NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Thursday, July 9, 2026

If Travis Hunter is really playing 40-70% of snaps on offense as this example suggests, it's going to be pretty hard to make the #math work for Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington as fantasy assets.

If Travis Hunter is really playing 40-70% of snaps on offense as this example suggests, it's going to be pretty hard to make the #math work for Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington as fantasy assets.

If Travis Hunter is really playing 40-70% of snaps on offense as this example suggests, it's going to be pretty hard to make the #math work for Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington as fantasy assets.

Tyler Shough on rookie WR Jordyn Tyson: "He's like an elite hooper. He's going to go jump out the gym on somebody. He's going to get open in the most crazy way, but he's also got this grittiness to him that I feel like not a lot of people give him credit for." (via @​greenlight)

Most PPR fantasy points over a WR's first five career games [Since the Berlin Wall fell] 1. Puka Nacua - 115.6 2. Randy Moss - 104.7 3. Emeka Egbuka - 102.4 4. Malik Nabers - 99.7 5. Ja'Marr Chase - 98.4

Most PPR fantasy points over a WR's first five career games [Since the Berlin Wall fell] 1. Puka Nacua - 115.6 2. Randy Moss - 104.7 3. Emeka Egbuka - 102.4 4. Malik Nabers - 99.7 5. Ja'Marr Chase - 98.4

Most PPR fantasy points over a WR's first five career games [Since the Berlin Wall fell] 1. Puka Nacua - 115.6 2. Randy Moss - 104.7 3. Emeka Egbuka - 102.4 4. Malik Nabers - 99.7 5. Ja'Marr Chase - 98.4

Most PPR fantasy points over a WR's first five career games [Since the Berlin Wall fell] 1. Puka Nacua - 115.6 2. Randy Moss - 104.7 3. Emeka Egbuka - 102.4 4. Malik Nabers - 99.7 5. Ja'Marr Chase - 98.4

Emeka Egbuka in Weeks 1-5 [rank among all 150+ route rookie seasons in @​FantasyPtsData history] 0.23 TPRR [~21st] 2.71 YPRR [~3rd] 20.5 FPG [1st] 13.6 XFP/G [~9th] In Week 6-on (after injuring his hamstring) 0.27 TPRR [~7th] 1.50 YPRR [~40th] 7.8 FPG [~43rd] 13.4 XFP/G [~11th]

.@​alec_lewis believes WR Jauan Jennings is the Vikings' newcomer to watch this season: "His skill set adds a rugged receiving option who can dictate in certain personnel groupings to defenses. He adds a fascinating new wrinkle to Minnesota’s offense." (via @​TheAthletic)

Wild but true: Sixers' Jaylen Brown revealed that he and Patriots WR A.J. Brown are cousins 🤯 "We're cousins. A.J. Brown — my grandpa just told me — his grandfather is brothers with my grandfather." (via @​NBCSBoston)

Wild but true: Sixers' Jaylen Brown revealed that he and Patriots WR A.J. Brown are cousins 🤯 "We're cousins. A.J. Brown — my grandpa just told me — his grandfather is brothers with my grandfather." (via @​NBCSBoston)

Used as example of ranking variance within same show; one analyst ranked him 5th, another 13th, illustrating difficulty of grading shows with multiple conflicting voices.

Community notes The Fantasy Footballers were good at finding value in low-confidence spots; Michael Wilson cited as example of their ability to identify breakout candidates in 'shambles' situations.

FF Counselor START call counted as hit; methodology critique notes that starting Josh Allen every week shouldn't count for much since he's a weekly start, yet current system treats it same as correctly calling a breakout player.

FF Counselor START call counted as hit; used as example of consensus/chalk call in accuracy grading.

Appears in FF Counselor receipts as START hit; also cited as example of player Josh & Hayden (prop parlay show) would never actually tell listeners to sit, raising questions about how sit calls are attributed to shows that don't explicitly make them.

Cited as example of 'chalk call' that inflates accuracy across all shows; FF Counselor START call on CMC counted as hit; used as illustration of how easy consensus recommendations don't distinguish analytical skill.

Alec Ingold getting a little momentum from the motion and launching a defender into another defender

Tank Bigsby since the 2024 season, among 44 RBs w/ 200+ carries (per @​FantasyPtsData): + 4.86 YPC (8th) + 3.26 yards after contact/att (1st) + 0.19 MTF/Att (t-8th) + 5.6% explosive rush rate (10th) + 1.49 explosive rush yds/att (8th) He's also 6th among all RBs in EPA/Rush in this time. Bigsby has all the makings of a top-tier handcuff. He’s got the size + talent to assume a strong workload and not get boxed out of meaningful work by another RB/a vet off the street. A lot of theoretical hand...

Tank Bigsby since the 2024 season, among 44 RBs w/ 200+ carries (per @​FantasyPtsData): + 4.86 YPC (8th) + 3.26 yards after contact/att (1st) + 0.19 MTF/Att (t-8th) + 5.6% explosive rush rate (10th) + 1.49 explosive rush yds/att (8th) He's also 6th among all RBs in EPA/Rush in this time. Bigsby has all the makings of a top-tier handcuff. He’s got the size + talent to assume a strong workload and not get boxed out of meaningful work by another RB/a vet off the street. A lot of theoretical hand...

Tank Bigsby since the 2024 season, among 44 RBs w/ 200+ carries (per @​FantasyPtsData): + 4.86 YPC (8th) + 3.26 yards after contact/att (1st) + 0.19 MTF/Att (t-8th) + 5.6% explosive rush rate (10th) + 1.49 explosive rush yds/att (8th) He's also 6th among all RBs in EPA/Rush in this time. Bigsby has all the makings of a top-tier handcuff. He’s got the size + talent to assume a strong workload and not get boxed out of meaningful work by another RB/a vet off the street. A lot of theoretical hand...

Community notes Giants QB Daniel Jones is 'kooky Dart looking to get knocked the fuck out,' suggesting volatility and injury risk at QB position compounds Nabers' downside. One comment advises 'Don't do it. You can't fix him' in context of Jones' unpredictability.

One comment mentions 'This is feeding my Isaiah Likely hype' in context of Nabers' injury uncertainty, suggesting Likely could benefit from Giants' passing game uncertainty or as alternative TE target if Nabers misses time.

Community uses Rice's 2025 suspension as comparison point: Rice missed time due to suspension (not injury), which is easier to calculate and manage in draft strategy. Rice came back and 'balled out' when healthy. Key distinction: suspension is a known timeline with no injury risk upon return; Nabers' injury carries reinjury risk, potential loss of athleticism, and unknown return-to-performance timeline. Multiple comments note suspension is 'much easier calculation' than injury because suspended player is only focused on getting back and proving themselves, whereas injured player may have lost a step or be unable to reach in-season form. Rice was 'fully healthy but suspended'; Nabers is 'n...

Raanan speculating (not reporting) that Nabers could miss first 4-5 games of 2026 due to ACL tear plus meniscus and cartilage damage from September 2024 injury. injury is significantly worse than Rashee Rice's suspension last year because cartilage damage has much longer recovery timeline than isolated ACL; even modern ACL recoveries are faster, but meniscus/cartilage damage is 'a bear of a recovery.' Nabers was on crutches for extended period post-surgery; if 4-5 game miss is accurate, that's ~13+ months post-injury, which is long for modern standards. Current ADP 18-44 per Fantasy Pros. Community heavily bearish: most won't draft before round 4-5, many advocate complete avoidance. Conce...

