NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Saturday, July 11, 2026

“How Herbert adapts to less drop back in the offense and more quick game is also a question to be answered. But on paper, McDaniel and Herbert is a match made in heaven.”

Eagles' Saquon Barkley gives his pitch for LeBron James to come to Philadelphia: "If you want to go out with a bang, I feel like a great spot would be in Philly, and bringing a championship to Philadelphia... you'd be remembered forever." (via @​NBCSPhilly)

Tom Brady on A.J. Brown and the WR position: "I swear to God, it's just like déjà vu. It's like the Real Housewives of the NFL." (🎥 @​newheightshow, h/t @​MySportsUpdate)

Alec Pierce Reception total by season: 2025 - 47 2024 - 37 2023 - 32 2022 - 41 Pierce signed a 4 year $114M contract with Indy this offseason. How many REC does he have in 2026?

I am in full agreement on the Broncos section - the addition of Jaylen Waddle is huge If Waddle is deployed as the slot WR - his talent could make him a significant value When teams add a talent like his for a young QB - it can take things to the next level [Retweeted](

Me: "Is Dylan Sampson a cheaper Tyjae Spears or a more expensive Justice Hill?" Wife: "Shut the fuck up."

Me: "Is Dylan Sampson a cheaper Tyjae Spears or a more expensive Justice Hill?" Wife: "Shut the fuck up."

Me: "Is Dylan Sampson a cheaper Tyjae Spears or a more expensive Justice Hill?" Wife: "Shut the fuck up."

The Jadarian Price dilemma

RJ Harvey was quite bad as a rookie, top highlights vs. Bengals and Cowboys, got chain snatched by JK Dobbins who signed an extension, still dealing with torn labrum suffered in January, Jonah Coleman threat to mix in for short-yardage and pass-downs, but otherwise awesome pick. [Quoted](

Will Zay Flowers finish this season as a fantasy WR1?

Saw a bunch of De’Von Achane discussion here yesterday, here’s my two cents: The negatives: + Losing McDaniel is most likely a pretty big downgrade + Tua checking down constantly was a plus for Achane’s value. + The Dolphins are also slated to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL The positives: + Tua was straight up horrible these last 2 years, so very real chance Willis is just better + He’s an elite receiving back (top 4 among all RBs in TPRR, rec YPG, and % of team yds since 2021) with...

Saw a bunch of De’Von Achane discussion here yesterday, here’s my two cents: The negatives: + Losing McDaniel is most likely a pretty big downgrade + Tua checking down constantly was a plus for Achane’s value. + The Dolphins are also slated to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL The positives: + Tua was straight up horrible these last 2 years, so very real chance Willis is just better + He’s an elite receiving back (top 4 among all RBs in TPRR, rec YPG, and % of team yds since 2021) with...

Saw a bunch of De’Von Achane discussion here yesterday, here’s my two cents: The negatives: + Losing McDaniel is most likely a pretty big downgrade + Tua checking down constantly was a plus for Achane’s value. + The Dolphins are also slated to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL The positives: + Tua was straight up horrible these last 2 years, so very real chance Willis is just better + He’s an elite receiving back (top 4 among all RBs in TPRR, rec YPG, and % of team yds since 2021) with...

Will key additions by the Raiders be crucial for Ashton Jeanty’s success? [Retweeted](

How high can DeVonta Smith fly as the new Philadelphia Eagles WR1? His underlying charting data puts him in elite company 👀

Would be a great bit if Derek Carr just keeps saying this once every 3-4 months for the next 10+ years [Quoted](

Lawrence has strong chemistry with Parker Washington, particularly on in-breaking routes and middle-of-field throws. Article notes Washington 'filled void' for Lawrence after BTJ struggled with crossing routes. One comment: 'He's TLaw's guy and when the playoffs were on the line he turned to him.' Another: 'Him and Trevor are in sync.' Lawrence projected for 29 passing TDs (matching 2025). One comment suggests playing Lawrence on fantasy radar as hedge to Jaguars WR volatility.

Tight end in crowded Jaguars pass-catching room. Community mentions him as one of five potential pass catchers (BTJ, Meyers, Washington, Hunter, Strange) who could be fantasy-relevant. One comment: 'We all know that's actually Brenton Strange' (joking that he will be the breakout). Another: 'Brenton Strange is also going to get his.' Likely to see red-zone and intermediate targets but not a primary focus in 2026 projections.

Signed to $60M extension; brought in mid-2025 after Travis Hunter injury. Community views him as likely WR2 or co-WR2 with Parker Washington. One comment: 'Jakobi is going a whole round or two later than [Washington] and honestly I feel they'll post similar season stats.' Another: 'Washington and Meyers with the best floors.' Liam Coen has track record of producing efficient slot receivers (Wan'dale Robinson, Godwin). Meyers likely to see consistent targets but may cannibalize Washington's upside.

2024 rookie season: 298 yards, 1 TD in 7 games; significantly underperformed compared to Egbuka and Tet. 'Hunter is toast this year'; unlikely to be WR1 unless injuries occur; Jaguars drafted tight ends (Boerkircher, Koziol), signaling shift away from two-WR sets. Speculation he may play cornerback instead. One comment: 'no chance he's the number 1 unless there are a lot of injuries.'

