NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Wednesday, May 6, 2026

A.J. Barner and other tight ends in this tier should not be drafted in regular redraft leagues; they are waiver wire options better suited for Underdog Best Ball formats where roster depth forces late-round tight end selections.

T.J. Hockenson looks straight-up washed; he averaged 1.14 yards per route and 15% team target share last season, indicating he wasn't even able to draw targets despite poor quarterback play, forcing early-season drops in redraft leagues.

Chigoziem Okonkwo showed upside at the end of last year and benefits from being on a Commanders team with limited weaponry and good quarterback play, creating opportunity for target volume.

Schultz was tight end 15 in PPG last season but is entering his age 30 season with a declining production trend. He hasn't averaged more than 11 fantasy points per game since 2021 when he was a Dallas Cowboy, signaling sustained decline.

Henry has been a top 16 tight end in PPG for three straight seasons, but expectations are that the Eagles have A.J. Brown and drafted a tight end in round three, creating competition for targets and threatening his role.

Johnson had his first season in his NFL career with over 10 fantasy points per game, but now faces additional competition with Jordan Akins coming in, threatening his role and target share.

Likely signed with the New York Giants at age 26 but has never finished higher than tight end 20 in PPG despite waiver wire hype following the opening night Chiefs-Ravens game. He now steps into a decent situation with Malik Nabers and limited competition, but his market value exceeds his actual fantasy production potential given his ceiling-limited history.

Andrews finished tight end 24 in PPG last season with 7.7 fantasy points per game, 1.3 yards per route, and 6 yards per target—all career lows by a significant margin. His efficiency metrics have collapsed, signaling a sustained decline in production.

Goedert had a career year as tight end six in PPG last season, but the production was driven entirely by touchdown regression. From 2019–2024, his receptions averaged 4.9–5.1 per game and targets averaged 3.7–4.6 per game; over the past three seasons, receiving yards per game actually declined. His career-high touchdowns before 2025 was five (in 2019), but he scored 11 last season. With targets and receptions flat and yards declining, regression is inevitable. Philadelphia also drafted an athletic tight end in round two of the 2025 NFL Draft, which will further limit Goedert's opportunities.

Kincaid is extremely difficult to rank due to snap count limitations and injury concerns. He played only 38% of snaps per game with Buffalo last year and ran just 16 routes per game. Early offseason reports indicate his injury will continue limiting him in 2027, and he apparently didn't undergo corrective surgery. Despite strong efficiency metrics—over 3 yards per route and over 11 yards per target—his limited field time makes it hard to trust him for consistent production.

Kelce is extremely difficult to rank and may be too low in current rankings. With Patrick Mahomes healthy, Kelce was tight end seven in PPG last season at 1.85 yards per route run—higher than his 2024 rate. While age discount is warranted (he'll be 37), historical data shows only Antonio Gates and Mercedes Lewis produced anything at age 36 in the past 20 years, and neither finished with 5+ PPG at age 37. However, the case can be made that age doesn't matter given his GOAT-tier status, and he should be prioritized over Ferguson, Gaston, and Kittle if Mahomes stays healthy.

Kittle tore his Achilles on January 11th; the average recovery timeline for torn Achilles is longer than 9 months, creating a very real chance he won't return to fantasy football until after Thanksgiving. In standard leagues without IR, he is effectively undraftable and should be targeted off waivers. In leagues with IR (ESPN, Yahoo), he can be drafted and stashed for playoff upside. Before injury, he was tight end three in fantasy points per game at 14.68 PPG. Draft value is highly dependent on league settings; in Underdog drafts where all money is up for grabs in weeks 15–17, he may be worth targeting due to playoff upside.

In games where CeeDee Lamb played, Ferguson averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game and finished as tight end 18; when Lamb was absent, Ferguson averaged 17.7 points per game and was tight end two. This demonstrates Ferguson's fantasy value is heavily dependent on Lamb's health status.

Ferguson's production is heavily dependent on CeeDee Lamb's availability. In games without Lamb, Ferguson averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game and was TE2 in fantasy. In games with Lamb, he averaged 9.6 PPG and was TE18. This means you are essentially drafting Ferguson as a contingency play for potential injuries to Lamb or Dak Prescott, not for his standalone value.