Sat down with the legend @​LordReebs to talk about the 10 biggest QB questions ahead of the 2026 fantasy football season! -Is Josh Allen REALLY worth a 3rd-round pick? -Justin Herbert no matter what? -How should you draft QBs in superflex? -MUCH MORE 📽️ <https://www.youtube.com/@>​ihartitz

Sat down with the legend @​LordReebs to talk about the 10 biggest QB questions ahead of the 2026 fantasy football season! -Is Josh Allen REALLY worth a 3rd-round pick? -Justin Herbert no matter what? -How should you draft QBs in superflex? -MUCH MORE 📽️ <https://www.youtube.com/@>​ihartitz

Okay but what about Brandon Aiyuk [Quoted](

QBs with 0 playoff wins as the starter: Justin Herbert Malik Willis Geno Smith Kyler Murray/JJ McCarthy Tua/Penix Jacoby Brissett Cam Ward (year 2) Jaxson Dart (year 2) Tyler Shough (year 2)

I dug into QB performance vs. pressure/blitz and how it impacts Fantasy Football Interesting takeaways on: - CeeDee Lamb / George Pickens - Ladd McConkey - Chris Olave - Jakobi Meyers / Parker Washington / Brian Thomas Jr. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tt6FNFBurg>

I dug into QB performance vs. pressure/blitz and how it impacts Fantasy Football Interesting takeaways on: - CeeDee Lamb / George Pickens - Ladd McConkey - Chris Olave - Jakobi Meyers / Parker Washington / Brian Thomas Jr. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tt6FNFBurg>

I dug into QB performance vs. pressure/blitz and how it impacts Fantasy Football Interesting takeaways on: - CeeDee Lamb / George Pickens - Ladd McConkey - Chris Olave - Jakobi Meyers / Parker Washington / Brian Thomas Jr. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tt6FNFBurg>

I dug into QB performance vs. pressure/blitz and how it impacts Fantasy Football Interesting takeaways on: - CeeDee Lamb / George Pickens - Ladd McConkey - Chris Olave - Jakobi Meyers / Parker Washington / Brian Thomas Jr. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tt6FNFBurg>

I dug into QB performance vs. pressure/blitz and how it impacts Fantasy Football Interesting takeaways on: - CeeDee Lamb / George Pickens - Ladd McConkey - Chris Olave - Jakobi Meyers / Parker Washington / Brian Thomas Jr. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tt6FNFBurg>

I dug into QB performance vs. pressure/blitz and how it impacts Fantasy Football Interesting takeaways on: - CeeDee Lamb / George Pickens - Ladd McConkey - Chris Olave - Jakobi Meyers / Parker Washington / Brian Thomas Jr. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tt6FNFBurg>

I dug into QB performance vs. pressure/blitz and how it impacts Fantasy Football Interesting takeaways on: - CeeDee Lamb / George Pickens - Ladd McConkey - Chris Olave - Jakobi Meyers / Parker Washington / Brian Thomas Jr. <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tt6FNFBurg>

I think a lot of these lists are using metrics that can’t separate scheme from talent. But also weird because the 49ers had the worst run blocking they had in the Shanahan era since 2017. [Quoted](

Tank Bigsby is THE handcuff to target 🎯

Justin Jefferson is currently the WR6 in fantasy drafts. Is that… TOO HIGH TOO LOW JUST RIGHT

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

.@​FanSided ranked the top WR duos in the NFL: 1) CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens 2) Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins 3) Puka Nacua/Davante Adams 4) Amon-Ra/Jameson Williams 5) Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison 6) Jaylen Waddle/Courtland Sutton 7) AJ Brown/Romeo Doubs 8) Christian Watson/Reed

That first preseason depth chart with Jadarian Price listed as RB3 is going to hit like crack

Last season only three running backs had 100+ combined carries and targets with *0* total drops and fumbles: -Rachaad White -Chris Rodriguez -Brian Robinson

Last season only three running backs had 100+ combined carries and targets with *0* total drops and fumbles: -Rachaad White -Chris Rodriguez -Brian Robinson

Last season only three running backs had 100+ combined carries and targets with *0* total drops and fumbles: -Rachaad White -Chris Rodriguez -Brian Robinson

Community comparison point: one Seahawks fan would take JSN over Amon-Ra in Lions' Petzing offense, citing JSN's elite skill despite Petzing's predictable playcalling (Gibbs up middle, deep ball, punt pattern).

Article highlights Shane Steichen as playcaller who 'just worked a miracle with Daniel Jones'; Steichen identified as standing out on play-action and during-snap motion efficiency chart alongside McShanahan tree and Ben Johnson.

Article cites Todd Monken as playcaller who gave 'hyper-efficient Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry seasons'; Monken identified as standing out on play-action and during-snap motion efficiency chart.

Article cites Todd Monken as playcaller who gave 'hyper-efficient Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry seasons'; Monken identified as standing out on play-action and during-snap motion efficiency chart.

Mentioned in comments as player whose shares are 'reeling' in context of article's playcaller analysis; one commenter using Achane to stay invested in Dolphins despite expecting team to be bad.

Article discusses Price as running talent but not as bellcow/pass-catcher for fantasy. Price isn't K9 (Ken Walker III); Holani/Wilson aren't Charbs (Rashaad Penny); Seahawks rushing attack expected to regress in 2026 due to personnel downgrade and negative game script normalization.

Article flags JSN as biggest WR breakout of 2025 under Kubiak's personnel usage (2-WR sets), but warns efficiency may regress from 'basically any angle' despite shifting variables. Community pushback: Seahawks had 4th-lowest pass rate due to elite defense and rushing attack; both should regress in 2026 (Price isn't K9, defense has rookie growing pains). Counter-argument: JSN is elite talent getting open regardless of scheme; highest-paid WR in NFL; tape shows consistent separation; Kubiak is competent OC who will use him in 2-WR sets. Debate centers on whether 2025 efficiency was sustainable or scheme-dependent.

Every Cam Ward scramble for a first down in 2025

We need to stop with the Tucker Kraft-Rob Gronkowski post ACL comparisons

Most touchdowns last season among everyone with an Underdog ADP outside of the top-200 picks: 1. Free agent RB Kareem Hunt (9) 2. Rams TE Colby Parkinson (8) T3. Patriots (for now) WR Kayshon Boutte (6) T3. Broncos WR Troy Franklin (6) T3. Free agent TE Darren Waller (6)

Most touchdowns last season among everyone with an Underdog ADP outside of the top-200 picks: 1. Free agent RB Kareem Hunt (9) 2. Rams TE Colby Parkinson (8) T3. Patriots (for now) WR Kayshon Boutte (6) T3. Broncos WR Troy Franklin (6) T3. Free agent TE Darren Waller (6)

The source is completely out on Worthy as a draft target, citing structural limitations in the Kansas City offense. Despite the Chiefs leading the league in deep passing with Tyreek Hill, the source views Worthy as lacking the elite separation ability to consistently exploit that strength and prefers to avoid the receiver tier where Worthy falls, instead waiting on quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence before dipping into that receiver pool.

Round 10 fade. The source has been a consistent hater throughout the evaluation process and explicitly states he will not draft a single share of Golden in round 10. The source's prospect model rated Isaiah Bond as a better prospect than Golden, indicating a fundamental preference for Bond's profile over Golden's.

Tyquan Thornton is a better deep threat than Xavier Worthy; he has superior ball-tracking ability and athleticism, making him a more reliable deep-ball receiver. Though Thornton was the worst deep-ball receiver in college by career yards per target on deep passes, he has since developed into a superior ball tracker compared to Worthy; his athleticism and tape improvement make him a better deep-threat option. The source has been a Thornton truther since college and prefers him over Worthy at their respective draft prices.

Xavier Worthy is being drafted in round 8 as a top-45 WR despite ranking WR54 in points per game over the last two seasons; the source believes he should be a 10th–12th round pick at best, making his current ADP an insane overvalue. He has never been a good deep threat; Brett Whitfield has documented that he is poor at tracking the ball in the air, a weakness that showed up all over his tape last year; combined with his small frame, this limits his ceiling in the Chiefs passing game. In games where Worthy plays alongside a healthy Rashee Rice, his fantasy production has been completely worthless, posting sub-10 XFP per game; he is clearly the third target on the Chiefs and will see limited volume. Patrick Mahomes is not the same deep-throwing quarterback he was early in his career and is coming off an ACL tear; combined with the Chiefs leaning more run-heavy with Ken Walker involved, Worthy faces structural headwinds that limit his upside.

Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback; significant downside risk for Cardinals receivers if he underperforms. If Brissett struggles by week 13 and Carson Beck takes over, fantasy outlook for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson becomes 'completely buried.' Brissett's performance directly impacts passing volume and receiver viability in Arizona offense.

Arizona Cardinals backup quarterback; represents massive downside risk for Cardinals receivers. The source believes there's 'really high chance' Beck starts entirety of second half. Brett Whitfield graded Beck around 5, suggesting poor performance quality. If Beck takes over from Jacoby Brissett, fantasy outcomes for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson could be 'disastrously bad.'

Established as clear alpha receiver in Arizona Cardinals offense; consistently commands 25% target share regardless of health status. The source notes McBride 'rolls out of bed and gets 25% of the targets. He could be injured and get 25% of the targets.' When both McBride and Harrison Jr. were on field last year, McBride posted 25.0% target share (half percentage point behind Harrison Jr.'s 25.7%), confirming his entrenched role as primary option in the Cardinals passing game.

Emerged as secondary option when Marvin Harrison Jr. was sidelined; now has four times as many career good games as Harrison Jr.; when both were on field last year, Wilson posted 15.8% target share (WR49 ranking), significantly behind Harrison Jr.'s 25.7% (top 12); however, Wilson's emergence during Harrison's absence suggests potential for continued role expansion or at least maintained opportunity in 2025.

Seventh-round fade with significant concerns: limited career production (two 100-yard games, both as a rookie), injury history (missed time last year with appendicitis), and role uncertainty in new regime; when healthy in nine full games last year, posted 21% target share and 42% air yards (13.8 expected fantasy points per game, WR13 by XFP), which would rank top 12 in target/air yard share; however, posted concerning 1.31 yards per route run (awful efficiency), raising questions about converting volume into production; significant downside risk if Jacoby Brissett underperforms and Carson Beck (graded around 5 by Brett Whitfield) starts in second half; current price at WR33 is deemed fair but not a core target.

Sixth-round fade and the only overpriced quarterback in the 2025 draft; requires 40 touchdowns to justify mid-sixth-round ADP, a threshold the source views as unrealistic; compared unfavorably to Brock Purdy (who averages 19.5 PPG since 2023 vs. Burrow's 19.4 PPG, goes three rounds later, has a better play caller) and Dak Prescott (similar upside, drafted 1.5 rounds later); also compared to Baker Mayfield, who has posted nearly identical fantasy PPG (0.6 PPG less in 2025, 0.2 less in 2024, 1.5 more in 2023) while going seven rounds earlier; the source emphasizes this is a redraft critique, not a best-ball argument, and notes the late-round QB market (QB7–QB18) is loaded with alternatives.

Value alternative to Joe Burrow with similar upside; drafted 1.5 rounds later than Burrow; the source argues Prescott could throw 35 touchdowns and produce similar fantasy output while being available significantly later in the draft.

Superior value alternative to Joe Burrow; averages 19.5 PPG since 2023 (vs. Burrow's 19.4 PPG), drafted three rounds later; has a better play caller than Burrow and is less injury-prone, making him a cheaper pocket passer with similar upside in the late-round QB market.

Fifth-round fade with RB 29 projection; accumulated only 8 XFP across 17 games played alongside Stevenson in 2024, requiring him to essentially double that output to justify ADP; the source is completely out on Henderson, ranking him below Stevenson and identifying him as the lead player in the fifth-round running back dead zone.

Clear lead back in the Patriots backfield ahead of Trayveon Henderson; significantly outperformed Henderson in playoff games and EPA-per-play splits; better fit for Josh McDaniels' man-gap run scheme (which favors Stevenson over Henderson's outside-zone skill set); ranked ahead of Henderson in Fantasy Points' projections.

Despite injury concerns (ACL, major ankle injury), Godwin represents an arbitrage play as a PPR cheat code when healthy. The weak receiver room around him (compared to Egbuka's situation) creates opportunity. Jeff Mueller, a top injury expert, is bullish on Godwin's recovery prospects, suggesting the market may be undervaluing his return to form.

Baker Mayfield was top-five to top-six in catchable throw rate in 2024, but that metric cratered last year due to injuries he played through (foot, toe, biceps, knee, oblique, illness, shoulder left and right). With a legitimate play-caller upgrade from Josh Grizzard to Zach Robinson (from the McVay tree), Mayfield's performance should improve. He has been a top-five quarterback off play action over the last three seasons. Comparable fantasy output to Joe Burrow at a significant ADP discount: posted 0.6 PPG less than Burrow in 2025, 0.2 PPG less in 2024, and 1.5 PPG more in 2023, while going seven rounds earlier.

Jaylen McMillan came off IR from a serious neck injury and immediately looked awesome, beating Emeka Egbuka in both targets and routes. This late-season emergence suggests McMillan could be a significant factor in the Buccaneers' passing game going forward, potentially limiting Egbuka's target share.

Ben Solak predicts Emeka Egbuka will lead the league in receptions this year, playing the Z position in Zach Robinson's offense where Cooper Kupp went nuclear. In the first five weeks before injury, Egbuka was a top-five fantasy wide receiver. However, the source is conflicted: in the final five weeks, he was the team's wide receiver four and looked awful, though he was dealing with injury and Baker Mayfield was also hurt. The source describes Egbuka as 'the toughest player for me this season,' torn between elite upside that wins championships and significant downside risk relative to other wide receivers in his range. Jaylen McMillan came off IR from a serious neck injury and immediately beat Egbuka in both targets and routes, further limiting his target share.

The source prefers Zay Flowers straight up over Ladd McConkey, indicating Flowers offers better value or upside at their respective draft prices in the wide receiver range.

The source prefers Luther Burden straight up over Ladd McConkey, suggesting Burden offers better value or upside at their respective draft prices in the wide receiver range.

The source and co-host both prefer Terry McLaurin straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective ADPs, indicating McLaurin offers better value or upside in the wide receiver range where McConkey is being drafted.

Mike McDaniel is 'drooling over' Quentin Johnston as his Deebo Samuel-lite, comparing him to Julio Jones and Andre Johnson. Johnston led all wide receivers in missed tackles forced per reception last year and was a YAC god in college. Though he ranks dead last in air yards since entering the league and can't separate, the Deebo role—which never required elite separation—suits his skill set perfectly.

The source believes Keenan Allen 'still got it' and has maintained amazing rapport with Justin Herbert. Allen exemplifies older route-running technicians who age gracefully because their game relies on deception, IQ, and film study rather than raw athleticism. Despite being priced like he's retired, the source is not worried about Allen's ability to contribute in the Chargers offense.

The source fades McConkey in round 4 despite elite rookie second-half production. McConkey averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game with 26% target share and 106.8 yards per game in the second half of his rookie season—the best by any rookie WR all time, surpassing Puka Nacua, Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers. However, full-year performance was poor ('he was so bad last year') and there are better WRs in his draft range. When all three Chargers wide receivers were on the field simultaneously, McConkey ranked fourth in yards per route run behind Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Jalen Johnston, suggesting role compression and reduced alpha status. The source states: 'I'm fading Ladd McConkey... there's wide receivers in that range I like more.'

Kamara has been 'awful the last 3 years' with significant injury burden, dealing with a ton of injuries. When healthy, he averaged 5.5 yards per carry from four years ago. He remains the team's pass-catching specialist on passing downs and a locker room leader, which limits Etienne's high-value target opportunities. Even a 'dusty, washed' Kamara is still probably a better pass catcher than Etienne. Over his career, Kamara has been more efficient, forced more missed tackles, and been better than Etienne despite playing in a worse offensive situation.

