NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Tuesday, July 21, 2026

How many times do I need to tell you, Josh Downs (Sleeper ADP shown here) is too cheap (even on UD)? Ofcourse the rec yard O/U prop is closer to a median, but Downs (and Wan’Dale, who I wrote about) are very live to lead their teams in receptions/targets

How many times do I need to tell you, Josh Downs (Sleeper ADP shown here) is too cheap (even on UD)? Ofcourse the rec yard O/U prop is closer to a median, but Downs (and Wan’Dale, who I wrote about) are very live to lead their teams in receptions/targets

Schefter mentions "the 49ers may be very careful" with George Kittle, who is aiming to return Week 1. He had his surgery on January 14th of this year. "Why rush him back?" is a fair question. <https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/training-camp-notes-for-all-32-teams-position-battles/id1190094109?i=1000777774303>

Everything coming out of SF about Evans is making me think the FF world is underestimating his ceiling this year [Quoted](

We talked with @​MatthewColler about Justin Jefferson this year if Kyler Murray becomes the starting QB We know Murray loves focusing on his main receiver; Hopkins, Kirk, McBride 🎥 <https://t.ly/kvMXP> 🎧 <https://t.ly/aRz-T> Here's part of what Matthew had to say⤵️

Yesterday on the Fantasy Life Show about Jacory Croskey-Merritt:

Emmanuel Acho doesn't think the 49ers should sign Deebo Samuel: "I'm not gonna pay a glorified mascot top tier money ... if you a hype man, I’m not paying you to be a hype man. I’m paying you to get 1,400 yards." Deebo's response:

Justin Jefferson on who is the best CB that he’s gone against: "If I had somebody that really played me true man-to-man all game, then I can answer that question. But I haven't had a true 1-on-1 game for a long time now." 🥶 (@​ESPNNFL)

On Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs Rachaad White: Everything I've read keeps pointing to JCM having the opportunity to be the featured back Again, signals are they don't want to tip run/pass with personnel Team needs JCM (more dynamic) to showcase pass pro & pass catching

On Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs Rachaad White: Everything I've read keeps pointing to JCM having the opportunity to be the featured back Again, signals are they don't want to tip run/pass with personnel Team needs JCM (more dynamic) to showcase pass pro & pass catching

Jones is fully participating in training camp, indicating he is healthy and ready for the 2026 season without injury concerns.

Tua is reported as the leading candidate for Week 1, indicating he is positioned to start the season as the Dolphins' quarterback.

Kittle's efficiency post-Achilles injury is being evaluated, indicating recovery concerns and potential impact on his fantasy production.

Tolbert is reported as the Dolphins' early WR1, indicating he is positioned as the team's top receiving target for the 2026 season.

Etienne is projected to share the backfield with Kamara, indicating a potential committee approach to the running back role.

Kamara's role is being projected alongside Etienne, indicating potential workload split and need to evaluate his fantasy value in a committee situation.

Lamb's WR1 status is being challenged by Pickens, indicating potential competition for target share and receiving role.

Lemon is positioned to make an immediate impact for the Eagles, suggesting he has opportunity for significant playing time and fantasy relevance.

LaPorta remains a TE1 in fantasy, indicating he is expected to maintain elite tight end status for the 2026 season.

Mahomes as fantasy's QB10 overall 'feels right,' indicating the source agrees with his current ranking and sees it as appropriately valued.

Brissett's new deal is characterized as a 'win-win' for both sides, suggesting positive alignment and role security for the upcoming season.

Kraft being placed on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list signals continued recovery from his knee injury and potential delayed availability for the 2026 season.

Achane is reportedly 'a full-go' for training camp, indicating he is healthy and ready for the upcoming season without injury concerns.

Olave's hold-in may impact his fantasy value negatively, suggesting potential role or usage concerns tied to his contract holdout situation.

Nix's recovery boosts his fantasy outlook for 2026, indicating improved health status supports positive performance expectations.

Samuel's return to the 49ers is characterized as a 'perfect reunion,' suggesting positive alignment with the team's offensive scheme and his fantasy outlook.

'All eyes' are on Hunter in Jaguars training camp, indicating he is a focal point of evaluation and potential role development.

Jones is fully participating in training camp for the Colts, indicating he is healthy and ready for the season.

Tua is reported as the leading candidate for Week 1, indicating he has secured the starting quarterback role.

Kittle's efficiency post-Achilles injury is being evaluated, indicating concerns about his performance recovery following the injury.

Tolbert is reported to be the Dolphins' early WR1, indicating he has secured a top receiving role on the team.

Kamara's role is being projected alongside Etienne, indicating shared backfield duties and potential role uncertainty.

Pickens vs. Lamb comparison evaluates whether Pickens can earn the WR1 spot, indicating competition for top-tier wide receiver status.

Swift's ability to find his way into the RB1 rankings is being evaluated, indicating uncertainty about his fantasy tier placement.

LaPorta remains a TE1 in fantasy, indicating the source maintains a top-tier tight end ranking for him.

Mahomes as fantasy's QB10 overall 'feels right,' indicating the source agrees with his current ranking and projection.

The 49ers could look to Stribling in Kirk's absence, indicating potential role changes and opportunity shifts.

The new Brissett deal is characterized as a 'win-win' for both sides, suggesting positive implications for his role and fantasy outlook.

