NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Friday, July 10, 2026
A crawlable daily synthesis of the player-specific takes STACKED extracted from monitored podcasts, videos, articles, and social posts.
Players driving the slate
Kyler Murray
21 signals18 positive, 3 negative across Bust, Depth Chart, Matchup.
Jared Goff
15 signals10 positive, 5 negative across Matchup, Projection, Role.
Brock Bowers
13 signals13 positive across Breakout, News, Projection.
A.J. Brown
13 signals12 positive, 1 negative across Breakout, Matchup, News.
Malik Willis
10 signals8 positive, 2 negative across Breakout, Projection, Role.
Baker Mayfield
9 signals8 positive, 1 negative across Breakout, Injury, Projection.
Colston Loveland
9 signals8 positive, 1 negative across Breakout, Projection, Role.
De'Von Achane
9 signals5 positive, 4 negative across Bust, Matchup, Projection.
All extracted player insights
People trying to figure out Marvin Harris Jr versus Michael Wilson.
People trying to figure out Marvin Harris Jr versus Michael Wilson.
Been struck by how much sharper the fantasy markets are getting at digesting previous year outlier production. Some examples from this year: 1. Matthew Stafford was fantasy's QB2 last season, and NFL MVP. Market bakes in regression on pass TD rate, going off board as QB14 now. 2. RJ Harvey goes for 12 TDs and 47 receptions as a rookie. Market understands JK Dobbins now ahead in base, Dobbins/Coleman ahead in pass pro. Going off board as RB31. 3. Michael Wilson goes 78-1006-7 last season. Mark...
Been struck by how much sharper the fantasy markets are getting at digesting previous year outlier production. Some examples from this year: 1. Matthew Stafford was fantasy's QB2 last season, and NFL MVP. Market bakes in regression on pass TD rate, going off board as QB14 now. 2. RJ Harvey goes for 12 TDs and 47 receptions as a rookie. Market understands JK Dobbins now ahead in base, Dobbins/Coleman ahead in pass pro. Going off board as RB31. 3. Michael Wilson goes 78-1006-7 last season. Mark...
Been struck by how much sharper the fantasy markets are getting at digesting previous year outlier production. Some examples from this year: 1. Matthew Stafford was fantasy's QB2 last season, and NFL MVP. Market bakes in regression on pass TD rate, going off board as QB14 now. 2. RJ Harvey goes for 12 TDs and 47 receptions as a rookie. Market understands JK Dobbins now ahead in base, Dobbins/Coleman ahead in pass pro. Going off board as RB31. 3. Michael Wilson goes 78-1006-7 last season. Mark...
Been struck by how much sharper the fantasy markets are getting at digesting previous year outlier production. Some examples from this year: 1. Matthew Stafford was fantasy's QB2 last season, and NFL MVP. Market bakes in regression on pass TD rate, going off board as QB14 now. 2. RJ Harvey goes for 12 TDs and 47 receptions as a rookie. Market understands JK Dobbins now ahead in base, Dobbins/Coleman ahead in pass pro. Going off board as RB31. 3. Michael Wilson goes 78-1006-7 last season. Mark...
Colts' Daniel Jones (Achilles), who signed a 2-year, $88M deal this offseason, says he's "cleared to do everything," per @RomeovilleKid "I’m doing everything. Cleared to do everything. I think it’s just about, at this point, sharpening that."
.@BleacherReport names Travis Hunter the Jaguars' most promising building block entering 2026. "He did show big-play potential as a WR, and he was mostly solid as a CB when tested. If he adapts quickly and can stay healthy, Hunter has the potential to be a true superstar."
On the Jaguars (more teams to post): Amazing article by Ted The running game left a to be desired even though Travis Etienne had nice numbers Based on the tape, Bhayshul Tuten displayed better feel for the zone run concepts, so I’m hopeful he will help improve the efficiency [Retweeted](
ICYMI - we were joined by @AndyHermanNFL to discuss the Packers offense this coming season Is this the year Marshawn Lloyd stays healthy? He worked all offseason to put the past behind him. 🌐<https://t.ly/74TTG> 🎥<https://t.ly/7d6RA> 📷<https://t.ly/P69is>
KEEP/TRADE/CUT: Wan’Dale Robinson Josh Downs Michael Wilson
KEEP/TRADE/CUT: Wan’Dale Robinson Josh Downs Michael Wilson
KEEP/TRADE/CUT: Wan’Dale Robinson Josh Downs Michael Wilson
One tidbit that stood out from Ryan's piece here. Jalen Hurts is efficient throwing to the middle of the field... when he does it. But is that because he only throws the "easy button" MOF passes? Ryan doesn't buy that argument. Excited to watch Sean Mannion's offense.
WRs with 600+ yards in their last 7 games: Puka Nacua Amon-Ra St. Brown Chris Olave and Parker Washington
WRs with 600+ yards in their last 7 games: Puka Nacua Amon-Ra St. Brown Chris Olave and Parker Washington
Christian McCaffrey played on 93% of the offense’s snaps that year, drawing 8.9 targets per game. Achane’s career-high snap share is 75%. His career-high in targets per game is 5.3. CMC isn’t a guy you should make comparisons to lightly
Christian McCaffrey played on 93% of the offense’s snaps that year, drawing 8.9 targets per game. Achane’s career-high snap share is 75%. His career-high in targets per game is 5.3. CMC isn’t a guy you should make comparisons to lightly
Chris Rodriguez is solid between the tackles but can’t often create explosives (middling 1.04 explosive rush yards/att, 1 career run of 30+ yards) and is a complete zero in the pass game (6 career receptions), making him extremely limited as a player (explosives are highly valuable) and to an offense (tough to disguise play-calling). Saying he’s objectively better than the clearly more dynamic/better RB prospect in Tuten (who does not have those limitations) feels “objectively” wrong. Especia...
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
I compared @RecepPerception success rates, @FantasyPtsData separation scores, and 2024-25 production data to find: 12 receivers who can win vs. any coverage type Some of the WRs might surprise you! Ja’Marr Chase CeeDee Lamb Jaxon Smith-Njigba Amon-Ra St. Brown Puka Nacua Justin Jefferson Chris Olave Nico Collins Zay Flowers DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle Josh Downs <https://youtu.be/R4XDBxFdNgI?is=frLyHlq6En9JFfT0>
In addition to showing the potential for being an elite blocker, in his last six games, Loveland led all TEs in yard per route run by a wide margin (2.42). [Quoted](
For me, Omarion Hampton just didn’t show enough as a rookie to be going as an early R2 pick. Was mostly inefficient even prior to his injury and the Chargers offense collapsing (outlier game against NYG) albeit on lower volume. Keaton very live to take a lot of the designed touches, screens, outside runs, etc. out of the backfield, and Vidal similarly so for passing downs (preferred in pass pro down stretch of last season). And the expectation of a similar performance of this backfield at lar...
For me, Omarion Hampton just didn’t show enough as a rookie to be going as an early R2 pick. Was mostly inefficient even prior to his injury and the Chargers offense collapsing (outlier game against NYG) albeit on lower volume. Keaton very live to take a lot of the designed touches, screens, outside runs, etc. out of the backfield, and Vidal similarly so for passing downs (preferred in pass pro down stretch of last season). And the expectation of a similar performance of this backfield at lar...
For me, Omarion Hampton just didn’t show enough as a rookie to be going as an early R2 pick. Was mostly inefficient even prior to his injury and the Chargers offense collapsing (outlier game against NYG) albeit on lower volume. Keaton very live to take a lot of the designed touches, screens, outside runs, etc. out of the backfield, and Vidal similarly so for passing downs (preferred in pass pro down stretch of last season). And the expectation of a similar performance of this backfield at lar...
For me, Omarion Hampton just didn’t show enough as a rookie to be going as an early R2 pick. Was mostly inefficient even prior to his injury and the Chargers offense collapsing (outlier game against NYG) albeit on lower volume. Keaton very live to take a lot of the designed touches, screens, outside runs, etc. out of the backfield, and Vidal similarly so for passing downs (preferred in pass pro down stretch of last season). And the expectation of a similar performance of this backfield at lar...
Told my therapist to fuck off: I'm once again drafting MarShawn Lloyd every chance I get
NFL Top 100 Rankings (80-71): 80 - AJ Brown 79 - Travis Kelce 78 - Josh Sweat 77 - Baker Mayfield 76 - Jaycee Horn 75 - Budda Baker 74 - Josh Jacobs 73 - Zach Allen 72 - Jordan Love 71 - Zay Flowers
NFL Top 100 Rankings (80-71): 80 - AJ Brown 79 - Travis Kelce 78 - Josh Sweat 77 - Baker Mayfield 76 - Jaycee Horn 75 - Budda Baker 74 - Josh Jacobs 73 - Zach Allen 72 - Jordan Love 71 - Zay Flowers
NFL Top 100 Rankings (80-71): 80 - AJ Brown 79 - Travis Kelce 78 - Josh Sweat 77 - Baker Mayfield 76 - Jaycee Horn 75 - Budda Baker 74 - Josh Jacobs 73 - Zach Allen 72 - Jordan Love 71 - Zay Flowers
NFL Top 100 Rankings (80-71): 80 - AJ Brown 79 - Travis Kelce 78 - Josh Sweat 77 - Baker Mayfield 76 - Jaycee Horn 75 - Budda Baker 74 - Josh Jacobs 73 - Zach Allen 72 - Jordan Love 71 - Zay Flowers
“…but [Okonkwo] has stood out at times with at least 50 receptions in each of the last three seasons. The hope is that he can get more targets with the Commanders, who will lean more heavily on his ability to work in space and get open downfield.” @ZachSelbyWC
“Such vigor was noticeable during OTAs and mandatory minicamp. On top of that, Bowers will be playing in an improved offensive system, orchestrated by coach Klint Kubiak, who has shown the ability to scheme the ball to his best pass catchers.”
Jordan Love lands at No. 72 on the NFL Top 100 list. Is that too low? 🤔
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
We went player by player at RB and put it to a 3-man vote to come up with consensus re draft Rb Rankings TIER 1 Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson TIER 2 Christian McCaffrey TIER 3 Jonathan Taylor James Cook Saquon Barkley Chase Brown Ashton Jeanty Derrick Henry Kenneth Walker Omarion Hampton De'Von Achane Javonte Williams Breece Hall Jeremiyah Love Kyren Williams Josh Jacobs @allinkid @Ihartitz Full breakdown 👇 [Retweeted](
Jaylen Waddle is this year's 2005 Santana Moss
Don’t let Drake London’s statistical production fool you! [Retweeted](
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 TEs: 1) Brock Bowers 2) Trey McBride 3) George Kittle 4) Sam LaPorta 5) Tyler Warren 6) Tucker Kraft 7) Colston Loveland 8) Kyle Pitts 9) Mark Andrews 10) Travis Kelce (@JFowlerESPN)
Article lists Goedert as league-winner TE; community does not contest. Appears to be consensus late-round TE value.
