Dynasty Stock Market - Dynasty Values Set to IMPLODE Next Season
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
44 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 4, 2026
Published
Sat, July 4, 2026
6
Player insights
6
Players mentioned
Topics
Blake CorumDevonta SmithJadarian PriceJavonte WilliamsKyren WilliamsZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
Blake Corum
PositiveBreakout37:06
Bullish on Blake Corum as player who will get more expensive next year. Showcased ability to contribute and needs to be featured in Rams offense. Provides pop, burst, and explosiveness that Kyron Williams lacks. Went from 58 rush attempts rookie season to 145 last year (2.5x increase); 7.2 fantasy points per game across 17 games last year. Rams rookies historically don't take off immediately but gain trust factor in year two, as evidenced by Corum's progression. If role increases to 8-9 fantasy points per game, could become preferred option over Kyron.
Insight pageDevonta Smith
PositiveValue25:54
Was a buy before A.J. Brown news, but price has risen significantly; now WR20-23 in Dynasty Data Lab and higher on Keep Trade Cut. At 27.6 years old (will be 28 by December), on a run-first Eagles offense (52.1% pass rate) that won't become pass-heavy even with A.J. Brown gone; historically run-heavy with close to 50% rush rate over last three years. Makai Lemmon will be high-end targeter but won't eat his lunch. High third-round redraft ADP is too expensive. Price unlikely to increase; will experience boomerang/stepping-on-rake effect as he ages another year. WR20 is his ceiling; career range 833-1,200 receiving yards with typical 900-1,000 output. Will need to hit on efficiency to produce, but that's less likely than him scraping everything he can from Jalen Hurts in a throw-mode scenario. Offense expected to shift back to more RPO with Jalen Hurts tucking and running more, benefiting Saquon Barkley instead. Recommendation: take a shot in redraft on ceiling season upside, but stay away in dynasty because you'll be tied to him as he ages. If you don't own him, don't buy in dynasty; if you do own him, develop an exit plan.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeValue32:12
RB19 in startup ADP, in same tier as Javante Williams, but overvalued for a rookie with no cumulative NFL measurements. Role will be carved up by George Helani and Emmanuel Wilson; Seahawks may manage load similar to Kenneth Walker situation. At 106-107 ADP, Price would not be near that range in 2027 or 2028 rookie classes. Expect him to go backwards from RB19; other backs like Kwon Lacy, Ahmad Hardy, Jaden Bao could easily usurp top-20 value. Avoid in dynasty; acceptable in redraft only. At 22 years old, it's a bet on Seattle offense more than Price himself. Key question mark: what does offense look like with Kubiak gone and Sam Darnold at QB? Should get significant volume in run game, but efficiency depends on offensive quality. Receiving volume capped; didn't show receiving prowess in college, so can't assume NFL development. Concern is ceiling with new OC more than Price's talent. Could stay stable if older RBs ahead of him (Saquon, Bucky Irving) regress, allowing next year's class injection to push him down.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeBust21:54
Ninth in rushing yards last year, seventh in total touchdowns, but efficiency metrics are concerning: yards created per touch 3.22 (30th in league), EPA minus 21.5 (143rd), yards per touch 4.7 (32nd). Risk of regression on touchdown volume; if opportunity share drops from 69% to 60-62% due to Phil Maffa or Jaden Blue eating into carries, value erodes significantly. At 26 years old, no incentive for Cowboys to not run him into ground, but unlikely to duplicate last year's production. Called a trap pick in dynasty startups; round three ADP on Underdog is way too expensive. However, Player Profiler notes Cowboys extended him (unlike Zeke situation), signaling commitment; locked into good offense for minimum two years as a good pass protector who will get receiving volume. Price expected to stay stagnant at RB20, not increase significantly unless he has a horrific year. Age (27 next year) and lack of explosiveness are concerning, but opportunity share keeps him stable.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeBust38:15
RB16 in startup, but overpriced and will decline in value next year. Explosiveness lacking; lacks measurables of incoming elite RB class (Ahmad Hardy, Ole Miss kid). Similar to Javante Williams (not crazy explosiveness, playing great offense) but faces more competition in Rams offense than Javante does in Cowboys offense. Javante is four spots cheaper and was better talent coming out of college. Fancy points per game declined three straight years: 21.3 to 17 to 15.5. Rush attempts dropped from 316 to 259 over last two years as Blake Corum increased from 58 to 145 attempts. Fumble issues: tied for most lost fumbles in last three seasons, happening in tight games; question how long Sean McVeigh tolerates this. Out of rookie purgatory now; expect Blake Corum to continue pendulum swing upward while Kyron's role diminishes. Inflation is a big issue with Kyron's current pricing. Dwindling fancy points per game (down to 15.5) signals he's overpriced right now. Long-term, Blake Corum holders will be happy while Kyron Williams holders will be frustrated. RB16 is not in the cards for him next year.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue31:12
One spot ahead of DeVonta Smith in rankings but should not be anywhere near close in price; younger, on expanding offense with new offensive coordinator. Lamar Jackson has shown year-over-year improvement as passer (unlike Jalen Hurts limitations) and can create time for receivers. Much better buy than DeVonta Smith at similar market price; market mispricing presents opportunity to capitalize. Player Profiler recommends targeting Zay Flowers over DeVonta Smith.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:07Terms and conditions apply. Pays. A few weeks ago, we gave out six players that we think will increase in Dynasty value before next season.