There is a very real chance Njoku signs with the Los Angeles Chargers, which would significantly impact the tight end landscape. If this happens, Arron Dykes would be 'absolutely nuked' in terms of target share, while additional targets would open up for the Chargers offense. This pending move creates uncertainty for Njoku's own role and for downstream tight end values.

If David Njoku signs with the Los Angeles Chargers, Dykes would be 'absolutely nuked' in terms of target share and opportunity. His current role as the Chargers' primary tight end is contingent on Njoku remaining elsewhere, making him a high-risk fade if the Njoku signing materializes.

LaPorta, 25 years old, has been a top-10 tight end in fantasy for three straight seasons (TE3 in rookie year, TE9 last season, TE7 in 2025). His target share has been capped at only 18.6% last year and 17% the year before (21% in rookie season), suggesting contingent upside if a wide receiver like Amon-Ra St. Brown gets injured. He remains a consistent, safe option in a good offense despite not being flooded with targets.

Pitts was TE5 in PPG last year at 12.4 PPG with a 22.7% team target share—his highest since 2022. He is clearly the third name in the Falcons offense behind Drake London and Bijan Robinson. Despite uncertain quarterback play (Michael Penix's NFL efficiency is concerning; Tua would be preferable), Pitts is only 25 years old and will be playing for his contract, creating upside. His week 15 explosion (45 points) demonstrates ceiling potential. Geno Smith is excited about the overall upside for a player still only 25 years old.

Fannin improved from 10.7 PPG (first half) to 12.6 PPG (second half), reaching TE6 in second half. In four games without David Njoku, he posted 26% team target share and ranked TE4 in target share despite being only 21 years old. Age-21 comps to Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and David Njoku suggest elite historical precedent. However, his 2026 situation deteriorated significantly: coaching staff changed (uncertain impact), Deshaun Watson is the worst quarterback in the NFL and has torn his Achilles twice since last season, and the Browns drafted two wide receivers (Casey Conceição in round one, Denzel Boston in round two) adding target competition. Despite strong underlying metrics, the quarterback and receiver additions create substantial headwinds.

Kraft was TE4 in PPG (14.5 PPG) before tearing his ACL in week 9, posting 33 fantasy points the week prior. With Romeo Dobbs and Donteavian Wicks departed, target competition decreased. However, ACL recovery timeline of nine months brings him right to season start, creating uncertainty for week 1 availability. Geno Smith likes Kraft's ceiling for tournament play (weeks 15–17) but cautions against relying on him for week 1 in regular leagues due to recovery timeline risk.

Warren fell from TE6 in PPG (first 13 weeks with Daniel Jones) to TE24 in PPG (final four weeks without Jones), showing massive Jones-dependency but also upside when healthy. With Michael Pittman Jr. departed and minimal target competition (only Josh Downs and Alec Pierce remain), Warren has ceiling upside and a potential TE10 floor as a rookie. Geno Smith argues the floor is higher than ceiling comparisons suggest, and the offense should improve with Pittman's departure opening targets.

Loveland emerged dramatically in final four games of rookie season with 10, 13, 15, and 10 targets, averaging 12–13 targets per game; posted 21 and 25 fantasy points in weeks 17–18, then 15 targets and 137 yards vs. Green Bay and 10 targets vs. Los Angeles in playoffs. With DJ Moore's departure, target share should expand further. Age-21 comps to Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Cole Kmet suggest elite ceiling. Geno Smith says Loveland is 'set up to absolutely smash.'

Loveland was a top-10 pick who produced nothing through most of his rookie season, taking zeros in lineups through week 5. However, he erupted in the final four games of 2025 with 10, 13, 15, and 10 targets (averaging 12–13 targets per game), posting 21 PPG in week 17, 25 PPG in week 18, then 15 targets and 137 yards vs. Green Bay and 10 targets vs. Los Angeles in playoffs. With DJ Moore's departure, target share should expand further. At only 21 years old, Geno Smith compares him to 21-year-old Rob Gronkowski, 21-year-old Aaron Hernandez, and 21-year-old Cole Kmet, suggesting elite ceiling. Geno Smith says Loveland is 'set up to absolutely smash.'