Penix Jr. (knee) 'probably won't' play in Week 1, indicating he will likely miss the season opener due to knee injury.

Achane is reportedly 'a full-go' for training camp, indicating he is healthy and ready to participate fully in preparation.

Dell's fantasy outlook for 2026 is being evaluated by the source.

Olave's hold-in could impact his fantasy value negatively, suggesting potential concerns about his availability or role.

Nix's recovery boosts his fantasy outlook for 2026, indicating improved performance expectations following his recovery.

Samuel's return to the 49ers is characterized as a 'perfect reunion,' suggesting positive fantasy outlook with his return to the team.

Kraft is returning from a season-ending knee injury heading into 2026; the source evaluates his fantasy ceiling as he works back from this significant injury.

Irving enters training camp with the expectation of being a full participant despite a shoulder injury, positioning him as a potential RB1 candidate for Week 1 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Commanders Insider, Ben Standig, on Chig Okonkwo: "..opportunity to become one of the offense's featured weapons." Again we'll see if the Commanders add a legit WR2 (Stefon Diggs) or if Chig will operate as that Top-2 pass catcher

Spreads ball too much for any WR to reach ADP; showed real chemistry with Washington late 2024 (10+ targets/game); built rapport with Meyers last year. Accuracy concerns noted; described as skinny Josh Allen clone vulturing TDs. Comments suggest Lawrence is the play if you want Jags offense exposure; better target than any individual WR. Some note he can't throw outside the numbers (favors slot). Took all WRs to offseason throws except BTJ (possible beef?). Inconsistent accuracy limits ceiling for any receiver.

Dual-role player (WR/CB) drafted #2 overall; most talented receiver on roster per some comments but defensive needs may limit offensive snaps. Jags said he'll play both sides; coach clarified not full-time WR. Comments debate whether part-time role limits value or creates option value; some see him as potential monster in bestball; others note he's WR4 at best in redraft. Biletnikoff Award winner; can play slot/inline/out wide. Potential breakout if DB room struggles or injuries occur, but currently viewed as boom/bust flex play with limited weekly consistency.

Cheapest ADP of trio; extended by Jags but underperformed after Washington's breakout (under 45 yards in 5 of last 6 games 2024). High floor, capped ceiling; reliable hands but not athletic relative to peers. PPR value higher than standard. Comments note he's a plodder athletically; great value only if no one separates and split is even; likely WR3 on team. Some prefer him in PPR for consistency; others see him as 4th option behind Hunter. Tlaw built rapport with him last year but chemistry may not sustain with Washington emerging.

Showed real chemistry with Lawrence down stretch: 10+ targets/game last 4 games of 2024 (vs. BTJ's 4, Meyers' 7); won routes against top CBs; signed extension immediately after breakout. Coen loves slot receivers (see Godwin 2024); Washington's size/build fits slot role. Concerns: smaller frame may limit him in 12/13 personnel sets; snap count uncertainty with heavier TE usage. Comments emphasize eye test and film quality; some call him steal at ADP; others note he outperformed all three when healthy. Ranked #1 by multiple commenters; described as most trusted by Lawrence.

Elite rookie year (WR11 through week 9 with Lawrence; best stretch with Mac Jones) vs. sophomore cratering; injured preseason 2024; close friend died last year affecting mental state. Upside ceiling remains highest but boom/bust profile due to deep-route usage. Concerns: Lawrence chemistry never established; Coen offense runs through slot not outside; force-fed as only healthy option in 2023. Comments split: some see talent will win out eventually (60% snap trend), others burned by drops/underperformance and avoiding entirely. ADP suggests market skepticism despite pedigree.

Maybe the answer isn’t: “draft Carnell Tate in Fantasy Football” Maybe the answer is: “trade for Carnell Tate in Week 5”

5 Data Based Buys in dynasty: 1 - QB Fernando Mendoza 2 - TE Michael Mayer 3 - RB Dylan Sampson 4 - WR Christian Watson 5 - WR Jayden Reed (@​BlakeFreitagFF / @​MaxAdamFF)

5 Data Based Buys in dynasty: 1 - QB Fernando Mendoza 2 - TE Michael Mayer 3 - RB Dylan Sampson 4 - WR Christian Watson 5 - WR Jayden Reed (@​BlakeFreitagFF / @​MaxAdamFF)

Justin Jefferson on which CB gives him the best battles, via @​ESPNNFL: "If I had somebody that really played me true man-to-man all game, then I can answer that question. But I haven't had a true 1-on-1 game for a long time now."

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

Reminder that NFI is for non-related football injuries or college injuries. Teams can expect to not pay the base salary but majority of cases do pay. It’s more procedural than anything. Players can be placed on NFI or PUP and be removed at any point, it does not guarantee that they will miss 4 weeks of the season. A player must start training camp on PUP to be eligible to be placed on R/PUP during the season (miss weeks 1-4 at a minimum). -Players I expect to start on A/PUP or NFI and move to...

.@​RomeovilleKid believes RB Jonathan Taylor could — and should — hold in for a new contract. Taylor, who's entering the final year of his 3-year, $42M deal, has said he wants to "be a Colt for life." (via @​TheAthleticNFL)

Does Caleb Williams need to do a better job hitting his layups? Yes. Is it amazing that Caleb Williams can pull off this voodoo witchcraft shit? Yes.