1:15Today, we're going to talk about six players we think will decrease in value by this time next year right here on Player Profiler.
1:23Welcome in, folks. Pete Nova here with Player Profiler.
1:26I am joined by my co-host, Jeremiah. Today, we're going to talk, Jeremiah, about six guys that we think are going to
1:33lose value by this time next year that maybe aren't on some people's radars.
1:38We did a show about this, the flip side, a couple weeks ago, and we thought it was pretty good.
1:45We had a lot of fun talking about it.
1:47It did well. It seemed like the audience enjoyed it.
1:51So we're going to kind of run that back, but just kind of flip to six guys that are going to lose value.
1:58How's everything going with you? Are you excited? Anything new?
2:02What's popping? I'm very happy, Pete. We've got the draft kit now out for a couple weeks.
2:07Go and read it. You've got Pete's breakdown of the Falcons and the Chargers.
2:12Great outlook. And you did a video on Saquon Barkley, so a good cameo appearance by you.
2:17Happy Fourth. Hopefully, everybody has a great holiday weekend as they're viewing this.
2:22We talked a couple weeks ago about players who are going to move up.
2:26Well, every year we shuffle the deck, Pete, and I know we got the blood flowing now talking to you about redraft in Dynasty.
2:34So this is kind of a way we tweak in.
2:38There's Dynasty angle because they're going to be cheaper.
2:41But invariably, if these players don't do as well in redraft this year, you're talking about their price being down in both formats.
2:48Next year, shy of maybe there's a fluke injury or a change of opportunity.
2:53But getting to it, let's talk about Alec Pierce.
2:56He's somebody who I just don't think is going to be at this price point next year.
3:01He's going to lower in price. He's going to go down.
3:05We're already hearing about Alec Pierce not having a start fresh, healthy to start the season.
3:10So we may even miss a little bit of time or be behind in training camp.
3:15And there's a lot of signal there. Divergently, this could be great for Tyler Warren.
3:20This would be great for Josh Downs. I know Josh Downs is trendy, but I'm very hot and heavy, happy, excited about Tyler Warren.
3:28On YI's show, we talked about Tyler Warren. Broke him down really good.
3:33So make sure everybody goes and listens to that.
3:36But think about how much he ran pure Alec Pierce last year on 84 targets, 47 receptions.
3:41He garnered 1,000 yards and he had 12.2 fancy points per game, 21.3 yards per reception.
3:46He really is just a target hog downfield. But the problem is he's more of an air yard share hog.
3:53Number one last year, 51.8%. So he's not cutting and carving up the field with the little hits, the quick hitters, the
4:00PPR scams that we've talked about with somebody like Arashi Rice.
4:04Right. So first an air yard share last year, second an ADOT.
4:08That target volume, that efficiency of connection, I think is going to be worse this year.
4:13It's going to regress some and that's going to pull Alec Pierce down.
4:17It reminds me a lot a few years ago.
4:20Remember, Brandon Ayuk hit something like 1,400 receiving yards before everything went downhill.
4:25And he was such a high talent in Dynasty.
4:28But all the efficiency metrics were really just right for Brandon Ayuk.
4:32And you start to poke a hole in that.
4:35If you see any wearing off, that's going to plummet the value.
4:39So if you're just getting the mark just right, it's kind of like a road trip.
4:44Hey, you're going to hit two and a half hours on this road trip.
4:48But you can't stop to pee and you might have to go a few miles over the speed limit and have no
4:56traffic, have all those things hit for you. Right.
4:59Well, you have to stop to pee or you got your kids in there and they got to stop.
5:05You're already docking time. Right. You get a little traffic, you dock time.
5:09And then, of course, traffic flow reduces speed. And then you're not making it more like three hours.
5:15Right. So this is kind of the analogy that I have for Alec Pierce.
5:20Last year, for efficiency, yards per target ran pure 11.9, 21.3 on yards per reception second.
5:25But his yards per route run was 17th. Formation adjusted yards per route run, he was 20th.
5:31And first downs per route run, 33rd. I just don't see it hitting quite right for Alec Pierce.
5:37There's going to be a little bit of a dent in him.
5:41And if we don't see an ascension in volume, mainly Pete, if we don't see up to 100 targets and we don't
5:48see this contract supplying with the Michael Pittman Jr.
5:51absence, the opportunity afforded to Alec Pierce, I think he's just going to be an efficiency monster to where when you don't
5:58hit like that perfectly and it isn't quite optimal, you're not going to hit and run on time like we'd like.
6:05So a lot like that analogy of, hey, you're on a trip to the beach and you want to hit two and a half hours to make it.
