1106: Mailbag - Ladd McConkey's Outlook, Philadelphia's Offense, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
20 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 26, 2026
Published
Fri, June 26, 2026
14
Player insights
14
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownBaker MayfieldChris GodwinDeVonta SmithGabriel DavisJalen HurtsJonah ColemanJustin FieldsKeenan AllenLadd McConkeyMakai LemonMalik WillisQuentin JohnstonSaquon Barkley
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveRole14:00
Departed the Eagles after 2025 season; while he's still a really good player, the Eagles were actually better by most metrics in the season without him, suggesting the offense may not suffer as much as expected from his absence.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveRole12:00
Injuries to Baker Mayfield in 2025 contributed to Emeka Abuka's late-season regression; the quarterback's health issues made it difficult for Abuka to sustain his early-season deep-ball dominance.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveProjection18:00
Market score's top comp for Ladd McConkey is Chris Godwin in 2019, where he scored almost 20 PPR points per game; illustrates McConkey's ceiling potential but also speaks to volatility in the comp list.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveValue14:00
Analyst likes DeVonta Smith at his current ADP in the Eagles offense; with new offensive coordinator and improved scheme, Smith should benefit from better play-calling and route design.
Insight pageGabriel Davis
PositiveBust6:11
Ranked significantly higher in redraft (rounds 4-6) than Dynasty after his second-year playoff performance; analyst saw a scary floor that materialized, and the Dynasty community was treating him as a breakout candidate when the body of work didn't support it.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue13:00
Analyst believes Hurts is the most mispriced higher-end quarterback right now; despite poor 2025 season (points-per-game below 20 for first time, team EPA per play dead last, rushing EPA below zero), Eagles have made offensive coordinator change and added depth, creating optimism for turnaround. Hurts has been starting for five seasons and the team was better in the season without AJ Brown by most metrics.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveValue9:00
Used as an example of a late-round pick with low hit rate; if drafted heavily across multiple teams and doesn't work out, it's easily correctable via waiver wire in managed redraft leagues, so high exposure to late-round picks is less risky than early-round concentration.
Insight pageJustin Fields
NegativeProjection4:59
Used as a comparison point to Tyler Shuck; analyst was never ultra high on Fields in Dynasty because passing numbers were always questionable and there was risk of job loss, but in redraft he provided good fantasy floor-ceiling combo as long as he was starting.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeRole15:00
Keenan Allen's potential return to the Chargers is a concern for Ladd McConkey's outlook; it's not a guarantee he won't rejoin the team this season, which could impact McConkey's target share and role.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveProjection15:00
Analyst still bullish on McConkey despite concerning trends; 2025 was disappointing but not as bad as it appears—he was in same vicinity as Quentin Johnson and Keenan Allen in yards per route run, led team in end zone targets with 21% target share. First downs per route run was very low at 6.2%, historically predictive of underperformance, but analyst believes Chargers offense has legit chance to be very good and McConkey belongs in amazing tier of round 3-5 wide receivers. Market score ranks him WR 17 (right below T. Higgins) with top comp Chris Godwin 2019 (20 PPR points per game). Analyst has cooled slightly on McConkey as ADP has risen but still wants exposure.
Insight pageMakai Lemon
PositiveBreakout14:00
Analyst is at least optimistic that Makai Lemon can fit in and be productive with the Eagles; added as depth piece to replace AJ Brown, and should benefit from new offensive coordinator's improved scheme.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveProjection5:30
Dynasty value is significantly more volatile than redraft value due to uncertainty around his performance as a starter; in single-QB leagues he's a late-round pick, in Superflex he's manageable, but in Dynasty Superflex his cost is high (comparable to Christian Watson on KeepTradeCut).
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveValue17:00
Analyst has talked himself into Quentin Johnson more than Ladd McConkey; Johnson was in same vicinity as McConkey and Keenan Allen in yards per route run last year, and analyst prefers him at current ADP in the Chargers offense.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveValue14:00
Analyst likes Saquon Barkley in the 1-2 turn area of the draft for the Eagles; with improved offensive scheme and coordinator change, he should see better rushing efficiency and opportunity.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:07Want to drive? CarMax. This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysen.
