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6 QBs we need FIXED in fantasy + 8 players to start, sit in your flex in Week 4

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 29 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 1, 2026
Published
Thu, October 1, 2026
52
Player insights
37
Players mentioned
Topics
C.J. StroudJalen HurtsCam WardJordan LoveDavid MontgomeryDenzel BostonJameson WilliamsJustin HerbertNico CollinsA.J. BrownChristian WatsonDarren WallerDeshaun WatsonDeVonta Smith
Player analysis

Player insights

52

A.J. Brown

NegativeInjury37:35

A.J. Brown hasn't been available since the first half of week one, and the Eagles' offensive scheme was built around him in the X receiver position. His absence has directly contributed to the team's offensive struggles and poor results.

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C.J. Stroud

NegativeProjection0:12

Matt Harmon has settled on Stroud in the quarterback 12 to 16 range for fantasy purposes; he notes that Stroud's actual play this year has matched that tier, and the stats bear that out. Harmon remains optimistic about Stroud's performance despite recent offensive struggles.

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NegativeRole21:21

Matt Harmon notes that CJ Stroud is polarizing on the internet and has been let down by his environment, though he's not totally blameless. Without Nico Collins the last two weeks, Harmon questions what the Texans can do. The Texans' rushing game has collapsed: they were encouraged by their rushing success rate in Week 1 but are now 32nd in stuff rate on running back runs, with 28.8% of their runs going for zero yards.

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NegativeProjection26:00

Stroud has been solid so far but is limited by his supporting cast; the Texans' receivers struggle to get open, constraining his ability to produce explosive plays. The offensive line and receiver separation issues are systemic problems beyond the quarterback's control.

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PositiveProjection38:21

Matt Harmon notes that C.J. Stroud's success rate is up this year and he's pushing the ball more; yards lost per sack has improved by over a yard, indicating he's getting the ball away quickly and stepping up in the pocket rather than drifting and scrambling excessively as in prior years; down-to-down play is better than perceived, though the Texans are plagued by catastrophic mistakes like failed fourth downs and red zone turnovers.

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Cam Ward

NegativeProjection44:18

Matt Harmon mentions Cam Ward as one of the quarterbacks to be discussed in the segment on QBs needing to be fixed in fantasy, though specific analysis is cut off in the transcript.

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NegativeProjection48:07

Matt Harmon expresses serious concern about Cam Ward's fantasy viability, noting that his statistical performance has been 'so, so bad' in both his first and second seasons; he does not believe it will improve this year and questions whether head coach Brian Daboll will survive the season given the team's poor vibes and performance.

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NegativeRole48:15

The Giants' offensive scheme suggests the coaching staff does not trust Cam Ward; they employ a run-run-pass sequence repeatedly, indicating a lack of confidence in his ability to execute the offense, which constrains his fantasy upside.

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Christian Watson

NegativeProjection0:10

Christian Watson is playing great and will continue to accumulate volume stats despite the Packers' offensive dysfunction. However, the down-to-down efficiency is dire. Matt Harmon notes that while Watson and Matthew Golden will get numbers due to high pass volume and Love's continued big-play hunting, the offense's 29th-ranked drive-scoring percentage and collapsing run game mean efficiency will suffer. Injury concern: some injury analysts on Twitter observed Watson potentially pulling up at the end of the Falcons game on a route, though he is not yet on the injury report. If Watson goes down, the receiver room becomes critically thin with only Sky Moore (targeted on 27% of routes against Falcons) and limited depth.

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Darren Waller

NegativeRole46:05

Waller has taken a step back as a blocker, which is a concern in the Eagles' offensive system that emphasizes tight end blocking and edge-setting; this limits his role in the run-heavy scheme they want to employ.

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David Montgomery

NegativeBust25:15

Matt Harmon flagged Montgomery as a sell-high candidate after Week 1 touchdowns; he doesn't fit the Texans' current offensive situation and should be traded if he scores again. Harmon also criticized Montgomery's decision-making on a failed fourth-and-one conversion, noting he bounced outside when he should have planted his foot and attacked the hole—a concerning miss for a back known for intelligent running.

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NegativeRole25:24

Matt Harmon notes that the Texans defense weakness undermines the original fantasy thesis for David Montgomery. The theory was that Montgomery would benefit from positive game scripts and nursing leads due to strong defense, but Texans defensive vulnerabilities at linebacker and safety mean they won't be one of the best defenses, limiting Montgomery's lead-nursing opportunities.

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Denzel Boston

PositiveMatchup57:03

Faces perfect matchup against Steelers on Thursday night; Steelers have allowed fourth-highest success rate against outside targets (62.62% success rate, 123 passing rating, 27-37 completions for 394 yards and 3 TDs on outside targets this year); Boston has run 91% of his routes from the outside with 8 receptions on 14 targets for 186 yards (tenth most in NFL); height/weight differential versus DBs is top-ten extreme on record; Matt Harmon is all in on Boston this week due to matchup.

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PositiveMatchup59:00

Denzel Boston is a sneaky start against the Steelers, who play a ton of zone and cover-4 defense; when they play man coverage, they get fried because they lack cornerback talent on the outside, which leans into Boston's strengths. Matt Harmon describes him as a hard charge despite last week's poor result in a weird game.

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Deshaun Watson

NegativeProjection60:35

Deshaun Watson is still playing really shaky despite good results the last two weeks; Matt Harmon doesn't trust him and expects a low-scoring game (38.5 point over/under) from the Steelers side, suggesting limited upside for Pittsburgh's offense.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeRole45:18

Matt Harmon mentions he is 'still hiding Devontae Smith' in the Eagles offense, suggesting caution with the receiver despite the team's three-receiver heavy scheme.

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Drake Maye

NegativeBust37:45

Matt Harmon dropped Drake May in redraft fantasy this week and doesn't expect to regret it. The Eagles' offensive scheme is archaic and slow, with poor route concepts and receiver placement (Kyle Williams should be the Z receiver, not Pop Douglas). May is the youngest starting QB in the NFL trying to do too much in a bad situation, making mistakes and compounding the offense's structural issues.

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Grant Calcaterra

NegativeRole46:36

Calcaterra is described as 'nothing right now' and characterized as a two-year project; he is not expected to contribute meaningfully to the Eagles' offense in the near term.

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Harold Fannin

PositiveMatchup59:00

Harold Fannin is mostly a likely fantasy starter; the Steelers allow the fewest tight end attempts and yards allowed with only one successful play on tight ends this year, making them the best matchup in the week so far.

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Hunter Henry

NegativeProjection39:40

Hunter Henry is taking a noticeable step back in 2024. His average speed has declined from 10.55 mph in 2023 to 10.3 mph in 2024; his average route speed dropped from 12.2 mph in 2024 to 11.3 mph in 2024—nearly a full mile per hour decline. This isn't just eye test; next-gen stats confirm he's losing separation on all routes, not just at catch point. Matt Harmon describes him as the Eagles' 'steady Eddie' but notes the decline is tangible and measurable.

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Jalen Hurts

PositiveMatchup29:24

Matt Harmon emphasizes that Week 4 against the Cowboys is the week to get Jalen Hurts going, as the Cowboys are the worst team against the slot. If Hurts doesn't have a big week against Dallas, Harmon questions what the Eagles offense is doing.

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NegativeProjection44:36

Matt Harmon discusses Jalen Hurts' ecosystem with the Eagles, noting the offense remains unchanged from the offseason: dead last in play action, no motion usage, and three-receiver heavy due to injuries. Harmon also highlights Hurts' tendency to predetermine throws, including a pick at the end of Monday night's game, suggesting quarterbacks need to be more willing to take short hitch and stop routes on the outside.

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NegativeProjection47:48

Matt Harmon expects the Eagles offense to be a 'high wire act' dependent on Hurts' individual performance; the system is not designed to be stable or predictable, making it difficult to project consistent fantasy output.

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NegativeRole58:45

Mentioned in context of tight end targets and Steelers' defense; Steelers have Jalen Ramsey in the slot which helps them defend tight ends effectively.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveMatchup35:46

Start confidently in Week 4 vs. Carolina; Panthers have both starting corners on IR for extended absence, creating massive shootout potential. Lions-Panthers game tied for highest projected point total (51.5) with Lions at 27 implied points. Weather may dampen slightly, but boom week setup is ideal for Williams despite season-long bust concerns due to Sam LaPorte's health and offensive depth.

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PositiveMatchup77:20

Facing a massive shootout with tied-for-highest projected point total on the week (51.5); Lions implied total is 27. Matt Harmon ranked Williams as WR25 preseason but expects him to finish WR5 while never being ranked WR25 during the season, oscillating between WR40-WR40. This is the boom week to chase ceiling in late primetime game.

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Jayden Reed

NegativeInjury0:07

Jaden Reed is officially out for the season with a neck injury. This is the second consecutive season that Reed has suffered a lost year due to injury, which is particularly damaging to the Packers' receiver room depth. Reed's absence forces the team to start Sky Moore in the slot for the remainder of the season, a significant downgrade in receiver quality.

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Johnny Mundt

NegativeRole46:25

Mundt is described as 'fine' in the Eagles' tight end rotation, suggesting he is a depth option without significant fantasy upside in the current offensive system.

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Jordan Love

NegativeProjection0:07

Nate Tice assesses Jordan Love as a locked-in Tier 2 quarterback with elite decision-making and sack avoidance, but the Packers' ecosystem is failing him catastrophically. Through three weeks, Love is the most-hit quarterback in NFL history since 2013 (including hits and sacks); the offensive line has deteriorated with signings like Mekhi Becton off the street and Laken Tomlinson (not good for three or four years) brought in because he 'knows the system.' The run game is porous—EPA per rush has collapsed from neutral (-0.03 last year) to -0.38 this year, meaning every carry loses 0.4 points. Third-down distances have ballooned from 6.4 yards to 8.1 yards (28th in league), forcing Love into third-and-long situations where teams play cloud coverage at 35% (up from 21% last year, 15% two years ago). The offense is 30th in efficiency, 29th in percentage of drives ending in a score. Tice worries the situation could worsen before improving unless Tomlinson, Zeitler, and Becton quickly elevate from 'crap to not crap.' Love will still hunt big plays and rack up volume stats, but down-to-down efficiency will be dire, with games spiraling like the Vikings matchup.

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PositiveProjection18:46

Matt Harmon views Love as a locked-in Tier 2 quarterback with top-eight upside; he wants to climb higher with him. Harmon notes Love does a lot of the right things but will be boom-bust based on weekly matchups. The Packers' upcoming schedule (vs. Todd Bowles' Buccaneers, Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Panthers, Patriots) should be favorable, and Harmon suggests the Packers might become a team where you don't watch and just let fantasy points rack up, especially in fourth-quarter situations.

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NegativeRole19:19

Matt Harmon's critique of Jordan Love is that he is a big play hunter who sometimes struggles to take layups and matriculate the offense down the field. Love's receivers, Golden and Watson, are both big play shooters and downfield guys rather than layup targets, which compounds this tendency. Tucker Craft needs to get healthy to provide a short-range option, though Harmon questions whether Love would actually use him for checkdowns.

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Josh Jacobs

NegativeProjection0:15

Josh Jacobs' potential return from injury will not salvage the Packers' run game. Nate Tice states, 'I don't think Josh Jacobs is saving this run game,' emphasizing that the offensive line collapse and scheme issues are too severe for any single running back to overcome. The run game's EPA per rush of -0.38 is a systemic problem, not a personnel issue that Jacobs can fix.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection38:11

Matt Harmon characterizes Herbert as a "Herbert realist" rather than defender, noting his highs are legitimate but he plays too robotic and on-script, making poor decisions at critical moments. His interception in the end zone against the Bills on a C.J. Gardiner-Johnson deep safety in cover three is cited as egregious—a high school-level mistake throwing into a post route that was clearly disguised static cover three with no movement from the defender. Harmon emphasizes this is not a scheme problem but a quarterback execution issue; Herbert has had enough starts to know better than to throw into that coverage.

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NegativeProjection43:02

Herbert's performance is concerning despite the Chargers' run game showing 10th-ranked success rate; Matt Harmon suggests Herbert needs to 'chill out or do something, go to meditation' and notes the Seahawks matchup this week is not favorable for getting right.

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Kyle Williams

NegativeRole38:08

Kyle Williams is misaligned in the Eagles' offense. His best production comes on over routes when in motion (like his best game against the Bucs last year), but he can't win vertically. Matt Harmon argues Williams should be the Z receiver, not the slot, and should be used over Pop Douglas given his skill set and the scheme's limitations.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveRole44:10

Matt Harmon notes that Ladd McConkey is playing well, though he emphasizes that most Chargers receivers require proof before trusting them given the team's offensive inconsistency.

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Makai Lemon

NegativeUsage44:45

Matt Harmon criticizes the Eagles' screen pass execution, noting Zach Hurts (a 35-year-old backup who tore his ACL in December) got 'his butt kicked' on a screen to Makai Lemon, one of 'a hundred failed screens to Makai Lemon,' illustrating the team's offensive struggles.

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MarShawn Lloyd

NegativeProjection0:15

Marshawn Lloyd looks like a player who has suffered through numerous injuries and lacks confidence and momentum as a rusher. Nate Tice notes that drafting Lloyd seemed like a good idea three weeks ago until seeing him play football. Lloyd's career has likely gone asunder at this point. He is not expected to salvage the Packers' run game, which is averaging -0.38 EPA per rush. Lloyd's hard-right-turn running style (similar to DeAndre Swift's issues) compounds the offensive line's inability to create running lanes.