Malik Willis looking for his receiving corps: [Quoted](

The Dolphins have placed WR Chris Bell on the active/non-football injury list, per @​AdamSchefter Bell is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in November while at Louisville.

Dolphins have placed wide receiver Chris Bell on the active/non-football injury list. [Retweeted](

Another thing here that has me more bearish than most on the Chargers. Both ADP (1 of 4 teams with 7 players in top 15 rds, only team with top 24 overall pick RB and another inside top 12 rounds) and the public sentiment are treating the Chargers like they’re a top ~5 projecting offense. In terms of implied PPG based off preseason lines, the Chargers are expected to score just the 14th most PPG this year. Obviously more pieces to the puzzle than points per game, but the offensive strength is...

Another thing here that has me more bearish than most on the Chargers. Both ADP (1 of 4 teams with 7 players in top 15 rds, only team with top 24 overall pick RB and another inside top 12 rounds) and the public sentiment are treating the Chargers like they’re a top ~5 projecting offense. In terms of implied PPG based off preseason lines, the Chargers are expected to score just the 14th most PPG this year. Obviously more pieces to the puzzle than points per game, but the offensive strength is...

Another thing here that has me more bearish than most on the Chargers. Both ADP (1 of 4 teams with 7 players in top 15 rds, only team with top 24 overall pick RB and another inside top 12 rounds) and the public sentiment are treating the Chargers like they’re a top ~5 projecting offense. In terms of implied PPG based off preseason lines, the Chargers are expected to score just the 14th most PPG this year. Obviously more pieces to the puzzle than points per game, but the offensive strength is...

As expected, Chris Bell is not ready for action yet Fine I said training camp PUP

Chris Bell (knee) officially placed on active/NFI list.

If he plays a full season in 2026 - where will Jayden Daniels rank among fantasy QBs?

During his time with the Steelers, Austin was a better asset in best ball formats than other fantasy formats; he's a big-play threat with four top-15 weeks across three seasons but only 8 total TDs in that span. Now with the Giants, he's buried in a crowded receiver room behind Malik Nabers, with competition from Darius Slayton, Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and recently signed Odell Beckham. The source states there's no single player outside of Nabers to feel comfortable drafting and that Austin is not worth a roster spot heading into 2026.

Seventh-round pick who appeared in all 17 games as a rookie but tallied only 44 rushing attempts, averaged 3.4 yards per carry, and scored his lone TD in Week 17, though he did haul in 25 receptions on 35 targets. The Chiefs have since signed Kenneth Walker (Super Bowl Champion & MVP) and spent a fifth-round pick on Emmett Johnson, one of the top receiving RBs in the class, plus signed Emari Demercado as depth. This leaves little room for Smith to rise the depth chart and compete for a meaningful role. The source says Smith is droppable unless still on a taxi squad with space to spare.

Despite remaining durable and productive across three teams over four seasons, Singletary has shown a steady decline in efficiency: topped 5.0 yards per carry as a rookie in 2019, ran four straight years at 4.0+ yards per carry, and posted consecutive seasons in the high 3s. Now in Year 3 with the Giants, he's likely No. 3 on the depth chart behind Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy. While he's performed well when given larger roles due to injury, too many things must break his way to become fantasy relevant this season. The source recommends dropping him to waivers if better options are available.

Signed by the Seahawks after filling in admirably for the Packers over several seasons, but early reports indicate George Holani is getting most first-team reps while newly drafted Jadarian Price works into the rotation, leaving Wilson with third-string work. Over his last two seasons with Green Bay, Wilson posted 225 rushing attempts, 998 rushing yards, 8 total TDs, and appeared in 34 of 34 games. The source recommends holding Wilson as a secondary option given his demonstrated ability to contribute over several years, pending offseason developments.

Seventh-round pick out of Texas who started the final three games of 2025 with 190 passing yards per game, 3 total passing TDs, 3 INTs, and 6 sacks. However, the Dolphins signed Malik Willis to a three-year, $67 million contract, leaving Ewers as nothing more than a speculative backup option in deep superflex formats. Unlike Willis, Ewers lacks a rushing floor to boost his weekly fantasy floor, making him not worth a roster spot in superflex dynasty leagues.

Bhayshul Tuten earned the Jags’ trust as a goal-line and short-yardage option last year it would be a mistake to automatically assume that Chris Rodriguez dominates those touches [Retweeted](

Bhayshul Tuten earned the Jags’ trust as a goal-line and short-yardage option last year it would be a mistake to automatically assume that Chris Rodriguez dominates those touches [Retweeted](

.@​AdamSchefter on the Giants: "The health of this team — Cam [Skattebo], Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers — if those guys stay healthy and play the majority of the season, they're gonna be a playoff team. I think they can go to the playoffs... I really do." (via @​PatMcAfeeShow)

The Cardinals & Jacoby Brissett are STILL in contract negations for a pay raise. What should Brissett be paid for 2026? (He is currently slated to make $4.8M base)

John Harbaugh on Cam Skattebo's backflip attempt: "Dude, at least stick it, you know what I mean? Land the thing if you're gonna do it." (@​BleavNetwork)

Browns RB Quinshon Judkins on entering year 2: “I never doubted my ability... I’m putting in the work every single day, I know exactly what I’m doing to get better. I’m being intentional about every single drill and every single movement.”