McBride is ranked TE2 with back-to-back seasons averaging over 9 targets per game. He posted a massive leap from 2024 to 2025, jumping from 15.5 PPG to 18.5 PPG, primarily driven by finally scoring touchdowns once Jacoby Brissett took over as Cardinals QB. However, Geno Smith notes his 2026 situation has gotten 'sneaky worse' with Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson representing serious target competition, and passing volume is expected to decline as the Cardinals rebuild their running back room (they abandoned the run in 2025 due to RB injuries, forcing 50+ pass attempts weekly). The speaker sees downside risk from reduced volume and potential QB efficiency regression from Brissett.

Despite a disappointing 2025 season marked by early-season injury (weeks 2–4 under 10 PPG, missed weeks 5–7) and poor offensive context with Geno Smith and an incompetent Raiders coaching staff, Bowers still averaged 14.5 PPG and finished as TE2. For 2026, Geno Smith ranks him TE1 due to significant improvements: upgraded from Geno Smith to Fernando Mendoza at QB, only 23 years old, minimal target competition (Jalen Nailor is the only offensive addition), and projected 27–28% team target share at tight end. The efficiency gains from better QB play and offensive context should substantially improve on his respectable 2025 PPG.

Barner is grouped with other tight ends in this range that the analyst would not draft in regular redraft leagues, recommending they be left on the waiver wire.

Hockenson looks "straight-up washed" after averaging just 1.14 yards per route and 15% team target share last season, indicating he wasn't even able to draw targets despite potential quarterback play excuses.

If the Chargers offense explodes, Justin Herbert is positioned to benefit most; also has a solid floor as a reliable fantasy option as long as his offensive line stays healthy.

Chargers have been linked to David Njoku in recent reports, potentially adding another tight end option to the offense.

Reports suggest he could be available for week one, but analyst is not buying that timeline, creating uncertainty around his availability.

Had insane touchdown efficiency in 2024 but production matched usage in 2025, with contract extension making him a true workhorse back with upside potential.

Valued correctly at RB5 range and current ADP, properly priced after a contract extension made him a workhorse.

Not exciting but reliable slot receiver who will remain involved in the Bills offense.

Analyst likes Dalton Kincaid as a reliable tight end option in the Bills offense.

Comes in five or six spots overvalued based on current ADP, with concerns about the Bills' run-leaning offense limiting his upside.

Unlikely to reach the 25-26% target share he had in previous seasons; expected to see only 20-22% of targets in the Bills' run-leaning offense under Joe Brady.

Was 60th among 76 wide receivers with 50+ targets in yards per route run, 55th in PFF receiving grade, 35th in fantasy points separation score, and 37th in win rate.

Steamed up to WR27 on Underdog despite concerns about his current ability, posting career lows in receiving grade and yards per route run in two straight seasons.

Available seven spots lower than McMillan with potentially higher ceiling outcome due to superior quarterback play with Baker Mayfield and a better offense.

Could smash this year if Joe Burrow stays healthy, offering better value than McMillan at a similar ADP.

Had 100 receptions last year and has strong potential in the Kellen Moore offense as long as he stays healthy.

Could be in store for an awesome season when A.J. Brown is traded, offering significant upside at a similar ADP to McMillan.

Has not reached 190 passing yards per game in any of his three NFL seasons and averages 6.0 yards per pass attempt, ranking 36th among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, limiting his receivers' upside.

Got hurt last year, receiving a pass from the bust discussion due to injury rather than performance concerns.

Failed miserably as a second round selection in redraft, exemplifying the risk of early-round year-two wide receiver picks.

Failed miserably as a one-two turn type selection in redraft, serving as a cautionary example of year-two wide receiver busts.

No longer viewed as a foundational dynasty piece like he was a year ago, representing a significant downgrade in dynasty value.

Can be acquired 13 picks lower than Bucky Irving, offering better value as an upside running back option if healthy.

Identified as an upside player to target if healthy, offering potential breakout opportunity in the running back range.

Adams was the Rams' goal line offense, with Stafford using quick dropbacks and slants or fades to Adams inside the 5-yard line rather than handing off to Kyren Williams, a role that was super effective and likely to continue.

Adams had 14.9 expected receiving touchdowns last year (5.7 more than any other WR), led with 27 end zone targets (12 more than the next receiver), and 44 red zone targets (5 more than any other receiver).

Adams caught 14 touchdown passes in 14 games last year, his first season as a Ram, and the Rams made no significant wide receiver additions in the draft, maintaining his role.

