Fantasy Football with Ian Hartitz artwork

6 BOLD Fantasy Football FADES

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

28 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 30, 2026
Published
Thu, July 30, 2026
21
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Alvin KamaraBreece HallBucky IrvingCarnell TateChristian WatsonD.J. MooreGarrett WilsonGeno SmithJaylen WaddleJeremiyah LoveKenneth Walker IIIKenyon SadiqKeon ColemanMike Evans
Player analysis

Player insights

21

Alvin Kamara

PositiveRole0:49

Ian Hartitz expects Alvin Kamara to play a significant role for the Saints in 2026 despite a down 2025 season and contract restructure. Kamara is actively receiving first-team reps alongside Travis Etienne in training camp, signaling the team's commitment to keeping him. His best career seasons came in a 50/50 split with Mark Ingram, and the contract restructure reinforces that role expectation. Kamara was RB5 in PPR in 2024 and is only one year removed from that production. He missed late-season opportunities against weak defenses (Jets, Panthers, Titans) while playing with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, suggesting his 2025 decline was partly circumstantial rather than a permanent decline. Hartitz views Kamara as a much better player historically and expects him to receive significant pass-down work in the Saints' offense.

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Breece Hall

PositiveBust19:55

Ian Hartitz fades Breece Hall despite consensus round 3 ADP (RB 15-17 across ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo) due to Jets offense concerns. Hartitz refuses to use a top-40 to top-45 pick on an offense ranked 32nd in offensive power by Vegas that could realistically be the single worst in the NFL and could start a really bad rookie QB down the stretch. While Hall is a good running back with playmakers around him (Garrett Wilson, Kenyan Sadik, Omar Cooper, AD Mitchell), the offense quality is the limiting factor. Hartitz: "I hate this offense and I don't want to use a top 40, a top 45 pick on an offense that very realistically could be starting a really bad rookie down the stretch of the season."

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Bucky Irving

NegativeBust4:37

Ian Hartitz fades Bucky Irving, who is being drafted as early as RB17 and as low as RB21 (top 50–55 pick range). Hartitz's core concern is Irving's role: he sees Irving as a between-the-20s running back in an offense that is not a juggernaut, lacking the two most valuable assets for fantasy running backs—goal-line work and consistent high-volume touches. Last year, Shawn Tucker dominated goal-line carries 9-0 versus Irving inside the five-yard line, and Kenneth Gable is also in the mix for short-yardage work. Irving is coming off a shoulder injury that persisted into the offseason. Hartitz argues the upside scenario requires Baker Mayfield playing at 2024 level, team success, and Irving reaching 15 touches per game while healthy—a steep bet for the first five rounds. Hartitz: "I am out on Bucky Irving in 2026."

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Carnell Tate

PositiveValue7:17

Ian Hartitz likes Carnell Tate as a mid-round wide receiver option, preferring Tate and similar receivers (Christian Watson, Roma Dunay) over running backs like Bucky Irving who lack clear workload paths. Tate is part of Hartitz's strategy to target best assets at the point in the draft rather than reach for uncertain running backs.

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Christian Watson

PositiveValue7:17

Ian Hartitz likes Christian Watson as a mid-round wide receiver option, preferring Watson and similar receivers (Carnell Tate, Roma Dunay) over running backs like Bucky Irving who lack clear workload paths. Watson is part of Hartitz's strategy to target best assets at the point in the draft rather than reach for uncertain running backs.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeBust16:28

Ian Hartitz fades DJ Moore as the Bills' WR1 (ADP WR25-27, end of round 5-6) despite the Joe Brady reunion. Core concerns: (1) Ben Johnson couldn't figure out DJ Moore in Chicago despite being one of the NFL's brightest offensive minds, suggesting systemic fit issues unresolved by the move; (2) Caleb Williams' completion percentage was fine, but the underlying issue was DJ Moore giving up on routes and lacking timing—problems that don't disappear in Buffalo's system; (3) DJ Moore has been useless in fantasy for two years with declining efficiency numbers; (4) Josh Allen's scrambling ability doesn't solve the route-running and timing issues; (5) Buffalo's receivers outside Kalo Shakur have been useless despite the "everyone eats" mantra; (6) Buffalo runs the ball very well and won't change their offensive identity for a year-nine receiver; (7) Hartitz explicitly rejects the Stefon Diggs comparison as insulting to prime Diggs. Hartitz prefers RBs like Roman Dunay, DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery, Jadarian Price, and Luther Burden at similar ADP.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveBust19:55

Ian Hartitz fades Garrett Wilson as a bold pick despite consensus round 3-4 ADP (WR 12-18) due to multiple concerns: (1) the traditional case for Wilson—that he'll accumulate 150+ targets due to lack of receiving competition—no longer holds with more target competition than ever; (2) the Jets offense is ranked 32nd by Vegas and could be the single worst in the NFL; (3) the team could start a really bad rookie QB down the stretch; (4) even when Wilson had high target volume in the past, he didn't deliver amazing returns; (5) per-game numbers last year were fine in limited sample but tape shows concerning patterns (e.g., eight-yard curls in Tampa Bay game with Tyrod Taylor); (6) Hartitz would prefer to see Wilson team up with a better QB like Arch Manning or Dante Moore in 2027 or beyond. Hartitz refuses to use a top-40 to top-45 pick on this offense and is "really having a bigger time struggling" with Wilson at current ADP given the poor offensive environment under Frank Reich.