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Matthew Golden

NegativeProjection0:10

Matthew Golden is having some ups and downs but is coming along in the Packers' offense. Despite the offensive dysfunction, Golden will accumulate volume stats due to high pass attempts and Jordan Love's continued big-play hunting. However, the offense's poor efficiency (30th in offensive efficiency, 29th in drive-scoring percentage) means down-to-down production will be inconsistent. Golden's role is more circumstantial to the offense's struggles than a reflection of his talent.

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Mike Williams

NegativeRole43:52

Matt Harmon criticizes Herbert's decision-making, noting he threw to MVS (wearing number 13) on a play where other receivers were open, sarcastically suggesting Herbert may have mistaken MVS for Keenan Allen.

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Nico Collins

PositiveMatchup28:04

Matt Harmon identifies a big week from Nico Collins in Week 4 against the Dallas Cowboys as critical for the Texans offense; Collins is expected to play this week. The Texans are desperately in need of a strong performance from their receivers.

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PositiveRole36:03

Matt Harmon identifies Nico Collins as the Texans' alpha and true ace receiver; his return is expected to improve the passing game after the team's outside receiver group without him has been among the worst Harmon has seen, featuring mostly unknown names beyond Xavier Hutchinson and Kayshawn Booty.

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Pat Freiermuth

PositiveMatchup60:42

Pat Freiermuth has strong prop value against the Browns, who have allowed eight catches on 11 targets for 108 yards to tight ends with a 72.7% success rate; anytime touchdown is +390, first touchdown is +1400. The Steelers-Browns matchup is a tight end and running back game in a good way.

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Quentin Johnston

NegativeRole43:25

Matt Harmon is ready to see less of Quentin Johnston in the Chargers offense, preferring more snaps for Trey Harris instead.

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Roman Wilson

NegativeRole56:07

Made a mistake and was benched, with Jeremy Bernard tossed back in; suggests the Packers will continue a will-they-won't-they approach with the receiver room all season long under Aaron Rodgers.

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Skyy Moore

PositiveRole0:11

Sky Moore will start in the slot for the Packers for the rest of the season following Jaden Reed's season-ending neck injury. Matt Harmon expresses skepticism about Moore's fantasy value, noting that '2022 Matt Harmon thinks that's interesting. 2026 Matt Harmon does not think that's very interesting.' Moore was targeted on 27% of his routes against the Falcons on Thursday night, and that target rate is expected to continue. Moore is a significant downgrade from Reed and does not elevate the receiver room situation.

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Tre Harris

PositiveRole43:38

Matt Harmon wants to see more of Trey Harris and less of Quentin Johnston; Harris looked good especially on out routes, and Harmon believes Herbert could have targeted Harris on a play where he threw to MVS instead.

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Tua Tagovailoa

NegativeProjection41:39

Matt Harmon notes that while Tua is widely acknowledged as a limited quarterback, Mike McDaniel's offense has been terrible both when Tua was unavailable in Miami and in L.A. with the Chargers, raising questions about whether Tua is the limiting factor or if the ecosystem/scheme is failing. This creates ambiguity about the sliding scale of responsibility between quarterback and system.

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Tucker Kraft

NegativeRole0:10

Tucker Kraft is a weird case in the Packers' offense, but Nate Tice attributes his situation more to the overall offensive circumstances than to his individual talent or role. The tight end's production is being suppressed by the team's systemic offensive dysfunction rather than a lack of opportunity or ability.

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Wan'Dale Robinson

NegativeRole38:35

Wandale Robinson (5'9" with 29-inch arms) is being asked to run routes he can't execute effectively in the Cardinals' offense. Cam Ward threw to him on a play where the throw was catchable but Robinson's height and arm length prevented him from winning on the route, illustrating the mismatch between receiver size and route concepts.

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Woody Marks

NegativeRole25:45

Marks is viewed as a decent bench hold in fantasy despite the Texans' offensive struggles. The speaker suggests the team may try something different in the backfield, but Marks is not expected to dramatically improve the situation.

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Zay Flowers

PositiveUsage30:24

Matt Harmon notes that the Ravens have been repeatedly putting Zay Flowers at the three spot (slot), indicating a strategic focus on targeting him in that position.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

