0:00All of these players are priced correctly in ADP that they could end up becoming smash picks and helping you win in fantasy this season.
0:25I'm Theo Gramlich of Fantasy Football Daily right here on the Fantasy Points Podcast Network. When we start talking about identifying sleepers at other
0:33positions, you know, you get into a conversations about sleeper running backs, but often times the running back position, you need an injury. Sometimes a running back
0:42breaks through from a competition and ends up hitting, but a lot of times you're paying for those players. Wide receiver is the same way. It's very
0:49difficult for us to find a wide receiver three that's going to lead their team in fantasy scoring. Almost always it's wide
0:56receiver one, wide receiver two. Those players are priced correctly this time of year. It's an easier position for fantasy managers to get right. And then
1:04the quarterback position, of course, that's a position where you can find edge picks. You can find players that were drafted as QB2s and hit in major
1:13ways. We'll cover the quarterback position in upcoming weeks right here on this channel, but the tight end position is an interesting one. Tight end is one
1:21where you go into it, you look at the board and you say, "Oh, that makes sense." A lot of guys at the top makes
1:25complete sense. And we got spoiled over the years where so many years of like Travis Kelce dominating the position became like an easy click. You want that
1:35early tight end, you take Kelce, and you sort of forget about it. Now as we've moved on the last couple years, the last
1:41couple years you've actually seen some incredible tight end hits at the position.
1:46We go back to the 2022 season. 2022 we saw this in really strong season from Evan Engram. Go to 2023, that season was even crazier at the
1:57tight end spot. You end up with Sam LaPorta finishing as the tight end one overall, completely being one of the best picks you could have made at ADP
2:08the entire season.
2:09That also coincided with David Njoku taking over and being a real fantasy playoffs league winner.
2:18He was also an incredible tight end value that year in ADP, and that was of course Trey McBride. Trey McBride having
2:27the incredible breakout season after Zach Ertz went down, Trey McBride ended up being like a league winner for the entire second half of the season. And
2:34now look, Trey McBride last year was a league winner, and this year is costing you like a first-round pick in FFPC,
2:41second-round pick in NFC, underdog, DraftKings fantasy.
2:45Then we get to 2024, and 2024, we saw Brock Bowers drafted as like the tight end 11, tight end 12. He ends up as the
2:56tight end one overall, breaks the record for receptions in a season by a rookie, ends up absolutely crushing it, breaks Puka Nacua's reception total record, and
3:07does it at the tight end position. And that very same year, Jonnu Smith was not even drafted as a tight end two. He ends
3:15up finishing as the tight end four, has an exceptional season in Miami. So, we're able to find it multiple seasons.
3:22You go back further, you know, anybody who sort of had Dalton Schultz his first year breaking through with Dallas was a
3:28major ADP win. Jake Ferguson, the first year he was drafted as Dallas's starting tight end, major ADP win. Like you go
3:35back to the tight end position and you're able to identify guys that hit way above their ADP weight class. And that's what we're looking to do today.
3:43Let's start out by going with an honorable mention player.
3:47Let's talk about Eli Stowers. And Eli Stowers, of course, is going to have impediments in his way when you're talking about fantasy football success.
3:56He's a second-round pick.
3:58Um and you have Dallas Goedert clearly ahead of him.
4:02But the situation is not completely different than what we saw for two major hits over the last couple years. You had
4:09the Trey McBride season where he starts out the year behind a former Philadelphia Eagle in Zach Ertz. Ertz ends up getting banged up after starting
4:17the year out on like a highly targeted season.
4:20Uh and then McBride takes over and just rips and runs his way into a easy top six, top seven tight end finish. Might
4:27have been top five that that first year.
4:30But on a per game basis over the second half of the year was challenging for the tight end one overall.
4:34Eli Stowers' season is or situation is also not completely dissimilar to Albert Okwuegbunam last year. Look at Albert Okwuegbunam last year. He was a day-two
4:44pick, much like Eli Stowers, was a very impressive collegiate performer at the tight end position as a pass catcher, move tight end, just like Eli Stowers.
4:55Albert Okwuegbunam gets drafted to Cleveland, has a veteran tight end boxing him out in David Njoku, just like Eli Stowers this year with Dallas
5:04Goedert. And then, of course, David Njoku's banged up. Albert Okwuegbunam takes a huge step forward.
