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NFL Futures Watch | Week 5

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 3 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Oct 6, 2026

Published

Tue, October 6, 2026

Player insights

Players mentioned

Topics

A.J. BrownDrake MayeJoe BurrowMack HollinsAaron RodgersBo NixBryce YoungCaleb WilliamsCase KeenumCeeDee LambDaniel JonesDeVonta SmithJa'Marr ChaseJalen Hurts

Player analysis

Player insights

A.J. Brown

NegativeInjury31:15

AJ Brown is missing for the Eagles; the source believes the team really misses him and that his absence, combined with offensive coordinator issues and Lane Johnson's retirement, contributes to the Eagles' poor offensive performance.

Insight page

PositiveRole42:01

AJ Brown is getting back in a couple of weeks and will be a huge boost to the Patriots offense. The source suggests this could be a buy opportunity for the Patriots soon.

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Aaron Rodgers

NegativeProjection25:55

Aaron Rodgers is not good at this point, per the source's assessment of the Steelers' quarterback situation; the team is neither good nor bad, but Rodgers' performance is a limiting factor.

Insight page

Bo Nix

NegativeProjection36:00

Bo Nix has looked terrible for the Broncos; he does not trust his reads and the offense has been awful, ranking 29th in the league in explosive plays with zero 100-yard rushers and just one 100-yard receiving game.

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Bryce Young

PositiveRole22:22

Bryce Young is balling right now for the Panthers; the source notes positive performance despite the team's overall struggles and injury issues on the offensive line and secondary.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveRole57:54

Caleb Williams is one of three different starting quarterbacks Ben Johnson has won with this season. Johnson has bagged wins with Williams, Tyson Bajant, and Case Keenum, which is a historic achievement.

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Case Keenum

PositiveRole57:54

Case Keenum is one of three different starting quarterbacks Ben Johnson has won with this season. Johnson has bagged wins with Caleb Williams, Tyson Bajant, and Keenum, which is a historic achievement.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveUsage50:48

CeeDee Lamb caught three more passes against Houston and continues to be a focal point of the Cowboys elite offense. The source notes the Cowboys have the fifth best points per drive through four games this century, comparable to the 2007 Patriots and 2018 Chiefs.

Insight page

Daniel Jones

NegativeProjection33:00

Daniel Jones showed some bad habits from his time in New York shining through against the Colts in London; the source notes the Commanders' defense was swarming him before the Colts got short fields.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeInjury29:15

DeVontae Smith is injured and unavailable for the Eagles; the source lists him among the team's mounting offensive injuries that have contributed to poor performance.

Insight page

Drake Maye

PositiveProjection39:30

Drake May made plays and got the job done for the Patriots against Buffalo, though he made a couple of mistakes; the source views this as a solid performance that saved the Patriots' season after poor starts.

Insight page

NegativeProjection39:47

Drake May still struggling; the Patriots offense was last in DVOA and is now 26th in DVOA. While May has made some big plays, the source worries about the offense's lack of weapons and questions what the offense looks like going forward.

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Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeInjury5:10

Jamar Chase got hurt on a third-and-17 play during the Bengals-Jaguars game, which would have been a long third down but instead resulted in a face mask penalty giving Cincinnati an automatic first down.

Insight page

Jalen Hurts

NegativeProjection31:15

Jalen Hurts is struggling and not running the ball; he has the lowest designed run rate of his career (excluding scrambles) at 1.3 attempts per game for 1.8 yards, which the source views as a major concern given that running is supposed to be in his skill set.

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Jaylen Waddle

NegativeRole38:00

Jalen Waddle was added to the Broncos' offense but hasn't provided the explosiveness expected; the source notes the Broncos added Waddle but still lack explosive plays, suggesting the offense's issues run deeper than personnel.

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Joe Burrow

PositiveProjection50:51

Joe Burrow is on pace for almost 5,000 yards with the same number of touchdowns as Trevor Lawrence so far. The source is buying Burrow at 4% for MVP at DraftKings Predict, believing he's at double the price of Lawrence with better stats. Burrow is projected to have an easy remaining schedule with only three more games against playoff teams (two Ravens, one Chiefs).

Insight page

NegativeProjection61:16

Joe Burrow's MVP odds are priced at 4%, reflecting low market probability of him winning the award this season.

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Jonathan Taylor

PositiveUsage33:00

Jonathan Taylor was heavily featured for the Colts in London against Washington, getting short fields and doing damage with the ball; the source notes this is how the Colts typically win games, but this approach won't work against every opponent.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeInjury50:50

Lamar Jackson injury helps Cincinnati's playoff chances and MVP stock. The source notes that if Lamar Jackson falls out of the MVP race by missing a game or two, it only helps the Bengals' division chances.

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Mack Hollins

NegativeRole39:50

Mack Hollins is mentioned alongside Efton Chisholm as part of the Patriots' limited receiving weapons; the source indicates these players cannot be counted on as reliable fantasy assets given the overall lack of offensive talent.

Insight page

NegativeRole40:00

Mack Hollins is among the Patriots' role players that the source suggests cannot be relied upon for consistent production; the offense needs more established weapons.

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Marcus Mariota

NegativeInjury33:00

Marcus Mariota got hurt in the Commanders' game against the Colts in London; the source notes that if he hadn't been injured, the Commanders' defense was swarming and the Colts were about to get run off the field.

Insight page

Michael Penix Jr.

PositiveProjection24:47

Michael Penix Jr. has been efficient in the Falcons' last two games, averaging 40 points per game with 459 yards and just one turnover (very early in the game) across two contests, demonstrating strong performance without key defensive pieces like AJ Terrell and James Pierce.

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Parker Washington

NegativeUsage5:35

Parker Washington hit a 40-yard catch down the sideline against the Bengals that would have iced the game, but stepped out of bounds by approximately an inch, stopping the clock and negating the play.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveValue56:12

Puka Nakua is 2% at DK Predict for Offensive Player of the Year, which the source considers a crazy price. He was top three last year, his pace is not far off this year despite missing two games, and if he continues to play and is back mostly healthy, the source thinks 2% is too low for a guy this good.

Insight page

Saquon Barkley

NegativeInjury29:15

Saquon Barkley is among the Eagles' mounting offensive injuries; the source lists him alongside DeVontae Smith, Zach Bond, and Grenard as key players missing, which has contributed to the team's poor performance and declining run game.

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Travis Hunter

PositiveUsage5:30

In man coverage against the Bengals, Travis Hunter allowed just one reception on six targets with one interception (called back on penalty), three pass breakups, and a 2.1 passer rating allowed; also juked T. Higgins out of his shoes on a notable play.

Insight page

Trey McBride

PositiveMatchup46:06

Trey McBride is expected to go crazy against the Lions this week. The source notes the Lions' lines are terrible against tight ends, making McBride a prime target in this matchup.

Insight page

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

854

0:00The Action Network Podcast No one, no one is offering you action like this.

0:04It's the gambling experience of a lifetime. It's my way of saying, I understand that, Mike.

0:09I know what you want, I know what you need.

0:12This is where you belong. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

0:16I'm Brandon Anderson, joined as I am every Tuesday with futures analyst Brandon Anderson for a deep dive into the futures market and more.

0:23Another NFL weekend in the books. As you can tell, I have I've been through it this past couple of days.

0:29The Bucs still have not won a game. Please tell me, Brandon, we are abandoning ship on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before we dive into today's show.

0:37Well, they play Thursday and I usually don't have to cover the Thursday game.

0:41So I'm at least like fleeing the ship for one week and then we'll see after that no more.

0:47Well, we will talk about the Bucs a little bit.

0:50But look, I'm doing a little better shape than you, if only because I at least did not go 0-21 on Sunday.

0:56We put that in the past. We won a game this week.

1:00We hit a couple props. We're back on track.

1:03All right. Well, we'll have we'll have Todd Bowles walk the plank some other time.

1:07Let's get into our buy or sell this week's market movers.

1:10This is where we hit the hottest stories. The biggest market shifts that we need to be aware of.

1:16Are you buying this? You buying or selling? What are you buying?

1:19You want to sell? Buy it. Time to sell us right now.

1:23We've got two three in one teams that folks seem to be comfortable falling in love with the three in one Jacksonville

1:29Jaguars, the three in one Chicago Bears. Are you buying or selling them as this year's darling sleepers?

1:35Yeah, look, the Bears, man, I've been really liking the Jets much this season, but man, you've heard the stat, I'm sure.

1:41But more first downs for the Bears than plays for the Jets is just an insane number.