Not exactly the same but part of me wonders if we’re propping up Jonathon Brooks too much (I’m still investing) He could be anything! He could even be as good as Rachaad White or Aaron Jones (in a similar situation) Still believe in the talent but one I look in the mirror for

Not exactly the same but part of me wonders if we’re propping up Jonathon Brooks too much (I’m still investing) He could be anything! He could even be as good as Rachaad White or Aaron Jones (in a similar situation) Still believe in the talent but one I look in the mirror for

Not exactly the same but part of me wonders if we’re propping up Jonathon Brooks too much (I’m still investing) He could be anything! He could even be as good as Rachaad White or Aaron Jones (in a similar situation) Still believe in the talent but one I look in the mirror for

Can TreVeyon Henderson take on a bigger role in the Patriots offense? Former NFL OC @​ScottTurner gives his thoughts on the Patriots RB room [Retweeted](

A day to before the Cardinals report, and there is not yet a resolution to Jacoby Brissett’s contract situation. AZ and Brissett (who is his own agent) have been actively negotiating for the last several months and agree he’s due a raise. No consensus yet on the number. [Retweeted](

One of the biggest things to watch and follow along with me for will be how Jonathon Brooks looks at Training Camp He was NOT running full speed at OTAs Panthers insiders say joint practices will help the team determine how involved he is Team is putting a lot of faith in him

Rap: Kyler Murray, JJ McCarthy QB battle will go "right up to the start of the season."

Rap: Kyler Murray, JJ McCarthy QB battle will go "right up to the start of the season."

I'm a big-time arguer. So this was one of the most fun articles for me to read of the entire offseason so far. @​SideHustleFF did an incredible job sifting through the De'Von Achane, Jonathon Brooks, and Bears pass-catcher debates that could define the 2026 season. Read it!

I'm a big-time arguer. So this was one of the most fun articles for me to read of the entire offseason so far. @​SideHustleFF did an incredible job sifting through the De'Von Achane, Jonathon Brooks, and Bears pass-catcher debates that could define the 2026 season. Read it!

NEW Reception Perception The Show 🏈 -Brock Bower's this season's JSN? -How do Drake Maye's and AJ Brown's charts mesh? -Cam Skattebo and Woody Marks RB profiles Listen and subscribe ⤵️ <https://linktr.ee/ReceptionPerception> [Retweeted](

NEW Reception Perception The Show 🏈 -Brock Bower's this season's JSN? -How do Drake Maye's and AJ Brown's charts mesh? -Cam Skattebo and Woody Marks RB profiles Listen and subscribe ⤵️ <https://linktr.ee/ReceptionPerception> [Retweeted](

NEW Reception Perception The Show 🏈 -Brock Bower's this season's JSN? -How do Drake Maye's and AJ Brown's charts mesh? -Cam Skattebo and Woody Marks RB profiles Listen and subscribe ⤵️ <https://linktr.ee/ReceptionPerception> [Retweeted](

NEW Reception Perception The Show 🏈 -Brock Bower's this season's JSN? -How do Drake Maye's and AJ Brown's charts mesh? -Cam Skattebo and Woody Marks RB profiles Listen and subscribe ⤵️ <https://linktr.ee/ReceptionPerception> [Retweeted](

NEW Reception Perception The Show 🏈 -Brock Bower's this season's JSN? -How do Drake Maye's and AJ Brown's charts mesh? -Cam Skattebo and Woody Marks RB profiles Listen and subscribe ⤵️ <https://linktr.ee/ReceptionPerception> [Retweeted](

Last week @​MattHarmon_BYB also talked about Bryce Young and the efficiency he brings as a passer when throwing out of empty formations #KeepPounding [Retweeted](

Favorites in the Stefon Diggs "sweepstakes" as camp approaches: 1. Commanders -- Current WR2 is Treylon Burks, slot is (hopefully) Antonio Williams 2. Chiefs -- Need more weapons for Patrick Mahomes, behind short-area Rashee Rice and vertical Xavier Worthy 3. Rams -- Current WR3 in Super Bowl window is Jordan Whittington/Konata Mumpfield 4. Ravens -- Earth's preeminent collector of former superstar WRs who are some degree of withered

Favorites in the Stefon Diggs "sweepstakes" as camp approaches: 1. Commanders -- Current WR2 is Treylon Burks, slot is (hopefully) Antonio Williams 2. Chiefs -- Need more weapons for Patrick Mahomes, behind short-area Rashee Rice and vertical Xavier Worthy 3. Rams -- Current WR3 in Super Bowl window is Jordan Whittington/Konata Mumpfield 4. Ravens -- Earth's preeminent collector of former superstar WRs who are some degree of withered

Favorites in the Stefon Diggs "sweepstakes" as camp approaches: 1. Commanders -- Current WR2 is Treylon Burks, slot is (hopefully) Antonio Williams 2. Chiefs -- Need more weapons for Patrick Mahomes, behind short-area Rashee Rice and vertical Xavier Worthy 3. Rams -- Current WR3 in Super Bowl window is Jordan Whittington/Konata Mumpfield 4. Ravens -- Earth's preeminent collector of former superstar WRs who are some degree of withered

In 2026, I'm doubling down on my single worst stance of the 2025 season: Fading Jonathan Taylor Link in replies for the article on why I'm doing so, and offering up an RB going after him that I think is just the better version of what you want JT to be⬇️

Early in the offseason (March 14th), I wrote about why I though Tuten was such a high-upside pick and why the Rodriguez addition should NOT stop you from being in at a round 5 price. Some of the specific ADP talking points might be slightly dated now, but the larger points about the types of RBs we want to be targeting in fantasy football are evergreen (ie: Projected-lead RBs in good offenses that are explosive with pass-catching upside, aka Tuten). I made some updates to that article today o...