Adams is WR26 in Underdog ADP but WR17 in half-PPR rankings, making him probably the most undervalued wide receiver based on projections versus ADP.

Kelce is another year older and on the decline at this point, nearing the end of his career, which benefits Rashee Rice's target share.

Rice is set to become a free agent in 2027 and Kansas City is likely to resign him based on their offseason moves, providing stability and motivation for a strong 2026 season.

Despite back-to-back lower body injuries ending his seasons, Rice did not have injury issues in college and is not more injury-prone than any other high-volume wide receiver, making him a buy on injury discount.

Rice is ranked WR7 in projections but WR8 in ADP overall, yet comes in as the 11th overall player in projections while being 20th in ADP overall, representing significant undervaluation.

Rice is projected to see 25% of the Chiefs' targets again this season, which is good enough value at his current ADP cost.

Rice controlled targets for the Chiefs consistently: 31.5% target share in 3 full games in 2024, and 24% target share over his final 10 games as a rookie, demonstrating a pattern of high target volume.

In his 8 games last year, Rice had a 26.5% target share and played a huge red zone role with 19 red zone targets (7th most among WRs), and was 4th among receivers in expected receiving touchdowns.

Rashee Rice is a target hog playing with Patrick Mahomes, with Kansas City making no significant additions to the pass-catching core this offseason, positioning him as a strong ADP value.

Jacobs has caught 36 passes in back-to-back seasons and has even caught a couple of touchdown passes in Green Bay, providing solid receiving production alongside his rushing volume.

As long as Josh Jacobs is healthy, he will be a workhorse back on a good team with big touchdown upside, especially in half-PPR formats like Underdog, making him five to six spots undervalued at RB14.

Through week 10 last year, Jacobs was RB5 in half-PPR points per game and RB3 in expected half-PPR points per game with 18 carries and 3.8 targets per game, and the Packers made no significant backfield additions this offseason.

Jacobs was RB7 and RB9 in half-PPR points per game over the last two seasons but is going much later in ADP, representing significant undervaluation.

Jacobs is going off the board as RB14 but is undervalued, with 28 rushing touchdowns over the last 2 years and near the top of the league in expected rushing touchdowns and carries inside the 5-yard line.

Drake May has posted back-to-back seasons with at least 420 rushing yards, with potential for that number to tick up in 2026.

Despite facing a tougher schedule in 2026, May should see increased pass attempts as the Patriots play more competitive games and from behind, offsetting any efficiency decline.

May finished QB3 in fantasy points per game in his second NFL season with a mediocre supporting cast, and the additions of Romeo Dobbs and likely A.J. Brown (75% probability) will significantly improve his weapons.

Drake May led the NFL in completion rate, completion rate over expected, and yards per pass attempt (8.9, 17th best in NFL history), finished QB3 in passing touchdowns, and provided rushing production (3rd in attempts, 4th in yards, 8th in TDs).

Drake May is QB7 in ADP despite finishing QB3 last year and ranking QB3 in current projections, making him one of the best values if targeting elite quarterbacks early in drafts.

Watson could end up with 12-13 touchdown catches if things go well, and potentially 120 targets if the Packers commit more to passing, drawing parallels to George Pickens' 2024 usage.

Watson posted career bests in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run last season while ranking top-6 among 76 qualifying wide receivers in both metrics, and another year removed from his January 2025 ACL tear could unlock another level to his game.

With Romeo Doubs (85 targets, 26 red zone targets, 10 end zone targets) departing, Watson should become a virtual full-time player in the Packers offense, clearing the path for him to be the clear top option among Green Bay's wide receivers.

Watson is ranked WR20 in half-PPR projections but WR29 in Underdog Best Ball ADP, representing significant undervaluation. He could set career highs in volume while remaining an efficient player and big-time touchdown scorer.

The outlook for Jonah Coleman is not great as he is likely to be part of a three-way committee in the backfield.

Jonah Coleman finds himself in a crowded backfield with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, making it difficult for him to secure a lead role in year one.

Eli Stowers is likely to be a situational receiving tight end and may not see significant playing time in his first year due to the presence of Dallas Goddard.

Chris Bell's recovery from an ACL tear may hinder his ability to contribute in his rookie season, making him a less favorable option.