0:00Good morning, friends and enemies, and welcome back into the very first fantasy football video of the 2026 season. This is how I believe, in my humble, expert,
0:11never wrong, sometimes early opinion, the first round of 2026 fantasy football drafts should go. This is one quarterback leagues, primarily PPR
0:22scoring, which leaves us with Bijan Robinson at the very top, the 101 for the 2026 fantasy football season. He just ripped off 2,300 yards from
0:32scrimmage, and it kind of felt like a a tame season for him, to be honest, and he's just hitting his prime, obviously.
0:37He's just hitting his peak. And it felt tame because he scored 11 touchdowns.
0:40When you look at all the other players within this mix, within this mold, the guys who scored at the top of fantasy
0:45leaderboards, it was because the number of touchdowns that they typically have.
0:48Now, when we're looking at Atlanta's situation, Tyler Allgeier is no longer there. He is in Arizona now. And that matters because they were forcing him
0:55the ball on the goal line, obviously.
0:56Allgeier and Bijan last year had the same amount of rushes inside the 5-yard line, all right? Some dudes that had more carries inside the 5-yard line last
1:04year than Bijan Robinson. Jacquory Croskey-Merritt, Sean Tucker, Devin Singletary, Chris Rodriguez. It is important to note that Brian Robinson has now been brought into Atlanta. I
1:14don't think he'll play as significant as a role as Tyler Allgeier did, but I do think they got him for a a nice discount
1:21based on what Tyler Allgeier ended up getting paid. And I do think they'll use him to spell Bijan, but even last year,
1:26you could see the significant change in just overall touches, production, and how they wanted that offense to flow through Bijan Robinson. So, I think you
1:33take that a step down further in terms of where the touch play is going to go, more so towards Bijan. Last year, the
1:39Falcons ranked 10th in run blocking in their offensive line, which was really surprising, given the fact that Drew Dalman left to go over to Chicago, and
1:47was one of the big reasons that they were so good in the run blocking unit.
1:50They also lost Kaleb McGary and Storm Norton, their tackles, for the entire season early on in the the last year, and they'll be getting both of those
1:56guys back now. The big question here is obviously quarterback play. Can we get sustainable QB play from either Penix or Tua? We saw Tua dice it up with Devon
2:03Achane this year. We also have Kevin Stefanski coming in as the head coach.
2:07We have his former OC Tommy Rees from Cleveland coming in as well. Bijan's an OC proof guy, pretty much a quarterback
2:14proof guy. The other thing to note here too is like even if the quarterback play is not great, they're still playing in
2:18the NFC South. They still get to play Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay six times a year. Most of their games are
2:24going to be in good weather. Most of their games are going to be played in the dome. And I would also argue that
2:27the poor quarterback play from last year factored in to the reason that Bijan only had seven rushing touchdowns. So, that felt like a little bit of a floor
2:35season for Bijan if if we're being honest with each other here. So, Bijan will be my number one. We'll move to
2:40number two, which is Jahmyr Gibbs and I actually have zero zero issues with anyone that wants to take Jahmyr Gibbs over Bijan at one. I feel like arguing
2:48the one two three, anyone in like the top five, you're wasting your breath.
2:51Like none of them are going to lose you your season. Jahmyr Gibbs, similar to Bijan, loses Todd Gurley this year.
2:56Jahmyr Gibbs now loses David Montgomery.
2:58He's in Houston and it's crazy to say because Jahmyr Gibbs over the last two seasons has scored 18 and 20 touchdowns,
3:04somehow comes into this year with touchdown upside on top of those numbers. That that might be one of the the crazier story lines going into this
3:12year. Like he somehow has scored almost 40 touchdowns over the last two years and has untapped touchdown upside and potential. Last year he had eight
3:19carries inside the five-yard line. David Montgomery had 14, which was eighth most among running backs. If you take a look at this chart, this is the splits with
3:25Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery playing together versus without them.
3:28Obviously, this is a huge storyline.