2025 second-half performance disputed: article notes he was 'in and out of lineup, missing 3 games'; community data shows 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 3 receptions in post-injury games (avg 3 rec/game, ~7.5 PPR points/game in second half). Playoff game: 9.1 points vs. Parker Washington 20.1. Concerns: short-arming passes, hesitant over middle, no separation. Jakobi Meyers signed to $60M extension, suggesting BTJ may be WR3 despite draft pedigree. Jaguars rumored not trading him, indicating recovery expected, but community skeptical of his role in crowded room.

2025 stats: 58 rec, 875 yards, 5 TD on 95 targets; snap share 46.58% first 5 games, 75.25% weeks 6–playoffs; 55.52% outside, 43.06% slot; EPA +0.077 per play on field vs. -0.040 off field. Article projects 82.2 rec, 987 yards, 7 TD, 21% target share at ADP 74. Community split: supporters cite contested-catch rate, late-season surge (350 yards, 2 TD in final 3 weeks), and Lawrence chemistry; skeptics worry about target saturation (Meyers, BTJ, Hunter, Strange), small sample size, and Gabe Davis comparison. Consensus he earned targets rather than benefiting from injury luck, but disagreement on sustainability with crowded WR room.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is being drafted ahead of JSN in the source's preference due to JSN's regression risk; St. Brown offers more reliable production without the same structural headwinds facing JSN in 2025.

Sam Darnold's 2024 elite deep-ball accuracy was the primary driver of JSN's breakout season. Darnold ranked first of 149 quarterbacks over the past five years in highly accurate throw rate on attempts of 20+ yards downfield. This elite performance is unlikely to be maintained, creating significant regression risk for his pass catchers in 2025.

The speaker is most in on Dallas Goddert at ADP among Eagles pass catchers. Goddert has been targeted over the middle of the field at decent rates by Hurts in the past and has zero playing time concerns—will be out there for effectively every route.

The speaker is most in on DeVonta Smith at ADP among Eagles pass catchers. Smith will be worked in the slot with plenty of targets; he has been targeted over the middle of the field at decent rates by Hurts in the past and has zero playing time concerns—will be out there for effectively every route.

The speaker prefers Chase Brown as a draft bet over Saquon Barkley in round two, indicating better value or upside relative to Saquon's ADP.

Barkley had the highest RB target share under Jalen Hurts last year at 10.7%; while AJ Brown's departure could theoretically increase his target volume, the Eagles added other pass catchers to the offense, and the speaker is not fully convinced the target share will rise meaningfully. Rushing efficiency gains (e.g., 4.5 to 5 yards per carry) from Manion's under-center scheme are overrated in fantasy; the real money in PPR is target share, and Barkley would need either 50+ catches or 2,000 rushing yards to reach 20+ PPG, neither of which is likely given Hurts's historical reluctance to dump down to RBs. The speaker finds himself drafting more Saquon than desired; when zooming out on implied points, the Eagles' top-15 offensive output and top-5 OL suggest he should be valuable, but he is overexposed to him at his ADP relative to the actual upside case. However, the thought experiment around under-center play-calling and potential pass-game involvement has made the speaker not totally out on Saquon in round two; he thinks Saquon is kind of fine where he goes, though he prefers Omar Khan and Chase Brown as bets.

Cousins has not gone under center much since tearing his Achilles, severely limiting his ability to run Kubiak's efficient play-action offense which requires quarterback mobility and the ability to turn his back to the defense. Kubiak is constrained by having to keep Cousins in shotgun, unable to actually run an under-center offense, which may force the team to turn to Fernando Mendoza sooner than expected if Cousins proves too restrictive for the offensive scheme.

Mendoza is expected to enter the Raiders offense by week 4–5 as a potential under-center alternative to Kirk Cousins, who has not gone under center much since tearing his Achilles and is limited in running Kubiak's efficient play-action offense. Mendoza could be very efficient, similar to Sam Darnold's 2024 performance. While not fantasy-relevant in redraft leagues, Mendoza is worth adding to Raiders stacks in best-ball formats as a three-quarterback build piece; the speaker is highly confident he plays weeks 15–17 when fantasy playoffs matter and can be taken essentially for free at his current ADP.

Kubiak named Trey Tucker first when asked about standout wide receivers, then grouped him with Pro Bowl-level talents Max Crosby and Colton Miller when discussing veterans who can contribute. Tucker was heavily used on deep play action last year, with his air yard share nearly doubling when the Raiders rarely used play action. He has more production history than Jaylen Naylor, who is currently going ahead of Tucker in ADP. This is a best-ball-only play; Tucker doesn't matter in managed leagues.

Speaker has been 'kind of back and forth' on Brock Bowers in Kubiak's offense but is intrigued by his potential. Kubiak can execute efficient play-action passing, which could benefit Bowers; however, speaker leans toward Ashton Genty if forced to choose one tight end given the Raiders' expected slow, run-heavy offensive approach and low Vegas implied point total (28th in league). Speaker cautions against letting receiver analysis like Trey Tucker distract from Bowers, similar to how Tory Horton analysis caused them to miss on JSN last year.

Projected as fantasy WR1 in year two under McDaniel. Rationale: (1) most complete receiver skill set in the offense; (2) excels on short routes and benefits from McDaniel's quick-release philosophy; (3) inherits target volume from Keenan Allen's departure; (4) underrated downfield threat—fourth-best yards per route on go routes over past four seasons, just ahead of Tyreek Hill; (5) efficiency gains from healthier offensive line and reduced target competition will compound. Speaker acknowledges paying premium ADP on sharper platforms but views it as justified given the fit and efficiency upside.

