd go that direction.
22:32Like it wouldn't shock me at all. Jordan Mason has 200 carries this year is what, what this really comes down to.
22:39You're buying that volume in, even on a full PPR platform.
22:42Chris Rodriguez is the same deal, except Rodriguez has a much bigger hill to climb and, and, and beat right with Bayshall
22:48Tootin where Jordan Mason doesn't have that at all.
22:51And yes, Jacksonville's offensive environment should be better than Minnesota's.
22:54But if you're relatively bullish on Kyler and what Minnesota's offense can do, then I think that you could just argue that
23:00this backfield in general is a little bit undervalued, you know, that, that we should probably be getting them a little bit more than we are.
23:07I mean, I don't know how everyone else is drafting.
23:10Maybe I should be getting them a little bit more than I am.
23:14And that's what I've been doing over the last two weeks or so, especially with Jordan Mason.
23:19All right, let's talk about some followers and a guy who just can't seem to put his phone down needs to be live at all times.
23:27Brandon, Iuke down a full round week over a week now into round 18.
23:31Okay. You had been getting some exposure on Iuke.
23:33Are you spooked by what is going on? Yeah, I haven't drafted Iuke in a week and a half of this for
23:40two weeks since we last talked basically. There was a tweet from my sports update, Ari, on Twitter that said 49ers wide
23:46receiver Brandon Iuke says he won't be filing for reinstatement because he doesn't want to do business with the team.
23:52Okay, under this scenario. And by the way, I don't think Iuke has an agent.
23:56Is that, is that right? That sounds right. Yeah.
23:59Yeah. That he's doing this without an agent. So, I mean, you guys can fact check me on that.
24:04Under this scenario, the 49ers can leave him on the left squad list.
24:08He would remain on the team, but wouldn't count against the roster or receive any pay.
24:12So, Brandon Iuke's out there on Instagram being like, I'm not going to file for reinstatement because then I have to do
24:19business with the 49ers and I hate the 49ers.
24:21But that's literally the only way he can play football.
24:24The very next Instagram post, he's like, all I want to do is get back on the field.
24:29It's like, bro, this is what you got to do to get back on the field.
24:34You got to sign, you got to talk to the team.
24:37You have to send one email to press at 49ers.com.
24:40Yeah. And then all the drama with Jaden Daniels that's gone on.
24:44I mean, part of me wants to believe that it was staged and it was like a way for something, you know,
24:50for the, for the commanders to get them cheaper, whatever the case may be.
24:54I'm hoping that that's the case, but I don't think, I don't know, man, the way that Iuke's been acting.
25:00I don't know if he could think that, I mean, just be that thoughtful about, you know, scheming something.
25:05So yeah, I mean, like it's a really crappy situation all around.
25:09I I'm avoiding Iuke right now because before I'm like, I think he's going to play.
25:13I just don't know where, where that's going to look like.
25:16I would honestly say there's a better chance than not at this point that he's going to play football ever again.
25:23Right. Like maybe it's probably like a 50, 50 shot, right?
25:26Like we've seen this happen before. Deontay Johnson was not as out in the open with all of this and like airing grievances and et cetera.
25:33And he's, I mean, look what happened with his career, right?
25:36He's not as good as Iuke, but he's not a bad wide receiver and he's out of the league essentially.
25:42So I'm, I'm very nervous about Iuke and so are my dynasty or my dynasty bags.
25:47My gosh, we're, we're a couple burned feet in a cryotherapy chamber away from, uh, the Antonio Brown trajectory.
25:52Honestly, screw hard knocks. You're just, just follow Brandon.
25:55Why? Why not? At least do like many episodes.
25:57His perhaps presumed future teammates bringing up Jalen, Jaden Daniels.
26:00Katron Allen is a, is another follower of the rookie running back out of Washington down another four spots this week in the 18th round.
26:08Yeah. I don't know if this is like, I think this, this could be the result of like the Rashad white, right?
26:14Ja'Cory Kroski merit wars that are going on right now where people are like kind of staking a claim on one of
26:20those guys, which by the way, I'm on team Rashad white between those two JCM just literally has never been a pass catcher.
26:27He was not a pass catcher in college. He was an older prospect.
26:31He was not a pass catcher last year. And in this kind of scenario, I'm going to lean towards the pass catcher more.
26:37This isn't a situation in my opinion. That's like Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones, because Rashad white's a lot younger than Aaron Jones.
26:44And I don't want ground game work to cloud my judgment about how good or bad a player is, which is what
26:50the argument always is with Rashad white. Cause there's a lot of variance and volatility with rushing numbers, but Katron Allen, I
26:56still think he's a decent dart because if you look at day three running back hits over the last decade or so, they all come from ambiguous backfields.
27:04Just one, it just depends on how you want to define that, but their, their RB one on their team is typically drafted after RB 30.
27:12And that's what we're seeing, you know, in Washington, it's an ambiguous backfield.
27:16So I think you can still throw that dart at Katron Allen, but again, he, this is another reason though, why, you
27:22know, if you go back to the Minnesota comparison, they, they each have day three rookies attached to their backfields.
27:28Katron Allen is more of the Ja'Cory Krosky merit replacement slash would dig into his role because Katron Allen's an early down
27:34bruiser and can steal some goal line work and, but he's not much of a pass catcher.
27:39Whereas the Mont Claiborne is more of the Aaron Jones archetype, right?
27:42And so that's why I was more attracted to a guy like Jordan Mason than I would be Ja'Cory Krosky merit.
27:49And so, yeah, I still think though, that that Katron Allen is an, is an interesting click given that he's going as late as he is.
27:56And then we'll move to Carolina where Chuba Hubbard is seeing a dip down two spots this week in a more consequential seventh round.
28:03Yeah. I've, I've gotten him in the eighth at times.
28:06Like that's when I'm that to me, that's the sweet spot for him.
28:10Like if you know that he's going to fall in drafts at times because of the Jonathan Brooks love, which look, I've drafted a lot of Jonathan Brooks.
28:18I'm in, we're all hoping we're all open. We're all open.
28:21Yeah. Right. But Chuba, I I've had some hero RB builds or even zero RB builds where, where I draft Chuba, because
28:27I do think that there's a floor with, with Hubbard, you know, generally speaking, but yeah, I mean like Chuba is more
28:34volatile than what the mark, especially in season long.