The source 'absolutely hates' Etienne at his current price and allocates 0.0% draft capital to him. Over three seasons, Etienne ranks third-worst in yards per carry, bottom-10 in explosive run rate, third-worst in success rate, bottom-10 in yards after contact per attempt, and second-worst in EPA per run among 40 RBs. He has not been very efficient on the ground and is an overrated pass catcher, miscast as a good receiver coming out of college; he's primarily a dump-and-run or screen guy. Alvin Kamara, even at the end of his career in a worse offensive situation, has been more efficient, forced more missed tackles, and been better than Etienne. The source states: 'he kind of stinks... he might be one of the worst picks at cost in all of drafts... I will have a 0.0 of Etienne this year... we're not drafting you in round three.'

The source prefers Brock Bowers straight up over Jeremiah Love in round 2, describing him as 'a hammer league winner this year,' indicating strong upside and breakout potential.

The source would take pretty much all receivers in Jeremiah Love's draft pocket over him, including Drake London, indicating strong preference for London at his ADP relative to Love.

The source would take pretty much all receivers in Jeremiah Love's draft pocket over him, including A.J. Brown, indicating strong preference for Brown at his ADP relative to Love.

The source is 'the world's biggest James Conner truther' and believes Conner would be a mid-to-high-end fantasy RB2 if he goes to the Vikings. Over the last three seasons, Conner leads all running backs in missed tackles forced per touch, yards after contact per attempt, and explosive play rate. Despite being injury-prone and aging, the source values him highly and prefers him over Jeremiah Love in round 2.

Backfield competition concern for Jeremiah Love in Arizona; looked incredible at Florida State but is part of Arizona's crowded running back committee that includes James Conner, Tyler Allgeier, and Breece Hall Robinson, limiting Love's touch share.

Historical rookie RB comparison for snap share patterns; was getting only 50% of snaps for half the season in his rookie year, illustrating delayed opportunity for rookie running backs despite prospect pedigree.

Round 9 fade due to injury history, limited passing-down role, and ceiling concerns. Dobbins has suffered catastrophic injuries in three of the last four years (ACL tear in 2021, Achilles tear in 2023, foot injury in 2024, knee injury limiting games in 2024), and the source projects him to lose the pass-down role to RJ Harvey or Jonah Coleman. While he may score 11–12 fantasy points per game as a low-end RB2, the source questions his upside significantly in round 9, viewing him as a small ADP beater at best but lacking the ceiling needed at that draft stage. Historically, Dobbins didn't reach 15 touches until week 8 of his rookie year, supporting the pattern that rookie running backs are often over-projected for immediate snap share and touches.

Historical rookie RB comparison for touch and snap share projection patterns; took until Marlon Mack's ACL injury for Taylor to get significant volume, illustrating how rookie running backs often don't receive projected touches and snap share immediately.

Backfield competition concern for Jeremiah Love in Arizona; may steal goal-line carries, adding to the touch committee in Arizona's crowded running back room alongside Trey Benson and James Conner.

Preferred ahead of Jeremiah Love in projections despite off-field concerns causing him to slip in drafts toward the 3–4 turn. The source has Jacobs ranked above Love due to Love's bad offensive situation and quarterback concerns.

Preferred alternative to Jeremiah Love in round 2; goes 5–6 picks later than Love and is ranked ahead in projections despite being in an arguably similar or worse offensive situation. The source prefers Hall straight up and notes he might have a better role this season than Jahmyr Gibbs, making him a better value target in the middle of the third round.

Used as a prospect comparison point to Jeremiah Love; the source states Gibbs was a significantly better prospect than Love and went to a significantly better situation. Mentioned alongside Breece Hall as a third-round target, with the source noting Hall might have a better role this season than Gibbs.

Fantasy Points fades Jeremiah Love as a second-round rookie running back despite being an awesome prospect with clear three-down potential. Love has an inferior prospect profile compared to Jahmyr Gibbs and significantly worse situation: Cardinals are 31st in implied points per game (only Jets lower by 0.3 ppg), have hardest strength of schedule with average opponent win total of 9.3 (Dolphins second at 9.1). Rookie RBs historically struggle with snap share and efficiency (Jonathan Taylor took until Marlon Mack's ACL injury for volume; JK Dobbins didn't reach 15 touches until week 8; David Montgomery was getting 50% of snaps half the season). Arizona's backfield has touch competition from Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson, and James Conner. Fantasy Points projects Love will eventually have top-12 fantasy seasons but not in 2026, preferring Breece Hall (5-6 picks later) and Josh Jacobs ahead of Love.

Fantasy Points expresses caution on De'Von Achane as a back-end first-round fade despite league-winning upside potential. While acknowledging Achane could lead all running backs and has legitimate league-winning upside that Jefferson lacks, Fantasy Points prefers to avoid him in round one. Achane busted last year but finished RB17 in points per game, giving him a much higher floor than Jefferson's 8.6 ppg. However, Fantasy Points remains hesitant on the back-end first-round price point.

Fantasy Points prefers Jalen Nailor as a safer round-one alternative to Justin Jefferson due to significantly higher floor despite lower ceiling. Jefferson still has top-five ceiling due to talent, but his floor is significantly lower than Nailor's, positioning Nailor as the safer round-one pick with better downside protection.

Fantasy Points identifies Justin Jefferson as the spicier round-one fade, calling his 2024 performance 'colossally bad' with a floor no other round-one or round-two player possessed. From week 10 through the end of the fantasy season (final nine games), Jefferson averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game, ranking 46th overall—tied with Theo Wease and barely ahead of Chimere Dike. Vikings' EPA per play was worse with Jefferson on field than off field last year—a red flag for a star player. Film shows regression from 2023 to 2024. Jefferson retains top-5 ceiling due to talent, but his floor is significantly lower than Jalen Nailor. If JJ McCarthy is the Vikings starter, Jefferson's 2025 outlook could be 'apocalyptically bad.'

Scott Barrett notes Rashid Shaheed joined the Seahawks mid-season and is 'really good,' with Barrett identifying as a long-time Shaheed truther who expects increased involvement in 2025. Shaheed's emergence is cited as a key reason for JSN's regression risk and overpriced ADP.

Fantasy Points fades JSN in mid-round one, citing overpriced ADP (fifth overall in some spots) relative to massive regression risk. JSN achieved the best yards per team pass attempt season by a wide receiver since Lance Alworth in 1965, but the Seahawks ran hotter than the sun with heavy personnel usage that won't repeat; teams stupidly matched with base defense, which won't happen again. Rashid Shaheed's mid-season arrival and improved involvement, plus Tory Horton's emergence, further compress JSN's target share. Fantasy Points prefers Christian McCaffrey and Amon-Ra St. Brown above JSN in round one.

Fantasy Points ranks Christian McCaffrey above Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round one as a preferred pick at mid-round-one ADP.

Fantasy Points ranks Amon-Ra St. Brown above Jaxon Smith-Njigba in round one as a preferred pick at mid-round-one ADP.

Christian McCaffrey was observed working with trainer Ido Portal on movement culture and mobility training, suggesting ongoing focus on physical conditioning and shoulder mobility as part of his training regimen.

Micah Parsels' return timeline for the Green Bay Packers remains uncertain; the source notes 'We'll see if Micah Parsons gets back early for the Green Bay Packers,' indicating ongoing injury status without clarity on when he will be available.

Young is positioned for growth in year two with Brad Izzik as the new play-caller and Dave Canales in a CEO role. Izzik's specialty is wide receivers and his connection with Young has been really cool to see. Izzik challenged Young to be more vocal with the team and use his leadership, and Young responded by showing a different version of himself to players. The Panthers created a basketball team of 6'3 or taller receivers for Young, which should help unleash the offense in a new way.