Article lists Nacua as league-winner WR; community does not contest. Appears to be consensus late-round WR value.
Mentioned in comments as 24-year-old RB with upside. However, PCL injury (no surgery) will result in pitch count similar to 2025 (38% snap share, career-high 63% in rookie year). Per-route/target efficiency is elite, but snap-share ceiling is hard-capped; improved blocking may help, but still not strong. Community view: viable dart throw at age 24, but volume ceiling limits league-winner potential.
Mentioned in comments as late-round RB consideration but community skeptical. White looked cooked in 2025; now in crowded backfield with running QB taking opportunities. stay away; not a viable late-round target despite improved offense narrative.
Not in article but highlighted in comments as overlooked late-round WR grab. Watson and Reed have injury concerns; Kraft coming off season-ending injury (reinjury risk). Golden has first-round draft capital, blazing speed, strong catch rate, and promising efficiency in rookie year (good playoff game vs. CHI). GB consolidated target share with Doubs/Wicks departures. Could be WR1 if Watson/Reed injured; available for free in final rounds. Upside-oriented dart throw.
Article lists Corum as league-winner RB; community rejects claim. Kyren Robinson is the locked-in starter and will not be displaced. Corum will not be a league-winner; Kyren's extension and consistent production make him the clear lead back. Corum hype is overblown; Kyren is the safer pick.
Not in article's top 5 but featured in comments as late-round TE value. When healthy: 1st in yards per reception (14.6 YPR), 3rd in YAC (6.7), 1st in passer rating when targeted, 2nd in average depth of target. Injury concern: same PCL injury as Bowers/London/Pearsall; likely pitch count early season, capped at 63% snap share (rookie high) or 38% (2025). Efficient per-route/target but volume ceiling is hard-capped by snap share. Community bullish on efficiency metrics; cautious on volume.
Article lists Willis as late-round league-winner; minimal community discussion. Appears in punt-QB strategy context (pairing with Kyler). No strong sentiment or evidence provided in comments.
Article lists Kyler as late-round league-winner; community notes high ceiling but volatile floor. Kyler's ceiling is elite but floor is dangerously low (scored <8 points in some weeks). Move to Vikings may improve floor safety vs. Cardinals tenure. Useful as late-round QB punt strategy paired with another QB (Willis), but risky as sole QB due to inconsistency. Some managers lost weeks due to floor volatility.
Article lists Dobbins as league-winner; community acknowledges upside but expresses durability fatigue. When healthy, Dobbins produces consistently and offers solid floor/ceiling. However, injury history is extensive: hamstring tear, LCL tear, ACL tear, Achilles tear, Lisfranc—essentially ran through entire leg-to-feet injury spectrum. RJ Rice is solid backup. Dobbins is 50/50 bet at best; draft late as value, trade around week 10 if healthy, but don't expect full season.
Article lists Pearsall as league-winner; community divided on injury risk vs. value. Pearsall had strong early-season games when healthy (PPR-friendly, good catch rate) but missed 3–8 games due to recurring injuries (three separate occasions in 2025). PCL injury same as Bowers/London/Pearsall's own prior issues. With Kittle, CMC, and Evans ahead in pecking order, ceiling is capped even if healthy. Cost is attractive but injury history and role depth make him risky hold; some managers love the value, others refuse to draft him again.
Article lists Gainwell as league-winner; community skeptical. Gainwell had 3x career-high targets in 2025 under Arthur Smith (Rodgers offense), but comments note he's been a career backup and needs Bucky Leonard injury or significant workload shift to be league-winner; likely 60-40 split favoring Leonard. At current ADP he's viable as cheap WR2 with upside, but not a league-winner without injury to starter. Rodgers' checkdown tendency may not sustain 2025 volume.
Bank on possible injury to Isiah Walker; if Walker goes down, Emmitt Johnson will have massive upside as the Chiefs' primary back.
Rookie at 190th overall with elite receiving skills (46 college receptions), explosive burst, and great vision; stash for massive upside if Isiah Walker gets injured.
Coming off a dislocated ankle (not a torn ACL), which is not serious; expected to be healthy and ready to go.
Top-5 to top-10 potential running back with expectations of 1,000+ rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns.
RB22 at 60 overall (4th-5th round ADP) represents great value for a workhorse back with top-5 to top-10 potential.
Hearing reports of integration but primarily in passing game and special teams, not expected to be a major factor in rushing workload.
Has RB1 top-10 upside despite being drafted as RB3-4; produced fantasy points even with Jameer Gibbs ahead of him in Detroit.
Signing with the Texans as the alpha dog; will be fed heavily as the primary back despite Woody Marks integration.
RB24 at 64 overall (round 3-4 ADP) offers excellent value as a workhorse and goal-line vulture.
11 touchdowns last year with 2 receiving; positioned to get goal-line work in Dallas offense with Pickens and CeeDee Lamb drawing coverage.
Dallas made him the alpha dog and main man; no other backs drafted, and he's the clear workhorse with goal-line work.
RB18 with 252 attempts last year at 48 overall (3rd-4th round ADP) represents great value for a workhorse back.
Should be the primary back with James Conner injury-prone, Algier added for depth, and Trey Benson not expected to be a factor.
Highest paid rookie running back of all time and drafted third overall, signaling strong organizational commitment.
RB12 projection with round 2 ADP (could fall to round 3) represents solid value for a potential explosive workhorse running back.
Still unbelievably athletic and very talented; his prime is going to extend much further than most players' primes.
Could still always run for 15 touchdowns with very reasonable price tag and very high-end upside if the Eagles offense can be league average.
Could literally finish with a top five target share this season with very reasonable price tag and very high-end upside if the Eagles offense can be league average.
A phenomenal pick to make at the one-two turn in drafts, as people who draft him at that spot are probably going to make the playoffs at a pretty high rate.
Very likely to have a high playoff rate over expectation due to the Eagles' easy schedule weeks 1-14, though he'll face tough matchups in the playoffs.
Should have a really nice bounceback season if the Eagles offense gets back on track, as he failed last season because of the offensive environment and not because he's cooked.
With Shawn Manion replacing Kevin Patulo as Eagles offensive coordinator, Dallas Goedert should see improved production as even minimal competence from the new coordinator would be an upgrade.
With Shawn Manion replacing Kevin Patulo as Eagles offensive coordinator, DeVonta Smith should see improved production as even minimal competence from the new coordinator would be an upgrade.
With Shawn Manion replacing Kevin Patulo as Eagles offensive coordinator, AJ Brown should see improved production as even minimal competence from the new coordinator would be an upgrade.
With Shawn Manion replacing Kevin Patulo as Eagles offensive coordinator, Saquon Barkley should see improved production as even minimal competence from the new coordinator would be an upgrade.
DeVonta Smith underperformed last season due to Kevin Patulo's terrible offensive playcalling, despite being a superstar on the Eagles offense.
AJ Brown underperformed last season due to Kevin Patulo's terrible offensive playcalling, despite being a superstar on the Eagles offense.
Saquon Barkley underperformed last season due to Kevin Patulo's terrible offensive playcalling, despite being a superstar on the Eagles offense.
Tony Pollard is getting drafted at a pretty strong discount right now, and with the offense likely to improve and stay on the field more, he had stretches last season where he was really good and is a great pick to make.
In a standard 10-12 team reddraft league, you don't need to draft Cam Ward even as a bench option; monitor him on free agency instead.
Cam Ward was a bottom three quarterback in pretty much every metric last season, but if Brian Dball can make him even bottom 10 (slightly below league average), that will be a very big upgrade for the offense.
Tyjae Spears is a fine later-round pick due to contingent upside from his potential receiving game role in the Titans offense, though he will mix in behind Tony Pollard.
Tony Pollard is the clear-cut best early-down running back on the Titans offense, and Brian Dball's tendency to force-feed his top targets means Pollard has significant upside to shatter his ADP if Cam Ward develops.
Carnell Tate is the clear-cut best wide receiver on the Titans offense, and Brian Dball's willingness to force-feed his top targets means Tate has significant upside to shatter his ADP if Cam Ward develops under Dball's system.
In standard redraft leagues (10-12 teams), Cam Ward should not be drafted as even a bench option due to the availability of locked-in quarterbacks, though he may be worth monitoring on free agency if he breaks out.
Brian Dball's hiring as offensive coordinator is a significant positive signal for Cam Ward's development, as Dball has a proven track record developing young quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jackson Dart who weren't locked-in prospects but succeeded under his system.
Njoku is fine as a tight end option, but the analyst is not in love with him this season as he's not getting any discount and there are other tight ends with higher ceilings or similar floors going around him.
Cooper becomes a great last wide receiver in redraft leagues and has strong value in best ball formats, likely to ramp up and peak later in the season.
Cooper is the Browns' best wide receiver at getting open and could have a breakout season under Todd Monkin's offense, which pushes the ball deep downfield at a higher rate.
Jackson is referenced as a significantly better quarterback than Deshaun Watson or Shadur, highlighting the downgrade the Browns face at the position under Todd Monken.
Watson is likely to start the season for the Browns but is expected to play mediocre, representing a significant downgrade from previous Ravens quarterbacks under Todd Monken.
Harris is recommended as a best ball pick in round 17, though less suitable for classic 15-round redraft leagues, given the Chargers offense's upside potential.
The analyst currently prefers Chase Brown over Marvin Harrison Jr. in the second round, suggesting better value at that ADP.
The analyst prefers Harrison in the mid-second round rather than the early second round where he goes on some platforms, viewing his early-round ADP as slightly premature.
McConkey is an exceptional pick in round four despite the round being stacked with talent, offering great value in the Chargers' high-upside offense.
Mitchell is the analyst's top value pick from the Chargers offense, going in round 13 with strong potential value at that late ADP.
Herbert is an elite quarterback who will benefit from a now-healthy Chargers offensive line and Mike McDaniel's system, which historically produces high yards per attempt. The analyst projects Herbert will likely set a career-high in yards per pass attempt this season.
Herbert is an elite quarterback without concussion concerns like Tua, and with a now-healthy offensive line and plethora of skilled players, he can fully utilize Mike McDaniel's creative offensive scheme.
The Chargers' coaching change to Mike McDaniel and a healthier offensive line represent a huge upgrade from last season, with McDaniel's creative play-calling and motion-heavy schemes making the offense far more explosive and efficient.
McMillan and Naylor are more underdog/best ball picks in heavy sets, but in a traditional 12-team reddraft league with six bench spots, they're not worth drafting as they won't produce enough.
