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0:50This is the Late-Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyarysen.
0:53JJ Zacharyarysen. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyarysen in this episode 1107 of the Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:59Thanks for tuning in. I hired Brandon Gadula to be part of the Late-Round Fantasy Football team back in January.
1:06Since then, he's helped with a prospect guide specifically with tight ends.
1:09He's helped me in building out everything you're now seeing with market score.
1:14And nearly every week, he's sending out a newsletter to all Late-Round subscribers.
1:18That newsletter, by the way, totally free. And if you're not subscribed, you're missing out.
1:23Because Gadula's deep dives are really awesome and they're definitely worth your time.
1:27One of his more recent newsletters had to do with catchable targets.
1:31I think a lot of times there are metrics out there that we assume regress in the exact same way.
1:37That a high rate one year means a lower rate the next year.
1:41Or a lower rate means a higher one the next year.
1:45And while regression is almost always inevitable, it doesn't always work out that cleanly.
1:49So I sat down with Brandon for a quick chat about catchable targets.
1:54Both from a receiver and quarterback perspective. Because I wanted to see what we could take away from his research for drafts this year.
2:01Now before getting into my conversation with him, I wanted to remind you to check out the Late-Round Draft Guide.
2:08It's filled with game theory talk, ways to spot breakouts and busts, draft strategy for this season, players to target, players to avoid, and so much more.
2:16It'll be out on July 10th and you can pre-order right now at a discount.
2:21Check it all out over on LATEROUND.com Now here's my discussion with Brandon Gadula.
2:26So Brandon, you sent a newsletter blast out not long ago on catchable targets data.
2:31Can you describe what you were aiming to do with that?
2:34Yeah, the goal, pretty simple. Just looking into catchable target data to see, specifically for wide receivers at the time, in order
2:41to see if it was sticky year over year, or if it could tell us about regression of any kind, identify regression,
2:48not just for catchable target rate, but its impact on other related statistics.
2:52But, you know, regression, as we've talked about, just a big part of my process in the world of so much subjectivity
2:59and guessing about roles and how coaches will use certain players.
3:03It's really one of the few things that we can just test and say, like, look, I'm not even accounting for quarterback changes or role changes.
3:11But if we see changes year over year that we can kind of somewhat predict when it comes to catchable target rate,
3:18that's really good information for me to use in my process.
3:22So, you know, the thing with catchable targets is, first of all, you can you'll find very different numbers based on your
3:29source to just keep that in mind. I used fantasy pros.
3:33It was just really widely available, easy to see, and other people could use it if they want to.
3:39But it could be a function of wide receivers, could be a function of quarterbacks.
3:44So I ended up looking a little bit into quarterbacks after the fact as well.
3:48But, you know, one of the things with receivers that I think is important, and it became as I got like really
3:55down, like deep in the weeds with catchable target rate, it just kind of hit me that, you know, yeah, we look
4:03at volume for a lot of these guys. But outside of the top tier receivers who get a ton of volume, what
4:10we're really kind of looking at is efficiency numbers for these sort of outside tier two, honestly.
4:15Like once you get into tier three, four or five, like these types of wide receiver 30 and beyond type names, you're
4:22really looking for like efficiency, whether that's per target, per route numbers.
4:26And so, you know, if you look at two receivers, let's say both average 10 yards of target, 100 total targets, but
4:33player A, let's say gets 100 catchable targets. Player B gets 75.
4:37That should matter. That should sort of say that player B did more with his catchable targets.
4:42But, you know, if catchable target rate at the same time stays the same because of player archetype or quarterback infrastructure or
4:49whatever, you know, then we also know that player A's catchable targets going to be higher than player B's catchable targets.
4:56So, you know, of course, it's not quite as simple as that, but just to answer your question directly, very clear aim,
5:03just to see what we can learn from a prior season catchable target rate as we project forward to the next year.
5:10I think a lot of fantasy managers and especially, I mean, even myself to a degree, assume regression with catchable targets.
5:17You know, I do want to caveat that regression in and of itself can't just be blanketed and use the same way from one statistic to the next.