Herbert is getting a significant offensive system upgrade with Mike McDaniel as the new offensive coordinator for the Chargers. McDaniel is changing Herbert's footwork, moving his shotgun snap stance to have his left foot forward instead of right foot forward to fit the timing of his offense. Timing is king with McDaniel; at the peak of his time with Tua, they were scoring 70 points and leading the league in scoring. McDaniel watched every throw Herbert has thrown in his career and put together a presentation of 100+ throws to show what he could do better, with the goal of speeding up his progressions and time to throw.

Brown was recommended as a top-five to seven pick last year, which didn't work out, but the source isn't blaming AJ. He could still play at a very high level. Drake Maye was the best deep-ball thrower in football statistically last year, and this system is going to get the most out of him more than what the Eagles were doing last year. There's less target competition than he had the last few years in Philadelphia, so a big bounce-back year is expected.

Brown is one of 15 first-round caliber players but only 12 can fit in the first round. The source thinks he's highly underrated. He was better last year than he was in 2024, yet there's less hype around him coming into this season. Once Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow played from week five-six on last year, he was the fifth-best running back in fantasy. He's a dual-threat guy who sees goal-line work.

Cook is ranked 12th overall. The Bills paid him before the season last year, which led to him having career highs in carries, rushing yards, and fantasy points. He's had 32 touchdowns in the last two seasons. The talk right now is that there could be even more involvement for him in the passing game. If that happens, his upside is top-five or even higher at the running back position.

Jeanty is ranked 11th overall. Some people say he was disappointing last year, but the source thinks he was a lot better than people realize. His stats are eye-popping and he's top-five in basically all metrics. What held him back was the situation, but things are better now. The Broncos improved their offensive line in a big way, quarterback play could be better, and Clint Kubiak, who won the Super Bowl with the Seahawks last year, is now calling the plays. The source is very excited for what Jeanty could do in year two.

McCaffrey is ranked 10th overall. While his ceiling is being the best player in fantasy, the source has significant concerns about drafting him this year. Last year he had the fewest rushing yards over expectations of all running backs and had 450 touches. Every running back since 2010 who had that many touches in a season saw their yards decrease by at least 38% the following year. McCaffrey had over 400 touches once in his career; the following two years he played 10 games combined. The risk is higher with someone at his age coming off that many touches.

Lamb is ranked 9th overall. He was a fantasy wide receiver 1 in points per game for four straight seasons tied to a great offense and great play-calling. The Cowboys brought back largely the same roster as last season, so Lamb is expected to continue to eat. When he and Dak Prescott are both healthy, he operates out of the slot where a 5'10 cornerback will have a hard time stopping him. Dak has finished as the Cowboys' leading passer in nine seasons, with top-10 scoring offenses in two of those and the number-one scoring offense in one.

Jefferson is ranked 8th overall as the wide receiver 5 in this year's class. He's the most obvious touchdown regression candidate ever, having had the lowest end-zone catch rate in football last year and being one of a handful of wide receivers with as many targets but only two or fewer touchdowns. Despite this, he's still probably the best or top-three talent at wide receiver. He gets a quarterback upgrade now with Kyler Murray, who helped DeAndre Hopkins be a wide receiver 1 for years in Arizona and is an upgrade from what Minnesota had last year.

Taylor is ranked 7th overall. At one point last season it looked like if you didn't have Jonathan Taylor on your team, you weren't going to win a championship, but that was before Daniel Jones got hurt. Good news: he's going to be healthy this year. Last year with Daniel Jones, Taylor averaged 24 fantasy points per game, which fell to 13 after Jones was hurt. He also led all running backs with five 30-point fantasy games. He's going to get all the goal-line work and is one of the safest running back picks with a very high ceiling.

JSN is ranked 6th overall. What he did last year was amazing and he was off-the-charts efficient with the highest percentage of a team's receiving yards by any player in the last 12 seasons. However, the Seahawks were tied with Baltimore for the lowest pass rate in the league last year with no Clint Kubiak, which is enough concern to push Amon-Ra St. Brown just ahead of him, though 6th overall is still a strong ranking.

St. Brown is ranked 5th overall. Metrically he is fantastic as the focal point of a high-powered passing attack with tons of scoring opportunities. He's been a top-four wide receiver in total points and points per game in each of the last three years and is consistent week-to-week, with 11 games last year with 15+ fantasy points, the third most amongst all wide receivers.

Nakua is the 1B wide receiver and the 4th overall pick. He was the wide receiver 1 in total points and points per game last year with the highest yards per route run in next-gen stats era and led the league in target rate. He had 10 games with 22+ fantasy points, the second most by a wide receiver in the Super Bowl era. If injuries could be turned off, he'd be the unquestioned 1.1, but he's missed time in recent years and his quarterback is older with a back issue, which is why he's ranked 4th.

Chase is the wide receiver 1 in a 1A/1B situation with Puka Nakua. He's been a top-three wide receiver each of the last two years with probably the highest weekly ceiling of any wide receiver. With the same offensive coordinator and quarterback, and the last time both played a full season Chase won the triple crown and was the runaway best player in fantasy. He's been more available than other top receivers, which is a huge asset for fantasy.

Robinson is the 1B to Gibbs' 1A, with both running backs expected to be neck and neck in fantasy points every year. Robinson was the only player with at least 360 touches in each of the last two seasons; with Tyler Algier gone, he could reach new heights after previously splitting goal-line looks. He's explosive, a great receiver, and can handle a ton of work.

Allen reports that he is constantly thinking about football and how to improve, even during the offseason. He is excited to return to training camp on July 28th and get things in full swing. As a new father, he is prioritizing sleep and recovery, aiming to be in bed before midnight and working with Nature All products (Ultra Sleep and Ultra Energy) to optimize sleep quality and energy levels.

The Cowboys are being deliberate about having Prescott run the offense from under center more frequently, which will enable him to make certain throws to running backs and wide receivers. This represents a tactical emphasis for the 2026 season.

The Cowboys plan to use Pickens in the slot more frequently in 2026. Last season he was in the slot on only about 10% of plays, so this represents a significant role expansion that the source identifies as 'going to be real interesting to watch.'

Hunter's offensive usage will fluctuate game-to-game (40-70% snap share depending on opponent and game plan) but he remains a two-way player. The Jaguars have four starting-caliber receivers (Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers) allowing them to rotate players and maintain depth. Hunter's most productive game was his last, when he recorded 14 targets offensively, and the Jaguars are confident he will build off that performance if he stays healthy.

The source projects significant year-two upside for Hunter despite a rookie season cut short by knee injury. Hunter is running over 20 mph (faster than pre-injury), cutting well, and is expected to be full go for training camp. The Jaguars plan to unleash him as a starter on defense with the goal of having him play nearly all snaps on defense in particular games, with one Jaguars coach projecting he could be a top-10 cornerback by next year if development continues. He will still play significant offensive snaps (fluctuating 40-70% game-to-game) and his best game was his last, when he had 14 targets offensively.

Mendoza will report to Raiders training camp on July 23rd (earlier than the rest of the roster on July 28th) and is learning from Kirk Cousins in the quarterback room. Cousins' preparation methods—staying after hours until 7 p.m. studying, meticulous note-taking, and information processing—are serving as a model for Mendoza's own development process.

The source expresses high confidence in Mendoza's rookie and long-term NFL career prospects, citing his willingness to learn from elite coaching staff (Clint Kubiak, Andrew Ginoco, Mike Sullivan) and his detailed, methodical approach to setting and exceeding performance milestones. The source does not expect him to start week one—Kirk Cousins is projected as the starter—but expects Mendoza to be ready and play well when he enters the game.

Caleb Williams targeted Luther Burden on money downs and third/fourth down plays late in the season, though the results were mixed.

Burden is expected to emerge as the Amon-Ra St. Brown role in the Bears offense under Ben Johnson; he was getting significant playing time and third/fourth down targets late in his rookie season.