The Seahawks' new coaching staff and heavy offensive sets benefit the running game, and with Bowowers returning healthy, the offense becomes more efficient, which is a positive for Nabers' fantasy outlook.
White benefits from the coaching upgrade with Clint Kubiak, as the heavy two tight end sets will theoretically improve the running game over time, and he's getting Brock Bowers back healthy to reduce defensive focus.
Mayer is one of the best round 18 picks available on Underdog, as he will see significantly more playing time than expected in the Raiders' two tight end sets before the public catches on in August.
Bowers will operate as the Raiders' number one wide receiver in Clint Kubiak's heavy two tight end sets, giving him JSN-level upside at tight end with potential first-round value despite being drafted in the second round.
Jeremy McNichols is expected to be on the field in passing situations like third and 13, ahead of Croskey-Merritt.
Rachaad White is one of the best running backs in the league in the pass game, excelling at both pass protection and pass-catching, and also handles goal-line work well.
The upside case for Croskey-Merritt is that he's really explosive and could add pass-catching capability to be in the mix, similar to early James Cook, with potential breakaway rushing element if he secures the job.
Dan Quinn indicated the running back room is an open competition in training camp, with Ke'Shawn Allen also in the mix, meaning Croskey-Merritt's role is uncertain.
Even if Croskey-Merritt wins the job, he would likely be a two-down lead grinder without pass-catching ability or goal-line work, creating an ugly floor if other backs mix in.
Croskey-Merritt is called "the worst pick on the board right now" due to being a zero in the passing game, lacking a goal-line role, and facing competition from Rachaad White and Ke'Shawn Allen in an open running back competition.
Mark Andrews is ranked as the tight end 19 in the analyst's tier rankings.
With Likely out of the way, Mark Andrews should see more targets at the tight end position overall, and if buying a Lamar Jackson bounceback, Andrews has upside with an eight touchdown ceiling.
Jalen Coker is projected to be the second leading target in the Washington offense on paper, though this could change if Washington adds a second pass catcher like Diggs or Keenan Allen.
If buying a Lamar Jackson bounceback, Andrews has upside with potential for eight touchdowns.
With Isaiah Likely now out of the way, Andrews probably sees more targets at the tight end position overall.
Better player and fantasy player than given credit for; could be in the tier of Jake Ferguson and Brenton Strange, attached to an up-and-coming offense with a third-year QB who favors him in the red zone.
One of the more underrated tight ends in fantasy; last two years have been some of his best with high target counts, receptions, and yardage—two of his three best PPR seasons.
Was quietly awesome in PPR last year, but that was likely due to lack of other weapons; Jordan Tyson will eat significantly into his target share.
When both CD Lamb and George Pickens are healthy together, Ferguson falls off the face of the earth; he only thrived when receivers were injured.
Biggest concern is the crowded receiver room with Parker Washington, Jacobe, and Brian Thomas Jr. running routes over the middle, making him unreliable week-to-week despite high upside.
High floor tight end attached to a high upside offense with Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence; likely to produce 4 for 40 almost every week.
He's in the Mark Andrews mold where he won't be the same explosive player; he'll need to back into a high touchdown rate to be fantasy-relevant.
Torn Achilles at age 32-33 is much scarier than a torn ACL at a younger age; people who watched recovery videos are not overly optimistic about how he looks, which concerns the analyst.
While there's a world where Kittle scores eight touchdowns and looks fine, the analyst doesn't expect the same explosive player as before and thinks he'll need a high touchdown rate to be reliable, similar to Mark Andrews.
People who watched videos of Kittle post-injury are not overly optimistic about how he looks, which concerns the analyst given his age.
Kittle is ranked as tight end 13 with relatively optimistic injury reports, but a torn Achilles at age 32-33 is much scarier than Tucker Craft's ACL at age 25.
There is some risk with Likely since he has never been the guy for a full season or even for more than a few weeks at a time.
With the Giants' receiving group depleted (Malik Nabers injured, Wideout Jalen Hyatt gone), Likely is positioned to see a very high target floor right away.
Likely finally gets out from behind Mark Andrews, follows Harbaugh to New York, and will be used heavily with a contract to match, positioning him for a high target floor.
Kincaid is a great tight end in best-ball formats and the analyst will take shots on him in redraft due to his upside, youth, first-round pedigree, and connection to Josh Allen.
Kincaid was on the verge of a breakout last year and showed some really high ceiling games, but he doesn't run a ton of routes and is still only on the field for about 55-60% of snaps with Dawson Knox there.
At this point in his career, Kelce is probably going to need touchdowns to sustain any fantasy reliability, similar to Mark Andrews' current situation.
Kelce is tied to Mahomes and has the liability/upside to score around eight touchdowns in a season, which will be the difference in his fantasy reliability going forward.
Kelce is ranked as tight end 10 and was quietly really good for fantasy last year despite not scoring many touchdowns, but benefited from injuries to teammates like Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
Despite concerns about Tua's history with tight ends, Pitts will see approximately six targets per game given the Falcons have little else behind Drake London running routes downfield.
Goedert will likely be more volatile on a week-to-week basis with a lower weekly floor compared to other tight ends in his tier.
The Eagles got Goedert very involved in the red zone last year and he benefits from AJ Brown's absence, seeing a huge target share increase.
Goedert scored 11 touchdowns last year but is not a huge touchdown guy overall; his scoring is unlikely to repeat at that level.
Despite being injured, the analyst is 'pretty in on Craft this year' and would be 'ecstatic' to get him as tight end 6-8 in middle-to-later rounds because people are scared of the injury.
Craft is the most reliable piece for Jordan Love and was in full breakout mode before his injury last year, expected to pick up where he left off.
Green Bay's medical staff is notoriously cautious with injuries and won't clear players until 100% confident. If Craft is good to go for the start of the season, that validates his health status.
Tucker Kraft is an exception to the analyst's usual rule of avoiding injured players; he would be ecstatic to have him as a tight end six, seven, or eight in drafts.
Tucker Kraft was in full breakout mode before his injury last year and is the most reliable piece for Jordan Love; the analyst expects him to pick up where he left off.
Tucker Kraft is coming back from a significant ACL tear at age 25, and the data favors young players recovering from such injuries; Green Bay's medical staff is known for taking their time and won't clear him until 100% confident.
Sam Laaporta is a boring veteran who will likely drop to tight end 8-10 in drafts but provides reliable production and can be set-and-forget in lineups.
Sam Laaporta is a reliable tight end who will be the clear number two in the Lions passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown; he should be fully healthy by training camp with no residual effects from his back injury.
While Fannon is an explosive pass-catching tight end ranked as tight end five, the analyst is concerned about attaching to the Cleveland Browns passing game, which may not throw for more than 3,000 yards with multiple new receivers drafted.
Daniel Jones' injury and limited mobility should not significantly impact Tyler Warren, who plays around the line of scrimmage rather than running deep routes like Alec Pierce.
Tyler Warren was phenomenal as a rookie and as good as any rookie tight end in previous years; he needs a spike in touchdowns to reach his ceiling.
With Michael Pitman out of the way and Alec Pierce potentially missing time with an ankle injury, Tyler Warren could command a 25-30% target share in the Colts offense.
Analyst believes Loveland will be the best player in the Bears offense in 2026, with an incredibly high ceiling given Ben Johnson's handpicking him as a top-10 pick and his strong rookie performance with Sam Leaport.
Daniel Jones coming off an injury is a concern that could affect Tyler Warren's upside, though the analyst is uncertain how much it really impacts him.
With Michael Pitman out of the way, Tyler Warren stands to gain significant target share impact, and the removal of Pitman is a major positive for Warren and Josh DS.
Analyst believes Loveland ends up being probably the best player in the Bears offense in 2026, with an incredibly high ceiling given Ben Johnson handpicked him as a top-10 pick and his track record with Sam Leaport.
Main hesitation on Loveland's upside is whether the Chicago Bears passing offense can top 4,000 yards and support multiple weapons eating.
Loveland was dominant in the second half of last year in targets per route run and yards per route run, becoming the centerpiece of the Bears passing offense, with potential for explosive year-two growth.
Questions remain about whether the Cardinals will pass the ball as much as they did last year, with Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison, and QB uncertainty (Jacobe Brassette vs. Carson Beck) creating potential regression risk.
McBride is ranked as tight end two by both the analyst and ADP, coming off one of the best fantasy seasons of all time.
With Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza at QB, an improved offensive line with Colton Miller returning and Tyler Linderbound signed, plus Clint Kubak's scheme, Bowers has no target competition and could see 8-10-12 targets per game.
Even in his first year without Ben Johnson, Goff threw for 4,500 yards and 30+ touchdowns, suggesting he's probably a bit underrated despite being boring.
Drew Psoning, the former Arizona offensive coordinator, is coming in and was a mess in terms of the passing game there, presenting a downside risk.
Offensive line has lost three of five starting linemen over the last two offseasons, including Taylor Decker and Graham Glasgow, which is a downside concern.
Vegas projects Jared Goff for 4,000 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns, comparable to Dak Prescott's range.
Drew Psoning, the former Arizona offensive coordinator, is coming in as the new coordinator, and the analyst has concerns about his passing game scheme based on his Arizona tenure.
Goff's offensive line has lost significant pieces over the last two offseasons, including Taylor Decker and Graham Glasgow, with three of five starting linemen from the past decade no longer there.
Jared Goff is at quarterback 19 with Vegas projections of 4,000 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns, comparable to Dak Prescott's numbers.
JJ McCarthy could potentially get starting opportunities if Kyler Murray struggles and McCarthy shows improvement in practice, though this is not the most likely outcome.
There is a risk that Kyler Murray could get benched for JJ McCarthy at some point during the season if the team struggles and McCarthy shows improvement in practice.
Murray has a great playoff schedule featuring Detroit, Washington, and the New York Jets.
At quarterback 17 ADP, Murray is now at a perfect price after being overvalued at QB 10-11 last year; the analyst would be happy to grab him at this price.
Murray has a phenomenal weapons group, phenomenal offensive scheme with KC, and a really good offensive line, making him a no-brainer in Superflex.
Murray almost definitely wins the starting job over JJ McCarthy in Minnesota, giving him the primary QB role.
Kyler Murray was a full fade for the analyst last year, indicating poor performance or unfavorable circumstances.
The analyst likes Love as a player and the overall situation in Green Bay, though notes the team needs to increase pass attempts.
Love is available at quarterback 20 ADP, which the analyst would be happy to acquire in Superflex leagues, indicating good value at that price point.
Despite not being a great NFL quarterback, Kyler Murray's rushing ability and great scheme make him valuable in fantasy, especially if the opportunity to grab him at a discount presents itself.
Moved to Minnesota and is almost definitely winning the starting job over JJ McCarthy with a phenomenal weapons group and offensive scheme, making him a no-brainer quarterback two in Superflex leagues.
