ESPN Fantasy Football

Drafting Jonathan Taylor carries risk this season; Liz Loza provides historical context explaining why the Colts' star could disappoint fantasy managers.

Trevor Lawrence is the third-best pairing option for Brock Purdy if Bo Nix and Justin Herbert are unavailable; he is one of the strong QB partners available in the midround tier for streaming purposes.

Justin Herbert is the second-best pairing option for Brock Purdy if Bo Nix is unavailable; he is one of the strong QB partners available in the midround tier for streaming purposes.

Josh Allen is truly awesome, but there is really no way he should be a second-round pick in standard (non-superflex) ESPN fantasy football leagues. The source cannot make much of a case to take any of the first seven QBs based on their ESPN ADP in those spots, as quarterback remains a deep position with significant value available later.

Jayden Daniels is flagged as a QB injury risk to avoid in draft strategy. The source explicitly warns against drafting him, stating 'not Allen, and certainly not QB injury risks such as Jayden Daniels or Jaxson Dart.'

Jaxson Dart is flagged as a QB injury risk to avoid in draft strategy. The source explicitly warns against drafting him alongside Jayden Daniels, and later reiterates concern, stating 'I am not planning on going near Dart at that generous ADP. It scares me every time he runs,' indicating significant injury and durability concerns.

Jared Goff leads the next tier of fantasy QBs beyond the top 15. The Detroit Lions boast arguably the top offense in the sport and perhaps the most attractive schedule. Goff has a fair number of strong partnerships from the previous tier, particularly with Bo Nix and Brock Purdy, making him a worthwhile streaming option at a reasonable ADP.

Geno Smith is an odd but strong pairing option for managers in deeper (16-plus team) or superflex leagues; he meshes best with Patrick Mahomes based on schedule alignment. You can use Smith in Weeks 1-2 against the Titans and Packers while evaluating Mahomes' return to full strength, then start Mahomes for Weeks 3-4 against the Dolphins and Raiders, then Smith against the Browns during Mahomes' Week 5 bye (the Browns grade as an above-average matchup for a QB despite being well-regarded defensively). In superflex leagues, a Mahomes-Smith partnership can fill one starting slot effectively.

Brock Purdy is the source's annual favorite sleeper QB and a core part of its QB pairing strategy; he is taken in Round 10 or later and paired with another QB for streaming purposes. Bo Nix is identified as Purdy's perfect partner based on schedule alignment, with outstanding matchups at ideal times in Weeks 2, 6, and 14, plus a favorable Cowboys matchup during Nix's Week 10 bye. Purdy's only weak point in the Nix pairing is Nix facing the Chiefs during Purdy's Week 8 bye.

Liz Loza is letting leaguemates draft De'Von Achane instead, indicating she is not overly keen on drafting him this season.

Liz Loza is letting leaguemates draft Joe Burrow instead, indicating she is not overly keen on drafting him this season.

Nabers suffered a season-ending Grade 3 ACL tear with meniscus damage in Week 4 of 2025 after a record-breaking rookie campaign (109 rec, 1,204 yards, 7 TDs, WR6). His recovery has been complicated; a subsequent clean-up operation was performed approximately six months post-initial reconstruction due to reported stiffness, raising real questions about his rehab process and 2026 availability. The source notes that 'return to sport' medical clearance does not automatically translate to 'return to performance.' Additionally, Nabers has drawn exactly three career looks from QB Jaxson Dart with limited time to build rapport given his rehab timeline. Dart ranks 28th in passer rating when throwing beyond the sticks, and with Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney attracting deep looks, Nabers' upside appears diminished at his third-round ADP. The source prefers George Pickens, Chris Olave, Breece Hall, and Kyren Williams as safer selections around the same draft position.