Analyst ranks Nabers at 26 overall and won't take him in round four as a top 20 WR; there's too much uncertainty about his PUP status (4-6 weeks) and when he'll be fully available, making him more of a round five pick.

Drake May at round four is a steal with upside to finish as QB1, capable of being a league-winner at his ADP with his weapons and mobility.

Lamar Jackson at round four is a steal with upside to finish as QB1, capable of being a league-winner at his ADP.

Swift at 45th overall (round four, pick 9) is a bit too rich; he's more of a round five pick and shares carries at a similar level to Kyron Williams but without guaranteed goal-line work.

Wilson was taken in round four but analyst doesn't mind the pick, though he's not among the four picks he loves most in that round.

Williams is a strong fourth-round value with 19 opportunities per game, double-digit touches in all 16 games, 62 red zone touches (5th most among RBs), and top-12 target ranking among running backs.

Corum had 39% of touches last year with the Rams, and while there's concern about his role expansion, he's not expected to dramatically increase his snap share.

Williams is a strong fourth-round value despite Blake Corum competition; he had 39% of touches last year and will continue to get goal-line work in one of the best offenses, averaging 16 PPR points per game in games where Corum played 30%+ snaps.

Loveland is consensus tight end three and available at a discount in round four, allowing teams to skip the premium tight ends and get him later at tier one value.

McBride at 3.08 is the best value in round three; he's a McBride believer who expects Arizona to target him heavily under LaFleur, and Jacoby Brissett has a tendency to lean into tight ends.

Bowers is a strong value at 30th overall as the best player in Las Vegas's receiving core and de facto wide receiver one under Clint Kubiak's Shanahan-style offense, and rarely lasts this long in drafts.

Smith is a strong value in round three because he's been a top 10 WR both with and without A.J. Brown, averaging 15-17 PPR points per game in games without Brown, and now becomes the offense's number one receiver.

Analyst believes Flowers went about a full round too soon at 3.03, projecting him as a top 16 receiver but not a round three pick given his 6.5-6.8 targets per game and lack of red zone involvement.

Love was the second pick of round three in the listener mock draft.

Olave was the first pick of round three in the listener mock draft.

In 2023, Hill had legal scrutiny and off-field issues but led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,799 yards, demonstrating elite performance despite distractions.

In 2012, Peterson came off an ACL injury with off-field questions about his future but ran for 2,100 yards, serving as a historical example of a player overcoming adversity.

Analyst joked that Nabers' poor running form in a softball game cost him about a round of ADP.

Analyst made a light observation about Rice's mobility while evading reporters at jail, noting he appeared to be moving well.

Off-field legal issues create uncertainty about his availability and focus heading into the season, making him a risky pick at his ADP despite being a top 10 talent.

George Pickens went eleventh in round two, but Bob Harris dislikes this pick because he's coming off an unusually great season with circumstances that may have set him up for it, and wide receivers rarely repeat as top-12 PPR finishers year-to-year (only one set since 2014).

Nico Collins went tenth in round two at the tail end, and Bob Harris sees him going there a lot with more upside available at that spot.

Kenneth Walker III went ninth in round two (21st overall).

Rasheed Rice went eighth in round two, but Jake Seeley dislikes this pick due to uncertainty around his legal situation and the Jacobs situation, making it too risky a gamble for a top-10 talent at this draft position in July.

A.J. Brown went sixth in round two. Bob Harris notes he has two top-five seasons in his career and could easily do another one in fantasy.

CeeDee Lamb went fifth in round two. Bob Harris notes he could be the best wide receiver and has headed into seasons as the WR1, suggesting he has top-five upside.

Derrick Henry went third in round two. All three analysts rank him fourth among the four top running backs in round two, behind James Cook, Chase Brown, and Saquon Barkley.

Saquon Barkley went second in round two. All three analysts rank him third among the four top running backs in round two, behind James Cook and Chase Brown but ahead of Derrick Henry.

Chase Brown went first in round two. Dave Richard, Jake Seeley, and Bob Harris all rank him second among the four top running backs in round two, behind James Cook but ahead of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.

James Cook went in the second round and is Dave Richard's favorite pick of round two, representing first-round value. Despite concerns about his 385-touch workload, Jake Seeley notes Cook improved his yards per touch on both rushing and receiving despite 100 more carries, and he still doesn't have 1,000 career touches, making the workload concern overblown.

Devon Achan went twelfth overall in the first round.

Justin Jefferson went eleventh overall, but Dave Richard and Bob Harris both express concern about his quarterback situation with Kyler Murray, noting that J.J. McCarthy was terrible last year and that Jefferson needs a competent quarterback to reach his ceiling.

Drake London went tenth overall, but Dave Richard expresses concern about his quarterback situation and whether Michael Penix Jr. will start, noting the stark difference in numbers with and without Penix last year, making him a risky first-round pick.

Christian McCaffrey went eighth overall, and Bob Harris calls this his favorite pick in round one because despite being over 30 and coming off a 400+ touch season, Kyle Shanahan's system will give him the workload to easily outperform the eighth spot.

Jonathan Taylor went fifth overall in round one, but Jake Seeley dislikes this pick because Taylor's performance is heavily dependent on game script—he averaged 30 PPR points per game in Colts wins but only 10 in losses, creating a 20-point gap that suggests he should go later in the first round.

Puka Nakua went fourth overall in the mock draft and is part of the consensus top-six tier of picks.

Jamar Chase went second overall in the mock draft and is part of the consensus top-six tier of picks.

Keaton Mitchell of the Los Angeles Chargers is primed to emerge as a league-winning pick, positioned similarly to how Devon Achane has emerged in Miami's backfield alongside Raheem Mostert.

The analyst is 'not even high on McBride at all this year versus the market' but drafted him five spots below ADP in a Scott Fishbowl league because the scoring settings favor tight ends.

With Kyler Murray stepping in as quarterback, the analyst is 'totally fine with drafting Justin Jefferson this year' and likes the Minnesota offense, noting that Kyler has supported elite receivers like DeAndre Hopkins in the past.

Jefferson played 6.1 PPR points per game below expected last year due to poor quarterback play and conversion issues despite maintained usage, but the analyst is 'neutral' because Jefferson has been a top-10 ADP wide receiver since his rookie year and only underperformed ADP once (last year), and his yards per route run falling below 2.5 for the first time is likely not a skill decline.

Barkley played 3.5 points per game below expected last year, largely due to poor offensive line play, but the analyst is 'kind of neutral' because while there's fear his explosiveness has declined (1.4% 20-plus yard run rate, worst of his career), his base usage actually improved year-over-year compared to his Super Bowl-winning season.

Golden had a 1.35 yards per route run rate and 6% first downs per route run rate in his rookie season, and combined with a questionable prospect profile, the analyst is 'mostly out' on him despite a playoff touchdown.

Thomas saw his target share decline from about 25% to 19% last season, though the analyst notes he was injured and the environment remains positive.

Thomas played 6.5 points per game below expected last year despite unchanged air yards per game, failing to convert splash plays like he did as a rookie, posting a 7% first downs per route run rate and 1.50 yards per route run, but the analyst is 'more neutral' given the positive environment and his rookie success.

Moore has posted a sub-7% first downs per route run rate in back-to-back seasons and been below 1.5 yards per route run in back-to-back seasons, both very poor numbers for a top-30 wide receiver, making the analyst 'out' despite the hypothetical fit with Josh Allen.

The analyst has been drafting Lamar in best ball and believes the gap between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in ADP is too wide, suggesting Jackson offers value relative to his draft position.

Jackson played 4.3 points per game below expected last year, but the analyst views it as an outlier season and expects him to bounce back to 6-7 rushing points per game (down from his 9-point peak) with a new offensive coordinator and no hamstring issues.