1:46They're only the second time in history, more than triple them in yardage, almost triple in time of possession.

1:52I have to be a little sketchy on the Bears, though.

1:55They're sixth in defensive DVOA. Does that check out at all?

1:58Like, I know what just happened in that game, but that does not pass the eye test, the smell test.

2:04You can use all your senses and pass any of those tests.

2:08So I don't know about that. Dennis Allen is cooking on third down, but let's see some more.

2:13So they killed a bad Panthers defense. They scored three on the Vikings as a pretty much healthy Bears at that point.

2:20And now you beat up on the Eagles and the Jets, who we're going to get back to Eagles in a while.

2:26But I don't know if we've learned a whole lot about Chicago.

2:30I think to me, Jacksonville is the team that I'm much more willing to buy here.

2:34I want to talk about just a few of the plays from Sunday against the Bengals.

2:39So that game on the road against a pretty quality Bengals team that we all kind of agree like, OK, they're good this year.

2:46They're in this thing. Here are some plays that Jacksonville had called off by penalties.

2:51This is the team that I think was the least penalized team in the NFL last year.

2:56Opening play of the game, 47-yard kickoff return, called back in a hole.

2:59So there goes 50 yards right off the bat.

3:02Later, Travis Hunter intercepts the pass, 30-yard return, called back, roughing the passer.

3:06The Bengals get a field goal out of it instead of losing a down.

3:10Third and 17 on that drive is the Jamar Chase play.

3:13When he gets hurt, and it would have been a long third down instead of face mask another first down.

3:19So you're just piling on these huge plays. Bajal Toon scores two touchdowns that get taken off the board, one of them 44 yards.

3:26Later on, Jacksonville gets a fourth and one, a huge stop, and then they get a taunting penalty.

3:32So an automatic first down rather than a fourth and one stop.

3:35Wow, like near the end of the game, Parker Washington hits like a 40-yard catch down the sideline, and it looks like he's going to ice the game.

3:43Instead, he steps out of bounds by like an inch.

3:46It stops the clock, and you add all those things up.

3:50What's the point of all those? That's almost 200 yards of Jaguars stuff that got taken away from them by penalties, reverse calls, all that sort of thing.

3:58That's two touchdowns taken off the board. That's three defensive stops taken away.

4:02You lose that game. If that stuff happens to you on the road against the Bengals, you lose that game.

4:08And the Jaguars won anyway, and I think that is just what this team is now.

4:12It doesn't fit with what we think of this franchise, but they're buttoned up now.

4:17Liam Cohen has them doing the right stuff. They're just kind of good at everything.

4:21I don't think they're necessarily great at anything, but they don't really have a weak spot.

4:26Since the start of last season, 16-5 now, plus 189 point differential.

4:30Those are the best in the NFL other than the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

4:34That's pretty good class to be in. I just, you have to like Jacksonville.

4:38They're top six rushing and passing offense and defense by DVOA.

4:41This was the team out of all 32 that I felt like I had the least handle on before the season and ended up kind of staying away.

4:50I'm late to the party now, but I think Jacksonville looks as good as anyone.

4:54Well, I will say this is a team that I have been on from the beginning.

4:59The only, I don't make a lot of Super Bowl future bets.

5:02It's kind of the square way to make your futures earnings.

5:06But the one bet I made before the season was the Jaguars at 30-1.

5:10And it's exactly what you said. The perception of the franchise is overwhelming the quality of the team that they have and

5:16the level of play that Trevor Lawrence is producing.

5:19And what Liam Cohen, the positions he's putting Trevor Lawrence in to succeed.

5:23The other part of this is that Travis Hunter on the defensive side of the ball, they went 100% defense and it paid off big time.

5:30In man coverage, six targets, one reception allowed, one INT.

5:33They called it back, three pass breakups, a 2.1 passer rating allowed in man coverage.

5:38I mean, this guy has been, and he juked T.

5:41Higgins out of his shoes. I mean, you've got to get extra points for that.

5:45So this is a team I'm absolutely bought in on.

5:48Chicago, I'm with you. A little bit more sketchy.

5:51You have the rainstorm, the Jets. You know, there's a lot there where you go, okay, I might need to see a little bit more.

5:58But Ben Johnson, we'll talk about him a little bit later on.

6:02Uh, let's play a little bet, marry, kill our favorite childhood game.

6:05And I've got some doozies for you. The Owen for Texans, the Owen for bucks, the Owen for chargers.

6:11So we're going to pick one team to bet this week, one team to marry by investing in futures and one team that we're just completely done with.

6:19So you go ahead and get us started. I've got a list for you as well.

6:24I wonder how much they match up. Yeah. And wouldn't it be nice to just kill off all three of these teams?

6:30This is, these were teams that I liked or loved coming into the season.

6:34And then Owen for, you got to change off your priorities at some point.

6:39Only one Owen for team in history has made the playoffs, the 92 chargers.

6:43So not great. Now the Texans and Buccaneers by DVOA are two of the four best DVOA on four teams ever.

6:49Hang the banner. We did it. We're the best own four teams.

6:52They're 16th and 17th in DVOA. They're basically league average.

6:55That should be two and two. We're going to talk about all the two and two teams in a bit.

7:01They're not two and two. They're own four. By contrast, the chargers are 31st in DVOA with dead last offensively.

7:07That's what you're supposed to be. If you're own force.

7:10Now we're supposed to be if you're the chargers, but it's not great.

7:14Now here's the bad news for Texans and Bucs.

7:17If you look at that DVOA list, the other good top four, top five, own four teams, they won three, four and five games.

7:24So it turned out that maybe the metrics didn't match what was happening.

7:28Maybe the losses were going to keep piling up anyway.

7:30Houston has the third easiest remaining schedule at DVOA.

7:33The Bucs play the NFC South. So that speaks for itself.

7:36The chargers, we've talked about it. Third toughest schedule.

7:39So that kind of should lean you what direction as you're looking at things here.

7:43Houston, Nick Giffen has his robbed wins up. Houston has had three robbed wins out of four games.

7:49The Bucs, too, nobody else more than one. So that's where things set up.

7:53The Bucs have had all one score losses. First team since the 2012 Saints.

7:57That Saints team did go seven and five the rest of the way after that.

8:01So here's where all that sets me up. Got to bet, got to marry, got to kill.

8:06Look, I'm already married to the Bucs. Like I need an annulment.

8:10I should have gotten a prenup on the Bucs.

8:13I'm killing the Bucs. For this exercise today, get them out of here.

8:17Jalen Daniels on a short week at double digits, basically underdog.

8:20Not happening. I can't do any investment in the Bucs.

8:23I'll be back. I'll be back again in the future.

8:26After this week, probably Baker back, I think. Pittsburgh, Carolina, Atlanta.

8:29I'll be back. It's the NFC South. We're going to have some chances.

8:33But for right now, kill the Buccaneers. I'm going to bet the Chargers plus three and a half against Denver.

8:39Home team has won 11 of 13 in that rivalry.

8:42Nine of the 13-1 score. We caught the falling knife last week.

8:45I thought it was a one-night stand. I guess I'm back for two.

8:49It's a two-night stand with the Chargers. So bet the Chargers, kill the Bucs.

8:53And I'm marrying the Texans. I still believe in the defense.

8:56I still think this is a good team. They're top 12 in my power ratings.

9:01They're going to win in Tennessee this week. That'll be the first one.

9:05Then it's England and Jacksonville. You can save the season a little bit if you win that game.

9:10Because after that, Giants, Chargers, Browns, Colts. There's some runway for this team to still hang around.

9:15Now, I think they're in too big of a hole to really have a lot of value.

9:20We've talked about this. There's still just not much value there on the futures market.

9:24But I have to pick one. So I'm marrying the Texans.

9:28You can do over seven and a half. I think that's got a decent price right now.

9:33Now, I'm going to tell you to make a bet that I've bet already.

9:37But I'm going to add to my position. Give me Will Anderson, Defensive Player of the Year.

9:42It's 3-1 right now. Add to your position if you have him already.

9:46Or take him new. I think I would take Will Anderson against the field.

9:50He's been incredible so far. I think he single-handedly nearly won the last two games.

9:54The field here is not that great. It's TJ Watt.

9:57Not going to hold up over a whole year.

10:00It's Dallas Turner, Greg Rousseau. Those guys are going to fade.

10:03Give me Will Anderson. And that's my way of marrying into the Texans.

10:07You and I are in complete lockstep here. I mirror much of this sentiment.