5:26But I think intuitively catchable targets seem like something that would regress.
5:30You know, one year you have a really low catchable targets rate, and that's because, you know, you had a backup quarterback
5:37or the quarterback had an injury or whatever the case may be.
5:41And then the next year just gets a little bit better because that's just what happens with football and larger sample sizes.
5:48But is that what you found at a high level with these guys?
5:52Yeah, at a high level, for sure. And again, I'm not, you know, sometimes when I'm doing regression, I will look at
5:59like, did this guy have the same quarterback or, you know, did the quarterback was the week one starter different?
6:06I don't even do that because sometimes I think if there's signal, there's signal.
6:10And sometimes you can get really bogged down in the details.
6:14And sometimes you don't have to if the numbers are strong enough.
6:18But yeah, it does seem like catchable targets, according to my research, which did it back to 2017.
6:23It really just looked at year over year data for receivers who had at least 50 targets in consecutive seasons.
6:30So yeah, like the numbers do look like they regress toward the league average, but it's not, you know, super straightforward.
6:37The high level summary effectively is when you bucket players into quartiles.
6:40So basically four equal buckets, the players with really low catchable target rates in a given season.
6:46They tend to see a noticeable uptick in catchable targets the next season, which is what we would expect.
6:52They don't stay terrible forever. The top quartile by catchable target rate, the guys getting a very high rate of catchable balls.
6:59They also regress, but not necessarily to the league average, which I think both of those things make sense.
7:05League average, by the way, again, just really depends on the source that you're looking at.
7:10Again, I used fantasy pros, but I looked at other sources too.
7:14And the general trends for catchable target rates, like directionally, they're very strong.
7:18You know, some guy might stand out a little bit differently, but for the most part, so long as you're just looking
7:25at the same source, I think you're going to be fine.
7:29But yeah, like when you see really low catchable target numbers, that probably some of that has to do with your quarterback
7:36play, but also your archetype, also a level of how much you contribute to that in terms of getting open.
7:43But what I thought, what I found just as interesting was, yeah, it's nice to say players who really didn't see a
7:50lot of catchable targets or specifically saw a high rate of uncatchable passes.
7:54Like, yeah, they kind of come back toward the league average, but the players who get a lot of catchable targets, that
8:01high rate of catchable targets, they do step back a little bit, but they tend to kind of as a bucket.
8:08Be above the league, which not all these guys are like super low-a-dot guys, which I think is interesting.
8:14There's kind of good players who kind of are able to see a lot of catchable balls and make the most of it.
8:21Could be catch radius stuff. And again, that's one of those things with regards to your specific source for catchable targets.
8:28Like if a receiver makes an athletic play toward the ball, that might be a penalty toward him if it's catchable and he can't quite get there.
8:37That just might be different on how some sources chart it.
8:40It could be totally due to the quarterback, could be how much the receiver is doing.
8:45But yeah, I think again, at a high level, we do see these numbers regress.
8:50And what was interesting too, and one thing I didn't get into in the newsletter, and I would love to do more
8:57of, is I looked at yards per target and yards per catchable target year over year.
9:02And yards per catchable target had a much higher R squared year over year from these receivers who had consecutive qualified seasons.
9:09It's about 0.06 just yards per target. But yards per catchable target was 0.14, almost 0.15, which I thought was interesting.
9:16And it really led me to believe, like, I want to look more into this because in fantasy football, we're definitely not
9:23maxed out with the stats we're looking at. There's a lot we can do with analytics.
9:28But as we get more data, I'd love to just kind of change the divisor.
9:33I can never pronounce that. But just change the, you know, we have routes.
9:38Initially, we had yards per catch. Then we had yards per target, yards per route.
9:42Let's look at yards per catchable target. I want to do more with that based on what I found because I do
9:50think that there's a lot to this. Yeah, essentially the denominator of a fraction, right?
9:54Like essentially the whatever we're whatever we're dividing by in those cases.
9:58I do think that what you mentioned on there or in that answer is important.
10:03And that was the a dot stuff because a dot obviously gives us a sense of the type of role that a player is playing.