1:12What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zacharysen. In this episode 1106 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
1:17Thanks for tuning in. Before getting to the mailbag questions this week, I wanted to remind you to check out the Late Round Draft Guide.
1:26It's filled with game theory talk, ways to spot breakouts and busts, draft strategy for 2026, players to target, players to avoid, and so much more.
1:34It'll be out on July 10th, but you can pre-order now at a discount.
1:39Just check it all out over on LateRound.com. The first question this week is from Chris via the LateRoundMembersHub.
1:45It says, Hey, JJ, the new site looks awesome.
1:48Thanks. My question is, why is Tyler Shuck ranked significantly higher in Redraft Superflex ranks than Dynasty?
1:54I know he's older than your typical second-year player, but that still feels counterintuitive to me.
1:59Thank you. So first off, I'll say what I've said before on this show about Superflex season-long rankings, and note that I really don't like them.
2:07At all. I don't think people should blindly draft off of Superflex rankings, because every redraft Superflex league is going to have
2:15a totally different economy in how they value quarterbacks.
2:18With Dynasty, at least there's a market component that you're playing into.
2:21We can look at sites like KeepTradeCut to see what the general market is for a quarterback.
2:27With season-long Superflex leagues, that really doesn't matter. More than anything else, in those drafts, in those season-long Superflex drafts, you need
2:34to be reactive to what's going on in that quarterback position.
2:38So if you're looking at my Superflex season-long rankings and comparing them one-to-one with Dynasty ones, I don't think that's a smart idea.
2:45Just for those reasons alone. But people consistently ask me for season-long Superflex rankings.
2:50That's why I provide them. And I do my best to properly value quarterbacks, even though I don't think there's one single way to value them.
2:59But look, I have Tyler Shook as QB 15 right now in season-long.
3:03I have him around QB 19 in Dynasty. Now, I could argue him a little bit higher in Dynasty, but that's technically
3:10where my rankings have him right now. This has come up countless times in the show in the past with a number of different young players.
3:19But I don't automatically have a young player ranked higher in Dynasty versus Redraft.
3:23Because the cost to acquire that player is completely different in those two formats.
3:28Like, right now with Tyler Shook, I think we'd all agree that he's not locked in as a starter for the next 4, 5, 6, 7 years.
3:37We're not quite there yet. I'm optimistic. I actually think he was better than Cam Ward last year as a rookie.
3:44But we're still talking about an older prospect who went outside the first round.
3:48He's got the system around him. He could put up some really great fantasy numbers.
3:53But it's no guarantee that he's the starter beyond this season.
3:57In Redraft, that doesn't really matter. I don't care about what happens in 2027 with Tyler Shook.
4:02So I don't have to play the downside game or worry about the downside at all.
4:08The downside for Tyler Shook literally doesn't matter when we're specifically looking at 17 games in 2026.
4:13Technically 16 in the fantasy season. And I'm talking about career-long downside.
4:17So that changes where I'm going to rank a player.
4:20Because I'm trying to recognize the range of outcomes here.
4:24I recognize that Shook could be really good. But it can also go south.
4:28And that balances out into his Dynasty ranking. But I don't care nearly as much if it goes south in season-long.
4:35Because there are more ways to make up for that mistake.
4:39Even in a Superflex format. Season-long leagues are shallower.
4:42There's more on the waiver wire. And again, we're not worried long-term here.
4:46Shook is probably going to be a decent fantasy asset.
4:49Even if he doesn't really hit as a real-life passer.
4:53Because he has volume. There's a good environment there.
4:55And there's rushing potential. It's like when Justin Fields was starting.
4:59I'm not saying that Tyler Shook is Justin Fields.
5:02But hear me out. I was never ultra high on Fields and Dynasty.
5:06Because the passing numbers were always questionable. Which means there was always a risk that he could lose his job.
5:13In redraft though, as long as he was starting.
5:16He was generally giving you good fantasy numbers. He was giving you a good floor-ceiling combo.