28:36When we, I know this is a best ball show, but when you get to your season long drafts and people are
28:43drafting off a projection a lot more than they probably should.
28:46Chuba is one of those players where he's going to look a lot better from a projection standpoint than like a versus it capturing his actual volatility.
28:53Like he's in a backfield where quite literally last year, we saw this coaching staff be okay with replacing him, you know,
29:00with, with, with another running back that was just playing better at the time.
29:04And, you know, Rico Dowdle cooled down a little bit down the stretch, but if Jonathan Brooks plays well and he's a
29:10good prospect and there's a lot of upside attached to that profile, Chuba Hubbard can lose his job.
29:15He can lose a big workload in that backfield because we've seen it.
29:19There's no attachment. And I, I, I give the Panthers credit for what they did last year, right?
29:24Like Hubbard was not playing as well as Rico Dowdle was, and they made the switch.
29:29And then when Dowdle started to play, that's when Hubbard started, you know, Hubbard was healthier and he was starting to get
29:35more work and he looked a little bit better down the stretch.
29:39Like that's what a hot hand approach really should be.
29:42When coaches just say, Oh, we're going to go running back with a hot hand.
29:46The most carries they're really just saying, we're going to give the running back that we like the most, the most carries,
29:52but Carolina actually went with a hot hand approach.
29:55And because of that, we should be open to that when we're drafting those running backs in that backfield.
30:00Yeah. When we have an asset like Jonathan Brooks, who is so extremely volatile, it is not only hard to project him,
30:07but in the same backfield, somebody who is likely to get some work, it's terribly difficult to also project to hover, right?
30:13Because if Brooks goes super say on, like you said, that eats into Choubert Hubbard's ability.
30:18If Brooks, if the injuries are just too much for him to sustain, then all of a sudden Choubert Hubbard becomes a value here in the seventh round.
30:26So just a very volatile asset. Remember Hubbard was Hubbard was a fade for this show last year.
30:31And it's because he was a fifth round pick.
30:34And there is a significant, significant opportunity cost difference when you're talking round five to round eight.
30:39There's that's a large, especially if you look at it this year, you know, you're passing on like Cortland Sutton types or Michael Wilson types or whatever.
30:46It's a huge, huge difference versus like Christian Watson or some of these year two running backs.
30:51Like that's a big, big deal. That's why like Choubert to me is not really a fade just simply because of that overall.
30:58But anyway, we have a guest for today's show, Rich.
31:01If you guys have been following Pete over that.
31:03So you think you can tout, then you have seen the guys from the toxic tower on that show.
31:09One of them being best ball guy, BBG or Eric, whatever you want to call him.
31:13Actually, I asked him in this interview what he wanted to be called.
31:17And he said, BBG is fine. So we'll go with BBG, but he's from the toxic tower.
31:22You could, you probably saw him on. So you think you can tout.
31:26He's got a YouTube channel of his own as well at best ball guy.
31:30It was a great conversation. We talked about what people might misunderstand going from season long to best ball, the importance of rankings.
31:37So the discussion that we had last week, we talked about that on the show and in the interview, some recent big name risers, so much more.
31:44It was a great, great conversation. I hope you guys enjoy it.
31:48So without further ado, here's my chat with BBG.
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32:29Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. All right, baby G, we have a lot of people that are kind of
32:36coming into the draft game and the fantasy football game right now.
32:39You know, we're post 4th of July. This is usually the time frame when people start getting into it more.
32:45What do you think for people who are maybe getting into, you know, dipping their toes into best ball a little bit?
32:51What do you think folks get wrong when thinking about season long and then going into best ball and what are some of the pitfalls there?
32:59Yeah, so I was imagining someone coming over from, you know, a redraft landscape into best ball for the first time.
33:05And one of the things that I think that people need to realize about best ball is you're playing a massive tournament here.
33:11That is really the big difference here is you have these tens of thousands to hundreds of thousand person contests.
33:17And essentially, you cannot add and drop players, right?
33:20That's the major difference with best ball. So you need to plan your teams to have not only the firepower for the
33:26late season, which can come sometimes from those, you know, handcuffed running backs, rookie wide receivers, stuff like that.
33:32But you also need to be careful about the fact that you can't add and drop players, you need to also try
33:38to not take zeros on your roster. So it's really this game of building teams that don't have zeros, but also yet
33:44have upside baked into some of these profiles that can break out late and give you that like late season hammer, you
33:51really want to look down at a team in best ball that advances through the regular season into week 15 that has
33:57like, you know, these really fun rookies that are recently breaking out or you do have the, you know, the Bucky Irving
34:03of 2024, who has taken over the backfield that you got in the 15th round and is starting now on your roster, that kind of thing.
34:11Yeah. You know, I was thinking about this. I was actually doing a live stream last week and we always hear the phrase better in best ball, right?
34:19Where like these players are better in a best ball environment than they are in a season long environment.
34:24And I think that when people, and to your point, I think that the way that people think about that is almost
34:31backwards because they often think, oh, I need like, of course you need spikes, spikes ceilings and weekly ceilings and such.
34:37But I also think that like, they're not thinking about it.
34:40Like, like for instance, Chris Rodriguez, right. Or Jordan Mason types, like those, those types of like early down grinders where they're, they're sealing from a receiving perspective.
34:48Isn't that, that crazy? I don't really mind like a Jordan Mason is whatever.
34:52I mean, it's late enough that I'm not going to really like care if someone like has like a really hardcore stance
34:59on these guys, but realistically like a Jordan Mason type, I'm probably going to like more in a best ball environment than
35:05I am in a season long environment because, because there's going to just be some production from those players, but we might
35:11not know when that production is going to come.
35:14And so I think that there's also like, to your point of not taking zeros, like those players that we typically are
35:20like, oh, I don't really care about that guy.
35:23Cause like, even in my draft guide every year, I'm just like, get the guys that have ceiling only worry about ceiling.
35:29And that's what you should be doing. But you actually do have to think about the floor for these players and not
35:35just draft, you know, Nick Singleton over and over again, because there's a chance that Singleton's a zero this year.
35:41Like that's a very distinct possibility. Not to say that he can't be something.
35:45I still have drafted him, but you have to check yourself a little bit and make sure that you're not overweight on
35:52some of those players that the way that you kind of see things too.
