NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Thursday, June 25, 2026

RB Jonathan Taylor is hoping for an early extension as he heads into the final year of his contract, per @​HolderStephen "When Taylor faced a similar scenario in 2023, it resulted in a contract standoff that lasted two months." (via @​espn)

QB C.J. Stroud and the Texans reportedly "aren't close" on a contract extension, per @​Djbienaime "With how negotiations are currently going, it's gearing up to be a prove-it season for Stroud." (via @​espn)

Okonkwo SZN is almost upon us 🤫 (📸: @​Commanders)

Draft Josh Downs. Name your team "Downs with the sickness". Watch him go for 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns. Fantasy football doesn't have to be hard.

Who else caught this in the 'Quarterback: Season 3' trailer? They did Flacco so dirty 😭 (via @​netflix)

OC claims offseason leap and 'different comfort level'; community dismisses as typical pre-season spin. Top comment mocks: 'Breaking: Texans QB and OC hope to keep their job.' Stroud threw 4 INTs in recent playoff game, fueling skepticism about whether practice improvements translate. Some see value at depressed ADP in superflex (late-round pickup, 'price is very low'), but majority cite 4-INT playoff outing as disqualifying. One comment: 'If someone tells you a player has made great strides in practice, just laugh. You don't take a leap during the offseason.' Debate over whether offensive line/broken offense or QB decision-making is root cause; one defender notes 'offense didn't do him a...

Colston Loveland at TE University 👀

Tom Brady says Fernando Mendoza carries Peyton Manning-level expectations entering the NFL. "That path is harder than the path I took. Peyton, if he failed, everyone saw it right away. He had to take that on, and he superseded all those expectations. And I love that about him." (via @​WeAreTheOverlap)

Highest first-read target shares on plays that DON'T include motion [min. 25 targets, since 2021] 1. Garrett Wilson 2025 - 59.1% 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 - 51.9% 3. A.J. Brown 2024 - 48.5% 4. Davante Adams 2023 - 44.0% 5. Ja'Marr Chase 2025 - 43.4% @​FantasyPtsData

Highest first-read target shares on plays that DON'T include motion [min. 25 targets, since 2021] 1. Garrett Wilson 2025 - 59.1% 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 - 51.9% 3. A.J. Brown 2024 - 48.5% 4. Davante Adams 2023 - 44.0% 5. Ja'Marr Chase 2025 - 43.4% @​FantasyPtsData

Highest first-read target shares on plays that DON'T include motion [min. 25 targets, since 2021] 1. Garrett Wilson 2025 - 59.1% 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 - 51.9% 3. A.J. Brown 2024 - 48.5% 4. Davante Adams 2023 - 44.0% 5. Ja'Marr Chase 2025 - 43.4% @​FantasyPtsData

Highest first-read target shares on plays that DON'T include motion [min. 25 targets, since 2021] 1. Garrett Wilson 2025 - 59.1% 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 - 51.9% 3. A.J. Brown 2024 - 48.5% 4. Davante Adams 2023 - 44.0% 5. Ja'Marr Chase 2025 - 43.4% @​FantasyPtsData

Jets YPRRs in 2025: Garrett Wilson Motion: 1.19 No Motion: 2.70 Breece Hall Motion: 2.03 No Motion: 0.63 Mason Taylor Motion: 1.27 No Motion: 0.85 Tanner Engstrand deployed one of the highest motion rates. But did that funnel targets away from Garrett Wilson? @​FantasyPtsData

Jets YPRRs in 2025: Garrett Wilson Motion: 1.19 No Motion: 2.70 Breece Hall Motion: 2.03 No Motion: 0.63 Mason Taylor Motion: 1.27 No Motion: 0.85 Tanner Engstrand deployed one of the highest motion rates. But did that funnel targets away from Garrett Wilson? @​FantasyPtsData

Jets YPRRs in 2025: Garrett Wilson Motion: 1.19 No Motion: 2.70 Breece Hall Motion: 2.03 No Motion: 0.63 Mason Taylor Motion: 1.27 No Motion: 0.85 Tanner Engstrand deployed one of the highest motion rates. But did that funnel targets away from Garrett Wilson? @​FantasyPtsData

QB Caleb Williams' attempt to trademark "Iceman" has been initially refused, per @​mikerothstein Not because of NBA HOFer George Gervin, but due to a 1988 trademark filed by LaCrosse Footwear for insulated boots. Williams' application for an "Iceman" logo remains under review.

Definitely get the sentiment here but I would say there's a couple key differences in why we should be much more concerned with Harvey's year 1: Prospect Strength: All three of CMC, Mixon and Bell were significantly better prospects than Harvey, and were much younger coming out (all 21 as rookies while Harvey was 24!) Offensive Line: The 2025 Broncos had a much better OL (7th best PFF run blk grade), while all these other RBs OL units were below average to horrible (19th or worse). Dobbins ha...

Definitely get the sentiment here but I would say there's a couple key differences in why we should be much more concerned with Harvey's year 1: Prospect Strength: All three of CMC, Mixon and Bell were significantly better prospects than Harvey, and were much younger coming out (all 21 as rookies while Harvey was 24!) Offensive Line: The 2025 Broncos had a much better OL (7th best PFF run blk grade), while all these other RBs OL units were below average to horrible (19th or worse). Dobbins ha...

"Well considering a lot of the fantasy managers don't per se like me, I hope I can change your mind again. Be optimistic." Kyle Pitts on why fantasy managers should draft him this upcoming season 🏈 [Retweeted](

What record would this team have? QB - Bo Nix RB - Christian McCaffrey WR - Nico Collins WR - George Pickens TE - Tucker Kraft O Line - Detroit Lions Defense - Houston Texans Kicker - Cam Little

What record would this team have? QB - Bo Nix RB - Christian McCaffrey WR - Nico Collins WR - George Pickens TE - Tucker Kraft O Line - Detroit Lions Defense - Houston Texans Kicker - Cam Little

What record would this team have? QB - Bo Nix RB - Christian McCaffrey WR - Nico Collins WR - George Pickens TE - Tucker Kraft O Line - Detroit Lions Defense - Houston Texans Kicker - Cam Little

What record would this team have? QB - Bo Nix RB - Christian McCaffrey WR - Nico Collins WR - George Pickens TE - Tucker Kraft O Line - Detroit Lions Defense - Houston Texans Kicker - Cam Little

What record would this team have? QB - Bo Nix RB - Christian McCaffrey WR - Nico Collins WR - George Pickens TE - Tucker Kraft O Line - Detroit Lions Defense - Houston Texans Kicker - Cam Little

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

2025 PPG vs 2026 ADP Big Fallers 5. Davante Adams (-17) 4. Michael Pittman (-18) 3. Courtland Sutton (-18) 2. Michael Wilson (25) 1. Wan'Dale Robinson (-33) Big Risers 5. Mike Evans (+16) 4. Ladd McConkey (+18) 3. DeVonta Smith (+18) 2. Justin Jefferson (+22) 1. Luther Burden (+27)

While it’s a new staff in Pittsburgh, you could argue that Rodgers’ play style these days is conducive to RB fantasy scoring over WR. He holds a really low aDOT as he struggles to get the ball deep downfield (6.2 is lowest in NFL), and he doesn’t want to get hit at this stage of his career so he gets the ball out quickly (2.38 time to throw also lowest NFL). This is naturally going to lead to a lot of checkdowns and RB targets, top 5 in both categories last year. With Gainwell gone, Warren se...