5:21I didn't really care about what would happen with Justin Fields beyond that given year.
5:26Malik Willis is in a very similar boat right now too.
5:30We genuinely have no idea how well Malik Willis is going to perform as a starter.
5:35But there's zero doubt in my mind that his Dynasty value is a lot more volatile right now than his redraft value.
5:42His redraft value in single quarterback leagues is just a late-round pick.
5:46Even in Superflex leagues, it's not that bad from a season-long perspective.
5:50If it doesn't work out, you can just dump him in a single quarterback league.
5:55In a Superflex league, if you're really worried about the floor, you can platoon him.
6:00Get a third quarterback. Get like an Aaron Rodgers type.
6:03In Dynasty Superflex, if you look at keep trade cut, you have to give up a player like Christian Watson to get Malik Willis.
6:11That's not insignificant. And it's a long-term deal. I remember the same conversation on this show about Gabe Davis back in the day.
6:19I had Gabe Davis ranked way higher in redraft than I did in Dynasty after he came off that crazy playoff performance.
6:26After his second year. In redraft, he was going in like rounds 4 through 6 that year.
6:31I wasn't high or low on him. But I saw a scenario where the ceiling was actually there.
6:37But like a 4th to 6th round pick in redraft is not the most significant investment in the world.
6:43You can easily win a league championship if your 5th round pick doesn't work out.
6:48The waiver wire in a redraft league is a lot more fruitful.
6:52But the Dynasty community was treating Gabe Davis like a breakout was going to happen.
6:57I couldn't get there. Because there was a very scary floor, which is what we ended up seeing.
7:03Basically, all this comes down to this time frame that we're analyzing in these different formats.
7:08I'll be far more aggressive in redraft because it's an easier format to fix your mistakes in.
7:14And there are fewer consequences for being overly aggressive.
7:17Especially if you're talking about late round picks. In Dynasty, being reckless with your evaluations can lead you down a scary path for years to come.
7:25So you have to weigh the downside risk more.
7:28Of course there's upside too. And I'm trying to weigh that as well.
7:33But the downside to upside calculation is just different in Dynasty than it is in season long.
7:38And that's why Tyler Shuck is ranked slightly lower in Dynasty than he is in redraft for me right now.
7:45This next question is from Bilido Ryan on Blue Sky.
7:48It says, Well, I'd first make sure I wasn't crediting my success in fantasy football to simple exposure rates.
7:54I'm sure if you had 90% Jackson Smith and Jigba last year, you would have done very, very well.
8:01Even if you were at 90%. Because he hit in a big way.
8:05But there's no right or wrong answer to this.
8:08Because it comes down to how you generally want to manage your teams and how much risk you want to take on.
8:15If you're risk averse, then you'll want lower exposure.
8:18If you don't care, then have at it. The one thing I'll say, though, is that you'll want to mostly diversify your early round selections.
8:26Especially rounds 1-3, where we see by far the highest hit rates.
8:30Messing those up can really hurt your fantasy team.
8:33And if you get the same player over and over again from that range, and then he doesn't work out, or if he gets hurt, you're screwed.
8:42So I generally won't have a player in that area of the draft over like 25% or so.
8:48If I were to give you a rough estimate.
8:51But beyond that, looking at the later round picks, you should feel more comfortable having certain guys on a lot of teams.
8:58The hit rates for late round picks is really, really small.
9:02And in managed redraft leagues, which is what you're referring to here, you can make up for those mistakes.
9:08Like I was just saying with Tyler Shuck. We're not talking best ball.
9:12So if you draft like Jonah Coleman everywhere, and it's clear that he's just not him, you just drop him, and it
9:19really doesn't matter for your bottom line. Even if you have like 80% Coleman.
9:24Hit rates that late are tiny to begin with.
9:27I worry about this much more when we're talking about early round picks.
9:31But in the end, it's just personal preference. I think 10 leagues is enough where you do want to be cognizant of overall exposure, though.
9:39This next question is from Ethan via the Members Hub.
9:43It says, Hey JJ, thanks for all the hard work.