35:56Yeah. Yeah. You know, and I'm, I'm fine. If you want to be overweight on Nick Singleton, like call your shot on
36:02these late round guys, of course, but absolutely. I think every single year, the, the staple of having good advance rates are the middle round running back hits.
36:10Like they could be Jordan Mason or Chris Rodriguez this year.
36:13I mean, we saw it with like, um, ETN.
36:16I don't know if we want to say HN junior, but, uh, you know, ETN Javante Williams last year, these guys were the same exact bets, right?
36:24Kind of grinder backs on kind of ambiguous backfields away.
36:27I guess those, yeah, they are ambiguous. Yeah. I would say tootin's an ambiguous, uh, you know, player right now.
36:32So yeah, it's like, these guys can be massive advance rate pieces.
36:36So absolutely. But in the same, in the same, right, you can still mix in a really fun upside pick like a
36:42Nick Singleton at the end of your drafts. Yeah.
36:45So I always try to like balance the, all right, how, how risky was I in some of these profiles earlier on
36:51in terms of getting guys that might be zeros.
36:54And then, you know, late, like there was a draft.
36:57I drafted Zach Charbonnet, which I haven't gotten a lot of Charbonnet, but it was a, you know, he fell whatever.
37:03And then I was contemplating, I was in chat and actually emo was watching.
37:07Uh, so shout out toxic tower, but, uh, emo was, was watching the stream and it was the 20th round.
37:12And I'm sitting there and I'm like, should I go running back or wide receiver?
37:17And emo was like, you should go running. And he made a great point.
37:21He's like, you like, cause I, I, I let the chat kind of vote which direction I go in.
37:26And he's like, you gotta get running back because we can't assume that Charbonnet, you know, is, is healthy.
37:32You know, he could be a zero realistically. And so, uh, ended up going running back in that case just to get
37:38a little bit more beef, you know, at the position after potentially taking some of those zeros.
37:43All right. With that being, with, with all that being said, what's one of the more overlooked thoughts or, or strategies you
37:49think, uh, that more people should be aware of with best ball?
37:53Yeah. So this one, I wanted to relate it to my DK Millie maker finals team last year.
37:58Um, and I'm just going to say it's unique pairings.
38:01I think last year in this, this, sometimes the unique pairings come in two ways.
38:05Sometimes it's a forced unique pairing where I go.
38:08Gentty at the term, but I pull up Nico Collins or something like something where the ADPs don't line up whatsoever.
38:14Or if you're in a spot and this actually happened to me in a draft last night, but last year I was
38:20able to go Aminra and then Puka fell back to me.
38:23I don't remember if this was during the, the Matt Stafford back problem kind of thing, but the Aminra Puka combo last
38:30year accelerated that entire team into the finals. So I think having that unique pairing can be a big lever to pull once you get to the finals.
38:38So, and this is kind of a, there's two ways to think about this, right?
38:42You can either force the unique pairing or if you're in the middle rounds, like if you get picks six through nine,
38:49kind of, you can almost go off of the top of ADP.
38:52And last night I was doing a Millie maker and I got Aminra at nine and, or 10, and then lamb fell all the way back to me.
39:00And that, that in my head, I was like, that is the exact, almost the exact same feeling is how it felt
39:06when Puka fell back to me with Aminra on that team that got me there.
39:11So I would say that, or one other thing would be winning the flex.
39:15And I think this one might be more actionable, but I think, I think people take quarterback and tight end too early, to be honest with you.
39:23And I think grabbing the strongest possible wide receiver running backs oftentimes make the strongest teams winning the flex.
39:28Those, those, um, those two positions up at the top of the board, those guys have the best chance of breaking out.
39:34Whereas you can find later round quarterbacks later round tight ends that can be the big hits for the season.
39:40So when you, when you talk about unique combos and specifically with the Millie, is that something that you're doing immediately now?
39:47Or are you waiting maybe until like August to make sure that ADP settled a little bit?
39:51I'm, I'm waiting till August. Great question. Yeah, definitely waiting till August.
39:55Um, we know news can move stuff around. I would say maybe, you know, if you're, if you're running, if you're doing
40:01all 150, you know, you get, get that itch during the summer.
40:05Um, you know, mix it up a little bit cause you don't think Nico Collins is going to move anywhere or whatever.
40:11But as we know, uh, guys get in legal trouble, they get injured.
40:15You know, there's not really too many reasons why guys rise all that much, but they can definitely fall.
40:20So I do like to wait till August. I think doing the majority of my expensive drafts, I like to do them in August in general.
40:28Yeah. Yeah. Do you find another thing that I, and this is completely like, it's kind of related, but if you get that, like Aminra, CD lamb start.
40:36Okay. And you're like, you're like, Oh, this is sick.
40:39Like this, this could go really, really well. And like, let's say round three falls into place too.
40:44Do you find yourself? And this is a completely subjective opinionated thing.
40:47Like, I don't think there's a real answer. Maybe you feel like there is a real answer, but do you feel like
40:54when you get a start like that, you then force the issue and just get your favorite plays from then on out
41:00because you really want that lineup to like, like you're like, all right, I already, I already hit the jackpot early on with these first three rounds.
41:08I'm just going to get the dudes that I think are going to hit.
41:12Cause obviously we have our favorites, right? I'm just going to get the dudes that I think are going to hit.
41:18Therefore, this could just be the lineup that, that I'm going to sort of like hold on to and say, this could
41:24be the one that, that brings it home this year.
41:27Definitely. I mean, I think more through a, like a structure standpoint.
41:31So I'm like, okay, I have Alman Ross CD lamb.
41:34I have the wide receiver one and two on the season.
41:37Like, think about it like that. So then, then I start building my draft backwards in my head.
41:42Um, it's like this team obviously is going to need running back points.
41:46Let's it's like, let's just make sure this team advances because you don't screw this up because people don't have Alman raw lamb in the finals.
41:53They like that, that combo is so rare and unique.
41:56Like I said, it's such a big lever that I'm pulling that.
42:00But you know, maybe it is different on draft Kings.
42:02Maybe that is common. Sorry. If it's not, I've only done 15 DK millie makers.
42:07No, no. Look, it's not, it's not a very super, super common thing.
42:11I mean, like lamb will fall at times just because people on, on DK will be pretty wild.