3:30Anytime David Montgomery's out, Jahmyr Gibbs goes [ __ ] nutty in the fantasy world. You can see in the out split
3:35column there and also just the green column to the right of it. His rushing yards go up by 43 yards. He scores
3:42almost an extra half a touchdown per game. Eight and a half PPR points more per game when David Montgomery is not on
3:48the field. Now, they do bring in Isiah Pacheco here. So, he will play a little bit of the replacement role for David
3:53Montgomery. And even last year we saw David Montgomery get pretty pretty strongly phased out of the overall offense in favor of Gibbs. And I think
4:00similar to Brian Robinson going into Atlanta, like we'll see an even watered-down version of what that split ended up being. I think we'll see the
4:07same thing with Pacheco in Detroit. He's not the player that David Montgomery is, and I think they know that there. The
4:12Lions do bring in Drew Petzing as their offensive coordinator, which I I don't love for the overall offensive structure, but he was the former uh OC
4:20in Arizona. They always had like pretty strong ground games as long as their running back stayed healthy. So, I'm not overly worried about the offensive
4:26coordinator in Detroit, their system being all wonky or whatever. They have so much continuity with the players on that team that I think it's, you know,
4:32business as usual for them. One of the crazier parts of this, too, the Lions finished 9 and 8 last year, and they are
4:39the fourth-place team in the NFC North division. So, while we don't know exactly who they're playing, like they'll obviously get the Bears, they'll
4:45get the Vikings, they'll get the Packers, they will have a fourth-place schedule. And that's something that I think people need to like understand a
4:52little bit more. We saw that almost taken to the top of the spectrum last year, like the Patriots, right? They went from really bad to amazing, thanks
4:59a lot in part to Drake Maye's quarterback play, but the fact that they had a fourth-place schedule. Like, you don't really think about it now, but
5:04that [ __ ] matters. When you're the fourth-place team in the division, you get the fourth-place schedule for the upcoming year, and the Lions will have
5:10an incredibly easy schedule. Another team that plays in the dome. They might literally be the best team ever to have a fourth-place schedule. So, give me
5:17Gibbs, give me that schedule. Moving on down, I've got Puka Nacua at the number three spot. Right now, his ADP is fourth
5:23overall. So, I would be picking him one spot higher. I'm just going to assume the rehab stint is in the rearview come
5:30summer, and that won't be a problem for him. You guys can do whatever you want for that. Last year, Puka missed a game
5:36and still outscored JSN. He outscored Amon-Ra St. Brown by 50 points, Ja'Marr Chase by over 60 points. Stafford is back, he's re-signed, Sean McVay is
5:45back. This is just one of them I'm not about to overthink. Next up at the 104, we've got Jackson Smith-Njigba out there in Seattle. Insane breakout,
5:54obviously. Depending on what source you use, he was somewhere between like a 36 and a 40% target share in that Seattle
6:01offense. It's one of the highest target shares in a single season ever. And there wasn't a ton of change in that
6:07offense. They still have busted Cooper Kupp. Van Jefferson they resigned or extended. He's not really a high-volume player. He didn't really make much
6:15difference in JSN's target share last year. I really do like Tutu Atwell, but he never really got you know, a crack at the offense. And
6:21with the veterans still in place there, I don't see him getting a bigger role change. So, I think this offense is just
6:25going to run through JSN, through JSN, through JSN. We'll see what their ground game looks like. You know, they obviously got rid of Cam Akers. Zach
6:31Charbonnet is coming back from the ACL.
6:33They drafted Kendre Miller in the first round. So, I'm I'm imagining it's going to run through him, but we don't know
6:37how successful it's going to be. They might have to push more through the air.
6:40I will say I will say I'm definitely legitimately concerned about them losing Klint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator, who goes to the Raiders in
6:48the head coaching position. Their new offensive coordinator, let me make sure I get this right. Brian Flurry was the former San Francisco run game
6:55coordinator {slash} tight ends coach.
6:58Shanahan, I guess, you want to just connect that string there. Connect the dots.
7:03Whatever. JSN, obviously, full-fledged superstar at this point.