9:46I'm curious to get your thoughts on Emeka Abuka.
9:49Do you think his early season production was a fluke, or was his late season drop-off mostly due to injuries, both his and Baker's and other factors?
9:58With Mike Evans gone and Chris Godwin aging, the window is wide open for him to step up as the undisputed wide
10:05receiver won and get all the targets he needs to be the guy.
10:09Do you buy him taking the leap this season, or are there more layers to his progression than I'm probably missing?
10:16So I wrote about Abuka in the Late Round Prospect Guide because in that guide, there are year two profiles.
10:23You can still get that guide over on lateround.com.
10:26But the first thing I did with Abuka this offseason was see if we've ever seen this kind of split in the
10:33past, where a rookie started off so hot and then just fell off.
10:37And the answer was not really. We know season-long numbers are going to give us the most signal anyway, because there's a larger sample size.
10:45And he had good full season numbers. A 1.75 yards per route run rate, a target share of almost 24%.
10:52He had the second most first downs in last year's class.
10:56Like regardless of how it came together, it still came together for Emeka Abuka.
11:00To answer your question super directly, it's a little bit of both.
11:04Abuka was playing out of his mind week 1 through 5 last year.
11:08Through those games, he was by far first in the NFL in yards on deep ball targets.
11:14And for what it's worth, 76% of his targets were deemed catchable at that point in time.
11:20He was probably going to regress in some way.
11:23It's just that he regressed to a 50% catchable targets rate, which is super low.
11:27And get this, from weeks 1 through 5, Abuka had 8 receptions on 20-plus air yard throws.
11:33From week 6 through the end of the year, he had 11.
11:37Just 3 more deep ball receptions and 7 more games.
11:40And he finished with almost 150 fewer yards on those plays.
11:44He just wasn't getting it done via those big plays.
11:47We'll never know the exact reason for this. I think injuries to both guys, Abuka and Baker, that made it difficult for
11:54Abuka to sustain what he was doing. Or at least regressed to a reasonable mean.
11:59But through it all, I look at his year 2 model score, I look at his market score, I look at his
12:06season-long numbers, and I look at him as a player.
12:10How he played in year 1, and how he looked as a prospect.
12:14I think the body of work is there for him to have a great second season.
12:19I just wish that he was a little bit cheaper, so I could get a ton of exposure.
12:25He's going in a range of the draft, where I can make a great argument for a lot of wide receivers.
12:32If you listen to Becoming a Best Ball Bro, then you've heard me talk about that.
12:37I love that range of wide receivers. But that love does include Emeka Abuka.
12:42This S one's from Shane from the Members Hub.
12:45It says, What am I missing or not understanding about the outlook on the Eagles offense for this year?
12:51AJ Brown is gone, but the new OC and some potential depth added to the roster.
12:56Can it really get worse than last year, or is this more of the market digesting uncertainty?
13:02Look, I'm with you, Shane. I don't think you're missing anything.
13:06And I think Jalen Hurts is probably the most mispriced higher-end quarterback right now.
13:10And as you heard earlier this week, market score thinks the exact same way.
13:15Jalen Hurts has been starting for the Eagles for five seasons now.
13:19So since 2021. When looking at those five seasons, not only was Hurts' points-per-game average below 20 for the first time last
13:26year, but the team's EPA per play was dead last, their rushing EPA per play was below zero for the first time,
13:33their success rate on the ground was dead last, their yards per play was dead last.
13:38I mean, the Eagles had gone through plenty of changes offensively during Hurts' time as starter.
13:44Including a season without AJ Brown. And they were better in that season by most metrics.
13:49AJ Brown is still a really good player, so it's hard to just simply replace that.
13:54But I do like the guys they added in Stowers and Makai Lemon.
13:58And I don't think that we can downplay the change in offensive coordinator and what that might do.
14:04Kevin Petullo was so bad last year. The routes he had the wide receivers running were beyond basic.
14:10There wasn't as much motion. There wasn't that much RPO work.
14:14It was a really bad and boring offense. So I'm optimistic that things are going to turn around for them.