5:11And Dallas Goedert, I think, is fine. I don't think Dallas Goedert's a player you need to fade because of Eli Stowers.
5:17But if anything happens in terms of an injury with Dallas Goedert, Eli Stowers becomes like an instant tight end one in
5:23fantasy football.
5:24You also have the AJ Brown effect where AJ Brown's going to get traded probably right around June 1. You could be
5:30watching this show and AJ Brown's already traded. Um and it we're thinking it's going to be Quez Watkins. I know I'm a big Quez Watkins
5:37stan and I think Quez Watkins is going to have a really big role in this offense. There's others here at Fantasy
5:40Points who don't like Quez Watkins this year and are fading him at ADP. Wherever you you feel about >> points who don't like McKayle Harmon
5:46this year and are fading him at ADP.
5:49Wherever you fall with McKayle Harmon, he's a little bit of a range of outcomes guy where we know DeVonta Smith is going
5:55to do his thing and get a very high target share, a lot of first read rate looks.
6:00But when you start going down the target pecking order, could there be an opportunity for more 12 personnel and more two tight end sets
6:07if McKayle Harmon struggles?
6:09I think that there's a non-zero chance of that. So, I think Eli Stowers is a really fun best ball pick right now, but
6:14the has some contingent upside in redraft.
6:17Go with my next tight end here.
6:20And when we're referencing tight end ADP, I'm going to go most expensive sort of at the top here, but none of the players
6:26I'm talking about are tight end ones right now. We're talking about all players that are available to you after tight end 13 overall. And
6:36let's go ahead and and start out with Terrance Ferguson here. Terrance Ferguson right out the five hole.
6:42And when we talk about Terrance Ferguson, this is a little bit of a theoretical one. This is a little bit of
6:48a dark horse player, but he's even cheaper than Eli Stowers right now. Eli Stowers is the tight end 29 on Underdog,
6:56very similar ADP on DraftKings, very similar in FFPC. Terrance Ferguson is the tight end 30. And for good reason.
7:04Didn't do anything last year. Had 11 total catches. Had three touchdowns. So, like great touchdown rate, but terrible catch total. But with Terrance Ferguson,
7:16we have elite athleticism at a position where athleticism matters athleticism matters a ton.
7:23And you have fantastic draft capital.
7:25Was a second round pick last year. Now you look at the LA Rams. And the LA Rams have this massive room of tight ends
7:32where Colby Parkinson was really good last year, had like eight touchdown catches. Tyler Higbee's been there forever. I mean, Tyler Higbee feels like
7:41he's been on the Rams for like 20 years at this point. Then you have second-round pick out of Ohio State, who the team seems to
7:48like as well. But when you look at what the Rams do with all this heavy pa- heavy packages, heavy personnel, all
7:55this 12 personnel, all this 13 personnel, using two tight ends, using three tight ends, Terrance Ferguson's going to be on the field a ton this
8:03year, and I think the team is going to trust him a lot more than they did in year one. Then you hear the rumblings
8:09from the beat reporters that Terrance Ferguson looks like the tight end one on this team. When we factor in that the LA
8:16Rams were second, or excuse me, first overall in terms of touchdown catches by tight ends this past year, and they were fifth
8:24overall in terms of targets to the tight end position, is that a finished product? Is that going to be something where it's going
8:30to be like four tight ends who all get usage, and that's just the way it goes, or is there a chance that the Rams are
8:37going to streamline things, and they're going to use a lot more tight ends in heavy sets, but the targets might be
8:43consolidated to one particular tight end? It's not out of the question that Terrance Ferguson becomes fantasy viable this year, and I'm able to get him at
8:52the tight end 30 price tag. I think he makes for a great best ball pick. So, we've got Eli Stowers and Terrance
9:00Fergan Ferguson in the honorable mention category here. Uh both those guys, incredible athleticism, a ton of youth, and both second-round picks. Let's go a
9:09little bit higher up in ADP, and let's talk about our next player, and that's going to be Brenton Strange. And Brenton
9:16Strange last year had 46 catches, 540 receiving yards, and three touchdown grabs, but he did it in 12 games. And
9:27with Brenton Strange, we saw him start out the year red hot, was a big waiver wire pick up in a lot of uh formats,
9:35started out the year sort of as a tight end you could use, missed time, and then came back. But I look at Brenton Strange
9:42and I say, is this a player that could benefit from more experience on the field? We've seen back-to-back seasons where he's had 40-plus receptions. Could
9:52this number trend up uh in a major way for him in his fourth season in the league?