Breece Hall's current Sleeper ADP ➜ 32.3 Are you IN or OUT? 🤔

What will Emeka Egbuka's role be this season? Does Bhayshul Tuten have a leg up on Chris Rodriguez? That + more in today's Tight Ten 👇

What will Emeka Egbuka's role be this season? Does Bhayshul Tuten have a leg up on Chris Rodriguez? That + more in today's Tight Ten 👇

What will Emeka Egbuka's role be this season? Does Bhayshul Tuten have a leg up on Chris Rodriguez? That + more in today's Tight Ten 👇

.@​TheAthletic lists players with the most on the line in 2026: ARI - Darius Robinson ATL - Michael Penix Jr BAL - Roquan Smith BUF - Keon Coleman CAR - Xavier Legette CHI - Rome Odunze CIN - Myles Murphy CLE - Shedeur Sanders DAL - DeMarvion Overshown DEN - Riley Moss DET - Kerby Joseph GB - Jordan Morgan HOU - CJ Stroud IND - Daniel Jones JAX - Brian Thomas Jr. KC - Rashee Rice LV - Kirk Cousins LAC - Khalil Mack LAR - Puka Nacua MIA - Malik Willis MIN - Kyler Murray NE - AJ Brown NO - Chri...

.@​TheAthletic lists players with the most on the line in 2026: ARI - Darius Robinson ATL - Michael Penix Jr BAL - Roquan Smith BUF - Keon Coleman CAR - Xavier Legette CHI - Rome Odunze CIN - Myles Murphy CLE - Shedeur Sanders DAL - DeMarvion Overshown DEN - Riley Moss DET - Kerby Joseph GB - Jordan Morgan HOU - CJ Stroud IND - Daniel Jones JAX - Brian Thomas Jr. KC - Rashee Rice LV - Kirk Cousins LAC - Khalil Mack LAR - Puka Nacua MIA - Malik Willis MIN - Kyler Murray NE - AJ Brown NO - Chri...

.@​TheAthletic lists players with the most on the line in 2026: ARI - Darius Robinson ATL - Michael Penix Jr BAL - Roquan Smith BUF - Keon Coleman CAR - Xavier Legette CHI - Rome Odunze CIN - Myles Murphy CLE - Shedeur Sanders DAL - DeMarvion Overshown DEN - Riley Moss DET - Kerby Joseph GB - Jordan Morgan HOU - CJ Stroud IND - Daniel Jones JAX - Brian Thomas Jr. KC - Rashee Rice LV - Kirk Cousins LAC - Khalil Mack LAR - Puka Nacua MIA - Malik Willis MIN - Kyler Murray NE - AJ Brown NO - Chri...

.@​TheAthletic lists players with the most on the line in 2026: ARI - Darius Robinson ATL - Michael Penix Jr BAL - Roquan Smith BUF - Keon Coleman CAR - Xavier Legette CHI - Rome Odunze CIN - Myles Murphy CLE - Shedeur Sanders DAL - DeMarvion Overshown DEN - Riley Moss DET - Kerby Joseph GB - Jordan Morgan HOU - CJ Stroud IND - Daniel Jones JAX - Brian Thomas Jr. KC - Rashee Rice LV - Kirk Cousins LAC - Khalil Mack LAR - Puka Nacua MIA - Malik Willis MIN - Kyler Murray NE - AJ Brown NO - Chri...

.@​TheAthletic lists players with the most on the line in 2026: ARI - Darius Robinson ATL - Michael Penix Jr BAL - Roquan Smith BUF - Keon Coleman CAR - Xavier Legette CHI - Rome Odunze CIN - Myles Murphy CLE - Shedeur Sanders DAL - DeMarvion Overshown DEN - Riley Moss DET - Kerby Joseph GB - Jordan Morgan HOU - CJ Stroud IND - Daniel Jones JAX - Brian Thomas Jr. KC - Rashee Rice LV - Kirk Cousins LAC - Khalil Mack LAR - Puka Nacua MIA - Malik Willis MIN - Kyler Murray NE - AJ Brown NO - Chri...

.@​TheAthletic lists players with the most on the line in 2026: ARI - Darius Robinson ATL - Michael Penix Jr BAL - Roquan Smith BUF - Keon Coleman CAR - Xavier Legette CHI - Rome Odunze CIN - Myles Murphy CLE - Shedeur Sanders DAL - DeMarvion Overshown DEN - Riley Moss DET - Kerby Joseph GB - Jordan Morgan HOU - CJ Stroud IND - Daniel Jones JAX - Brian Thomas Jr. KC - Rashee Rice LV - Kirk Cousins LAC - Khalil Mack LAR - Puka Nacua MIA - Malik Willis MIN - Kyler Murray NE - AJ Brown NO - Chri...