10:11Right. Like if it's a super high a dot, then he's a he's usually more of a field stretcher.
10:17If it's a lower a dot, then he's not.
10:20And there is a relationship between lower a dot and higher catchable targets.
10:24Correct. And then and then higher a dot and lower catchable targets.
10:28And so that probably plays some role. I would imagine in the stickiness year over year because a player plays a similar
10:35role, you know, a field stretching wide receiver who's been in the league for four years.
10:40And that's the role that he plays. Probably isn't going to change that up all of a sudden, you know, the following season.
10:48It's not like everyone, you know, I mean, you can look at like Alec Pierce right now, but like we don't know exactly what even that is.
10:56That's going to look like, you know, after after what he's done throughout his career.
11:01So I do think that that's part of probably part of the reason that we see like the guys who are in
11:08the higher end bucket, you know, the higher quartile where, like you said, they're not necessarily falling because they might just have
11:15these like perfect fantasy friendly roles that allow for higher catchable targets.
11:19Just because they're in like the perfect a dot range.
11:23Right. And maybe the quarterback itself is just good at throwing in that that a dot range.
11:28And so if the if the situation, if the deployment is all sticky year over year, then all of a sudden, you
11:35know, you have a very similar catchable targets rate year over year and it's able to be more reliable and not regress to some mean.
11:43Yeah. And I think that's interesting, too, because we're we're usually or historically, you know, at least I I'll put a frame it this way.
11:51I've looked for like upside guys, right, like higher a dot receivers kind of looking a little bit down on some of
11:58the the high volume receivers who don't get, you know, the downfield work to the degree.
12:03I was really surprised and I dug into this for the draft guide looking at market score.
12:09But like market score is pretty it's still pretty high on Jamar Chase, but I dug into Jamar Chase and like his
12:16a dots been going down year over year. Like he had it.
12:20I think I think every single season he definitely had his lowest a dot in 2025 of his career running a lot
12:27more, but running a lot more out routes, hitch routes and stuff.
12:31So I think that's interesting. But that's also like rather than look at that as a negative, he's getting catchable passes.
12:37Right. Right. That's super relevant. So I want to like I want to continue to explore this because I do think there's a lot of signal here.
12:46Yeah. Yeah, for sure. And then let's look at quarterbacks.
12:49Like, did they regress with their on target rates to like is that, you know, similar mechanism as to what you saw with wide receivers?
12:57Yeah. So I basically do the same thing for quarterbacks and the year over year are squared for poor throw rate since
13:042017 among quarterbacks with 100 plus attempts in consecutive seasons.
13:08It's about 0.16. It's not bad for receivers overall.
13:11It's like 0.14. But again, it comes down to the details, right?
13:14The guys who are really high or really low in these poor throw rates.
13:19So it's basically the same story. I could just kind of leave it at that.
13:24But I think it also makes sense. Higher a dot quarterbacks versus lower a dot quarterbacks.
13:29Or frankly, you know, it's really, really difficult to isolate out.
13:32Like we know which receivers in theory. In theory, we know who's good.
13:37But with quarterback samples grow. They touch the ball in basically every single play.
13:41They're in control. We can even isolate out more like, OK, was he under pressure?
13:46Like, let's look at things from a clean pocket.
13:49Can he have catchable balls from a clean pocket?
13:52These types of things. So it's a lot easier.
13:55And we would expect quarterback rate to be a little bit stickier.
13:59And it is. But yeah, the quarterbacks who throw, you know, not a lot of poor passes.
14:04They do kind of trend toward the league average.
14:07It's about 0.1 or sorry, 1.7 percentage points higher the next year in terms of poor throw rate.
14:13League average roughly, again, according to fantasy pros, about 16% just to simplify it.
14:17And so if you're if you're at like a 12%, you might be closer to 13 and a half, 14%.
14:24But you're still generally, again, as a bucket going to play better by that metric.
14:28And then the inverse, of course, the guys who just threw a lot of bad passes get a bit better at minus 2.1 percentage points year over year.
