12 biggest fantasy storylines heading into training camp

Thomas is being deployed as the X receiver in the Jaguars' McShay-style offense, which typically involves more vertical routes and deeper role; this differs from his rookie season when he operated more as an off-ball player with yards-after-catch opportunities, creating uncertainty about whether his role will support his fantasy upside despite strong OTA performance.

Kenneth Gainwell's addition to the Buccaneers narrows Bucky Irving's role significantly. Irving loses goal-line work (retained by Sean Tucker) and pass-catching opportunities to Gainwell, who offers both rushing and receiving upside. The backfield is now a 1A/1B hot-hand situation. Irving's profile—a shifty, smaller running back with five games of 15+ rushing attempts in his rookie season—suggests the Buccaneers are concerned about workload durability. Harmon worries the team won't lean into giving Irving a big workload, making him more of a boom-bust RB3 similar to JK Dobbins' role (two-down grinder between the 20s) rather than a league-winning asset.

Todd Bowles initially stated Bucky Irving might not return until summer or fall, causing concern among fantasy players. However, Irving recently told local reporters he will be present for the start of training camp, alleviating immediate injury concerns. The bigger issue is role uncertainty due to Kenneth Gainwell's addition rather than Irving's health status.

Williams is not the most accurate passer, especially downfield, and Ben Johnson wants to add structure to his out-of-structure tendencies; this favors quicker throws and receivers like Luther Burden who operate in short-area routes, while deeper-route specialists like Roma Odunze may see reduced effectiveness.

The Packers have expressed interest in implementing Chris Brooks more into the offense, suggesting increased opportunity for the running back in the team's backfield plans.

Chris Rodriguez has very few receptions in his career, limiting his pass-catching upside compared to Basil Tootin. While Rodriguez could be a value pick in the seventh round at his current ADP (round 10-11), he lacks the receiving profile needed to be a league-winning fantasy asset. Harmon characterizes Rodriguez as a 'small win' rather than a 'big win' in fantasy drafts, making him less attractive than Tootin despite potential availability.

Chris Rodriguez underwent offseason foot surgery during the offseason, with local Jacksonville reports indicating the procedure occurred. Speculation suggests it may be a Jones fracture, which has historically caused significant production drops for players like Desmond Bryant, Sammy Watkins, and Julio Jones when returning mid-season. The injury raises questions about Rodriguez's availability for training camp and his workload management early in the season.

Christian Watson received a big contract from the Packers and is a focal point of the new 11-personnel, tempo-based offense; however, there is debate in the fantasy community about whether he is an 'explosive play merchant' or a complete receiver who can fit into an offense and execute all route types.

Christian Watson averaged 2.67 yards per route run when Romeo Dobbs was on the field in 2024, dropping to 2.19 yards per route run when Dobbs was off the field; this suggests Watson's efficiency may be impacted by the loss of Dobbs and the Packers' receiver rotation changes.

Watson's best usage comes when operating as the Z receiver on the move rather than as a stationary X receiver; when paired with Romeo Dobbs (the sacrificial X), Watson averages 2.67 yards per route run and is targeted on 25% of routes versus 2.19 yards and 17% targeting when Dobbs is off field. The key to Watson's upside in 2024 is whether the Packers deploy him in the Z role that suits his skill set, which remains unclear heading into training camp.

Matt Harmon expresses concern about Christian Watson's role in the Packers offense, noting that Watson was primarily used as a movement Z player last year. Despite Watson's higher route depth, Harmon is worried about what the Packers might do with Watson's role going forward, making him less bullish on Watson compared to Jaden Reed.

Matt Harmon is fading Cortland Sutton's situation due to uncertainty around the Broncos' wide receiver three role. If Pat Bryant becomes the WR3, Harmon believes Bryant's intermediate route tree (not a deep receiver) will push Sutton deeper downfield, potentially limiting his role compared to a scenario where Troy Franklin (a vertical receiver) is the WR3. Harmon projects Sutton at approximately 750 yards and five to six touchdowns, but notes the ceiling is difficult to project given the environmental uncertainty around the receiver room composition.

Zane Dahani notes that Sutton has been Denver's prototypical versatile receiver, deployed at all three levels of the route tree. Dahani wrote about Sutton in his route-depth article and observes that Sutton operates best at intermediate and deep levels as a big-body receiver. Sutton's role is being contextualized as Denver adds Jalen Waddle to the offense.