.@​TheAthletic lists players with the most on the line in 2026: ARI - Darius Robinson ATL - Michael Penix Jr BAL - Roquan Smith BUF - Keon Coleman CAR - Xavier Legette CHI - Rome Odunze CIN - Myles Murphy CLE - Shedeur Sanders DAL - DeMarvion Overshown DEN - Riley Moss DET - Kerby Joseph GB - Jordan Morgan HOU - CJ Stroud IND - Daniel Jones JAX - Brian Thomas Jr. KC - Rashee Rice LV - Kirk Cousins LAC - Khalil Mack LAR - Puka Nacua MIA - Malik Willis MIN - Kyler Murray NE - AJ Brown NO - Chri...

Bhayshul Tuten earned the Jags’ trust as a goal-line and short-yardage option last year it would be a mistake to automatically assume that Chris Rodriguez dominates those touches

Bhayshul Tuten earned the Jags’ trust as a goal-line and short-yardage option last year it would be a mistake to automatically assume that Chris Rodriguez dominates those touches

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

I feel like this is a really good time to make some low-cost, speculative Dynasty Buys It's right before training camp, and a lot of the discussion and focus has been on bigger-name starters Here are 10 players I am looking to buy or keep my eye on early in this season (can also be viewed as cheap "add-on" players in bigger trades) 1. Tank Bigsby 2. Dalton Kincaid 3. Gunnar Helm 4. Terrance Ferguson 5. Dylan Sampson 6. Tory Horton 7. Keaton Mitchell 8. Dontayvion Wicks 9. Adonai Mitchell 10....

Sam LaPorta is highlighted as a middle-round target that strengthens roster construction; the source demonstrates that pairing an early elite WR like Ja'Marr Chase with LaPorta in the middle rounds allows teams to close the gap in overall roster strength while maintaining flexibility at other positions.

Ja'Marr Chase is positioned as a 1.03 anchor pick with 15.7 PPG utilization and 261.0 projected points; the source builds a championship roster strategy around him as the foundational WR, demonstrating that securing elite WR talent early enables flexibility to pivot to other positions in subsequent rounds rather than forcing positional scarcity.

LaPorta is selected early in the middle rounds (implied to be around round 5-6) in an alternative 1.03 build to address the TE position. The source notes that selecting LaPorta early helps buttress the drop in WR output from the alternative build and allows the roster to pull ahead in other areas.

Herbert carries an ADP of 123.1 and projects for 299.1 PPR points in 2026. The source highlights him as a QB option available later in the draft, though his projection is similar to Jaxson Dart's (299.4), making him a better value due to his later ADP.

Lawrence carries an ADP of 116.7 and projects for 304.3 PPR points in 2026, the highest among the QB comparison group. The source highlights him as a QB option with a higher ceiling than Jaxson Dart (299.4 points) despite falling much later in the draft, making him a strong value play.

Purdy carries an ADP of 102.1 and projects for 301.5 PPR points in 2026. The source highlights him as a QB option with a higher ceiling than Jaxson Dart (299.4 points) despite falling much later in the draft, making him a better value play.

Prescott carries an ADP of 98.0 and projects for 303.4 PPR points in 2026. The source highlights him as a QB option with a higher ceiling than Jaxson Dart (299.4 points) despite falling much later in the draft, making him a better value play.

Dart carries an ADP of 73.7 in 2026 and projects for 299.4 PPR points. The source argues there is no rush to draft Dart in the seventh round, as at least three other QBs (Prescott, Purdy, Lawrence) project for higher point totals (303.4, 301.5, 304.3) and can be acquired later, allowing for better allocation of draft capital to other positions.

Price is projected for the 25th-most touches of any RB in 2026. The source considers him as an option to fill the RB2 spot in a sample 1.03 build but ultimately opts for a fourth WR instead to secure the FLEX position.

Evans is selected in the fifth round of a sample 1.03 build as part of a strong WR core. The source notes that by the seventh round, the roster had so much promise with Evans and other WRs that no additional WR starts would be needed beyond bye weeks.

Waddle is selected in the fourth round of a sample 1.03 build as part of a strong WR core. The source uses him as one of several high-end WR options available in the early-to-mid rounds when building around Ja'Marr Chase.

Hall is selected in the third round of an alternative 1.03 build but is presented as a weaker option than Derrick Henry due to the Jets' offensive output. The source notes that the Jets scored 799.8 PPR points in 2025, 30 points fewer than the team with Henry (828.8), indicating Hall operates in a less productive offense.

Brown is projected to take the WR1 spot in New England in 2026, but the source notes that the Patriots added other pass catchers over the offseason or are developing them from last year, which may limit his target share relative to other top WRs. The source uses him as a second-round WR option in an alternative build from the 1.03.

Collins is described as part of a high-end or ascending offense with an unquestioned role. The source selects him in the third round of a sample 1.03 build, positioning him as a top option at WR in the early rounds.

Henry is described as part of a high-end or ascending offense with an unquestioned role. The source selects him in the second round of a sample 1.03 build, positioning him as a top option at RB in the early rounds.

Brown is projected for 283 touches, 255.7 PPR points, and carries an ADP of 27.4 in 2026. The source uses him as a second-round RB comparison to Josh Jacobs when evaluating the drop-off from top-two RBs, showing that second-round RB options still carry significant touch volume.

Jacobs is projected for 298 touches, 237.0 PPR points, and carries an ADP of 26.8 in 2026. The source uses him as a second-round RB comparison point when evaluating the drop-off from top-two RBs (Gibbs and Robinson) to second-round options, noting the opportunity cost of waiting on RBs.