14:37But I will say both of these studies require you to have like a qualified season the next year.
14:44So if you're throwing a lot of bad passes as a quarterback, you might not get 100 attempts the next year.
14:50Same as receiver. If you're not getting yourself open or or if maybe OK, maybe you're still on the low end of
14:57catchable target rate, but you can't even like get close to it.
15:01There's no catch radius like you're not going to qualify for the next season.
15:06So just keep that in mind. But again, to sum it up, quarterback pretty similar.
15:11The tail end is going to regress a little bit back toward the league average.
15:15But we still tend to see the guys who have that higher poor pass rate still going to be a little bit
15:22higher than league average as in general from a bucket standpoint.
15:26Let's look at 2026 and let's let's just look at favorable and unfavorable regression candidates in 2026 and see if there are
15:33any players based on the catchable targets data that you think should regress favorable.
15:38We'll start the favorably side. So are there players out there that you think might end up being undervalued because of this
15:45and because of maybe the market not factoring in that regression or just just players that will see favorable regression within the statistic?
15:52Yeah. So one thing that's interesting, just league wide is like a dot trending down.
15:57So poor throw rate is kind of down a bit, which is nice.
16:01Kind of more catchable passes being thrown just as a duck gets depressed.
16:05But there are still some favorable regression candidates entering 2026.
16:08Some of these guys a little bit more relevant for best ball.
16:12Someone like 80 Mitchell has actually been a positive regression candidate for two straight years.
16:17He's like he's got one of the few seasons.
16:20And again, this is fantasy pros, which I think these numbers are kind of low.
16:25But it just also hammers home the difference in how site like sites will source things.
16:30But he had under a 50% catchable target rate last year.
16:34And that scene again seems kind of crazy, but it's just consistent.
16:37And again, directionally, they're all the same across different sources.
16:41But 80 Mitchell for the Jets and then, you know, possibly has improved quarterback play.
16:45I think that's interesting. Darnell Mooney as well for the Giants could have a bit of a role depending on the health of Malik neighbors.
16:53So I think that's interesting. But some bigger, well, I guess I'll throw in one more flyer just as I'm going down the list.
17:01But Alec Iomaner also hits. But for some more directly fantasy relevant guys toward the top end, Roma Dunze and Mike Evans
17:08saw a really low catchable target rate. Evans, of course, didn't play a full season.
17:13But I'll start with a Dunze. His ADOT. So again, a lot of this is kind of tied to ADOT.
17:20But ADOT can change based on your role as well.
17:23A Dunze, his ADOT was 13.9 yards downfield in 2025.
17:26And what's interesting is we're kind of comparing a Dunze.
17:29We know he's got like a foot issue, a whole sort of new normal for him.
17:34So maybe his ADOT does change. And what's interesting is he has a very direct comparison of somebody who saw a really
17:41high catchable target rate in Luther Burt. But Burden's ADOT was only 7.7 yards, according to True Media.
17:47Again, just a super high catchable target rate that led to phenomenal yards per route run.
17:52I'm not saying that was the only case for it, but a really historic rookie season.
17:57And if Burden starts pushing downfield more, he has a quarterback who historically, and Caleb Williams, not the greatest catchable target rates from him.
18:05So I think that that's interesting here where a Dunze could see some more catchable balls.
18:10Burden might see a little bit of a higher uncatchable target rate.
18:14So just something to keep in mind. Mike Evans, though, I think is really interesting.
18:19He's a little bit of a peculiar one for market score.
18:23A lot of that has to do with age and team competition for him.
18:27But he only played half a season last year.
18:30Super outlier. It was interesting to see Evans because for the archetype he is, like a downfield contested catch guy, his catch
18:37rate's been pretty solid, all things considered. And now he heads to a new offense.
18:42He's got Brock Purdy, who consistently has been better than average in terms of poor throw rate.
18:47So should get a lot of on-target passes to Mike Evans.
18:51So I think that's interesting. Some other names, though, surprisingly, Devontae Adams.
18:55Probably because 90% of his targets are just contested in the end zone.