Moore was placed in an odd role that didn't necessarily fit the Bears offense last year; with Luther Burden now having a more distinct slot role, the Bears can better distribute targets and roles among their receivers.

Boston is viewed as the big-bodied receiver the Colts want to deploy, competing for playing time with Josh Downs, Isaiah Bond, and Jerry Judy; the team may use 12 personnel packages, creating uncertainty about target distribution among the pass-catching group.

Matt Harmon is 'really into' Devontae Smith and projects him to outscore Makai Lemon in roughly 8 out of 10 season simulations, indicating strong confidence in Smith's production despite the Eagles' offensive overhaul.

Bond has looked good for the Colts and is competing for playing time in a crowded receiver room; he could swap between slot and Z receiver roles, but his exact role and target share remain uncertain heading into training camp.

Hurts will operate under center and run more play action in Philadelphia's new offensive system, a significant departure from his previous role; the offense will attack the middle of the field more and employ a wide zone blocking scheme on runs, requiring Hurts to execute concepts he hasn't regularly performed before.

Zane Dahani prefers James Cook over Saquon Barkley in the second round due to higher ceiling upside; Cook is close to Barkley in ADP but offers more explosive potential.

Pete Carmichael's hiring as offensive coordinator signals a shift toward increased pass-catching usage for Cook; Carmichael has a history with Alvin Kamara and LaDainian Tomlinson of deploying running backs in pass-heavy roles. Cook's college profile lends itself more to pass-catching than rushing. Current route share sits around 30-35%, but Carmichael's past schemes feature 50-60% route share for primary backs. Adding 1-2 targets per game while losing 2-3 early-down rushes would net approximately 1-2 additional fantasy points per game, elevating Cook to roughly 20-21 PPR points per game—a top-three running back pace. If Cook reaches a full Kamara/LT-style role with 60% route share, Matt Harmon would draft him as RB3 over Jonathan Taylor.

If Cook's receiving role expands as expected, his fantasy ceiling rises significantly. Matt Harmon's math shows that adding 1-2 targets per game while losing 2-3 rushes would result in approximately 20-21 PPR points per game in full PPR, which would have ranked as RB5 last season but Cook is currently going at RB6. Harmon emphasizes Cook has a solid floor from rushing alone, and the pass-catching upside makes him a critical player to monitor heading into training camp.

Pete Carmichael's hiring as offensive coordinator is bullish for Cook's pass-catching role; Carmichael has a history of involving running backs in the passing game (Alvin Kamara, LaDainian Tomlinson), and Cook's college profile lends itself more to pass-catching than his current usage, suggesting increased target opportunities.

Jaden Reed received a big contract from the Packers and is expected to expand beyond slot-only usage; both analysts believe Reed can run outbreaking routes, corner routes, and deeper patterns similar to Makai Lemon, and they would like to see him get more opportunities beyond traditional slot receiver duties.

Reed's fantasy outlook may improve in 2024 due to the Packers' offensive changes; the new coaching staff wants to play with more tempo, avoid rotating players out, and stay in 11 personnel to keep Reed on the field as a dominant pass catcher. This represents a more favorable deployment scenario for Reed compared to the past two seasons.

Matt Harmon expects Jaden Reed's route participation to increase from approximately 65% to around 75% as the Packers emphasize 11 personnel to keep Reed on the field as a dominant pass catcher. The team's preference for tempo and staying in 11 personnel rather than mixing in 12 and 13 personnel should create more favorable fantasy opportunities for Reed compared to the past two seasons.

Matt Harmon is bullish on Jaden Reed at his current draft cost, citing concerns about Christian Watson's role and the likelihood that Reed will have a shallower route depth than Watson. Harmon also expects increased target volume naturally flowing to Reed in situations where the Packers play from behind or in chaos, beyond just explosive plays. He views Reed as a buy-back candidate after last year's injury-plagued season.

Matt Harmon is bullish on Waddle's ADP, noting his price was cheaper multiple weeks prior but is starting to rise. Harmon compares Waddle favorably to Chris Olave at similar draft cost and flags him as a league-winner candidate. Harmon emphasizes Waddle was overshadowed by Tyreek Hill in Miami but is a talented player in his own right with significant opportunity in Denver's new offensive scheme.