7:07Very little target competition in that offense. They will have a first-place schedule, which will be relatively tough there. You know, they get the Rams
7:14twice. San Fran will be a lot healthier on the defensive side of the ball this year. Arizona will be terrible, but
7:19that's great for everybody. He's just an incredibly high-floor player in PPR leagues who might see a bit of a dip overall just based on schedule and not
7:27having Klint Kubiak in that offense anymore. Let's move to number five. That would be Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals. His current ADP is three
7:34overall. So, people like him right in the tier below Bijan, right in the tier below Gibbs, and then it's immediately Ja'Marr Chase. So, I've got him as five.
7:42Again, I have no problem, honestly, if you wanted to take any of these guys at three, at two, at four, it's all kind of
7:48like the same tier to me. He's another extremely high-floor player, has incredible chemistry with Joe Burrow.
7:53But, I will say, like, I I as someone who drafted Ja'Marr as my first-round pick in in like my highest, you know, my
8:00my the league that mattered most to me last year, I preferred him with Flacco more than I did with Burrow. If any of
8:06you guys were Chase owners last year, you probably felt the same. I think when Burrow came back, he gave Higgins a lot
8:11of very very valuable targets. Most of the deep balls, a lot of the red zone looks ended up going to Higgins there,
8:16which is always going to be the case when you have two superstar receivers on the outside. I would say the more
8:21legitimate concern as it relates to like just pure fantasy upside for the Bengals in this passing offense is the overall improvement of their defense through the
8:30off-season. That's in theory, at least.
8:32So, they add Dexter Lawrence, they add Boye Mafe, they add Jonathan Allen. The draft was basically entirely defense as it should have been for them. So, they
8:40will have an improved defense. How much that actually comes to, uh, you know, the forefront, how much that comes to reality will be the
8:47difference-maker of whether or not they need to score 40 points a game, whether or not they need to score 35 points a
8:51game in order to keep up. But, at the end of the day, I don't think there's any way that you could genuinely sit
8:56here and argue that their horrendous defense over the last, you know, two to three years hasn't contributed to the insane passing statistical upside that
9:04we've seen from Burrow, from Chase, from Higgins. So, you know, if I have to like go out of my way to make an
9:09argument about why I have Chase five instead of three, that would be the one thing I'm looking at. Next up, we got
9:15Christian McCaffrey. Another dude where, listen, if you had him last year and you wanted to take him one overall this year, I don't really have any
9:21logical argument against that. He's old, he's a year older, but he still has zero competition. They drafted Keelan Black in the third round, but most people said
9:30that that was a reach, and Kyle Shanahan just like continues to add guys through the draft that never pan out in this
9:37backfield. It's like everything and every down and every play and every situation just runs through CMC as long as he is alive and on the field, and I
9:45just don't really see that changing. And Breece Robinson again is out in Atlanta there. It's like even if he averages 3.5
9:51yards per carry again, his target numbers, if you look at the makeup of this offense, they did bring in Mike Evans. So like that will, you know,
9:58vacuum up a decent amount of offense, but George Kittle has the torn Achilles very late in the year. Uh Jauan Jennings
10:04is now in Minnesota.
10:05Brandon Aiyuk, first-class ticket to the loony bin right now. So a lot of the targets that had been what made up
10:10this Niners offense over the last few years. And and and George Kittle might be ready for like week one, week two,
10:15whatever. And and maybe slowly gets incremented into the offense, but I think with all these moving parts like CMC is probably in line to be, you know,
10:22the, if not the number two target in this offense for a very, very large portion of this season again. So again,
10:29we saw his rushing ability kind of slip back and move away from the overall explosiveness that he had when he was a
10:35little bit younger. But then we also saw it not matter. Like he put up an insane fantasy season last year, one of the
10:40best of all time. And it was because the amount of involvement he had in the passing game, and that's probably just
10:45going to be the same. So if you want to bet on him just being older and getting hurt or something like that, you can be
10:49my guest. Number seven, we've got another running back. So we're we're kind of moving back to form where it's like workhorse running backs are are are
10:55getting respect again in in fantasy land here. And we've got Jonathan Taylor out there in Indy. His current ADP is seven.