1,198
0:00Big show for you here today, and I mean it, it is a massive show because we, as usual, have Nate Tice
0:06here for a big-time breakdown on quarterbacks who are failing their ecosystems, or are they being failed by their ecosystems?
0:12We talk Patriots and Drake May, we talk CJ Stroud and the Texans, Jordan Love and the Sinking Packers, then we preview
0:18Thursday Night Football Steelers-Browns, some key fantasy takeaways in that one.
0:21And then, new weekly segment, Justin Boone joins the show for the Flex Fit Check.
0:25We talk a ton of guys who have been disappointing but might rebound this week, keyword being might.
0:30All that and more coming up on today's show.
0:33Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:36Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, and it is a hell of a day to talk ball.
0:40We got a big, big show for you here today, and joining me for the first part of this show is our guy, Nate Tice.
0:47Nate, what's going on, man? Not too much. I had a nice little old man moment last night.
0:52It was a young man, old man, me trying to be a young man.
0:56I was like, I'm going to play a video game.
0:59I'm going to buy a new video game. And I was so excited.
1:03Video game's not even out yet. I had myself all situated, got my water filled up, got all situated.
1:08Xbox here on the desk, like music going. I'm like, I'm going to enjoy myself for two hours while the kids are asleep.
1:14Video game's not out until Thursday. Okay. So, yeah, that's not a nice moment there.
1:19But yep, reminded me of my age, but I'm doing great.
1:22Great to see you, Matt. Well, you know what?
1:24At least you intended to take some time away from work that you're doing better than me.
1:29You're doing better than what I ended up doing.
1:31I ended up watching the film. I ended up watching the Chiefs dolphins.
1:35I was like, I'm in my office anyways. Might as well watch some Chiefs dolphins.
1:39So yeah, that's what I did. I wish I was making that up.
1:43Oh, no, I totally was not a brag. I was that's a sick.
1:46No, I was at this desk charting games until 11 p.m.
1:50by accident last night, which, you know, is not what I wanted to be doing.
1:54I wanted to be in bed by then. But you know what?
1:57That is because we are dedicated to the game of football.
2:00We love the game. We love you people. And we are here to give you some good information because we've been grinding all this tape.
2:07OK, so today with Nate in the first part of the show, we are going to do some of our usual things here on the Wednesday show.
2:15We're going to talk quarterbacks being failed by their ecosystems or are they failing their ecosystems?
2:19Yeah, we're talking struggling quarterbacks here to start. Then we're going to get into our Thursday Night Football preview Steelers at Browns.
2:25Speaking of questionable quarterback play, and then we're going to say goodbye to Nate because Justin Boone is going to join me for the first flex fit check.
2:33Yes, I will miss you, Nate. But the good news is I no longer have to ask you, like, would you start Tony Pollard in fantasy football?
2:41And I know Boone will come in throwing 105 miles an hour just to close that close it out strong.
2:46So I'm not too worried. Boone's the best. Yeah, Boone is the best.
2:50And you no longer have to shovel that garbage.
2:52We'll let Boone do that because he's going to have a real strong take on whether you should start this goofball or that goofball in fantasy.
3:00But speaking of goofballs and speaking of things not going so well, let's get into our main topic of the show today.
3:06I wanted to talk to you, Nate, because number one, I value your quarterback opinion perhaps higher than anybody else about these
3:12quarterbacks who are maybe failed by their ecosystems or are their ecosystems failing them.
3:16But one of the reasons I wanted to ask you about this, Nate, because I think you're pretty measured on this stuff.
3:22And quarterback discourse is so poisonous. It's so toxic.
3:24And I know you hate it. We can all see the hate on your face right now if you're watching with us
3:30here on YouTube, even just thinking about whatever tweet you saw two hours ago that really bothered you about a quarterback.
3:36I'm sure you got maybe a few in the chamber here, but I wanted to have this conversation actually because we'll go
3:42through the specifics and everything and try to figure this out and how we can get some better fantasy play out of these offenses for sure.
3:50But it has been kicking around in the back of my head, Nate, that if we even have to ask the question, is the ecosystem failing these guys?
3:57Do we pay quarterbacks too much money? This is a strange way to frame the question because my initial thought is like,
4:04no, when you pay the quarterback, it's worth it because great quarterbacks are really hard to find and great quarterbacks are the most valuable thing in sports.
4:11But if we're going to sit here and say like, well, yeah, insert quarterback here is really, really good.
4:16And the environment is just failing them like they need the environment to cooperate.
4:20Are we actually overvaluing quarterbacks or am I galaxy braining this here in week four of the NFL season?
4:26I don't think we're overpaying, but I think we're overpaying some, especially one in Tampa Bay and one that was in Miami.
4:32You know, there's some that I did think that's like, but there's the wilderness.
4:36It's a denominator thing. There's just not many guys that can generally operate an NFL offense for 16, 17 weeks.
4:41You know, that that's just what it is, that it's a supply and demand.
4:45So if we're not going to pay him, somebody will, you know, somebody will probably pay him or pay him that amount
4:51that they are seeking because we just, we got to find some competence.
4:55I know case Keenum is in the news right now.
4:58Remember the Vikings, they were doing everything possible to bring Kirk cousins and giving them three years guaranteed deal back in the
5:04day to move on from case Keenum. Like competence is only so much and you need guys that can somewhat move the needle.
5:10And I know we're obsessed with who's the lead.
5:13I mean, this goes back years and years. Who's the lead who's tier two and everything.
5:17If you are what I call tier two or even just a high end tier three, that is worth paying at least
5:23market value because, and I know some of these guys are going to get paid more than market value.
5:29Some of it too is just next man up.
5:31And that's just some of these guys are represented by the same agent.
5:35Like there's a lot of other variables that go into this and also you just, I'm just the NFL look at college right now.
5:41Like just right now, how much those guys are getting paid?
5:45Because if we don't pay him, they can just transfer and pay someone else.
5:48And also they're making them. I mean, watch Oklahoma right now.
5:51John may tear. They won't bench him because this whole off season, they've told everyone he's the face of the program.
5:57He's the face of the program. And now he is just truly nuking every one of their games.
6:02And now it's like, well, shoot, they've kind of created their own mess.
6:06And you see that with other quarterbacks as well.
6:08So I get where the question's coming from. And the answer is yes, there are some, but generally I do not think
6:15so because I just think the denominator is so small of how many guys on the planet Earth can play this position.
6:21Yeah, I'm kind of being devil's advocate here as I'm asking this question because I think I generally agree with you that
6:27quarterbacks obviously most important position in sports. If you're not going to pay him, someone else is going to pay him.
6:33And a lot of these times, and I think this can be a tough question when you say it's like, well, okay, you have this guy.
6:40You're going to do any better than him? And sometimes the answer is, well, so I'm just interested in something different.
6:46Maybe only one way to find out. But most coaches don't want to find out.
6:50Most coaches are cowards. And that is what it is.
6:53And cowards for good reason because the wilderness is very scary.
6:56But let's get into some of these specifics. And the first one, Jordan Love.
7:00Is Jordan Love being failed by the ecosystem or is he failing the ecosystem?
7:04I think this is a definitive answer that this is a brutal, brutal environment.
7:08Like look at this depth chart that we're showing here right now.
7:11Just to give some of the updates on the Packers since last time we've spoken on this podcast, Jaden Reed is now on IR.
7:18He is officially out for the season. Really, I mean, a neck injury is so scary and so serious.
7:23I'm not surprised that he's out for the season.
7:25The offensive line has deteriorated to this point that they're signing Mekhi Becton off the street.
7:30We'll see how that works. So, Nate, I think we know the answer to this question.
7:34But what are your thoughts on whether Jordan Love is failing the Packers or are the Packers failing Jordan Love?
7:40Right now, the Packers are failing Jordan Love. It's not like it's been like this always.
7:44I think they had some pretty good circumstances the last couple of years.
7:48But right now, this is just the given of it.
7:51This is just the situation. The O-line wasn't high to begin with.
7:54Like I don't think anyone was. The scheme was going to help it out.
7:58But now it just has all fallen apart. And like right now, they're just hanging on by a thread.
8:03When they're bringing in like 15 guys to try and find five starters, they essentially had like 15 guys in the building
8:09at one point with workouts, practice squad. Like just that.
8:12So many bodies. And they're just trying to find warm bodies.
8:15Laken Tomlinson is kind of one of those harbingers of doom.
8:18If he's on your offensive line, you kind of know what you're getting now.
8:22That's kind of like not a good thing at this point in time.
8:26And the stats bear this out. Right now, Jordan Love is an aggressive quarterback.
8:30He also does not take sacks. Like that is something that's so cool about his play.
8:34He throws stuff away. He's big, strong. He's also very smart.
8:37Knows when to get rid of the ball and when to be aggressive.
8:41Through three weeks. I looked this up since 2013 because that's when True Media's data kind of sets.
8:46You know, it's kind of more reliable. He is the most hit quarterback in NFL history through three weeks since 2013.
8:52Period. The most hit guy. Like if you include hits and sacks, he is the most hit guy.
8:57If you look at rate stats, it's like 10th or 11th.
9:00But still one of the most hit guys. And on top of it, it's not like they have a run game.
9:06They're like, hey, they just got passed fewer times and just run the ball a little bit.
9:10They can't do that. I mean, even when the run's working, Marshawn Lloyd is taking a hard right turn as opposed to just.
9:17It's like the worst case, DeAndre Swift. It was just hard right turns and running himself into contact with see if Caleb Johnson gets going.
9:24But again, that run game, even with guys like Zeitler, who's smart and has just been a longtime vet.
9:29He didn't look great in Tennessee last year. Tomlinson, again, hasn't been kind of good for three or four years.
9:35They truly bought Tomlinson in because he quote unquote knows the system.
9:38But it's, you know, Zeitler is maybe going to be.
9:41Zeitler is going to be better than what they've been trotting out there.
9:44And it might be going to my crap to not crap theory.
9:48But it's not exactly where I don't think is even he's like maybe average.
9:52I'm not even going to say a good starter, but it might be better.
9:56But again, that bears out with the stats is that their run game is porous right now.
10:00On top of it, Jane Reed, who gets some of those handoffs, too.
10:04Now he's out. That was something that alleviates some of the run game.
10:08And now the passing game, Jordan Love is taking some huge shots.
10:11And I don't mean shot plays. I'm talking about just getting decleted.
10:14Like it looks like a varsity blues highlight reel.
10:17But really, it's just it's pretty rough right now.
10:19The circumstances are pretty rough. And that's with Christian Watson playing great.
10:23I think Golden kind of having some up and downs, but coming along to what Golden said now is kind of building up.
10:29Tucker Craft is kind of a weird case right now, but I think that's more circumstances of the offense than anything.
10:35So, yeah, it's a really, really rough front right now.
10:38Probably the worst in the league right now. Yeah, they're paying for the sins of kind of relenting to the, hey, let's
10:44cut the receiver room down to three guys. You know what I'm saying?
10:47And I say this as someone that hated the receiver rotation for a long time.
10:52It's like, we'd be really nice if you just had three guys.
10:55The problem is two of the three guys have just had a ton of injuries.
10:59Christian Watson, of course, we know his injury history.
11:02But, yeah, Jaden Reed has now – this is two seasons in a row that are just pretty much lost years due to injuries, which just sucks.
11:09I mean, there's nothing you can do about that.
11:12But, you know, now you're starting Sky Moore in the slot for the rest of the season.
11:16And, like, 2022 Matt Harmon thinks that's interesting. 2026 Matt Harmon does not think that's very interesting.
11:21And Sky Moore was targeted on, like, 27% of his routes against the Falcons on Thursday night.
11:26And that's going to be the rest of the way.
11:29There's no Dontavian Wicks to kind of come in here and be like, all right, well, we got someone to sort of elevate this situation.
11:36It's a really rough receiver room. And the receiver room is not even close to the biggest problem here.
11:41You really felt, Nate, on Thursday night, the difference – what it makes for a quarterback.
11:45People make fun of the run game and, oh, you know, rushing is less efficient than passing.
11:50It doesn't really move – whatever. All that kind of 2015-2016 Twitter talk.
11:54But you really felt the difference between having a great run game for a quarterback and not having one on Thursday night.
12:00The fact that – I don't really know how we quantify this, but a quarterback feeling comfortable because of the down and
12:06distances that they're in is just so, so, so valuable.
12:09And Penix is consistently in positive down and distance situations ahead of the sticks.
12:13And the Packers are just never that way. You know, when you're constantly in second and ten, third and eight, I mean,
12:19yeah, teams are going to pin their ears back, rushing the passer, and they can do it against this offensive line right now.
12:25Yeah, they're averaging 8.1 yards to go on third down right now.
12:29The only ones – that's 28th in the league.
12:31And the only ones worse are the Eagles, which, you know, we can talk about with their early downs, which we will.
12:37Dolphins, which is like no one expected them to be great this year.
12:41The Bucs, which is some of that's penalties, some of that's Baker putting them in bad situations because I actually think the run game's been decent.
12:48And then the Ravens are a weird one, but the Ravens – that's actually been penalties more than anything.
12:53And actually, you know, they've been able to run the ball and then pass the ball in early downs as well.
12:59So they're actually dead last, but they don't have a ton of third downs.
13:03Like they only have 12 third and long attempts, which is third and seven yards plus.
13:08Wow, the Packers have 21 through three weeks. So that, you know, so it's just that they haven't been in third down
13:14a lot, but when they are, it's long as opposed to the Packers who are in third down a lot.
13:19And on top of it, it's third and long.
13:22Like the Packers last year – and this can juice up some of like Love's EPA numbers, which, you know, I know
13:28he's always going to be high up there. I should say just Love, I should say their offense.
13:33They were fine getting in third down last year because they were getting third and two, third and three over and over.
13:39Watch the Browns game that I believe they played last year.
13:42Panthers, I think, were another one. They kind of did so many third, two, third, and threes, and they were fine with it.
13:49They could do a little jab run game or they can kind of bait you and then Jordan Love would do a shot play.
13:55They're kind of their offensive flow. While this year, it's more these are the third and long.
14:00So it's not what they want. This is not the offensive flow.
14:03The flow is bad right now. So it's – and upon rewatch, there's not a lot of silver linings where I'm like,
14:10hey, it's going to get better this way. Actually, it's more like they're putting Band-Aids over bullet holes right now.
14:15Yeah. I mentioned my offensive efficiency score. They're 30th in that.
14:18The Packers. The Packers are 30th because – and they're going to put up a lot.
14:23And this is where it's difficult to parse this from reality and fantasy because the fact that they have so many drives
14:29and pass attempts and they are still playing with a lot of pace, you're going to get numbers for Matthew Golden.
14:35You're going to get numbers for Christian Watson. Yeah.
14:37But they're 29th in percentage of drives that end in a score right now.
14:4129th. The Green Bay Packers. They're 29th. And I wonder, Nate, if it actually could end up getting worse for some of these guys in fantasy.