Zane Dahani reports that Denver's new offensive coordinator Davis Webb plans to deploy Waddle in short-area and intermediate routes—screens, drag routes, and slants—rather than as a deep threat to take the top off the defense. Dahani wrote about Waddle in his route-depth article and notes this deployment aligns with Denver's offensive preferences. Dahani is excited about the usage patterns emerging from camp.

Davis Webb, Denver's new offensive coordinator, compared Waddle to Stefan Diggs when Diggs was traded to the Bills in year three of his contract—a year-three receiver on a second contract who is a proven talent that people still underestimate. Harmon made this same Diggs comparison when the trade was announced and views it as validation of Waddle's upside in Denver's system.

Judy is expected to be the Colts' wide receiver one but may not finish with the team's top statistical output; he'll operate between slot and outside positions, similar to how the Ravens use Zay Flowers, creating a more distributed target share in the offense.

Downs is being deployed in motion and outside in two-wide-receiver sets, which could allow him to lead the Colts in targets; his route share has historically been in the 60s, and this new usage pattern—getting him off the line of scrimmage—could significantly boost his target volume and fantasy upside.

The Packers are shifting to a more 11-personnel, tempo-based offense that may lean more on Jordan Love's passing game and take some pressure off Josh Jacobs, who is getting older; this represents a potential decrease in Jacobs' workload compared to previous seasons.

Matt Harmon identifies Josh Jacobs as having multiple question marks heading into training camp: an unresolved legal situation, knee injuries from last year, age concerns, and the Packers' stated interest in implementing Marshawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks more into the offense. Harmon views Jacobs as part of a broader uncertainty across the Packers' skill position group.

Kenneth Gainwell is positioned as the better fantasy pick in the Buccaneers backfield compared to Bucky Irving. Gainwell offers both pass-catching and rushing upside, with demonstrated ability as a runner for the Steelers (better than Rashad White). He was paid good money by Tampa Bay, signaling organizational confidence. Gainwell's receiving profile makes him valuable in pass-down situations, and he's going at a similar ADP to Basil Tootin. Harmon prefers Gainwell's cost-to-upside ratio over Irving's limited role.

Zane Dahani prefers Kenneth Walker over Saquon Barkley in the second round due to higher ceiling upside; Walker is a talented running back in an Andy Reid offense that historically produces elite running back value (Damian Williams, LeSean McCoy, Jamal Charles), though he needs to be in a featured role.

Ben Johnson's public endorsement of Burden as a dynamic playmaker who breaks tackles and can be trusted in short situations is bullish; Burden fits better with Johnson's structured offense and Caleb Williams' preference for quick, accurate throws, making him a more favorable fantasy option than Roma Odunze despite higher ADP, though he needs to expand beyond designer routes to meet expectations.

Lemon is expected to operate as the Z receiver to start the year and move to the slot in 11 personnel; Matt Harmon believes the Eagles' new Packers-style offense with outbreaking routes off play action aligns well with Lemon's skill set, particularly on sale concepts and explosive plays from both Z and slot positions.

Matt Harmon projects there is a scenario where Makai Lemon could outscore Devontae Smith this year if he hits the ground running; Harmon estimates this outcome at roughly 2 out of 10 simulations, acknowledging it's not zero but unlikely given his preference for Smith.

The Packers have expressed interest in implementing Marshawn Lloyd more into the offense, suggesting increased opportunity for the running back in the team's backfield plans.

Zane Dahani views Matthew Golden as a dart-throw value pick in the Packers' new 11-personnel, tempo-based offense; despite a mixed rookie year statistically, Dahani saw film evidence of Golden being open frequently with Jordan Love missing him, comparing the situation to Quinton Johnston's rookie struggles and noting that receivers develop at different rates.

Matthew Golden is expected to be the number two outside receiver for the Packers in 2025, likely ahead of Jaden Reed; Matt Harmon believes Golden would have to 'absolutely flop in camp' to lose this role, indicating he is the presumed starter at that position.

Golden could assume the sacrificial X receiver role in the Packers offense, which would free Christian Watson to operate as the Z receiver on the move. Golden showed decent release moves against press coverage last season, which could make him effective in the X role. The key question is whether Golden or Watson ends up as the X versus Z receiver, which will determine both players' upside.

Matt Harmon likes where Matthew Golden is going in drafts and views him as cheap enough to warrant a shot, though Harmon is more bullish on Jaden Reed at cost.