Josh Jacobs' arrival has limited Love's passing volume, though there's potential for increased pass attempts if Jacobs faces suspension.
Ranked at quarterback 16, four spots above ADP at quarterback 20, with potential to return to top-eight fantasy quarterback status if the Packers lean more into the passing game.
The weapons group is less dominant than in the past, with Kenneth Walker taking more ground game touches, and the secondary receivers lack the separation ability of previous years.
Ranked at quarterback 14, Mahomes has been subpar for fantasy over the last three to four years despite last year's uptick, and is coming off a torn ACL with a less dominant weapons group than in previous years.
McCaffrey remains a key part of the 49ers' offense, with hopes for a full 17-game season.
Kirk was brought in as a receiver for the 49ers alongside Mike Evans to supplement the weapons group despite high turnover in the receiving corps.
Evans was brought in as a receiver for the 49ers alongside Christian Kirk to supplement the weapons group despite high turnover in the receiving corps.
Nabers' injury news has been concerning and he may start the year on the PUP list, creating uncertainty for the Jets' receiving corps.
Odunze is entering his prime as part of the Bears' weapons group in Ben Johnson's second year as offensive coordinator.
Burden is entering his prime as part of the Bears' weapons group in Ben Johnson's second year as offensive coordinator.
Loveland is part of the Bears' entering-prime weapons group alongside Luther Burden and Roma Dunay in Ben Johnson's second year as offensive coordinator.
Williams is ranked QB12 by the analyst, significantly lower than his ADP of QB7, and is overvalued in super flex leagues where he's going around the 1-2 turn; concerns include inconsistent completion rate and decision-making accuracy.
Purdy is underrated in fantasy and was the third or fourth QB in overall points per game last year when healthy; he has a high touchdown rate under Kyle Shanahan and adds rushing upside with potential for 4-6 rushing TDs annually.
Prescott is positioned as QB1 with strong offensive weapons (George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson) and a favorable scheme from Shotti, though he no longer has the rushing upside he had early in his career.
Stafford was extremely efficient in the red zone and inside the 10-yard line last year, but volume could take a step back given the Rams' strong defense reducing the need for high-volume passing games.
Prescott is positioned favorably with a scheme that will feature heavy passing volume, elite weapons (George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson), and a good offensive line, though he lacks the rushing upside of other top QBs.
Stafford is QB9 coming off an MVP season with elite weapons (Puka Nacua, Devonte Adams) and McVay's scheme, but touchdown rate should regress naturally and volume may decline due to the strong defense limiting game scripts requiring heavy passing.
Hurts is positioned for a strong mid-QB1 bounce-back with a new offensive scheme replacing Kevin Patulo's poor play-calling; the focus shifts from passing volume to rushing TDs (8-12 target), where he can average 20+ PPG annually.
Lawrence is QB7 with elite receiver weapons (Parker Washington, Jacobe Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., Brentton Strange) and an excellent offensive scheme; his rushing ability is sticky and should produce 4-6 rushing TDs annually, potentially finishing as a top-5 fantasy QB.
Despite rushing upside, May is ranked QB6 (not the popular QB3-5) due to concerns about a tougher schedule this year and struggles against elite defenses in the playoffs last year, with risk of finishing QB8-10.
Herbert is positioned for a breakout year with Mike McDaniel's creative offense and his demonstrated rushing ability (second in NFL in rushing yards among QBs last year), making him a complete fantasy package that the market is undervaluing.
Drake May is mentioned as having rushing upside in the Strong QB1 tier, though the analyst expresses some wariness about his profile.
Justin Herbert showed strong rushing ability last year, finishing second in the NFL in rushing yards among quarterbacks, which adds to his fantasy value alongside his passing prowess.
Justin Herbert is ranked much higher than consensus; the analyst cites improved offensive line health with Slater and Altback returning, interior additions, and Mike McDaniel's creative system as catalysts for a strong 2026.
Getting rid of Cliff Kingsbury and implementing a more progressive offensive system is expected to be huge for Jaden Daniels, allowing him to do what he does best.
Jaden Daniels is in the Strong QB1 tier with a bounceback projection after his explosive rookie season; the analyst emphasizes his rushing floor as a key asset that allows for high ceiling weeks.
Joe Burrow is placed in the Strong QB1 tier as a top pocket passer with one of the most live arms in the NFL, projected to throw 600+ times and put up 4,800 yards with elite receiving weapons.
Lamar Jackson faces a slight downside risk with a new offensive coordinator, Tom Monken, now in Cleveland, though the analyst downplays this concern.
Lamar Jackson's rush attempt numbers remain consistently high year-to-year, with last year being an outlier at 67 attempts due to games missed, suggesting his rushing floor remains intact.
Lamar Jackson is in the Elite QB1 tier with a strong bounceback projection; the analyst attributes his down 2025 season primarily to a hamstring injury and expects him to return to 2022-24 form.
Cowboys coaching staff has been consistently praising his development all offseason, highlighting his progress as a route runner and his increased reps with Dak Prescott.
Has significant contingent upside as a weekly starter if either Lamb or Gallup suffers an injury, making him a valuable handcuff in deeper leagues.
Was highly productive when given opportunity last season, posting at least 68 receiving yards in all three games with 7+ targets and at least 114 yards in both games with 9+ targets.
Will run a ton of routes this season as Dallas commits to 11 personnel with three wide receivers on the field, bucking the league-wide shift toward heavy tight end usage.
Late 17th round pick with strong upside; analyst believes the role will be there and recommends drafting him as a late-round flyer with minimal downside risk.
In an offense not expected to have many passing touchdowns, Gunnar Helm is not somebody to feel super good about given the lack of touchdown upside.
Gunnar Helm is projected for 60 targets, 48 catches, 394 yards, and 3 touchdowns, which puts him at approximately 6 points per game—not consistent enough for tight end consideration.
As the third option on a bad offense, Gunnar Helm does not sound that great for managed leagues, where there's almost no reason to draft him.
Gunnar Helm will be the Titans' starting tight end and main pass catching tight end in the offense.
Gunnar Helm has a really cheap price and fills a nice role in best ball three tight end builds where you're trying to build in potential and floor as the Titans' starting receiving tight end.
Brissett is expected to be the Cardinals' starter, though there is still some uncertainty around his status due to an ongoing dispute, with recent photos showing him training with the team.
Wilson has shown he is a good wide receiver in the NFL after demonstrating his abilities last season, representing a solid weapon in the Cardinals' offense.
Harrison Jr. has disappointed compared to expectations despite being a good wide receiver, and his production is at risk due to potential quarterback changes and the Cardinals' poor offensive outlook.
McBride is described as one of if not the best tight end in football, representing one of the Cardinals' most talented weapons despite the offense's overall struggles.
Love is likely to see a backfield split with James Conner and will be vultured in the red zone, limiting his ceiling despite solid talent and potential garbage-time receiving volume.
Love is going at 25.8 ADP on the 2-3 turn and likely to rise into the late second round as hype builds, but his price is too high given concerns about a potential backfield split with James Conner and the Cardinals' poor offensive outlook.
Bell is projected at 7 fantasy points per game, reflecting the split nature of the Dolphins' passing game across multiple receivers.
Bell has a 17% red zone target share and is expected to be used in the red zone if healthy, giving him theoretical ceiling upside in managed leagues with IR spots.
Dulcich is projected at 80 targets and 3 touchdowns with a 20% red zone target share, though injury concerns from his Denver days remain a risk factor.
Dulcich is extremely cheap late in drafts and could be valuable if he becomes one of the leading pass catchers with even a 15% target share, given the scarcity of other pass-catching options.
In best ball formats without waiver wire access, Washington is more interesting because he's expected to have a consistent role in the game plan throughout the season.
Washington is extremely cheap, going around pick 183 on Underdog, making him a last-pick redraft type player with potential upside if he secures a role in the offense.
Willis's ceiling is limited to top-12 at best, not top-5, because rushing alone is a floor for QBs, not a ceiling—he would need either a historic rushing season or developed passing game to reach elite fantasy status.
Willis is projected at 16.3 fantasy points per game in four-point passing touchdown leagues, accounting for spike weeks in the low 20s from rushing upside but also stinker games where the offense struggles.
Achane is projected at 86.2 targets for the season, reflecting expectations that he will be the primary receiving option despite the Dolphins' poor passing game.
Achane is likely to lead the Dolphins in targets due to the team's lack of other passing-catching talent, which could be his primary path to production despite the poor offense.
Achane is cheaper than in past years, sitting in the second round of drafts and sometimes falling deep into the second round, making him an attractive value bet on his elite talent despite the Dolphins' offensive struggles.
Christian Kirk was very dusty last year but continued to receive significant playing time under offensive coordinator Nick Caserio, raising concerns about the Texans' personnel decisions.
Xavier Hutchinson played a lot in Jayden Higgins' rookie season, but should be clearly behind Higgins in year two as Higgins learns to play more consistently.
Nico Collins is expected to be one of the two primary receivers on the field in Texans heavy personnel sets alongside Jayden Higgins.
In year two, Jayden Higgins should be clearly ahead of Xavier Hutchinson on the depth chart, with the expectation that in 12-personnel sets, Collins and Higgins will be the outside receivers unless Higgins is a bust.
Texans deploying more heavy personnel sets with improved tight end depth, which should benefit Jayden Higgins as one of the two primary receivers on the field alongside Nico Collins.
Bryce Young is averaging only 180 yards per game passing in his entire career, and the analyst notes this is the one big thing that could hold Chuba Hubbard back, as Young needs to take a big step forward.
Hubbard will be the pass-pro option early in the season over Jonathan Brooks, who is coming off two ACLs, and the analyst doesn't expect Brooks to get 200+ carries early despite the Panthers' running backs combining for 400+ carries and 90+ targets last year.
Hubbard is just one season removed from an RB15 finish with 293 touches and 11 touchdowns, and was top 10 in EPA per attempt and RB7 in yards after contact per carry in 2024.
Chuba Hubbard is a bold pick to finish as an RB2 in round seven; his past breakout seasons have been derailed by injuries (calf strain, admitted coming back too quick), but a clean bill of health should unlock his potential with 225+ touches expected.
Brock Purdy finished top five in fantasy points per game and is going about a round or two behind Dak Prescott in ADP, which the analyst believes is a mistake.
Christian Kirk will likely see reduced snap share (40-50%) compared to previous years and serve as a chain mover, but may need to play more early in the season with KD out, and the analyst likes having him in the offense because he makes plays.
Ricky Pearsall has a chance to really break out in year three of his career with the 49ers.
Mike Evans is described as a touchdown machine in the context of Brock Purdy's 49ers offense.
