Yahoo Fantasy Forecast

Facing a massive shootout with tied-for-highest projected point total on the week (51.5); Lions implied total is 27. Matt Harmon ranked Williams as WR25 preseason but expects him to finish WR5 while never being ranked WR25 during the season, oscillating between WR40-WR40. This is the boom week to chase ceiling in late primetime game.

Start confidently in Week 4 vs. Carolina; Panthers have both starting corners on IR for extended absence, creating massive shootout potential. Lions-Panthers game tied for highest projected point total (51.5) with Lions at 27 implied points. Weather may dampen slightly, but boom week setup is ideal for Williams despite season-long bust concerns due to Sam LaPorte's health and offensive depth.

Deshaun Watson is still playing really shaky despite good results the last two weeks; Matt Harmon doesn't trust him and expects a low-scoring game (38.5 point over/under) from the Steelers side, suggesting limited upside for Pittsburgh's offense.

Pat Freiermuth has strong prop value against the Browns, who have allowed eight catches on 11 targets for 108 yards to tight ends with a 72.7% success rate; anytime touchdown is +390, first touchdown is +1400. The Steelers-Browns matchup is a tight end and running back game in a good way.

Harold Fannin is mostly a likely fantasy starter; the Steelers allow the fewest tight end attempts and yards allowed with only one successful play on tight ends this year, making them the best matchup in the week so far.

Denzel Boston is a sneaky start against the Steelers, who play a ton of zone and cover-4 defense; when they play man coverage, they get fried because they lack cornerback talent on the outside, which leans into Boston's strengths. Matt Harmon describes him as a hard charge despite last week's poor result in a weird game.

Mentioned in context of tight end targets and Steelers' defense; Steelers have Jalen Ramsey in the slot which helps them defend tight ends effectively.

Faces perfect matchup against Steelers on Thursday night; Steelers have allowed fourth-highest success rate against outside targets (62.62% success rate, 123 passing rating, 27-37 completions for 394 yards and 3 TDs on outside targets this year); Boston has run 91% of his routes from the outside with 8 receptions on 14 targets for 186 yards (tenth most in NFL); height/weight differential versus DBs is top-ten extreme on record; Matt Harmon is all in on Boston this week due to matchup.

Made a mistake and was benched, with Jeremy Bernard tossed back in; suggests the Packers will continue a will-they-won't-they approach with the receiver room all season long under Aaron Rodgers.

The Giants' offensive scheme suggests the coaching staff does not trust Cam Ward; they employ a run-run-pass sequence repeatedly, indicating a lack of confidence in his ability to execute the offense, which constrains his fantasy upside.

Matt Harmon expresses serious concern about Cam Ward's fantasy viability, noting that his statistical performance has been 'so, so bad' in both his first and second seasons; he does not believe it will improve this year and questions whether head coach Brian Daboll will survive the season given the team's poor vibes and performance.

Matt Harmon expects the Eagles offense to be a 'high wire act' dependent on Hurts' individual performance; the system is not designed to be stable or predictable, making it difficult to project consistent fantasy output.

Calcaterra is described as 'nothing right now' and characterized as a two-year project; he is not expected to contribute meaningfully to the Eagles' offense in the near term.

Mundt is described as 'fine' in the Eagles' tight end rotation, suggesting he is a depth option without significant fantasy upside in the current offensive system.

Waller has taken a step back as a blocker, which is a concern in the Eagles' offensive system that emphasizes tight end blocking and edge-setting; this limits his role in the run-heavy scheme they want to employ.

Matt Harmon mentions Cam Ward as one of the quarterbacks to be discussed in the segment on QBs needing to be fixed in fantasy, though specific analysis is cut off in the transcript.

Matt Harmon criticizes the Eagles' screen pass execution, noting Zach Hurts (a 35-year-old backup who tore his ACL in December) got 'his butt kicked' on a screen to Makai Lemon, one of 'a hundred failed screens to Makai Lemon,' illustrating the team's offensive struggles.

Matt Harmon mentions he is 'still hiding Devontae Smith' in the Eagles offense, suggesting caution with the receiver despite the team's three-receiver heavy scheme.

Matt Harmon discusses Jalen Hurts' ecosystem with the Eagles, noting the offense remains unchanged from the offseason: dead last in play action, no motion usage, and three-receiver heavy due to injuries. Harmon also highlights Hurts' tendency to predetermine throws, including a pick at the end of Monday night's game, suggesting quarterbacks need to be more willing to take short hitch and stop routes on the outside.

Matt Harmon notes that Ladd McConkey is playing well, though he emphasizes that most Chargers receivers require proof before trusting them given the team's offensive inconsistency.

Matt Harmon criticizes Herbert's decision-making, noting he threw to MVS (wearing number 13) on a play where other receivers were open, sarcastically suggesting Herbert may have mistaken MVS for Keenan Allen.

Matt Harmon is ready to see less of Quentin Johnston in the Chargers offense, preferring more snaps for Trey Harris instead.