Walker goes at the one-two turn on DraftKings in best ball but is outside the top 12 running backs on almost every season-long platform, making him more attractive in season-long formats at RB15 than in best ball.

Walker hasn't been above an 8% target share in all but one season of his career, and both Amari DiMarcado and Emmitt Johnson are pass-catching backs, which creates concern about his receiving role in Kansas City.

Walker played about two points per game below expected last year due to backfield splitting with Zach Charbonnet, and while he faces easier competition in Kansas City, the analyst is 'more neutral' because the key concern is whether Kansas City will deploy him in pass-catching situations to elevate him from RB10 to RB6 range.

Jeanty is available at RB8 ADP on some platforms and the analyst is 'in at that cost,' placing him in the same tier as James Cook and Jonathan Taylor.

Jeanty played 2.4 PPR points per game below expected last year due to a 30th-ranked PFF run-blocking offensive line, but with Colton Miller and Tyler Linderbaum returning, the analyst expects the line to improve significantly and projects Jeanty as RB4 in market score, available at RB8 ADP on some platforms.

Jeanty played 2.4 PPR points per game below expectation last year, making him a bounce-back candidate.

There's a shot for Henderson to earn more work versus Ramond Ray Stevenson in camp, but he may have a shorter leash than desired; the analyst is neutral on a Henderson breakout this year.

Claiborne is an undersized, speedy receiving back similar to Aaron Jones' archetype, drafted to fill a pass-catching role rather than as a bell-cow back.

Jones is an aged running back who may not be able to carry a big workload and will mainly spell and eat into pass downs in the Vikings backfield.

Mason is ranked slightly ahead of Aaron Jones in half-PPR and could easily walk into 200 carries this year given the Vikings' improved offense and better game scripts with Kyler Murray.

Per insider reports, this is Jordan Mason's backfield with Aaron Jones mainly spelling and eating into pass downs.

McBride is scary this year because he ran so many routes last year; if his routes regressed to the second-most in the league (Travis Kelce's level), he would have scored 3.5 fewer PPR points per game based on his fantasy points per route run.

The Packers often don't get their pass catchers enough routes, which is a downside risk for Craft's fantasy production.

Craft is ranked as tight end 5 right now, right after the big four, with potential to be George Kittle-like with excellent yards per target and after-the-catch ability.

Craft might be ready for training camp, not just week one, which would be welcome news for Packers and fantasy fans.

Barner is listed as a breakout candidate tight end, with Seattle expected to throw more this season.

All is a big, explosive tight end who out-snapped Tanner Hudson in 5 of 9 games last year and could see increased role coming off injury; he's a deep-cut breakout candidate for dynasty leagues.

Olszewski is listed as a breakout candidate for the Packers at tight end.

Rodriguez has only 6 receptions across 3 NFL seasons and does not catch passes, limiting his fantasy upside compared to pass-catching backs; the Jaguars' pursuit of JK Dobbins suggests Rodriguez was a backup plan, not a priority.

Beat reporters expect Chris Rodriguez to carve out a big role, though the analyst expresses skepticism about the narrative surrounding him.

David Montgomery is ranked three spots above season-long market ADP, making him a value pick despite not being a high-ceiling talent, as he's projected to get significant volume in Houston's improved offensive line.

Woody Marks is being used as a third-down pass-catching back and kickoff returner, not as a bell cow, with concerns about his durability as he frequently ended up in the blue tent last season.

Tyrone Tracy has an undefined role in the Giants offense and may not be the RB2, with concerns about his efficiency as a pass catcher at the NFL level despite being a wide receiver convert.

Kirk Cousins took all first-team reps in Raiders offseason practices and is likely to start Week 1, though he's expected to be benched by Week 6-10 when the team becomes uncompetitive.

Dallas Goddert may benefit from Eli Stowers falling behind in the tight end pecking order for the Eagles.

The Late-Round model liked Kenyon Sadiq more than Eli Stowers during draft season, and while he hasn't found the field due to hernia surgery, he remains a prospect with comparable production and athleticism to Stowers.

Eli Stowers appears to be way behind the pecking order at tight end, dropping significantly in best ball drafts, though he remains a viable late-round dart in redraft when paired with a Jalen Hurts stack.

Mostert famously had 20 rushing touchdowns in a season under Mike McDaniel, demonstrating the potential for high touchdown production in that offense.

Josh Allen is listed at 10-to-1 odds for rushing touchdown leader, competing with running backs for the title.

The analyst is sprinkling 150-to-1 long-shot money on Jordan Mason for rushing touchdowns, believing the thesis from last year still applies despite longer odds.

Jordan Mason was a bust last year as the entire Vikings offense underperformed under McCarthy, though the analyst is considering a 150-to-1 long-shot bet on him for rushing touchdowns.

Kyron Williams is the primary back for the Rams, with Blake Corum positioned as a backup option if Williams gets injured.

Corum had 27 rushing touchdowns in his final year at Michigan, showing he has the ability to score at a high rate if given the opportunity in Los Angeles.

Blake Corum is an 80-to-1 long-shot bet for rushing touchdown leader, with potential upside if Kyron Williams gets injured, and he saw decent goal-line opportunities last year.

Jaylen Warren was listed at 60-to-1 odds for rushing yards leader, though the analyst was uncertain about the play.

The analyst views Dylan Sampson as a 'Jag' and believes the Browns' decision to start Judkins in week two despite missing training camp was a 'slam the door in the face' to Sampson.

The Browns improved their offensive line with four new starters, added fullback Michael Burton, and hired Todd Monken (who rode Derek Henry hard in Baltimore), signaling commitment to the run game.

Judkins averaged 59.1 rushing yards per game last year (22nd in league) despite missing training camp and OTAs, and was on pace for 280 carries (7th most in NFL), showing the Browns' commitment to him.

Judkins is a 30-to-1 long-shot bet for rushing yards leader, with the analyst expecting a 'Yeti-like season' given improved offensive line, new receivers, and the Browns' commitment to the run game.

The analyst does not believe in Keaton Mitchell as a significant contributor in the Chargers backfield, preferring Vidal over him.

Pacheco will have some usage but not the high-volume role that Dave Montgomery had, with concerns about his explosiveness following multiple injuries.

The analyst's prospect model rated Isaiah Bond as a better prospect than Matthew Golden.

The analyst is fading Matthew Golden in round 10, stating he will not draft a single share of this player and has been a hater throughout the process.

Jonah Coleman is expected to potentially take over the pass-down role for the Broncos, limiting JK Dobbins' receiving opportunities.

RJ Harvey is expected to take over the pass-down role for the Broncos, potentially limiting JK Dobbins' receiving opportunities.

Jeremiah Love is identified as a potential buy-low candidate in week 4, suggesting he may be undervalued early in the season.

JK Dobbins is viewed as a potential sell-high candidate in week 4, offering decent floor value despite ceiling concerns in round 9.

The co-analyst counters that Dobbins ranks top 10 in career yards per carry when healthy, plays for an elite Denver offense with the top offensive line in football, and Sean Payton called him an 'acquire at all cost player,' suggesting strong productivity if he stays healthy.

The analyst fades JK Dobbins in round 9, citing his injury-prone history (three catastrophic injuries in four years), lack of pass-down role upside, and concerns that he'll only score 11-12 fantasy points per game as a low-end RB2.

The analyst is not a fan of Xavien Worthy, citing structural concerns with the Dolphins' passing game and quarterback arm strength limitations despite Tyreek Hill's deep-ball success.

Alex Smith led the league in deep passing with Tyreek Hill despite having no arm strength, showcasing Hill's impact on quarterback deep ball performance.

Tua Tagovailoa led the league in deep passing with Tyreek Hill despite having limited arm strength, demonstrating Hill's ability to elevate quarterback performance.

Tyreek Hill is described as a kingmaker and the greatest offensive player non-quarterback of the generation, elevating quarterbacks' deep passing ability and creating wide-open plays.