6:14Well, it's going to be more of a three hour trip this year in 2026 for Alec Pierce.
6:20Your thoughts on that? Yeah, it's it's hard to imagine with Alec Pierce, who right now is the wide receiver 32 in startup ADP.
6:28He goes right behind DJ Moore, Casey, Jalen Waddell and Jameson Williams.
6:32I would have all those wide receivers ahead of him.
6:35Christian Watson's right behind him. I would take Watson over him as well.
6:40Parker Washington, Michael Wilson, Terry. I would take Parker Washington over Alec Pierce.
6:44Maybe I would take Alec Pierce over Terry. Michael Wilson's still kind of up in the air.
6:49I don't have a firm yes or no, but I think I probably still lean Michael Wilson there as well.
6:56When you look at this Colts team, at least from this year's outlook, I have them projected 12th lowest when it comes to passing attempts this year.
7:05Pass rate sitting at 53.6 percent. Daniel Jones, I haven't projected somewhere around 22 to 25 passing touchdowns this year.
7:12Alec Pierce had six touchdowns last year in a season where Daniel Jones was arguably the best of his career.
7:18Now, we did see things slow down a little bit because obviously Daniel Jones was injured and then it was Phillip Rivers
7:25and it was a mixture of a couple different things.
7:29But when you look at Alec Pierce just from a standpoint of future value, right, this is a guy who is 26 years old.
7:37Yeah, second round pick. He's a guy that, to me, you cashed in on if you could get a good offer for
7:44him, especially when he cashed in on this contract that he signed, which was four years over $100 million.
7:50Now we're looking at a player who is dealing with injury right now.
7:54He had to have off-season surgery on his ankle.
7:57And they're saying it can extend to sometime in late August.
8:01Not what we really love to hear for a guy coming off of a season like he did.
8:07When you look at him, he's not really a guy that's going to accumulate a ton of volume, right?
8:13Sitting at 84 targets last year, I don't see a path where he improves in his value, right?
8:19He's 26, he'll be 27 this time next year, which is still fine for wide receivers, Jeremiah.
8:25But even in a year like last, 12.2 points per game, there's higher upside players that I'd rather have on my roster
8:32that are younger that maybe haven't fully put it together.
8:35Like a Parker Washington, who to me, at his ceiling, looks way more appetizing for fantasy football.
8:41I worry that this year Alec Pierce could start off a little bit slow due to the ankle injury.
8:47And what does that do for him in terms of his year-long output?
8:51And then how is he viewed next year, right?
8:54Like is he viewed as a guy that if he doesn't crush it this year, is he viewed as a guy who people say one-year wonder?
9:03Colts got a bad deal on him. They extended him out of scarcity.
9:07And I like Alec Pierce. He's a fine player.
9:10It's just when we talk about players, there are some that translate well for fantasy and some that don't.
9:16I finished his wide receiver 28 last year. Again, I understand that Daniel Jones was hurt last year.
9:22But when you just look at his game log, I mean, he had one, two, three, four, five games in the fantasy
9:30football season where he scored 14 or more fantasy points.
9:33You know, I mean, that's not really high-end upside for me.
9:37And he's just not going to get that volume that's going to make up for him not scoring touchdowns or making the big plays.
9:45So I just don't know how sustainable it is for a guy that you're going to be excited to put in your lineup on a week-in, week-out basis.
9:54I don't know how high the ceiling is. I could be wrong, right?
9:58I mean, Colts have talked this offseason. You know, there's been some rumblings that they're going to get him more volume.
10:05Jeremiah, I've seen beat writers say that. But I'm just not really buying that, to be completely honest with you.
10:12So yeah, he's definitely a good call out by you.
10:15I totally agree here. I'm not anticipating his stock to go up.
10:19I think he's an asset that's only going to go down in value where he's currently at.
10:24And to put a bow on it as well, 84 targets was his career high.
10:29Other three seasons, 77, 65. And a very nice, but not so nice in this instance, 69.
10:35So it is kind of tough. And I love all the receivers that you mentioned, all in that range, be it Christian
10:42Watson, Parker Washington, or somebody like Jalen Waddell. Definitely want Jalen Waddell.
10:46And then you think next year, all the rookies who influx.
10:50So even though it's round eight-ish in a startup, that number can absolutely go down.
10:55We loved Alec Pierce when he was round 14.
10:58Okay? Because you knew you could get leverage off of that.
11:01But now he's kind of a little bit too close to the sun.
11:06Now, speaking of too close to the sun, Pete, we have Nico Collins right now in startup value.
11:12He's going as a wide receiver one, back end, wide receiver 12, goes near players like George Pickens, Emeka Mbuka.
11:18With the way Stroud and David Montgomery has come in, and the defense of the Texans, game flow.
11:24I'll let you dive in because this is your guy.
11:27But I'm having questions too. And I'm really glad that you put Nico Collins here because it seems like you're taking a
11:35stand on being bearish on Nico Collins. So the pendulum, Pete, you're telling us, isn't going to go closer to wide receiver one overall.
