The Show: Scary Market Score Comps, Jadarian Price's Outlook, and More

JJ Zachariason says you can 'kind of buy' the prediction that Blake Corum will push for 1,000 yards this season. Last year Corum was efficient (5.1 yards per attempt) and was only 200 yards away from 1,000 despite not being heavily used early in the season. He notes that Corum missed time due to a fumble in a Thursday night game against San Francisco, and if that kind of early-game benching doesn't happen, a scenario with a 50-50 ground split with Kyron Williams is plausible, giving Corum a path to 1,000 yards.

JJ Zachariason is buying the Athletic's prediction that Blake Corum could push for 1,000 yards this season. Corum was efficient last year with 5.1 yards per attempt and fell just 200 yards short of 1,000 despite limited early-season usage and a fumble in a Thursday night game against San Francisco that resulted in him being benched. Zachariason notes that if that fumble and subsequent benching don't occur, Corum could see a more balanced 50-50 split with Kyron Williams on the ground, increasing his volume. He acknowledges Corum's efficiency and opportunity for increased touches down the stretch.

JJ Zachariason has many Brandon Aiyuk teams in best ball but is cutting bait on him. If Aiyuk had his head on straight off the field, he could be a top-100 player going in the 200s; if everything was fine and he went to Washington, he'd probably be drafted around round seven after the Jaguars guys and Brian Thomas Jr., before Cortland Sutton-type players. However, the off-field concerns and year away from football create negative market sentiment that Zachariason is no longer willing to fight against.

JJ Zachariason is skeptical of the Charlie Kolar receiving threat narrative despite reports and the Athletic ranking him 14th among Chargers' most important players. Zachariason notes Kolar has peaked at 142 receiving yards in his career and worries about his ceiling as a fantasy asset. While he'd consider Kolar in point-per-snap leagues or as a 20th-round best-ball dart, Zachariason expects Kolar to be primarily a streamer in season-long leagues. He cites McDaniel's system preference for blocking tight ends, competition from Aranda Gadsden, David Njoku, and wide receivers, and questions whether a 13-14% target share ceiling is viable for consistent fantasy production.

JJ Zachariason is skeptical of the Charlie Kolar receiving threat narrative despite reports and The Athletic ranking him 14th among Chargers' most important players. He notes Kolar has peaked at 142 receiving yards in his career and worries about his true ceiling. While he'd consider Kolar in point-per-snap leagues or as a 20th-round best-ball dart, he expects Kolar to be primarily a streamer in season-long leagues. The McDaniel offense values blocking and all-around tight end play, and with David Njoku, Aranda Gadsden, and capable wide receivers in the mix, Kolar's target share ceiling is likely only 13-14%, limiting his fantasy upside.

Chris Godwin's scary comp is Robert Woods in 2022 (when Woods changed environments and his career declined). Market score does not like Godwin because he was not very good last year. JJ Zachariason has drafted Godwin at times (he was one of his highest roster wide receivers on DraftKings at one point) but only by telling himself a story that last year he was banged up and recovering from injury. The comp is valid as a cautionary tale, though Zachariason doesn't think this is the outcome.

JJ Zachariason notes that Chris Alave saw a 'rocket ship' breakout after Rashid Shahid left the Saints, indicating that Shahid had been commanding target share from Alave. This demonstrates Shahid's ability to impact target distribution and supports the view that Shahid is an elite-efficient receiver capable of taking targets from teammates.

JJ Zachariason notes that Rashid Shahid took away target share from Chris Alave when both were on the Saints last year, and after Shahid left, Alave experienced a 'rocket ship' in production. This demonstrates Shahid's ability to command targets and his efficiency as a receiver, providing context for Alave's improved outlook once Shahid departed.

JJ Zachariason warns that DJ Moore has a scary floor despite an interesting ceiling. The scary market score comp is Julio Jones in 2021, who scored 6.4 PPR points per game after switching from Atlanta to Tennessee. DJ Moore is in year nine and switched teams similarly. While Zachariason doesn't think this comp will happen, it serves as a cautionary tale about downside risk, as Julio Jones was a horrible pick that year.