When Rashee Rice is healthy and not dealing with off-field issues, Xavier Worthy's role becomes completely worthless for fantasy purposes.

Patrick Mahomes is not the same deep throwing quarterback he was early in his career and is coming off an ACL tear, which may impact his deep passing ability.

Tyquan Thornton is a better deep threat than Xavier Worthy and has superior ball tracking ability compared to Worthy's career worst yards per target on deep passes.

Xavier Worthy has never been a good deep threat; he's tiny and really bad at tracking the ball in the air, which was evident on his tape last year.

Xavier Worthy is clearly the third target on the Chiefs and has been completely worthless for fantasy when playing alongside Rashee Rice, posting sub-10 XFP per game.

Xavier Worthy is being drafted in round 8 but should be a 10th-12th round pick; he's wide receiver 54 in points per game over the last two seasons yet drafted as a top 45 WR.

Michael Wilson had a target share of just 15.8%, ranking him as wide receiver 49 when MHJ and McBride were on field.

Trey McBride was just half a percentage point behind MHJ in target share when both were on field.

When on field with Michael Wilson, MHJ led in target share at 25.7%, which would have ranked top 12, but had a concerning 1.31 yards per route run, which is awful.

Analyst warns Carson Beck has a high chance of starting the second half of the season and received a poor grade (around 5) from Brett Whitfield, which could be disastrous for Cardinals receivers.

Despite high target share, Harrison posted only 1.31 yards per route run last year, which is considered awful efficiency.

When both Harrison and Wilson were on field last year, Wilson's target share dropped to 15.8% (WR49), well below both Harrison and McBride.

When both Harrison and Wilson were on field last year, Harrison led with 25.7% target share (top-12 ranking), with McBride at 25.2%, suggesting Harrison was already the alpha receiver.

Analyst warns of significant downside risk if backup QB Jacoby Brissett underperforms or Carson Beck takes over, which could bury both Harrison and Michael Wilson in fantasy production.

Analyst warns of significant downside risk if backup QB Jacoby Brissett underperforms or Carson Beck takes over, which could bury both Harrison and Michael Wilson in fantasy production.

Analyst highlights McBride as the clear alpha target for Arizona, consistently commanding 25% of targets regardless of health status.

Analyst notes Harrison likely won't be the clear number-one receiver unless he takes a significant step forward, with Trey McBride clearly positioned as the alpha target.

Second analyst argues Harrison's current draft price (WR33) is fair value, noting he played 9 full games with 60%+ snaps last year, posting 21% target share and 42% air yards for 13.8 expected fantasy points per game (WR13 by XFP).

When Harrison missed time last year, Michael Wilson emerged significantly, accumulating four times as many career good games as Harrison has in his entire career.

Analyst notes mental concerns with Harrison based on tape review, including a dropped end-zone pass where he appeared emotional and moped throughout the game, though talent remains present.

Analyst refuses to draft him in round 7, citing only two career 100-yard games (both as a rookie), missed time last year, and concerns about nepotism in his top-5 draft selection rather than merit-based evaluation.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the player being targeted as a fade in round seven; while there's an argument he could be a round-three pick if healthy, the analyst expresses concern about his durability and value at his current ADP.

Burrow is overpriced compared to late-round quarterback alternatives; he averages 19.4 fantasy points per game since 2023, nearly identical to Brock Purdy's 19.5, while being more injury-prone and going seven rounds earlier than Baker Mayfield.

Burrow is arguably the only overpriced quarterback in fantasy and should not be a mid-sixth round pick; he needs 40 touchdowns to justify his ADP when similar upside can be found with Brock Purdy three rounds later or Dak Prescott a round and a half later.

Henderson is the most expensive handcuff in football, as his upside depends entirely on a Stevenson injury, making him a risky fifth-round pick in the running back dead zone.

Henderson had only 8 XFP in 17 games played alongside Stevenson last year and is a fifth-round pick who would need to literally double that output to justify his ADP. Fantasy Points has him buried at RB29 with Rhamondre Stevenson ahead of him.

Stevenson was significantly better than Henderson in EPA per play splits and is the better fit for Josh McDaniels' man gap run scheme preferences.

Fantasy Points has Henderson buried in projections at RB 29 and ranks Rhamondre Stevenson ahead of him, indicating they are completely out on Henderson at his fifth-round ADP.

Henderson had only 8 XFP in 17 games played alongside Rhamondre Stevenson last year and would need to literally double that output to justify his fifth-round ADP.

Henderson is a great outside zone run guy but Josh McDaniels calls outside zone at a bottom-five rate and prefers man gap schemes where Rhamondre Stevenson is the better fit.

Henderson was a non-factor in the most important games last season, with only a 25% snap share in the playoffs and significantly worse EPA per play splits compared to Rhamondre Stevenson.

Injury expert Jeff Mueller is bullish on Chris Godwin's recovery and believes he will be back to form, contrary to assumptions that he is washed.

Godwin has injury concerns including an ACL tear and major ankle injury, raising questions about whether he has lost a step.

Chris Godwin is a PPR cheat code when healthy with screen pass upside, and represents good arbitrage value given the weak wide receiver group around him compared to other top options.

Baker Mayfield was top five to top six in catchable throw rate in 2024, and has been a top five quarterback off play action over the last three seasons, benefiting from new play caller Zach Robinson from the McVay tree.

Baker Mayfield was on the injury report 11 times last year with foot, toe, biceps, knee, oblique, illness, shoulder left, and shoulder right injuries, playing through everything but not always playing well.

McMillan came off IR from a neck injury and looked impressive, beating his competition in both targets and routes.

Baker Mayfield had a top-five to top-six catchable throw rate in 2024, but that cratered last year due to playing through injuries; a play caller upgrade from Josh Grizzard to Zach Robinson (from the McVay tree) should help in the play action department.

Jaylen McMillan came off IR from a bad neck injury and looked awesome, beating Emeka Egbuka in both targets and routes.

In the last five weeks of the 2024 season, Emeka Egbuka was totally cocked by Jaylen McMillan and was the team's wide receiver four, looking awful despite being healthy.

In the first five weeks of the 2024 season before injury, Emeka Egbuka looked amazing and was a top-five fantasy wide receiver.

Ben Solak predicts Emeka Egbuka will lead the league in receptions this year, playing the Z position in Zach Robinson's offense where Cooper Kupp went nuclear.

Zay Flowers is preferred straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective draft prices, representing better value in the wide receiver range.

Luther Burden is preferred straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective draft prices, representing better value in the wide receiver range.

Terry McLaurin is preferred straight up over Ladd McConkey at their respective draft prices, representing better value in the wide receiver range.

Mike McDaniel is drooling over Quentin Johnston as his Deebo Samuel-lite in a role where Johnston can excel; he led all wide receivers in missed tackles forced per reception last year and was a YAC god in college, fitting the Deebo mold of a below-average separator who excels in space.

Keenan Allen still has it and maintains amazing rapport with Justin Herbert; as an older route-running technician who was never highly athletic, he should age more gracefully than athletic receivers due to relying on deception, IQ, and film study rather than raw athleticism.

McConkey averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game with a 26% target share and 106.8 yards per game in the second half of his rookie season, the best by any rookie wide receiver all time—better than Puka Nacua, Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Malik Nabers.

McConkey is overpriced at his current ADP as wide receiver 16-17 despite clear WR1 upside; he was fourth in yards per route run when all three Chargers WRs were on field, behind Keenan Allen, QJ, and Johnston, representing a significant drop-off from his elite rookie season performance.

Justin Jefferson was so bad last year, and at his current price point, there are better wide receiver options available.

De'Von Achane is so much better than Travis Etienne.

Kyren Williams, even in a split with Blake Corum, might be preferred over Travis Etienne because the Rams offense is going to be really good.