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Geno Smith

NegativeProjection23:24

Jets QB discussed as unreliable and aging; led NFL in interceptions and sacks; at 36 years old, losing coaching staff and arm strength, seeing the field slower; 2022-2023 success was volatile high-wire act relying on big-time throw rate and double covers of Tyler Lockett with DK Metcalf making plays downfield; speaker expects significant falloff; ranked very low among starting QBs; Vegas does not expect Jets to be good; speaker does not expect Gino to be starting in December, predicting Cade Clubick will take over by fantasy playoffs.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveValue4:06

Ian Hartitz prefers Jaylen Waddle as a wide receiver alternative to Travis Etienne at a similar draft position, noting Waddle goes well after Etienne in ESPN and other home leagues. Waddle is part of Hartitz's preferred group of receivers (also including Lamarr McConkey and T. Higgins) that offer better value and upside than running backs in the early-to-mid rounds.

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Jeremiyah Love

NegativeBust22:20

Ian Hartitz fades Jeremiah Love at current ADP, explicitly stating "I don't really want to draft him either" due to being on one of the single worst offenses in the league. The fade applies the same reasoning as Breece Hall—Hartitz does not want to draft running backs in the top four rounds from such a poor offensive environment.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeRole10:43

Kenneth Walker has arrived with the Chiefs and the team wants to run the football; however, Hartitz suggests that defenses will crowd the line of scrimmage to defend both Walker's rushing and Rasheed Rice's short routes, potentially making life harder for both players. Kenneth Walker's addition to the Kansas City Chiefs inside the 10-yard line may reduce gadget touchdown opportunities for both Rasheed Rice and Xavier Worthy. Defenses may also crowd the line of scrimmage against Walker's running game, which could either open up the passing game or make life harder for Rice and Walker depending on execution.

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Kenyon Sadiq

NegativeRole21:01

Jets playmaker mentioned alongside Omar Cooper as late-round dart option; speaker acknowledges Jets have some weapons but does not want to draft running backs or pass catchers in the single worst offense in the NFL inside the top four rounds.

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Keon Coleman

NegativeRole25:15

Keon Coleman is mentioned as part of the Bills' extensive wide receiver carousel of acquisitions since 2024, including trades for DJ Moore and Amari Cooper, draft picks (Coleman, Kaden Prather, Skyler Bell), and numerous free agent signings. Ian Hartitz uses this history to illustrate the Bills' dysfunctional WR situation and his skepticism about any individual WR succeeding in Buffalo.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue7:00

Ian Hartitz prefers Mike Evans as a wide receiver option in the draft range where Bucky Irving is being targeted, citing Evans as more alluring than investing in running backs with uncertain roles. Evans is part of Hartitz's preferred group of receivers (also including Terry McLaurin and Devonte Adams) that offer better value and upside than running backs in the mid-rounds.

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Omar Cooper Jr.

NegativeRole21:01

Jets playmaker mentioned as late-round dart option; speaker acknowledges Jets have some weapons but does not want to draft pass catchers in the single worst offense in the NFL inside the top four rounds.

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Rashee Rice

NegativeBust8:11

Ian Hartitz fades Rasheed Rice despite his WR8-WR13 ADP (end of round two to mid-round three), citing multiple concerns: (1) off-field risk and behavioral volatility—Rice is one mistake away from being off the Chiefs and potentially out of the league; (2) limited receiver profile with 4.7-yard average target depth and league-leading screen pass percentage; (3) crowded Kansas City offense where defenses can stack the box against Kenneth Walker and low-ADOT routes, potentially suffocating Rice's role; (4) Mahomes potentially less mobile post-injury; (5) Chiefs' lack of extension plans and apparent distrust in Rice; (6) team's recent offensive struggles. Using a trade-value exercise, Hartitz suggests the Chiefs would trade Rice for nearly every other top-20 WR in the league except possibly Quentin Johnston, implying Rice is overvalued relative to his true talent level. While Rice has posted WR1 numbers in fantasy, Hartitz prefers Devonte Smith, Nico Collins, or other stud receivers without the execution risk. Hartitz: "He is such a limited player that we're having to draft so early in an offense that just hasn't even been good recently."

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveValue7:00

Ian Hartitz prefers Terry McLaurin as a wide receiver option in the draft range where Bucky Irving is being targeted, citing McLaurin as more alluring than investing in running backs with uncertain roles. McLaurin is part of Hartitz's preferred group of receivers (also including Mike Evans and Devonte Adams) that offer better value and upside than running backs in the mid-rounds.