14:48Like, it's week four and we're talking about this offensive line is a mass unit that's not getting better.
14:54I don't even think if Josh Jacobs comes back, and that's obviously a big if, I don't think he's saving this run game.
15:00To me, it's just – Marshawn Lloyd's not good.
15:03I mean, we showed the tweet from Ian Hart.
15:05It's not long ago where it's like, Marshawn Lloyd seemed like – drafting him seemed like a good idea three weeks ago.
15:11Yeah, it seemed like a good idea drafting him until we saw him play football.
15:15That was obviously – Exactly. I don't mean to be mean, but he just looks like a guy that's had a lot
15:21of injuries and hasn't had a lot of time to gain confidence and momentum.
15:25As a rusher, it just is what it is.
15:28Unfortunately, again, suffered through a lot of injuries. Career has probably gone asunder now at this point.
15:33I don't think Josh Jacobs is saving this run game.
15:35And if they lose a guy like Christian Watson and some of the injury analysts on Twitter were seeing him maybe kind
15:42of pull up at the end of that Falcons game on a route.
15:45I don't know if he's on the injury report or anything, like if he's going to miss games.
15:50But, man, if he goes down, this is a really tough situation to look at.
15:54But, I mean, it's every stat. Like, I mean, I've even pulled up just like their stats for over the last three years.
16:01Three downs in pot or three plays in pot, their rate this year is almost 30%.
16:05It's 29 and change. Last year it was 16%.
16:08They're just like every stat you look at. Average time to throw, which Jordan Love is a master at.
16:13Again, waiting, maximizing that as much time as he can get, drifting.
16:16Average time to throw is 2.91 seconds last year.
16:19It's 2.5 this year. And they have the same – I already mentioned this.
16:23They have the same kind of third down play percentage.
16:26But, again, that distance has gone up dramatically. It went from 6.4 yards last year to 8.1.
16:30So, again, it's just all these situations are so much harder.
16:33They're converting third downs at 27.8%. So, that's a tough way to live.
16:37If, like, it works for them before when they're getting third and shorts and they have a run game to rely on.
16:43Now, you want Jordan Love hunting, big plays. That's what makes Jordan Love great.
16:47You avoid sacks and he hunts big plays. If he doesn't have the time to hump big plays, it's really, really tough.
16:53They play the Bucs this week, which I think is going to be an ultimate gash or be gash like the Vikings
16:59game was, which I think will be – I'm calling it a loser leaves town match.
17:04But that's what it just kind of feels like.
17:06Like, teams right now, too, this is another little stat.
17:09Teams right now are playing cloud. When teams are not scared of your run game.
17:13Right now, they're getting cloud at almost 35%. Last year, it was 21%.
17:17The year before that, it was 15%. So, teams are just going, hey, we're not going to let you get big plays because you can't run for crap.
17:25And we don't care. We're going to just let you do this.
17:28Like, we do not care what you do. It reminds me a lot of KOC's first year in Minnesota.
17:33Of course, he had Justin Jefferson, and they got a lot of cover, too.
17:37They just could not run the ball at all because the O-line was porous and Dalvin Cook was on the decline.
17:43That's what it really feels like right now. So, like you mentioned, they're going quicker, which is going to rack up some counting stats.
17:50Christian Watson and or Golden will always have a big play because love will keep hunting them.
17:55But it's just the down-to-down efficiency is going to be dire.
17:58So, it can be games like the Vikings game where it's like there are some highs early, but how quickly that spiraled
18:04in the second half and in the fourth quarter, that's what a lot of these games are going to feel like.
18:10Or less that. I could throw a million stats.
18:12They're all just in decline. Again, EPA per rush.
18:15Again, success rate is usually what I look at, especially in the run game.
18:18EPA per rush, though. Two years ago, it was neutral.
18:21Zero. Last year, it's negative .03, which is essentially neutral.
18:24This year, it's negative .38. Every time they run the ball, it's worth negative .4 points.
18:29Every time they run the ball. And that's such a big part of their offense.
18:33It's a jab-jab haymaker offense. They have no jab.
18:35So, it's haymakers and then just taking shots to the chin.
18:38So, it's a tough, tough way to live. So, yeah, I think it's the ecosystem.
18:42Again, I know general fans think Jordan Love still has stuff to prove.
18:46He does not to me. This guy is a locked-in top-eight quarterback.
18:49That's how I view him. If anything, I want to climb higher with him.
18:53But it's not really – I'm not making that argument right now because I know how this year is going to go.
18:59But he is one of the dudes. He is a locked-in Tier 2 guy.
19:03He does a lot of the right things. It's just – it's going to be really high and low just based on who their matchups are every week.
19:11Unless these guys like Tomlinson and Zeitler and Becton can come in here and save – your point, awful to average, right?
19:17Crap to not crap. That's the hope here. Unless that happens and it happens quickly, I really do worry if this is
19:23going to get worse before it gets better. Because I'm with you.
19:27I'm generally a big Jordan Love fan. But I don't say if you're going to give one real critique to him is
19:33that he is such a big play hunter that sometimes I think maybe take the layups and matriculate the offense down the field.
19:39And he does struggle with that part of it.
19:42And you mentioned that. Teams are going to run a ton of cloud.
19:45Both of his receivers, Golden and Watson, neither one of them are really layup guys.
19:50They're both big play shooters as well. Downfield guys.
19:52Yep. At this point, Tucker Craft's got to get healthy because he can be a layup guy.
19:57But do I really want him taking the layups to Skymore?
20:00I wonder if Skymore can turn into a sneaky PPR scam at this point.
20:04I think he might. I wonder if – and again, like I said, 27 targets per route last week.
20:09He actually doesn't look terrible either, which is actually – I will say about Skymore.
20:13I'm not the biggest Skymore guy, but he actually is doing decent things.
20:17And this is the other thing. This week is going to be hilarious because it's Todd Bowles.
20:22So, it's going to be the funniest game ever.
20:24I really do think so. Then they got the Bears, who I know what they played Monday night, but that defense still isn't great.
20:31You should, in theory, be able to run on them.
20:34But again, that's going to be a stoppable force versus a movable object.
20:37But Dennis Allen will bring heat, so it's more gash or be gash.
20:41Then they got the Cowboys, who actually – the Cowboys' run defense is a little bit better.
20:46But you can throw on them. And then they got the Lions, who are allowing the highest success rate against outside receivers in the entire NFL.
20:53Then they got the beat-up Panthers. And then they got the Patriots, whose defense actually is playing pretty well right now.
20:59They got other issues. So, it's actually a – should be a good stretch of the schedule right now.
21:04But I'm still like, we'll see. You know, we'll see.
21:07I feel like it's going to be very boom-bust, even against some of these kind of softer defenses.
21:12I never thought I'd say this, but the Packers might turn into one of those teams that you don't watch, and you
21:18just let the fantasy points rack up, especially with that schedule.
21:21Because, yeah, it might be a fourth quarter sort of situation.
21:24So, yeah, I think we're pretty on the same page here that love failed by the ecosystem less so than the alternative.
21:30Okay, let's get to our next quarterback here, CJ Stroud.
21:33Talk about a guy, Nate, who has just – I mean, another guy that's like very polarizing on the internet.
21:39Another guy that is, I think, pretty clearly been let down by his environment.
21:43I'm not going to say he's totally blameless all throughout the entirety of his career.
21:47But right now, these last two weeks, without Nico Collins, what do you want this team to do?
21:52I was encouraged in week one with the Texans rushing success rate.
21:55They now are 32nd in stuff rate on their running back runs.
21:5828.8% of their runs go for zero or negative yardage.
22:01And that is last in the league by a decent bit.
22:04The Colts are actually 24%. Jets, 23%. The Texans are 29%.
22:07Nearly 30% of their runs go nowhere. And that ain't getting better.
22:11Their two running backs are who they are. The offensive line for maybe the third year in a row is different, but it's definitely not better.
22:18And the outside receivers without Nico Collins, I can't – it's one of the worst I've ever seen.
22:23It's not good. It's names I'm like, who is that guy again?
22:26I know Xavier Hutchinson. I know the Kayshawn Booty, but then beyond them and who are getting a lot of reps right now.
22:33Yeah. And I'm like, okay, okay. Where's Jalen Knoll?
22:35Can't you guys dial up some plays to Jalen Knoll?
22:38I'm still wondering why they can't dial up plays to Jalen Knoll.
22:41Jalen Knoll's done nothing. And when I watch – and so one of those things where it's like, all right, I'm going to listen to coaches.
22:49What do you think of them? I'm like – I watch them though and I'm like, this guy's got juice.
22:54He's doing the right thing. What am I missing here?
22:57What am I – I still think it's so bizarre, but I will say.
23:01So I think, of course, Nico Collins is the alpha.
23:04He is the ace. He can be a true ace.
23:06I actually think Straub's been playing decent. Like he – I do – upon rewatch, he's doing a lot of the right things.
23:13He's trying to do a lot of the right things right now.
23:16And even their down-to-down stuff, like I use that suplex rate, they're 12th right now.
23:20They are just a team that – them and actually the team that's kind of like their – part of their tree,
23:26the Patriots, kind of feel the same way to me where it's like down-to-down, it's actually a little bit better than you think.
23:33And then just catastrophic mistakes. It's just failed fourth downs, turnovers in the red zone, failed drives in the red zone, a
23:39missed kicks at the worst time or drop snaps at the worst time.
23:43But Straub's success rate is up this year, like pretty decently so.
23:46He's pushing the ball more, pretty decently so. And actually one of these weird stats that actually I think is indicative of
23:52how Straub's playing compared to maybe other guys that use this, sacked yards – or yards lost per sack.
23:57I always think that was Straub's big issue is when he got sacked.
24:01He got sacked hard. Like he lost a lot of yards.
24:04And so that was him trying to do more.
24:07And this year he's cut it down by over a yard.
24:10So it's one of those things where it's like, wait, that's a weird negative stat.
24:14But I'm talking – really when you watch him, he's getting the ball away pretty quickly and he's stepping up.
24:19And I always think that's the big thing with Straub is that he does the Madden drift when he's not feeling it
24:26and he's trying to do too much. He's stepping up and scrambling a little bit at a rate that I kind of like right now.
24:33So I can't sell fully on the Texans as a whole and especially with Nico Collins coming back.
24:38Even if the run game's shite and even if the defense has just been kind of weird, I still think defense is good.
24:44Like I still see that pass rush turning up.
24:46But just it's not as dominant and like take your breath away as maybe as I anticipated.
24:51But maybe it'll get better because they're kind of feeling it a little bit right now.
24:56You mentioned that they're dead last in success rate or whatever, bottom three in rushing success rate.
25:00It's an improvement over the last two years. Their running backs are at 34%.
25:04Last year it was 30%. The year before that was 31%.
25:07It's actually better than it's been, but it's still like – yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:11It's pretty rough. No, yeah. Their success rate is better than it has been, but their stuff rate is like horrendous.
25:17Just again, they have a ton of runs that go for zero or negative yards.
25:21Yeah, but they'll at least convert some short-yarded stuff.
25:24I wonder how much of that is still from week one when Dave Montgomery punched in a couple of touchdowns, the whole deal there.
25:31I would say, by the way, on Montgomery, he was a great sell high after week one.
25:35If he has one more game where he finds his way into the end zone, I'd ship him off as soon as you can.
25:42Same. I just don't think he fits with what this situation is right now.
25:46I don't know that Woody Marks is going to make it any better, but it's one of those we got to try something else type of situations.
25:53So, Marks is still a decent bench hold in fantasy.
25:56But, yeah, it's really rough right now. Good point, though, on Stroud.
26:00And I think he definitely has been – he's been solid so far, and he's kind of taken what's there.
26:05There's just not a lot there. I mean, these dudes on the boundary can't get open.
26:10To your point about Jalen Knoll, he must be, I don't know, like smoking cigs in meetings or something like that.
26:15That's the – it's either that or the Texans are stupid.
26:18Like, I'm sorry to be that reductive about it, but when I watch Knoll, he makes plays.
26:23He was – I think he got open as a rookie.
26:26I know you've clipped some of this stuff, too, like especially on these big post routes where they need explosive plays.
26:32Yes. It's just one of the more – I don't get it.
26:35And I've even asked, like, Dane Brueger, like because I was curious.
26:39I was like, is there character stuff? I don't know.
26:42He's like, no, everyone loved him. He's like, what am I missing?
26:45Like, it's – and he's willing to block? Like, it's a bizarre thing.
26:49They would rather dial up plays for other guys than him.
26:52And like – It's so weird. I have to be – I know.
26:55I just don't get it. Like, not that they're making a lot of good decisions down there anyways.
27:00You know, again, the run game stuff is so weird.
27:03And that's actually to talk about your David Montgomery point.
27:06Like, not to extrapolate from one play, but their failed fourth down this past week, the failed fourth and one, was, I thought, a bad read by Montgomery.
27:14It wasn't great blocking. Again, this team should not be running zone.
27:17But he bounced down the outside when he should have planted his foot and just stuck his nose in there.
27:23And that was one of those where it's like, David, like, come on.
27:26You know, he's supposed to be the smart runner.
27:29Like, I was – he was kind of teach tape running back.
27:32And when he's missing holes, it's like, what are you guys getting taught down?
27:36Like, what's going on with you? It's like, it's a black hole.
27:39It's a spiral on offense down there. So, again, in the NFL, when coaches feel heat and they – maybe it's kind of push comes to shove.
27:47All right, maybe we'll see something this week. I thought last week would be the get-right game, but it wasn't the get-right game at all.
27:54So, maybe, like, they feel that heat going on the three.
27:57You'd hope so. I mean, yeah. I don't know.
27:59Again, I know I've always been kind of a Stroud kind of optimist and a believer.
28:04I'm not – I've kind of settled on him and kind of that quarterback 12 to 16 range.
28:09It's all arbitrary. But I feel kind of, like, still good about that and how he's playing this year.
28:14That's exactly – I feel that's exactly how he's played this year, that 12 to 16 range.
28:19And actually, the stats bear that out. Yeah, we essentially just need to see, like, a big week from Nico Collins in
28:25week four against the Dallas Cowboys, which sounds like he's going to play this week.
28:29It's – they're desperately in need of it. And just last point on the defense, Nate, before we move on, and this
28:35is a problem for Dave Montgomery in fantasy too, because part of the theory of the case for Montgomery was, well, they're
28:41going to be in all these, you know, positive game scripts because they're going to be ahead.
28:46Like, he's going to be nursing leads because of the defense.
28:49I really think right now, and I've said this on the show a couple times this week, in today's NFL, you can be great on the defensive line.
28:57Obviously, we all want to be great on the defensive line.
29:00Cornerbacks, which is – I mean, Texans, check, check, check, check, check.
29:03But if you have bad linebackers and safeties, teams can pick on you, and it doesn't really matter how good you are.
29:10And Aziz Alshier is week-to-week with a groin injury.
29:12Dave – Reed Blankenship has been a disappointment at safety.
29:15Henry Toa Toa is it – he's missed some time.
29:18I'm like – I think they're definitely a good defense, but I don't know that they're going to be one of the
29:24best defenses right now because of that weakness specifically.
29:26You know who's the worst team against the slot?
29:29It's the Cowboys. If they don't get Jalen Hurts this week, I got to start going like, all right, what the hell are you guys doing?
29:36Because it's like this is the week to get young juice going.
29:39Like, they are the worst defense against the Cowboys.