11:43It's going to go in the other direction. Tell us why.
11:46Yeah, I love Nico Collins. I've always been a really, really big fan.
11:50I cashed in with him on a ton of leagues for Dynasty where I held him, and he obviously broke out.
11:57I took a lot of chances and bets on him, and so he paid off.
12:02So it's tough because this is a player that I really, really do like.
12:07Like, it's just unfortunate that, you know, he's in a situation where, you know, he's with a Texans team that I'm just not super thrilled with.
12:15Right? You know, he inked a deal last year, or I'm sorry, in 2024.
12:20And I believe, Jeremiah, and I'll take a look at it really quick, but I believe he was either in talks about
12:27getting a contract extension or he did already get a contract extension this offseason.
12:32I'd have to take a look. I know they did something with his contract.
12:37But 27 years old on an offense that really has a, you know, a lot of now mouths to feed in a way.
12:44Right? You have Jaden Higgins. You have Tank Dell who's coming back.
12:48We don't really know what he's going to look like.
12:51But obviously you also have Jalen Noel who sounded like he struggled with the playbook a little bit last year.
12:58But there is an influx of talent now on this roster.
13:02And this is a team that's going to play really good defense, run the football, be conservative in some way, shape, or form.
13:09So it definitely limits Nico's upside. Now, look, wide receiver eight last year.
13:14He's obviously, you know, when he's been healthy, he's been phenomenal.
13:17Right? You just look at some of his finishes over the last three seasons.
13:22I mean, wide receiver seven, eight, and nine in total points per game.
13:26Though it's funny, right? He finishes as wide receiver nine last year in points per game with 15.1.
13:32He finished one wide receiver spot higher in 2024 with a total of 2.5 more points per game.
13:38So last year, the 15.1 points per game and finishing ninth is a little misleading because it was a down year for wide receivers as well.
13:46So while, yeah, on the store board stat sheet, it looks like, oh, well, he was the wide receiver nine last year in points per game.
13:55It finishes wide receiver eight overall. Year that, you know, was down for wide receivers.
14:00So you also factor in that this is going to be another year of influx of talent at the wide receiver position for rookies, right?
14:08We're going to have a really good class next year.
14:12So I anticipate some of these rookies coming in.
14:14I mean, how many people have these rookies from this draft class ranked inside the top 20 already?
14:20I have Carnell Tate and Jordan Tyson both ranked inside the top 20.
14:25I have Makai Lemon just on the tip of the top 20.
14:29So that's three guys right there. You're going to have guys that are going to come in next year who are arguably better than this year's class.
14:38They're going to get drafted. So you've got to just project in the future.
14:42It's going to push stuff down. I'm not saying sell Nico Collins for nothing.
14:47You should be able to get a very, very nice haul for him.
14:51But what I am saying is if you are somewhat of a rebuilder, he does not really belong on your roster.
14:58I think he's a good player to cash in on right now because I don't think his value will be higher than it is right now.
15:07You made a good point. And as you were scuttle-wilding trying to figure out the contract thing, I got it pulled up, Pete.
15:14And they're going to have to come to the table.
15:17You're correct. This year, he makes Nico Collins' base salary of $1.5 million.
15:22He's got some restructured. He's got different money that's out there that he's making more than that.
15:27But it's coming in different spots. But next year, his base salary is $28 million.
15:32And there's a big jump there. And I think what's going to happen is he's probably calling for a deal.
15:39I'm sure his agent is probably saying, hey, let's jump to it now.
15:43To your point, 27 years old, another year older.
15:46Are we starting to get into that A.J. Brown category?
15:49Is Nico Collins limited by a different form of rushing and tempo versus what A.J.
15:54Brown experienced with the Eagles? And then Collins and his agent are having that forethought of, hey, you know what?
16:01We need to make sure we get ourselves a contract.
16:04But to your point, I think what's going to happen is it's very prescient on the fact that David Montgomery got the deal.
16:12He's going to be the bell cow back. And with that defense, there's going to be a finite number of plays.
16:19Kind of goes back to a little bit to part of what we were talking about with Alec Pierce, where Nico Collins,
16:26Pete, is really going to have to hit just right for things to happen and make him repeat wide receiver eight overall in hopefully a better receiver year.
16:35As you had saliently pointed out, it was a down year for receivers so that wide receiver eight wasn't really as impressive.
16:43But to your point, Jeremiah Smith, Cam Coleman, maybe it's Nick Marsh.
16:46There's all sorts of receivers out there. Could it be K.J.
16:50Duff? Who's going to pop off next year and impress players up?
16:54We always have to shuffle down. So I like your call out, Nico Collins shuffling down.
16:59And before we move on to the next thing, I do want to mention.
17:04So he did get some sort of revision in his contract.
17:08So he got $9 million in cash increased this year and $8 million next year.
17:13So they did push up more cash for him this year.
17:16And so it looks like he's good to go until 2028, where then he becomes unrestricted.