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Travis Etienne

NegativeBust0:23

Ian Hartitz fades Travis Etienne as a consensus RB18–RB19 round-four pick, citing a likely 50/50 workload split with Alvin Kamara rather than the 70/30 split many assume. Etienne's 2025 receiving touchdowns (6 on 36 catches) were largely well-schemed opportunities from Liam Coen; his career receiving touchdown rate before 2025 was 1 on 132 catches. Kamara was RB5 in PPR in 2024 and remains a first-team rep participant in training camp. Etienne's yards per carry (4.0–4.1 over two seasons) shows no elite talent, and he has historically declined late-season (similar to Javonte Williams and Jonathan Taylor in 2024). The Saints' Vegas-implied scoring rank is 23rd (bottom-10 offense), limiting touchdown upside. Hartitz questions whether Etienne is special enough to overcome a not-so-special offensive situation and prefers receivers like Lamarr McConkey, T. Higgins, and Jaylen Waddle at similar or later ADP.

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Travis Kelce

NegativeRole10:43

Ian Hartitz notes that Travis Kelce will be 37 years old soon, suggesting the Chiefs may continue to feed Rasheed Rice the football rather than rely on an aging Kelce; however, this is presented as a question rather than a definitive statement about Kelce's role.

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Trey McBride

NegativeBust25:12

Ian Hartitz expresses a bold fade on Trey McBride at his current ADP, stating he does not want to attach himself to horrific offenses with such an early-round pick. McBride is grouped with Jeremiah Love as a player Hartitz is avoiding due to offensive environment concerns.

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Xavier Worthy

NegativeRole21:56

Ian Hartitz is drafting Xavier Worthy later than ADP due to Andy Reid's offseason note that the Chiefs didn't restore Worthy's lower ADOT routes after his early-season dislocated shoulder injury. Those routes were part of Worthy's workload during the playoff run and Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia (without Rasheed Rice). While Hartitz expects Worthy to reclaim most of that volume, Kenneth Walker's addition inside the 10-yard line may further limit Worthy's gadget touchdown opportunities.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