Historical precedent for McDaniel's elite backfield production: in 2023, Mostert and rookie Devon Achane both averaged over 17 fantasy points per game and finished as top-five running backs, demonstrating McDaniel's ability to support multiple fantasy-relevant backs simultaneously.

Rookie RB1 in McDaniel's 2023 Dolphins offense, averaging over 17 fantasy points per game and finishing as a top-five running back; serves as historical precedent for future backfield production under McDaniel's system.

JSN's 2024 breakout season will be extremely difficult to replicate in 2025 due to multiple regression factors: (1) Sam Darnold's elite deep-ball accuracy (first of 149 QBs over 5 years in highly accurate throw rate on 20+ yard attempts) created most of JSN's big plays and fantasy points; (2) JSN scored 26% of his fantasy points on just 16 deep play-action targets, with the average receiver regressing from 79 to 36 fantasy points year-over-year on such plays; (3) JSN had the fourth-fewest red-zone targets of any elite WR1 (one per game), and new OC Brian Flory emphasizes rushing attacks in the red zone rather than passing; (4) JSN was five points above his volume-based expectation (XFP), suggesting significant positive variance. Drafting him fifth overall is risky given these structural headwinds. Seattle example: JSN got 'super juiced' but limited secondary options, cautionary tale for Chargers under McDaniel where depth may suffer despite offensive efficiency gains.

Chargers RB facing multiple headwinds: (1) questioned as fit in Mike McDaniel's zone scheme with potential committee concern similar to Kamani Vidal situation, though Ron Stewart downplayed these concerns as overthinking; (2) late-round draft option facing limited snap support—Chargers offense may not run enough total plays to support fantasy-relevant snap amounts for all roster pieces, forcing prioritization toward most efficient targets rather than secondary options; (3) even with potential gadget play role, faces structural constraints. McDaniel's backfields average 20–25 expected fantasy points per game, providing margin for error if Mitchell gets involved, but snap volume scarcity limits upside.

Hyper-mobile QB cited as a late-round cheat code that has outperformed ADP and posted strong playoff win rates in ESPN managed leagues since 2022, alongside Jaden Daniels and Drake May in their respective years.

Hyper-mobile QB cited as a late-round cheat code that has outperformed ADP and posted strong playoff win rates in ESPN managed leagues since 2022, alongside Drake May and Justin Fields in their respective years.

Hyper-mobile QB who has outperformed ADP and posted strong playoff win rates since 2022; benefited from coaching change impact in fantasy when his offense got a new play caller.

Steve Weiss identifies Zay Flowers as the primary receiving option for the Ravens, noting that there is not a lot of depth at wide receiver or tight end outside of him. This highlights a significant roster concern for Baltimore entering training camp.

Steve Weiss questions whether edge Mike Green will ever materialize on offense for the Ravens, framing his development as an unanswered question for the team entering training camp.

Steve Weiss mentions that Calais Campbell just had a horrible tragedy, which is framed as an unanswered question for the Ravens defense entering training camp.

Steve Weiss notes that the Baltimore Ravens have Trey Hendrickson on the edge as part of their defensive roster entering training camp, though the Ravens defense faces several unanswered questions regarding depth and health at other positions.

Mark Ross notes that the Eagles are attempting to supplement their passing game with rookie Makai Lemon following A.J. Brown's departure to the Patriots. This represents a significant role opportunity for the rookie, though it remains an unanswered question whether he can fill the void left by Brown.

Mark Ross identifies A.J. Brown's departure to the Patriots as a significant loss for the Eagles offense. Brown is described as Jalen Hurts' security blanket and a prolific playmaker, and his absence creates a gap that the Eagles are attempting to fill with rookie Makai Lemon in the passing game.

Mark Ross notes that Jalen Hurts plays his best when the run game is going, allowing him to operate play-action and be comfortable in the pocket. The question is whether he can get back to the form he showed two years ago, contingent on Saquon Barkley's health and the offensive line staying intact. The loss of A.J. Brown as his security blanket adds uncertainty to his receiving options.

Mark Ross highlights Saquon Barkley's health and return to form as a critical unanswered question for the Eagles entering training camp. The Eagles' offensive line injuries last year affected Barkley's production, and the question is whether he can get back to being the Saquon Barkley that was tearing up the league two years ago. His recovery is framed as foundational to the Eagles' offensive success and Jalen Hurts' ability to operate the play-action game.

Adam Rink references Micah Parsons' earlier statement that Caleb Williams is the best player in the NFL, noting the irony of Parsons now defending Jordan Love's ranking while having previously championed Williams.

Adam Rink highlights Jordan Love's ranking at number 72 on the NFL Top 100 as controversial and too low; Micah Parsons publicly disagreed with the ranking on Twitter, stating he doesn't know 71 players better than Jordan Love. Rink notes this is particularly notable given Parsons had previously called Caleb Williams the best player in the NFL.

Marcus Allen expresses confidence in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' Super Bowl chances; Allen notes Mahomes is the centerpiece of a talented team and that anytime Mahomes is healthy, there's an opportunity for the Chiefs to be in the running for the Super Bowl. Allen describes Mahomes as phenomenal.