29:42I have Cowboys defensive theories, by the way. They are actually pretty good out of base when they're in four DBs.
29:48So, again, if I had gotten on this Texan staff when I had all the receiver injuries kind of going, why are
29:54you running a bunch of 11 personnel with all these receiver injuries?
29:57Well, you know, shouldn't you be going with a bunch of tight ends?
30:01Because they actually have a decent crop of tight ends.
30:04I know. No one is a star, but decent, like decent.
30:07And they didn't. But then actually this week, they should be going 11 personnel.
30:11Like, it's kind of one of those like, yeah, I got on you, but not this week.
30:15Actually, you should keep the Cowboys in sub. And I've had some kind of Cowboys defensive theories and stuff.
30:21Because when they're in base, Caleb Downs is their deep safety.
30:24When they're in sub, he's their slot. And their safeties suck.
30:27And now they have a bunch of injuries at safety.
30:30But Downs at safety is pretty good. And actually, I think that's going to be his best spot, not the slot.
30:35So, again, that's kind of theories in the linebackers.
30:38Until Overshawn comes back, D-Winters is a target. I mean, the Ravens got after it over and over, putting Zay Flowers at the three spot.
30:45So, it's one of those where, again, these are these weeks that I'm like, all right, do you know your personnel?
30:51And if they don't do those, because I think there's clear natural answers, is what I always call it.
30:56I think they have clear natural answers to attack this defense.
30:59And if they just kind of just keep running it down the throat and just doing basic zone runs, I'm going to
31:05be like, okay, I'm done with you guys. Like, if you can't get score points against this defense, okay, I'm done with you guys.
31:12Excited to see how they dial up some non-explosive plays to Xavier Hutchinson from the slot.
31:16Should be fun. Speaking of non-explosive plays, the Patriots made a lot of explosive plays last season.
31:21We have not seen a lot of that so far this year.
31:25This is probably our most complicated question here, Nate, although maybe you think it's an easy answer.
31:29Very fascinated to talk about this. Drake May, is he failing the ecosystem or is the ecosystem failing him?
31:35And where does the slider on that scale fall?
31:37That's the last point is the key. I would say it's 80% the system and then him just botting them out, having
31:43the worst plays at the worst times. So, it's like he's not helping.
31:47He's spiraling at the worst times. I even broke down, I've looked at it, I'm writing about it right now, actually.
31:53But it's, I mean, pick a stat right here.
31:55All right, how about this? Speaking of Packers receivers.
31:58So, this is how I've kind of too long didn't read.
32:01The offense is archaic. It's very sound. I always say this, but it's very archaic.
32:05And if you watch it against the Jags, it was more striking than ever.
32:09Watching the Jags with their motion and moving, bumping guys, changing the number count at the snap.
32:14Run game diversity. Just, oh, we're going jumbo on this play.
32:17We're getting Brenton Strange at fullback and running play action.
32:19Just diversity and ideas and nothing new. The same concepts that the Patriots run.
32:23But they just window dress them so much better.
32:26So, it's one of those that, like the interception that May had in the end zone.
32:30Which was, I think this is, that's the play that I've kind of been going.
32:34If you want a too long didn't read to what's going on right now.
32:38That play was, first off, the Jaguars players said they knew exactly what was coming.
32:43Because that's the only formation, that's the only play they run out of that formation.
32:47So, not a good start. On top of it, they have Stevenson in there.
32:51As much as I like Ramon J. Stevenson in real football terms more than most other people.
32:55That play needs speed to the flat. So, that's a Henderson play.
32:59So, they have Stevenson in on a play that should be Henderson.
33:02Okay. So, it's a front, it's a bootleg. Matt Collins, who's only been there, like, he should be only there to block.
33:08But apparently, he's their best receiver. A team that the Bills moved on from, the Falcons moved on from, everybody's moved on from.
33:15But he's their best receiver, apparently. He's in there to block.
33:18He doesn't block anybody. So, okay, great. Then, they got, the play is dialed up for Chisholm.
33:22Again, they have tight end injuries. So, I know why they're going to receivers.
33:26He falls, trips. And then, on top of it, so everything's screwed before the snap of the ball.
33:31And then, after the snap. But then, what May does is compound the issues by trying to throw the Chisholm against Travis Hunter.
33:38So, it's just, Hunter made a great play. Don't get me wrong.
33:41But that's one of those, don't make it the classic quarterback teaching point.
33:45Do not make a bad play worse. Especially when you don't have dudes around you.
33:49And you don't have, like, a fireball team. It's like, you don't have a supernova team.
33:53You just got to take the field goal there.
33:56He did the same thing at the end of the Seahawks game.
33:59Driving, driving, driving. Matt Collins runs an inside fade when he should go outside.
34:03Screws up the whole play. They're cutting. He's got pressure on his face.
34:07Just throw it away. Just throw it away. Take the field goal.
34:10I get you want to be a hero. That's kind of all the issues.
34:14But, talking about those Packers receivers, why I just said that, though.
34:17Romeo Dobbs' usage. And, again, there's so many kind of microcosms of what the issues are.
34:22Last year, and we've joked about this, Jordan Love, Romeo Dobbs out routes.
34:25Set your clock to it. One of the connections you could just watch all day.
34:30Last year, 22.5% of Romeo Dobbs' routes were out-breaking routes.
34:32This year, it's 11%. All right. 16% were just outs.
34:35This year, it's 6%. 44.2% of his routes are vertical.
34:38I don't think of Romeo Dobbs as a vertical guy.
34:41He was not at Nevada. He was not with the Packers.
34:44I think of him as an in-breaking, out-breaking guy.
34:46That's me. Last year, it was 31% was vertical.
34:49This year, he has three targets on out-breaking routes.
34:51He has three catches for 100 yards. Know your personnel.
34:54Know your personnel. And, like, that's it. Know your personnel.
34:57So, again, it's one of these things where football is a lot of variables.
35:01It is a lot of the circumstances, and I can get into even more.
35:05The Patriots receivers haven't forced a single missed tackle this entire season.
35:08One, Drake May, on gains of passes of 15 or more yards or receptions of 15 or more yards, only two were thrown under 15 yards.
35:15He has an air yards per attempt of 21.4 yards when he has to get an explosive.
35:20All right. For comparison, Mahomes is at 12 yards.
35:23Joe Burrow is at 15 yards. So, he has to launch stuff to create anything in this offense because the run game is a jab.
35:30It kind of feels like the Packers run game last year, but it has no diversity in that as well.
35:35So, again, I'm going to write about this, so make sure you check that out on Yahoo Sports tomorrow.
35:40But it's one of these where it's 80% of the circumstances and then May's spiraling at the very worst times.
35:46And you just feel, okay, Kyle Williams interception. He runs the route five yards short.
35:50I can't tweet that because everyone goes, you're defending May.
35:53It's like, he's five yards short on the route.
35:55Like, I have examples I'm going to use in the article.
35:58But just, again, compounding issues that others are kind of laying at his feet.
36:02It's a mess. It's slow, boring, and he's making it worse.
36:05But other than that, the defense is pretty cool.
36:08Oh, boy. Who cares? I mean, this offense, we showed it earlier, scored fewer points than the Miami Dolphins this year.
36:14That's humiliating. That's a one-point drive, I think, right?
36:16Yeah. That's humiliating. That's humiliating. It does. When we look at a lot of this stuff, by the way, it's, you mentioned the Romeo Dobbs vertical routes.
36:24That's because they've essentially, now that A.J. Brown is out, they've had to take Romeo Dobbs and make him their X receiver,
36:30which makes sense because he's an X receiver. That's what he was for Green Bay.
36:34It made no sense, by the way, to have him be this kind of movement flanker receiver, as we saw in week one.
36:41He was terrible in week one. He's actually been semi-functional since then.
36:44But with the X receiver in this offense, I've talked about with Kayshawn Body, with Kyle Williams from last year, Nelson Aguilar
36:50in 2021, all they do is run go routes.
36:53They run a bunch of go routes from the X receiver position.
36:56And guess what? Romeo Dobbs did that early on in his career when he was with Aaron Rodgers, and Aaron Rodgers hated him.
37:02And he wasn't a productive player then because he can't separate down the field.
37:06But yeah, out routes, those in cuts, that's where he really took a step forward.
37:10But that's not what this system prioritizes. So it's constantly taking these square pegs, putting them in round holes.
37:16It seems to me, Nate, that they basically just bet their entire offseason on, well, we're going to run back everything that
37:22we did last year from a structural standpoint. Other than they get under center a good bit, 26th in motion, 29th in play action, spread it out.
37:29They've been more three receiver heavy as the season has gone on.
37:33They have some issues at the 10-end position for sure.
37:35Injuries. But yeah, injuries and everything. They obviously lost the – that's part of it.
37:40But anyway, so still though, they're going to just do all that, run it back, and place A.J.
37:45Brown in the X receiver position, and we'd be fine.
37:47Well, A.J. Brown hasn't been available since the first half of week one.
37:51And you see the results of that. So this is another one, honestly, I think could get worse before it gets better.
37:57Drake May is a guy I dropped in fantasy this week, and I don't really think I'm going to regret that.
38:03I'm fine with him in dynasty, but redraft, yeah, I'm like, I totally get dropping him.
38:08I dropped – you know how hard it was for me last week?
38:11He dropped Justin Herbert. I was like, whatever. I know what I'm seeing.
38:15Think of Kyle Williams' best game as a pro against the Bucs last year.
38:19And remember what routes he caught? Over routes when he went in motion.
38:22But the guy obviously can't win vertically like that.
38:25And I know the wazoo tape was him, like, busting and doing some vertical stuff.
38:29Put him – he should be the Z to me.
38:32Yeah. Like, that – it's pretty easy. He should be the Z.
38:35He should be the slot over Pop Douglas. I mean, like, enough for him with Pop Douglas.
38:40Enough of Pop Douglas. Oh, my God. So that was another thing.
38:43There's another play. Actually, Cam Ward faced the same issue.
38:46I know we're about to talk about him. But Cam Ward throwing to Wandale Robinson, who's 5'9 with 29-inch arms.
38:52And then Pop Douglas ran a corner route, and Drake May was on a boot.
38:56Throws it to him. Neither of the balls are bad.
38:59Like, they're not – if I were grading, like, how you grade kind of throws a 0-1-2.
39:03Two is a perfect throw. One's like, okay, that's catchable.
39:06They were ones. But neither guy, like, gives it a chance because they're so short and small.
39:11And even Tom Brady brought up this point when he was talking about Lad McConkie.
39:15When he was talking about the Chargers, he goes, he's a great player, but small players get smaller down the field.
39:21It puts a lot on the quarterback to be perfect with the throw.
39:24That's why you want big dudes in the red zone.
39:27You want big dudes on those things. So, and kind of my last thing, too, Hunter Henry is kind of like their steady Eddie guy.
39:34He's definitely taking a step back this year. And it's not just eye tests and making mistakes or anything like that.
39:40I looked at next-gen stats. I looked at all the speed stats.
39:43His average speed in 2024 was 10.8 miles an hour.
39:46Last year, it was 10.55. This year, it's 10.3.
39:49His average route speed was 12.2 in 2024. It was just over 12.
39:52Last year, it's 11.3. He's almost dropped a full miles per hour on his average route speed.
39:57This is not just when he catches it. This is just all of his routes.
40:01And that's tangible. I can see that. I'm like, oh, he just can't get any separation whatsoever.
40:06So, they're slow. They're archaic. And then they have the youngest starting quarterback in the NFL feeling like he has to make a play.
40:13And he's just trying to do too much. Yeah.
40:15He definitely deserves some blame here because, as you said, he's making a bad situation worse.
40:20But this offense, to me, we said it after week one, Nate.
40:23And I know there was so much talk about the schedule.
40:26Just this offense is a bad team beater. And right now, they've not been playing bad teams.
40:31They've actually played a pretty tough schedule to open up here.
40:34Yes. I know. That's what those Kevin's are going to happen.
40:37My stats are bunk, by the way. They played the Seahawks twice.
40:40The Seahawks play cover six more than anybody. No one is beating the Seahawks cover six.
40:45So, that cover six thing is bunk. I have a threat on it.
40:48So, if you want to check that out. Just look up Tice.
40:52Nate Tice. There's not a lot of Nate Tices out there.
40:55Look at me on X and just see me, the cover six stuff.
40:58Because that whole thing is bunk. And I'm writing about that as well.
41:02But May has got to be smarter and just kind of be a safe.
41:06They have to win ugly. That's their formula this year.
41:09Win ugly. Hit two throws. And hopefully, you guys actually catch it.
41:12You mentioned Justin Herbert. Since we talked about them last week, we don't have to be long on this one.
41:18But, again, where's the scale for Justin Herbert? I think we all can see anybody with eyeballs knows this situation.
41:23It's not working out. Weirdly, Nate, it's so funny.
41:26We all know that Tua is limited. And anybody that's a serious person knows that Tua is a limited quarterback.
41:31And it is what it is. He was a limiting factor as a quarterback.
41:35And yet, Mike McDaniel, when he hasn't had Tua in Miami and so far in L.A., the offense has been terrible.
41:41And I'm just not really sure. There's a lot going on here.
41:44Again, we talked about them last week. Where's the sliding scale on Herbert versus the ecosystem?
41:49Who's failing who? Very similar to the Patriots discussion.
41:51Making bad plays worse, trying to push it at the worst times.
41:55His pick in the end zone last week against the Bills, the C.J.
41:58Garner-Johnson one, is egregious. Like, there's no – I'm not even a guy that I consider myself a Herbert defender.
42:04I'm more just like a Herbert realist. I feel like that's the best way to put it.
42:09It's like his highs are highs. He can play a little too robotic and on script a little too much where it's
42:15like, eh, try and push it there. And he's had enough starts where that is like high school stuff.
42:20And I'm actually like – I'm not even kidding when I say that.
42:24That – and I said this on our show on Football 3.
42:27I want Hayden on Sunday night. It was that a deep safety in cover three like Gardner-Johnson was.
42:32That's called it – literally, we call it as quarterbacks, we call that a post safety because it's taking away a post route.
42:38Don't throw the post. And why is it called a post route?
42:42Because – yeah, don't throw the post. That's the one route you don't throw.
42:46And on rewatch, I watched that right away Sunday night.
42:49And I watched it back on All-22. I was like, oh, was it disguised?
42:52It was static cover three. Like Gardner-Johnson doesn't move.
42:55And there's not like he's shaded over nothing. And so one of those where it's like, oh, you're just not even seeing it right now.
43:02So that's like – yeah. So kind of similar to that discussion I just said with May, I will say the run
43:08game did have a little bit of life where it was like, okay, they're 10th in success right in run game, which
43:14shocked me when I looked it up. But so it's just one of those things where it's like there's little signs of life there.
43:21But whoo, Herbert's got to chill out or do something, go to meditation, something.
43:25But then they play the Seahawks this week. So good luck.
43:28All right. I know Marriott got after him, but good luck.
43:31That's – yeah. Not who you want to play against if you want to get right game.
43:36I don't – this is – let me be clear.
43:38This is not going to solve everything. I'm ready to see a little bit more of Trey Harris and a little less of Quentin Johnston.
43:45Quentin Johnston at this point. I thought Trey Harris had it.
43:48I actually just – yeah, he looked pretty good, especially on the out routes.
43:52And that's where – I mean, even on that play, honestly, it's not the cleanest throw.
43:57Like it's not the three yards of separation. But I actually think he probably could have gone to Harris on the right
44:03side on that play as opposed to throwing the post to – MVS, by the way.
44:07That's the other thing that's crazy about that. MVS.
44:10Yes. Yes. Yes. I know he's wearing number 13 and maybe he mistakes him for Keenan Allen, but I mean, my God, man, what are we doing here?
44:18That was the craziest part about it to me.