11:00I have him at seven. He was just a complete [ __ ] alien last year. And it was like despite losing Will Fries on
11:05the line, Ryan Kelly on the line to the Vikings, they bounced back and were one of the strongest run-blocking lines in
11:10the NFL last year. There's zero competition once again for Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. You're just getting a workhorse running back one,
11:18game-breaking ability, very high floor.
11:20The obvious elephant in the room here is Daniel Jones and his return timetable for the torn Achilles that he suffered in week 14 last year. They re-signed
11:29him. He is their quarterback of the near future. And while I expect his his mobility to be a bit limited, for sure,
11:35at least for the first half of the season, I do think he still ends up suiting up for the very large majority
11:40of of the Colts games in 2026. I think we've just made a lot of progress in the last, you know, few years, five years,
11:46whatever, as it relates to Achilles tears and and players' ability to like rehab from them and get back to 80% of
11:53themselves relatively quickly. And and quarterback is one of those positions where you're not a running back or receiver where you need incredible
12:00explosiveness to get off the line of scrimmage at all times. So, I think DJ will be fine and I think we'll see a
12:05somewhat similar offense to what we saw last year in in Indy. So, JT should be more of the same from what we saw last
12:12year. Obviously, he's kind of below these other guys just cuz his pass-catching ability does not hit the ceiling that these other guys do. But,
12:18you want to talk about pass-catching abilities and a ceiling, that is Amon-Ra St. Brown. He's coming in at number eight for me, just as consistent as they
12:25come. He's just a top-five fantasy wide receiver, if not top-three guy, year in, year out. It's just you know, you're never going to regret having Amon-Ra St.
12:32Brown on your fantasy team. It's just like how many years in a row do we need that to be the case in order for it to
12:38just become a fact, right? And I I I think we're there. I think we're there.
12:41Number nine. And and I I I see a lot of people putting this guy, CeeDee Lamb, above Amon-Ra St. Brown, eight over
12:48nine. Not one I'd really argue too heavily against. If you're looking for a little bit more ceiling, Lamb feels like the guy that can give that to you. He's
12:56obviously a lot better than what he posted last year. Um he's dealing with some injuries, but you know, you can't just not talk about the emergence of
13:03George Pickens. It's very, very, very real and I think that does hurt the overall ceiling of CeeDee Lamb and the other pass-catchers in this group. He's
13:10He's one of the best in the game just on a pure, you know, just receiver talent level basis, plus what he did back in
13:162023 is like the ceiling that we all kind of envisioned for him. I think a lot of people that drafted him last year
13:21assumed that that would be the case for him again, but it's going going hard to sniff that, man. It's really going to be
13:26hard to get there when you have a another legitimate 1,200, 1,300 yd receiver on the other side of the field.