264
0:00Today I'm breaking down my top six fades ahead of the 2026 fantasy football season with a home league ADP inside the
0:07top six rounds, guys. All right, I'm not trying to take the easy way out here.
0:10These guys are going to be often times very highly ranked players because again, they're being drafted inside the top 70 in the first place. So very real
0:18chance we look even more stupid than usual in six short months. But for now, I am not drafting these guys. And
0:23accordingly, let's get after it. Up first is new Saints running back Travis Aan. Travis ETN, the new Twitter exing.
0:30We just have to say both these last names every single time we talk about this dude for the rest of time. But
0:35regardless guys, he's going about RB18 or RB1 19 depending on if you're playing over at Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo. Pretty much a consensus round four pick
0:42regardless of where you're at. And I'm not buying him there. I think this could be a far closer to a 50-50 split than
0:49many people are giving it credit for because I think a lot of people just assumed Alvin Camra wouldn't be playing football for the Saints in the year
0:552026. Okay. certainly didn't put his best foot forward last year. They had to do the contract, you know, restructure.
1:01Maybe something goes wrong in training cape and they decide to trade the guy.
1:04But from every bit of info we have at this moment in time, it sure does look like Chimera is going to be out there.
1:10And it looks like he could be out there a lot. Not to put too much stock in every single training camp report we
1:15get, guys, but he is actively getting first team reps alongside Travis Han.
1:19And why wouldn't he? The dude's been a freaking legend for his organization.
1:22And the fact he did restructure his contract, the fact that we've heard them talk about how the best years of Chimera's career came in more of a
1:29boomer zoom split with Mark Ingram, I think everyone is thinking because the money afforded to Travis Achan, it's going to be a 7030 split. But in
1:36reality, it could be a lot closer to 50/50, which is going to be really problematic for the artist known as Travis Han, if it's not going to be a
1:43great offense. I see the breakout potential for the Saints. Okay, year two, Kell Moore and Tyler Shook, you added Travis Han, you got Jordan Tyson.
1:51Maybe they do take their game to the next level. I did a video recently though talking about who Vegas. All right, not me. Vegas. The people in the
1:57desert who have far more money riding on getting this stuff right than any of us out there. What their preseason implied
2:03scoring ranks say about every team. The Saints came in at 23rd. Okay, that's a bottom 10 scoring offense. Out of those
2:09bottom 10 scoring offenses, yes, I do think the Saints have the best chance of rising up, but it's not a given. Okay,
2:14so it could be a bad offense. What's that split going to look like? I don't know about you, I'm expecting Chimera to
2:19get a lot of the pass down work. Not that Achan isn't a good receiver, okay?
2:24But consider this in Jacksonville last season. Travis Achan had six receiving touchdowns on 36 catches, guys.
2:31Previously, he had one on 132 career catches. Okay, I have gone back. I have watched the film. I have attempted to
2:37get better. A lot of these touchdowns really did seem to be of the wellkeemed variety. So, kudos to Liam Com for that.
2:45And kudos to to Travis Aan for again making the most of those opportunities.
2:49You know, he did have to catch the ball and get in the end zone in the first place. But Alvin Chimera is only one
2:55year removed from scoring more PPR points than Travis Aan ever has. Guys, RB5 in 2024 for Chimera. So, I know last
3:04year wasn't great and Father Tom is undefeated and maybe last year really was just a sign that he is dust, but you
3:10know, getting to play for two and a half months with the Spencer Rattler led Saints, like we didn't even get to see
3:16Chimera take advantage of the Jets and the Panthers and the Titans and some of these just again really bad defenses that we saw Tyler Shucken company do
3:24much much better things about, you know, down the stretch of the season. So, I think Chimera has always been a much
3:30better player here, which does go back over time. I get it. And we are playing for 2026. But if you take these dudes,
3:37top 10 career seasons in PPR points per game, the first seven all go to Mr.
3:41Alvin Camaro. So, for me, Travis Han honestly gives me some of these dead zone RB vibes. Okay, we're not expecting, at least I'm not expecting a
3:48ton of pass down work. The offense realistically could not be very good.
3:52We're not getting many scoring opportunities. Is Travis Achan that amazing of a talent? Look at their yards per carry these past two seasons.
4:00They're both that 4.0 4.1 guys. We've seen Achan breakdown as the season goes on. Not that that's, you know, just him.
4:06Javvante Williams that happened last year. Jonathan Taylor happened last year in terms of their yards per carry falling off. But I really struggle to
4:13think that Achan is some sort of special talent capable of overcoming what looks like a not so special situation. So Travis Achan going again inside the top
4:2050 picks. Not for me. I would much rather be looking at some of these wide receivers. We love Lab Mcconkey, T.
4:26Higgins, Jaylen Waddle. All these guys are going well after Travis Aan in ESPN leagues and it's a very similar story in
4:32the other home leagues. So for me, not going to be drafting Travis Achan at his current price this season. Next up, I
4:37got Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving, who don't look now, guys, is going as early as RB1 17, as low as RB21. Again, in our three home league,
4:45sleeper, Yahoo, and ESPN with our early ADP here. So looking at Bucky 2024, hell of a drug. This dude was one of the most
4:52fun players to watch with the football in his hands. Some of the, you know, reversing field runs, just absolutely fantastic stuff and was a major piece
4:59for a lot of championship fantasy teams.
5:00So, I don't want to take that away from him. 2025 was rough. I know the injuries were there. All right. And they were not
5:07good. Honestly, the shoulder issue was something that persisted well into this off season for Mr. Bucky Irving. RJ Harvey, too. Don't look now. Just
5:15saying. Honestly, R.J. Harvey is another fate. I'm not going to get into him because he's a little bit cheaper in these streets and everything. But the