14:20I like Devontae Smith where he goes. I love Jalen Hurts where he goes.
14:25And I like Saquon in that 1-2 turn area.
14:28And I'm at least optimistic that Makai Lemon can fit in and be productive too.
14:33So this is definitely an offense that I want to buy into.
14:37The last question is from Casey from the Members Hub.
14:40It says, Hey JJ, the fantasy community seems to be pretty split on Lad McConkie.
14:45While some are in love, many have very real reasons for doubting him and his ADP.
14:50Last season was a disappointment. He might not be on the field in the Chargers' two tight end sets.
14:57And it's not a guarantee that Keenan Allen won't rejoin the team this season.
15:01You also mentioned in the last episode that there were some concerning trends in his data that you were working on for the draft guide.
15:09My question is, why are you still in on Lad?
15:13Huge fan of your work and new member. Keep doing what you're doing.
15:17Thanks, Casey. Thanks, Casey. So I don't think the Chargers are going to sit Lad McConkie in two tight end sets, or at least very often.
15:25He's too talented of a player for that. Yes, his 20-25, definitely a disappointment.
15:30But it's not like other wide receivers on that team dominated per route run while Lad was just really bad.
15:37He was in the same vicinity as Quentin Johnson and Keenan Allen last year in yards per route run.
15:43He led the team in end zone targets. He had a 21% target share.
15:47It wasn't all doom and gloom. The note that you're talking about related to trends is that yes, when looking at previous
15:55season per route run data, it is predictive. Yards per route run, targets per route run, first downs per route run.
16:02And his first downs per route run mark last year was really, really bad.
16:06It was just 6.2%. And historically, since 2014, which is where my ADP data dates back to, but historically, we've had 27
16:13wide receivers rank past wide receiver 12 and before wide receiver 37 who qualify here.
16:18So wide receiver twos and wide receiver threes. 27 of them with 200 or more routes run in the previous season with
16:26a first downs per route run rate below 7%.
16:28Of those 27 players, they underperformed versus ADP expectation on average by over two PPR points per game.
16:34That's very bad. Only one of them exceeded that expectation by two or more PPR points per game.
16:40So only one of them outperformed where they were being drafted by two or more PPR points per game.
16:47And that's just expected points per game based on where they were drafted.
16:51I know I'm saying the same thing over and over again, but I want you guys to really wrap your head around this.
16:58And actually, I just talked about him, but Emeka Abuka is actually part of that list too.
17:04He had a low first downs per route run rate last year.
17:08But I'm just bullish on the Chargers offense. I think there's a legit chance that it's very good.
17:14I think I've cooled off slightly on Ladd because his ADP has been rising in the things that I discovered in the guide this year.
17:22And I talked myself into Quentin Johnson a little bit more.
17:26But I think Ladd belongs in that amazing tier of wide receivers in that like round three to round five range where
17:33there are so many upside players to choose from.
17:36Because we can't forget, back after year one, Ladd McConkie was super, super legit.
17:40I don't think we should only look at his previous season numbers, even if a lot of them are predictive.
17:47And look, this is where market score can really help us.
17:51And his market score is not as bad as you'd think.
17:54He's ranked right below T. Higgins as wide receiver 17, despite all those poor previous season numbers.
18:00Market score thinks his overall ADP is on point.
18:03That he's being drafted at the end of round three into round four, and that's where he should be drafted, according to that metric.
18:11His top comp for market score is Chris Godwin in 2019, where he scored almost 20 PPR points per game.
18:17But there are definitely some questionable players on that comp list too, which speaks to the volatility that I'm talking about here.
18:24So yes, there's definitely some concern. And yes, I do think I've called slightly about Ladd McConkie compared to like a month
18:32ago, where he was a little bit cheaper. But I want pieces of this offense, and despite his down season, I still
18:39think Ladd McConkie has a lot of talent. His rookie season doesn't just happen by mistake.
18:44That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
18:48If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found.
18:57And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
19:01Thanks for listening this week, everyone. Greatly appreciate it.
19:04Enjoy your weekend, and I'll catch you next week.
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