JJ Zachariason notes that Darnell Washington received a report about losing weight and being used more in the offense, which caused his ADP to spike in drafts. Zachariason was planning to draft Washington in round 20 but someone took him in round 19 ahead of him due to the report. This illustrates how day-of reports can cause immediate ADP movement as drafters seek exposure before broader market adjustment.

JJ Zachariason is drafting Isaiah Likely and thinks he's a really interesting player this year. Likely's scary comp is John Smith in 2021 (when Smith moved to New England and scored 4.5 PPR points per game), but Zachariason notes similarities in overall ADP, positional ADP, and market score. Likely will play slot on slot role, which is a positive indicator Zachariason is tracking for tight ends.

JJ Zachariason cautions against clustering Jadarian Price with front-half first-round running backs; Price was drafted at the end of the first round and historically back-half first-round RBs significantly underperform front-half picks. Zachariason ranks Price closer to second-round RB archetypes like Ramondre Stevenson and Jalen Warren than to year-two backs like Bijan Robinson or Trey Judkins. Price has never demonstrated lead-back production at any level, and reports of other running backs being involved in Seattle's backfield make sense given his profile; Zachariason cautions against using teammate competition as the primary justification for drafting Price rather than his own talent, citing this as a pattern that leads to busts. He describes Price as 'a highly volatile prospect' with a wide range of outcomes and expects his ADP to continue slipping from the end of the fifth round (around pick 61 on DraftKings) into the sixth-round range as reports of backfield competition circulate. Price's scary comp is Caleb Johnson from 2025; both are rookies with similar market scores (Price 24.3 vs. Johnson 20.4), and while a market score of 24 isn't inherently horrible within the top-120 context, it is bad for where Price is being drafted.

JJ Zachariason cautions against comparing Jadarian Price to first-round running backs like B.J. Robinson or Jameer Gibbs; Price is more comparable to second-round backs like Ramondre Stevenson or Jalen Warren. Market score likes him in the Stevenson/Warren tier rather than the year-two tier (Judkins, Tootin). His DraftKings ADP is around pick 61 (end of fifth round), roughly a full round and a half below where he's being drafted in some circles. However, Zachariason expresses concern about justifying Price's draft value based on teammate competition rather than his own talent; Price has never been a lead back in his career, and reports of committee involvement with George Helani and Emmanuel Wilson create volatility. Zachariason cautions against using the 'who else is going to get the volume' argument repeatedly, as it's a hallmark of running back busts. Market score for Price is 24.3 (compared to Caleb Johnson's 20.4), which is bad for where he's being drafted. Zachariason doesn't expect the Caleb Johnson outcome because Price has better draft capital and the Steelers have shown they can use multiple backs effectively (Jalen Warren, Kenny Gainwell), but cautions against assuming lack of competition means safety. Despite these concerns, Zachariason will target Price when he falls into the Ramondre Stevenson/Jalen Warren tier; in a recent DraftKings draft, Price fell to pick 70 (seventh round), and Zachariason built a strong zero-RB team around him with Jackson Smith-Njigba, creating a Seattle stack. At that price point, he views Price as a value play.

JJ Zachariason notes that the Seahawks did not draft Jeremiah Love with the expectation that he would be a dominant force in the backfield, unlike some other recent running back selections. This uncertainty around the running back situation contributes to the possibility that Seattle will need to pass more than they did last year.

JJ Zachariason would be very hesitant with Khalil Shakir due to his very low average depth of target (ADOT). Analysis of wide receiver hit rates by previous season ADOT from 2014-2025 shows that late-round wide receivers with ADOT below 9 yards underperformed versus ADP expectation by about 0.7 points per game on average. Shakir's low ADOT makes him a risky late-round pick.