18:59Alec Pierce and Emeka Ibuka also make the list.
19:02I mean, there's a lot of big names in the newsletter, too.
19:06I could rattle off a few more. And Jerry Judy, who I know you've been kind of interested in in terms of best ball as a late flyer.
19:15I think I think that's kind of the thing that is interesting.
19:19Like the late the late flyers for best ball is really how I'm thinking about this early on.
19:24Xavier Worthy, Nico Collins, Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson.
19:27T Higgins, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson.
19:30And surprisingly, Drake London. But I guess he's also another one of those like contested catch guys.
19:36So, again, it was kind of a strange year.
19:38A lot of uncatchable targets, according to Fantasy Pros last year.
19:42So you do see a lot of names who could get, you know, a better a better go of it in 2026.
19:49What about on the other side for the the unfavorable candidates?
19:53Yeah. So, again, you have to keep in mind that historically speaking, we see this is a little bit stickier.
19:59But at the top of the list is the fond digs where, you know, where he winds up, you know, for 2026.
20:06It will depend on where he lands, but pretty low a dot or like lower than receiver average.
20:12It wasn't terrible or anything last year for him.
20:15Already talked about this, but Luther Burden just like a crazy efficiency season, which I think is interesting.
20:212.74 yards per route run, which is the highest yards per route run among a rookie receiver with 200 plus routes since 2020, according to True Media.
20:29But caught 47 of 60 passes. Just, you know, crazy season there.
20:33And then we get into two really interesting names who could, if you are taking this very literally and kind of missing
20:40the big picture, they could scare you. But Puka Nakua and Zay Flowers.
20:44Puka, just a good reminder that, like, I would have bet he has a lot to do with, like, getting after passes
20:51and making more balls catchable than he probably should.
20:54But Nakua, you know, if you look historically, he's had at least the 73% catchable target rate in each of his last three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
21:03So he's one of the types of players who just makes things happen.
21:08He does get a lot of targets near the line of scrimmage, but also a really high rate of downfield targets, which is interesting as well.
21:16So I don't want to take this as, like, a negative for Puka by any means.
21:21Kind of similar for Zay Flowers, who I keep liking more and more this year in basketball.
21:27I keep trying to get more exposure to him.
21:29He's increased his yards per route run in each of the last three seasons.
21:341.86, 2.47, and 2.55. Coming off of a career best catchable target rate.
21:38And, like, history says that'll scale back, but still not necessarily be terrible.
21:42Some other names on the list would be Khalil Shakir, which you'd expect would kind of stay high.
21:48Michael Pittman, Jackson Smith and Jigba. Jamison Williams, which was surprising, but also Amon Ross St.
21:53Brown, which kind of speaks to pretty good offense, good quarterback.
21:57And Rasheed Rice. So I'm less concerned about the guys with high catchable target rates and more interested in the guys with low catchable target rates.
22:05Yeah, it makes sense. And a lot of those guys, you know, like you saying Khalil Shakir, oh, that makes sense.
22:12It's obviously, you know, he's going to see, like, a four-yard A dot.
22:16You know, it's just the way they use him in an offense.
22:20So clearly, it's kind of hard to screw up a target in that kind of environment.
22:25So the last question I have for you, what do you think the main takeaway is here?
22:31Right? Like, everyone just heard a bunch of names, and hopefully you jotted some of those down, and at least made you
22:38think about players a little bit differently. But do you think that we should weigh this more into our evaluation?
22:44Do you think it's already being captured? Or do you think that some people might be overrating it?
22:50You know, like there's a situation with like a Mecca Buka right now, for instance, where it's really easy to look at
22:57what went down with him last year and say, oh, he had a really, and I've done this on the show many
23:04times, you know, like, oh, he had a poor catchable targets rate.
23:08That's going to regress. He'll be a lot better next year, no matter what.
23:12Is there any like major takeaway that you have from the study?
23:16Well, you mentioned, hopefully people jotted these names down and just clarify, all these names that I talked about were in the newsletter.
23:24So if it's still in your inbox, check that out.