42:16Uh, you know, it's okay. Once you turn, but it's not, I would not call it a common start.
42:21Yeah. Yeah. Well, I would just say once you get it, just make sure you can advance it from there.
42:27So back to, let's make sure we get running back points.
42:30I think in the third, I went with maybe ETN or something, just trying to get some, some starting running back points like that.
42:37Yeah. Like ETN, Scadabo in the fourth, whatever. But yeah, that's all I'm thinking through.
42:41I don't, I'm also thinking like it would be super ideal to get Dak or golf on this team.
42:47Maybe even both like just fully commit to those two offenses.
42:50Um, but that's really all I'm thinking is, uh, let's, let's get this team to the two week 15 where no one
42:56has this combo and I'm going to have it.
42:59Yeah. Yeah. Let's not screw it up. And I think like, it's, it's also just like, let's make sure we don't get screwed at quarterback.
43:06Right. And like, just like reach a little bit just to make sure that when that quarterback run inevitably happens, that we
43:13don't, we don't screw ourselves over, which is my gosh, just a side rant.
43:17And I had Puka and Devante last night and someone took naked Stafford way above ADP.
43:21And it's the most tilting thing on the planet.
43:24It is. It absolutely is. And to speak to your point, someone took Dak one pick before me with no, with no
43:30cowboy just on that team in the seventh round.
43:33I was like, yeah. Although the great Adam Levitan has noted that as tilting as those instances are, it's great that we're
43:39drafting with people that do that because that means that that rooms aren't as sharp.
43:43Right. So it's, when you think of it that it stings, it sucks, but then, you know, you, you fall back on
43:50that idea and you're like, all right, I'll, I'll take it over the long run.
43:54Yeah. And to my earlier point, it's also like, it opened up this ability to be like, all right, it's still the seventh round.
44:01Like, let me take another usable running back here.
44:04I can get Jalen Warren who might be this year's Kenneth Gainwell on this team instead.
44:08So let's go that route. Yeah. A hundred percent.
44:11I had this discussion last week on becoming a best ball bro with Rich Ryan to open up the show.
44:17And I want to hear your thoughts because, you know, in the fantasy football space, especially as touts and as, as analysts,
44:23everyone wants rankings and we know that. And so we produce them and we, you know, give them out and whatever.
44:29And in my opinion with best ball, my opinion was best ball rankings are generally probably a little bit overrated in the
44:35way that the, the, the average player looks at them.
44:38Would you agree with that statement? Or do you think that they might be underrated?
44:43I wouldn't say they're underrated. I say, I do think they can be useful though, because I think what rankings allow you
44:49to do is see who people are really out on more so that people are into.
44:54I think that's a good way to look at it.
44:56Cause you know, I don't really want to take a guy 15 spots ahead ADP if I don't have to, especially in
45:03the early rounds, like we can push the guy to his regular spot most of the time, but like, um, you know,
45:09I I've seen rankings that worked really well. I think like 2024 Michael Pittman was like, you know, a fourth round pick,
45:15but a lot of people's rankings had him as like a seventh round pick.
45:20It's like, okay, that's a good, like full fade.
45:22Like that's, you know, so I think rankings work really well for, for fading.
45:26And I think they work well for maybe later round guys that you should be getting a bag of really is kind of how I view them.
45:34But they should be tiered. If they could be perfect, they would be tiered.
45:38Right. Cause it's like, I tried to do rankings one time and I was just like, well, yeah, I have Hampton like,
45:44or whatever, you know, it's like, yeah, I like Hampton over Derek Henry.
45:48But at the same time, I'm like, dude, Derek Henry could bury you.
45:52So yeah. Yeah. Right. It's a 51 49 type thing.
45:55Yeah. But how do I articulate that in this ranking that you're downloading?
45:58Yes. Yes. I mean, tiers are huge for my process for sure.
46:02Especially like the, the fourth round wide outs this year.
46:05Like they're all to me, there's just so much upside.
46:08I like, I, I am a, like a Luther burden truther.
46:11So I'm getting them every time he falls for the most part.
46:14Right. But like, regardless, like I, I, uh, I don't have like insanely strong opinions.
46:19My, my opinion is if you're in like an auction draft for season long, just, just completely gobble up a lot of those dudes.
46:26And, and don't worry about the early round guys, cause you can just get so much value with, with that, uh, that tier of wide receiver.
46:33A question that I get very frequently by best ball bro listeners is how to determine exposure to players.
46:39Uh, do you personally set a hard cap? Do you think that there's like a, a general like formulaic way to do this?
46:45Or do you think it's more of like a case by case, how you are individually from a risk tolerance perspective?
46:51Well, it's definitely a risk tolerance thing, right? Like if you, and like, you know, this is one of those years that you could do something like this.
46:59Like if you wanted 30% Puka Nakua, cause you think he's the best wide receiver in the NFL and you want to
47:06have that lever on most of your teams, you can take him at the one Oh one one Oh two, one Oh three, one Oh four.
47:13So you can, you can do something like that.
47:16That is crazy risk tolerance though. Cause you're fading Gibbs B John Jamar chase.
47:20Right. So the main thing I would say is once again, I think, I think having the, in the early rounds, I
47:26think for me personally, it's about a 20% cap on certain players, I think would be realistic if I had to guesstimate.
47:33But I think as you get later into the drafts, I think, I think if you believe in a Jeremy Bernard or
47:39something like that with these lower cost guys, you know, back to that auction thing, these guys only cost you a dollar or two.
47:46So if they flop, who cares? Kind of a thing.
47:49But if you really believe in them, yeah. Take them on half your teams.
47:53If you want, it's not going to kill you even if there is zero, but if, uh, if, if you have a
47:59full stance on whatever, I don't even know, you're taking Rashi rice in the second round every time and he gets hurt or whatever.
48:06Like there goes most of your season. Yeah. Yeah.
48:09Do you have, do you have like how many guys over 20% do you think you'll be at this year?
48:14Like, or, or per season? Like just, just generally.
48:17Uh, at all positions. Yeah. Yeah. Probably. Probably like two tight ends, three or four, probably like almost 10.
48:22So not like a crazy amount, but yeah, that's pretty standard for me.
48:26I do build, you know, I do, I definitely believe that this, this is such a crazy game of variants and stuff.