Burrow is the fifth QB off the board with an ADP of 56.9, but the source argues this is an unnecessary gamble given his injury history and lack of rushing upside. Burrow has managed only three seasons of 10+ games played and three seasons of 10 or fewer games; his aggressive playing style combined with the Bengals' bottom-five pass protection (57.6% pass block win rate, 28th in league) creates constant durability risk. Additionally, Burrow derived only 3% of his fantasy production from rushing (330 yards over three seasons) while 12 QBs cleared 340 rushing yards in 2025 alone and 12 of the top 15 QB producers collected 16%+ of points via ground game. The source states Burrow would need to replicate his 2024 campaign or achieve a career effort (4,800 yards, 45 TDs like Matthew Stafford) to justify his ADP, making him an unnecessary risk when positional depth offers better value.

Achane is being selected early in Round 2 as the fourth RB off the board despite significant ecosystem deterioration. While Achane posted 1,800+ scrimmage yards, 12 scores, and 20+ FPTS/game in 2025 with 24 runs of 15+ yards (RB1), the loss of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle removes field-stretching receivers, allowing defenses to key in on him. Only 55 of his 238 carries (23%) came against eight-plus defenders in the box in 2025, but that number is expected to skyrocket, proportionally dipping efficiency. Additionally, QB change from Tua Tagovailoa (5.3 targets per game to Achane, RB5) to Malik Willis—who has yet to attempt 25 passes in an NFL game and is more likely to scramble—removes his checkdown king. Mike McDaniels' exit further divests Achane of his premier running game coordinator. The source concludes Achane's 11.9 ADP is high risk rather than guaranteed reward given lost vertical threats, QB downgrade, and coaching change.

Adams averaged 15.9 FPTS/game (WR9) and led the league with 14 receiving TDs in 2025, but 110 of his 223 total fantasy points (49.3%) came via end zone looks—more than double any other flex player and the most since Randy Moss in 2007. This is only the second time in Adams' 13-year career he has topped 62 end zone points, signaling statistical anomaly and regression risk. Beyond TD dependence, Adams recorded a career-low 110 yards after the catch (WR73), and at age 37 tied to a 38-year-old QB (Matthew Stafford) with a history of back issues, the gamble is substantial. The source argues there is no need to take such risk in the fifth round when reliable veterans like Tee Higgins or potential breakouts like Emeka Egbuka are available.

Goedert exploded for a career-high 11 TDs, nine double-digit fantasy weeks, and 12.3 FPTS/game over 15 games in 2025, but his production is heavily dependent on unsustainable TD rate. Goedert scored on 18.3% of his catches in 2025 versus a 6.9% TD rate over the rest of his career; applying his career 6.9% rate to 2025 would have yielded 4.1 TDs instead of 11, reducing weekly output by 2.76 points and sliding him from TE5 to TE18 in FPTS/game. Additionally, Goedert registered a career-low 9.9 yards per catch (TE26). While A.J. Brown's departure opened 120+ targets, it also reduces space for Goedert to create after the catch and generate large gains downfield. With rookies Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers folding into the offense, Goedert's staying power is expected to wane. The source views him as a fine stream to start the fall but not a TE1 fantasy producer his current rank promises.

McCaffrey is the source's biggest fade at RB despite his elite skill set and 413 touches last season. The source invokes the 'rule of 370'—workloads exceeding 370 touches lead to drastic efficiency declines the following year—and cites Saquon Barkley as a cautionary parallel: Barkley posted 22.2 FPTS/game with 482 touches in 2024 but fell to RB14 in 2025 with an ADP of 3.6, managing just 4.5 yards per touch (RB41). McCaffrey's 2025 efficiency also declined to 3.9 yards per carry (lowest since 2020) despite finishing RB2 in carries (311); only 43.3% of his fantasy points came via rushing (RB47), revealing heavy reliance on receiving work. Entering his age-30 season with a bottom-10 strength of schedule and durability concerns, McCaffrey's 1.05 ADP is deemed unreasonable; a rebound in rushing efficiency is unlikely.