George Kittle is ahead of schedule in his Achilles recovery thanks to cutting-edge surgery, with the same doctor who treated Jason Tatum, and is expected to be fully healthy by November-December when fantasy football money is made.
Brock Purdy has a career 6% touchdown rate and nearly nine yards per pass attempt, with a 7% touchdown rate in three out of four seasons, demonstrating elite efficiency under Kyle Shanahan.
Brock Purdy's upside projection is 43 total touchdowns (37.5 passing, 5.5 rushing) if the 49ers have an ideal season, based on his 17-game pace from nine games played last year.
Brock Purdy is QB5 in fantasy points per game over the last three years, outscoring Joe Burrow by one-tenth of a point, yet is being drafted at QB12-QB13 ADP despite consistently finishing in the top eight.
Analyst projects Brock Purdy to finish as a top five quarterback in fantasy and throw a career-high in touchdowns, pushing into the high 30s compared to his previous career-high of 31.
John Hansen projects Kyler Murray to finish as a top 12 quarterback in fantasy, assuming he stays healthy and doesn't play significantly worse than last year.
J.J. McCarthy was third from last in catchable throw rate at 69% last year, with only Michael Pennix and Shadur Sanders posting lower rates, indicating significant accuracy and decision-making issues.
The Vikings offense put a lot of pressure on J.J. McCarthy, and the team desperately needed a better run game to help even out the offense and take some pressure off the quarterback.
J.J. McCarthy suffered an injury and has not played since, with Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell appearing to distance himself from McCarthy by 2026 despite being evasive in his praise during training camp and preseason in 2024.
Kyler Murray is amazing at extending plays and scramble drills, with all of his rate stats being better than his overall performance suggests.
Kyler Murray has finished as a top 12 quarterback in four straight seasons prior to last year, consistently finishing around QB8 every single year with reliable fantasy production.
Kyler Murray is projected as QB17-QB18 for the upcoming season, with the analyst expressing confidence that he will hold this job all year unless he gets injured or is legitimately terrible.
Sam Darnold's career 3.5% passing touchdown rate and 6.5 YPA are inferior to Kyler Murray's rate stats, which have been better throughout his entire career.
Jordan Mason is expected to be a bigger factor in the Vikings' running back room than people think.
T.J. Hockenson has been a buzzkill but is still capable at the very least for the Vikings.
Justin Jefferson is part of one of the top three receiving trios in the league alongside Addison and Nailor.
Jalen Nailor is described as a tremendous third receiver in the Vikings' top-tier receiving trio.
Donovan Jackson is viewed as very good as part of the Vikings' offensive line.
Brian O'Neill at right tackle is viewed favorably despite being in a contract impact situation.
Christian Darrisaw is the best left tackle the Vikings have had in decades and could be a top-three left tackle if healthy.
Kyler Murray will be a QB1 in 2026 due to a change of scenery with the Vikings, improved salary cap situation, and his historical consistency as a top-12 quarterback in four straight seasons prior to last year.
The analyst is all in on Terry McLaurin for 2026, expressing strong confidence in his outlook.
Jaylen Daniels was sixth in catchable throw rate in his rookie season and bottom five in turnover worthy throw rate, making good decisions and throwing catchable passes despite last year's injury struggles.
Marcus Mariota is not anything special, though he provides a floor for the Browns compared to teams without backup quarterback depth.
CJ Stroud is expected to struggle in 2026 as Arizona is in a rough spot.
Marcus Mariota played well last year as a backup and deserves consideration for another chance as a starter, providing a strong floor for Washington's offense if Jaden Daniels goes down.
Antonio Williams is viewed as a minor option later in drafts but is not expected to significantly challenge McLaurin for targets on Washington.
Jaden Daniels' injury concerns are legitimate; he missed twice as many games last year as in his previous six seasons combined, making him a risky investment despite his talent.
Jaden Daniels was sixth in catchable throw rate in his rookie season (two years ago), behind only Joe Burrow, Tua, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff, and was bottom five in turnover-worthy throw rate, indicating strong decision-making.
Malik Washington has failed to step up as a replacement target after the Tyreek Hill trade, with the team trying unsuccessfully to develop him for two years.
McLaurin benefits from one of the best backup quarterback situations in the league with Marcus Mariota, who played well last year and clicked with McLaurin when Jaden Daniels was injured.
Author's only concern with McLaurin is his age—he'll be 31 this season—which could impact his ability to capitalize on the improved situation.
McLaurin is undervalued at his current ADP in the end of 4th/early 5th round and represents strong value given his historical production (five straight years of 1,000+ yards and 77+ receptions) and improved situation.
McLaurin will be the clear lead target on Washington with minimal competition from Trayon Burks, Antonio Williams, or Chico Conquo, and will move around the formation more under new offensive coordinator David Blau rather than being static at the X position.
Author projects Terry McLaurin to beat his ADP (end of 4th/early 5th round), have a career year, and finish as a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy points per game, with potential to reach 120-140 targets given the lack of target competition on Washington.
Chris Bell is liked as a last-round best ball pick with potential upside as a stacking partner for Malik Willis.
Caleb Douglas is liked as a deep sleeper option in Miami's receiving corps.
Jaylen Tolbert is fine as a flanker in Miami's receiving corps but is not a primary target option.
Malik Washington is described as stinking and is not a viable fantasy option; the Miami receiving core is essentially a field stretcher with Atwell.
When Darren Waller went down last year, Malik Willis threw it to Gregory Dosich, demonstrating Dosich's role as a big-bodied receiver in the middle of the field.
Baker Mayfield is among 22 quarterbacks with low-end QB1 upside this year, representing exceptional depth at the position.
Malik Willis is among 22 quarterbacks with low-end QB1 upside this year and has made clear progress as a passer with a 94.3% catchable throw rate last year.
Josh Allen was the only quarterback who lived up to expectations last year; if you didn't draft him early, everybody else either got hurt or didn't live up to their ADP.
Baker Mayfield is mentioned as having low-end quarterback one upside and can be considered as a late-round quarterback option with potential.
Malik Willis is mentioned as having low-end quarterback one upside and can be considered as a late-round quarterback option with potential.
Josh Allen was essentially the only quarterback worth drafting early last year, as other early-drafted quarterbacks either got injured or underperformed their ADP.
Loveland has more target competition than Warren, which is cited as a reason why Warren could be ranked above him despite Loveland being a solid option.
McBride is getting cheaper and is a pretty decent pick in the middle of the third round where he's trending down, though he's a significant tier below Bowers in projection.
Bowers is expected to see 5-7 catches every single week this season, indicating consistent high-volume usage.
Bowers is a steal in round three and even at the end of the second round, representing strong value for a tight end drafted that early.
Bowers has transcendent upside this season and the analyst is absolutely drafting him as much as possible in the second round.
Only Rob Gronkowski has scored more fantasy points per game in his first two seasons than Bowers, making him historically elite among tight ends in their first two years.
Bowers is not a traditional tight end but rather a wide receiver that can be played at the tight end position, giving him unique positional flexibility.
Bowers is projected to outscore the tight end position by 3-5 points per game this season due to improved quarterback play and better play-calling from Clint Kubiak.
Bowers' fantasy point ceiling is historically high, with only Rob Gronkowski having scored more fantasy points at the tight end position.
Bowers is not a traditional tight end but a wide receiver playing at the tight end position, with elite receiving ability and versatility.
Bowers is projected to finish as TE1 and outscore the TE2 by 3-5 points per game, with a 2022 Kelce or 2025 McBride-like dominant season.
Metcalf has never paid off his ADP in any year and is a boom-bust player better suited for best ball than season leagues, with inconsistent weekly production.
Metcalf's 1.46 yards per route run ranked only 43rd out of 76 WRs with 50+ targets in 2025, and he's projected to struggle with Aaron Rodgers' limited deep-throw ability (59th in ADoT, 46th in deep throw percentage).
Pitman is projected to earn more targets than Amika Abuka, George Pickens, Roma Donavy, and T. Higgins this season, continuing his history as a consistent target earner.
With 40% of targets gone from the Colts, Pitman—who saw about 90% of his targets in the short to intermediate area—is expected to be their true volume receiver.
Pitman is projected to outscore DK Metcalf by a few points per game and fits the current Colts offense and Rodgers' playing style better than Metcalf.
Pitman is significantly undervalued at WR44-45 ADP and should be going very close to or ahead of DK Metcalf based on target share projections and fit with Aaron Rodgers' aging arm.
DK Metcalf had poor efficiency in 2025 with 1.46 yards per route run (43rd out of 76 WRs with 50+ targets), though he was 16th best against zone coverage at 2.40 yards per route run.
Justin Herbert is part of the improving quarterback landscape and is expected to take another step this season.
Trevor Lawrence has taken time to develop but is expected to take another step this season as part of the improving quarterback landscape.
Kyler Murray is expected to bounce back this season.
Brock Purdy is cited as part of a strong quarterback position landscape heading into the season.
Caleb Williams is in a really good environment and is part of the strong quarterback landscape this season.
Jordan Love missed time last year, cited as context for potential improvement in passing attacks this season.
Baker Mayfield was playing hurt last year, which is being cited as context for why passing attacks may improve this season.
Love missed time last year but is expected to be available heading into 2026, positioning him to contribute to the expected increase in passing yards league-wide.
Mayfield played hurt last year, suggesting he could see improved performance in 2026 if fully healthy, contributing to expected passing yard increases.
Mahomes is coming back fully healthy and should be ready for week one, removing injury concerns heading into the 2026 season.
Williams is positioned for improvement in year two with Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, part of a broader trend of QB play caller upgrades.
Lawrence is in an interesting spot in year two with Liam Cohen as offensive coordinator, expected to benefit from continuity and scheme familiarity.
Herbert is expected to see a massive play caller boost with Mike McDaniel, positioning him for improved performance in 2026.
Jared Goff has an unfavorable Week 17 championship weekend matchup in Chicago, where you would not want to play him outdoors.
Jared Goff is the author's favorite late-round fantasy football quarterback for 2026, available at a very cheap price that will help you make it to the championship.
The insertion of Jared Goff as offensive coordinator is a potential red flag, though ESPN's Field Yates and Yahoo's Nate Tice are encouraging and optimistic about the pairing, as is Vegas with the Lions ranked as the number one offense.
Jared Goff has cleared 4,500 yards in three straight seasons, while the rest of the NFL combined for just six such seasons during that same span.
Jared Goff has eight separate top-five weekly fantasy finishes over the past two seasons, more than any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, or Jalen Hurts.
Jared Goff is available at a five-and-a-half-round discount compared to pocket passers like Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford, despite being outside the top 120 overall picks on Sleeper and top 150 on ESPN.
Baker Mayfield is part of the 'Boomer Sooner method' late-round quarterback strategy, pairing him with Kyler Murray in the final rounds of fantasy drafts.