17:21So we'll see. I mean, that could be a good thing, could be a bad thing.
17:27I mean, if you're looking at him three years from now and you say, hey, he might be in a better team, better system.
17:35Cool. I just can't project like that. And even when that does happen, he'll be two years older and he's not going
17:42to be looked at as a top 12 wide receiver, which is what he's being valued at currently right now.
17:48Before we move on to the next topic, Jeremiah did talk a little bit about the draft kit and how we've got all that completed.
17:57So we're going to take a quick break here from the pod father and we'll be right back.
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18:57The world famous draft kit is now live. It is ready.
19:00It is complete. So go grab it and dominate your drafts.
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21:14Jeremiah, who do we have up next? It's going to be Javante Williams.
21:19You've got a beautiful dead cat bounce season from him in Dallas, falling into the end zone plenty.
21:25And he ended up with 13 total touchdowns right now, right around RB20 in the round six range.
21:311,200 rushing yards last season. Not like crazy, but a bountiful amount.
21:3535 receptions. You love to see it for him.
21:38And what was the narration on him that his efficiency stats with the Denver Broncos?
21:43They were poor. They were bad. He was getting opportunity, and he wasn't quite doing what he didn't get the output.
21:49But then last year, goes to the Cowboys, another year removed from his injury, healthier.
21:54Backend RB1, RB12 overall. So he's got that cachet.
21:57Ninth in rushing yards last year. He was seventh in total touchdowns.
22:01So that was already high. If we get regression on that, I think we're in some trouble because yards created per touch, 3.22 for Javante.
22:1030th in the league. Expected points added EPA, minus 21.5.
22:13That's glaring to me. That ranks, ready Pete? 143rd.
22:16So that's a really, really tough scene there. And yards per touch, 4.7 was 32nd.
22:21So I can see a lot of things budging in an errant way, in a bad way, for Javante Williams.
22:27If he doesn't get the near volume that we want, we're hearing about Phil Maffa, Jaden Blue, getting opportunity.
22:34Any kind of eating into the carry share, opportunity share of Javante Williams will spell trouble for him.
22:40And he had a 69%, very nice, opportunity share last year.
22:43So if that gets crept into and it hovers down to, let's say, 60 or 62%, that's something else that eats away into Javante Williams.
22:51Kind of reminds me a little bit of what could happen to somebody like Kyron Williams.
22:57So a little bit of a teaser there for you because I think we may touch on him a little bit later.
23:04And Javante Williams, 26 years of age, there's no incentive for the Cowboys to not run him into the ground.
23:11But at the same time, I don't think we get a duplicate.
23:14And I'm calling that the price is going to go down.
23:18I think he's a trap pick, especially in these dynasty startups.
23:22In redraft, you have to pay way up. I think it's round three on underdog that I've seen him.
23:28And I think it's way too expensive. So Pete, what do you make of Javante Williams?
23:33Do you agree, disagree? Yeah, this is one of those where I'm actually going to go the other way a little bit.
23:41I think sometimes in fantasy football, we have to come to the realization that efficiency doesn't matter too much when you're just
23:48on an amazing offense and the opportunity is just going to be there.
23:52They paid him. Jerry's that kind of guy where I feel like he wants to get the most out of his contract
23:59if he's going to give him out. Obviously, the whole Zeke contract a few years ago, we remember how that went.
24:06He obviously extended Lamb. He's been stingy with a lot of contracts, but they did extend Javante.
24:12And they could have went and let him leave, but they decided not to.
24:16With Javante, I do agree, though. I don't really see him increasing too much in his overall value.
24:22Right. I think he probably stays pretty stagnant. I don't think unless he has a horrific year and it's just like, hey,
24:30touchdown regression hits and he's now another year older.
24:33And people say, man, it was probably just a one year thing on a good, good offense.
24:38Then then we'll see his his price drop. But I actually don't think we see that.
24:44I think, you know, he's in another year where he's really doesn't have much competition around him.
24:49I think he's a great pass protector. He's going to get a lot of receiving volume on this team.
24:55And I'm not there yet with Javante. I do see your point, though.
25:00I mean, the age and the lack of explosiveness and efficiency metrics are a little concerning for a guy that's going to
25:07be 27 next year at the running back position.
25:10But I think ultimately, you know, really good team.
25:13He's going to be locked into a really good offense for the next two years minimum.
25:18So I'm not overly concerned. I think his price is pretty, pretty stagnant, which is RB 20 right now, which we're going
25:25to get an influx of some young guys next year.
25:29Right. So that could push him down a little bit.
25:32But if he has another really good year this year, like we saw last year, I think he should pretty hold pretty
25:39steady on his current value right now. I love to hear it, Pete.
25:44And you got to get both sides right here.
25:46Both cases and do with that what you will action wise in Dynasty.
25:51We got Javante. We've got Devonta Smith. Devonta Smith.
25:54Can you tell us about Devonta Smith? Because I really love when we were talking about this, our three players and come
26:01up with him because a lot of the market, I think, is bullish on Devonta Smith.