9:58It's an easy player to sort of make a fade argument for. He's at tight end 20 overall, so he's not like dirt cheap
10:05like a like a Terrance Ferguson. You're still having to take Brenton Strange ahead of some big names where ahead of a
10:12big names that have produced for us in fantasy over the past couple years.
10:16You're having to take him ahead of Juwan Johnson who was pretty good last year in New Orleans, T.J. Hockenson who had a
10:21bunch of great years in Detroit and Minnesota, and then Dalton Schultz who had a really good seasons in Dallas, and then last year was pretty good in
10:29Houston. So there's a number of names I have to take Brenton Strange ahead of, but I think if you look at the
10:35Jacksonville offense with Liam Cohen last year, an offense that we were very enthusiastic about, an offense that could raise multiple ADP tides this
10:44year, then you look at the lack of clarity with the wide receiver room where do I think Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. and Zay Jones and
10:51Christian Kirk all make for better bets to lead Jacksonville in targets than Brenton Strange? Absolutely. But those three wide receivers could cannibalize
10:59one another another at least in a little bit of sense, and Brenton Strange has upside to uh profit off of this. If he
11:07becomes a little bit more of a consistent target, and the wide receivers become a little bit more of a spread out and we're we're distributing
11:14the ball to multiple wide receivers multiple weeks, then I think Strange can end up being somewhat of a Tucker Kraft-like bet in this offense. So when
11:23it comes to Brenton Strange, we have second-round draft capital. He was a player that the Jaguars took in the second round even when they had Evan
11:29Engram on the roster, and I think he makes for a fun bet, especially if you're trying to build correlation with Trevor Lawrence. He's
11:37cheaper than any of the wide receivers and he has a chance to have a career year this year. Would it be shocking if
11:44Brenton Strange had 65 receptions, 800 receiving yards, and seven touchdown grabs? I don't think so and I'm able to get him down in a very cheap tight end
11:54range, tight end 20 overall. So, he comes in at number five.
11:59Number four for me, this is a really, really fun one and a lot of people this time of year and shout out to the people who
12:06specifically focus on the tight end position. That's a tough pot. It's a tough position. I get it. You're like, you're not writing about running backs,
12:13you're not writing about quarterbacks, you're not writing about wide receivers, but I think people will overcomplicate things. Tight end's simple. Anybody who
12:21tells you differently, they're not really thinking about it right. Tight end's simple. Now, we don't always get it right, but it's a simple bet. If I
12:29can identify tight ends who are the number one or number two target in their passing game they have a great chance of being
12:36fantasy football relevant.
12:38The other tight ends who get a bunch of touchdown catches, that's a harder prediction to make. Touchdowns are harder for me to predict than targets
12:46and catches. So, again if you have conviction that a tight end will be the tight end one or the tight end two in their passing game, then you
12:55should draft them on your fantasy team.
12:57You should draft them in best ball, redraft, and you should trade for them in dynasty cuz they can make an impact
13:02um in terms of fantasy football this year. And one player who I think has an opportunity to be the number two target
13:08on his team is Chig Okonkwo of the Washington Commanders. Chig Okonkwo has had three straight years of 50-plus receptions on some pretty bad offenses
13:18in Tennessee. He also had a really exciting second half of his rookie year back in 2022 when Chig Okonkwo gained a
13:25lot of steam. The last 3 years been sort of a forgotten man. The The touchdown totals have been very, very low. One
13:32touchdown, two touchdowns, two touchdowns. But the reception totals have been stagnant have been have been really predictive. 54 catches, 52 catches, 56 catches.
13:43Now Chigga Okonkwo gets to go and play with the best quarterback that he's ever played with in Jayden Daniels in Washington. He also signed as a free
13:52agent to go to the Washington Commanders after being a Tennessee Titan. Chigga Okonkwo played at the University of Maryland. He gets an opportunity for a
14:00quasi homecoming. University of Maryland uh in College Park, Maryland and Washington Commanders play in Landover, Maryland. That's the same county. That's
14:08about a 15-minute drive. So you've got Chigga Okonkwo homecoming season. You've got Chigga Okonkwo in a situation where you got guys like Antonio Williams, Luke
14:18McCaffrey, uh Treylon Burks, Jaylen Lane. There's a chance that this argument that I'm making that Chigga Okonkwo could be the number two target earner goes down
14:29really heavily if Stefon Diggs ends up signing with the Washington Commanders.