10:11The first bet that I made in terms of an ATS bet for week five was the Chargers plus three and a half.

10:18I somehow have them rated higher in my power ratings than the Denver Broncos.

10:22So I don't get it either. I'm now slightly lower with the offensive line injuries.

10:26But all things being equal, I still have the Chargers as a better football team.

10:31Wow. And my numbers are purely subjective. I mean, you know, like you can't make numbers and then throw too much of your own opinion in there.

10:39That kind of dilutes the whole process. So either way, I mean, Bo Nix is a road favorite.

10:44We get to fade that. This is an auto bet on the LA Chargers.

10:48I'm curious how you have those two lined up between the Chargers and the Broncos.

10:53I know DVOA is probably miles apart with those two.

10:56But what about your personal numbers? Yeah, my own model has that game pretty close to a coin flip.

11:01So it's definitely a Chargers or nothing spot. I would still probably prefer nothing because the Chargers have been so bad.

11:07They covered the seven and a half last week, but by hook or crook down at the end.

11:13And it looks like Slater won't play the left tackle.

11:16I don't know if Alt will play. That was the good part of the line.

11:20Like if those two are out, we're down to backups and backup backups on the line.

11:25And look, Denver's defense is going to be missing Sertan.

11:28There's a lot of guys missing here. I can't believe that I have this basically priced as a coin flip.

11:34So that's where my numbers would have it. But yeah, I don't know how you can invest at Denver above the hook,

11:40above a field goal on the road so that you can't go Denver here.

11:44But I just think if you can get the Chargers and at least keep it within a field goal, can you get

11:51the one score loss and at least get it covered?

11:54Give me no part of the money line here.

11:56You know, I'm an aggressive guy. I'm not banking on a win here.

12:00Can you just keep it ugly and close? Maybe the Chargers can do that.

12:04And they were able to do that against Seattle.

12:07So we know ugly and close is at least in the bag of the LA Chargers.

12:12I'm with you with the Texans. I still think they're really good.

12:15EPA per play, they're 24th on defense, but success rate, they're fourth.

12:19So where's the gap? EPA per play overvalues big plays.

12:22They've gone up against Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.

12:25You're going to give up big plays. And Nick Giffen has already shared the graph on socials.

12:30The deserved wins every week. The Texans have a win that they should have that they don't end up getting with Nico Collins.

12:37Offense looks completely different, but you mentioned it. Can we even buy this plus 270 to make the playoffs?

12:43That just doesn't feel like it's good enough. We've only seen one team make the playoffs at 0 and 4, the 1992.

12:49Ironically, it was the San Diego Chargers, but that's not good enough, is it?

12:53No, the price is just nowhere near good enough.

12:56The division price is not good enough. Look, I like Houston.

12:59I'm going to probably keep playing Houston week to week.

13:02But I think if you want to bet them, you're going to have to play week to week.

13:07Because right now, to me, there is value some on the week to week games.

13:12And in the market, there's not value in futures.

13:14They're just not giving us a chance at it.

13:17And frankly, I think at 0 and 4, your best path is to hope you get through the division, not coming back in the wild card.

13:25And that division is a lot less winnable if we're right that Jacksonville is as good as they look now.

13:31So that takes that pathway a little bit too.

13:33All right. And I'm going to kill the Bucs.

13:36No reason to get more into that. All right.

13:39Last one here for buy or sell. Same game, but now we're going to look at the sketchy 3-1 teams.

13:45Bet, marry, kill. Browns, Giants, Raiders. Yeah, look. Look, Browns, we watched that one Thursday night.

13:49To me, my takeaway was those are just kind of two block teams.

13:53Like, I didn't really feel like Cleveland did anything great.

13:56They do now get the Jets and Tennessee two of the next three.

14:00The schedule is starting to bounce on their favor a little bit.

14:03But their wins are 4 points, 3-3 against the Bucs, Panthers, and Steelers.

14:07So I'm not so impressed. Look at the Browns.

14:10You can be impressed that the Browns won a game, let alone three games.

14:14I think Todd Munkin is cooking. I'll give him some credit with that offense.

14:18He has got them outperforming the best they can do.

14:21Giants Island, 3-1. I did not expect this version of things.

14:24It's unfortunate because part of the case on Giants Island, the division bet before the year, was the rest of the division.

14:31And that part's looking really good. The Cowboys are 2-2.

14:34The Eagles are 2-2. We'll talk about both those teams in a bit.

14:38The setup is there, but the Giants got nothing left.

14:41They got all the injuries on both sides of the ball.

14:44We hit the alt this week on the pick six against the Cardinals on the walk-off at the end.

14:49But it's not a great spot for them overall.

14:52However, they're at Washington this week. But Washington's coming back from London.

14:56Then the Saints and the Texans look like very winnable potential games.

14:59There's a road to like 5-2, even 6-1 here if they can kind of hang around.

15:04I think the special teams has been good, as expected.

15:07The defense has at least been solid. Coaching is making a difference.

15:10The Raiders are the best of the three teams so far on paper.

15:14The DVOA is easily best. I thought they kind of outplayed the Chiefs, honestly, this week.

15:19I didn't think that watching live, looking back, they had more yards, more first downs, better success rate.

15:24They lost in the red zone in turnovers. And you're going to do that in some games.

15:29The Chiefs are better. So it's okay to lose to the better team.

15:33But the Raiders are actually top half of the league.

15:36DVOA, offense and defense and special teams. So all three phases.

15:39They're top 10, passing and stopping the pass. If you only had to pick a couple things to be good at, I'd pick those.

15:46I'd rather pick you don't suck running the football so bad.

15:50But I'd rather pick you to be okay at passing.

15:53Here's a stat from ClevTA on Twitter. Seven teams this century had a win total at six or below to start the season.

15:59And then started at least three and one. That now includes the Browns and the Raiders.

16:04So two of these three teams. I don't know if this part's good or bad, but two of those seven did make the playoffs.

16:11Two of seven's not a great percentage, but two of seven, considering the teams you're talking about here, that's not so bad.

16:18That's like 29%. I think that's a little bit of hope for the Browns or the Raiders here.

16:23So bet, marry, kill. Here's where I'm going to go.

16:26Bet the Giants. That is, again, the worst, wonkiest line of the week at the Commanders.

16:31I make that one also close to a coin flip.

16:34It's a big special teams advantage. I think Giants defense, the best unit on the field.

16:38I'll bet that one right now. We're going to talk more about it on the Friday podcast.

16:43That will be on there for me as well.

16:46But look, I think there's a chance Jane Daniels doesn't play this week.

16:50I think he'll play. But if he doesn't, then we get huge CLV.

16:54I'm going to bet it right now while the number is there.

16:57That's an easy choice for me, even though I'm not really, really believing in Giants Island long term.

17:03So that's the bet. And then the other two teams, I want to kill the Browns and marry the Raiders because there's

17:09no question to me who's best between these teams.

17:12But I'm going to flip it. Here's why. Schedule.

17:14Schedule and the number. The Raiders now play Patriots, Bills, Rams.

17:18Ouch. Then the Jets. Then Niners, Seahawks, Broncos. So they actually play the Browns after that.

17:22But that's six of seven teams that are tough, playoff-looking teams.

17:26The Raiders have to play. The Browns in that span play only the Ravens as a team above .500.

17:31And the Ravens probably without Lamar Jackson. So, regrettably, I'm going to get shotgun down the aisle.

17:36And I'm going to marry the Browns over seven and a half.

17:40Just a short-term investment. Put it into the weekly trading.

17:43We're selling. We're selling high in a couple of weeks.

17:46You get the exhausted Jets defense this week. Then Tyler Huntley.

17:49Then the Titans. Can the Browns win another game or two?

17:52That's all I need. Just win a game or two.

17:55Then we'll sell and get the heck off the island here.

17:58I'll marry the Browns. I'll kill the Raiders. All three of these teams plus money to make the playoffs right now.

18:05Raiders plus 160. Browns plus 250. Giants plus 280.

18:07All sitting with that 3-1 record. But you hear Brandon talk about the history of these teams that aren't really supposed to do what they're doing that are.

18:16And it's not quite as shiny as you would think.

18:18I'm going to bet the Browns. I think this is going to be a team that finishes top five ATS by the end of the year.

18:26It's a little bit like the Jaguars where perception of the franchise is not meeting the reality of the quality of play.

18:33I'll marry the Raiders. This is one of my favorite bets going into the season was the Raiders to make the playoffs as a wild card at 8-1.

