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Despite declining from 1,200 yards per season (2016-2022) to the 850-yard range and from nearly 10 touchdowns per season to about four, Kelce enters his 14th season at age 37 in an improved Chiefs situation. The team missed the playoffs last year and lost both starting cornerbacks, forcing higher offensive volume. Patrick Mahomes is recovering from a serious knee injury, which means less running and more easy throws to avoid the pass rush, setting up Kelce as a high-volume PPR asset. His ADP is outside the top 12 among tight ends, offering a draft-day discount relative to his expected high-volume PPR role.

Andrews posted a career-low 422 yards last season despite playing all 17 games for the second year in a row, averaging only about four targets per game—his fewest since his rookie year. With Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar no longer with the team, Andrews should see a bump in targets; Likely swiped 194 targets over the last four years, and he and Kolar combined for nearly two targets per game last season. Those targets should now go to Andrews. His only competition for tight end targets is blocking specialist Durham Smythe and a pair of rookies taken in the fourth and fifth round of the draft (Matthew Hibner and Josh Cuevas), giving him a clear path to increased target share. Andrews' struggles last season were related to Lamar Jackson's injury-plagued season. Jackson is healthy entering training camp, and he and Andrews should continue to build on their already great chemistry, supporting a rebound in production. Taking a shot on Andrews at his TE14 price is a low-risk gamble with significant upside given the target opportunity, quarterback health, and reduced competition.

With A.J. Brown no longer on the Eagles, Goedert becomes the primary pass catcher with physicality in the red zone. DeVonta Smith weighs 170 pounds and Makai Lemon weighs less than 200 pounds, so when the Eagles need someone to make big catches in traffic and in the red zone, Goedert will be the preferred option for Jalen Hurts. Goedert could surpass his career high of 60 catches in PPR formats, making him a strong PPR option despite facing serious touchdown regression (11 touchdowns last year after scoring 12 times 2021-2024). His ADP is TE15.

Strange finished 2025 on a high note, averaging five targets and 48 yards with three touchdowns over the last seven games. The Jaguars added blocking tight end Nate Boerkircher in the draft, so Strange should be freed up to run more routes. Trevor Lawrence has proven to be at his best when throwing to the middle of the field, and Coach Liam Coen seemed very aware of Lawrence's strengths during the second half of last season. Drafting Strange near TE20 could result in a borderline TE1 season as the deep sleeper with a coaching staff that appears ready to unleash him as a pass catcher.

George Pickens is going at WR11 and represents the cleaner bet according to the source. His career reception arc (52, 63, 59, 93) and touchdown line (5, 5, 3, 9) show a legitimate jump in 2025 that was not a fluke driven by opportunity but rather a talent-level receiver finally working with a quarterback who could get him the ball in space. Dak Prescott unlocked Pickens after he left Pittsburgh. When both receivers were healthy last season, Pickens led Dallas in target share at 20.9 percent and led the team in air yards share at 30.5 percent—both marks came at Lamb's expense. The post-bye stretch from 2025 is the clearest preview: Pickens averaged nine targets, six catches, 94 yards, and 18.1 fantasy points per game, a legitimate WR1 floor from a player going in the mid-third. Pickens ranked in the top 2 percent in outside-receiver route rate and in the top 11 percent in yards per route run—a pure perimeter player who does one thing with precision, a skill set that plays with Prescott's boundary-throw tendencies. The franchise tag eliminates any offseason drama or contract-holdout risk, locking Pickens into Dallas for 2026. He has the ceiling for a top-5 finish at the position if Prescott stays healthy. The source recommends taking Pickens at WR11 because you are paying mid-third prices for the current alpha in the Dallas passing game.