26:06So, Pete, tell us why you think Devonta Smith isn't going to hit his price point this year.
26:12It is going to go backwards and be cheaper to acquire in Dynasty and in redraft formats next year.
26:18Yeah, I find Devonta like he was a buy for me before the A.J.
26:23Brown news early on in the offseason. Like I thought he was a really, really good buy.
26:29And you've got him at some good prices. Like at that point, like, you know, I was happy to have him.
26:36I think the pricing is kind of risen a good bit.
26:39I mean, he's wide receiver 20, 23 right now in Dynasty Data Lab.
26:44He has dropped a little bit there. But I've seen him, you know, on keep trade cut, like even higher than that.
26:51So, you know, his price has definitely fluctuated. It depends on, you know, where you're looking with him.
26:57But when I just look at this Philadelphia Eagles team, you know, I have them as from a pass rate standpoint at 52.1%.
27:04You know, I don't expect – look, Devonta has performed well with A.J.
27:09Brown being gone. But he's 27.6 years old right now.
27:12It is exciting to see him finally get his chance to be the guy.
27:16But we're talking about a player who, you know, by December of this year is going to be 28.
27:23So, you know, he's 28 on an offense that is going to continue to be run first.
27:28Unless Jalen Hurts is gone and they don't bring him back next year and it's a bad season.
27:34But if it's a bad season, that probably means it didn't go well for Devonta Smith either.
27:40I don't expect even if the offense improves, which it's hard to get worse than what they were last year.
27:46I don't – even if it improves, it's not going to become like a much heavier pass volume offense, right?
27:53I mean, historically, when you look at, you know, the offense in general, you know, at least over the last three years,
28:00like they've predominantly been, you know, in that rush rate close to 50% of the time.
28:06So, I get there's less weapons there with A.J.
28:09gone. But Makai Lemmon is going to be a really, really good player.
28:13I don't expect him to eat Devonta's lunch either, but he's going to be a high-end targeter, right?
28:19I mean, he's not going to maybe be what A.J.
28:22did this year from a target earning standpoint. But I just don't see his price or value going up.
28:28And in redraft right now too, we look at his cost.
28:32I mean, he is like a two-three turn pick right now in some cases.
28:37He's like a high third-round pick. And I'm not really in love with that price either.
28:42I think this is going to be an offense that bounces back.
28:46But a lot of the bounce back is going to come from the rushing side.
28:51That's why I'm very – I'm in on Saquon this year.
28:54So, yeah, I called out Devonta. I love him as a player.
28:58I just think that the price has gotten a little too high.
29:02And I don't think we see it at this spot next year.
29:06There's going to be a little bit of a boomerang ability, a stepping-on-a-rake effect of if you get Devonta Smith in Dynasty,
29:14you're going to turn right back around and it's going to boomerang, and he's going to be 28.5 this time next year.
29:21And going into that type of another year older, to all the things that you have effectuated here, wide receiver 20 is kind of his ceiling.
29:29He was a wide receiver 20 last year. Granted, you're taking A.J.
29:33Brown out of the equation. But throughout his career, five seasons, he's ranged from 833 receiving yards all the way up to near 1,200.
29:41But he's really just 900, 1,000, nothing crazy. And to your point, the volume.
29:46The volume is going to be so much lower.
29:49So you still have to hit. It's funny. It's kind of been a theme this whole show.
29:54You're going to have to hit on efficiency. Not that that can't happen for Devonta Smith, but what is more likely?
30:01Him hitting a ceiling outcome, Devonta Smith, or him scraping everything he can from Jalen Hurts going into somewhat of a throw mode.
30:09Granted, I think it's going to shift back to what your narration is of more RPO.
30:14Jalen Hurts has to tuck and run more. And Saquon Barkley getting an improvement on that offensive line and having a bounce back season.
30:22So I think this is twofold. Saquon Barkley pays off at his ADP, and then Devonta Smith doesn't quite hit.
30:29I would go Divergent and say if you want a ticket for Devonta Smith, try and redraft.
30:34Stay away in Dynasty. So my advice would be take a shot, if you like, in one of your redraft leagues on
30:42Devonta Smith on the chance that he hits this type of ceiling season.
30:46But for Dynasty, I would still stay away because you can at least wash your hands of it in your redraft because
30:53you're going to redraft the next year. You don't have to be tied.
30:57So I think the long and short of it is if you're tied to Devonta Smith, you want to have some kind of an exit plan.
31:06So if you don't have to buy and you don't have them, don't do so in Dynasty.
31:12Yeah, I look at – and the last thing I'd say too is Zay Flowers is one spot in front of Devonta Smith.
31:19Like younger offense, same thing. Looks like it could be expanding right from what we saw last year, new offensive coordinator.
31:26The difference is Lamar has shown consistently year over year that he has become a really good passer.
31:32It's nothing against Jalen, but there are limitations there.
31:35And Lamar also can create a little bit more too to buy time for his wide receivers.
31:41So I'm excited for Flowers. I would much rather have him right now.