JJ Zachariason is 'a little bit lower than the market on Kyron Williams this year' and was also lower on him last year. While Williams played above expectation based on ADP last year, the Rams' offense dominated and Zachariason doesn't believe that level of offensive dominance can be banked on year over year. The backfield split with Blake Corum is expected to be more even, with Williams getting the most important touches (goal line, receiving), but the overall volume picture is less favorable than his ADP suggests. Kyron Williams' scary comp is Alvin Kamara from last year (year nine for Kamara vs. year five for Williams). Overall ADP, positional ADP, and market scores are very similar. The comp speaks to what could happen with Williams in terms of effectiveness and efficiency not necessarily being there, but him being a volume getter, which has been helpful for him in fantasy. Market score does not hate Kyron Williams, which is why Zachariason has been on the edge about putting him as an avoid.

JJ Zachariason is 'a little bit lower than the market on Kyron Williams this year' and was also lower on him last year. While Williams played above expectation based on ADP last year due to receiving work and goal-line touches, the Rams' offense dominated and that level of offensive dominance cannot be banked on year-over-year. Zachariason expects regression in the Rams' defense and uncertainty in the running back situation to limit Williams' upside relative to his current draft position. Williams' scary comp is last year's Alvin Kamara (year nine); while the NFL years differ (Williams is in year five), their overall ADP, positional ADP, and market score are very similar. However, market score does not hate Kyron Williams, which makes Zachariason uncertain about whether to label him an avoid.

JJ Zachariason views Marshawn Lloyd as more undervalued than Jaden Blue despite injury history. Lloyd is a really good one-B backfield prospect who could become the one-A if Josh Jacobs is sidelined. Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay teams have never ranked outside the top half of the league in touchdowns per game, making Lloyd a good pick in that high-scoring offense.

JJ Zachariason views Marshawn Lloyd as more undervalued than Jaden Blue despite injury concerns. Lloyd is a really good one-B in the backfield with potential to become the one-A if Josh Jacobs is sidelined. Matt LaFleur's teams have never ranked outside the top half of the league in touchdowns per game since he arrived in Green Bay, making Lloyd a good pick at his current cost.

Matthew Golden's scary comp is Sky Moore in 2023; both had nearly identical positional ADP (50 vs. 49). Golden has a market score of one (among top-10-round players), while Sky Moore's was zero. Sky Moore scored less than four PPR points per game that year. JJ Zachariason notes this is a floor comp, not a median outcome, but the similarities are striking.

JJ Zachariason may still call out Michael Wilson in the avoid section of the guide for season-long leagues, despite being more okay with Cardinals wide receiver picks overall. While Wilson was excellent last year, there's a real chance the gap between him and Marvin Harrison Jr. is smaller in season-long than in best ball, making him less attractive for redraft formats. The gap between Harrison and Wilson has widened to proper levels—now a two-round difference—which reflects the proper valuation difference between the two receivers.

Mike Evans' scary comp is Alan Robinson as a Ram in 2022 (Robinson was a fourth-round pick in many leagues but scored 8.5 PPR points per game that year). JJ Zachariason says he doesn't genuinely think that's the outcome for Evans and likes him more than DJ Moore. While he hasn't been heavily targeting Evans, he prefers him to DJ Moore given both are aged players who changed teams.

JJ Zachariason likes Parker Washington and notes he has good peripherals and is in a good system, but his scary comp is Hunter Renfro in 2022. Both had similar overall ADP (69 vs. 71), positional ADP (33 vs. 30), and market scores (37 vs. 43). Renfro had production early then disappeared in year four with six PPR points per game. Britain Covey's recent production suggests Washington could be next on the list.

JJ Zachariason is a little worried about Mahomes from an ADP standpoint, not from a health standpoint. While Mahomes averaged over 20 points per game last season with good rushing production, he was a pretty mediocre fantasy quarterback for multiple seasons before that. Zachariason is a couple of spots below ADP with Mahomes due to name recognition inflating his draft cost.

JJ Zachariason still thinks Trey McBride will be overdrafted in most drafts. Concerns stem from the Cardinals likely running fewer pass plays than last year under new coach and system, which is problematic for McBride since he wasn't phenomenal on a per-route-run basis—he ran hot in touchdowns and ran an obscene amount of routes. The reduction in pass plays could significantly impact his fantasy output.