Nacua projects for more total PPR points than Ja'Marr Chase in 2026, but the source's Draft Assistant ranks Chase ahead due to superior target share (25.9% vs. implied lower share), red-zone opportunity (20.3% target share in red zone vs. Chase's 27.6%), and scheme fit. Nacua operates in a Rams offense with multiple receivers and TEs in scoring areas, limiting his ceiling relative to Chase.

Robinson is projected for 357 touches in 2026, a volume that significantly exceeds the target volume of top-two WR options. The source indicates that if Robinson falls to 1.02 or beyond, the touch projection justifies taking him as a top-two pick.

Gibbs is projected for 344 touches in 2026, a volume that dwarfs the target volume of top-two WR options in consideration at 1.01. The source notes that missing out on Gibbs at 1.01 is not a given, but if available, the touch projection justifies taking him as a top-two pick.

Chase is ranked as the WR1 for 2026 despite Puka Nacua projecting for more total points; the source credits Chase's 25.9% target share (4th among WRs with 75%+ route rate, 2021-2025), 5.8 YAC per reception (1st), and 2.26 YPRR (6th). In red-zone situations since 2023, Chase commands 27.6% target share versus Nacua's 20.3%, and benefits from Cincinnati's 64.1% pass rate and 60.5% red-zone pass rate (vs. LA's 56.8% and 52.1%). Chase has 13 games with 25+ PPR points versus Nacua's 9, cementing his edge as the first-round WR despite similar total projections.

Mason Rudolph is a high-floor backup to Aaron Rodgers but is a candidate to be moved in the preseason should the Steelers choose to keep their young backups to develop behind Rodgers instead.

Drew Allar comes in as a rookie with third-round draft capital behind Aaron Rodgers. Whichever quarterback wins the backup job in preseason is a good dart throw in deeper leagues. Allar is worth rostering in Dynasty formats as a potential Steeler starter in 2027.

Will Howard is the front-runner to be the primary backup to Aaron Rodgers while rookie Drew Allar comes in with third-round draft capital. Whichever quarterback wins the backup job in preseason is a good dart throw in deeper leagues. Howard and Allar are worth rostering in Dynasty formats as potential Steeler starters in 2027.

Heidenreich, this year's seventh-round rookie, has versatility especially as a pass-catcher. He is not in line for a fantasy-relevant role but is worth mentioning as a handcuff in case one of Warren or Dowdle suffers an injury.

Johnson, last year's third-round rookie, disappointed with 28 carries for 69 yards last season and remains buried in the depth chart behind the Warren-Dowdle tandem. He is not in line for a fantasy-relevant role but is worth mentioning as a handcuff in case one of Warren or Dowdle suffers an injury.

Dowdle reunites with Mike McCarthy, coming off back-to-back seasons of over 230 carries and 1,000 yards with the Cowboys and Panthers. Both Dowdle and Warren are used to being part of running back duos and neither are likely to dominate backfield touches. Dowdle profiles better as the downhill runner while Warren looks to be more of the receiver out of the backfield. Dowdle's familiarity in McCarthy's system ensures he will be the 1B to Warren's 1A, projecting in the RB3 range.

Warren was finally freed from behind Najee Harris and saw a career-high 251 touches last season. He ranked top-20 among backs with at least 100 rushes in success rate and explosive rate, totaling 211 carries for 958 yards and 40 receptions for 333 yards. He now gets a new backfield running mate in former Cowboy Rico Dowdle. Warren looks to be more of the receiver out of the backfield while Dowdle profiles better as the downhill runner. Warren has the edge given his tenure in Pittsburgh and familiarity with Rodgers. He is a borderline RB2 heading into the season.

Washington saw career-highs across the board last season. The fourth-year tight end out of Georgia broke his arm in Week 17 but the Steelers rewarded him with a four-year extension in the offseason. Their commitment indicates Washington will continue to be on the field as a mauling blocker and late-read option in the flats. He is not a strong fantasy candidate but is a deep league dart throw.

Freiermuth caught 41-of-54 targets for 486 yards and four touchdowns last season. Arthur Smith's offense threw in much more target competition at the tight end spot; Freiermuth averaged a career-high 11.9 yards per reception but career-low 3.2 targets per game. He returns as the Steelers' top tight end and is worth low-end fantasy TE2 consideration.

Wilson has had little impact over his first two seasons in the NFL but gets another shot in McCarthy's new offense that will be more wide receiver-friendly than the Arthur Smith system. His speed gives him the ability to be a vertical threat. Wilson will likely need an injury to Metcalf or Pittman to see fantasy-relevant opportunity and should only be rostered in such a scenario.

Bernard was selected in the second round of the 2026 draft. With good size and yards-after-catch ability, he will get some looks as the No. 3 wideout in McCarthy's more wide receiver-friendly offense compared to last season's Arthur Smith system. Bernard is a dart throw in deeper leagues and should be rostered in Dynasty formats.

Pittman caught 80-of-111 targets for 784 yards and a career-high seven touchdowns last season with Indianapolis. He lived in the intermediate area, averaging under 10 yards per reception for the second time in his career. Traded to Pittsburgh in a salary-shedding move, Pittman is in line for more versatile usage as another veteran for Rodgers to connect with. However, Rodgers' ball distribution last season indicated Pittman will have limited opportunity for explosive plays. He profiles best as a possession receiver with some red zone usage, projecting as a fantasy WR4.