31:45And it appears the market feels they're pretty much neck and neck with each other.
31:50I'm glad you said that, Pete. I'm glad you said that because Zay Flowers, there's no way they should be anywhere near close.
31:57So take advantage. It's like the beach ball. The baseball is looking like a beach ball when it's coming down and you
32:05need to blast that one out of the park.
32:08Make sure you're clicking Zay Flowers. All right, cool.
32:11So who do you got, Jeremiah, for the next guy?
32:14For me, it is Jadarian Price. I just think he's not going to quite hit the mark that people want.
32:20I don't like the price of Price. And right now he's RB19 and right there in that patch with Javante Williams.
32:27And we don't have cumulative measurements, numbers to hit for what he did in the NFL.
32:33This is his rookie season. But between George Helani, Emmanuel Wilson, I think there's going to be some carving up into his role.
32:40That isn't going to be... Look, if the Seahawks were finding trouble for Kenneth Walker, giving him a full workload, granted Zach
32:47Charbonnet is a much better player to a degree, and he's not in there right now.
32:53What would stop the Seahawks from making sure that they manage the load a little bit on Jadarian Price?
32:59I think you can... This is, again, go and redraft, but I would not bother in Dynasty formats.
33:05He isn't inflated in the rookie scene. If he's the 106 or the 107, Jadarian Price would not even be near there in another market.
33:13Take 27 rookie class, 28 rookie class, for instance.
33:16I just don't think Price is going to get there.
33:19And especially in Dynasty, when we talk about... It could be Kwon Lacy, Ahmad Hardy, Jaden Bao.
33:25There's a couple different running backs out there who I could see easily usurping into that top 20.
33:31And that's just before doing a deeper dive into that class.
33:35I don't see this Price staying, maintaining. I really don't see Price going from 19 pendulum, lower in number, up in value, versus it stagnating.
33:43And I think he goes backwards from here. Pete, what do you think?
33:47I don't have a strong opinion on Price. I think Price is a pretty safe Dynasty asset.
33:53I don't see the value. I mean, he's RB19 right now in Startup ADP.
33:57For this year, if Price was in next year's class or the year prior's class, like, yeah, that price for Price would have been pretty expensive.
34:06I think, unfortunately, you know, his price was relative to what the market was this year and what the class was.
34:13So I didn't have too many issues with where he was going.
34:17I think when I look at it, he's 22 years old.
34:20It's a bet on this offense. It's a bet on Seattle more than it is Price, in my opinion.
34:27Because the big question mark here is with Kubiak gone, right?
34:30What does the offense look like? Sam Darnold, this is a team that won a Super Bowl.
34:36I'm not taking anything away from them. It's good with the Vikings.
34:40And he showed us that he can go into another environment with another coach and do well as well.
34:46But it's always a little sketchy when you have the defensive-minded head coach, you know, looking for a new OC when there's turnover.
34:54And, you know, that is a question mark with this offense.
34:57How, you know, there's not a lot of weapons on the outside.
35:01There's not a lot of, you know, a lot that's going to give them room to breathe.
35:07So I do have some concern there. And I think they're going to have to lean on the run game here.
35:14I think Price should get a lot of volume.
35:17It's a matter of how efficient can he be?
35:20How good will this offense be to allow him to flourish?
35:23Also, the receiving volume is capped, right? People will say, and Podfather, I think we had a conversation about this.
35:30It might have been him or somebody else. But, you know, we haven't seen, you know, people say we haven't seen the receiving volume because of Jeremiah Love.
35:39That doesn't mean I can just project Price to become a good receiver in the NFL either.
35:45Like, I didn't see it in college. Like, I can't just assume it's going to happen in the NFL, you know, because
35:52he had somebody in front of him that was better and he wasn't given the opportunity.
35:57I think regardless, if you are good enough, you'll get the opportunities to put it on tape and they'll find a way
36:05to get you the football if you're that talented.
36:08So I don't think Price is the most talented player, so there's some risk there.
36:13But it's hard, right? 22 years old, going to what we think is a really good football team.
36:18They just won the Super Bowl. But how good will the offense be?
36:23What's the ceiling, you know, now that Kubiak is gone is my bigger concern than it is the talent of Price.
36:30So I don't see him moving too, too much, Jeremiah, just because some of the guys ahead of him I can see losing value.
36:38And then the injection of a new class next year should definitely push some guys down.
36:43But I can see a couple of guys that are a little older, like Saquon Barkley, you know, if he regresses or
36:50maybe Bucky Irving, who's ahead of him right now, who there's some question marks to.
36:55I can see some of these guys sliding down as well where they end up going behind Price if Price has a
37:02good enough season with this next year's class coming in.
37:06So I get what you're saying. I think you're making more of an argument on the talent.
37:11I'm making more of an argument on just like the fundamentals of like, you know, first round running back, good team, and
37:18the guys going ahead of him, I can see aging out a little bit or just, you know, just losing value because
37:26they might be overvalued to begin with. If we get 15 to 20 carries week one for Jadarian Price and you throw
37:33everything out the window and then he gets maybe five targets, three receptions, bangs one into the end zone, you'll be bullish
37:40and you'll be feeling good about that. So we shall see on Jadarian Price.