48:33So I don't, I don't flag plant too much, but I have like a grouping of guys that I really like at the end of drafts.
48:40And I'll have, um, you know, a nice 20% of all of them or whatever.
48:44Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. There have been some players recently over on draft Kings that have been steamed up a good bit in ADP.
48:52And I want to go through them. There's four guys I want to talk through and hear your take on them.
48:58The first one is a flowers who, you know, a month ago you could get pretty frequently in round four or at
49:04least at the three, four turn, but now he goes to the two, three turns sometimes.
49:09I mean, people will bring them up there. Are you in or out on, on Z this year?
49:14Yeah, I know. I mean, and I've definitely seen that.
49:17Oh man. I, he, I'm like, I want to say neutral because he's such a good talent.
49:22I love Declan Doyle coming over to the Ravens offense.
49:25I think we're going to get like this new revamped Lamar Jackson S season could be an MVP type season.
49:30But at the end of the day, I mean, we still have Derek Henry scoring most of the touchdowns.
49:36You have Lamar rushing in the touchdowns. You have Mark Andrews is a red zone threat.
49:40They do bring in some competition. I would just be hesitant at these prices.
49:44One thing that happens in best ball every single year is sometimes T Higgins and Jalen Waddle will be like two, three
49:51turn picks and Devonta Smith will be too. And then they fall down to the fourth round, late fourth round.
49:57Like these guys move up and down the board really heavily based on how they perform the prior year.
50:02And flowers did have a great 2025 season. But I would say I, I like him as an upside play or like
50:08a, like a weekly upside play, but as a season long advance rate piece, I actually think it's probably not that strong.
50:15Cause I don't really, I don't personally see how he can go too much higher than what he did last year.
50:21I think he has to kind of repeat what he did last year to be viable at that price.
50:26Yeah. I mean, to me, it's like, I, I almost feel like, like that some of the fourth round picks are just
50:33as good as the third round picks. Like, like it's, it's, there's just not such a significant, so I can like understand
50:39pulling him up, but I, yeah, I mean like there's definitely, especially like the touchdown stuff because he's not been an end zone threat.
50:46Like he doesn't get many end zone targets. He doesn't get many red zone targets.
50:50You got to hope that it changes. Is I'll, I'm higher than the market on Zay in general this year, but yeah,
50:57I mean like there's definitely some like red flag type stuff, you know, with his profile overall, let's, let's move on to
51:03AJ Brown, who went from being a like mid third round pick often to then being traded, which we all knew was going to happen.
51:10Like, I wish I would have gotten way more.
51:13I did not read that room well at all, even though I knew it was coming.
51:17Like I knew that he was going to rise a little bit.
51:21I just didn't expect him to rise to sometimes the early second round from that third round price.
51:26So are you in or out on, on AJ Brown right now?
51:29It's so weird. You think the market bakes it in and they never do.
51:34They never do. So I, yeah, I did luckily grab a ton of AJ Brown while I could, he's yeah, the second round pick.
51:40And I think I'm in, I want to find a guy that I like enough to break up that running back cluster.
51:47And I saw him at ADP 16 when I did that Millie maker last night.
51:51And, you know, I was like, I think it makes sense.
51:54I think you lose to fond digs. I think Drake may is one of the best passing quarterbacks in the NFL hands down.
52:01And I think the target volume could be there.
52:04The efficiency of the offense could be there. And, you know, I, I do have this fundamental belief that people are taking
52:10too much early running back this season, I think.
52:12So pulling these, these strong wide receiver levers, once again, I do think is a, is a fine option.
52:18It's your point about like, you know, people getting him in the third before, and now he's in the second.
52:24I don't think that really matters too much. Only, you know, what, maybe 10, 15% of the contest was drafted when he was a third round pick.
52:32And also he probably wasn't falling to the late third.
52:34So all the teams that have like, you know, a gente start or a CD lamb start probably don't have AJ Brown on them for the most part.
52:42So, yeah, I was also, I also think like when it comes to that kind of thing, and I know that people
52:49have stronger opinions than I do on this, but I also think like when AJ Brown had a decreased cost, when he
52:55was a third round pick at that point in time, we also didn't necessarily have as much information as what we're going
53:02to have in August to like boost up some other players.
53:05So like you really have to have had, I mean, look, you can, you can draft some crazy teams in May, right?
53:11Like you can, you can draft some crazy teams and in early June, I get all of that, but I don't want
53:17to overstate what that means because you, you, you have to actually do that.
53:21And it's not the easiest thing in the world.
53:24And there's some luck involved, right? And doing that.
53:27So it's, it's not the easiest thing in the world to do.
53:30So admittedly with AJ Brown, like I'm not against drafting him.
53:33I often am gravitating towards the running backs, but to your point, I'm trying hard to differentiate my, my structures, my, my
53:40roster construction this year, because a lot of people are just kind of like an autopilot, just going like RBRB in that area of the draft.
53:47And that, that I think is the way to not do it right.
53:51Is to get AJ Brown. So, and I don't want it to be overlooked.
53:55Like AJ Brown could have 160 targets this season, right?
53:58They really could feed him and he's, he has not slowed down whatsoever in that.
54:02I think people are really traumatized from the Eagles experience with him.
54:06Oh yes. Yes. I mean, we're seeing it with, with Jalen hurts ADP and stuff right now.
54:11That one is crazy too. It is way too cheap.
54:13He's way too cheap. Like I know, I understand if you don't like that, he doesn't throw over the middle of the
54:20field or whatever, but take Jalen hurts in the seventh round when you see him.
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55:03Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. How about Bashal Tootin?
55:07He's rising a little bit because of the Chris Rodriguez stuff.
55:10Are you, I mean, I feel like this is the great divide of the fantasy football in 2026.
55:15Are you in or out on Bayshall? I'm, I want to be in, but I'm kind of out for the most part.
55:21I mean, I'm looking at Trevion Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, Bucky Irving.
55:25There's even another, DeAndre Swift. All these guys go right around where he goes and I prefer all of those guys to him.
55:31So it's going to be hard for me to get to Bashal Tootin.
55:35You know, I get it. We really like the Jaguars offense, but I think you're paying this premium price right now based
55:41on the Chris Rodriguez foot injury thing. We saw, well, for one, there's a report that he's going to be totally fine for training camp.
55:49So he might, Tootin might literally fall back to the 5-6 turn or even the 6th round.