Terron Arnold suffered a shoulder injury in October against the Bengals that caused him to miss the remainder of the 2025 season; he is now a free agent after the Lions released him in late June following his arrest on felony charges. Multiple teams (Colts, Texans, Seahawks, Jets) are expressing interest, and Arnold worked out for Houston with potential visits to other teams expected. Mark Ross notes Arnold has been a disappointment as a first-round pick at the Lions, and teams will need to evaluate both his health status and off-field concerns before signing him.

Jason Kelce notes the Eagles added Makai Lemon as part of their offensive personnel changes to replace AJ Brown.

Jason Kelce confirms the Eagles lost AJ Brown, described as a phenomenal player, as part of the offensive personnel changes heading into the 2024 season.

Jason Kelce notes Saquon Barkley remains a key piece of the Eagles offense despite the coaching change and loss of AJ Brown; Barkley is part of the talent base that still exists in the building alongside a great offensive line.

Jason Kelce reports optimism around Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense under new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion; the system will feature Green Bay-style McVay concepts with under-center play action and outside zone, while still calling plays that suit Hurts' game. Kelce emphasizes the system marries up well with running, passing, and motions, making it hard to defend, and expresses excitement about how Hurts will run the new system.

Sauce Gardner was a big part of the Colts' off-season after being acquired at the trading deadline last year. The Colts spent on this move and Gardner is showing well in off-season work. Under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, the defense is expected to continue improving as the guys work together and understand what Anarumo is looking for.

Anthony Richardson, the former first-round draft pick, lost his starting job to Daniel Jones due to injuries and inconsistencies. He suffered a fractured orbital eye socket injury from a pre-game stretching incident. Richardson participated in off-season workouts and by most accounts did pretty well. He has an opportunity to showcase himself as potential trade bait if he has a strong pre-season, as he requested a trade at the start of the off-season (later rescinded as he took a professional approach to the off-season). Riley Leonard is the other backup.

Daniel Jones was cleared to do everything starting at the outset of training camp, per his statement in the Athletic. His injuries were the before-and-after of the Colts' run last year. The medical staff will bring him along at certain paces to ensure he's ready by Week 1, but he's been participating in off-season work including OTAs and minicamp.

There is a perception that Jaylen Waddle will be the alpha receiver with Courtland Sutton as the beta, though this assumption is being questioned.

Courtland Sutton had an excellent season last year but is being drafted in the 90s, which seems undervalued given his recent performance.

Michael Pitman Jr. was traded away by the Colts despite having three seasons over 140 targets, clearing the path for Alec Pierce to become the alpha receiver.

Josh Downs is a slot-only player who is frequently injured and unable to stay on the field, creating vacated targets for Alec Pierce.

Pierce is the best deep threat in football over the last three years (second only to Tyreek Hill), and if he starts getting screens and curl routes, there is significant upside in an offense that was leading the league in passing yards.

Brett Whitefield is all-in on Pierce because he cannot logically believe an NFL team handed a guy $30 million to not use him as their premier wide receiver, especially with vacated targets from Josh Downs' injury issues.

Pierce is a 95th percentile athlete by sport score with excellent intermediate route-running skills (digs, slants, posts, comebacks, hitches) that were masked by inaccurate quarterback play in college.

The Colts gave Pierce $30 million and traded away Michael Pitman Jr. (who had three seasons over 140 targets), clearly paving the way for Pierce to take on the alpha receiver role.

Alec Pierce ranks second only to Tyreek Hill in deep fantasy points per game over the last two years and could break leagues if he starts getting more short to intermediate targets after the Colts traded away Michael Pitman Jr.

Tyreek Hill is considered to have had the biggest impact at a single position in the NFL and is part of the Mount Rushmore of wide receivers alongside Randy Moss, Megatron, and Jerry Rice.

Alec Pierce received significant investment from the Colts GM and head coach, who are expecting him to produce after giving him substantial money.

Patrick Mahomes gets more credit than Tyreek Hill for the Chiefs' success, but Mahomes cannot hit a deep ball anymore and his success is largely dependent on Hill's presence.

Justin Herbert is the best quarterback a McDaniel-tree coach has ever had, with potential to elevate McDaniel's offensive system in a way previous QBs like Tua could not.

Tua's success in Miami is entirely dependent on Tyreek Hill; without Hill, the offense was one of the worst in the league, and Tua's contract value is largely attributable to Hill's presence rather than his own arm talent.

Tyreek Hill's on-off splits show the Miami offense is dramatically worse without him—EPA per play drops to bottom five, EPA per run drops by double, and yards per carry drops by 1.5 yards, making him the most valuable non-QB offensive player of his generation.

Sutton is being drafted just after Alec Pierce in the current draft landscape, part of an interesting valuation sweet spot among wide receivers.

Pierce is being drafted one pick ahead of Courtland Sutton in the current draft landscape, creating an interesting valuation sweet spot in the wide receiver tier.

Drake London was mentioned as an example of a talented receiver who struggled in an Arthur Smith offense, contrasting with George Pickens' success in that system.

DK Metcalf was mentioned as an example of a talented receiver who struggled in an Arthur Smith offense, similar to Drake London.

Pickens' yards per target over expectation stat of 1.73 over a three-year span is top three in the league, demonstrating elite efficiency.

Pickens represents elite wide receiver value as a second option in the Cowboys passing game, making him an attractive alternative to taking CD Lamb in round one when both are productive.

Even controlling for CD Lamb's injury, Pickens was the alpha in the Cowboys passing game after the bye week (week 11 onward) when Lamb was fully healthy, outproducing Lamb in that stretch.