There is a potential short-leash factor with J.J. McCarthy that could limit Kyler Murray's playing time.
With KOC as offensive coordinator, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and a much improved offensive environment, there is reason to be optimistic about Kyler Murray's fantasy upside in 2026.
Kyler Murray is available at a very affordable late-round cost despite having the same number of top-five weekly fantasy finishes as Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert over the past two seasons, thanks to his rushing upside.
Simply hasn't been a bad fantasy quarterback for the majority of his career, and even with a five-game limited 2025 season, has the same number of top-five weekly fantasy finishes as Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert.
New Vikings probable QB1, still technically in competition with J.J. McCarthy, but should be Kyler Murray's job to lose at the NFL level.
Could do his best 2022 Justin Fields impression as a late-round option, virtually free at the end of drafts.
Over the past decade, 28 quarterbacks with at least 100 rush attempts in a season had a 93% hit rate posting top 12 numbers on a per game basis, suggesting Willis could perform well if he gets rushing volume.
The real reason for interest is his rushing upside, fully expecting him to clear triple digit rushing yards with sub 4.4 speed, top four quarterback in yards per scramble over past two years, and QB1 in yards per rush on read option.
Over the past two years in Green Bay, worked as the most efficient passing quarterback in the league with better EPA per dropback and CPOE than anyone.
Vegas is reasonably excited about the Buccaneers group with the Buccaneers projecting to be the 15th best scoring offense, and Baker comes at a very affordable QB2 price tag in fantasy.
In 2024, averaged north of 21 fantasy points per game, good for QB4 status on the season, providing a strong baseline for 2026 expectations.
Suffered one injury after another down the stretch of last season, affecting his 2025 performance.
Led the NFL in passing touchdowns during 2023 and 2024 seasons and was getting unironic MVP consideration at home.
Author likes Tyler Shough but doesn't quite love him as this year's late round quarterback option.
Advanced numbers are below average to average in EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected, with Vegas early preseason implied scoring ranks having the Saints at just 23rd.
Big, strong-armed talent capable of putting touch on the football and can run pretty well, with the longest rushing touchdown by an NFC South quarterback since Cam Newton last year.
Upon taking over for Spencer Rattler in week nine, posted QB12 numbers on a per game basis the rest of the way, demonstrating strong performance in 2025.
Josh Allen is a tough click in drafts because he's expensive relative to other quality QB options available at cheaper ADP.
Drake May is available in the middle of the sixth round alongside other quality QB options, offering value compared to premium QB picks.
Joe Burrow is available at a similar value tier as Jayden Daniels in the middle of the sixth round, offering quality QB production at a discount.
Jayden Daniels can be acquired in the middle of the sixth round, making him a value pick compared to other elite rushing QBs.
The Eagles added Lem, Stowers, and Wicks as receiving options, and going to Shawn Mannion as offensive coordinator could be huge for Jalen Hurts' passing game.
Jalen Hurts has fallen in ADP partly because of the AJ Brown trade, though the analyst questions whether this concern is warranted since Brown was not going to play for the Eagles anyway.
Lamar Jackson is not considered a total jam despite rushing concerns with elite Konami code quarterbacks, partly because other quality QB options are available at cheaper ADP.
Puka Nacua was a late-round rookie draft pick who delivered significant value, similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown's rookie season success.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was identified as exceptional rookie value when available as a 13th rounder/day three pick, delivering league-winning value down the stretch his rookie year.
Antonio Williams is a rookie with a great landing spot in Washington who has reasonable price in redraft and could play himself into a big role behind McLaren during training camp.
Parker Washington is being overdrafted this year despite having chemistry with Lawrence; he lacks the explosiveness and gamebreaker ability of Brian Thomas.
Brian Thomas is an explosive wide receiver with gamebreaker potential that the Jaguars offense needs, and he's being drafted much later than last year (50s-60s range) making him a bounce-back candidate from his rookie season.
Sousa notes that during the Josh Jacobs year with the Raiders, Zamir White was heavily favored by the fantasy community as the preferred back, but Jacobs ultimately proved to be the better fantasy option.
Sousa references Josh Jacobs' 2023 season with the Raiders as inspiration for the hero RB strategy, noting that Jacobs was heavily soured on by the fantasy community and went for free in drafts despite later producing strong results.
Miles Sanders is characterized as 'just a jag' who was eventually displaced by Jonathan Brooks's superior talent in Carolina's backfield.
Javante Williams is cited as a comparable example to Jonathan Brooks—both talented players who suffered ACL injuries and subsequent injuries before eventually finding success in new situations.
Despite a strong 2024 fantasy season with high win rates, Chuba Hubbard lacks the pass-catching ability and explosiveness of Jonathan Brooks, ranking 46th among running backs in explosive plays (10+ yard rushes and 20+ yard catches combined).
Dave Canales is a running back whisperer who has consistently gotten strong production from his RB1, and Brooks is expected to be that guy in Carolina's offense.
Jonathan Brooks was the first running back selected in the 2024 draft class and offers unbelievable value on platforms like Underdog, Sleeper, and ESPN, though the discount is already gone on NFC and FFPC where he's going 20+ picks ahead of Chuba Hubbard.
Nelson Sousa identifies Jonathan Brooks as one of his must-draft targets, expecting his talent to rise to the top in Carolina's offense despite potential early committee work, similar to how Javante Williams eventually took over in Dallas.
Brooks has elite draft profile and talent, with immaculate vibes in Carolina from coaches, beat reporters, and former player Jonathan Stewart (who endorsed buying his jersey), signaling a potential return to form after two years of injuries.
Chris Godwin is fine as a fallback option if you get stuck at wide receiver, but his best ball is behind him with Eggbuka positioned as the primary target in Tampa Bay.
You can start your draft with a running back and get AJ Brown in round two in most formats, potentially pairing a top-five RB scorer with a top-three WR scorer.
With Mike Evans gone and injuries to Coker and Baker Mayfield resolved, Coker should see increased opportunity in the Buccaneers offense this season.
Coker started last year as WR4-5 in fantasy, averaging 20 PPG through the first five weeks before injuries derailed his season, showing elite early-season production potential.
Nelson Sousa ranks Jalen Coker as a middle-of-the-second-round guy and compares him to last year's JSN, expecting him to be this year's breakout second-year receiver.
George Pickens outscored Lamb last year, and while Lamb will likely lead Dallas in points per game at WR, his ceiling is limited compared to AJ Brown.
Nelson Sousa is willing to take AJ Brown sixth or seventh overall, right after Amanra, over CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson due to better offensive situation and quarterback play.
Josh McDaniels compared Brown to Rob Gronkowski, signaling his importance in the offense. McDaniels has a history of elevating star receivers—Randy Moss led the NFL in TDs (20+) and DeVante Adams led in TDs (14) under his schemes.
New England led the NFL in plays per game that went for 20+ yards, providing explosive play opportunities for Brown in the red zone.
Brown could average five to six more points per game than Stefan Diggs did last year (12.5 PPG), with potential to reach the 160 target range in the Patriots offense.
Historical precedent suggests AJ Brown could lead the league in touchdowns, as Josh McDaniels' offenses have produced WR touchdown leaders: Randy Moss with 20+ TDs and DeVante Adams with 14 TDs.
Josh McDaniels compared AJ Brown to Rob Gronkowski, signaling his importance in the red zone and overall offensive scheme.
The Patriots scheme is perfect for AJ Brown, as New England led the NFL in plays per game that went for 20+ yards, providing explosive play opportunities.
Drake May had a solid first year in the McDaniels offense and is expected to have better chemistry with AJ Brown this season, though he lacks buzz and enthusiasm in draft discussions.
AJ Brown is projected to receive around 150-160 targets in the Patriots offense, positioning him in the conversation with top receivers like Chase and Puka.
AJ Brown fills a critical need in the Patriots offense as an alpha go-to receiver, a role that was missing last year with Stefon Diggs and other receivers not being true alpha options.
AJ Brown is highly ranked and positioned for a breakout season with the Patriots, with potential for 12,300+ yards and double-digit touchdowns, potentially finishing as a top-3 or even WR1 if chemistry with Drake May develops.
Mahomes is coming off an ACL injury and expected to run less, which may lead to more man coverage from opposing defenses and a shift toward more running plays and fewer passing plays for the Chiefs.
Kenneth Walker is expected to be the focal point of the Chiefs offense in a bellcow running back role, with the team investing significant money to shift the offense and protect Mahomes.
Off-field issues with Rice are a negative factor, including rehab complications during a jail stint in the summer.
The Chiefs offense will shift to a Kenneth Walker-centric approach rather than repeating last year's Rashee Rice PPR-heavy usage, as the team paid Walker to be a bellcow back and protect Mahomes.
Rice is a fade due to high ADP (end of second round) and a changing Chiefs offense that will be more Kenneth Walker-centric with less passing volume, especially with Mahomes coming off ACL injury and expected to run less.
With Patrick Mahomes coming off an ACL injury and running less, the Chiefs may run the ball more and throw less, which could impact passing game volume.
Rashee Rice's ADP is pretty high (end of second round) but Nelson thinks there are other wide receivers in better spots; he's also coming off injury.
Nelson is fading Rashee Rice because he has spurts of success but hasn't been consistently great; he struggles against man coverage while defenses may play more man coverage against the Chiefs with Mahomes coming off an ACL injury and running less.
Justin Herbert is available late in reddraft leagues (round 10-11) and is QB5 overall in NFC formats, representing good value.
Jared Goff gets no love but is solid every year; Nelson likes him in the mid-round quarterback range.
Brock Purdy is part of a group of quarterbacks Nelson really loves in the mid-round range.
Dak Prescott is part of a group of quarterbacks Nelson really loves in the mid-round range.
Jaden Daniels is part of a group of quarterbacks Nelson really loves in the mid-round range.
Caleb Williams is part of a group of quarterbacks Nelson really loves in the mid-round range.
Trevor Lawrence is part of a group of quarterbacks Nelson really loves in the mid-round range, available in round 11 in some reddraft leagues.
Nelson is really high on Drake May this year and is expecting big things out of that offense, planning to target him more than other quarterbacks.
If Lamar Jackson's rushing production falls from 915 yards in 2024 to the 500-600 range, it's a really tough outlook; his 41 touchdown pass season doesn't feel like a good bet to repeat.
Zay Flowers should benefit from increased pass volume under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, though there are some concerns about the overall offense transitioning from Todd Monken's system.
If Lamar Jackson's rushing production falls from his recent 915 yards (2024) to the 500-600 range, it would significantly diminish his fantasy value, making him a poor bet despite his outlier 41 touchdown pass season.