55:54Then you just factor in that he just couldn't get himself on the field last season.
55:58Like, that's, that's not good for me. I don't view ETN as like this guy that you can never take off the
56:04field and Tootin couldn't even do it last year.
56:07So I don't love that. So I think you're, you're paying a premium and you're really hoping for this mega efficiency and
56:13touchdowns, but I think, I think he's going to get cheaper.
56:17So from a market based game, I think, you know, draft him in August when he's a six round pick, I don't
56:23see how he keeps moving up, but if he does, I probably won't have much of him as much as I want the Jaguars running back.
56:30I think I just, I'd go somewhere else with it.
56:33It feels like there's a better chance than not that Chris Rodriguez is like, we're not going to get to training camp
56:40and Chris Rodriguez is like, oh, his foot's falling.
56:42It's like a Joe Mixon situation or something like that.
56:45Right. Where it's like, like, so I think probability wise, you're probably right that Tootin could then just immediately see a lower price.
56:52And if you're playing the long game here, right, if you're, if you're drafting in May through August and you want to
56:58just capture as much CLV as possible, then it would make sense to just kind of wait on Bayshall.
57:04If you're not, if you're not dry, like I liked, like I was a Tootin truth from him, him as a prospect.
57:10I think that in season long, he's a target because of the way that other platforms have him ranked and stuff.
57:16Cause best ball ADP is not the same as season long ADP.
57:20It's just like, go look at what's going on over at ESPN, et cetera.
57:24It's different. Where do they got him? He's more of like closer to like the, the 25 to 30 range at running back.
57:30Whereas here he's more of like the 20 to 23 ish range.
57:34Right. And that to me is, is enough of a difference to be like, yeah, I mean like now you're almost definitely
57:40getting him as a, as an RB three type in season long, which I think is perfect for a player like Tootin.
57:46Like if you go running back, running back, that's where I feel more confident in getting a player like Bayshall Tootin because
57:53now you have that insulation, but if you're not going that direction, it's a little bit more difficult to rely on him
57:59in that way, especially in best ball with what we had just talked about, you know, and wanting to, to not have take zeros, et cetera.
58:07And so, yeah, I mean, there's just different prices, you know, in these different platforms and stuff.
58:11And right now I'm a, I'm a Tootin truther and I'm not even going like ham with this price right now.
58:18Yeah. I like, and I liked the profile, like you said.
58:21Right. And, um, I, I I'll say this much.
58:23I wish I took a lot more when he was in that like seventh, eighth round in the pre-draft stuff.
58:29That was the, that was the time to buy, but they also came out and there was a giant report about how
58:35they wanted JK Dobbins this off season and the Broncos swooped in first and got him.
58:40So clearly they're like looking for other running back help.
58:43They were not planning on giving this guy, you know, 280 carries this season.
58:47I don't think so. But what do you think of this take?
58:50I had this take with the, the JK Dobbins thing where everyone has tied Chris Rodriguez to Liam Cohen because they have a history, right?
58:58Cause he played with him at Kentucky and Chris Rodriguez was handpicked, but doesn't the JK Dobbins report say the opposite of
59:04that, that, that he wasn't like Chris Rodriguez like wasn't there because they were look, they were, they were going to add
59:10somebody and maybe JK Dobbins was the top guy that they wanted to add.
59:14And I think that that would impact, obviously impact like maybe the way they view toot.
59:19But overall I'm like reading this report. The natural response is like, Oh, they don't like Bayshall toot.
59:24And but I'm like, I think the response might be that like, they don't really like Chris Rodriguez the way that people think that they do.
59:32You know, in the sad part is, is like the fact that I am saying not to take toot and because of Chris Rodriguez really upsets me honestly.
59:40Cause like Chris Rodriguez is very good whatsoever. Right.
59:42I just worry. Cause Trevor Lawrence had like nine rushing touchdown.
59:46I just, I just don't know. Yeah. Yeah. I like the, yeah.
59:49I just worry that tootin won't score that much, but maybe he will.
59:53I, you know, it's a fair look. I think you're, I like your third, your third running back.
59:58Take that's a fun one. Get him as your third.
60:01Yeah. That's, that seems fun. That's what I've been trying to do mostly.
60:05And then obviously I'm doing enough drafts that I can just wait till he falls.
60:09You know, I'm not, I'm not at the four, like I'm still in the wide receiver tier at that four or five turn area.
60:16Yeah. Right. Yeah. We're still taking Davante Adams and Jalen Waddle and these guys who we know are just good, especially on a full PPR platform.
60:23But if he's like five, six turn, then yeah.
60:26Like I'll, especially because in that area you're typically going running back, running back, or oftentimes you're going running back, running back.
60:32And so he is your RB three and it's a lot easier.
60:36Not only that, but if you get tootin in the back half of the fifth and into the sixth, that's also Trevor
60:42Lawrence range in the, in the seventh and eighth, like where, where he will generally go.
60:47So you can like start stacking Jags and Parker Washington or Brian Thomas, however you want to do it.
60:52So like, that's kind of the approach I've taken with, with tootin is that I'm not fading him by any means.
60:58I'm just kind of picking and choosing where I end up getting them.
61:02That's fair. I do the same thing with Trevor on Henderson who have a huge stand on this year.
61:08So, and I, I do like him when he is my third running back.
61:12I think he has that, that hammer ability to win you any week possible.
61:16And so as a third, you know, maybe, maybe more, um, up and down throughout the season though, with Ramondre still there, of course.
61:23All right. The last guy I want to touch on it.
61:26I don't know if it's like, like an ETR effect or something.
61:29Cause I think Silva's high or like, like moved him up his rankings a whole lot, but Quentin Johnston was like, I
61:35swear like a ninth or 10th round pick one day.
61:38And then the next day he on, on draft games was like a six, seven turn player out of like, literally in like a 48 hour period.
61:46So where are you at with QJ right now?
61:49I was shocked. I saw him go in the sixth round yesterday.
61:52I'm out. I'm out on that price. I don't, I don't get it.
61:56He's not, he doesn't have the full PPR kind of scammy thing to him.
62:00So he's not going to be this dominant target earner.
62:03His whole thing is based on like his yak ability, I guess, but no, I am.
62:08I'm out on the sixth round. I don't think you're going to, I don't think he's better than lad.