13:32There are just simply going to be games that are the George Pickens games. Like we saw those a lot this year, and CD
13:37will kind of take a backseat. And the other argument to be made here, I think against CD a little bit, is is very
13:42similar to what I said about Ja'Marr Chase, is that their defense will no longer, in my opinion, be like a bottom
13:49three, bottom five, bottom two defense going into this year. They'll I'm I'm sure they'll still be they'll still be in the bottom half, and they they they
13:56they won't be like a defense that you need to shy away from, but that matters for fantasy upside when the team needs
14:01to throw the ball 40 times a game, when you need Dak Prescott to score 34 points a game in order to keep up with the
14:06opposing teams cuz they score on every possession. That matters a lot in fantasy, and you know, the addition of Caleb Downs, bringing on Quinnen
14:13Williams last year, like I do think they'll just be an overall better unit in Dallas this year that doesn't give up
14:1835 points a game. So, that wraps up the first nine. I will say like this is where I felt real good about the first
14:25nine. In whatever order you want to to throw them out, and I'm almost like as long as I get a top nine pick, probably
14:30more so like top six-ish, as long as I get in that top-ish half of the draft, I feel pretty good. Once you get down to
14:37the 10 spot, once you're in the double digits, there there's a group of like five or six guys that I think you can
14:43make really strong cases for being at the 10, being at the 11, being at the 12. The guy that I put up here at the
14:49number 10 spot is James Cook. His current ADP is 10. I have him ranked at 10. He's just gotten better and better
14:55each year. And they're trusting him with more work each and every year. He had 309 carries in 2025, which was up from
15:01207 the year before. That is a a massive jump. And for the first time ever in his career, he had more carries inside the
15:075-yd line than Josh Allen did. He had 14 to Josh Allen's 13. So, they're now trusting him in an area where they
15:13didn't previously trust him in that led to a lot of fantasy points kind of just dripping off his bottom line. That's not
15:20really the case anymore. The other thing, too, and this was something I kind of hammered away to you guys last year, like rushing touchdowns for a
15:26player many, many, many, many, many times is simply just the results of being in a good offense. Rushing touchdowns are a product of a good
15:34offense, and we saw that be the case again last year with many of the players who just simply put up the highest
15:40rushing touchdown totals, whether it was James Cook or Derrick Henry. It's like, yes, you're in a very good offense.
15:44You're going to score a lot of goal line touchdowns, and that will be the case again this year. They are always very
15:48good on offense. They will always have a lot of touchdown opportunities for guys like James Cook, and James Cook was kind
15:53of at the forefront of the insufferable like touchdown regression argument every single off season. Like, of course he's not going to score 18 touchdowns again.
16:02Cool, he scores 14. Another great fantasy pick. Buffalo has been Listen to this stat. Buffalo has been a top six scoring offense in points per game for
16:11six straight years, and top three in five of those six years. Cook is not a fluky touchdown scorer at this point.
16:18He's just a great back in a great offense that also provides a ton of explosive runs where he can actually score from the 50-yard line on top of
16:26now getting a bunch of goal line carries. Do I wish he caught a few more passes? Yes, I do. Like, he is certainly
16:32capable of doing that. He's a very good athlete out of the backfield, but they like giving that third down role to Ty
16:35Johnson. I will say Joe Brady is now the head coach in Buffalo, and he loves James Cook. You can see over the last
16:41couple years as he was the OC, they've gotten him more and more and more and more involved in the offense, and they
16:46bring in Pete Carmichael as their offensive coordinator. Now, Pete Carmichael was the OC in New Orleans from '09 to 2023. That was with Sean
16:55Payton, obviously, the entire time. And then he was the senior offensive assistant in Denver in 2024. If there is a more pass-friendly scheme for running
17:03backs than Sean Payton's over the last two decades, point me in that direction, please, cuz I don't think there is. So,
17:09I do think there's a chance that we see more pass-catching script and upside from James Cook based on the coaching staff coming in and the scheme that
17:16might be implemented a little bit more here. So, Cook's my number 10. I had so much trouble with 11, 12, and 13 here.
17:23And we're only doing 11 and 12 for this video. 11, I'm I'm going to put Justin Jefferson back inside the first round.
17:31His current ADP is 12th. I put him at 11. Obviously, the entire offseason conversation is going to be about Kyler Murray. I think he's likely 90%, 95%
17:40going to be the starter there in Minnesota over J.J. McCarthy. I still think there's definitely risk there. You know, you bake in a little bit of
17:47percentage risk that it is somehow McCarthy wins the job, whatever.
17:50And and I think the overall conversation needs to be more about Kyler. If you followed my videos last year, I was
17:55very, very off Kyler. People loved Kyler, I was not a fan of him. I just think the NFL kind of figured him out. I
17:59thought he had a lot of trouble just throwing over the middle of the field. I didn't want him to invest in Marvin
18:03Harrison, some because of Kyler, some more because of Drew Petzing, and I don't believe he can run a very creative, successful pass offense there.
18:11But, Kyler at this stage, I think he's kind of shown us what he is as an as an NFL passing pocket quarterback. Now, KOC
18:18is a [ __ ] genius, and I think he can get a lot out of guys that might not be able to get that much out of themselves.