Matt Harmon wants to see more of Trey Harris and less of Quentin Johnston; Harris looked good especially on out routes, and Harmon believes Herbert could have targeted Harris on a play where he threw to MVS instead.

Herbert's performance is concerning despite the Chargers' run game showing 10th-ranked success rate; Matt Harmon suggests Herbert needs to 'chill out or do something, go to meditation' and notes the Seahawks matchup this week is not favorable for getting right.

Matt Harmon notes that while Tua is widely acknowledged as a limited quarterback, Mike McDaniel's offense has been terrible both when Tua was unavailable in Miami and in L.A. with the Chargers, raising questions about whether Tua is the limiting factor or if the ecosystem/scheme is failing. This creates ambiguity about the sliding scale of responsibility between quarterback and system.

Matt Harmon characterizes Herbert as a "Herbert realist" rather than defender, noting his highs are legitimate but he plays too robotic and on-script, making poor decisions at critical moments. His interception in the end zone against the Bills on a C.J. Gardiner-Johnson deep safety in cover three is cited as egregious—a high school-level mistake throwing into a post route that was clearly disguised static cover three with no movement from the defender. Harmon emphasizes this is not a scheme problem but a quarterback execution issue; Herbert has had enough starts to know better than to throw into that coverage.

Hunter Henry is taking a noticeable step back in 2024. His average speed has declined from 10.55 mph in 2023 to 10.3 mph in 2024; his average route speed dropped from 12.2 mph in 2024 to 11.3 mph in 2024—nearly a full mile per hour decline. This isn't just eye test; next-gen stats confirm he's losing separation on all routes, not just at catch point. Matt Harmon describes him as the Eagles' 'steady Eddie' but notes the decline is tangible and measurable.

Wandale Robinson (5'9" with 29-inch arms) is being asked to run routes he can't execute effectively in the Cardinals' offense. Cam Ward threw to him on a play where the throw was catchable but Robinson's height and arm length prevented him from winning on the route, illustrating the mismatch between receiver size and route concepts.

Kyle Williams is misaligned in the Eagles' offense. His best production comes on over routes when in motion (like his best game against the Bucs last year), but he can't win vertically. Matt Harmon argues Williams should be the Z receiver, not the slot, and should be used over Pop Douglas given his skill set and the scheme's limitations.

Matt Harmon dropped Drake May in redraft fantasy this week and doesn't expect to regret it. The Eagles' offensive scheme is archaic and slow, with poor route concepts and receiver placement (Kyle Williams should be the Z receiver, not Pop Douglas). May is the youngest starting QB in the NFL trying to do too much in a bad situation, making mistakes and compounding the offense's structural issues.

A.J. Brown hasn't been available since the first half of week one, and the Eagles' offensive scheme was built around him in the X receiver position. His absence has directly contributed to the team's offensive struggles and poor results.

Matt Harmon notes that the Ravens have been repeatedly putting Zay Flowers at the three spot (slot), indicating a strategic focus on targeting him in that position.

Matt Harmon emphasizes that Week 4 against the Cowboys is the week to get Jalen Hurts going, as the Cowboys are the worst team against the slot. If Hurts doesn't have a big week against Dallas, Harmon questions what the Eagles offense is doing.

Matt Harmon notes that the Texans defense weakness undermines the original fantasy thesis for David Montgomery. The theory was that Montgomery would benefit from positive game scripts and nursing leads due to strong defense, but Texans defensive vulnerabilities at linebacker and safety mean they won't be one of the best defenses, limiting Montgomery's lead-nursing opportunities.

Matt Harmon identifies a big week from Nico Collins in Week 4 against the Dallas Cowboys as critical for the Texans offense; Collins is expected to play this week. The Texans are desperately in need of a strong performance from their receivers.

Matt Harmon has settled on Stroud in the quarterback 12 to 16 range for fantasy purposes; he notes that Stroud's actual play this year has matched that tier, and the stats bear that out. Harmon remains optimistic about Stroud's performance despite recent offensive struggles.

Stroud has been solid so far but is limited by his supporting cast; the Texans' receivers struggle to get open, constraining his ability to produce explosive plays. The offensive line and receiver separation issues are systemic problems beyond the quarterback's control.

Marks is viewed as a decent bench hold in fantasy despite the Texans' offensive struggles. The speaker suggests the team may try something different in the backfield, but Marks is not expected to dramatically improve the situation.

Matt Harmon flagged Montgomery as a sell-high candidate after Week 1 touchdowns; he doesn't fit the Texans' current offensive situation and should be traded if he scores again. Harmon also criticized Montgomery's decision-making on a failed fourth-and-one conversion, noting he bounced outside when he should have planted his foot and attacked the hole—a concerning miss for a back known for intelligent running.

Matt Harmon notes that C.J. Stroud's success rate is up this year and he's pushing the ball more; yards lost per sack has improved by over a yard, indicating he's getting the ball away quickly and stepping up in the pocket rather than drifting and scrambling excessively as in prior years; down-to-down play is better than perceived, though the Texans are plagued by catastrophic mistakes like failed fourth downs and red zone turnovers.