18:41So I'm holding on firm to a great ticket right now.

18:44And the schedule does scare me, but we're just going to ride that one out and then I'll kill the Giants.

18:50This team is so weird. They have no business sitting atop the NFC East right now.

18:55Much better game against Arizona than against Tennessee. Some of that weather related.

18:59But we know, Brandon, the implosion games are coming for Jameis Winston.

19:02They're coming. It's going to get ugly. It will get ugly.

19:06Much, much more to get to on the Brandon's Future Show.

19:09But first, a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.

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19:41DraftKings, the crown is yours. I'm Hamza. And I'm Martin.

19:44And we're the hosts of Out of Character. It's a podcast.

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20:35And now, the moment you've all been waiting for.

20:37Isn't that why you're here? Oh, I can't wait.

20:40Let's look at the big picture here. All right, Brandon.

20:43Time to take a look at the big picture this week.

20:46What is it that we are looking at with the wide scope?

20:50Yeah, we're looking at those two and two teams this week.

20:53There are 12 two and two teams. That is three eighths of the league.

20:57So not far from half of them. These are just like, these are the confused teams.

21:02They're stuck in the middle. You look at the power rankings.

21:05We know who the really good teams are. We know who the really bad teams are.

21:10We just talked about some of them. These are the ones in the middle.

21:14So last year, Patriots and Broncos two and two.

21:16Then they meet in the AFC Championship. So you can go a long ways from two and two.

21:22Of course, some of them went very much the other direction as well.

21:26There are seven two and two teams that have gone on to win the Super Bowl.

21:30The Patriots were not one of them last year.

21:33They came up short, but they have done it three times a century, along with losing to the Giants in 2007.

21:39So a lot of Patriots involvement on two and two.

21:42They are one of the teams here. So there are 12 of them.

21:46We're going to power rank from 12 to one.

21:49These teams from now going forward. And as always, I've got them in tiers.

21:53So let me just jump into it. Because the first tier, we keep really quick.

21:57Tier five is the NFC South. And it's the Panthers and the Falcons.

22:01Because it's the Panthers and the Falcons. Come on.

22:04Do we really say, like, we watch these teams because they're prime time?

22:08I know. The Panthers probably deserve two and two.

22:10But only because they got to play Cooper Rush one of those games.

22:14Which is, of course, the Falcons. So that's kind of how the NFC South goes.

22:18Somebody has to win the games. Hooray! The Panthers have huge injuries on the offensive line.

22:23They're missing their top two corners. I have right now the Panthers favored one time between now and week 18.

22:29And that one time is only if Jalen Daniels plays in week 7, which he might not buy then.

22:35If it's Baker, I think the Panthers might not be favored again until week 18.

22:39So they're last here. I like that they're more fun.

22:42I like that Bryce Young is balling right now.

22:45But you can't buy in buying high there. And then the Falcons.

22:48Maybe a touch low here. But the truth is, we just don't know a lot about the Falcons right now.

22:54We have two Cooper Rush games where they looked horrendous.

22:57And then we have two prime time games where they look like the best team in the league.

23:02So they're obviously somewhere in the middle. You look great when you play the Packers and the Saints who have no offensive line.

23:09And the Saints have no run defense. And the Packers, too.

23:12Two of the worst run defenses in the league.

23:15Well, if you're Atlanta and you're kind of lacking in a pass rush, so let's make the offensive line worse over there.

23:22And we'd rather just run the ball all night.

23:24I think Penix has like 35 passes the last two games combined.

23:28Great. Well, let's play two terrible run defenses. So, yeah, you're going to look really good that way.

23:33This was always the sell-high spot for Atlanta. Either way, because of the schedule.

23:37Up after this is now Ravens, Bears, Niners, Bucs, Bengals, Chiefs, Vikings, Lions.

23:41That's a lot of good teams, I just said.

23:44Now, it's soon. Maybe not. Well, it looks like not Lamar Jackson this week.

23:48Maybe not Caleb next week with the Bears. Maybe not Baker in a month, depending on how that goes.

23:54So, it could be that the schedule is tilting their way.

23:57We talked about this team, Brandon, two weeks ago on the 0-2 podcast.

24:01I talked about the Falcons as the close your eyes and imagine.

24:04If you had closed your eyes and imagined a thousand times, you would not have imagined things to look this good the last two weeks.

24:12I regret not taking the 8-1 division tickets. The NFC South!

24:15Anyone could have imagined the NFC South going their way.

24:18Now, I think it's too late. Now, Falcons and Panthers, here's the verdict.

24:22I think we wait for them both to continue to look a little good and then come back in on the Saints and or the Bucs later on.

24:30There's going to be chances in that division. Yeah, we are seeing the tale of two separate pairs of weeks from these Atlanta Falcons.

24:37They average eight points per game, 262 yards, seven turnovers in their first two games, 40 points per game in the next two.

24:44Most in the NFL, 459 yards with just one turnover.

24:47And that was very early in the game for Michael Penix.

24:50But this is without AJ Terrell. This is without James Pierce, who they will get back later in the season.

24:56I actually think this team has a higher ceiling.

24:58Not necessarily offensively, because what they're doing right now is ridiculous.

25:02But just overall quality, I think this team still has some room to grow.

25:06Right now might not be the time to buy them.

25:09But I am a believer in the Atlanta Falcons.

25:11I was coming into the season. And I mean, hard not to be at this moment.

25:16Let's go to tier four, purgatory. I imagine the slogan here being good enough to not be awful, but too bad to be good.

25:23It's a three-team tier. We'll start with the first team on the list, the Pittsburgh Steelers.

25:28Yeah, I mean, the description you just gave has been a description of the Pittsburgh Steelers for what, like a half a decade or a decade now?

25:36Look, they also beat Cooper Rush. So congratulations on the Cooper Rush wins.

25:40These two and two teams near the bottom for a reason, because that's basically a bye week.

25:45Ugly in the game against the Browns. Uglier in the game against the Patriots.

25:49I think we'd be in much more panic mode if not for the usual Pittsburgh game, which is the kind of random

25:55home field goal win over the Bengals. The rivalry game where I thought Cincinnati outplayed them, but Pittsburgh does the voodoo thing and gets the win.

26:03So it's not a good team. We know what this team is.

26:07We know what they've been. Rodgers is not good at this point.

26:10The problem is they're not a bad team either.

26:13And up next, you get the Colts, which we'll talk about later is kind of just a really good spot for Pittsburgh.

26:19Then maybe Jalen Daniels with Tampa next. Then home for the Saints and the Browns.

26:24These are winnable games for a not good, not bad Steelers team, which is just kind of where we're at on this team.

26:31So I think it's still the same story with Pittsburgh.

26:34After week nine, they have the bye week then.

26:36The schedule flips against them. So we wait out the next month.

26:40They're going to probably still win a couple of games.

26:43Then we sell, sell, sell fade hard after that.

26:45And we just have to wait until we get there.

26:48Yeah. Yeah. I think right around, right around when the holidays hit, it'll be a great time for us to fade the Pittsburgh Steelers.

26:55They are just so unremarkable at everything. Even their kicker, Chris Boswell struggled seven of 10 on field goal attempts this year.

27:02The Philadelphia Eagles sitting at number nine. And we just had the news that broke that Lane Johnson, their all pro left

27:08tackle or right tackle rather is retiring. And this is, I did not see that.

27:13Wow. That's big. Yeah. Lane Johnson, not coming back.

27:15We knew he didn't play in the last week's in last week's game, but I'm not having Lane Johnson out there for the remainder of the season.

27:23And the way Jalen hurts seems to struggle no matter who the offensive coordinator is.

27:28I think they really miss AJ Brown. I can see where they land here on the list at number nine.

27:34Yeah. I'm ready to sell hard on the Eagles and even more so at that Lane Johnson news.

27:39If you look up the splits from the last like entire Lane Johnson career, they are night and day offensively with Lane on and off the field.

27:47That's not a coincidence that they look so bad this week with Lane not playing.

27:51So that's a really bad sign going forward. And look through four games, have the Eagles look genuinely good at any point in any game so far?

27:59Like at no point. And that's against Washington. That's against Tennessee.

28:03You could have lost both of those games. That's against Case Keenum's Bears where they never even had a shot in that game.

28:09And I think maybe people would say, well, what about the Rams?

28:13They were up against the Rams at halftime. Well, they're up against the Rams because they got one touchdown where the guy

28:19like Darius Cooper Moss is a guy for the play of his lifetime.

28:23And another touchdown where they got a big pass interference call that was very sketchy before halftime.