5:21big issue for me getting back on track here for Bucky Irving, I'm looking at the role and I just see a between the
5:2620s running back in an offense that is probably going to be okay. Not exactly a juggernaut out here. Between the 20s
5:33role is a death no for these fantasy running backs. Okay. And Buckyy's not the only one that I think could be
5:40experiencing it. There's an argument for Jarian Price in Seattle. There's an argument for Bashalt Tutin in Jacksonville. In Buckyy's case though, I
5:47think he's going to be the starting running back for Tampa Bay. That's fine.
5:50That's D Andy. He's probably leading the way in touches, passdowns, reigning, defending, Steelers team MVP. Kenneth Gable is coming on the football field.
5:58Short yardage. That's Shawn Tucker's job, guys. It's a new offensive coordinator. Maybe Zack Robinson changes things, but do we want to have the
6:06undersized running back coming off a really bad shoulder injury really taking the pounding at the goal line? Last year it was nine to zero in favor of Shawn
6:16Tucker versus Bucky Irving on carries inside the five yard line. That's a big gap to be overcoming. So is Bucky reasonable enough? Because the argument
6:25would be like, okay, well, he's going RB21 in some of these spots. You can get him maybe as early as, you know, I
6:30should say as late as the early portions of round five. We're still talking about a top 50, a top 55 pick for someone who
6:36is not getting the two single most valuable assets that we want out of our running backs in fantasy football in guys. So Buccaneers, where I'm wrong is
6:46they got a badass offensive line. Baker Mayfield plays like he did in 2024 in the first six weeks of 2025 and the team
6:53ends up being really good. So 15 touches per game for Bucky Irving. A healthier Bucky Irving winds up going a long way.
6:59But again, similar story as Travis Aan here. I just look at these wide receivers in this part of the draft and
7:04those are the guys I want to be attacking. The Terry McLaren, Mike Evans, Devonte Adams, I mentioned McConi, Higgins, Waddle. All these guys
7:14are so much more alluring for me. And this is a big reason too, guys, why I love going with more of a hero or
7:19superhero RB build. Getting one or two studs early so I don't have to worry about the Bucky Irvings of the world. I
7:25don't have to worry about Travis Han. I can be taken in my opinion the best assets at the point in the draft and
7:31that is these awesome wide receivers. So again I like Christian Watson even guys like Carnell Tate Roma Dunay like if we
7:37are in drafts where Buckyy's falling a little bit more so into that uh station.
7:41If Bucky gets closer to guys like Jaylen Mo Rico Dattle kind of that ambiguous muddled RB3 tier okay because that's what I think he is in this new version
7:50of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield.
7:52really really struggle to get there from more of a projection standpoint and I just don't like betting on guys who need
7:58to be among the league's best players at the position to make up for a lack of a workload as a top five round pick. So
8:05again, maybe Bucky proves me wrong, maybe he's just awesome. Seems like a really steep bet for me in the first five rounds. I am out on Bucky Irving in
8:112026. Let's move on to a wide receiver that really, really can make me look stupid here, guys. But I am fading
8:17Rasheed Rice ahead of the 2026 fantasy football season. He's going as early as wide receiver eight, as low as wide receiver 13 in our home league cohort.
8:26End of round two, maybe mid round three.
8:29That's what we have to use for a guy who is one single more mistake knucklehead move, whatever you want to call it, away
8:37from probably being off the Chiefs and arguably being out of the league, guys.
8:41That's what we're dealing with here.
8:42Again, he's out of jail. He's on the practice field. Okay, the knee is right.
8:46the it's hilarious to me still that I have to add those caveats when talking about Rasheed Rice. Like this did not
8:51happen that long ago. While he's out there, it's going to be tough to not view him as a pretty darn good fancy
8:59asset. That's what he's been his entire career. But in addition to some of the potential for future suspension, for a future injury flare up, because let's
9:08face it, he's not he's the only guy in the league with those possibilities. And I'm not even trying to come to you guys
9:13as, you know, oh, I'm so much I'm such a better person than you. I'm so holy. I'm not drafting, you know, a bad apple like
9:19Rasheed Rice. I drafted Deshawn Watson after the whole, you know, you you know, I drafted him after that before we knew
9:25he was completely cooked in Cleveland.
9:26Okay. So, I'm not against drafting objectively not so great human beings at a discount in fantasy land, but we're not getting that. End of round two, mid
9:36round three, and then let's look at the player. Guys, this is a fun exercise I did the other day. We can do it
9:43together. Okay, let's scroll down the wide receivers until we find one that we think the Chiefs would not trade Rashi Rice for. Like straight up. All right,
9:53we're using a little bit of like a real life talent ranking here. Okay, so I'll look over at underdog fans, see how I
9:59like their wide receiver list. We got Rashi Rice there. Devonte Smith, Chris Ave Flowers, T. Higgins, Amecha Ibuka, Lab Makoni, Malik Neighbors, Tedo
10:06McMillan, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Wadd, any of those guys. [snorts] You think the Chiefs wouldn't trade Rashi Rice for in a heartbeat? I sure think they would.
10:16Terry McLaren, Luther Burton, Mike Evans, Devonte Adams. Maybe you can have the age thing. I don't know. I still think they probably rather have Adams
10:24this year. Jameson Williams, DJ Moore, Christian Watson, Carnell Tate, Roma Dunay, BTJ, Jordan Tyson, Parker
10:33Washington, Marvin Harrison Jr. If you guys have stopped, I haven't. Mai Lemon, Quinton Johnson, that might be it. He's
10:43going to need a new contract soon. It's Quinton Johnson. I think he can still have a nice season with the Chargers.
10:49Probably Quinton Johnson is where I'm drawing the line. Metaf, Pierce, Sutton, Reed, Goblin, Addison, DS, Xavier
10:58Worthy. Like, that's brutal. Okay. And I really don't think it's that far-fetched. We have heard Mahomes every single off season talking about getting