Nelson Sousa is fading Lamar Jackson due to concerns about reduced rushing volume under new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. He believes Lamar's fantasy value comes from his legs (800+ rushing yards), and if he runs less and becomes primarily a pocket passer, he won't be worth his current ADP despite being QB2-QB4 depending on league scoring.
Zack Stacy was a waiverwire pickup who won leagues for people in his breakout year, but Nelson learned to avoid similar players the following year when they become expensive in drafts.
Miami is projected to win only 4.5 games (lowest in the NFL), creating an unfavorable offensive environment for Achane despite the potential for playing from behind.
Achane's value is heavily dependent on checkdown volume from his QB, and Malik Willis has a concerning tendency to tuck and run rather than check down to running backs when plays break down.
McCaffrey is on the fades list as part of a concerning trend where RB1 overall has been 27 or older for three of the last four years, with McCaffrey achieving RB1 overall at age 29 last year.
Nelson Sousa is fading Devon Achane at cost in 2026 drafts, despite Achane averaging 20+ points per game last year with 1,300+ rushing yards.
McCaffrey's explosiveness metrics were lower than in previous seasons, with a lower percentage of plays resulting in explosive gains despite high volume of opportunities.
McCaffrey's value was primarily in receptions last year, and with Mike Evans and Ricky Perol healthy, San Francisco wants to reduce his workload, meaning decreased passing volume is expected.
Nelson Sousa is fading Christian McCaffrey at cost in 2026 drafts, betting on regression due to inefficient rushing performance and expected decreased passing volume with Mike Evans and Ricky Perol added to the offense.
Christian Watson is mentioned as one of the interesting options available in the same draft range as Josh Allen at 37 overall.
Breece Hall is mentioned as one of the elite running back options available in the same draft range as Josh Allen at 37 overall.
Terry McLaurin is mentioned as one of the elite wide receiver options available in the same draft range as Josh Allen at 37 overall.
Joe Burrow is going 28 spots behind Josh Allen as the QB2, establishing the baseline for quarterback ADP.
Colston Loveland is going at 47 overall and offers potential tight end one overall upside if everything goes right, making him accessible in the range where Josh Allen is being drafted.
Josh Allen will be really good, but the gap between QB1 and the rest of the quarterback field suggests waiting at the position rather than taking him at 37 overall.
The opportunity cost of taking Josh Allen at 37 overall is significant—you're passing up potential top-five wide receivers, top-five running backs, and other elite talent in that range.
Josh Allen is going 28 spots ahead of Joe Burrow and 37 overall, which is high relative to the talent available around him, though he could still return value at this price point rather than requiring an early turn pick.
Top-10 rookie receiver added to Saints; expected to take more downfield shots from Cam Ward (whose deep passes were 8.1% of attempts in 2024), creating target share compression for Chris Olave and Wandale Robinson.
Saints QB context for Wandale Robinson's target opportunity; 36% of passing yards came from short-to-intermediate passes (1-10 yards) in 2024, with 26th lowest ADOT; expected to take more downfield shots now that Carnell Tate is in building, but historically comfortable targeting short-yardage receivers like Robinson.
Wandale Robinson was a WR1 in 2024 but is now drafted as WR49 despite only a 3.2 PPG difference from Chris Olave. The source identifies Robinson as decent value with YAC ability that fits Cam Ward's short-to-intermediate passing profile: 36% of Ward's passing yards came from 1-10 yard passes with the 26th lowest ADOT in 2024. Robinson generates PPR points through volume and efficiency without flashiness. The Titans also let Chigaru Conkwo depart, opening target opportunities.
Chris Olave was a WR1 in 2024 but is now drafted as WR13, facing target share compression from top-10 rookie Carnell Tate. The source believes Olave is probably overpriced at current ADP given a 3.2 PPG difference versus Wandale Robinson and incoming competition for targets. The Saints added Tate and A-chan without departing talent, compressing Olave's volume. Olave relied heavily on volume last season, making him vulnerable to target share loss.
Chris Bell is going as WR93 in redraft but suffered an ACL tear at SMU last year, creating an injury discount. While he has a superior athletic profile compared to Caleb Douglas, the Dolphins drafted Douglas over Bell, signaling organizational preference. The source views Bell as the more expensive option (baked potato) compared to the cheaper Douglas (french fries), and prefers Douglas despite acknowledging Bell's athletic advantages, suggesting that opportunity outweighs profile in this case.
Caleb Douglas is going as WR122 in redraft and is one of the source's favorite dirt-cheap sleepers. The Dolphins drafted Douglas over Chris Bell, signaling organizational preference despite Bell's superior athletic profile. Douglas is 6'4", providing size the Dolphins offense needs given the small stature of existing pass catchers like Devon Agholor and Tutu Atwell. The source views Douglas as disrespected by the fantasy community due to prior concerns, but emphasizes that the Dolphins organization wanted him over Bell—an obvious value play that will likely flip closer to draft season as perception corrects.
Joe Burrow is going as QB3 and has an insane ceiling with weapons like Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins. However, at his current ADP, he is being drafted close to his ceiling, making him less attractive than Jared Goff at QB16 who has proven consistency. The source acknowledges that if Burrow falls a few spots or can be stacked with Chase or Higgins at a discount, it is worth the shot, but at QB3 he is overpriced relative to value.
Jared Goff is going as QB16 and has finished as a top-10 quarterback in four straight seasons (QB10, QB7, QB6, QB9 in his last four years with Dan Campbell and the Lions). He has not missed an NFL game in four years, demonstrating reliability. Last year he was second in passing yards and second or third in passing touchdowns. The Lions have the highest implied point total on the season for 2026. Despite this track record, he is being drafted 13 positional spots behind Joe Burrow, which the source views as disrespectful value.
Travis Etienne Jr. is going as RB18 and is compared unfavorably to Tony Pollard at RB32. While Etienne has a higher passing rate in the Jaguars offense and may receive more passing work, this is not guaranteed. Last year his receiving numbers were not significantly better than Pollard's despite being used heavily in the passing game. The source questions whether Etienne's ceiling justifies the 14-spot ADP gap over Pollard.
Tony Pollard is going as RB32 and represents strong value compared to Travis Etienne Jr. at RB18. Last year both had 1,000 rushing yards and finished within 30 yards of each other on the ground, within two rushing touchdowns and three receptions of each other. Both are non-workhorse lead backs on ascending offenses with year-two quarterbacks and rookie receivers added in the top 10. Pollard had PFF's 58th-highest rushing grade (poor) versus Etienne's 42nd (also poor), yet they are separated by 14 positional spots. The source views Pollard as a value play and is not concerned about Nicholas Singleton competition.
Zach Charbonnet is going as RB50 despite a track record of outperforming his ADP every season. Last year he was PFF's third-highest graded rusher and scored 12 rushing touchdowns—matching top-10 running backs like James Cook. He is separated from Jadarian Price by 24 positional spots (RB26) despite being more proven. Jeremy Fowler reported Charbonnet has a late July knee checkup but is progressing well, with Mike McDonald hinting he could return for Week 1. The source views him as a reliable value play with goal-line upside.
Jadarian Price is going as RB26 despite reports indicating he will not immediately assume the full Kenneth Walker role. Brady Henderson reported the Seahawks did not draft Price with the expectation he'd be a high-volume starter immediately. Additionally, Ken Walker himself was not fantasy-relevant last season, so even if Price steps into that role, the upside may be limited. The source prefers the value of Zach Charbonnet at RB50.
Caleb Williams is going as QB7 and represents a premium-priced option relative to his value. While he has an exciting situation with Colson Loveland, Luther Burden, and Rome Dunze, plus Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, he lost DJ Moore this offseason. The source prefers the value of waiting on a later-round quarterback like Bo Nix (QB14) to allocate draft capital to skill positions, viewing Williams as overpriced at his current ADP.
Bo Nix is going as QB14 despite finishing QB7 last season, representing a significant ADP discount relative to production. Last year he had two more rushing touchdowns than Caleb Williams with only 63 fewer rushing yards, 350 fewer passing yards, and three fewer passing touchdowns—a gap that does not justify a seven-spot positional drop. Unlike Williams, who lost DJ Moore, Nix gained Jalen Waddell as a new WR1, improving Denver's offensive situation. The source views Nix as a cost-effective alternative that allows draft capital to be allocated to receiver and running back in middle rounds.
Titans WR listed as part of receiving room depth chart alongside Elick Iomaner and Chimre Dike; the source notes Ridley is a temporary member ('for now'), suggesting uncertainty about his long-term role or potential departure.
Harris views Nicholas Singleton as very, very good running back with high ceiling. Singleton was five-star recruit coming out of high school and is very good athlete. However, Singleton fell in draft due to concerns about mental toughness and effort last season at Penn State, where he appeared to check out mentally after Drew Allar got hurt and Katron Allen took over workload. Harris prefers Katron Allen to Singleton based on college tape, but acknowledges Singleton's ceiling is there if he can get healthy and engaged. Singleton suffered broken foot in spring, which is key variable that will determine how Titans backfield looks. If Singleton is still struggling to get back or misses training camp, Harris will not factor him into regular season expectations, as it is very hard for rookie to miss training camp and then find path to production mid-season. If reports indicate Singleton healed faster than expected and foot is healthy and ready to go, Harris would view backfield as three-headed committee.
Harris has consistently held middle-ground view on Tony Pollard's draft value: willing to take him in seventh round but not in third round; characterizes him as serviceable NFL running back and cagey veteran, rejecting both hype cycles where fantasy community overvalues youth and narrative that he's washed at age 29. If Nick Singleton is healthy and heavily involved in training camp, Harris would move Pollard down in rankings. Singleton's health is key variable that could change backfield dynamic; if Singleton is healthy, three-headed committee with Pollard, Spears, and Singleton would make backfield harder to get read on and potentially cause Harris to avoid position entirely. With new coaching regime and both Pollard and Spears on expiring contracts, team might want to get look at what Singleton can do with bigger role late in year, which would be worst possible scenario for Pollard.
Harris expresses skepticism about Jordan Tyson, noting he doesn't watch college football and all he knows is Tyson has been hurt his entire career. Harris notes that as long as everything is fine and he doesn't get hurt, he would not be mad at someone taking Tyson instead of Jacoby Myers in late-round scenario, as it could work out fine and you're not going to ruin your draft. Harris emphasizes the issue is when you get into should-I-take-AJ-Brown-or-Jordan-Tyson debate, which is when the market has lost the plot.
Harris regrets moving Matthew Golden up in rankings during training camp last year despite pre-training camp conviction he was not a good receiver and Packers reached for him in draft. Golden received nothing but puff pieces from Packers organization and beat reporters during August, with GM and coaches raving about him, causing Harris to begrudgingly move him up and draft him in handful of leagues. Golden finished as WR 40 last year. Harris uses Golden as cautionary example of how training camp hype can override pre-camp conviction. Opportunity cost of reaching on Golden: could have had Mecca Buka instead in eighth or ninth round, who was better at least for couple months.