28:28And that was the lead. So kind of like a light slash fake lead anyway.

28:33And the numbers definitely thought the Rams were the much better team.

28:36I think Philly is much closer to one and three than three and one.

28:40The offense has been terrible. Sean Mannion looks broken as always.

28:44They never fix the things they're going to say they're going to fix.

28:48We talked about this a couple of weeks ago.

28:50Are they a passing team now? Look at the third down.

28:53Well, turns out regression hit like a son of a gun because they completed no third down conversions this week.

28:59Owen 12, one of the worst in NFL history.

29:02The defense surprisingly has been really blah, just like really middle of the pack.

29:06And look, Grenard has been missing a lot. They're not getting much pass rush.

29:10Zach Bond missing is a big one. Outside of Fred Warner, I think that's probably the most important linebacker in the league.

29:17And so these injuries are piling up. Now you got Saquon Barkley, Devontae Smith on offense.

29:21You got Bond, Grenard. Now Lane Johnson just gone off the team.

29:25Dickerson on the line. The line has not been good already.

29:28It's been very middling. The tush push doesn't work as well anymore.

29:32The run game has gone awry. It just, this is a team that I have not felt good about at any point before or during this season.

29:40I think two and two is not a bad outcome for the way they've played so far, but two and two is a terrible outcome.

29:47When you look at the schedule, they played Washington in the opener with two brand new play callers.

29:52They barely win. They play Tennessee who looks the worst in the league other than Miami.

29:57They probably should have lost. They play Keenum and then they play the Rams missing Aaron Donald and Miles Garrett.

30:03And they lose that game too. Like this was set up Brandon for four.

30:07Now Eagles, the fraudulent four, no Eagles. How do they keep getting away with it?

30:12This was the setup. This is what the Eagles always do.

30:15Instead, London Sunday morning over a touchdown underdog. By the time you listen, they might be like 30 point underdogs because the

30:21line raises another point every time you look at it.

30:24Then no rest against Carolina who looks like the team that could beat them now.

30:29Then Cowboys, Washington Giants. That's the big division stretch.

30:31I got to tell you, I think two and five is in play.

30:35I think Nick Sirianni is walking papers are in play here.

30:39I'm all the way out on the Eagles. Eagles, I think this is finally the end for the Sirianni era and I'm not playing median outcomes.

30:46I think if the Eagles go bad, I don't think they go like nine and eight and just miss the playoffs.

30:52I think if it's bad, it's real bad. So we're taking the Eagles mind shaft today.

30:57Here we go. Under nine and a half is the number out there.

31:01Pass. I'm skipping right past it. Give me under eight and a half, 34%.

31:05Under seven and a half, 23%. And under six and a half wins, 11% all the way down.

31:10If the Eagles go bad, I think it goes real bad.

31:14And I got to tell you, I'm going to enjoy it all the way down.

31:18It does seem like we are trending in that direction.

31:21And I think it's a huge statement on where we are with Jalen hurts.

31:25I mean, I try not to make one game conclusions, but we, I thought that that was just such a bad look

31:32for him against the Rams, not being able to convert those third downs.

31:36He's not running anymore. This is the lowest designed run rate of his career, excluding scrambles, 1.3 attempts per game for 1.8 yards.

31:42This is in your bag. How are you not doing this?

31:46It doesn't make any sense. And I think it comes from him.

31:49So we get the Eagles at nine Colts at number eight.

31:52I don't like this Colts team either. So I was happy to see that they landed here on the list.

31:58Yeah. Again, they, they feel like they belong with the Steelers.

32:01The Colts have become the litmus test. Here's a crazy status out from Zach Hicks on Twitter under Shane Steichen.

32:07The Colts are 18 and four against teams that finish the year under 500.

32:12There's seven and 22 against teams that finish over 500.

32:14Now it's not super helpful because we don't know who's going to finish above and below 500 till later, but look at what's happened this year.

32:22They're all into against the chiefs and the Ravens.

32:25Okay. That checks out. They're two and O against Washington and Houston.

32:28All right. Well, so far we're probably four and O to that trend, given that Houston is own four and looking like an under 500 team.

32:36So that's the bad news. The good news is the Colts still get Houston.

32:40Again, they get Tennessee twice. They get Miami, they get Pittsburgh.

32:43So they're going to beat the bad teams and then they get a bunch of other good teams.

32:49They're going to lose the good teams. Shane Steichen in his career with the Colts, nine and eight, eight, nine, eight, nine.

32:55That's the Colts. That's I think where we're headed on this team.

32:59I think they're the team to just watch when you play them.

33:02If we beat, if we beat them, Hey, we're probably a playoff team.

33:06If you lose your bad. That's it. That's what the Colts are.

33:10That's a great way to put it. Don't let that 30 to 13 fool you.

33:14The Colts were about to get run off the field in London by Marcus Mariota.

33:19If he didn't get hurt, the commander's defense was swarming old Daniel Jones, some bad habits that he used to have regularly in New York.

33:26Those were shining through. And then what happened? They get short fields and that's when you can just hand the ball to

33:32Jonathan Taylor and let him do all the damage.

33:35And that usually ends well for the Colts. That's not going to happen against every, against everybody.

33:40Only the Vikings are averaging fewer yards per play than the Colts.

33:44Not good. Tier number three, better get used to 500.

33:47Can't finish that way, but you can trend that way.

33:50So let's take a look at this three team tier.

33:52Number seven, the Green Bay Packers. Yeah. And look, I think honestly, the Packers deserve to be a tier lower based on what we've seen so far.

34:00This is a bit of, of hope and projection on the Packers because I think for Green Bay, given the setup into

34:07the season, given the injuries they had just staying 500 as long as they can until they get Micah Parsons back, that is the hope for Green Bay.

34:15So unlike most of the teams on this list, I think they're not terribly disappointed at 500.

34:20Look, they should be better than 500. They played the Jets and the Bucs, the Vikings and the Falcons.

34:26So they should be better than 500, but if they could just float long enough and get Parsons back now, it looks

34:32like he's probably out till November still. So that's at least four more games without him.

34:37The offensive line has been in shambles, but they did sign a couple new guards.

34:41The offensive line did look a little bit better on Sunday.

34:45They played more tight ends on the field. I think that's helping a little bit.

34:49You just want to, if you're the Packers, not be embarrassed.

34:52And here's what I mean by being embarrassed. The Packers are a field goal underdog at home at Lambeau to the Bears this week, starting a backup quarterback.

35:01That is not what the Packers franchise does. That is embarrassing.

35:04So hang in there. If you're a Packers fan, try to stay 500.

35:08Try to get Parsons back. Try to do the Packers thing.

35:11Do the Matt LaFleur thing and sneak in the back door at the seven seat.

35:15I think that's the hope for the Packers. They lost Edge Cooper this week.

35:20If it keeps trending the way it's going, they're going to slide down this list.

35:24But I'm giving them a little bit of hope still here, given the coach, the quarterback and the Parsons of it all.

35:30Yeah, there's not a lot of life there right now.

35:33They're sitting at one and three with one of their wins being, well, their one win being a three-point win over a

35:40Jets team that is poorly coached in the moment, and maybe overall.

35:43Let's talk about the Broncos sitting at number six.

35:46They perhaps have some offensive play calling issues, but I'll soapbox on that later.

35:50Tell me what it is about the Broncos that lands them here on the list.

35:55That is a very, very kind perhaps. Perhaps is doing a lot of lifting in that sentence.

36:00Davis Webb's offense has just been awful so far.

36:02Bo Nix has looked terrible. He does not trust his reads.

36:06Now you're missing Patrick Sertan, who I've often said was some amount of overrated, but in this defense, very important to Vance Joseph and the scheme.

36:13So let's see what that looks like without them.

36:16Now look, here's the thing with Denver. They have played so far Jacksonville, the Rams, I'm losing on my list here, the Chiefs and the 49ers.

36:24By most power rankings, that is like for the top five teams.

36:27So that is, you can't get a harder schedule than that.

36:30So two and two, pretty good. You can live with two and two if you're only playing top five teams every week.

36:37The problem is that this is just kind of what Denver is, right?

36:41This is what they've been for a couple of years is you play close games.

36:45Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Last year, they got the horseshoe the entire year.

36:50So they won all the close games, but this year they seem slightly worse.

36:54The defense has not been quite as good. Now you're missing Sertan.

36:57They are top half the league offense, defense, special teams, just barely by DVOA.

37:01But the problem with Denver to me is every game is losable.