11:07back in the deep ball like it's the Green Goblin mask calling out for him.
11:11Rice has caught one pass in his career, thrown 30 plus yards downfield. Don't you think they would have been tapping more into that if the man could go out
11:17there and do it? He is good with the football in his hands. There's a reason why he's put up wide receiver one
11:23numbers on a fantasy per game basis. But come on, Khalo Shakur is really good with the football in his hands. We don't
11:29see the Bills build their entire freaking passing game around Kyo Shakur.
11:33I literally feel like that's what we're dealing with here. Fancy Khalo Shakur if the Bills just decided to build their entire passing game around him. And
11:40guess what? That wouldn't be a good idea. The Bills are a really high-scoring offense. The Chiefs have done this and they haven't been a really
11:45high-scoring offense. 15th, 15th and 21st I think last year in terms of scoring, you know, points per game as an offense as a whole. So maybe Eric Benemy
11:54comes in, he looks at Worthy, he looks at Thornton, he says, "You know what? We got to keep going with what we're
11:58doing." Travis Kelce is going to be 37 here soon. Let's keep feeding Rasheed Rice the football. But is it going to be
12:04that easy still? Kenneth Walker's here.
12:07They want to run the football. We've talked about that downfield passing game, the lack thereof. Are defenses really gonna continue to stay in this
12:14too high shell with Xavier Worthy and Taekwon Thornton being the guys they're supposed to be scared of? I don't know because the more and more not to try to
12:23say that I'm just the world's best ex's nose guys here, but I'm thinking if you're a defense and you're trying to
12:29plan for the Kansas City Chiefs, Mahomes maybe a little bit hobble, maybe not running around as much. You look at Kenneth Walker running the football, you
12:35look at Rasheed Rice getting all these screens, all these all this low dot stuff. Guess what? You crowd the line of
12:41scrimmage, you bring a safety down, you pay more attention to that, and maybe that opens up the rest of the offense.
12:46Maybe it just makes life really freaking hard for Rasheed Rice and Kenneth Walker, man. So, I just feel like there are so many ways that this can go wrong
12:56off the field, healthwise, him just not being that great of an NFL receiver-wise. and the Chiefs saying, "Do we really want to continue to build
13:04our offense around a guy who we don't trust, who we don't exactly have plans of extending, and we have to use a round
13:10two or round three pick on it." So, give me Devonte Smith, give me Nico Collins, give me any of these fellow stud wide
13:16receivers that don't involve me taking a chance on Rasheed Rice. Accordingly, I am drafting Xavier Worthy a little bit later. There was also this one note from
13:24Andy Reid this offseason talking about worthy where he basically said coming off that dislocated shoulder early in the year they didn't put the same routes
13:31back on his plate and I am pretty freaking sure guys by that he means those lower ADOT routes that would seep
13:37into Rasheed Rice's workload in the first place. That's what Worthy was doing down the stretch of their initial playoff run and then that huge Super
13:44Bowl blowout loss to the Eagles. Yes, that was without Rasheed Rice in the lineup. I get it. I still think he'll
13:49get most of those. But Kenneth Walker now inside the 10. Maybe that takes away from some of the gadgety, you know,
13:55touchdowns. Rasheed Rice literally has Dallas Goddard numbers in terms of his touchdowns coming so close to the goal line. But again, it's Rasheed Rice. He
14:04puts up wide receiver one numbers a lot of times in fantasy land. So, we go ahead and, you know, don't completely
14:08worry about it. But 4.7 yard average target def.
14:17He leads all wide receivers percentage of targets that were screens. He is such a limited player that we're having to draft so early in an offense that just
14:26hasn't even been good recently.
14:29So many ways that can go wrong. Give me any of those wide receivers going around that wide receiver one board line. Give
14:34me Devonte Williams. Give me anyone other than Rashid Rice at the end of round two into round three. Another wide receiver I'm fading in drafts this year.
14:41A bit cheaper but still DJ Moore guys.
14:44New Bills wide receiver one. And this one could go wrong really badly. I get that. He's around wide receiver 25 27
14:52ESPN sleeper Yahoo. That's again end of round five into round six. This is the cheapest guy. Him and Bucky Irving who
14:58we already discussed that I'm talking about here. It could just be as simple as it's Josh Allen's number one wide receiver. We saw a cool catch in
15:06training camp. Maybe I should change my entire opinion on life over that. Here is every single Bills wide receiver move since 2024. They have traded for DJ
15:17Moore. They traded for Amari Cooper.
15:19They drafted Keon Coleman, Kaden Prather, future Hall of Famer Skyler Bell. They signed in free agency. I did not make up any of these names. I swear
15:27to God, Josh Palmer, Curtis Samuel, Brandon Cooks, Gabe Davis, Elijah Moore, M. Collins, Mico Hardman, Tyrell Shavers, Quintes Cphus, Chase Clayool,
15:37Marquez Valdis Gantling, KJ Hamler, Jaylen Virgil, Devin Tomkins. It's like a list that people would just make fun of a really bad annoying nerdy fantasy
15:49guy for still believing.
15:51You know, it's like your nightmare blunt rotation that's on your dynasty bench.
15:55Still, the Bills of Life football team have been signing these guys to their team. And now we're supposed to believe no. All those other guys were rough. M.
16:05Hollands maybe the best one, honestly.
16:07Kind of sad. Probably shouldn't have let him go. DJ Moore, that's where they're right. I don't buy it, man. Why is he
16:16such a better fit for this system than he was with Ben freaking Johnson?
16:21Someone who we as a football society unanimously agree is one of the smartest and brightest minds that we have on the
16:28offensive side of the football. If Ben Johnson couldn't figure it out, if Ben Johnson really didn't want to figure it out, I I know they got Burden, they got
16:36Rome, they got Lovelin, they could use a wide receiver three though, I really do think if Ben Johnson thought that DJ
16:44Moore was still a great football player, they wouldn't have traded him. Caleb Williams, we got the completion percentage out there, okay? But we
16:52watched a lot of Bears games last year.