George Pickens' statistical profile over the last three years is basically tied with Jamar Chase in key metrics, which is a shocking revelation that contradicts the perception he could be Jamar Chase tier talent.

Brett Whitefield is worried about CeeDee Lamb and considers him the biggest landmine first round pick, noting he was outscored by 90 fantasy points by George Pickens when both were on the field together last year.

George Pickens is a complete alpha receiver who excels at the catch point, has improved route running, makes circus catches, can play multiple positions (X, big slot, Z), and outscored CD Lamb by 90 fantasy points when on the field together last year.

TZ Johnson was phenomenal last year as a rookie and was an analytics darling, though his skill set as a slot-only type is traditionally harder for the NFL to project.

Ted Hurst is a rookie who appears to be the only player on the roster with the build and skill set to play X receiver, though it's unclear if coaches see it that way.

McMillan is splitting wide receiver three duties with Amika Ibuka, indicating a crowded receiver room at Tampa Bay.

McMillan could potentially lead the team in fantasy points, though the analyst feels the Tampa Bay receiver situation is a tough puzzle to figure out.

Godwin is going much cheaper than Ibuka in drafts, making him a potentially interesting alternative in the crowded Tampa Bay receiver situation.

Godwin could potentially lead the team in fantasy points, though the analyst feels it's a tough puzzle to figure out given the crowded receiver room.

Baker Mayfield was on the injury report 11 different times with 25 different injuries and had the league's worst catchable target rate after the first five-week stretch.

Baker Mayfield played with a blown-out shoulder for the final six or seven games of the season, which likely impacted his performance and his receivers' production.

Baker Mayfield played with a blown-out shoulder for the final six or seven games of last season, which likely impacted Amika Buuka's receiving production.

Rome Odunze (London) is strongly preferred as a pairing with Puka Nacua at 10th overall in a 10-team PPR three-WR league, with Scott Barrett expressing he 'really like[s] London this year.'

Saquon Barkley is the second choice after London to pair with Puka Nacua at 10th overall in a 10-team PPR three-WR league.

AJ Brown is listed as a potential pairing option with Puka Nacua at 10th overall in a 10-team PPR three-WR league, though London is preferred.

Puka Nacua at 10th overall in a 10-team PPR league with three wide receiver starts is considered good value, with London recommended as the pairing pick.

Christian McCaffrey, along with Bejan Robinson and Gibbs, is viewed as a different caliber of dual-threat running back compared to other pass-catching backs in the league.

Kevin Stefansky's poor head coaching (F-tier ranking) is a downside concern, as he ran split backfields even with Nick Chubb in Cleveland, potentially limiting Robinson's fantasy value.

Bejan Robinson had over 100 targets last year with more receiving fantasy points per game than Lad Makanki, functioning as a dual-threat weapon that should provide both floor and ceiling upside.

Henry is ranked 101 overall and is considered a league-breaking pick alongside Bijan Robinson at 102, comparable to elite backs from fantasy football's glory days.

Nacua has outscored Jamarr Chase every year of his career except for one, suggesting he may be a better pick than Chase in the early rounds.

Chase is awesome but the Rams wide receiver one has outscored him every year of his career except for one, raising questions about whether Puka Nacua might be the better pick.

Robinson's situation is further complicated by Kevin Stefanski being a poor head coach, ranked in the F tier by analysts, which could limit his upside.

Robinson has a downside case that hasn't been discussed much: the Falcons' offensive line is in decline after losing right tackle Caleb McGary to retirement and Drew Dolman in free agency, with below-average replacements.

Robinson is ranked 102 overall and is considered a league-breaking pick comparable to the glory days of fantasy football when elite backs like LaDainian Tomlinson went 101 and Priest Holmes went 102.

Robinson had more receiving fantasy points per game than Lad Mani and Alec Pierce last season as a pass catcher, and with Tyler Allgeier gone, he could be a league-breaking pick at 102 overall.

Robinson could have a 10,000 yard season and break leagues, hitting 30 fantasy points in five of his last eight games and finishing with the 12th most yards from scrimmage in NFL history.

Douglas benefits from Drake May's tendency to spread targets evenly among receivers, getting opportunities when Stefon Diggs doesn't have big games.

Diggs has inconsistent target distribution under Drake May, who spreads the wealth among receivers; Diggs will have big games followed by disappearances as targets go to Deario Douglas and Kaylen Bouty.

Brown is getting up there in age, Matt Harmon noted a decline on film, and injury experts like Jeff Mueller suggest he may be a player to get out on a year early rather than a year late.

Brown played for the Titans and Eagles, offenses that ranked bottom three in passing yards per game, while the Patriots ranked top three last year, suggesting he may have more opportunity to break out.

London started the season with an AC sprain injury and suffered a PCL injury that caused him to miss games.

Before his PCL injury, London averaged 10.5 targets per game, 109 yards per game, and 24.5 fantasy points per game, hitting 100 yards in five of six games, suggesting he could be in the Jamarr Chase and Puka Nacua range.

While AJ Brown has upside potential from his accomplishments on the Titans and Eagles in bottom-three passing yard offenses, the Patriots ranked top three in passing yards per game last year, which could help him break out.

Brett has concerns that AJ Brown is not the same guy he was, citing GPS data showing drop-offs over the last two years that could be injury or scheme-related, and worries about inherent risk in a new environment.