37:05If every game is close, every game is losable.

37:08So there's no freebies on the schedule. So the schedule stays tough.

37:11And I just think this is kind of what Sean Payton and Bo Nix are.

37:16I never thought this was a Super Bowl contender.

37:18Like a lot of people talked about them coming into the season.

37:22I think it was just going to be a battle every single week.

37:26And you just have to hope you win the close ones.

37:29Okay. So here's my soapbox on this. Maybe Sean Payton just needed a fall guy because Denver is 29th in the league in explosive plays.

37:36They've had zero 100-yard rushers, just one 100-yard receiving game.

37:39Well, guess what? They finished towards the bottom of the league in all of those categories the last two seasons.

37:45So there's a lot of flack being thrown in the way of Davis Webb.

37:49But genuinely, what's the difference other than clout? What is the difference between a Sean Payton offense with Denver and Davis Webb?

37:56I think Sean Payton was like, if it's going to be mid, I want someone else's name on this.

38:01That's what it feels like to me. Yeah, I think that's a good take.

38:05It's the Broncos offense adds Jalen Waddle and doesn't add any of the explosiveness that they're supposed to be getting with him.

38:12I think Sean Payton at least created a realistic Bo Nix offense.

38:16I think Davis Webb's offense thinks they have a real quarterback, and it turns out they do not.

38:21Well, good news for them. They have six home games left.

38:24They're plus 11 at home. They're minus 31 on the road.

38:27So bet them at home, fade them on the road.

38:30And we are doing that in week five. Number five is the New England Patriots.

38:35My power rating still love this team for some reason.

38:38Maybe it's the win against the Buffalo Bills. Where are you on New England?

38:42I thought New England would be a little higher on this list until I got to the market numbers.

38:47That's why they're a little bit lower here. So look, similar to Denver, I think two and two is not so bad for this team.

38:55No A.J. Brown for pretty much the whole stretch.

38:57You start in Seattle, the opening game. They really could have won that game.

39:02They were terrible, terrible against the Jaguars. But you sort of save the season with this win against Buffalo.

39:07And I think they deserve that win. It was a really good game for them.

39:12They went there. Drake May made the plays, made a couple mistakes, but, you know, got the job done.

39:17And this was another team that I circled as get through the first four.

39:21Then you get the schedule swing because now it's home against the Raiders and Jets.

39:26Then you get the Bears. Maybe still no Caleb Williams yet.

39:29Then you get the Dolphins. If you make it through two and two so far, maybe now you get to five and three or six and two.

39:37If you get there, no Raiders and Jets a little tougher than we thought they would be coming into the season.

39:43Certainly. I thought the defense for this team was what I liked.

39:47That's been really good so far. They're seventh in DVOA.

39:50That's about where I rank them. The offense has not been good.

39:53The offense was last and is 26 now in DVOA, but Drake May still struggling to me.

39:58And we saw some big plays, but some of those big plays are like Efton Chisholm making a crazy one-handed catch in the end zone.

40:06Look, that's a nice pass, but you can't count on Chisholm and, you know, and Mack Hollins and these other guys.

40:12There's no weapons out there. So I just worry for what the offense looks like and where this team goes.

40:18Efton, the DVOA folks, has them basically coin flip to make the playoffs at this point and only 20% on the division,

40:24even though they just beat the division favorites here.

40:27So in the market, they're minus 200-ish to make the playoffs.

40:30That is not how I like to play my coin flips, Brandon.

40:34So by market pricing, 37% to miss the playoffs at prediction market, that should be the bet I'm giving you right now is to miss.

40:41But I thought I was going to tell you to invest in the Patriots.

40:45I'm just going to end up saying I'll pass on this team right now.

40:49It's too hard to fade with that schedule coming up.

40:52I think maybe you can buy in now and sell later or you just kind of wait.

40:57And I think maybe wait out this month and then sell a little bit harder at midseason unless we see the offense really come around.

41:05So you like the Patriots. Would you have them a little higher up on this list for you?

41:10I would have them a little bit higher up, but I like the idea of waiting right now.

41:15I will say this, that if you're going to buy the New England Patriots, 28% on the prediction markets, plus that's plus 257.

41:22That's better odds than what you're getting from traditional sportsbooks.

41:25So always shop around. But that's one I would go the prediction model over sportsbooks right now.

41:30They seem to be waiting the New England Patriots a little bit more heavy.

41:34And it makes sense. I think you have a more casual audience that saw this team in the Super Bowl and they'd

41:41be more likely to bet them to win the division or to make the playoffs.

41:45But think about it like this. They already have a head to head against the Buffalo Bills.

41:50And the next time they play them is in Boston.

41:53They're only one game back on Buffalo right now.

41:56So I do like the New England Patriots and they get AJ Brown back in a couple of weeks.

42:01It's going to be a huge boost to this offense.

42:04So the buy time could be now. It's definitely coming up soon.

42:08Tier two, time to buy stock. And here's where I'm leaning in like the meme of the gamer that sits forward in his chair.

42:15So go ahead and cook. Who are we buying?

42:18Yeah. So number four and number three, I'm going to kind of do together because I think they're very similar teams.

42:24Fourth is the Lions and third is the Cowboys.

42:26And look, I thought the Patriots would be higher.

42:29The Lions kind of took their spot here. And again, it's about the markets, about the numbers.

42:34So with both Lions and Cowboys, we kind of know, right?

42:37We have terrible, terrible, all bad, very terrible, awful defenses and a lot of offense.

42:42And it turns out you can lose every game that way because your defense might just poop the bed and then you have to pick up the pieces.

42:50But your offense is so good, you can also win every game.

42:54That makes you volatile. It makes you two and two is what it does usually.

42:58So with the Lions, 55, 58, 67, and 72 points in those games.

43:02Average of 63 on the total. That's hard to live like that, man.

43:06Like they are 31st in defense. The Cowboys are the only team worse than that.

43:10They've allowed at least 24 every game. Secondary has no answers right now.

43:14That Sunday night game was very much just who has the ball at the end of the game.

43:19We've never had a more who has the ball at the end of the game than that one where neither team could get a stop.

43:27The Lions do hopefully get Brian Branch back soon.

43:29That'll help your secondary in a hurry if he can go.

43:33They get Cade Mays back on the line. And look, the offensive line has been a lot better than I thought they would be.

43:40Those young guys have come together and Cade Mays can really help fill out that line.

43:44That offense can have a shot in any game.

43:47And here's why Detroit moved up my rankings. They still have the second easiest schedule left in the league.

43:53They've played easy games, but they still have more.

43:55They still get to play Arizona, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Tennessee, the Giants.

43:59Those are very, very winnable games for an offense as good as the Lions.

44:03This team's floor is so high with their offense, with the coaching staff.

44:07And if you look now at the division, I'm out on the Packers.

44:11We talked about them. We talked about being skeptical on the Bears.

44:14FDN has the Packers 5% for the division, Bears 20%.

44:17They think it's Vikings or Lions. I have Vikings before the season.

44:21I've got Vikings plus 510. I got my stock, even though I wouldn't want to be buying Vikings right now.

44:27We'll talk about them on another podcast, but obviously a little bit fraudulent at their foreknow.

44:31But Lions 35% to win the division, projected 10.4 wins.

44:34That seems about right. This is just a team that's going to hang around and be in all these games.

44:40I'm going to add right now some Lions stock to my division portfolio.

44:44So if you have Vikings already, you can play it and add to it at plus 280 at DraftKings.

44:50Or if you're new, I think it's a good new bet as well for the Lions.

44:54So I want, for me, Vikings and Lions. Give me two outs in this division because I'm not super confident just in my Minnesota stock.

45:02And I won't be confident in the Lions either, but at least I get two bites of the apple now.

45:08So I'll say more with the Cowboys in a second, but I like Lions division here and the numbers are in our favor.

45:14Yeah. It almost sounds like a Bears fade as much as anything else that you're buying stock in the two other teams that are sitting at the top.

45:23I view the Lions very much matchup dependent. If they face an anemic offense, they can win with some measure of predictability,

45:29win and cover for the purposes of what we do for a living.

45:33But if they play teams who can move the ball well, like they have Buffalo at will, Carolina at will.

45:39The Saints were anemic in the first half and then they snuck out with a win in that game.

45:45And then the Jets, they play teams like the Jets.

45:47They're going to win those games and they're probably going to win them easily.

45:52Uh, this is a team that I will, I will bet on if the offense they play is, uh, is bad and

45:58I will bet against them if they're going to play a team.