16:53We all did. I didn't exactly see one freaking gigantic misfire of another Caleb with DJ Moore. Okay, he missed him plenty of time. Sure. It wasn't Kyle
17:05Allen the Curtis Samuel back in 2019 or whatever. I'm still not over that. I'm still pissed about that. You hurt my guy
17:11so bad. Kyle Allen, I know DJ Moore is reuniting with Joe Brady. He had some good years with Joe Brady back in
17:18Carolina. Okay, that fact is not lost on me. DJ Moore is this generation's Andre Johnson sort of guy. Terry McLaren as
17:26well. You look at the career quarterback list, it's just one horrible guy after another. So guess what? Terry McLaren got Jaden Daniels and all of a sudden he
17:33put his best foot forward even when even when he was a little bit longer in the tooth. Maybe year nine DJ Moore is going
17:38to get Josh Allen. It's going to be that easy. But you know, I don't think it's as clean as saying, "Oh, DJ Moore is
17:44just going to be the new Stefon Diggs here." Honestly, comparing year9 DJ Moore to prime Stefon Diggs, a little bit insulted. Insulted him a little bit.
17:52You know, DJ Moore was perceived as not a great fit in Ben Johnson's system because of his lack of timing because he
17:59would give up on routes. And I just don't know how that is suddenly a great fit in Buffalo. The best part of Caleb
18:07Williams game is extending plays. He had the longest time to throw. It's avoiding sacks. It's giving his guys a chance to
18:12make plays out of structure. and we weren't really getting that. We did a couple times, but we're talking about a guy who has been useless in fantasy for
18:22two years. We're talking about a guy whose efficiency numbers, all the underlying stuff that we try to look at to say how good is someone, they've been
18:28going downhill for years.
18:31Maybe Josh Allen brings it up, but we talked about the receivers that have joined Buffalo. And the ones that have been there other than Ko Shakur has been
18:38okay in Fantasy Land. Shout out Kal Shakur. Yak beast like a second time. I think we talked about him in this video.
18:44Other than Kalo Shakur, everyone's been useless. Dude, do we really think Buffalo and their everyone eats mantra, which has been great for them. The most
18:52consistent high-scoring offense alongside the Lions of the last half decade, the Buffalo Bills, they've been running the ball a lot very well. Why
19:00are they going to change all this for DJ Moore? I just don't see it, guys. Again, of every dude on here, he's the
19:07cheapest. If he leaks in the round seven, you know, literally around that kind of six, seven turn, I can see it.
19:15It's a situation where the guys he's going around also have their fair share of questions over on ESPN. Roman Dunay, DeAndre Swift, David Montgomery,
19:26Jadarian Price, Bashalt Tutin, Luther Burton. Luther Burden's going that freaking late on ESPN.
19:31That is crazy. I'm sorry I'm drafting all those guys over DJ Moore. I again could very well see this one going
19:38wrong. The numbers have been down for DJ Moore. It's a system that has not gotten the most out of their wide receivers in
19:44fantasy land and we've seen repeatedly make bad investments at wide receiver.
19:48And Ben freaking Johnson couldn't figure it out. I am not drafting DJ Moore as current in 2026. And we're going to end
19:55things with a little bit of a two for here. They're on the same team and it's pretty much the same reason why I'm
19:59fading both of them. But Bree Hall and Garrett Wilson, I can't do it, guys.
20:05Garrett is going as high as wide receiver 12, low as wide receiver 18.
20:08He's pretty much a consensus round three, four pick. Bree Hall pretty much a consensus round three pick. RB 15 to 17 again on across ESPN, Sleeper, and
20:15Yahoo. I hate this offense and I don't want to use a top 40, a top 45 pick on an offense that very realistically could
20:25be starting a really bad rookie down the stretch of the season and also very realistically could be the single worst offense in the NFL. I would personally
20:33not rank the Jets 32nd in terms of offenses going into this season. Okay, Vegas does though. Don't blame me. Don't yell at me. Yell at the people in the
20:42desert. [clears throat] Vegas has the Cardinals ranked 31st and the Jets ranked 32nd. The Browns are 30th. I think the Dolphins are 29. I
20:51probably have the Dolphins 32nd. I've moved the Jets up a little bit. Make your own list, guys. I guarantee you, you will have the Jets closer to 32 and
20:5916.
21:01The case for them, they got some playmakers. Garrett, you drafted Kenyan Sadik, you drafted Omar Cooper. I still believe in I still believe in AD
21:09Mitchell. I get it. I'm there with you guys. We got Brie Hall. Bruce Hall's a good running back. Garrett Wilson's a
21:13great wide receiver. The case for Garrett over the years has been all right, yes, the offense will suck, but who else is he going to throw the
21:20football to? He should be breezing past, you know, 150 targets with something close to good health. We don't have that anymore. And by the way, even when he
21:27did have that, we still weren't exactly getting amazing returns with Garrett Wilson. I know the per game numbers last year were fine in week six, you know,
21:34the six or seven game sample we had. But watch some of those numbers, guys. has watched that Tampa Bay game and just him
21:40eating eight yard freaking curls down multiple touchdowns in the second half with Tyrod Taylor feeding him the football. We've had some incredible
21:47catches from Garrett over the years. I think he's a great player. I would love to see him team up with someone like
21:52Arch Manning or Dante Moore, you know, whoever is going to be the quarterback that winds up leading the Jets in 2027
21:57beyond. There's more target competition than ever for Garrett. And we're still drafting him as a top four round pick.
22:04Too damn high for me. Pretty much the same thing with Bree Hall. RB 15 to 17.
22:10That seems fair enough. That's about where I have him ranked. Okay. I just don't want to draft him there. I don't
22:16want to draft any running back that could be on one of the single worst offenses in the league. You can throw
22:20Jeremiah Love in this, too, guys. I don't really want to draft him either.
22:22I've gotten him in rookie dynasty drafts, which maybe I shouldn't brag about because that tell tells you guys, you know, how a couple of the Dynasty