Washington is positioned to operate in the slot with a run-after-catch emphasis, similar to how Liam Cohen deployed Chris Godwin in 2024; he has elite ball-in-hand talent and could exceed Godwin's yards-after-catch production, making him one of two potential 1200-yard fantasy breakouts for Jacksonville alongside Brian Thomas Jr., though his exact route depth remains uncertain.

Matt Harmon discusses Pat Bryant as a potential wide receiver three for the Broncos whose role definition will impact both Cortland Sutton and Jalen Waddell. Bryant is characterized as an intermediate-route receiver, not a deep vertical receiver, which would affect how the Broncos distribute targets among their top three receivers. The specific role Bryant assumes will dictate whether Sutton gets pushed deeper or maintains intermediate-route opportunities.

The Ravens are still counting on Bateman and will evaluate his performance in training camp before making final decisions on the Diggs signing; Bateman's role and health remain uncertain, but the team is not abandoning him.

Odunze's role emphasizes deeper routes and verticality, which is less ideal for Caleb Williams' accuracy limitations and Ben Johnson's preference for quick throws; his role is less favorable than Luther Burden's despite being a better overall football player, and weather concerns in Chicago late-season could further limit his deep-route effectiveness.

Romeo Dobbs was let go by the Packers in the offseason as part of their receiver rotation overhaul; his departure is notable because Christian Watson's efficiency (2.67 yards per route run) drops when Dobbs is off the field, suggesting Dobbs' presence had a positive impact on Watson's production.

Dobbs functions as a sacrificial X receiver in the Packers offense; Christian Watson averages 2.67 yards per route run when Dobbs is on the field versus 2.19 when off the field, and is targeted on 25% of routes with Dobbs on field versus 17% when Dobbs is off. The theory is that Dobbs occupies the stationary X role, freeing Watson to operate as the Z receiver on the move.

Barkley faces uncertainty in Philadelphia's new zone blocking scheme, which differs fundamentally from the man-gap scheme he ran under Jeff Stoutland; zone blocking requires different vision and cutback lane recognition, and Barkley reportedly consulted Todd Gurley for feedback on operating in this system, raising questions about whether he needs external guidance to adapt.

Zane Dahani prefers James Cook and Kenneth Walker over Barkley in the second round due to higher ceiling upside, though Barkley remains a solid second-round floor play with known production; the choice depends on whether you prioritize floor (Barkley) or ceiling (Cook, Walker).

Savion Williams was drafted by the Packers as a wide receiver but profiles as a project player similar to Jaden Reed; he is not expected to contribute significantly in the immediate term.

Sean Tucker retains goal-line work in the Buccaneers backfield, limiting Bucky Irving's scoring opportunity. Tucker's role as the short-yardage specialist is expected to continue, further narrowing Irving's path to fantasy relevance.

Diggs remains unsigned with five options on the table; Commanders and Ravens are the two most likely destinations, with Commanders at 50% probability and Ravens at 25%, plus a small chance of Rams or other teams; if he signs with the Commanders, he could be a high target-earner over Terry McLaurin, while a Ravens move would be cleaner from a fantasy perspective with Zay Flowers as the clear top tier.

If Diggs signs with the Commanders, McLaurin could see reduced target share; Diggs' operating style and route tree could make him the higher target-earner if both receive equal routes, though McLaurin remains a solid option in the offense.

Hunter's presence on the field reduces target opportunities for Jaguars pass catchers; he had his best game on film before injury last year, but the team's usage of him as a receiver rather than in his optimal role limits his fantasy value and impacts the target distribution for other receivers.

Matt Harmon identifies Troy Franklin as a potential wide receiver three for the Broncos who operates as a vertical receiver. In contrast to Pat Bryant's intermediate route tree, Franklin's vertical role would allow Cortland Sutton to maintain more intermediate opportunities and Jalen Waddell to focus on short-area touches. Franklin's specific route profile is relevant to how the Broncos' target distribution shapes up among their top receivers.

Tucker Craft is coming off from injury and is part of the Packers' pass catcher group that has multiple question marks heading into training camp.

If Diggs signs with the Ravens, Flowers remains the clear top-tier receiver in the offense; Diggs would be a complementary piece, making the Ravens move cleaner from a fantasy perspective with Flowers maintaining his primary target role.