London was setting the world on fire before his PCL injury and looked like he should be in the Jamarr Chase and Puka Nacua range of elite receivers.

Brett prefers Drake London in round two, making an exception to his running back preference. London averaged 10.5 targets per game, 109 yards per game, and 24.5 fantasy points per game before his PCL injury, hitting 100 yards in 5 of 6 games and looking like a major league winner.

Skylar Bell was drafted by Buffalo in the fourth round, worth mentioning as part of their offensive additions alongside DJ Moore.

Terrace Marshall Jr. is considered mediocre at best as one of Miami's new wide receiver additions and is unlikely to provide meaningful fantasy value.

Tutu Atwell is considered mediocre at best as one of Miami's new wide receiver additions and is unlikely to provide meaningful fantasy value.

Jalen Tolbert is considered mediocre at best as one of Miami's new wide receiver additions and is unlikely to provide meaningful fantasy value.

Greg Dulcich is a great sleeper pick for Miami with 2.38 yards per route run efficiency on low snaps; he's likely to be the number one receiving option outside of Achane and offers upside despite the team's offensive struggles.

Malik Willis is a QB stash candidate late in drafts due to his mobility; he ran for 41, 73, and 60 yards in his three starts with Green Bay, demonstrating significant rushing upside.

Chris Bell, a third-round draft pick for Miami, tore his knee and is unlikely to be a reliable fantasy option given his injury history and the team's offensive struggles.

Caleb Douglas, a third-round draft pick for Miami, is mentioned as a potential surprise breakout candidate if you want to take a shot on one of their rookies, but carries significant risk given the team's offensive struggles.

Malik Washington is described as a complete and total dart throw at the very end of late drafts for the Dolphins, with minimal expectations given the team's depleted receiving corps.

Dalton Kincaid is a sleeper tight end candidate available in double-digit rounds (round 11+) after recovering from knee injuries; he led all tight ends in yards per route run (2.73) last year and reports feeling the best he's felt in years.

DJ Moore reunites with Joe Brady (his former OC in Carolina) and is available in the sixth round, offering upside if he becomes the alpha target with 150 targets, but carries risk given his age (29, year 8) and recent poor performance in Chicago.

Josh Allen is described as a solid pick at any point, with historical data showing teams that drafted him made the playoffs regardless of round (second, third, or later), making him a reliable fantasy asset.

James Cook is described as a true workhorse in the same breath as elite running backs like B. Johns and CMC, with 11 games of 80-plus rushing yards (most in the NFL) and high floor/ceiling despite TD regression from 16 to 12 rushing TDs.

Hunter Henry was TE6 last year with 768 yards and 7 TDs, but the addition of A.J. Brown and Romeo Dobbs reduces his red zone opportunities, making him less attractive than Dallas Goddert in late-round tight end selections.

Romeo Dobbs is a capable wide receiver going to an MVP-caliber quarterback in Drake May and is barely being drafted as a WR4, making him a potential league contributor by week 8 with enough production to be a WR3 or flex play.

A.J. Brown goes to a team with a much higher pass rate than the Eagles and is the clear #1 target, making him a significant upgrade from his Eagles situation where he was WR10 despite missing games.

A.J. Brown is ranked #9 overall but has the ceiling to finish at #1 at wide receiver. He's a steal in drafts and will demand the ball with Drake May, who is a better passer than Jalen Hurts.

Ramondre Stevenson was a solid player for the Patriots last year and could remain the starter for at least the first quarter of the season, with a range of outcomes including being the goal-line back and primary passing-down back.

Henderson's ADP in the fourth round carries significant risk given that Ramondre Stevenson was the starter for the first quarter of the season and could remain the primary back, making the ADP gap between the two problematic.

Travion Henderson is a sensational player who, if given the keys to the backfield, will produce great fantasy results. He had 1,100 total yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie on 46% of snaps, suggesting significant upside if he takes over the timeshare.

Drake May's playoff performance was concerning: 58% completion percentage, 6 TDs and 4 INTs, and 21 sacks across three games against elite defenses (Denver, Seattle, Houston, Chargers), suggesting vulnerability against top-tier competition.

Drake May's addition of A.J. Brown is a huge deal for his fantasy prospects, as he did not have an alpha receiver to throw to last year and made it work anyway.

Drake May was QB3 in fantasy last year but faces regression risk due to a harder schedule, Super Bowl hangover, and a young team. He's projected to finish around QB5 range this year despite the addition of A.J. Brown.

Jordan Tyson was drafted by the Saints this year and is a really good player, but functions as a complementary piece to Chris Olave rather than a primary target.

Olave could be in position to have his best season as a pro and feels like he's being drafted at his floor as an absolute target magnet.

With Taysom Hill expected to take a big step forward and Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator, the Saints offense is positioned to be fantasy football-friendly, with Olave as the focal point.

In games with Taysom Hill starting last year, Olave averaged 18.8 points per game across eight games, suggesting strong upside with Hill under center.

Olave led the NFL with 150+ targets and 100 catches last year, ranking fifth in receptions, seventh in receiving yards, and tied for sixth in touchdown grabs with nine among all wide receivers.

Olave is projected as a third-round pick in FFPC and Underdog, with potential to be WR1 overall given his 29% target share and history of leading the league in targets and catches.

Prescott is very cheap this year with plenty of upside available late at the quarterback position.