CeeDee Lamb is going at WR5 in fantasy drafts, but the source argues this ADP is unjustified. Receptions have declined three consecutive years (135 to 101 to 75), touchdowns have followed the same downward path (14 to 6 to 3 since 2023), and his drop rate ranked 77th out of 78 qualifying wide receivers. In the 11 games where both Lamb and George Pickens were active and healthy last season, Lamb averaged 5.4 receptions, 78 yards, 8.5 targets, and 0.3 touchdowns for a 14.8 fantasy-point pace—solid but not WR5 production. The source contends the fair price for Lamb is WR8 to WR9, and at WR5 you are paying for the 2023 version of a player who has declined in every major volume category since. While Lamb is an elite route runner who ranked in the top 1 percent in man-coverage yards per route run last season and in the top 10 percent in both targets per game and yards per route run, his athleticism and scheme fit with Dallas have not translated to sustained production.

Willis has functioned as the NFL's most-efficient passer during the last two seasons despite just six career starts and 155 career pass attempts. He leads all QBs since 2024 in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, yards per completion, completion rate, passer rating, and explosive pass play rate. Most impressive are his EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected marks. In 2025, his average depth of target increased to 9.7 yards (from 7.5 in 2024), showing he was not being schemed to success and featured downfield dimes on film. As a rusher, Willis averaged the position's fourth-most yards per scramble (8.9) the last two seasons and leads all QBs with 10.6 yards per rush on read options. Reportedly ran a 4.37-second 40-yard dash at Liberty's Pro Day. Ian Hartitz ranks him QB18 (pick 122) while ESPN has QB27 (168.4) and Sleeper QB21 (157.2)—extremely cheap relative to his efficiency profile. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik spent 15 years working with Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. Risk: Dolphins' pass-catching group ranks among league's worst, and Vegas projects them 29th in scoring.

Murray checks three key boxes for late-round QB upside: (1) rushing upside—he averaged his most rushing yards per game (34.6) since his ACL injury in 2025, with 8.5 yards per scramble ranking eighth among QBs and ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Jaxson Dart; (2) improved offensive environment—Minnesota finished 13th in Supporting Cast Rating with QB whisperer Kevin O'Connell, a major upgrade from Arizona's 28th-ranked cast in 2025; (3) dangerous dual-threat profile. Despite a rough 2025 season, advanced stats showed promise: EPA per dropback (+0.06, 15th) outpaced Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert, while his PFF passing grade (69.5, tied 22nd) cleared Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, and Baker Mayfield. Ian Hartitz ranks him QB17 (pick 121) while ESPN has QB18 (157.6) and Sleeper QB20 (143.6). Murray still posted five top-5 fantasy weeks in the last two seasons, matching Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence. Risk: J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings and Murray's shorter leash due to his 5-foot-10 frame.

Goff has consistently smashed preseason ADP over recent years: QB27 ADP/QB13 finish (2022), QB18 ADP/QB15 finish (2023), QB19 ADP/QB7 finish (2024), QB18 ADP/QB12 finish (2025). He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns since 2022 and has ripped off three consecutive seasons with at least 4,500 passing yards—the rest of the NFL has only six combined. At age 31, his passing yards over/under (4,099.5) is 100 yards higher than any QB on DraftKings, and his passing TD over/under (29.5) ranks third, with RotoWire projections placing him top-4 in both. Despite lacking rushing production, Goff has eight top-5 weekly fantasy finishes in the last two seasons, trailing only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. Ian Hartitz ranks him QB16 (pick 110) while ESPN has him QB16 (152.8) and Sleeper QB16 (122.9), making him undervalued relative to Matthew Stafford (QB8, 97.1) and Dak Prescott (QB9, 98). Per JJ Zachariason, there is no reason for Goff to be going 5.5 rounds after Stafford and Prescott given his consistent ADP-smashing track record.

Mayfield's 2025 decline came amid significant injury accumulation, not talent erosion. He played through a full list of issues that limited his performance in the latter half of the season after an MVP-caliber start (Weeks 1-6). His career trajectory shows sustained excellence: 2023 saw career highs in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28) leading Tampa Bay to an NFC South title and playoff victory; 2024 he posted 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns under OC Liam Coen with the Bucs ranking fourth in scoring and capturing another division title before a playoff loss. Ian Hartitz ranks him QB20 (pick 124) while ESPN has QB19 (160.6) and Sleeper QB18 (141.3). The bull case hinges on believing the 2025 injury list explains the decline and that Mayfield returns to his 2023-2024 form with health restored.