44:20And even Rondae Gadsden is like kind of open underneath and he takes the high throw.
44:25It's just – everything is broken here. We're definitely in – you got to prove it to me with almost anyone on the Chargers here.
44:32Ladd is playing well, but there's a lot of just – a lot of questionable stuff here.
44:36We're going to finish with Jalen Hurts and Cam Ward.
44:39Jalen Hurts, we talked – I talked about this a little bit with Ray that when we talk ecosystem with Jalen Hurts,
44:45you know, the ecosystem is the same. Like all that stuff that they said in the offseason, nothing's changed.
44:51They're like dead last in play action. They don't use any motion.
44:54They're all three receiver heavy. I know because of injuries.
44:57They're playing Zach Hurts who – I mean, Zach Hurts got his butt kicked on the screen to Makai Lemon, one of
45:03the hundred failed screens to Makai Lemon, which is like what do you expect?
45:07Zach Hurts is a 35-year-old player or whatever who tore his ACL in December and just signed with the team like 30 seconds ago.
45:13He looks like he's – Nate, that looks like you out there trying to block on that screen.
45:18So their tight ends are – yeah. Their tight ends are a mess.
45:22So they're just three receiver heavy super spread. So the ecosystem is not even what it's supposed to be.
45:27I don't really even know. This is just same old, same old with the Eagles to me.
45:32That's it. It's not like I'm even – if we talk about the guys in this offense, like I'm still hiding Devontae
45:38Smith, all that, but it is what it is.
45:41I mean, look at – I know the throwing over the middle thing is just overplayed and all that, but it showed
45:47– reared its ugly head again last Monday night.
45:49And, I mean, even the pick at the end was one of those where Hurts predetermined it and one of those –
45:56quarterbacks got to be – this is kind of a grander meta macro view.
45:59Quarterbacks, I think, now have to be more willing to push to just little hitch routes, stop routes on the outside and
46:06just take what I call – they call them gimmies.
46:08And I think it's kind of – it's circled back.
46:11Like gimmies kind of fell out of vogue in the late 2010s into what we are now.
46:16And now that's kind of come back a little bit.
46:19So that's just a sidebar. But the tight end blocking was something I had worried about anyways going into the season, especially
46:25with this offensive system that they wanted to run because Goddard had taken a step back as a blocker.
46:30And Johnny Munt's Johnny Munt. Like he's fine. And then they want to Raritan – or not Raritan, Stowers going.
46:36He's nothing right now, which I knew. I knew – even my write-up about him is he's two years away from being two years away.
46:43Like that's – he's a project for two years from now.
46:46But that was – my issue was, oh, you want to lean into this?
46:50And you don't have guys that can set the edge?
46:52That's weird. And then the run game got going on Monday night, but then they didn't lean into the run game.
46:58And so like you – this is a great stat from Ian right here is that their third downs are really long right now.
47:05And you don't want to make a living on third and long.
47:08Like it's just – it's impossible. It's just so, so hard to live on third down.
47:13Unless you're in third and shorts always. Just that Packers discussion.
47:16So that's just one of those things where it's – yeah, the run game got going, but they're going to be very
47:22dependent on who they play against to get that run game going because the O-line is taking a little step back.
47:28Man, little is I think being kind. I've been really disappointed a lot.
47:31Like specific areas of the offensive line. Like the interior is just such a – it's such a problem right now.
47:37Just Packers obviously aren't who they are. Yeah, you just play the Bears every week.
47:41That's fine. Yeah, I am – I think my original take on the Eagles was they were going to be a slow
47:48start team and they've been a slow start team.
47:50So I'm willing to kind of shelve them for now and see what it looks like midseason when maybe some of these
47:56things get corrected and everybody settles into the system.
47:59But I also think the system is just going to kind of be the Jalen Hurts offense and it's going to be a high wire act.
48:06Like that is what it is. Real quick before we go to break, Cam Ward.
48:10I don't really want to have a long discussion about the Tennessee Titans because we're once again – you should be playing
48:16zero Titans in fantasy, which is exactly where we arrived at about this point last year.
48:21Yeah, I don't know what to tell you. So my question for you is more about like is it already over for Cam Ward?
48:27Because I know that's unfair to say we're halfway – we're not even halfway through his second season.
48:32But it's been so, so bad statistically both years.
48:35I don't think it's going to get better any this year.
48:38I don't even know if Brian Dable is going to make it through this season.
48:42And the vibes are just so bad with this team again.
48:45Really bad. And I rewatched the Giants game because I'm like, all right, what does this look like?
48:50Because they didn't get a first down for forever in that game.
48:54And it's a lot of sequences where they run, run, pass, which is like – I did a show with Bill Barnwell
49:00yesterday and he was like, do they – we talked about Cam just for a little bit.
49:05And he's like, I don't think they trust him.
49:07And at first I was like, I don't know about that.
49:10And I watched him like, you might be right.
49:13They don't. And I'm not – I've never been worried about how Ward sees the game.
49:17And it's one of those things where, yeah, his style looks like it's very trick shotty.
49:22But he actually usually is going to the right answer.
49:24But some of this stuff is – it looks like a little predetermined.
49:28It looks kind of Herbert-ish where it's angry. Where it's not like – he's like, I'm going to freaking throw this and you better freaking catch it.
49:35Like, you know what? That's how it feels. I don't know.
49:39But that's how it just feels when I watch it.
49:41But the vibes are awful. I think the receivers are all taking turns, screwing up.
49:45Wanda Robinson's dropping balls. Calvin Ridley's and Carnell Tate are running the same route, which happened twice.
49:50Just off my – that's not any detailed notes.
49:53It's just twice I noticed that in this game after happening in week one.
49:57Didn't really show up week two. It was a little simpler game plan in week two.
50:01But that – yeah, don't have any Titans. Robinson's – long story short, if I'm out – I'm Cam Ward neutral right now.
50:08Again, he grew on me as a prospect. Rewatching him last year, he kind of grew on me.
50:13And this was the joke you and I kept saying.
50:15There's no stat I can point at that goes, hey, trust me, bro, on this.
50:19It's dire though right now. And it's one of those I'm going to give it until Halloween.
50:24They have a bye week after November 1st, November – so whatever week that is.
50:28So basically that's when I would give my assessment.
50:31They play the Ravens, Texans, Colts, Browns, and then Bengals.
50:34So kind of some matchups where they can kind of maybe get some answers.
50:38And maybe I can have a little more answers.
50:40I will say though, the O-line looks way improved.
50:43JC Latham looks like a stud again, like where he was supposed to be picked.
50:47The O-line just looks sound and pretty good. So the passing game's got to get right.
50:51And I don't know if Dable's that guy. And I'm still not on Ward.
50:55Like I really don't know. Like I feel like Switzerland on him right now.
50:59I'm just like I'm neutral because I don't know.
51:02I really don't know. He's a tough assessment for me.
51:04And I don't want to – there's enough flashes.
51:07I'm like okay. But then there's some stuff where it's just like it doesn't feel like he lets some stuff breathe because of pure anger when he's playing.
51:15And I mean he feels angry every time he's at a press conference that I see too.
51:19And like there's a weird combative – Right. And you know this is a weird combative relationship there.
51:24Robert Sala already looks hopeless. I kind of worry that if we don't know, like we're truly this neutral and maybe neutral
51:31to I don't know at this point in his career.
51:33And I know it's still very early. But like barring a drastic change, it kind of feels like we know, which is not a good place to be.
51:41So we'll see what happens. And I know this is super early again.
51:45Sorry. I know we're supposed to go to break.
51:47But this is how I kind of put it is when he got drafted number one overall, I always thought of like
51:53how my grade on him was kind of like how Goff was coming out where it was like in a normal draft and a perfect draft.
52:01It's like I wouldn't take him until the teens, not number one.
52:04But like okay, you can talk yourself into it.
52:07There's guys right now in this next class, Arch Manning and other guys that are interesting that I'm like I have a bigger grade on them.
52:14So if they are just following their math of grades like that just gives you your answer depending on where they pick not that arch.
52:21There's a long way to go till that point.
52:23I'm just talking about process here, even as a guy that is not totally out on ward.
52:28The game's the game. You know, this is how NFL, you know what stands for right?
52:32Not for long. It means in a lot of different ways.
52:36Man, so depressing. Okay, that was a tough one.
52:38We are going to take a quick break. We come back.
52:41We're talking a real banger Thursday night football game.
52:44Steelers at Browns. We'll get into that right after this.
52:46All right, we're back. Let's talk some Thursday night football here.
52:49Steelers two and a half point road favorites going in to Cleveland.
52:53And you know, I'm kind of joking about this game being maybe a little questionable on Thursday night.
52:58But these teams won last week. Looked pretty good on offense.
53:01Yeah, you're Nate Tyson's interested. I'm definitely interested to watch this game.
53:04Let's start on offense with the Steelers. As I read off yesterday with Ray, Jalen Warren, 91% of the running back touches.
53:10That's only happened seven times in a game so far this season.
53:1421 and a half fantasy points when the running back has that.
53:17Like, he's an auto start in your lineup. I love to see it actually because Rico Dattel has already been ruled out, which is to be expected.
53:25I wanted to see more Jalen Warren anyways. Jalen Warren is good.
53:28He's a really awesome player and could have had an even bigger game last week.
53:32So he's one I feel like I'm buying that performance from last week.
53:36Like, the passing game, Nate, how much of that was just like, oh, the Bengals defense is back.
53:41And how much of that was Aaron Rodgers and this thing looking pretty good?
53:45I think it was OK, a little bit of the Bengals, mostly the Bengals defense, especially the linebackers.
53:50And now their safety is actually they're playing the Jags this week.
53:53So, you know, if you want to focus on that game as well.
53:57Also, it was the Steelers playing the Max Hennisher at right tackle and swapping out their linemen and the offensive line just looking good.
54:03And Hennisher is getting a lot of the focus.
54:06And, you know, I made sure to get my tweets out there about it.
54:10But Troy Fontenew, the left tackle, looks incredible right now.
54:13And all the big runs, if you notice what the Steelers last week were to the left, to the left, to the left.
54:19And I think that's going to be a thing for them all year.
54:23So, you know, I think the Browns have some dudes up front.
54:26But Mason Graham got some pass rush snaps, but run game wise, you can get after him.
54:31I actually think the Steelers match up well against them on the interior.
54:34Warren is a pretty good runner in all runs.
54:37I like him best in gap scheme and duo runs.
54:40Not that the Steelers really lean into those. But really, there's enough with that Steelers offense that it's like, OK, that was
54:46the formula I wanted them to do. Run the ball and then Aaron Rodgers have some third down throws, not just live in the check down underneath world.
54:53Because they don't have the personnel for that. So that was like encouraging in the sense that it's like, that's their formula for this season.
55:00Going against the Browns defense, I like, you know, they're kind of iffy against tight ends, which is one of the props I like.
55:07But they're not bad. Like, they're not like, you know, the Jags got after them, but they're not outright bad.
55:13They're mid, but they're not like outright bad. But I think actually the Steelers actually have some just, again, nice natural answers
55:19if they want to run the ball, especially to the outside.
55:22Yeah, that's a great point. Yeah, so much of, I mean, the Roman Wilson stuff felt like fluky.
55:27Ben Skoranek actually had like, he had the insert play action touchdown, which, you know, that's going to have.
55:32That's going to. Yeah. Yeah. Designs. Exactly. Which, yeah.
55:35You know, that's good to see Adam McCarthy and good to see.
55:38Yeah, credit to those guys for executing. I would just I would just I would just be surprised if if that happens
55:44again against this defense in Cleveland that can really get after it.
55:48You know, it's not the same unit, obviously, without Miles Garrett, of course, but they play a ton of man coverage and
55:54they lead the NFL in man coverage rate right now.
55:56The outside receivers. It's just going to be a struggle, I think, for this team all season long with how static things
56:03are with the way Metcalf is playing, you know, Pittman coming back from a bunch of injuries.
56:07At this point in his career, I just I would I'm I like Jeremy Bernard, but he made a lot of mistakes
56:13in week two or he made at least one big mistake in week two.
56:17And you wonder how like that's going to go with Aaron Rodgers.
56:21When Roman Wilson made a mistake, they threw him on the bench and then tossed Bernard back in there.
56:26So it feels like they're kind of will they won't they with that room that do at least all season long.
56:32So interested to talk about that one there. I will say, too, on the on the Browns side of things, I know we're both big Denzel Boston fans.
56:40I think like Casey Concepcion has been close to a big game.
56:43It just hasn't quite happened yet for him because Watson is Watson.
56:46Where are you at with the Browns offense and what they showed?
56:50Yeah. Oh, my kind of last little note, too, is Denzel Ward's playing great and he actually matches up well on the outside, too.
56:56So it's like that's another component of the outside stuff.
56:59Yeah. So to continue on that, but yes, Casey Concepcion is close.
57:03But the thing is, I kind of looked at it because I was like, oh, yes, Steelers versus slot targets.
57:08They're they're kind of like average ish. Forty seven percent success rate.
57:11You know, the high high completion percentage or maybe catches if you want to focus on that Steelers versus outside targets.
57:17They're garbage. They have allowed the fourth highest success rate against outside targets.
57:21They've allowed one hundred and twenty three passing rating, sixty two point sixty two percent success rate.
57:26They've allowed this year. Twenty seven to thirty seven, three hundred and ninety four yards, three touchdowns on outside targets.
57:31The lines are second, by the way, or second most.
57:34They've allowed. I think they love the second most EPA and they play the Panthers monsters on Monday night.
57:39So alert alert for that. Please be healthy for that game.
57:42Please, please, please. It's the perfect matchup for him.
57:45It should be a lot of my God. My friend, he can have to from next gen stats.
57:50He has a whole bunch of stats about the weight differential.
57:53And it's like one of the most extreme height and weight differentials between receivers and tight ends and DBs like on record.
57:59Like it's like a top ten, like just differential.
58:02But we're talking Thursday night, not Monday. No, but twenty three of the twenty seven completions have been successful.
58:07The EPA per drop back on outside targets been point six, three nine explosives allowed.
58:11You know, lines out outside Denzel Boston. Ninety one percent of his routes have been from the outside.
58:16Eight receptions on 14 targets, one hundred and eighty six yards, tenth most in the NFL so far.
58:21So the props I like this week if we want to get into them.
58:25Denzel Boston ladders, baby. Let's climb the ladder. So Denzel Boston.
58:28I wish it was a stairway to heaven instead of Boston.
58:31You know, it could have been easy. But if you just want to go simple, the over under is thirty five and a half yards right now.
58:39Over fifty yards is plus one sixty over seventy five five yards is plus four fifty over one hundred yards is plus ten fifty.
58:45Anytime TD scores plus three forty. Have fun with it.
58:48Whichever one you want to roll with. I looked them all up for you guys, so you don't have to.
58:54But I was on bad MGM. But I'm all in on Boston this week, not only just because of his own ability,
59:00but because of who they're playing against. The other one I tried to look up was tight end targets because Harold fans, Harold fan.
59:07And Steelers actually pretty good against tight ends. Jalen Ramsey's in the slot, helps it out.