While it’s a new staff in Pittsburgh, you could argue that Rodgers’ play style these days is conducive to RB fantasy scoring over WR. He holds a really low aDOT as he struggles to get the ball deep downfield (6.2 is lowest in NFL), and he doesn’t want to get hit at this stage of his career so he gets the ball out quickly (2.38 time to throw also lowest NFL). This is naturally going to lead to a lot of checkdowns and RB targets, top 5 in both categories last year. With Gainwell gone, Warren se...

@​ScottBarrettDFB Saquon Barkley averaged 4.3 YPC on the Giants, and Breece Hall was one of the highest-volume/best receiving backs in the league until he had to play with Justin Fields Willis averages like ~16 aimed attempts per start <

@​ScottBarrettDFB Saquon Barkley averaged 4.3 YPC on the Giants, and Breece Hall was one of the highest-volume/best receiving backs in the league until he had to play with Justin Fields Willis averages like ~16 aimed attempts per start <

Whether a QB is "fantasy friendly" for his receivers is distinct from whether the QB is good. Dropbacks per Start (volume) vs. Dropback Conversion Rate (how often it actually becomes a pass attempt) The Jets going from Fields to Geno is potentially huge. @​FantasyPtsData

Whether a QB is "fantasy friendly" for his receivers is distinct from whether the QB is good. Dropbacks per Start (volume) vs. Dropback Conversion Rate (how often it actually becomes a pass attempt) The Jets going from Fields to Geno is potentially huge. @​FantasyPtsData

Who will be the Steelers WR1 in 2026? DK Metcalf Michael Pittman Jr.

if you just plopped him onto any nfl team he’s their best WR only exception is Chase. [Quoted](

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Notable wide receivers with worse drop rates than Quentin Johnston over the last three seasons: -CeeDee Lamb -Davante Adams -Zay Flowers -Jaylen Waddle -Jameson Williams -Emeka Egbuka -Tetairoa McMillan -Brian Thomas Jr. -Jayden Reed -Romeo Doubs -Parker Washington

Jayden Higgins

Klint Kubiak's offenses have performed DESPITE poorly-projected offensive lines. 2024 Saints Preseason O-line rank: 31st PFF / 23rd Fantasy Points EPA/play rank: 9th in Derek Carr's starts 2025 Seahawks Preseason O-line rank: 30th PFF / 30th Fantasy Points EPA/play rank: 15th

remember joe mixon

Nico Collins last five games against the Jaguars: 7-104-1 12-151-1 8-119-0 8-104-1 7-136-0

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

.@​PriscoCBS ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1) Matthew Stafford 2) Josh Allen 3) Joe Burrow 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Lamar Jackson 6) Dak Prescott 7) Jordan Love 8) Jared Goff 9) Drake Maye 10) Justin Herbert Is this list valid? 🤔

Jalen Hurts when Saquon Barkley gets tackled on the one-yard line

Jalen Hurts when Saquon Barkley gets tackled on the one-yard line

Rams RB usage after their Week 8 bye last season (including playoffs): Carries: Kyren Williams 196, Blake Corum 130 Targets: Kyren 33, Corum 11 Snaps: Kyren 563, Corum 326 The Athletic (see below) suggesting that could get tighter, at least on carries. Would note that Kyren a bigger favorite for the most valuable situations: Goal-line and passing downs.

Rams RB usage after their Week 8 bye last season (including playoffs): Carries: Kyren Williams 196, Blake Corum 130 Targets: Kyren 33, Corum 11 Snaps: Kyren 563, Corum 326 The Athletic (see below) suggesting that could get tighter, at least on carries. Would note that Kyren a bigger favorite for the most valuable situations: Goal-line and passing downs.

The latest video in the Brandon Aiyuk saga… Flexing the 49ers money 😭🤣

Two busted coverages out of 20 downfield rookie season receptions. Historic stuff from Emeka Egbuka, even while playing through injury <

Every Emeka Egbuka gain of 20+ yards in 2025 - WR5 in gains of 20+ (tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown) - 1 of 9 rookies (dating back to 2000) to post at least 20 gains of 20+ yards in Year 1: 26 - Puka Nacua 23 - Justin Jefferson 22 - Ja'Marr Chase 21 - Deebo Samuel 21 - Saquon Barkley 21 - Anquan Boldin 20 - Mike Evans 20 - A.J. Green 20 - Emeka Egbuka

Gadsden's efficiency as a rookie, per @​FantasyPtsData: + Overall: 0.18 TPRR, 1.77 YPRR + When leading by 7+: 0.07 TPRR, 1.42 YPRR + When trailing by 7+: 0.17 TPRR, 2.03 YPRR Really not much of a difference in tilted game scripts in either direction. I think a much cleaner way to look at the season for Gadsden: + Week 1-5: Didn't play Week 1 or 2, hyper-targeted Week 3 with a limited route share still Week 3-5 (42.3%) + Week 6-9: Absolutely crushed in this time when the offense started clicki...

Gadsden's efficiency as a rookie, per @​FantasyPtsData: + Overall: 0.18 TPRR, 1.77 YPRR + When leading by 7+: 0.07 TPRR, 1.42 YPRR + When trailing by 7+: 0.17 TPRR, 2.03 YPRR Really not much of a difference in tilted game scripts in either direction. I think a much cleaner way to look at the season for Gadsden: + Week 1-5: Didn't play Week 1 or 2, hyper-targeted Week 3 with a limited route share still Week 3-5 (42.3%) + Week 6-9: Absolutely crushed in this time when the offense started clicki...

Gadsden's efficiency as a rookie, per @​FantasyPtsData: + Overall: 0.18 TPRR, 1.77 YPRR + When leading by 7+: 0.07 TPRR, 1.42 YPRR + When trailing by 7+: 0.17 TPRR, 2.03 YPRR Really not much of a difference in tilted game scripts in either direction. I think a much cleaner way to look at the season for Gadsden: + Week 1-5: Didn't play Week 1 or 2, hyper-targeted Week 3 with a limited route share still Week 3-5 (42.3%) + Week 6-9: Absolutely crushed in this time when the offense started clicki...

Fantasy accounts listing “sleepers” but they’re guys like Jahmyr Gibbs

David Montgomery: Bull case: He's still good, the Lions just wanted to fully feature Gibbs (very understandable). Now has 300+ touch upside as THE running back y'all in a barren Houston backfield with a (hopefully) improved offensive line that could play with a LOT of leads given how dominant their defense should be. Double-digit touchdown upside is on the table. Bear case: He's more okay than good these days, loses pass-down work to Woody Marks, the offensive line continues to suck, and most...

David Montgomery: Bull case: He's still good, the Lions just wanted to fully feature Gibbs (very understandable). Now has 300+ touch upside as THE running back y'all in a barren Houston backfield with a (hopefully) improved offensive line that could play with a LOT of leads given how dominant their defense should be. Double-digit touchdown upside is on the table. Bear case: He's more okay than good these days, loses pass-down work to Woody Marks, the offensive line continues to suck, and most...

TRUE OR FALSE - Quentin Johnston will finish as a Top 24 fantasy WR this season.