18:24He's an elevator of talent, right? And I I think Kyler's one of the most talented players on the field every time he steps
18:29on the field, but is he as good of a thrower as Jefferson has had in previous years, whether it was Kirk Cousins or
18:35Sam Darnold, just from a pure arm standpoint, like accuracy, consistency?
18:39Probably not, but I'd still like to see say Justin Jefferson is, you know, the best receiver in the league. And I think
18:45a lot of people will probably point back to like, look what Kyler did with DeAndre Hopkins his first year in Arizona. I think it was back in 2020,
18:52D-Hop went 160 targets, 115 catches, 1,400 yards, six touchdowns. But again, like that was almost six [ __ ] years ago. It was like when the league was
19:01first kind of coming around Kyler Murray. He hasn't thrown for more than 24 passing touchdowns since 2020. And he's never thrown for more than 4,000
19:08yards. So, you have Jefferson, you've got Addison, you've got Hockenson, you've got Jauan Jennings. Kyler is just 28 years old and you know, we've seen
19:17time and time again now over the last half decade to decade, many NFL players' careers simply aren't linear. They're simply not like, okay, they're not doing
19:24well, so they are bad. A lot of it is they're not doing well, likely a bad situation, put him in a good situation,
19:30he could play a lot better. So, I don't want to completely write off Kyler. I don't want to completely write off
19:35Minnesota passing offense because of what we've seen from J.J. McCarthy last year, from what we've seen from Kyler the last few years. So, I I I I am
19:44cautiously optimistic. Again, with all of these picks, you kind of like weigh the pros, the cons, things you like, things you don't like, and then you kind
19:51of fit them into different slots based on that. So, he will be 11 and then I've been going back and forth on Saquon and
19:58Ashton Jeanty for the 12th spot. And I ultimately decided on Saquon Barkley here. And I think the biggest addition to Philly is by subtraction, by a long
20:09shot. a Philadelphia Eagles fan, getting Kevin Patullo out of that situation and not being the offensive coordinator, he might have been the woat. He might have
20:17been the woat offensive coordinator that's ever set foot on a football field. He's no longer there. They replaced him with Sean Mannion. Mannion,
20:23former Green Bay uh quarterbacks coach.
20:26So, again, I like him coming from the LaFleur tree. I just like a mix up from Patullo cuz he was just so [ __ ] bad
20:33at calling plays last year. And like I just said, I just don't think careers are very linear. Where it was like, all
20:37right, Saquon was bad and then he was really good and now he's kind of bad again. I think they're going to have no
20:42choice but to go extremely run heavy in this offense, too. A.J. Brown, I'm sure is getting moved in a couple weeks. You
20:48know, I I I just think Saquon goes back to being the main focus of an offense that at the end of the day is still
20:52going to be a good offense. You're getting a workhorse in an offense and that's something not to underestimate in fantasy football. It might not be as
20:59flashy as 2024 Saquon, it might not be as fun as some of the younger Saquon years, but he has so little competition.
21:05This will be a very strong offensive line. This will be an above average offense. This will be an offense that I
21:10think leans on their running back. So, I I'm very much assuming Saquon with a more successful system getting 20 touches a game again will again be
21:19viable for a first round pick. I think there is a good chance that Achane eventually makes his way into my top 12
21:24throughout the course of the summer, but I think I I need to see a little bit of uh cohesion in Las Vegas first for me to
21:30really move him up that spot. So, that is how the first round of 2026 fantasy football drafts will go for people at
21:37Simply No Ball. We will be ramping up our video content schedule, of course, as the summer progresses. I'm looking to do one to two videos per week right now.
21:45As we get into June, maybe that goes up to two to three. You guys know the deal.
21:48I've been doing this for a very very very very very long time. And while I might have taken the dynasty season off,
21:53redraft is now back in full effect, and I would never leave you with your hands out. We are here. If you enjoyed the
21:59video, hit the button that looks like this. Love y'all. Smooches.