59:11Fewest attempts allowed. Fewest yards allowed. Only one successful play on tight ends.
59:15That's the best in the week so far this year.
59:17So maybe can say Casey Concepcion. But I think Boston's the guy I'm kind of a hard charge.
59:22And again, I know it didn't really work out last week, but that was a weird game.
59:27But yeah, that's all Boston. And then I have a couple Steelers props if you guys want those.
59:32Well, on the Panthers defense. I know now it's going to be it's going to be tough because both their cornerbacks, Mike
59:38Jackson and JC Horner now for like eight weeks.
59:41But that's one thing that they can do pretty well is limit explosive plays on the outside.
59:46Is that Panthers defense again? Man, it's going to be a track meet on Monday Night Football.
59:50Wish we were talking about Monday Night Football here, clearly.
59:53But anyways, I'm actually curious what the routes are that the Steelers are most vulnerable to on the outside because they play a ton of cover for.
60:01They play a ton of zone, which can kind of turn into pattern matching.
60:05And when they play man coverage, they get fried to the Steelers defense because they don't have the cornerback talent on the outside.
60:11So that leans into Denzel Boston really well. I like that.
60:14Maybe Denzel Boston is like a sneaky start in fantasy here.
60:17And that's kind of I mean, obviously, Harold Fannin is mostly like most likely a fantasy starter for you.
60:22Casey kind of need to see it first. And I think it can come together.
60:27Could be this week. Could be at any point again when they play man coverage.
60:31Maybe Casey gets them for a big play here or there.
60:34But yeah, I think Quinjohn Judkins is not going to happen in this ecosystem.
60:38Real quick, what are your Steelers props here? Yeah, the Browns versus tight end targets this year.
60:42They've allowed eight catches on 11 targets, 108 yards.
60:45All eight of those were successful. Six went for first downs, three explosives, 72.7% success rate.
60:49So anything kind of Fryermuth, Washington touchdown wise. Anytime touchdown for Fryermuth is plus 390.
60:54Washington's plus 600 anytime. If you're really feeling, you know, if you really want to get into it, Fryermuth first touchdown score is plus 1400.
61:01Washington's plus 2200. So if you're really feeling frisky on those, that's the ones I'm going to be leaning on.
61:06But I think it is a tight end running back game for the Steelers in a good way, as opposed to last
61:12year's kind of like, yeah, bad shenanigans, scary shenanigans.
61:15I'm trying to remember the quote from Super Troopers.
61:17Evil shenanigans. That was last year. I think these are going to be cheeky and fun as opposed to what it was last year.
61:24Feels like a low scoring game to me. 38 and a half point over under.
61:28I don't think we're going to see a lot of points, especially from the Pittsburgh side here.
61:33Probably it could be enough to win for sure.
61:35Just because I still don't really trust Watson. He's still playing really shaky, even though the results have been good the last two weeks.
61:42We'll see how that plays out. Nate, appreciate you, man.
61:45This has been great. We're going to say goodbye to you.
61:48And then we're going to take a quick break and come back on the other side with Justin Boone and the flex fit check.
61:55We'll get into that right after this. And we're back.
61:57Nate and I were not doing a good enough job on this segment.
62:01So the professionals were like, we need to bring a real fantasy analyst in here.
62:05And that's why we got you doing this one with us.
62:08What's going on, man? No, we got so many great analysts now.
62:12I think we're still trying to figure out where the pieces fit best.
62:15And we're doing it on the fly a little bit.
62:18But that's all right, man. And I got the memo here.
62:21No one asked me to do this. But I went into the closet and I got my first gear that I wore
62:27for our Buffalo show in the summer. We got the hat.
62:30We got the shirt. And I keep telling my wife, I want to get down to Dick's Sporting Goods.
62:36I want to get some more stuff. And again, no one is putting me up to saying this.
62:41I just really like the repair. I like the gear.
62:43And it's tough during the season, Herman. As you know, it's tough to carve out some time to go on a little shopping spree.
62:50But maybe after the season, I'll get that done.
62:53I think our friends at Verse will probably be hitting you up here pretty soon after that great sell job you just did there.
62:59Yeah, I was wearing my Versed pants at the wedding that we were at last weekend.
63:04Not the actual wedding, but one of the welcome parties.
63:07And I was looking cute. I was getting compliments.
63:09There was a lot of stuff going our way.
63:12We love Versed. We also love getting the right players in our flex here, Justin Boone.
63:16So let's get down to business here. Let's talk three wide receivers here to start off.
63:21First one up, Jameson Williams at Carolina was just talking about this game a little bit with Nate in the last segment,
63:27how it is going to be an absolute track meet with the Panthers and Lions on Monday Night Football.
63:32How are you feeling about Jameson Williams this week going against a Panthers defense that just put both of its starting corners
63:38on IR and are going to be out for a long stretch here?
63:42I think we have to qualify this one a little bit because I believe on the Panic Meter show on Monday, we
63:48talked about JMO and we had some panic on him.
63:51Might even been total panic on him. And I think that's accurate for the rest of the season where you drafted him.
63:57He's not going to return that value. He's not going to be that wide receiver to the rest of the way.
64:03He's more of that boomer bus wide receiver three.
64:05And it's because Sam Laporte is healthy. They have so many options there.
64:09And yet Harmon, I think you can start in pretty confidently in this game.
64:13And it's not just the injuries on the Panthers defense.
64:15It's the injuries on the Lions defense. That's what's going to create this like crazy shootout atmosphere that we're going to get from this one.
64:22So very excited. Keeping a little eye on the weather for this one.
64:26I looked at it. I don't normally look at it and put too much stock in it till later in the week
64:32because the forecasts get a little more accurate at that point.
64:35But we'll keep an eye out for potentially some rain that might damper these things a little bit.
64:40But right now, just massive shootout potential tied for the highest projected point total on the week.
64:45Fifty one and a half. Lions are third and implied point total.
64:48Twenty seven. This is the spot to start. J.
64:51Moe, if you're looking for that boom week, everything is lining up for this to be the boom week.
64:56I have to think you agree here, Harmon. I do agree.
64:59I wish this game was in Detroit to avoid some of the weather.
65:03I had J. Moe ranked as wide receiver twenty five coming into this season, which I feel like is ultimately going to be perfect.
65:09He probably is going to end up finishes finishing his wide receiver five twenty five while never being the wide receiver twenty five.
65:16It's going to be wide receiver forty forty forty.
65:18And then this is the boom week here in week number four.
65:22Yeah, I agree with you. We're getting Jameson Williams into lineups.
65:25Listen, if it's a three for forty type of game, you know what?
65:28You know what you're doing. You know what aisle you're shopping in.
65:32It is what it is. But I think this is the right week to chase the ceiling, especially that late primetime game hammer here.
65:38So, yeah, let's let's see it. I think this is the week to chase Jameson Williams.
65:43Let's talk about a receiver. I had ranked much higher than wide receiver twenty five.
65:47I don't know if he's finished at wide receiver twenty five yet this season, because this team has been a stone cold disaster.
65:54Emeka Ibuka facing the Green Bay Packers with undrafted free agent Jalen Daniels.
65:57I think Ibuka has looked good on tape. I also think it has not mattered so far yet this season.
66:03What are you doing with Ibuka this week? Well, I wrote the first version of my buys and sells column this week.
66:09Obviously, I had some things going on earlier in the season.
66:12Didn't get to do it yet, but you really don't need to do buys and sells until we get a couple weeks
66:18into the year and we start to get a better idea what things are going to look like.
66:23Off this ride with him right now. And you're saying that you think he looks OK.
66:28Does it even matter? Like I was worried coming into the year because of the toe injury and how much that might impact him.
66:34But that whole offense is just looked out of sorts.
66:37And now we're going from Baker Mayfield. And let's face it, the bar was not very high with the way Mayfield was playing at the moment.
66:44But now we're going to go to a rookie backup and Daniels.
66:48And I'm curious to see what he looks like.
66:50But are we really expecting him to come in here and improve this offense?
66:54Like that's going to be a tough sell, right?
66:57Just if he can come out there and play average football, I think that would be a huge, a huge win for him.
67:03So we're looking at right now. I mean, five for 63, three for 16, saved his day with a touchdown a week to five for 62.
67:10It's just not the breakout that we were potentially expecting from him here.
67:14So I'm very worried about that. I'm just worried about this offense as a whole, even in a good matchup, Harmon.
67:20I'm calling him a sit here. I have him ranked all the way down at wide receiver 35.
67:25And when you get to that range, it kind of comes down to your options, of course.
67:29But to me, he's a very risky, volatile wide receiver three for fantasy at the moment.
67:34Yeah, I'm there with you. I have him on my 3-0 fantasy, the expert league team.
67:38I have him on the 3-0 team. So you can make some landmine picks and you could still end up turning out pretty good.
67:45No excuses. Make good decisions. Your 3-0 team, which this week is projected to lose to Joel's 0-3 team.
67:50I love to see that. That's fun. I think I've been projected to lose every week.
67:55And yet here I am, 3-0. All that matters is the results.
67:58Scoreboard, baby. Very lucky or very skilled. And maybe more skilled than the algorithm.
68:02That's what I'm going to go with. But Michael Wilson is a player I've yet to start actually on that team.
68:08I'm going to be playing Michael Wilson over Emeka Ibuka this week with some confidence.
68:12I'm going to have Michael Wilson ranked much higher.
68:15So, okay, let's get to the next one here.
68:17Roma Dunze, another guy that has not really had a boom week so far.
68:21He's had a couple of okay games back-to-back. Could have been much better if he just, you know, squeezed that football in the end zone on Monday night.
68:29But the targets have not really been there. He's playing a Jets defense that, again, it's a good matchup.
68:34Yet another guy that has been up and down.
68:37Are you playing Roma Dunze this week? I'm more curious of your take here because this was like your guy.
68:42I thought this was like your hill that you were standing on that you were like, he's the one.
68:47Him versus Luther Burton. I'm dying on. You thought they should be ranked closer.
68:51You like to Dunze. I want to know, are you backing off of that take here?
68:56Are we still pushing it? Are we moving forward?
68:58I think there are going to be better days ahead for Rome.
69:02But, I mean, everybody's been disappointing in this offense so far except Kalief Raymond.
69:06And the Kalief Raymond fact is something that I guarantee when you and I would talk these Bears receivers in the offseason,
69:12we did not bring up like, oh, could Kalief Raymond be the leading receiver?
69:16Yeah, could Kalief Raymond be the leading receiver? That was not ever one of the variables.
69:20And, you know, Raymond, I don't think is going to go away.
69:23I also don't think he's going to finish. I'd be shocked if he finishes the year as the leading receiver on the team.
69:30I think one of these three young guys can still get up and grab it.
69:34But the problem for Dunze is that he is so clearly the deep guy in the offense.
69:39And everyone else gets layups around the line of scrimmage.
69:42And especially when you are likely, I'm assuming Case Keenum is going to start again against the New York Jets.
69:47I don't know if that's been officially announced yet.
69:50I certainly don't think Williams is back yet this week.
69:52Now, it's just going to be a very rocky ride with Roma Dunze.
69:56I'm still going down with the ship over the course of the season because he's just a very frustrating player, Boone, because
70:02he looks really, really good as a separator. He gets open.
70:05But it's just like one play a game. And mostly it's just that drop against the Eagles.
70:10It's just so haunting. It still personally hurts my feelings that he didn't catch that pass.
70:14I'm still going down with the ship over the course of the season, but it is just pretty difficult here in week four.
70:21There's a couple spots where I'm probably going to play him, but he's not like a must play to me, if that makes sense.
70:28Yeah, I would agree with that. I would try to sit him if you can.
70:32I have him ranked lowest of all these guys.
70:34I'm at wide receiver 37. And the situation has just changed.
70:37We thought this was going to be three guys, really a consolidated passing game around the three of them.
70:43I still felt like he would be the third in that mix, but we thought this offense was going to score so much that it would be fine.
70:50He would still have enough big games. And yet now it's very clearly a four man group that we're splitting the spy between.
70:57Never thought we would have said that. Khalif Raymond, even in those like sicko deep dynasty leagues, Harmon, I saw him on waiver wires this offseason.
71:04Never once thought. I mean, he's been like a special teamer, a guy who used to get into the Lions offense just when there was injuries.
71:11He wasn't a guy that would come out and do this.
71:14And maybe that's kind of framing the way I'm looking at him right now, because in my waiver wire column, I didn't put him that high.
71:22I wasn't really expecting that he's going to continue this.
71:24I think the bottom is going to fall out eventually.
71:27But all four of these guys are going to be involved.
71:30Will they get Colson Loveland? Will they get a Dunze going a little more?
71:34Yeah, absolutely. But you nailed it. A Dunze's average depth of target is like almost twice as much as Burden and Raymond.
71:4017.8. 17.8. It's crazy. Trying to make these tougher catches downfield, that makes it harder on him.
71:45So yes, if he had gotten that touchdown, would have changed things for him?
71:49Absolutely. But I think overall, just what we're looking at in this offense right now, it's split between more guys.
71:54And he is not one of the featured ones, at least at the moment.
71:58I don't think he's going to be at any point here.
72:01So for me, he's a sit. He's that kind of risky wide receiver three flex, almost like touchdown or bust kind of wide receiver three flex, I think.
72:09Yeah, definitely. The Jets are ninth most in terms of points per drop back allowed in man coverage.
72:14I do think Roma Dunze is still their best man coverage receiver.
72:18So it could happen for him this week. I don't think he's a must sit, but I would also be I'm going to probably rank him out.
72:25So I'm definitely going to rank him outside my top 30 receivers.
72:28I know he's not the guy we're talking about here.
72:31Go ahead. Go ahead. No, I was just going to say that the Jets weirdly so far have not been a positive matchup either for receivers.
72:39They've allowed the fourth fewest receiving yards, the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers.
72:42So that just kind of adds a little more on top of it.
72:46It's early in the season. It's a small sample size, but they have not let a lot of receivers score big fantasy points on them this year.
72:54Yeah, I think a lot of that has to do with like they really did improve the spine of their defense, especially at the linebacker position.
73:01So a lot of these in cuts against zone coverage have been pretty blocked off for them, which will be fascinating seeing, you know, Khalif Raymond, Luther Burden.
73:09Like those are the routes they typically run. So if you didn't want to attack this Jets defense, it would be with the boundary receivers.
73:16But, you know, that's just not what's happened so far in this Bears offense.
73:19I don't know if it's going to happen with Case Keenum here.
73:23He will be ranked for short outside of my top probably 33 wide receivers this week.
73:27And for me, Luther Burden, I don't know where you're going to have him.
73:31He'll probably be, I don't know, in the low end wide receiver to range because he's got he got the volume last week.
73:38A lot of it was on like kind of designer stuff close to the line of scrimmage.
73:42And yeah, that can obviously go one way or another.
73:45Yeah, that's exactly the range I have him in.
73:48I'm still pretty, pretty excited about what Burden can do this season.
73:51And we'll see what these other guys can eventually come through with, if anything, as the season goes along.