22:28squads have been doing. But America loves a comeback. Omar Cooper, Kenyan Sadique, you want to throw a late round dart at them? Fine. I don't want to
22:36draft guys that could be in the single worst offense in the NFL inside the top four rounds. Here's the last point. The
22:44Frank Reich, Gino Smith ticket, that's who we're trusting to figure this all out. And I know Gino didn't get much help with the Raiders last year. That
22:51was a disaster class. Let's say you just want to throw away the fact that he led the NFL in interceptions and sacks. It
22:57was going downhill in Seattle, too.
22:59There's a reason why they ended up going with Sam Donald over Gino Smith. I have I like to fancy myself a ball knower. I
23:06understand 2022 2023 Gino Smith in particular did a lot of good things. It was also a very volatile highwire act that he was running there. Go watch the
23:15highlights for yourself. Look at the numbers yourself. Like PFF has a big time throw rate metric which is just what it sounds like. You know these
23:21tight window sweet kind of plays and everything and they're a lot of fun.
23:24Gino Smith lived on those dimes and the double covers of Tyler Lockett. DK Mechaf making some big plays down the field. It makes sense that a 36-year-old
23:35aging quarterback who's losing a staff, who's losing a little bit of arm strength, who's maybe seeing the field a tick slower, all of a sudden has a
23:42pretty big falloff. 36 years old, it was a fun career renaissance for a minute, but let's face it, he's a journeyman.
23:48And if we again had to rank every single starting quarterback in the NFL, Gino Smith's coming in very low. Vegas doesn't expect the Jets to be any good
23:57as a team. I don't. I'm sure you don't.
23:59So why should we even expect Gino even if you want to say that Gino's better than I think is he gonna be out there in
24:05December? I don't think he will be. I think it's going to be Kade Clubick and that sucks. We could be going into
24:12the fantasy playoffs if we're lucky enough to be there with our Bree Hall and Garrett Wilson bags with a freaking Vegas team total of 12 and a half points
24:21with Cade Clubnick under center with Frank Reich calling the plays. Frank Reich is even there. This will be potentially Frank Reich's third consecutive NFL
24:32season where he gets fired mid-season.
24:35All right, he did some good things with the Eagles back in the day. He had a revolving door at quarterback with the
24:41Colts. But guys, in 2022, he got fired for Jeff Saturday mid-season on a really bad Colts team. Old Matt Ryan. Give him
24:50a break if you want. 2023, he goes ahead and leads the Panthers. He again gets fired mid-season. Maybe it was rookie
24:56year Bryce Young. Okay. 2024 takes it off. Didn't screw anything up. There we go. 2025 in Stanford head coach Frank Reich led
25:06the 122nd ranked scoring offense out of 136 division one programs.
25:12That's the guy who we are expecting to team up with Gino Smith and make life happen for Garrett Wilson and Bruce
25:19Hall. I don't want that. I talked about Trey McBride and Jeremiah Jeremiah Love.
25:24I don't want that either. I just don't want to be attaching myself to these horrific offenses with such an early round pick. The volume for Bree Hall
25:33could be there. I'm If I had to rank these dudes, like Garrett's the one I'm really having a bigger time struggling
25:39with. The bull case for Bree Hall, if you still want to go on that route, because I looked it up, there's been 14
25:45top 12 running backs and PPR points per game who were on bottom 10 scoring offenses over the last decade. All right, so that's not great. That's 1.4
25:53per season. But the ones who have managed to again still survive and fantas offense kind of did what Bree did back in 2023. They caught a ton of
26:02passes and we do know that as a facet of his game where he's good at. But I'm not even as convinced that Bree Hall has
26:07this 80 catch upside the same way he has in past years because of the ways I'm expecting Kenyon Sadi and Omar Cooper to
26:12be used which is you know tethered to the line of scrimmage doing a lot of screens and things of that nature
26:16because their biggest, you know, club in their bag is their yak ability. So again, so many better picks for me. If
26:22they were mid-round picks, round five, round six or so, great. Okay, then I think it's more appropriately, you know, baked into their cost. Right now, I
26:30don't see at all. Bree Hall and Garrett Wilson, not for me in 2026. With all that said though, everyone don't hate
26:36the player, hate the ADP. All right, any of these guys, if we see them throughout August, everyone wises up a little bit,
26:41they start hating them as well. If they drop around, we'll completely reassess things. Again, I'm going off where the ADP is standing here as I'm recording
26:48this on July 29th. So, things can and will change between now and week one.
26:52Again, I'm highlighting these guys' fades. I don't overly expect my opinion to be changing radically just because of a few training camp highlights or, you
26:59know, beat reporters saying this or that. But again, just something to keep in mind out here in these streets. But let me know in the comments if you think
27:05any of these takes are particularly egregious. Again, was trying to take a stand with some of these guys who are going a little bit higher up. I just
27:12think it's lame when people are like, "Oh yeah, I'm out on Daniel Jones this year." Or I just don't see it for Tyler
27:17Alier. Like, yeah, no, no freaking [ __ ] man. Look how low they're going in drafts in the first place. So, anyway,
27:23appreciate you guys tuning in as well.
27:25Football's back, baby. It's in the air.
27:27Ready to get excited and get going into August and just continue providing content because I freaking love it. And if I go more than a day without talking
27:33about football, writing about football, I become a pain in the ass for Mrs.
27:37Harders to deal with. And none of us want that. So, anyway guys, that's going to do it for me. If you like the video,
27:42please like the video. Hit that subscribe button. Always helps out as well. And hey, if you want all my rankings and written content that can be
27:47behind a payw wall from time to time, go ahead and use that code Ian20. Head on over to Rotoire and check out all of our
27:52tools and goodness for it yourself. But with all that said, I'm Ian Hardit. I'm out. And until next time, have a great
27:58day everybody.

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