Harris projects Titans WR Wandale Robinson for 700 yards and 5 TDs despite undersized profile (4 inches shorter and 17 pounds lighter than Amon-Ra St. Brown). Film grades: Speed B, Elusiveness B+, End Zone C, Hands upgraded to B; Situation grade B-. Robinson's 1,014 receiving yards in 2025 would be the highest total for any receiver his height/weight this millennium; Cole Beasley's comparable 967 yards required injury to Malik Nabers and Giants dysfunction. Robinson is a 'hard-working wiggly worm' with fearless play and tackle-breaking ability; Harris willing to use bench spot despite modest projection. However, Titans drafted Carnell Tate fourth overall, which quieted speculation Robinson would become high-volume WR. Cousin Josh's Almanac commentary questions whether Robinson is materially different from Parker Washington or Ladd McConkie, noting WR position is 'super flat' with 'pretty good solutions pretty far down the draft board.'
The source states they do not want Tyler Warren if there are setbacks or complications with Anthony Richardson's Achilles injury recovery. If Richardson shows multiple setbacks, complications, or cannot get up to 100%, the source would be out on the entire Colts passing attack, including Warren.
Harris has drawn line in rankings saying he will draft Carnell Tate until he gets into round four, but will not draft him inside round four regardless of training camp hype. Blended Almanac ranks place him at 60 overall in standard and 57 overall in full PPR (approximately fifth round). Harris views him as talented player with immense ceiling due to fourth-overall draft capital and production profile, but wants to stem irrationality in rookie receiver market and avoid paying up for training camp helium. Harris notes that because last couple of rookie classes have been disappointing, Tate can be drafted at better discount than receivers like Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson were, and that fifth-round pick on him is low-risk relative to earlier rookie receiver investments. Harris acknowledges Tate's ceiling is immense given draft capital, production profile, and athleticism, but notes that good training camp news will only inflate his cost above where it should be. Harris prefers quiet training camp scenario to stem irrationality, as Titans organization is incentivized to hype young draft picks and will share contested catch clips on social media, which could drive his ADP higher than warranted.
The source would love to think Josh Downs might be a sneaky high-catch-rate option in the Colts offense, but his value is entirely dependent on Daniel Jones's health; if Jones suffers a setback and is unavailable for week one, the source would not draft Downs at all. Additionally, if there are setbacks or complications with Anthony Richardson's Achilles injury recovery, the source would be out on the entire Colts passing attack, probably not wanting Josh Downs even if he's the cheapest of the bunch.
Alec Pierce is coming off an injury and his fantasy outlook is heavily dependent on Daniel Jones's health. If Jones suffers a setback and is unavailable for week one, the source would not draft Pierce at all. Additionally, if there are setbacks or complications with Anthony Richardson's Achilles injury recovery, the source would be out on the entire Colts passing attack, including Pierce.
Jonathan Taylor was an RB3 without Daniel Jones healthy last year but was the top-scoring running back with Jones on the field. His fantasy value is entirely dependent on Jones's health status. If Jones suffers a setback or is unavailable for week one, Taylor would fall significantly in rankings, though the source would not let him fall below the middle of the second round even in a worst-case scenario. With Jones healthy, Taylor is an early first-round pick.
Daniel Jones's health is the critical linchpin for the entire Colts offense and all skill weapon values. The Colts offense was one of the best in the league with Jones healthy last year and one of the worst without him. Early reports indicate he should be ready for the start of training camp, but any indication that he is not quite there yet or delayed would trigger panic on the entire offense. The source will monitor his practice status closely and adjust Colts player values based on whether he is on the practice field.
The source does not believe Woody Marks is a good running back and is skeptical that beat reporters can convince him otherwise. While Marks could theoretically play on some third downs and might be involved as a pass catcher, the source views him as unlikely to significantly impact David Montgomery's usage or role. Any positive news about Marks (e.g., pass-catching involvement) may create draft board helium but should not suppress other Texans skill weapon values.
The source is 100% confident that David Montgomery will be the three-down back for the Texans, mirroring the team's intention with Nick Chubb last year and Joe Mixon before his decline. Montgomery is expected to handle all offensive roles and is far and away the better running back compared to Woody Marks, making him the clear focal point of the Texans backfield.
Tank Dell suffered a brutal knee injury and was not 100% at OTAs, still watching from sidelines and doing limited workouts. While he is considered the alpha and leader of the Texans receiver room, his recovery status is critical; the source will not factor him into expectations until preseason performance demonstrates he has returned to pre-injury form. Positive news on Dell could suppress other Texans WR values.
The source came out of film review very positive on Jaden Higgins despite limited opportunities in 2024. While he didn't get to do a ton early in the season, his performance improved as the season progressed, suggesting potential upside if given more opportunities in the Texans receiver room.
The source has a positive feeling about Parker Washington as a slot receiver in the Jaguars offense. Washington was glued to the slot on over 70% of snaps last year, and the source notes that slot receivers in a Liam Cohen offense can be very productive, suggesting defined role clarity and upside within that role.
Travis Hunter's offensive vs. defensive snap split is a critical X-factor for the entire Jaguars WR room. The source expects Hunter to play primarily defense (no cornerback was drafted, filling a position of need), but if he splits time with the offense at 50-60% of snaps in training camp, it would significantly complicate the three-WR room structure and suppress ADP expectations for all Jaguars receivers. The source plans to monitor practice reports closely to determine his offensive involvement.
Jacksonville WR with significant limitations in receiving role; terrified to go over the middle and requires sideline-only deployment. The source notes Collins 'could play anywhere' initially but coaching staff realized he cannot handle middle-of-field routes, forcing them to 'ride him on the rail, on the sideline.' This role limitation constrains his usage and fantasy ceiling in the Jaguars offense.
Jacksonville WR identified as the primary monitoring target for training camp news due to prior injury history. The source notes Thomas is 'probably the key guy to monitor news on if you're going to monitor anybody' in the Jaguars receiving room. In early 2024, the Jaguars attempted to deploy Thomas as an all-field weapon before his injury, but he struggled to produce in that role, adding uncertainty to his role deployment going forward.
Jacksonville RB candidate preferred over Bashaw Tootin due to superior talent profile: breaks tackles, accelerates into contact, keeps offenses on schedule, and posts top-five advanced analytics in broken tackle rate and success rate. Has college connection with Jaguars coach Liam Cohen. Expected to be significantly cheaper than Tootin in drafts despite superior film and analytics. The source expects Rodriguez to be more involved than market pricing suggests unless training camp drumbeat proves otherwise.
Justin Fields is cited as a comparison point for Malik Willis's upside profile, with the source describing Willis's potential as 'Justin Fields-esque,' suggesting similar dual-threat capability and ceiling.
Malik Willis is identified as a high-upside QB option despite significant risk from only six career starts and a first-year defensive-minded head coach with limited proven weapons. In three Green Bay starts, Willis posted elite efficiency: 80% completion percentage, 6 total TDs (3 pass, 3 rush), 200+ passing yards per game, 18 passing attempts per game, 7 rush attempts per game, 58 rush yards per game, and yards-per-attempt matching Drake Mays' league-leading pace. Career EPA exceeds 0.2, completion rate 68%, off-target rate in single digits, passing rating near 100, and 40%+ of passes reaching the sticks. The source emphasizes Willis as a difference-maker in 1QB formats capable of top-10 weeks with Justin Fields-esque and prime Kyler Murray-esque upside. Specific game examples: Week 3 vs. Tennessee (202 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 7 carries, 73 yards); Week 17 vs. Baltimore (288 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 9 carries, 62 yards). The source recommends pairing Willis with a safer QB like Dart in late rounds as a high-upside complement.
Christian McCaffrey has been jumped by Justin Jefferson in ADP rankings across some drafts, indicating a relative decline in draft preference compared to Jefferson's rising stock.
Justin Jefferson is experiencing significant ADP movement upward, jumping both CeeDee Lamb and Christian McCaffrey, and even surpassing John Taylor in some drafts, signaling strong market confidence in his draft positioning.
Justin Jefferson is currently jumping CeeDee Lamb in ADP, indicating a shift in draft market preference away from Lamb in early-season drafts.
Bo Nix is coming off a brutal ankle injury and realized a lot of mobility last year that he might not have this year. The source believes Kyler Murray should be drafted over Bo Nix due to these injury concerns and the loss of mobility.
Kyler Murray should be drafted over Bo Nix and Matt Stafford. His last full season he had 572 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs (not his career high of 800 yards and 11 TDs in 2020). The Vikings waited until round 6 to draft a running back despite having aging Aaron Jones and underwhelming Jordan Mason, suggesting they may be relying on Murray's rushing upside to compensate for backfield deficiencies. The source questions whether Kevin O'Connell is a kingmaker; Vikings macro stats with O'Connell at the helm are very middle-pack—not bad, but nothing top-five in success rate, EPA, or yards per play. However, if Murray wins the job definitively, his ADP will climb.
Chris Olave is being paired with Tyler Shuck as a back-end WR1 at back-end WR1 price. The source notes Olave commands targets consistently and, combined with the Saints' fast-track schedule and bad defenses, could finish as a mid-tier WR1 at a discount. The source is bullish on the Saints as a value pairing.
Daniel Jones suffered a leg injury in week 14 and the source is worried about his health status heading into 2026. While he was QB7 in points per game weeks 1-13 (18.5 PPG, top 5 in EPA per attempt and YPA), the source is not drafting him due to injury concerns and uncertainty about full health at week 1, despite him being expected to participate in 7-on-7 drills and be a full participant at training camp.
Matthew Stafford finished QB4 last year as QB23 in ADP and is now QB14 at ADP 102; however, the source views his QB4 finish as fluky and likely to regress. Last year's 7.7% TD per attempt was a career high by a mile, though he has a 5.5% career rate. In the two years prior, he was QB26 and QB17 in points per game, throwing 20+ more TDs last year than those seasons. Without rushing production, he is dependent on Devontae Adams for goal-line scoring, but Adams' own numbers may not be sustainable. Late-round value is available if he stays healthy, but regression is expected.
Trevor Lawrence finished QB3 last year as QB20 in ADP and is now QB10 at ADP 91; the market is settling in the middle, not buying the top-side finish but viewing him as a back-end QB1. He had seven top-10 finishes and four top-five finishes. Regression risk is significant: 640 dropbacks and nine rushing scores are hard to project again. Bull case: Liam Cohen continuity, progression in critical snaps, arm and feet production, and mid-stream talent additions (Myers). Standalone value exists due to talented receiver room (Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Parker Washington) and pairing flexibility with Brenton Strange at tight end.