Marks should still have a role in Houston's backfield behind David Montgomery, though the Texans' weak O-line that finished last in run block win rate could limit overall backfield production.

Pollard's fantasy PPG has fallen in three consecutive seasons despite clearing 1,000 rushing yards in four straight seasons. Tennessee's O-line is tough to trust heading into 2026, with Peter Skoronski and JC Latham providing some hope but Dan Moore Jr. coming off a disappointing season, Austin Schlottmann never handling a starter's workload and Cordell Volson returning from injury after uneven play. The offense has limited Pollard's TD ceiling, making him fine as an RB3/flex but not a reach candidate.

Bigsby is a strong insurance back in Philadelphia's backfield but not a real threat to Saquon Barkley's role as the clear centerpiece.

Barkley's production fell from 2,283 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns in 2024 to 1,413 yards and nine scores in 2025, with fantasy output dropping from 22.5 to 14.5 fantasy points per game due to injuries that dragged down Philadelphia's run game. However, the Eagles return all five O-line starters after Lane Johnson's absence was especially noticeable, and Barkley remains the clear centerpiece with 19.8 touches per game. A healthier line and Sean Mannion's offense with more motion, under-center looks and outside-zone runs should help Barkley bounce back at a more favorable ADP.

Harvey has value as a receiver and produced when Dobbins missed time, but his shoulder surgery adds risk to his role in Denver's backfield. Behind an elite O-line, he remains a secondary option to J.K. Dobbins.

Judkins participated in OTAs and minicamp after suffering a season-ending dislocated right ankle and fractured fibula in Week 16, and averaged 18.7 touches per game over Weeks 2-15 as a rookie with projections pointing to strong volume again in Todd Monken's run-heavy offense. However, Cleveland's line has more uncertainty than Tennessee's after rebuilding the entire group, with first-round pick Spencer Fano, Zion Johnson, Elgton Jenkins and Tytus Howard giving upside on paper but Teven Jenkins being the only projected starter to play meaningful snaps for Cleveland last season. Cleveland ranked 24th in run block win rate last season, the line needs time to jell, and the quarterback situation remains shaky with Deshaun Watson coming off multiple Achilles tears and Shedeur Sanders unproven. Judkins has volume appeal but his upside could be limited.

Williams remains the lead back after posting 1,533 total yards, 13 TDs and 15.5 fantasy PPG last season, even with Blake Corum taking on more work. The Rams ranked second in run block win rate and eighth in pass block win rate last season, with Rob Havenstein's retirement being significant but Warren McClendon playing well enough to keep this group in the top tier. Williams remains the priority and an excellent value in drafts.

Monangai forced his way into a legitimate role as a rookie, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with immense upside if Swift misses time. Chicago's O-line ranked fifth in run block win rate, led the league in pass block win rate and was exceptional in yards before contact, making both backs intriguing at their ADPs.

Jacobs remains the focal point of Green Bay's running game and is still projected to lead the backfield in touches in a productive offense. Before getting hurt last season, he averaged 21.1 touches and 19.6 fantasy PPG in his first nine games. Green Bay's line will benefit if Zach Tom stays healthy, but there are questions across the rest of the group after losing Rasheed Walker and Elgton Jenkins, moving Jordan Morgan back to left tackle and shifting Sean Rhyan to center after an uneven start. Aaron Banks also struggled in his first season with the Packers. Jacobs can still be viewed as a low-end RB1, but the shaky line and his off-field legal situation add more layers of risk for managers.

Cook led the league with 1,621 rushing yards, handled a career-high 309 carries and finished as the RB6 in fantasy PPG. Buffalo brings back most of a line that led the league in run block win rate and finished fourth in pass block win rate last season, with Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown keeping this group near the top despite losing David Edwards. The receiving role is still limited, but the rushing volume and TD upside in a Josh Allen-led offense keep him firmly in RB1 territory.