Yes, CJ Stroud needs to be better in January. Also yes, Stroud was largely better than ever in the 2025 regular season. Last thing missing is getting back some of the 2023 explosive plays.

Quick reminder that Stefon Diggs went for over 1,000 yards last year while never playing more than 70% of the offensive snaps in a single game. [Retweeted](

CJ Stroud combined interceptions and fumbles last season: Regular season (14 games): 10 Playoffs (2 games): 10

You’ll never hear a negative comment about the McDaniel offense these days, but they’ve consistently played at one of the slowest paces in the NFL. Plays per game has a direct and obvious correlation to FP/G, specifically so at the QB and WR positions. The Chargers have 4 players drafted in the top 7 rounds of drafts (1 of 6 teams), and 7 players in the top 14 rounds (1 of 2 teams). Feels like it could be pretty tough for several of these guys to get there in such a slow paced offense, unless...

One comment notes Otton doesn't scare Godwin's opportunity; no major competition added for short/intermediate targets.

One comment identifies Gainwell as Bucs sleeper to add, suggesting he's upgrade over Rachaad White but no major impact to Godwin's slot role.

Top comment (score 107) mentions McMillan as tasty late-round move. Multiple comments suggest McMillan is better value than Godwin: moved to all 3 receiver positions in OTAs; great 2 years ago as rookie; tough, physical WR with good tools; currently WR53 in some projections vs. consensus WR60. Only 2 WR1 weekly finishes in 2 years (same as Godwin post-injury), but younger and less injury-prone. Some prefer McMillan at his ADP over Godwin.

Post notes Baker has shown chemistry with Godwin and benefits from Godwin–Egbuka coexistence. Community emphasizes Baker's oblique injury in 2025 affected deep throws and accuracy (lame ducks, batted balls, overthrowing) but Godwin's slot role mitigated impact; short passes easier for injured Baker. Baker threw 4K yards in 2 of last 3 seasons, suggesting offensive volume. Godwin's familiarity with Baker and slot positioning make him reliable target even if QB is compromised.

Post notes Evans is viewed by many as buy at WR26 despite being in decline over past 2 years and having to learn new offense with new QB. Evans' departure (115 combined 2025 targets with Sterling Shepard now gone) opens target share for Godwin and Egbuka. Evans' decline and landing spot (SF) explain his ADP; his absence is bullish for Godwin's opportunity.

Post acknowledges Egbuka's upside for growth but notes 2025 rookie season was mixed bag; not convinced he'll end as WR1 in Tampa. Whispers suggest Godwin will assume WR1 role. Community largely bullish on Egbuka but with caveats: was on pace for ROTY before hamstring injury; Baker showed chemistry almost immediately; 5 TDs in first 5 games (when Godwin unavailable) inflated perception. Skeptics note catch % concerns, inconsistency late season (topped 42 yds receiving 1 of last 7 games), and Baker's oblique injury seemed to magnify accuracy issues with Egbuka more than Godwin. Some see Egbuka and Godwin coexisting with 20%+ target shares each. Consensus: Egbuka has higher ceiling but Godwi...

Post argues Godwin at WR42 ADP is undervalued: 1050 yds, 95 rec, 3.3 TDs average over last three 14+ game seasons; now 100% healthy and positioned as WR1 in Tampa with Evans gone. Baker Mayfield has shown chemistry with him in slot role. Community split: bullish camp sees WR2 upside at late cost with high floor (double-digit PPR weeks, spike potential in best ball); skeptics cite age 30, injury history (dislocated ankle Oct 2024 requiring surgery + follow-up), and last season's inconsistency (non-factor in most games despite availability, one strong Week 17 vs. Miami). Some note he was WR3 overall in Week 17 2025 and WR1 the week before injury in 2024. Egbuka's 5 TDs in first 5 games (whe...

Which of these rookie WRs has the highest ceiling? Ted Hurst Zachariah Branch Antonio Williams Chris Brazzell

Which of these rookie WRs has the highest ceiling? Ted Hurst Zachariah Branch Antonio Williams Chris Brazzell

Every Amon-Ra St. Brown gain of 20+ yards in 2025 - WR5 in gains of 20+ - WR4 over the past three seasons, behind Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and CeeDee Lamb - By far the lowest average depth of target from that group - nearly half of his yards on these plays came after catch

Every Parker Washington gain of 20+ yards in 2025 - WR9 in gains of 20+ - WR3 from Week 9 onward

Joe Burrow's outlook improves significantly with the Bengals' defensive upgrade via Dexter Lawrence. The team's historical issues—poor defense and Burrow's injury risk—are intertwined; the shootout nature of games forced Burrow into third-down situations where he couldn't safely throw the ball away because the Bengals' defense would immediately surrender a touchdown, putting him in harm's way. With competent defense now in place and no contract drama for the first time in recent offseasons, the expectation is that Burrow will manage games more safely, face less pressure, and avoid unnecessary injury risk. The defensive improvement is projected to have a trickle-down effect on Burrow's health and game management, positioning the Bengals to return to the playoffs.

Dexter Lawrence, described as arguably the most dominant defensive tackle since Aaron Donald's retirement, is positioned as a transformational addition to the Bengals defense. Lawrence stated before OTAs ended that it is "go now time," expressing a boxer-like mentality of keeping his head down and getting to work. The Bengals' primary issues have been poor defense and Joe Burrow's health; if Lawrence performs at even an average level relative to his elite standard, the team automatically improves and gains a real shot to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2022. The defensive upgrade is expected to have a trickle-down effect on Burrow's game management and injury risk by reducing pressure situations driven by the team's defensive shortcomings.

Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when healthy; his offense has proved it can score with anybody on the field, and the Bengals' championship window is right now with his health and the addition of Dexter Lawrence to fix their defense, which has been the real issue the past couple of seasons.

Lawrence, acquired by the Bengals to address their terrible defense, has been double-teamed more than any defensive tackle in the past five seasons and has more pressures than any other D-tackle in that span; he's arguably the most dominant defensive tackle since Aaron Donald retired and will make an immediate impact, with the Bengals signaling their championship window is right now with this move.

Stafford is expected to pass the torch to Ty Simpson at some point in 2027 or 2028; the Browns, who now own the Rams' first-round pick in 2027, could use that pick or bundle picks to go get their quarterback of the future, with the two quarterbacks potentially being linked for years to come.

Young, the Rams' weak side linebacker, had 12 sacks last season; Miles Garrett has never played with a teammate who had double-digit sacks, which could help unlock the best version of Garrett by providing balanced pass rush pressure.

Donald has retired but is teasing a potential comeback with workout videos in the weight room; if he returns, the Rams would be the first team in NFL history to have two multi-year defensive players of the year on the roster at the same time alongside Miles Garrett.

Garrett, a two-time defensive player of the year who just set a new single-season sack record, was traded to the Rams to address their defensive struggles in the final nine games and playoffs where they gave up 27 points per game; he brings the star power the Rams defense has been missing since Aaron Donald retired and has never played with a teammate who had double-digit sacks, which could unlock his best version; the Rams are now arguably the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Atwell, who signed with the Miami Dolphins as a free agent after five years in Los Angeles, has 1,535 career receiving yards and is one of the most experienced vets on the Dolphins roster; he's the fastest receiver on the team and will be a key part of the Dolphins' wide receiver group alongside Malik, JT, and T. Marsh, with the offense using similar terminology to the Sean McVay system he learned in LA.