46:02That's it's one of the reasons why I've got this game circled.

46:05I haven't bet it yet. Cause the line seems to be, I want to see if I can get a six, but

46:12the Cardinals this week, they can move the ball.

46:14The lines are terrible against tight ends. Trey McBride.

46:17I hope he ends up on your playground because he's going to go crazy in this game.

46:22Let's go to number three. Are you, is that, is that one already been circles for you?

46:27I was just going to say, Arizona did just lose Paris Johnson.

46:31Who's their only good offensive lineman. So, so that scares me a little bit with them offensively.

46:36And so that was tricky with those games. It was like, okay, how high should the line be?

46:41Because the lines could put up 50 in that game and no one would really bat an eye.

46:46So does the line say, okay, Detroit can just cover four or five, six easy and they'll just keep on scoring or

46:53does it leave the back door open? And that's always the tough decision each time.

46:57But yeah, I've got my eye on that one.

47:00I have a lot of Detroit trends, but we'll see for Thursday.

47:03For sure. I think I need that six to pop up.

47:07Let's go to number three, the Dallas Cowboys, America's favorite team.

47:10Where are you at on them? Yeah, very much.

47:12The second verse, same as the first is what I just said on Detroit.

47:17Right. Terrible defense, whole lot of offense. And I think even more so on both cases, worst defense in the league so far.

47:23You just made Houston offense look really good. Like enough said on that.

47:27I do hope Joey Porter helps out there. I think he can really kind of reshape the secondary once things settle in there.

47:34The offense honestly has been as good as we hoped it would be.

47:38I think even better. They have had the fifth best points per drive through four games this century for, for a comparison

47:44to say here are the teams right above and below them.

47:48The 2007 Patriots and the 2018 Chiefs. Notable good offenses, those ones.

47:51So if you're doing that, you're doing pretty well.

47:54The problem is they can't stay on the field because the defense is always on the field and can't get a stop.

48:00Again, like the Lions, young offensive line that's really come together.

48:04And they get Tyler Smith back soon. Maybe even by Thursday.

48:07I would guess at least by next week. I did not expect this when I did my offensive line studies, but I

48:13think this is maybe a top five line once Tyler Smith is back out there.

48:18So you add that into the Clayton Adams offense.

48:20All the rest of the talent. CeeDee Lamb, I think, just caught three more passes against Houston as we speak.

48:26These guys are doing anything they want offensively. And now I think the schedule a little bit bounces in their favor.

48:32Tampa, Green Bay, Philly the next three weeks. Okay, well, I don't mind playing those teams right now.

48:38If I got to play Tampa, Green Bay, Philly, give them to me right now.

48:42Well, I can get them while they're down. And so I think the Cowboys are set up pretty well.

48:48Near the end of the season, weeks 13 to 16, they go Philly at Seattle at the Rams and Jacksonville.

48:54I think that's the season story for Dallas. I think no matter what happens between now and then, we're going to have

49:00this team that can't stop anyone and can't get stopped in these prime time is Dak the MVP.

49:06We're going to be having all the conversations. We're going to lead every podcast and every show because it's the Cowboys.

49:12And it's what we're going to be talking about on Thanksgiving and in December.

49:16So I don't have a futures bet for Dallas.

49:19I think similar to what you said with Detroit, they're a team that you invest in when the matchup is right and

49:25stay the heck away from when the other team is going to score 40 as well.

49:30I do think they're a rightful favorite right now in the NFC East plus 125 on DraftKings.

49:35And if you don't have any Cowboys stock, I don't think it's a terrible time to take some bucks and Packers on deck.

49:42So they should be stacking up those wins after this week.

49:45So four and two could very well be on the horizon after week six.

49:49Let's go to the last one in the tier.

49:52And this is the tier we're buying stock in.

49:54I agree with this wholeheartedly. The Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah.

49:57So look, this is only even partly about the Bengals themselves.

50:00I think they are probably deserving two and two teams so far.

50:04They really could be four. No, they lost ugly one in Pittsburgh.

50:07They really should have beat Jackson. We talked about that earlier.

50:11They didn't though. So they're two and two, but usually the Bengals are one and three right now.

50:16So I'll take two and two that's an improvement over Joe Burrow's usual September.

50:20And I had this exact spot circled on the calendar for the Bengals before the season even started.

50:25They play now Miami next. So that's a bye week.

50:28Then they get the real bye week. So they're basically off for three weeks right now.

50:33And then the rest of the season, they only have three more games left against teams I project in the playoffs.

50:39It's the two Ravens games and it's the Chiefs.

50:42That's it. This is the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

50:45I knew that was coming. This is the spot I want to invest.

50:49And now on top of it, you get the Lamar Jackson injury, which can only help Cincinnati if the Ravens drop a game or two.

50:56If Lamar Jackson falls out of the MVP race, missing a game or two.

51:00And look, I think people overreacted to the defense early.

51:03I don't think this is a great defense, but we didn't think they would be.

51:08We wanted them to be like 20th best defensively.

51:10We wanted 20th best offensive line. I think we got it.

51:14I think we got 20th best and I think we can live with that.

51:18And so I don't see huge value on the division in the playoffs in part because I still love the defense and

51:24I still really like the Ravens even with Lamar.

51:27But here's the bet I do love. Joe Burrow for MVP at 4% right now at DraftKings Predict.

51:32Look, I think MVP is down to seven guys.

51:35Josh Allen, Purdy, Mahomes, Lamar, Lawrence, Dak, and Joe Burrow.

51:38Trevor Lawrence is under half this price. We just watched these guys play.

51:42Lawrence won. Shouldn't he be the bet? No, we buy low.

51:45We don't buy high. We're buying Burrow at double the price with better stats.

51:49He's on pace for almost 5,000 yards. Same number of touchdowns as Lawrence so far.

51:54And I think actually, Brandon, the defense is maybe the sweet spot.

51:57You can't be terrible like the Cowboys. That's why I'm not giving you a Dak bet because now you're going to lose

52:04games too many and you don't get there. But you can't be really good, maybe like Jacksonville, because you don't have to throw as much.

52:11You can just run the ball and get a win with defense.

52:14What if you're just right in the middle? What if you're just kind of terrible, kind of bad, kind of bad enough

52:21for Burrow to have to pass, pass, pass, pass, and get those numbers all season long?

52:26That's the version that we've wanted. Lamar Jackson injury helps because of his MVP stock being down as well.

52:31Right now, the Bengals are at about 12% to be a top two seed in FTN odds.

52:36I think if you're a top two seed as Joe Burrow, I think you win MVP.

52:41I think that's the ticket you want. We're getting 4% here.

52:44I'm going to bet the long tail. I already have Mahomes and Lamar before the season.

52:49That's two of those seven. I'm going to add Burrow.

52:52And if you're new, I think you win bet just Burrow.

52:55I think AFC is the kingmaker. Whoever comes out in those top seeds, that is your MVP this year.

53:01And I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals have a real shot at like 13 and 4 and should be right in the mix.

53:08Yeah, I think this is a great time to buy all sorts of Cincinnati stock.

53:12The fact that Lamar is a long shot to play this week and the Ravens are still sitting at minus 170.

53:19The Bengals at plus 235. Division bet. I would take it a step further and go conference bet for the Cincinnati Bengals as well.

53:26I mean, if the defense is improved, Burrow's playing like an MVP.

53:29They're plus 950 to represent the AFC. Here's the thing to add to the little extra sprinkle on your Burrow Sunday here.

53:36The Bengals threw the ball 82% of their offensive snaps against the Jaguars.

53:40When Joe Burrow was asked after the game, what do you make of a percentage like that?

53:45He said, I think we should throw more. So that sounds like somebody that's perfectly okay taking home that MVP.

53:50I love the bet. Let's go to tier one.

53:53Still the rightful favorites, the LA Rams. Well, yeah, I don't think we even need to say a whole lot about the Rams.

54:00I think the Rams are still the easiest, best two and two team.

54:04I think if you took odds away, if you're just at the bar with your buddy and they said, who's going to win the Super Bowl?

54:11Who's coming out of the NFC? And you can just pick a team.

54:15You're still picking the Rams. Come on, let's be real.

54:18It's still the Rams right now. They're still just as good as we thought they would be because this is what they do.

54:25They start slow. They kind of treat September like the preseason.

54:28They get better later. I think they probably should be three and one right now.

54:33They shouldn't be Denver. They deserve to beat Philly.

54:35We know about the week one Australia thing. We don't know how much that was.