Robinson's 2025 breakout (92 receptions, 1,014 yards, 4 TDs) was driven by opportunity created when Malik Nabers missed most of the season with the Giants. Now in Tennessee, Robinson should revert to his 2023-24 baseline of 77 catches, 612 yards, and 2 TDs. The Titans drafted Carnell Tate fourth overall to be the primary receiver, and Robinson will share work with Calvin Ridley and tight end Gunnar Helm. Jim Coventry is fading Robinson at WR43, viewing that cost as the ceiling.

Metcalf posted career lows last season with 59 catches and 850 yards. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 14.7 PPR points, but defenses increased bracket coverage in the final eight games, dropping him to 10.5 PPR points. The addition of Michael Pittman to take possession targets will further limit Metcalf's role to intermediate and deep threats in a low-aggression passing attack. Jim Coventry expects too many low-volume games to justify WR38 ADP.

Despite two excellent seasons averaging 78 catches, 1,049 yards, and 7.5 TDs, Sutton's role is at risk. In Weeks 7-11 last year, Denver experimented with Troy Franklin as the lead receiver, and Sutton averaged just 10.1 PPR points during that stretch. Though Franklin's experiment failed and Sutton rebounded to 16.5 PPR points in the next five games, the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle signals a return to the Weeks 7-11 downgrade scenario for a full season. At age 31, Sutton at WR36 ADP is tough to draft.

Olave's late-season surge (averaging 8 catches, 117 yards, 1.33 TDs over final three games) was inflated by Devaughn Vele's injury and lack of reliable replacement receivers. With first-round draft pick Jordyn Tyson added, Olave should revert to his Weeks 1-13 baseline of 14.3 PPR points. Jim Coventry says the WR10 ADP is too aggressive; he'd need to fall to WR13 before considering drafting him.

Scored 23 fantasy points per game in Weeks 10-18, the most of any QB, but the source cautions against expecting nine rushing touchdowns again. Lawrence comes in at ADP QB11.

Renewed fantasy excellence in 2025 was almost entirely due to career-high rushing numbers, which the source cautions shouldn't be expected to persist coming off a torn ACL. Kansas City's supporting cast is ranked 18th, with Kenneth Walker as the only truly meaningful addition. Mahomes posted borderline QB1 numbers in 2023 and 2024 before booming in 2025 thanks to previously unforeseen rushing volume. He comes in at ADP QB12.

All 23 QBs to post a touchdown rate of at least 7 percent saw their mark fall the following season; Stafford's was 7.7 percent last season, suggesting regression risk. However, he still posted eight top-5 weekly fantasy finishes in 2024-25. Stafford comes in at ADP QB14.

Willis leads the NFL in EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected over the last two seasons. He is one of just six QBs projected to clear 100 rush attempts in 2026. Of 28 QBs with at least 100 rush attempts over the last 10 years, 93% (26 QBs) managed top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis. Willis should be the priority late-round dart for drafters who missed earlier dual-threat options and comes in at ADP QB21, not even priced inside the position's top-20.

Responsible for two of the position's top-6 all-time best seasons in fantasy points per game (2019, 2024). Jackson is projected for 119 rush attempts in 2026, making him one of the league's most run-heavy quarterbacks. Among QBs posting elite 20+ fantasy points per game over the last decade, half of the top-20 overall scores featured QBs with 100+ rush attempts, and 51% averaged 4.5+ rush attempts per game.

Murray averaged 34.6 rushing yards per game last season—his most since his ACL injury—and is projected for 71 rushing attempts in 2026 (compared to 78 in 17 games in 2024). His five top-5 fantasy weeks over the last two seasons match production from Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence. While there is some risk that backup J.J. McCarthy could get the call if the offense struggles, the price is low enough to make Murray a fantastic late-round dart at ADP QB20.

Proven 22+ fantasy point upside; Herbert could find himself in a vastly superior offensive environment thanks to a healthy offensive line (returns of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt in 2026) and the addition of OC Mike McDaniel. The 28-year-old just ran for a career-high 498 yards while navigating behind a banged-up offensive line. McDaniel has continued the Shanahan way of making more with less at QB, and a massive MVP-level breakout could be on the way. Herbert comes in as QB9 in ADP but this potential reality is more reflected in early MVP betting odds.