37:45Now it's funny, Pete, you talked to us a couple weeks ago about Blake Corum being a player who's going to get more expensive.
37:53So divergently, Kyron Williams. I'm glad you have Kyron Williams because I've talked about, I flipped Cam Scadbo ahead of Kyron Williams.
38:00I've been bearish. I've been on different shows before talking about selling Kyron Williams.
38:05So I would love to hear what you have to say about Kyron Williams being less expensive next year and going down in his price.
38:13Yeah, I feel bad because I just hugged and held the mic a decent amount of time there.
38:19And so now I got to go into my rant here about my next player.
38:24But Kyron Williams is a player that I've been on and I've, you know, been a beneficiary of his good play the
38:31last few years while there have been many detractors.
38:34But we are fluid. You know, I think the best dynasty analysts and fantasy players, you know, can be fluid with situations, right?
38:42I mean, Kyron has been extremely successful in what he's been able to do and accomplish as a fifth round pick.
38:48But the truth is, I mean, you know, the explosiveness is just not there.
38:53You also have Blake Corum nipping on his heels.
38:56I think Blake Corum did enough last year to showcase that he can, you know, and needs to be showcased in this offense.
39:04I think he'll provide some pop and some burst in this offense, some explosiveness that could be lacking a little bit of explosiveness.
39:11I love Puka Nakua. He's really a big finesse player and he's a really smart and smooth route runner.
39:17He's very savvy. Sorry, Devontae, you know, he's getting a little bit older too.
39:22So like the explosiveness is starting to slow down slightly a little bit too.
39:27He's really more of a man of his craft with his route running ability.
39:31And so this team could use some explosiveness and Kyron doesn't provide that.
39:36I get it. Kyron was given an extension, but there's a very real out in his contract after this season.
39:42It's very possible. And if not, at least the ability to just, you know, go more towards a 1A, 1B situation, which
39:49is really why I have him where I do.
39:52I mean, he's ranked as the RB 16 right now in startup.
39:56And then there's going to be a lot of very, very talented players that come out like Ahmad Hardy.
40:03You have the kid from Ole Miss as well.
40:06You have a lot of really, really good running backs coming in next year that are going to be explosive.
40:12They're going to be really fun to project for fantasy football.
40:16Of course they have to do it on the NFL field and prove that they can, but their measurements and their draft
40:23stock is going to be really, really enticing. And it's going to push guys like Kyron Williams who don't have those measurables,
40:30but it's really kind of like Javante. Like when you look at Kyron and Javante similar, right?
40:36Where it's like not crazy explosiveness, but playing great offenses.
40:39The difference is Javante's in an offense that has way less competition, in my opinion, than Kyron does.
40:45And so there's some concern. And Javante's also four spots cheaper than Kyron Williams and was actually, was a better talent coming out of college.
40:53So that's my take on Kyron. I really like him, but I don't think RB 16 is in the cards for him next year.
41:01I just don't see it happening. So this is fun for some notes that I have for Kyron Williams.
41:08When I had the cell show three straight years, fancy points per game has gone down 21.3 to 17 to 15.5.
41:14Kyron Williams also went down the last two years from 316 rush attempts to 259.
41:19Then your direct handcuff, Blake Corum, who you're bullish on Pete, I'm bullish on Blake Corum, went from 58 rush attempts his
41:27rookie season up to 145 rush attempts. So I like that a 7.2 fancy points per game across 17 games last year for Blake Corum.
41:35So we can see that kind of eating into if that, if we get a little bit of a role increase for
41:42Blake Corum, that 7.2 points can increase as well.
41:45Maybe it's eight to nine, anything that's chopping into fancy points per game, which we've seen fallen all the way down to 15.5 for Kyron Williams.
41:54Sometimes we can get a nasty committee to where it kind of sucks to a degree, where you're at least more happy
42:01to have Corum because you paid such a high price inflated, which I think inflation is a big deal these days.
42:08I think we're getting inflation, Pete, with Kyron Williams.
42:11And the fumbles are an issue. In the last three seasons, Kyron is tied for the most lost fumbles in the last three seasons.
42:19And the fumbles are happening in tight games as well.
42:22How long is that going to go for Sean McVeigh?
42:25And the other thing is you're out of rookie purgatory.
42:29For whatever reason, Rams rookies don't take off immediately.
42:32If they go into year two, all of a sudden they have more of a trust factor.
42:37We saw that last year, Pete, with Blake Corum.
42:40And I think it's just going to continue on that pendulum.
42:44So long-term loyalty, if you've been a Blake Corum holder, I think you're going to be happy.
42:49And I think you're going to be frustrated with Kyron Williams.
42:53But again, he's had some kind of a stranglehold.
42:56When I see that dwindling down of the fancy points per game, that's huge signals to me that Kyron is overpriced right now.
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