Herbert is described as a really awesome upside swing at quarterback and is quite cheap in current drafts.

Mahomes is going around the 11th round and has been absolutely dominant in FFPC scoring, making his current ADP a great value.

Daniels earned strong draft capital as a rookie and the analyst regrets not being higher on him initially; he's now getting a second opportunity to be aggressive about him despite injury concerns.

Daniels has fallen from being drafted in the 3-4 turn last year to the 8th round this year, creating significant value; he has rushing upside and could benefit from potential receiver additions like Debo or Diggs.

Irving has a high ceiling as a player with good receiving and running ability, but situation concerns limit his ultimate ceiling; he's a round four pick with thinner margins for reaching his ceiling.

Rodriguez is likely to have a role in the backfield, adding to the depth chart concerns for Tutin.

Irving has a high ceiling as a player with good receiving ability and good enough running ability on a good offense, though the situation makes it harder to see the ceiling breaking his way.

Pollard has split concerns and the analyst is much more concerned about how much he has left in the tank.

Price is mentioned as the next running back off the board in the late fifth/sixth round range with a two-down profile.

Warren is now dealing with being in a split and has Rico Dow to contend with on an offense the analyst is not especially excited about.

Gainwell is viewed as a problem that could cap Irving's receiving upside, though he was the 1B back last year with 87 targets while Warren had 43, creating a split in receiving work.

Irving represents a league-winning ADP value in the late fifth/sixth round despite concerns about Kenny Gainwell and Tucker capping his receiving upside; the discount is enough to embrace the risk given his young age, proven receiving ability through two years, and solid offensive context.

Swift is not a workhorse but rather a good receiver who will probably be a 1A back on his team, a profile similar to Bucky Irving's.

Despite receiving and rushing risks, Irving is worth buying at his current ADP as he's falling behind running backs like DeAndre Swift, whom the analyst believes Irving is probably still better than.

Irving has rushing upside if he can regain the rushing efficiency he had as a rookie, and the Buccaneers' offensive line should be better this year than it was to start last year.

Irving flashed as a strong receiver in his rookie season and followed that up with actually a strong receiving performance in his second year, demonstrating consistent elite receiving ability.

Irving had 98 yards after catch over expected, which was eighth best among running backs in only 10 games played, suggesting he would have been among league leaders in a full season.

Irving was RB5 in ESPN's receiver metric over the last two seasons and RB5 last year as well, demonstrating consistent elite receiving production.

Gainwell has risen to running back 33 with occasional seventh round appearances, and his addition to the Buccaneers is concerning as it could cap Irving's receiving upside.

Irving's poor rushing efficiency last year was partly attributable to the Buccaneers' offensive line being an absolute mess early in the season with multiple starters out of position, which eventually improved but after Irving was injured.

Irving's rushing efficiency in his second year was quite bad according to advanced metrics on NextGen, a significant disappointment compared to his strong rookie rushing performance.

Irving is falling to the middle of the sixth round (6.6 ADP in FFPC) and represents a value opportunity despite second-year rushing efficiency concerns, as he remains the favorite to be the starting running back and has elite receiving metrics.

Kenneth Gainwell has risen to running back 33 with occasional seventh round appearances, converging with Bucky Irving's ADP after a period where he was considered more appealing.

Irving was really good out of the gate last year with outstanding usage, and despite dealing with injuries and off-field issues, he's now sitting at a price point that may represent good value for his second season.

Bucky Irving has dropped to running back 25 and mid-sixth round ADP (6.06), converging with Kenneth Gainwell's price after falling from earlier season expectations, creating a potential value opportunity.

Likely is mentioned as having moved up towards the upper-middle-class tight end tier in ADP alongside KD.

Pitts is part of the upper-middle-class tight end tier where there is perceived value in tight end premium formats, alongside Craft, Leaporta, and Njoku.

Kmet is mentioned as part of the upper-middle-class tight end tier alongside Pitts, Craft, and Leaporta where there is perceived value in tight end premium formats.

Njoku is a strong bet on target earning ability at an ADP where you'd typically be fading tight ends, similar to where Carson Loveland and Tyler Warren were being drafted.

Njoku projects for a really strong role with over 100 targets and has upside to be the clear number one target on his team with tight end premium scoring (1.5 PPR).

Njoku has established himself as the number one target on the Browns and should maintain that role even with the addition of rookie receivers Conpsion and Boston.

Njoku is being undervalued despite demonstrating elite target-earning ability as a prospect and in his rookie season. He's available in the fifth or sixth round but has upside to be the clear number one target on the Browns, which is atypical for a tight end at that ADP.

Njoku was completely displaced by rookie Harold Fannon Jr. last season and has since moved to the Los Angeles Chargers, ending his tenure with his previous team.

Tyler Warren is going in the early third round and showed a lot as a rookie tight end with second-year upside, though his production hasn't yet matched the immediate impact of Fannon Jr.

Loveland is being drafted at the end of the second round and shows second-year upside as a rookie tight end, though there are questions about why his playing time hasn't increased more given his 10th overall draft pedigree.

Despite being undersized and not a dominant run blocker, Fannon Jr. operates more like a Mark Andrews type tight end who splits into the slot, and his strong rookie production signals he can sustain high target volume.

Fannon Jr. had the best yards per route run (3.77) ever recorded by a college tight end, making him the most productive and efficient college tight end ever, and he has already proven this translates to the NFL.