Tagovailoa, one of the most injured quarterbacks in the league, will get a chance to start for the Falcons but will suffer a season-ending injury; he and Michael Penix Jr. will rotate as starters with whoever can stay out of the training room getting the nod each week, before both eventually get hurt and Trevor Simeone takes over.

Penix, one of the most injured quarterbacks in the league, will get a chance to start for the Falcons but will suffer a season-ending injury; he and Tua Tagovailoa will rotate as starters with whoever can stay out of the training room getting the nod each week, before both eventually get hurt and Trevor Simeone takes over.

Tate, the wide receiver out of Ohio State drafted by the Tennessee Titans on draft night as a surprise pick, will win offensive rookie of the year by hooking up with Cam Ward and providing a deep threat; he joins a lineage of rookie WRs who won the award including Ted McMillan, Garrett Wilson, Jamar Chase, OBJ, Percy Harvin, Anquan Bolden, and Randy Moss.

Taylor was an MVP candidate through the first eight games but fell off the cliff in the final four games before injury, reverting to form; this decline contributed to the Colts' overall collapse and Daniel Jones' regression in the final stretch of the season.

Jones had a magical first eight games with only three turnovers and a 105 passer rating, but reverted to form in the final four games before injury with seven turnovers and a 58% passer rating, particularly struggling against pressure as he always has; his two-year, $88 million contract with $60 million guaranteed will look bad next year because he'll struggle early and get hurt again.

Darnold threw five touchdown passes and zero interceptions in three playoff games, executing the Seahawks' game plan of dominant defense, clock control, and ball security at a high level; he's entering year two of a three-year, $104 million deal (one of the lower-paid franchise QB contracts), and could cash in significantly if he continues playing at last season's level or the level he showed in Minnesota before the final two games.

Pitts is working on his hands and reactions at tight end in Atlanta; he was drafted in the top five and received a contract extension partly because of his skilled player profile and the Falcons' goal of winning a Super Bowl.

Micah Parsons was involved in a holdout situation during the 2025 offseason that affected the Cowboys' defensive cohesion. Jane Slater noted that the team never got the roster on the same page defensively due to injuries, the holdout, and other roster moves. The new coaching staff under Christian Parker is working to ensure all players are aligned heading into 2026.

Jalen Thompson, a safety, was acquired by the Cowboys from Arizona as part of their defensive overhaul. He is the exception to the Cowboys' strategy of targeting additions from winning programs. Thompson has a reputation for having winning habits, and the Cowboys are hoping those habits translate into production under new defensive coordinator Christian Parker.

Dee Winters was acquired by the Cowboys in a trade from San Francisco as part of their defensive overhaul. The Cowboys specifically targeted additions from winning programs, and Winters comes from the successful 49ers organization. He is part of the new defensive scheme under first-time defensive coordinator Christian Parker.

Kyle Pitts agreed to a two-year extension with the Falcons worth $36 million fully guaranteed. Pitts was at Tight End University in Nashville and expressed gratitude to the Falcons organization, saying 'God is good, man' and shouting out the Atlanta nation. He is working on his hands and reactions as a skilled player drafted in the top five.

DJ Moore is joining the Bills as a veteran wide receiver who has been in the league as long as Josh Allen and has produced at a high level for the last eight years. Allen views Moore as bringing veteran leadership and is excited about their locker room relationship and seamless fit. Moore is expected to be a huge help for the Bills in the 2026 season.

Josh Allen is entering year nine of his NFL career at age 30 and continues to work on mechanics, footwork, and eye placement. He is focused on finding better spots for his team and getting the job done in the playoffs, which remains the Bills' ultimate goal. Allen is adjusting to fatherhood with a few-months-old infant and emphasizes the importance of sleep for his cognitive function and family wellbeing.

Juwan Johnson was among the 49ers' star players who missed significant time last season. Along with Brandon Aiyuk, Fred Warner, Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle, these six pro-bowl caliber players missed 66 games total. The 49ers' injury luck has been a persistent problem, and staying healthy is the key to their 2026 contention.

Ricky Pearsall was among the 49ers' star players who missed significant time last season. Along with Brandon Aiyuk, Fred Warner, Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Juwan Johnson, these six pro-bowl caliber players missed 66 games total. The 49ers' injury luck has been a persistent problem, and staying healthy is the key to their 2026 contention.

Fred Warner was among the 49ers' star players who missed significant time last season. Along with Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Juwan Johnson, these six pro-bowl caliber players missed 66 games total. The 49ers' injury luck has been a persistent problem, and staying healthy is the key to their 2026 contention.

Brandon Aiyuk was among the 49ers' star players who missed significant time last season. Along with Fred Warner, Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Juwan Johnson, these six pro-bowl caliber players missed 66 games total. The 49ers' injury luck has been a persistent problem, and staying healthy is the key to their 2026 contention.

Brock Purdy is the 49ers quarterback heading into 2026 with new receivers and chemistry to build. Kyle Shanahan ended the offseason program early, and Purdy felt they accomplished building chemistry with new faces. Purdy emphasized staying healthy and being ready for the season. He views the NFC West as the best division in football and is focused on the team's craft and preparation for week one in Australia.

Mike Evans is a notable new face for the 49ers. Brock Purdy noted that Evans showed up, put his head down, and went to work learning the playbook. Purdy and Evans have been discussing every throw and rep together, with Purdy eager to learn from and perform well for the Hall of Fame receiver.

George Kittle is described as the most explosive tight end in the NFL and brings significant energy and leadership to the 49ers. He is coming off an Achilles injury. Brock Purdy expressed eagerness for his return and wants him on the field for week one, though the team is taking it one day at a time with his recovery.

Puka Nakua spent time in rehab earlier in the offseason but has been back in the building this spring and by all accounts looks like himself. The Rams are unlikely to pursue an extension until closer to the start of the regular season. The market is well-established; Jackson Smith-Njigba's extension provides a reference point for potential Nakua deal numbers.

Baker Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million contract in 2024 and is the lowest paid among 16 veteran quarterbacks on franchise-type contracts; the top of the market is basically double what he's making. The sides are not on the same page regarding extension value. Mayfield set a deadline of training camp start; if no deal is reached, he faces a franchise tag or free agency in March.

In two-receiver leagues, Trey McBride is much more likely to be drafted early, whereas in three-receiver leagues, filling out receivers earlier is preferred.

Brock Bowers could be an outright bust if drafted at the two-three turn, given the uncertainty of his offensive situation and quarterback support.

Trey McBride could be an outright bust if drafted at the two-three turn, potentially scoring 13 points or less given his poor touchdown history prior to last year.

Isaiah Likely is the only top-12 tight end being projected to do something he hasn't done before, even if it's a small sample size.

George Kittle is a proven tight end with a known track record of elite production.

Travis Kelce is a proven tight end with a known track record of elite production.

Tucker Kraft could be the best pass catcher for the Packers, positioning him as an attractive tight end option.

Harold Fannin was great in the second half of last season and may have awesome target competition opportunities.

Tyler Warren may lead the Colts in targets and was really good when Daniel Jones was healthy last year.

Sam Laporta had a great rookie season and gets a huge coaching upgrade, making him an attractive tight end prospect.

Kyle Pitts had a great season and gets a huge coaching upgrade, positioning him as an attractive tight end option.