The all-time leader in QB career fantasy points per game hasn't finished worse than QB2 since 2020. Allen has maintained a strong hit rate when drafted in the Round 2-3 range: 50% playoff roster appearance in 2020 (ADP QB10-82), 49% in 2021 (ADP QB2-26), 58.6% in 2022 (ADP QB1-21), 62.1% in 2023 (ADP QB2-20), 58.2% in 2024 (ADP QB1-23), and 57.5% in 2025 (ADP QB1-23). The Bills' heavy use of the tush push at the goal line—with an 83.1% conversion rate versus Philadelphia's 73.2%—provides fantasy upside unavailable to other QBs; Allen and Jalen Hurts are the only two QBs with 30+ fantasy points from 1-yard line rushes over the last two seasons.

Love ranks third in EPA per dropback since taking over in 2023, but has not regained his first-season fantasy heights, falling from QB5 in 2023 to QB17 in 2024. He comes in at ADP QB17.

Averaged an elite 21.9 fantasy points per game each of the last two seasons that he's been fully healthy (2022, 2024). Burrow is positioned in Tier 3 as a great real-life QB with sky-high fantasy ceiling, coming in at ADP QB4.

Joined Cam Newton, Justin Herbert, and Robert Griffin as the only rookie QBs to average north of 20 fantasy points per game. Daniels is projected for 124 rush attempts in 2026, the league's highest among QBs, positioning him as a top dual-threat option.

Only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points from rushing last season. Dart managed 19.9 fantasy points per game (QB8!) after taking over in Week 4 despite an underwhelming group of pass-catchers and Matt Nagy's scheme. However, the Giants' supporting cast is ranked 19th, and both top playmakers Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers are coming off major season-ending injuries that could leave them at far less than 100 percent health during early portions of the season. Dart comes in at ADP QB8.

Leads the NFL in passing touchdowns since 2022 and has ripped off three consecutive seasons with at least 4,500 passing yards; the rest of the NFL has six combined. Goff posted eight top-5 weekly fantasy finishes in 2024-25. The source notes having true late-round options like Goff makes waiting as long as possible to get a QB in re-draft land very intriguing. He comes in at ADP QB16.

2025 (18.7 PPG) was the first season as a starter that Hurts failed to average at least 20 fantasy points per game. The Eagles didn't run fewer tush pushes at the goal line overall last season; the problem was their offense simply got to the one-yard line less often than in past years. Hurts is projected for 115 rush attempts in 2026.

Led the NFL in essentially every meaningful passing efficiency metric last season and now gets to play with a new-and-improved wide receiver room. Maye is positioned as a great real-life QB with sky-high fantasy ceiling at ADP QB3.

The source calls Prescott the NFC's version of Joe Burrow, noting nobody should be surprised if the Cowboys lead the NFL in scoring. He had five top-5 fantasy weeks in the last two seasons, matching Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Prescott comes in at ADP QB10.

The NFL's fastest QB was the QB7 in fantasy points per game in year one with coach Ben Johnson. The question posed is: what if Caleb starts hitting his layups? Williams comes in at ADP QB7.

Posted QB11, QB7, QB13, and QB4 in fantasy points per game across four seasons, showing volatility. Purdy's fantasy upside depends on whether his various elderly playmakers can stay healthy. He comes in at ADP QB13.

Posted QB8 and QB11 fantasy finishes to start his career despite very underwhelming passing efficiency metrics. Nix is coming off his fourth career ankle/foot surgery and isn't necessarily guaranteed to be as fleet-footed as normal. However, the Broncos' supporting cast improved significantly with the trade for Jaylen Waddle, who can consistently attract secondary attention. Denver has completed just 12 of 67 passes thrown 30+ yards downfield the last two seasons (17.9% catch rate, second-lowest in NFL), so Waddle should help the deep ball. Nix comes in at ADP QB15.