14:34But if Chigga Okonkwo can avoid Stefon Diggs, I think that there's a chance that Chig ends up in the 70 reception range this
14:43year and you're able to get him as the tight end 19. It's not a massive leap forward for me to suggest he gets goes
14:52from 56 catches last year to 70 catches this year. That's not even more than one more reception a game. You also look at
15:01what Zach Ertz was able to accomplish and Zach Ertz I get it people are going to say yo Theo, Zach Ertz was a fantasy
15:06stud. But Zach Ertz was also very old and a veteran who had a ADP beating season uh in Jayden Daniels' rookie year
15:16back in 2024.
15:18So we could see it again with Chigga Okonkwo this year, Jayden Daniels year three, Chig Okonkwo a tight end to to
15:24bet on. And Chig Okonkwo again, tight end 19 overall in Underdog, the price is absolutely right. Going with my number three selection here. And a couple of
15:35weeks ago, this looked like one where I couldn't have even included him in a sleeper show, but it's a Quentin Johnston of the LA Chargers. And people
15:43are going to say, "Theo, slow your roll.
15:45This this guy's not a sleeper. I heard about him all off season. This was the player that's supposed to explode in
15:50year two." Well, the market is now pushing Quentin Johnston way down. So, before the NFL draft, Quentin Johnston was like the tight end nine, tight end
15:5810 in some of these Underdog drafts.
16:01Right now, Quentin Johnston, as of the very end of May, is the tight end 16 overall. A very low bar for him to cross, and I think a lot
16:12of the market is fading him because of the David Njoku signing. David Njoku is going to be 30 years old this year. And
16:20David Njoku certainly didn't look the part of a player that was going to bounce back in a major way. And anybody who's followed my content the
16:27last couple years, I mean, David Njoku's a player that I pounded the table for, but this one feels like David Njoku's on
16:34the field in heavy packages. Quentin Johnston has an opportunity to be the move tight end with juice. Also, we think that it's going to be a huge Ladd
16:43McConkey season. I know a lot of people at at Fantasy Points are on that train.
16:47We think that Quentin Johnston could be an 80P winner. We think that Trey Harris could break through in times terms of
16:52year two.
16:54But again, just like Jacksonville, there's a chance that if one of those other two wide receivers doesn't establish themselves as like the number
17:00two target behind Ladd McConkey, there's a chance that Quentin Johnston could do it. We look at Quentin Johnston's uh stats from last year, 660 receiving
17:11yards in a small sample size, that's more than David Njoku in almost every season of David Njoku's career. I think David Njoku had that many
17:20receiving yards in a season like two or three times max. Oronde Gadsden did it as a rookie.
17:25Oronde Gadsden last year, John Harbaugh and Greg Roman were comparing to Mark Andrews. So, like they have a lot of faith in Oronde Gadsden that I think
17:34maybe the fantasy community might be fading him a little bit. Then you look at Mike McDaniel who's been sort of a
17:38tight end whisperer. Last year we saw with Darren Waller who came off the couch and was really good. The year before that or excuse me, the year
17:47before that was Jonnu Smith. So, you've seen in Miami the tight end position producing for us in a major way. Darren
17:54Waller last year huge waiver wire add and the year before that Jonnu Smith was one of the best waiver wire adds at the
18:00tight end position. Now you're able to get Oronde Gadsden as the tight end 16.
18:06So, I can draft a tight end that I'm very comfortable with that maybe doesn't need a theoretical boost and and a
18:11narrative behind him and then I can draft Gadsden as my tight end two. And there's a chance that I have a major ADP
18:18win and a possible flex play if Gadsden has the sim- similar usage that we saw with Waller last year and Jonnu Smith
18:26the year before. So, Gadsden we know he can make plays down field. We know that he has spike week ability with Justin
18:34Herbert cuz we actually saw it last year. The sample size is small, but anybody who looks at sort of the tape of
18:40those smash weeks for Gadsden, the guy looks like he's good at football and I'm able to get him at a very cheap cost.
18:47Going up here um to the number two option here. I'm actually this player is the tight end 13. So, technically I'm
18:54flipping it around on one and two.
18:57But it's Dalton Kincaid at the number two spot.