Dobbins projects as the Week 1 starter after clearly leading the Denver backfield when healthy last season, handling 153 carries to RJ Harvey's 50 in their 10 shared games while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Denver returns all five O-line starters with Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz anchoring a group that showed well in pass protection and the run game last season, raising the floor for the entire offense.

Achane has finished as a top-five fantasy RB in two consecutive seasons and brings game-breaking speed with minimal competition for touches, remaining the clear offensive centerpiece. However, Miami's O-line is a tricky situation with talent like Aaron Brewer and Patrick Paul showing progress, plus first-rounder Kadyn Proctor giving the Dolphins a powerful interior piece, but the rest of the group remains unsettled especially after Jonah Savaiinaea struggled badly as a rookie. Miami has a new coach, a new QB in Malik Willis and no longer has the same Mike McDaniel scheme that helped fuel Achane's receiving production. He is still RB1 level because of talent and volume, but the shaky O-line and possible receiving dip make him riskier than his past production suggests.

Montgomery is projected to lead the Houston backfield in touches and gives the Texans a physical runner who can help near the goal line. However, he's coming off career lows in touches, yardage and fantasy PPG. Houston finished last in run block win rate last season, ranked 22nd in rushing yards despite being 13th in attempts and ranked near the bottom of the league in yards before contact. The unit has more talent after adding Wyatt Teller, Braden Smith and first-round rookie Keylan Rutledge, but Rutledge is transitioning from college guard to NFL center, which could take time and adds risk. Montgomery is comfortable as an RB3/flex in line with his ADP, but the shaky line could lower his ceiling.

Swift surpassed 1,300 yards from scrimmage in both seasons with Chicago and finished as the RB17 in fantasy PPG last season. Chicago ranked fifth in run block win rate, led the league in pass block win rate and was exceptional in yards before contact, with Joe Thuney remaining an elite guard, Darnell Wright ascending and Jonah Jackson playing well. If center and left tackle hold up, this unit could finish among the league's best, giving Chicago's RBs a real fantasy boost.

Corum has become one of the best insurance RBs in fantasy after averaging 5.1 yards per carry last season in Los Angeles's elite O-line environment, which ranked second in run block win rate and eighth in pass block win rate.

Featured in dynasty trade analysis section; the source poses the question of whether now is the time to trade for TreVeyon Henderson, indicating actionable dynasty trade consideration.

Bears pass catcher being analyzed for draft value and positioning relative to teammates Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland; all three are being drafted close together, and the source explains how to approach them in terms of best value, riskiest, and safest options.

Named among players to monitor for injury recovery and 2026 prospects; the source details players recovering from injuries and their prospects for this season.

Bears pass catcher being analyzed for draft value and positioning relative to teammates Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland; all three are being drafted close together, and the source explains how to approach them in terms of best value, riskiest, and safest options.

Bears pass catcher being analyzed for draft value and positioning relative to teammates Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III; all three are being drafted close together, and the source explains how to approach them in terms of best value, riskiest, and safest options.

Subject of trade analysis examining fantasy impact on Eagles and Patriots rosters; the source provides analysis of all Eagles and Patriots players affected by the A.J. Brown trade deal.

Marks is going 42nd among running backs and is expected to maintain a meaningful role in Houston as a change-of-pace and passing-down back. His potential spike in receiving work will better use his skill set, making him a relative value for the price tag in PPR leagues. He was a considerably better receiving back in the eight games he played behind Nick Chubb to begin last season, averaging 5.2 fantasy points per game on passing plays with a 20.8% target share, compared with 2.7 and 12.6% after he took over as the starter.

Odunze offers big-time red zone appeal, leading the Bears in end zone opportunities with 11 looks over 12 games during his sophomore effort. He's coming off the board in the eighth round at ADP 73.9. While he could flirt with WR2 fantasy numbers, he's likely not to finish inside the top 15 given Colston Loveland's tight end dominance in Chicago's offense.