54:40And they're two and two despite most of that stretch.

54:43No Miles Garrett. No Aaron Donald. Not much Puka Nakua in that stretch.

54:47Their defense has looked everything we thought that they might be the last three weeks for almost all of it.

54:52Except for a couple Denver drives. And they've done that with no Miles Garrett.

54:57Without the defending defensive player of the year, they still are a top five defense right now.

55:02The offense has been, quote, disappointing. They're seventh in DVOA.

55:05They're not what they were last year because they were never going to be.

55:09It doesn't work that way. But they're still really good.

55:12They're going to get better. They're still really good.

55:14Puka is back now. And look, the special teams is awful.

55:18I don't know. Sean McVay, for the love. Will you recognize that special teams exist?

55:22They're so bad. They're last in the league at it.

55:25It's going to cost them a game at some point.

55:28Please just be decent at it. But everything else I think is fine.

55:32Everybody chill. It's just the Rams. Here's what happened the last three years.

55:36Last year, they started three and two. They finished 12 and five.

55:39Previous year, one and four, ten and seven at the end.

55:42Previous before that, three and six, ten and seven after that.

55:46It doesn't matter what happens early. This is by design.

55:49This is what Sean McVay does. They win late in the year.

55:52Now, look, I'll point out those three teams that rebounded, they also lost on the road in the playoffs.

55:58Because when you lose the early games, you play on the road in the playoffs later.

56:02So we'll think about that later in the season.

56:05I'm not telling you to buy Super Bowl stock.

56:08I'm just telling you the Rams are still who we thought they were.

56:12And a quick bet, Puka Nakua is 2% at DK Predict for Offensive Player of the Year.

56:17I don't love investing in a dude with a sports hernia.

56:20I don't love anything about a sports hernia. It's probably not going to end well, but 2% is a crazy price.

56:26He was top three last year. His pace is not that far off this year.

56:30He's missed two games. But if he continues to play and is back mostly healthy now, we saw him hit a lot of the escalator this week.

56:38I think that's just too low for a guy this good.

56:42So that's my investment in the Rams. Puka for OPOI.

56:45I think they're just fine. I will recap all of these before we wrap up the podcast.

56:50So don't you worry out there if you're like, wait, I didn't get a chance to write all of that down.

56:56All of the tiers, all of the bets within those tiers.

56:59We'll get to that as we wrap up the show.

57:02Time for our weekly trading segment. I am your stock analyst, Brandon Kravitz, alongside Brandon Anderson, of course.

57:07Get it while it's hot. I mean, how long am I supposed to keep it?

57:12For a week or so. Buy low, sell high.

57:14This is our opportunity to buy a stock that we're going to sell later.

57:19Now that's usually what I will recommend in this segment.

57:22I'm not going to do that here because I don't want to let this one go.

57:26But I have to bring this up now because I don't think this price is getting any better.

57:32Ben Johnson, coach of the year, 11% at some places.

57:34But not everything needs to be deep down the board.

57:37Sometimes we just need to buy the low hanging fruit when it's still sitting at a good price.

57:43Now I'll be honest. Most of the time in this segment, I am going to give you something that you can sell at a later date.

57:50But I am keeping this one. Three wins on the season.

57:54Three different quarterbacks. Add to that, if we're going to throw some extra logs on the fire, he beat his former co-worker in Aaron Glenn.

58:01And the Lions look significantly less fluid and creative without him.

58:04Yes, their offense is still elite. It's not what it was when Ben Johnson was the offensive play caller.

58:10Some of that's offensive line play. But if you're looking for reasons to vote for a guy, there's more reasons than just the job that he's doing.

58:18So not only does he get credit for stewarding the Bears success, he'll get credit if the Lions collapse as well.

58:24He's the new offensive darling of the league. And the fact that he didn't win this award last year really helps.

58:30The media will be tripping over themselves to vote for this guy.

58:34That's bagged wins with Caleb Williams, Tyson Bajant and Case Keenum.

58:37I think this is worth an add to the portfolio.

58:40One other nugget for you, Brandon. Only three head coaches in NFL history prior to Ben Johnson won three of their first

58:47four games with three different starting quarterbacks. Pretty good list.

58:49Tom Coughlin in 1997, Al Saunders in 1987, and Don Shula in 1980.

58:53Gotta have some Ben Johnson in your back pocket.

58:56Yeah, I mean, I think you made an awesome case for it.

59:00And my only concern is I think Ben Johnson wins coach of the four games so far, but we got to win

59:06it at the end of the 18. And will we remember then that Tyson Bajant played and that Case Keenum played?

59:12Or will that be long forgotten? We'll have other narratives.

59:15It shouldn't be. But I've come to really hate coach of the year because I don't know if the voters remember all

59:22the stories along the way or just the more recent ones.

59:25I think Ben Johnson wins in a sweep for coach of the first four games.

59:29We'll see about end of the season. I thought he should have won last year.

59:34So I'm with you on that. I'm going to make a really easy case here for Chiefs as last unbeaten in the NFL.

59:41It's 48% in the prediction market. And look, you don't have to even like the Chiefs for this bet.

59:46This isn't even really a bet on the Chiefs.

59:49There are three options left. Chiefs, Vikings, 49ers. And two of those teams have a tough road game this week.

59:55One of those teams will watch those tough road games at home on the couch because the Chiefs are on a bye week.

60:02They can't lose this week. The Niners can lose and the Vikings can lose.

60:06And then the Chiefs play the Chargers next week in Kansas City.

60:09So if you don't think they lose that game, the following week they play Sunday night against Seattle.

60:14That's important. That means unless they lose to the Chargers, the other teams here have three chances to lose before the Chiefs have a real chance to lose.

60:23That is the buy low, sell high of this segment.

60:26So Chiefs last unbeaten at 48%. Folks, you got to understand that I get the cheat sheet.

60:31I get to see this stuff before we hit record on the podcast.

60:35I could not bet this fast enough when I saw this on there.

60:38I think not only is this a great bet, I think this bet cashes this weekend.

60:43I think the Vikings lose and the 49ers lose and boom.

60:46So fantastic. I love the idea of betting on a team that's on a bye week and I don't even need to worry about them.

60:54This is just great. Quick futures recap from the podcast today.

60:57Will Anderson, three to one defensive player of the year.

61:00Eagles win total mineshaft, taking it all the way down.

61:03What's the floor on this, Brandon? We're going under eight and a half, seven and a half, and six and a half.

61:09But you can keep going if you want. I won't stop you.

61:13Never. Brandon will never stop you from the mineshaft.

61:16Lions division plus 280. Joe Burrow, MVP at 4%.

61:18And Pukanuku, offensive player of the year, sitting at an ice, crispy 2%.

61:22All right, BA, take us home. What's the one last thing?

61:25Can I say one more thing? This better be important.

61:28There's one more thing before I go. Real quick on this one, we talked about 12,500 teams.

61:33Only two of them play each other this week.

61:36It's the Colts and the Steelers. And it is the worst scheduled spot of the season for any team for the Colts.

61:42Indianapolis is coming back from London. No rest. Usually that means good for opponents.

61:47Team total over, a.k.a. The Steelers score some points.

61:49Your defense is tired. And the Colts are going on the road coming back from international.

61:54That is not usual. You hope you get it by a week.

61:58You at least play at home after that. They're on the road.

62:01They're in Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh is on extra rest coming off of a Thursday night game.

62:06What is that worth to the spread? I don't know, but it's a bunch.

62:10And that is why the spread might look different than you expected.

62:13So I'm not telling you to bet Pittsburgh or fade Indianapolis necessarily.

62:17But do keep in mind that is the nastiest scheduled spot on the entire schedule this year for the Colts.

62:23It is time for us to call it a night.

62:26Goodbye from the Brandons. That will do for us today.

62:29Keep an eye on the Stucky and Doug Week 5 betting preview on Wednesday.

62:33The touchdown show on Thursday and Friday. B.A. will be back with the NFL playground shoots, ladders, parlays, and the works.

62:39I want to see Trey McBride slide his way into the playground.

62:43That's all for us still to come on the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings.

62:47So much more to get to throughout the course of the week as we continue to preview Week 5.

62:53And if you're not bet syncing on the Action app, what are you doing with your life?

62:58I'll be back on the favorites, hopefully with a fully recuperated voice on Thursdays to submit our five contest plays.

63:04Until next time, good luck out there. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.

63:08If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.

63:13And if you're going to play guitar. Watch your finger.

63:16However, humans you believe it is a good future game market.

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