There is a possibility that Carson Beck gets called up to start for the Cardinals, which would terrify analysts regarding Brock Bowers' production.

Brock Bowers could be dealing with a bad offense, and his quarterback situation is uncertain with Cam Ward struggling in his rookie campaign and Kirk Cousins potentially finished.

Jacoby Brissett, at 33 years old, had a career-high season last year even without playing the full season, demonstrating strong support for Trey McBride's production.

Brock Bowers' elite potential is questionable given the uncertainty of his quarterback situation, with 30+ year old Kirk Cousins and unproven Fernando Mendoza tasked with supporting him.

Despite analytical concerns, Trey McBride is still considered a really good fantasy option and somebody worthy of taking in the mid to end of round two, early part of round three.

When analyzing target history, Trey McBride presents downside risk as a player who averaged 9+ targets for two straight seasons but could see a significant drop-off, similar to historical examples like Zach Ertz and Darren Waller.

Trey McBride is ranked 22nd in FantasyPros consensus rankings, lower than many average drafters expect given his strong 2025 season performance.

Trey McBride is projected for 1,080 yards and 8 touchdowns on 154 targets with 15.94 points per game, ranking as the number one tight end but with a middle-of-the-second-round fantasy value.

Trey McBride scored 6 touchdowns on 292 targets in his first 49 games, then 11 touchdowns on 169 targets last year, with projections for only 6 touchdowns this year—a significant regression from last season's pace.

Trey McBride is projected for 143 targets this year, with one analyst taking the under at 138-142.5 targets.

Michael Wilson is a solid player who deserves more targets than what he got in the first 38 games of his career.

If Michael Wilson becomes a factor in the Cardinals offense, it would bump Trey McBride down in target share and opportunity.

Trey McBride did most of his end zone work when Marvin Harrison was out, suggesting his red zone opportunities may be limited with Harrison healthy.

Marvin Harrison has been the preferred end zone target for the Cardinals in each of his two years, establishing him as the team's primary red zone weapon.

Collins never played more games or had more targets than he did last year, and still averaged 9.3 yards per target (elite for wide receivers), suggesting his role is secure.

Collins is projected for 15 PPR points per game, below his 18 PPR point bounce-back expectation, as his 2023 season (11.9 yards per target, 7.5% TD rate) is likely an outlier.

Analysts are more concerned about Collins' ability to stay healthy than Rasheed Rice's, despite Rice's off-field concerns.

Collins should be viewed as a borderline top 12 wide receiver who will continue to get significant work from C.J. Stroud.

David Montgomery's arrival could cost Collins some opportunities inside the 10-yard line, though this is a lesser concern than similar changes for other receivers.

Collins is the easy number one wide receiver in Houston with a rock-solid role, averaging 8 targets per game last year and 8.3 targets per game the year prior.

Collins should bounce back to 16.8 PPR points per game, matching his average from the first 12 games of last year.

Henry has exceeded 5 yards per carry in each of his two years in Baltimore, demonstrating consistent rushing efficiency.

Henry is a touchdown machine with 24 carries from inside the five-yard line last year, providing consistent goal-line scoring opportunities.

Barkley should see increased involvement in the passing game under Sean Mannion's offense, potentially reaching 40-50 receptions compared to his 2.3 receptions per game average in 2025.

Barkley's rushing efficiency dropped significantly from 5.8 yards per carry in his first year in Philadelphia to 4.1 last year, a 1.5 yard per carry decline that compounds over 250-300 attempts.

Barkley has zero one-yard touchdown runs in the last two seasons and only three carries from the one-yard line last year, limiting his goal-line touchdown upside.

Barkley plays a ton of snaps and was fourth among top 10 running backs in plays per game last year, providing consistent field presence.

The Eagles' new West Coast offensive scheme under Sean Mannion should be favorable for Barkley and may provide more designed targets for him.

Barkley was RB15 per game last year and a huge bust, with the Eagles' offense falling off significantly after Lane Johnson's injury.

Barkley should bounce back to around 16 PPR points per game in full PPR, matching his average from the first eight games of last year before the offensive line injuries.

Walker is worth a late round one or early round two pick, with realistic projection of 45 receptions based on Sportsline estimates.

Walker may not be the third-down back or two-minute drill back for the Chiefs, limiting his upside in certain game situations.

Walker could potentially record 10 rushing touchdowns this season, outpacing Kareem Hunt's 7 rushing touchdowns from 2024 in 13 games.

Walker could average 18+ points per game in this offense given his pedigree, resume, and the opportunity to be featured in both rushing and passing roles.

Walker is expected to be used more in the passing game than previously, with minicamp reports showing the Chiefs are impressed with his pass-catching ability.

Walker could be a dynamic running back with significant upside in the passing game, with potential for 10+ touchdowns and 45+ receptions based on his postseason performance and minicamp impressions.

Walker is ranked lower (25th) compared to Rice and some analysts, reflecting skepticism about both Rice and Walker being awesome simultaneously in the same offense.

In full PPR, Rice is the placeholder as the next best wide receiver after CeeDee Lamb that fantasy managers can trust, with upside from the Chiefs' top-seven pass attempt volume over six straight seasons.

Rice has earned significant credit as Patrick Mahomes' go-to receiver in the Chiefs offense and should remain the primary target, especially with Mahomes' reduced mobility post-injury.

Rice has 20+ PPR points in only half of four career games when a Chiefs running back had 20+ carries, raising concerns about his floor when the run game is heavily featured.

When Kansas City running backs have 15+ carries, Rice shows inconsistent production: 17+ targets in 8 of 18 games, but 13.3 or fewer PPR points in 9 of 18 games, making him roughly a 50-50 proposition at the 1-2 turn.

Rice has a mild injury history including a knee cleanup this offseason, a concussion that cost him three games last year, and a left knee injury in 2024 that cost him an entire season.

Rice has a chance to be a top five wide receiver in full PPR, and potentially the best wide receiver in the format if he avoids legal/suspension issues and attends training camp as expected.

Rice is ranked 14th-15th in consensus rankings and is in the second tier of wide receiver discussion, not the top tier but with significant upside.

Rice can be considered at the 1-2 turn and has a chance to be a top-five wide receiver, potentially the best wide receiver in full PPR if everything breaks right.

Rice has averaged 9.6 targets per game since week 12 of 2023, matching McBride's elite target share and positioning him as a potential top-five wide receiver.

Collins has missed significant games and left games early throughout his career, limiting his consistency despite elite per-game production when available.

Collins has averaged at least 18.5 PPR fantasy points per game in games where he played 50%+ of snaps in two of the last three seasons, showing elite upside when healthy.

Six of Barkley's nine touchdowns last year came in games where Lane Johnson played 75%+ of snaps, highlighting his dependence on offensive line health.

Barkley has zero one-yard touchdown runs over the last two seasons while 14 other running backs have at least five, and he failed to score on three carries from the one-yard line last year.

Barkley has had only two elite seasons in seven healthy seasons, finishing as RB7, 31, 5, 9, and 15 PPG in the others, showing significant inconsistency.

Walker is projected for 37 catches, suggesting an increase in pass-game involvement that would break his historical trend of fewer than two catches per game.

The Chiefs have been 25th or lower in running back rush attempts in seven of the last eight seasons, suggesting Walker may not see a significant increase in carries despite joining the team.