62:13I don't think you're ever going to be the wide receiver one on the chargers.
62:17I think the chargers inherently also want to run the absolute crap out of the ball.
62:22They have everything in their power to do that.
62:25Blocking fullback, blocking tight end. One of the best lines in the league to really good running backs.
62:30I think you're just paying for a very expensive, inconsistent spike week guy.
62:33Like I, I dare to say it like take Rashid Shaheed or something.
62:37Yeah. The interesting thing with QJ is that if you want to, like, I try to like arbitrage a little bit with season long, right?
62:44Where if I'm out on a guy in best ball or if I don't like his price, you can look at season long and see his price.
62:52Totally different in season long with QJ. If you guys want QJ exposure, my recommendation would be he's going to be a tart.
62:59He's actually a dart throw in the draft guide this year.
63:02Spoiler alert, because he goes after wide receiver 50 on an ADP on all these other platforms.
63:07And so if you want to get QJ exposure, do it in season long.
63:11I think he's a great season long pick because there's some outs for him.
63:15And there's something, especially if you're in more of a half PPR environment, like you said, like I, I like the fit
63:21from a yak perspective, all of that. But if you're taking QJ in the same range as these elite quarterbacks and like
63:28somebody like it's, it's crazy to me. It's wild.
63:30And maybe, maybe we're idiots at the end of the year, but I just, I don't, I don't see it right now.
63:37He, you know, through week five last year, I felt like an idiot.
63:40Um, man, dude, I've been burned by QJ so bad.
63:43I had, he was my most drafted player. One of my most draft players, his rookie season.
63:48And then I was so burned. I was like, I'm never drafting you again.
63:52And then sophomore year just goes off as a 15th round pick.
63:56So yeah, I feel, yeah, I don't want to be chasing the dragon there.
64:00Speaking of fades, do you have any, uh, pretty hard fades in the, in the early rounds this year?
64:05I do. I have a, I have a pretty strong fade on Jonathan Taylor right now, which does freak me out because
64:12we know I, yeah, he's got, he has the ability to drop 40 every single week.
64:16He is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL, but I'm, I have the same feeling that this is
64:23kind of what happened with like Saquon last year, you know, Saquon in 2024 had like six or like five, 60 yard touchdown runs.
64:30It was the, the, uh, Eagles franchise record of 50 or maybe the NFL record, honestly, um, of these touchdown runs.
64:36And I feel like Taylor did that. He did great last year with that, but you're coming into an offense that has a quarterback with a torn Achilles.
64:44The backup is Riley Leonard, who I don't think is very good, or maybe it's Richardson.
64:48I'm not even sure there, but either way, I don't think it's a great situation.
64:53Um, and I also think the Colts just got off to this extremely hot start that is not going to be repeatable for the most part, I think.
65:01And he could bury me like he, could you need Jonathan Taylor against the Browns week 17 potentially?
65:06Yeah. So that's where I'm like, you know, I'm definitely going to mix in some Taylor at the end of my, maybe
65:12at the end of August, once I can see how many Taylor teams I have basically, but yeah, for, from an advanced
65:19rate perspective, I don't think that I'm going to want Jonathan Taylor.
65:22Yeah. If you look at his splits from week one to week 10 last year, which is when he like everyone is
65:28sort of like anchored to what he did, you know, during that stretch, he averaged like 27 and a half PPR points per game.
65:35It was crazy. Like he was, he was going absolutely nuts.
65:38And then I think that people look at like the other split, you know, out of this past week 10 and they
65:45assume that, Oh, that was just because Daniel Jones was out.
65:48But even the next three games after that split, cause I think it was that Falcons game that was overseas where he
65:54like went nuts when absolutely ham Jonathan Taylor did.
65:57And then after that game, he averaged like 12 PPR points per game for three weeks.
66:02And then Daniel Jones went down and he averaged 13.3 PPR points per game down the stretch, which really like, again, we
66:08know the ceiling is there, but also I'm not sitting here.
66:11Minneapolis literally be, they were the best team in touchdowns per game through that the first 10 weeks last year.
66:17And that's crazy, right? Like they were the best team in the NFL.
66:21Like if you had a through week eight, if you had the super bowl odds, it was probably Colts to go to the super bowl.
66:28Right. Right. And, and Daniel Jones now coming off the Achilles and you know, just general regression.
66:33Like I, I, I think Jonathan Taylor's a general fade this year, just because he's placed in a tier above the, the
66:39genties and even like the James cooks, if you want to throw him in there, if he, if he does end up
66:45catching more passes, like the reports are saying or whomever, I think he's just in the same tier as these guys, even
66:52like a, like, are you going to be shocked if like chase Brown outscores Jonathan Taylor this year in full PPR?
66:58No, I think after CMC goes, I think you kind of enter a very flat tier, honestly, all the way down to chase Brown, Henry.
67:05Yeah, totally agree. Totally agree. When you're looking late in drafts, who are, who are you targeting frequently right now?
67:11My most drafted player actually is a late round quarterback.
67:14So it's Fernando Mendoza. I don't know if this call is late, but that's late.
67:18Any, any time we, we've basically found out over the last few seasons that the Sims absolutely agree with three quarterbacks, especially on the 20 round draft Kings.
67:26We, so it's like, let's pull the lever of rookie mystery box Mendoza, but also the mystery box isn't much of a mystery.
67:33This is like the Heisman winner championship, uh, Indiana quarterback who is, you know, he's a beast.
67:38Like physically he's huge, which I love. He's got all the quarterback skill sets for the physical aspect.
67:43Um, but he also has a rushing side to him, which I think people underestimate.
67:47I think his ability, he's like, maybe not like, um, obviously Lamar or anything like that, but he's got like a Trevor
67:54Lawrence in him where you get around the goal line and this guy's got a nose for the end zone.
67:59So when I can take that third quarterback who I know is going to be starting at the end of the season,
68:06yes, I do not think Kirk is playing the whole season.
68:09You know, I don't know if there are Kirk truthers out there that think he is, but you factor Clint Kubiak to
68:15absolutely elite, elite weapons with Bowers and Jenty that you can throw the ball to, um, and his ability to run in
68:22touchdowns at after pick one 70 right now. Yeah.
68:24Is a fantastic lever to pull in my opinion.