23:27And if not, you should definitely sign up because we got some cool stuff each and every week at the Late Round Newsletter.
23:34But, you know, I think it's difficult to know because this is such a small sliver of the puzzle.
23:40And I sometimes don't know. Like, again, a lot of my process is built around regression.
23:45Sometimes I don't know what people are seeing in certain players to make them higher or lower.
23:51One thing that's really interesting, and this is not a catchable target situation, but like Matthew Stafford's touchdown rate is one of
23:58the most glaringly obvious regression spots this year. But for the first time, a quarterback who doesn't rush, who had like an
24:05almost 8% touchdown rate, he's not being drafted. It's like a top 10 guy.
24:10So it's like people are kind of learning. And I don't know if I see it totally in terms of catchable target
24:17data, just because I think something like scoring rate, like touchdown rate is a lot more talked about and a lot more present than catchable target rate.
24:25But like, I think that we're getting smarter as a collective.
24:29And so I do think that this is starting to be factored in more as it's really easy just to, you know,
24:36more people talk about things like catchable target rate.
24:39But again, when like if one source says like if you have three sources and to say this guy was kind of
24:46average and catchable target rate and one source says like this guy didn't see any catchable targets like that's where it gets
24:53hard to like factor this in because it is a very peculiar stat.
24:57So it is one like one thing I'll say for sure is I actually want to factor this in more because again,
25:04the spots I'm always looking for are the things that we can kind of verify.
25:09And whenever I can almost I won't say lazily because like I did the work and like check things out.
25:16But when you don't have to account for like, OK, but if he changes teams, it doesn't really fit.
25:22It's like, yeah, overall, like you see this being sticky enough that there's signal in it.
25:27And I think that we should all be factoring it in a little bit more.
25:32Again, that doesn't mean that we saw 80 Mitchell on the low end.
25:36I think 80 Mitchell is a little bit polarizing.
25:39Sorry, we saw him on the low end for two straight years.
25:43So it didn't necessarily bounce back. I think some people were like, this guy's not good enough.
25:48But you could just as easily say like he's due for like a league average catchable target rate.
25:54You know, for him in particular this year, it's it's it might matter.
25:58He's not going to be like an alpha. We know that.
26:02But when you apply that kind of logic to an Emeka Ibuka or you say, hey, Mike Evans, you know, kind of a weak efficiency season.
26:10But Baker wasn't fully himself. Evans wasn't fully himself in eight games.
26:14Like maybe that's how you sell yourself on Mike Evans having just a massive season.
26:19And I think you can do that while not really getting out over your skis or making things kind of just making
26:26things up and saying, it's going to get better because, you know, we've done the research and it's like historically speaking.
26:32Yeah, it is going to get better for these guys.
26:36Yeah, I love it, man. I love it. Let everyone know where they can find you and the good stuff you're working
26:43on, which is the same stuff that I'm working on for the most part right now.
26:48Yeah, I'm I'm occasionally on Twitter at Godula 13 GD ULA one three.
26:52I'm on blue sky at Godula. And then everything else I do late round dot com late round newsletter draft guide.
26:59Very excited for that this year. Yes, super excited again, July 10th.
27:03That's when it's coming out. We are at the finish line with it.
27:07We're we're working hard. You know, there's going to be some long hours these next two weeks, but it will be out.
27:14Make sure you check it all out late round dot com.
27:17And most importantly, guys, check out the late round newsletter because Brandon is putting so much work into that every single week.
27:25And there's studies like this catchable targets one that he's putting out there consistently.
27:29This just happened to be one that we turned into a podcast because this is just a particularly interesting topic.
27:35But there's a lot of other topics that he's dug into already.
27:39So check all that out. The newsletter is free, so you don't have to pay anything.
27:44But it's all at late round dot com. As always, everyone, thanks for tuning in.
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28:14Proud partner of the iHeart podcast network. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football.
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28:25Select bounty and Swiffer cleaning products and more. Then once your to do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax and enjoy the game.
28:33Shop in store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's official partner of the NFL.
28:39This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human. All right.
28:42So bien.