Walker has averaged fewer than two catches per game in three of his four NFL seasons and has only six career catches in the two-minute drill, limiting his pass-catching upside.

Kelce was very good with Mahomes last year and can still produce at a high level alongside other elite tight ends.

Kittle is trending in the right direction coming off an Achilles injury and can still produce at a high level, with recent footage from tight end U showing positive signs.

Pitts is part of a strong secondary tier of tight ends with good opportunities alongside Loveland, Warren, Laporta, Kraft, and Fannin.

Loveland is part of a strong secondary tier of tight ends with good opportunities, averaging 13.8 PPG and considered better than McBride if the latter regresses significantly.

Bowers is part of a fairly deep tight end tier at the top alongside McBride, with strong opportunities and talent in the position group.

McBride needs to average 17 PPG to justify a 1-2 turn pick, 16 PPG for mid-round two, or 15 PPG for a 2-3 turn—a framework for evaluating his draft value.

McBride ran 120 more routes than the next closest tight end last year, a massive advantage that won't repeat if Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson stay healthy.

If McBride regresses from 18 PPG to 14-15 PPG, he becomes a bust at the 2-3 turn despite potentially finishing as TE1, especially with other tight end options available.

McBride had 8 touchdown catches of 10+ yards last year, the most for any tight end, but faces significant regression risk as the Cardinals led the NFL in pass attempts and lacked a run game—both factors unlikely to repeat with improved offensive line and healthy receivers.

Isaiah Likely is gone from the Ravens, which opens up tight end target share for Mark Andrews in the Baltimore offense.

The source presents conflicting takes on Andrews. While initially arguing he is a worthwhile target if you punt tight end early—noting that in Lamar Jackson's seven full seasons as a starter, Ravens tight ends have ranked in percentage of team targets as follows: first, fifth, first, first, tenth, fourth, and fourth, showing Lamar enjoys throwing to tight ends, and that Isaiah Likely is gone so Andrews figures to get a high percentage of Ravens tight end targets—the source ultimately believes Andrews is cooked. Andrews had career lows in receiving yardage, yards per catch, and yards per target last year. More concerning, out of 49 qualifying tight ends, Andrews was dead last in yards after the catch per reception, a metric that has nothing to do with quarterback play and reflects what he does after catching the ball. The source notes that Zach Ertz had more yards after the catch than Andrews despite being a player who can't force a broken tackle. The source prefers other late-round tight ends like Tucker Craft and Chico Conkwo, who offer yards after the catch. Andrews has been out of juice for the last couple of seasons.

Bucky Irving is mentioned as a running back who took touches from Rashad White last year and is expected to remain part of a committee backfield with White, Ja'Cory Kroski-Meritt, Katron Allen, and possibly Jerome Ford in the Commanders offense.

The source emphasizes that Drake London is clearly the alpha in the Falcons passing game when healthy. The offense will funnel through London in the passing game, and he is so good that even with a new quarterback situation (Tua or Michael Penix), London remains the primary target.

The source presents conflicting takes on Pitts. While acknowledging he was tight end two in half-point PPR scoring last year with 88 catches, 928 yards, and five touchdowns, and that new Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski has historically been tight-end friendly (his offenses averaged 167 tight end targets over the last three years), the source is ultimately not excited about Pitts and doesn't view him as part of his tight end strategy. Pitts is going in the middle tier of tight ends (7-11 range), which historically has a high bust rate. The core concern: when Drake London is healthy, London is clearly the alpha in the passing game, not Pitts. Last two seasons, Pitts averaged 8.5 PPR points per game, which would rank outside the top 20 tight ends. He was better with Kirk Cousins than Michael Penix. The source worries about the ceiling with Tua or Michael Penix as quarterback and notes the Falcons could be drafting a quarterback in 2027, suggesting potential quarterback instability. At age 25, only Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten had more catches through their age 25 seasons, but the source will only consider Pitts if he falls into late-round tight end territory.

The source identifies Strange as one of his sleeper tight ends after Strange signed a three-year extension with the Jaguars. The source likes him as a value pick at the position.

The source ranks Thomas at 106 vs. ECR 85, citing Trevor Lawrence as the core problem. Thomas averaged 87 receiving yards per game with Mac Jones but only 56 with Lawrence across a 25-game sample. The source loves the talent from his rookie year but notes it was a small sample size with Mac Jones; the larger 25-game body of work has been more disappointing than good. Target distribution depth in Jacksonville's offense is crowded: Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange (three-year extension), and a second-round tight-end draft pick will all compete for targets. Thomas may be deployed primarily as a downfield threat, which provides spike weeks but lacks consistency and weekly target leadership. The source plans to roster him in exactly one redraft league as a hedge in case he reverts to rookie form, but fears he becomes a zombie X receiver who runs routes without seeing target volume. Chemistry with Lawrence is growing from zero to low, which doesn't move the fantasy needle—it needs to reach medium to high for excitement.

Pat Fitzmaurice ranks Harvey at 133 vs. ECR 82, arguing he failed the audition last year after J.K. Dobbins' injury. Harvey averaged 3.3 yards per carry after Dobbins went down, running behind a good offensive line. With Dobbins returning and Jonah Coleman drafted in round four as a capable pass-catcher and pass-blocker, Fitzmaurice sees limited role for Harvey. Sean Payton's history as a running-back-by-committee coach further limits Harvey's ceiling. Fitzmaurice has no Harvey in redraft at round-seven pricing.

Erickson ranks Williams at 70 vs. ECR 50, citing a 38% bust rate—highest among top-20 WRs last year per FantasyPros Boom/Bust Report. Bust rate correlated directly to games when Sam LaPorta was active vs. inactive. Dan Campbell's departure as play-caller (now Drew Petzing as OC) removes the context that improved Williams' usage mid-season. Erickson notes Williams was outside top-50 PPG to start 2024 and was cut from many leagues despite early draft capital, making him frustrating to own.

Williams' points per game fell from 2024 to last season despite improved efficiency; Blake Corum's addition threatens his goal-line role (Williams had only 54% of goal-line carries, 20th among RBs). He has not finished top-five in full fantasy standings in three seasons as the Rams' bell cow and scored his fewest rushing touchdowns last year. The Rams are dead last in running-back target share over the last two seasons, leaving no receiving workload to fall back on. At RB12–13 ADP, the ceiling is limited (likely RB10) with downside risk if Corum takes more carries.

Andrew Erickson ranks Waddle at 43 vs. ECR 48, arguing the Denver trade represents a significant upgrade. Waddle will be top-two in volume alongside Cortland Sutton; Troy Franklin will fade into background. Erickson emphasizes Waddle's 13th-ranked yards per route run last year despite Miami's run-heavy offense and notes he averaged 82 yards in five of 11 games when Tyreek Hill was out, suggesting he thrives when given opportunity. Denver threw 100 more passes than Miami last year and ranked eighth in pass rate overall and seventh in pass rate over expectation, providing volume relief. Erickson projects Waddle as WR2 going with WR1 upside.

Rice has missed 22 regular-season games in the last two years due to suspension and injury; at ECR 27 overall, there is no discount this year. Xavier Worthy could be a bigger threat to his role after a strong second-half rookie year, and the Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker to run the ball more, potentially reducing Rice's role in the passing game. Safer options exist at the round-two/three turn.