Fannon Jr. earned his role as a number one target in the offense as a rookie tight end, beating out the established pass-catching David Njoku, demonstrating he can operate as a primary receiving option.

As a 21-year-old rookie, Fannon Jr. was the youngest tight end in football and completely displaced David Njoku, and he looks like the odds-on favorite to lead his team in targets again this season.

Fannon Jr. presents exceptional value in round six of tight end premium formats like FFPC, offering second-year upside comparable to higher-drafted tight ends like Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.

Mentioned as a first-round wide receiver with higher ADP than Lemon in FFPC drafts.

Currently positioned as a 1B to AJ Brown, with potential for Lemon to become a 1B to Smith by season's end.

Positioned as the primary wide receiver in Eagles offense with potential for Lemon to become a 1B option.

Mentioned in context of Eagles offense and wide receiver depth chart positioning.

Smith's role in the Eagles offense over the previous two seasons is being used as a comparable for what Malik Lemon's role could look like in Philadelphia.

Bryant started to get worked in more for the Broncos down the stretch, indicating increased involvement in the offense.

Franklin showed flashes as a potential number one receiver for the Broncos at times during the season but was unable to take away the role from Sutton permanently.

Dobbins is the Broncos' lead runner, but the offense is expected to be pass-heavy with spread concepts and pace rather than built on a ground-and-pound philosophy.

Multiple expert analysts including Derrick Brown (WR10), Jacob Gibbs, and Nelson Souza are bullish on Waddle, yet actual drafters are not pushing his ADP up, creating continued value.

Waddle is positioned to dominate targets in the Broncos' pass-heavy offense and should see a significant gap widen between him and Sutton as the offseason progresses.

Waddle is a smash at his current ADP and could go 10 picks earlier without concern; he represents strong value despite being drafted around WR20.

Sutton's target share dropped significantly by 4% and his first-read rate was way down in 2024 versus 2025, indicating a diminished role in the offense.

Sutton is a fade at his current ADP cost; he should be going lower than where he is currently being drafted.

Sutton had his least efficient season in a long time at 1.53 yards per route run and showed red flags in efficiency metrics. The Broncos' acquisition of Jaylen Waddle signals they are moving away from Sutton as their primary receiver.

Sutton had a number of red flags last year efficiency-wise, with concerns about his role as the offense appeared to be tilting toward Troy Franklin as the potential number one receiver.

Waddle has the ability to win downfield and get targets underneath as a yak producer, with versatility to play both slot and outside receiver positions, entering an offense that should be pass-heavy with spread concepts and pace.

Waddle is a huge value at WR23 ADP on Underdog, going behind older receivers lacking his upside. He's a proven first-round talent entering year six with 2.07 career yards per route run, elite efficiency, and versatility (played 60% slot as rookie with 1,000+ yards, now outside), similar to Stefon Diggs' trajectory.

Mecole Hardman is mentioned as one of the hyped receivers alongside Luther Burks, but McMillan outproduced both in his rookie season with 122 targets and 1,400 receiving yards.

Pat Kerrane had Travis Hunter ranked as the number one wide receiver in his pre-draft rankings because he was getting nervous about where Tedaroa McMillan was going to be selected.

Bryce Young is being underutilized by the Panthers offense, with the team not showing willingness to give him more volume or allow him to freelance and make plays, which is limiting the offense's potential.

McMillan led his receiver group with 122 targets, 70 catches, 1,400 receiving yards, and a 25% target share in his rookie season, outproducing other hyped receivers like Mecole Hardman and Luther Burks.

McMillan is the clear number one receiver on the Panthers with no significant competition from other receivers or tight ends, giving him a strong target moat over Jaylen Coker and Chris Brazzle.

McMillan had 1.85 yards per route run as a rookie, ran almost 600 routes including playoffs, and is a traditional outside wide receiver who earns targets downfield and excels after the catch, comparable to Michael Pitman with more upside.

Pat Kerrane is bullish on McMillan at his current ADP in the fourth round, viewing him as an elite prospect with strong rookie production (1.85 yards per route run, 600 routes) being undervalued due to Bryce Young concerns. He sees McMillan as having ceiling upside to potentially transform the Panthers offense at a discount relative to his talent level.

Jordan Tyson was drafted by the Saints and is really good, but functions as a complementary piece to Chris Olave that should help the overall offense improve rather than diminish Olave's role.

In eight games with Tyler Shuck starting last year, Olave averaged 18.8 points per game, demonstrating strong production with improved QB play.

Olave's 29% target share last year was fantastic, and he feels like a floor pick at third round ADP given his elite target volume and potential for WR1 overall production.

Olave led the NFL in targets (150+) and catches (100) last year, ranking fifth in receptions among all WRs, seventh in receiving yards, and tied for sixth in touchdown grabs with nine.

Chris Olave is projected as a third-round pick in FFPC and Underdog, with potential to be in position for his best season as a pro given improved QB play and offensive scheme.

#Colts QB Daniel Jones on his Achilles rehab: “I’m doing everything. Cleared to do everything. I think it’s just about, at this point, sharpening that.” Does he still think about his Achilles? “You’re still thinking about it. I think (you) probably will until you get playing.” [Retweeted](

Which dark horse QB has the best chance of finishing as the overall QB1?

Which dark horse QB has the best chance of finishing as the overall QB1?

Which dark horse QB has the best chance of finishing as the overall QB1?