19:00And Dalton Kincaid we saw as a rookie have a 73 catch season. Then steamed up in a major way in ADP in 2024 and
19:10couldn't justify it. So, it's been like two straight years uh 2023 Dalton Kincaid sets the Buffalo Bills record for most catches by a rookie tight end
19:19in a season with 73. Again, only has two touchdown grabs that that year.
19:25But, a disappointment in terms of overall production in term like excuse me, a disappointment in terms of the overall ceiling case because people
19:33thought maybe the touchdown equity would be a little bit higher, but he still had 73 catches as a rookie. That's really
19:40really good for a rookie tight end.
19:42Kincaid of course was a first-round pick in the NFL draft. Then you get to 2024, a dud at ADP. Only 44 catches, was
19:51drafted highly, a lot of people building Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid stacks, and Dalton Kincaid failed in sort of a major way in 2024.
20:002025 last year, banged up. And Kincaid still had five touchdown catches, which was good.
20:07But, Kincaid last year was also dealing with a PCL injury, which didn't require off-season surgery, but now he's fully healthy. Kincaid has come out and said
20:19that this is the best he's felt in his entire career. He feels really really good in terms of health. You've got
20:25Dalton Kincaid who is probably the number two target in this passing game to the newly acquired DJ Moore. DJ Moore is steamed up to like the fourth round
20:35on DraftKings. I get it. There's a ton of DJ Moore enthusiasm, and I think that the team is also feeling it in terms of
20:41the DJ Moore enthusiasm. The beat reporters are on it. But, when I'm looking at the number two target in the passing game, I think this could be
20:48Kincaid's year where Dalton Kincaid could get back to those 91 targets he had as a rookie, and maybe build on this. This could be a Dalton Kincaid
20:58100-plus target season, and I'm able to get him in a cheap tight end range where he's going as the tight end 13.
21:06This might be the easiest uh it's ever been to draft Dalton Kincaid with enthusiasm. If also if you're building stacks, getting that correlation between
21:17Josh Allen and Kincaid is so much cheaper for me than getting correlation between Josh Allen and James Cook or Josh Allen and DJ Moore. So, Dalton
21:27Kincaid checks in for me at my number two sleeper breakout type tight end for 2026. And the number one, you guessed it, it's Isaiah Likely. And
21:38I'm going to continue talking about Isaiah Likely all off-season long, but Isaiah Likely is the tight end 14 right now on Underdog, right about the same in
21:47FFPC and NFFC.
21:50Isaiah Likely was brought over to New York from Baltimore. We've been waiting on the Isaiah Likely breakout season for quite some time. We've seen
21:59flashes whenever Mark Andrews was to go down with injuries, and Isaiah Likely would step up and have big-time production in multiple seasons in a very
22:09small sample size.
22:12Isaiah Likely still only 26 years old.
22:14There's room for him to run in his profile, and I think we're going to see it this year. And when I look at Isaiah
22:19Likely, his ability to to make plays off script when when you get into situations where Jackson Dart starts to scramble, I
22:27think that the two of those players are going to match up incredibly well.
22:32I would say that if Malik Nabers was fully healthy, Isaiah Likely would be my bet to be the number two target in New
22:38York for the entire season. I think there's a chance that Isaiah Likely could be a top five tight end in terms
22:45of targets this year, even with Malik Nabers fully healthy.
22:49Then you factor in that Malik Nabers is probably going to start the year out on the PUP list.
22:54So, with Isaiah Likely, I am going to have an opportunity to get Isaiah Likely off to a very fast start if Malik Nabers is going to miss time.
23:04And when I'm searching for huge ADP wins, I'd much rather have a player getting eight, nine, 10 targets at the tight end position early in the year
23:13than having to backload that production.
23:15I think that Isaiah Likely could give me a really fun head start to the season, and I think he's going to going to
23:21maintain that sort of presence in the passing game. I think Isaiah Likely is going to gain a lot of value in terms of
23:27dynasty, and I think when it comes to best ball win rates, redraft win rates, Isaiah Likely is going to be looked back
23:34on as a player that was a really good pick for you to make this year. And I'll say Isaiah Likely this year is the tight
23:40end 14 at ADP will be more expensive heading into the 2027 season. I don't even think that that's really a bold
23:47statement. I think Isaiah Likely is very good at football. He's a natural pass catcher, a natural move tight end, and we're going to see it this year in New
23:55York. Go ahead and draft yourself some Isaiah Likely. We'll see you soon.