Chase Brown finished RB7 in points per game from week 7 onward last season and fifth in expected fantasy points per game overall; he averaged nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back seasons and was RB3 from weeks 13–17 over 20 half-PPR points per game. In a Joe Burrow-led offense with bell-cow usage and minimal competition (Samaj Perine was a one-B back), Brown is positioned to smash in 2026 on his final rookie contract year.

If healthy all season, McCaffrey projects for 2,000 yards from scrimmage and double-digit touchdowns; he has delivered 16 or 17 games in three of the last four years, and even at 12–14 games played, his per-game production is elite enough to justify a mid-first-round pick. The source emphasizes maximizing upside over minimizing downside and notes that scared money doesn't make money in fantasy football.

Andrew identifies Travis Hunter at +1,705 odds as a 'whimsy' MVP bet based on his unique two-way player status; argues that if Hunter plays both receiver and defensive back, accumulates 1,000 receiving yards and 5 interceptions, he would be the only NFL player capable of such a dual-position performance, creating an unprecedented MVP narrative—though acknowledges this outcome is highly unlikely.

Tony Ayo notes that Jonathan Taylor received serious MVP consideration last year due to high touchdown volume, but the Colts' late-season collapse prevented him from winning; used as a cautionary example that even elite touchdown production does not guarantee MVP votes if team performance falters.

Debra identifies Bijan Robinson as a potential MVP dark horse if the Falcons improve significantly under new coaching. She frames him as a 'worst to first' narrative candidate who could accumulate 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards (dual-threat Marshall Faulk-type season). However, his +8,000 odds are worse than Jameer Gibbs despite similar upside, making him undervalued relative to market.

Tony Ayo dismisses Christian McCaffrey's MVP chances, noting that despite never winning an MVP award, he lacks sufficient 'juice' remaining in his career to mount a credible 2026 MVP run. Age and declining upside make him an unlikely candidate despite the narrative appeal of completing his Hall of Fame resume.

Tony Ayo prefers Brock Purdy over Jared Goff for 2026 MVP betting, citing Purdy's underdog narrative and marketability. In 2024, Purdy threw for 4,600 yards and 37 touchdowns, earning him fourth in MVP voting in 2023 and fifth in 2024 despite elite production. Ayo argues his odds undervalue his story and upside relative to Goff's lack of narrative appeal, suggesting Purdy's underdog status and media-friendly profile make him a superior MVP bet.

Andrew Erickson presents CJ Stroud as a dark horse MVP candidate at 50-to-1 odds, arguing the market has overreacted to his poor playoff performances (five fumbles vs. Steelers, bad game vs. Patriots). Erickson notes Stroud is still a good quarterback and shouldn't be completely rewritten based on two bad games. He highlights Stroud's track record: won at least nine games every year of his career with the Texans, 23-14 record over his last 38 games (61% win rate, good for 10.5 wins over 17 games). The Texans started 0-3 last year but dug out and made the postseason. Erickson points to potential improvements: Nico Collins healthy, Jalen Noel and Jaden Higgins no longer on training wheels, and a potential run game. If the Texans win enough games and Stroud plays well in early matchups (Bills, Bengals), he could be in MVP conversation. Stroud showed elite pocket-passing ability in his rookie year.

Tony Ayo identifies Bo Nix as a dark horse MVP candidate at plus-3,500 odds. He argues the Broncos roster is one of the best in the entire NFL and just added an elite wide receiver (similar to what the Patriots did). Ayo highlights the media narrative: Broncos Super Bowl charge last year, Bo Nix's injury as the reason they didn't reach the Super Bowl, Sean Payton cementing his legacy, and Nix silencing doubters about his prospect status. Nix will have the passing volume for counting stats needed for MVP conversation, plays in a major media market, and is at the perfect age to win the award. Ayo is surprised Nix isn't priced higher (in the Brock Purdy/Sam Darnold/Jalen Hurts tier) given the Broncos' projected 12-13 win total.

Tony Ayo identifies Baker Mayfield as a dark horse MVP candidate at plus-5,500 odds—the darkest of dark horses. He argues Mayfield is statistically capable (threw for 4,541 yards two years ago, which is an MVP-caliber line), is playing for a contract at a critical fork-in-the-road moment, and could easily win his division and make the playoffs if the Buccaneers put together a good season. Mayfield has talent around him (Godwin, McMillan, and depth in the receiving corps), though it's harder without Mike Evans. Mayfield is also a visible, established media figure (All-State commercial guy, household name), which is crucial for an MVP award that is fundamentally a media award.

Tony Ayo highlights Trevor Lawrence as a dark horse MVP candidate at 16-to-1 odds. He argues the Jaguars were one of the most complete teams last year and if they carry over second-half success, Lawrence will thrive in Liam Cohen's offense. Baker Mayfield threw for over 40 touchdowns in this offense in 2024 (tied for second most in NFL), and Lawrence combined for 38 total touchdowns last year, trailing only Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford—the top MVP contenders. At 27 years old, Lawrence is at the traditional peak age for first-time MVP-winning quarterbacks (average age 27 since 2000). If the Jaguars offense cooks and finishes top-five, Lawrence will get all the credit.

Tyler Warren is expected by Tony Ayo to lead the Colts in targets this season, competing with Alec Pierce and Josh Downs for receiving volume. He is positioned as a strong contributor to the Colts passing game. Per Tony Ayo: "I still think that Tyler Warren will probably end up leading this team in targets and think he's no slouch."

Josh Downs is identified by Tony Ayo as a really talented underrated player who will compete for targets in the Colts passing game alongside Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren. Per Tony Ayo: "Josh Downs is a really talented underrated player."

Sports Illustrated's Andrew Moore projects Alec Pierce to receive close to double the targets he got last year (84), suggesting 160+ targets. Tony Ayo is heavily selling this as unrealistic; only four players (Jamar Chase, Amon Ross St. Brown, Trey McBride, Puka Nacua) exceeded 160 targets last year. Concerns include Pierce's health status, potential PUP designation, and unproven ability to be a true WR1. Tyler Warren and Josh Downs will also compete for targets. Per Tony Ayo: "Hell no... how are you going to get targets if you're not fully healthy? And if he doesn't start the season, like out there, if he starts it on the pup and stuff."

Despite the Titans using a more balanced committee approach in the backfield, Tony Ayo expects Tony Pollard to lead the team in scrimmage yards and dominate the backfield. This aligns with Brian Dayball's historical offensive pattern of establishing a clear lead back (Peyton Hillis, Saquon Barkley, Devin Singletary, Tyron Tracy). Per Tony Ayo: "I think Tony Pollard is going to lead them in scrimmage yards and it's not going to be close... It's going to be Tony Pollard's backfield."

Cornell Tate is identified by Tony Ayo as the clear alpha wide receiver for the Titans, positioned to lead the team in targets ahead of other options like Wendell Robinson. Per Tony Ayo: "I think like your favorites here are Cornell Tate being the clear alpha wide receiver one."

ESPN reported that Greg Dulcich was one of the primary targets for Malik Willis in spring practices. Tony Ayo is buying this projection, expecting Dulcich to lead the team in targets this season with potential to secure a decent free agent contract in the offseason. Per Tony Ayo: "I think he's going to lead the team in targets this year. And I don't think that's a hot take, dude."