68:27And then on top of that week 16, he plays the Titans in a dome and then week 17, he plays the Cardinals in the dome.
68:34So if you have Mendoza by week 16 on a playoff basketball team, you are, I think you're feeling so good about your chances.
68:41Yeah. I, I love that call. I think that that's one of the, uh, you know, in going three quarterback, if you
68:47get two pretty established guys where you're like, I could just settle here and be done at quarterback.
68:53Like he's been one that I just kind of tag on, especially if I got Bowers early, right?
68:58It's not easy. Or just a Cardinal. If you took Jeremiah love or McBride, just have the bring back.
69:03Yeah. Yeah. Totally agree. That's a great call. Love that.
69:06All right. Before I let you go, give me, give me a bold take for this 2026 season.
69:11Bold take for this 2026 season. I'm I'm going to say, man.
69:15Yeah. It's like, you can go a bunch of different directions.
69:18Did you do a player take, do a macro take?
69:21Let's do a macro take. I'm going to say wide receivers matter.
69:24I think people are completely out of the loop with what they're doing at wide receiver.
69:29I think the fact that people can look down at a roster and think that you Jalen Coker is your wide receiver
69:35for, but I have all these awesome quarterbacks and running backs is, is not the way to play.
69:41People are overdrafting quarterback early. They're even taking potentially too many running backs.
69:44If you hit on the mid, the ambiguous round running backs, like every single year, there is Washington, Minnesota, Tennessee, a bunch
69:51of different ambiguous running back rooms this season to where you can just take your anchor early, maybe double anchor if you
69:57want, and then wait a little bit. That is the way to play.
70:01Even Broncos. Now the first Broncos running back goes off round eight.
70:04That's an awesome running back room. So there's that.
70:07And I would just say, get your strong wide receivers early.
70:10They do matter when you are looking down at a team in week 15, week 16.
70:15You don't want to see Jalen Coker's your wide receiver for that.
70:18You need a big game out of that week when you have to beat one in 15 people in the pot or
70:24whatever you want to, you want to look down and see like, okay, sick.
70:28Maybe this team barely advanced at a harder time.
70:31But now I'm looking down at Jamar Chase, Nico Collins, Rice, and my running backs are still good enough to where they can.
70:38And they're, they're obviously good enough because this team advanced kind of thing.
70:41So yeah, that's what, that's what I, that's what I would say.
70:45I love that. I also think that like, this is a really good year to mix up your structural drafting and like,
70:51don't be super rigid with like just doing the same thing over and over.
70:55Not only have I learned through doing this, that that's just a really easy way to like get your exposure in a good place, right?
71:03By not just doing the same thing over and over again, because if you're just drafting running backs early over and over
71:09again, you're going to have zero AJ Brown. You're going to have zero Drake London.
71:13You're going to, you're just not going to have these guys who we know objectively are like, I even look at my portfolio.
71:20Sometimes I'm like, oh crap, I don't have nearly enough Drake London right now, even though I don't like love London this
71:26year in a situation compared to other guys. But I'm like, I understand that he has that outcome of just destroying in
71:33a playoff week because it's Drake freaking London, right?
71:35And especially in a full PPR platform. And so I think it's just really, it's a great call out.
71:41Like it's very easy to listen to shows like this and be like, all right, it's optimal to go running back, running back.
71:47And then to, you know, do whatever you want with these middle round quarterbacks and stuff.
71:52But like you, you can't let wide receiver fall aside because it is still a very, very important position.
71:57Exactly. Yep. That's, that's really about it. Yeah. And then back to the earlier point is like, you know, put, put Drake London on a gente team.
72:05I'm not saying you have to start wide receiver, wide receiver, take an anchor running back and then pound wide receiver.
72:11Like have, have your wide receiver five or six or sorry, wide receiver five be something really fun.
72:16Like maybe it's a Makai lemon in the eighth round who you're looking down, down the stretches, getting more targets than, uh, than Smith or whatever.
72:24Like, and you're advancing that team. That could be, that could be a really fun squad for you.
72:29So yeah. Love that call out BBG man. Let everyone know where they can find you and, and, uh, what you guys
72:35are doing over the toxic tower, what you're doing on your YouTube channel.
72:39Uh, just, just shout it all out. Yeah. Thank you, JJ.
72:42Thanks for having me. It's been great. Um, we are live on the best ball guy, YouTube channel, just type in best ball guy and you'll find it.
72:50I go live twice a week where I do three hours plus of live best ball drafting.
72:55I'm also on a show that is, I don't really know how to even describe talks.
73:00Maybe JJ can do a better version than me, but, uh, it's a, it's like a comedy show yet analytical show, uh,
73:06for best ball as well called the toxic tower.
73:09It is, it is a fantastic time. We do that show one public show a week, and then also one members only
73:15show a week, uh, for $5, you can become a member over there.
73:19So go check it out, man. Yeah. If you, uh, if you search toxic tower on YouTube, um, or best ball guy
73:25on YouTube, you should come across that. I think that toxic tower is great because in the fantasy football space, you don't
73:32find a lot of shows where people are just like openly disagreeing with one another.
73:36And you guys are all buddies and like, you can, you can do that openly and not trash, but just say like,
73:42you know, you're not being smart with this take, whatever.
73:45And you guys can, can, you know, give each other crap for it, but it allows the, from a user perspective and
73:52a watcher perspective, it's very entertaining, but also like we need more of that just general debate.
73:57I think like I'm, I'm guilty of it. You know, I have people on the show all the time where they say
74:03something and I might disagree with it and I try to push back a little bit, but it's not always the easiest thing to do.
74:10But when you're comfortable with that person and those people, it's a lot easier to do it and have fun with it.
74:16So I would definitely check out the toxic tower, all great guys.
74:20PPR Tyler. I'm still kind of iffy. We're still coming around to him.
74:24Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see. As always guys, make sure you check out late round.com.
74:28The late round draft guide will be out on Friday, actually probably Thursday night.
74:32So if you go pre-order that now you will get it.
74:35There's weekly updates, you get rankings and tiers. There's tons of game theory stuff.
74:39I'm finished writing it. We're in sort of the editing phase right now.
74:43And it's going to be about 300 pages long.
74:46It is a very, very beastly guide. It's the longest and most in-depth that I've done.
74:50So check it all out. Late round.com. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in.
74:54This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.