73:56So far, a little disappointing from not just the Dunsay, but Loveland and Burden at least showed some signs of hope on Monday.
74:03So 32-year-old Khalif Raymond, leading receiver for the Ben Johnson offense this year.
74:06To your point, like it was when guys were injured in Detroit.
74:10And if you're playing the Hopium game here, both Burden and a Dunsay did deal with preseason injuries.
74:15Maybe by the end of the year, those guys have put Khalif Raymond in the backseat.
74:19But he's not doing anything to lose his role.
74:22And they're designing plays for him. And the plays are working.
74:25So it's hard to see that changing. Let's go to the running back position here.
74:29Let's start with Amarian Hampton, a guy that most of everybody was excited about this season.
74:33He is facing the Seattle Seahawks. It's been pretty hit or miss so far for Amarian Hampton.
74:38Where are you going to have him ranked this week?
74:41So I have him at RB24. So you're probably playing him, right?
74:44Like I doubt you're going to have enough options that you're going to have guys that you can go above him on this one.
74:51Unless you grab somebody like a Chuba Hubbard a little later in your draft, then absolutely I'd be playing him over him.
74:57But right now, Hampton is another guy that I wrote up as a sell this week.
75:02I want to try to get off of this train as well.
75:05This offense looks terrible. And you want to give them time to figure it out.
75:09And maybe they will, right? Maybe Mike McDaniel will get this sorted and this offense will start humming around midseason.
75:15But we talked about it on the Panic Meter episode.
75:17One of the biggest problems here is you look at this schedule, right?
75:21Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, Ravens, all sandwiched around a bye in week seven.
75:25First up here is the Seahawks. That is a very tough matchup for a back who now is not really getting as
75:31much work as we might have thought before the season.
75:34Not only do you have Keaton Mitchell getting involved, now you have Kamani Vidal also working in, right?
75:39So Hampton only running a route at 16% of the dropbacks in week three.
75:43This is a problem. And he's managed to come through thanks to some touchdowns in the first couple weeks here.
75:48But I think you got to sell. You have to look at what you have right now.
75:53You're obviously disappointed that he hasn't come through with what's called second round value because that's where you were drafting him.
75:59I think even if you're taking a loss in that trade, get rid of him.
76:03Get somebody else who might have more upside, might be able to come along and give you more as the season goes along here.
76:10Because I don't think Hampton is going to be the guy that we hoped that he could potentially emerge as that like breakout kind of second year back.
76:18This offense doesn't look like it's going to support that.
76:20And now the way they're using him and deploying him with these three different backs involved, that's going to make it very
76:27difficult for him to come through in these games.
76:29He's not going to continue to survive just on these touchdowns.
76:32Yeah, and I mean this week against Seattle, you don't have a receiving workload.
76:36As you mentioned, 16% of the routes, you do not have a floor and it's a really brutal spot.
76:41So yeah, I think running back 24, that is fair.
76:44I'm asking you two questions. You can't really call him a sit though because the state of the running back position at the moment.
76:51And I mean, I'm in some leagues like this, Harmon, where my RB2 or my flex is pretty rough.
76:56If you had a guy like Hampton, you'd actually be pretty happy.
76:59He's got a shot to score a touchdown, maybe get lucky, breaks a run.
77:03So it's like a reluctant start. I don't know if that's an option here, but this is like a reluctant start for me.
77:10Well, if it's a flex play though, you probably have a better option at the receiver position than Amorian Hampton.
77:15But yeah, maybe, you know, if we're going, maybe, I don't know.
77:19It is tough. Let me ask you two questions to level set rest of season for Hampton and then also this week.
77:25Like rest of season, would you rather have Basial Tootin or Amorian Hampton?
77:28It's very close. I think I'd rather have Tootin.
77:31Yeah. Because like, again, I still think that we're going to see more from Tootin.
77:35I think more opportunity will come for him. He's trending in the right direction versus Hampton's kind of trending in the wrong direction.
77:42Right. The workload, I think, is going to go up for Tootin and we're already seeing the workload maybe go away from Hampton.
77:48Plus, it's like, do I want to be invested in what the charters look like right now or what the Jags look like right now?
77:55And they seem to just be more incentivized to get more of Tootin.
77:59So, yeah, I think, again, if you're looking for a one-to-one trade, I don't know if you could get it.
78:04But I actually think fantasy-wise they've been close enough.
78:07I think you could maybe get the Hampton for Tootin swap.
78:10Okay. This week, Braylon Allen off the waiver wire subbing in for Brees Hall against the Chicago Bears.
78:15I have him ranked ahead of Amorian Hampton. Would you play Braylon Allen or Amorian Hampton this week?
78:20I would definitely have Allen above him. I think I have Allen at RB20, I believe.
78:24Yeah, for sure. Would be happy to play him for the next couple weeks.
78:28I think he's looked really good in limited usage.
78:31I think that offense has looked decent. Yeah, Braylon Allen is certainly somebody that I'd prefer to play over him.
78:36All right. Let's go to another running back here.
78:39Ramadre Stevenson at the Buffalo Bills. Man. Are you willing to find new and creative ways to be invested in the Patriots offense?
78:45Um, Justin Boone. Well, I will admit in our expert league where I am so starved for an RB2 at the moment
78:51that last week I had to start Alvin Kamara.
78:54I have been looking for potential trade candidates, running backs who are sitting on people's benches that maybe have a chance to
79:00turn things around that I could buy low on.
79:02And I've been eyeing Ramadre Stevenson a little bit as a guy whose volume bounced right back last week after having the fumbles in week two.
79:10He comes to the phone. We probably comes right back, gets out there and gets the same workload.
79:15The results were not there and the matchup was very difficult.
79:18So I'm trying to talk myself into sending a trade offer for a guy like Stevenson.
79:22But every time I think about it, I just come to the same conclusion where this is a split backfield, another offense
79:28that's not really working at the moment. Let's face it.
79:31And we don't know when things are going to turn around and they're going against the bills this week.
79:36And I worry that they're going to fall down big time in this game.
79:40I don't worry as a bills fan. I worry as a guy who's talking about Ramadre Stevenson right now, if we're trying
79:46to find value in this backfield, um, the matchup is not terrible.
79:50That bills defense can be got, but Stevenson right now, Vegas is not believing it.
79:54Eight and a half carries 31 and a half rushing yards, 18.5 receiving yards.
79:58That's what they have him set at the moment.
80:00It doesn't look great. So he is just down in that RB or bust, you know, or touchdown or bust RB three territory.
80:07He's got to be a sit. You have to be able to find a better option than this right now.
80:12Harmon. Yeah. I don't have either Patriots running back ranked inside my top 24 backs this week.
80:17And I'm not sure when the next time that's going to happen.
80:20Uh, the Patriots rank third in time of possession per drive and they rank 31st in points per or excuse me, no
80:2711th in time of possession per drive, 32nd in points per drive.
80:30So congratulations, taking a lot of time to go nowhere are the new England Patriots.
80:34Okay. Last running back. We're going to talk about speaking of the waiver wire, Ollie Gordon at Minnesota.
80:39Boone. I mean, I, I have been shocked to see some of the bids for Ollie Gordon.
80:44Although I guess I shouldn't be actually, cause we posted our, uh, or the, our fantasy handle posted our, our waiver wire segment, uh, on, on, on Twitter.
80:52And people were after you about your, your bid recommendation for Ollie Gordon.
80:55And I was like, what do you, I think maybe the recommendation is don't bid a bunch of money on Ollie Gordon.
81:01Well, guess what? All those people did bid a bunch of money on Holly Gordon.
81:06And so did the people in some of the leagues I'm in, uh, yikes.
81:09People are very excited about getting invested in a Dolphins backfield.
81:13That wasn't even good when Devon HN was there and they're playing against the Minnesota Vikings this week, Boone.
81:18So how excited are you about Ollie Gordon as a flex play?
81:21And we talked about it on Monday and I wrote about it in my waiver wire column that we're not even totally
81:27sure that Ollie Gordon is going to be the back you want in this backfield that Jalen Wright was hurt last week.
81:33That's why Gordon got the amount of work that he did.
81:36And now Jalen Wright is back at practice and we'll see if he can play this week.
81:41But if he's out there at worst, this is going to be some form of committee with both backs getting involved, but
81:47there's a chance that right gets significantly more work.
81:50And that's why I had very low bids on them.
81:53That's why I had the bids pretty close as well.
81:55I was shocked, man. When I saw some of those comments and some of the people replying to that, that were saying,
82:02you know, 80% bids and stuff like that, that people were putting out there to get Ollie Gordon, just a terrible mistake.
82:08And we were not directing them in that way at all whatsoever.
82:11And then the other problem is this matchup. You're going against the Vikings defense.
82:15Brian Flores' defense is going to cause tons of problems.
82:18I mean, they cause problems for good offenses. They're going to be a nightmare for this offense this week.
82:23So this is more of a wait and see.
82:26You were picking up these backs in the Dolphins backfield to see how it plays out.
82:30Maybe you get lucky and you end up with a starting running back on an NFL team, maybe as the season goes
82:36along, but you weren't picking them up unless you're incredibly desperate to try to put them in your lineup this week.
82:42So I am sitting him. I have him as my RB 36.
82:45So kind of well off that range that you're considering guys in the flex, unless your team is really struggling.
82:51And I'm in some spots, like I mentioned, where I have to play some of these deeper running backs.
82:56But Ollie Gordon is not somebody that's getting in any of my lineups this week.
83:00Yeah, the Dolphins are 31st in rushing EPA. The Vikings are second in rushing EPA allowed.
83:05So congratulations. That's the guy we're starting here. I don't think so.
83:08The Vikings are obviously the Dolphins are also projected for 14 points, lowest in the league against the Minnesota Vikings this week.
83:14So yeah, not really the backfield that you want to be shopping in right now.
83:18Okay, let's finish at the tight end position. We're going back to the Bears.
83:22Colson Loveland versus the Jets. Boone, is there anything that would indicate that Colson Loveland is about to go off here other
83:29than Colson Loveland was very good as a rookie and he's a full-time player in an offense that we really like?
83:34Like make the case for the Colson Loveland rebound here.
83:37I can't. I mean, if we want to have fun with it, he had zero yards in week one and three yards
83:43in week two and 31 yards last week. So he's headed in the right direction here.
83:48Trending up. Maybe we're just going up and up and we'll see it exponentially.
83:52What do you say? I don't know, man. Three yards in week two and 31 last week.
83:56So he 10X'd his week two yards. Yeah. So he's going to set some records this week, potentially.
84:01It goes back to the Dunes, I think. This is going to be split.
84:05Will it get better? Yes. I think last week it seemed like Ben Johnson was trying to get him going early in
84:11the game because they were going to him a bunch.
84:14And if he had found the end zone, if he had reached out and got a touchdown, yeah, that would have been better for his fantasy day.
84:22But I don't think it would have really changed the situation at the moment, which is they're thrown to four different guys.
84:28And he is not that featured part of the offense that we thought he was going to be that he was down
84:34the stretch last year when he was averaging double digit targets per game.
84:38He's not getting anywhere close to that right now.
84:40So no, I have him down at tight end 14.
84:43I mean, we've talked about I know Josh's big thing has been that, you know, you can start tight ends in the
84:49flex right now because there's so many good tight ends.
84:52I would not be trying to start Colston Loveland in my flex.
84:55Let's see him do something. Let's see a couple more weeks and where this is going before we're putting him in our lineups.
85:02I think that's the right answer here. You know, fantasy points data has a stat average depth of route.
85:07And when you look at the it's like where the first break occurs on the routes.
85:11I think it's interesting looking at receivers. And so with tight ends here, Brock Bowers after one game, these are guys who
85:18have run 30 plus routes in the season. He's number one, which makes sense because, you know, he essentially was used as
85:24a wide receiver like the X receiver for the Raiders last week.
85:27Then it's a pretty big drop off to Mark Andrews at second.
85:30Then it's Terrence Ferguson. Then it's Noah Gray. Then it's Colson Loveland.
85:34Then it's Kyle Pitts. And it's these guys are running a lot of downfield routes at the tight end position, which is
85:40going to make it very boom or bust. You know, guys like Harold Fannin exist a little closer to the line of scrimmage.
85:46Some of these other players that are Travis Kelsey, who's made some plays down the field.
85:51He's much lower. He's 23rd in this metric. You know, Sam Laporta is 26th.
85:55Trey McBride, who just piles up catches, is 29th.
85:57So George Kittle, 35th. Like you can go down the list of these more consistently productive players.
86:02And it's they're not this high in terms of the depth at which their route breaks.
86:06I think that has been a part of the story here for Colson Loveland.
86:10And I think it's been a little hit or miss for Colson Loveland as an individual player whenever I watch this team as well.
86:17But the fact that he's running these downfield routes, he's not getting the gimmies that a Luther Burton or Kalief Raymond is right now either.
86:24Yeah, totally. And the Jets, going back to your point earlier, like the Jets defense, a little bit better this year.
86:30They haven't allowed a tight end to top 44 yards against them.
86:33So it's not even like we can point to that as like, OK, other tight ends are going off.
86:38It's a good matchup for them. That's not the case either.
86:41So let's sit Loveland for now. Let's see how this develops over the next week or two.
86:46And then we can make a decision on that.
86:49All right. Last guy we're talking about here, Dalton Schultz, Texans tight end.
86:52And I'll say this, I will not be ranking Dalton Schultz as a tight end one now that Nico Collins is likely to be back this week.
87:00Do you feel differently on that one? No, not at all.
87:03This was the easiest one to call here. Nico Collins looks like he's coming back.
87:07And even with Nico Collins out last week, I mean, the Colts saw the game film from the week before and how many passes went his way.
87:15And then they just kind of took him out of the game last week, right?
87:19He didn't have another big target total. So yeah, it's not that hard to take Dalton Schultz out of a game.
87:25And unfortunately, when Nico Collins is playing, he just goes back to being like a deep streamer type at tight end.
87:30All right. There you have it. Those are your first flex fit check players feeling pretty good about where some of these
87:37guys are feeling not so good about where some of the other ones are.
87:40Boone, I'm feeling very good that we got you back on the show two times a week, my friend.
87:46It's good to see you decked out and all your verse here, too.
87:49What a what a what a great guy for the sponsor.
87:52Hey, I love it, man. This hat has been like my go to hat ever since that Buffalo show.
87:58So shout out to verse and shout out to you, man.
88:01I love doing shows with you. And I jumped at the chance here to get on with you a second time every week like we did last year.
88:09So it's going to be fun. It's gonna be really fun season.
88:12Hell yeah. I am very much very, very happy to have Boone back on the show two times a week.
88:18I'm I'm darn right giddy about it. I'll tell you that what I'm also giddy about is we got a big show coming your way tomorrow.
88:25Josh Norris joins me for our weekly preview on Thursday.
88:28That is going to be live right here at 4 p.m.
88:31Eastern. Subscribe to the YouTube. Oh, gee. Subscribe to the YouTube channel.
88:34I really blew it on the read there. Subscribe to the channel, though.
88:38Make me feel better about the fact that I can't talk at the end of the show.
88:42We'll see you guys tomorrow, 4 p.m. Eastern. Until then, we are out.

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