Geno Smith signed a one-year contract with the Jets and is facing assault allegations investigation. Tony Ayo notes this creates off-field distraction and negative headlines at a critical time for his return to New York, where the fan base and he had a poor parting of ways previously. The investigation may lead to eventual suspension, and home-life drama could bleed into professional performance. Per Tony Ayo: "This is not the buzz you want, especially returning to New York City, the media hub of all media hubs."

The source discusses 'Deebo Fatigue' as a primary theme, indicating draft hesitation and concern about Deebo's value proposition in best ball formats during the summer draft season. The fatigue framing suggests skepticism about his typical draft positioning and a reluctance to target him despite his historical profile.

Identified as a 'potential match made in fantasy heaven' with AJ Brown; suggests strong quarterback-receiver pairing upside and potential for elevated production in 2026.

Identified as a 'potential match made in fantasy heaven' with Drake May; suggests strong quarterback-receiver pairing upside and potential for elevated production in 2026.

Ranked RB9 in current rankings; analyst notes this is a conservative ranking relative to market expectations, suggesting downside risk or concern about McCaffrey's 2026 outlook despite his historical elite status.

Ranked RB9 (outside typical top-7 RB range); analyst avoiding in drafts; 450 touches last season at age 30 with injury history raises durability concerns; similar to Saquon last season—high workload may impact 2026 season; analyst prefers younger players with surer bets; injury history and age make him less attractive than other RB options at his ADP; analyst putting ranking where mouth is despite seeming crazy.

Late-round steal going at pick 163 (outside typical draft range); WR3 in Tampa offense with upside; Mike Evans gone, Chris Godwin aging and not fully healthy; if Godwin misses games, McMillan becomes WR2; crushed it down stretch as rookie (final four games, week 17 unbelievable game); trusted target for Baker Mayfield; costs nothing to throw dart; more meat on bone than given credit for; potential breakout candidate.

Coming off Achilles tear; will take time to recover; will need safety valve (Tyler Warren positioned to fill this role).

Great tight end prospect for 2026; Michael Pittman Jr. no longer on Colts means over-the-middle targets vacate; unlikely to go to Alec Pierce (paid $150M for go routes); Josh Downs likely alternative but analyst expects Tyler Warren to capture those middle-field targets; rookie proved he could handle safety valve role with Daniel Jones (coming off Achilles tear, will need safety valve); excellent value at current ADP; strong prospect despite sophomore slump concerns.

ADP in second round is too early and too rich; not necessarily a bust but positional value not worth it at that draft cost; better tight end options available later in draft; analyst would rather wait and grab TE later and find better positional value in second round.

Better for receivers in ability to add stability than as fantasy QB option; not worth drafting unless in super flex league; other higher upside QB options available.

Rookie tight end with more excitement than Jets' WR2 options; athletic profile supports development as safety valve for Geno Smith; recent rookie tight ends have performed well in NFL; position is much shallower than WR, making late-round flyer attractive.

One of two main Jets offensive weapons analyst is interested in investing in; primary RB target alongside Garrett Wilson.

Primary WR target for Jets; analyst interested in investing in him and Breece Hall as main Jets offensive weapons; Geno Smith provides stability for receivers even if not fantasy-relevant at QB position.

Part of best WR duo in fantasy football from one team (Dallas Cowboys); Cowboys will throw ball a ton; target share may decline slightly if defense improves (unlike last year's poor defense), but not significantly enough to impact rankings; if anything happens to Pickens, Lamb becomes immediate WR1.

Currently going in third round; analyst willing to reach at back of second round depending on league size; bet on himself last year and it worked out; attached to high-octane Cowboys offense with capable QB (Dak Prescott); enough production to support two fantasy-relevant WRs (Lamb and Pickens); ranked as low-end WR1; target share stable even with Lamb healthy (8.6 targets/game weeks 4-6 without Lamb, 8.1 targets/game weeks 7-18 with Lamb); fantasy numbers inflated by TDs while Lamb sidelined but pairing is strong; ADP fair at current price.

Currently RB8 with potential to move as high as RB5; bullish on second-year back in Los Angeles; offensive line back to health; addition of Charlie Kohler (highest-paid blocking TE in NFL) bolsters run game; Mike McDaniel (run game savant) should lift entire run game; every-down skill set positions him well for volume.

Moving to Houston as RB1 after sharing backfield with Jameer Gibbs in Detroit; volume forces rebound—Texans added no competition in draft, leaving only Woody Marks (flashed as rookie but not ready for primary role); projected 15-17 touches per game makes him low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 in deeper leagues; excellent value at ADP 69.9; serviceable every-down back with proven resourcefulness; RB31 in fantasy points per game last year due to limited volume, but scarcity at RB position makes him attractive.

Ranked WR11 with WR5 upside; marriage of skill sets with Drake May (QB4 in deep ball attempts, QB2 in air yards per attempt last year) is ideal for Brown, an elite vertical threat; over past four seasons, Brown has 18 receiving TDs on 20+ air yard throws—more than any other NFL player; will see massive target share with Stefan Diggs gone (Diggs drew 100+ targets last season while managing snaps post-ACL); has been top-13 WR in five of last six seasons.

Aaron Jones (RB, MIN) is #128 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 116.9 with a 138.8-point projection. Verdict: Jones is coming off career-worst YPC as 31yo committee back. The age cliff is here. Jones is 31 years old, isn't massively built, and has an injury history. He's also in the final year of his deal with a younger, bigger complement next to him.

Jordan Mason (RB, MIN) is #114 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 124.1 with a 120-point projection. Verdict: Mason needs the goal line role to be an RB3 in half PPR. The Vikings were 26th in scoring and 30th in plays last year with horrific QB play and bad OL luck. It wasn't an environment for RB fantasy points, especially when Mason and Aaron Jones split time. 4.

Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) is #67 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 75.3 with a 156.6-point projection. Verdict: Warren has FLEX floor with upside if Dowdle flops as FA signing. Warren ($7M cap hit) vs. Rico Dowdle ($5M guaranteed) is one of the most even competitions at starting RB this season, but I lean Warren for a couple of reasons. Warren is the incumbent, better pass protector, and better receiver.

David Montgomery (RB, HOU) is #64 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 49.4 with a 182.4-point projection. Verdict: Montgomery projects as a flex play in below-average Texans O. Montgomery was traded for to be the Texans starter. He will be. But that doesn't mean he's going to be a bellcow with Woody Marks available to spell him on passing situations.

Colston Loveland is featured in the 'Too Hot to Handle' segment, indicating he is a player with elevated draft costs and market expectations in 2026 fantasy football.

George Pickens is featured in the 'Too Hot to Handle' segment, indicating he is a player with elevated draft costs and market expectations in 2026 fantasy football.

Brenton Strange received a contract extension, which is discussed as part of the show's NFL news segment covering roster and role implications.

Kyle Pitts received a contract extension, which is discussed as part of the show's NFL news segment covering roster and role implications.

Jeremiyah Love is featured in the 'Too Hot to Handle' segment, suggesting he is a player with elevated draft costs and high market expectations in 2026 drafts.

Caleb Williams is discussed as part of the 'Too Hot to Handle' segment, indicating elevated draft costs and market expectations for the 2026 fantasy football season.

Excited to be kicking off the offseason divisional breakdown series with @​ChuckFBass! We talk about his guillotine experience, the NFC north division outlook, and whether or not he actually texted his ex when Ollie Gordon scored a touchdown on September 18th, 2025. Link below!