Metcalf caught 59-of-99 targets for a career-low 850 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season. His 37.5-percent contested catch rate was low for a player with his size, speed, and deep target profile, though Rodgers' dwindling arm strength played a part in lack of deep ball success. Metcalf will move from Arthur Smith's offense to McCarthy's more promising passing-game system, but optimism is balanced by added target competition and Rodgers' low depth of targets. Metcalf projects as a modest fantasy WR3 for 2026.

Mike McCarthy reunites with Rodgers in Pittsburgh after a one-year absence. The former Packers and Cowboys head coach will install his offense to boost Rodgers. Rodgers and McCarthy have won a Super Bowl together and strung together several winning seasons in Green Bay, providing a more promising passing-game volume system than the Arthur Smith offense Rodgers ran last season.

The 42-year-old Rodgers is coming off a 2025 season averaging 6.7 yards per attempt (No. 29 among QBs with 250+ plays), leading an offense reliant on shallow passing. He threw multiple touchdowns in just six games, failed to surpass 300 passing yards in any game, and failed to cross 200 yards in five games. However, he limited turnovers with seven interceptions and a 5.4-percent sack rate. Rodgers is risk-averse at this stage of his career, lowering his ceiling but raising his floor; he can still sit in the pocket and make smart decisions, making him a low-end fantasy QB2.

Also Jones/Mason not under contract next year, lots of incentive for Minnesota to see what they have in Claiborne [Quoted](

More on the short-yardage runs for Tuten vs. Rodriguez: Among 52 RBs with min. 20 short-yardage attempts (3 or less yds to go) per @​FantasyPtsData, Tuten was: + 7th in success rate (76.2%) + 2nd in stuffed run rate (23.8%) + 1st in % of runs converted into TD or 1D (90.5%) This was despite being left with very little room to run on these attempts, DEAD LAST in yards before contact/attempt on short-yardage runs (0.29). For reference, C-Rod was: + 30th in success rate (65.4%) + 19th in stuffed...

Three of fantasy football's consensus top-10 tight ends had some pretty non-ideal surgeries this offseason: -Tucker Kraft (ACL + meniscus trim/minor LCL) -Sam LaPorta (herniated disc/back) -George Kittle (Achilles)

Three of fantasy football's consensus top-10 tight ends had some pretty non-ideal surgeries this offseason: -Tucker Kraft (ACL + meniscus trim/minor LCL) -Sam LaPorta (herniated disc/back) -George Kittle (Achilles)

Three of fantasy football's consensus top-10 tight ends had some pretty non-ideal surgeries this offseason: -Tucker Kraft (ACL + meniscus trim/minor LCL) -Sam LaPorta (herniated disc/back) -George Kittle (Achilles)

YPC when *not* hit behind the LOS since '22: 1. De'Von Achane (8.9) 2. Jahmyr Gibbs (8.2) 3. Derrick Henry (7.9) 4. Jordan Mason (ok ok ok) 5. Kenneth Walker (7.6) -- KC RBs: Pacheco (46th), Hunt (51st/51st)

YPC when *not* hit behind the LOS since '22: 1. De'Von Achane (8.9) 2. Jahmyr Gibbs (8.2) 3. Derrick Henry (7.9) 4. Jordan Mason (ok ok ok) 5. Kenneth Walker (7.6) -- KC RBs: Pacheco (46th), Hunt (51st/51st)

YPC when *not* hit behind the LOS since '22: 1. De'Von Achane (8.9) 2. Jahmyr Gibbs (8.2) 3. Derrick Henry (7.9) 4. Jordan Mason (ok ok ok) 5. Kenneth Walker (7.6) -- KC RBs: Pacheco (46th), Hunt (51st/51st)

Tight Ten: Emeka "X"-buka, Bhayshul Bias, & Power Slot Tetairoa McMillan | July 21 <https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1vJpPPAYbDdJE>

Size is NOT the only determinant of goal line work, yet many like to operate as though this is just automatically the case (for Tuten v. Rodriguez discussions). Bhayshul Tuten probably showed the most as a short-yardage runner in year 1 compared to any other aspect of his game, yet the anti-Tuten crowd declares C-Rod the definitive goal line back simply because he’s a bit bigger. Tuten is not necessarily small either, as 5’9” 210 lbs is quite dense. And it should not go overlooked how Rodrigu...

I did build a situation-adjusted (includes box count) efficiency metric for RBs, but it’s not fully ready to share Rhamondre Stevenson scores very well

Brock Bowers

Yes, the Patriots backfield faced the 3rd-highest percentage of stacked boxes in the league last season at 56.1% (per @​FantasyPtsData) Still, both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson ranked top-10 in Fantasy Points per Touch - Stevenson: 1.12 (3rd-highest) - Henderson: 0.96 (10th-highest) I feel like the Patriots offense has been fairly undervalued all offseason because of how poor they performed in the playoffs and the fact that their strength of schedule being more difficult in 2026...

Yes, the Patriots backfield faced the 3rd-highest percentage of stacked boxes in the league last season at 56.1% (per @​FantasyPtsData) Still, both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson ranked top-10 in Fantasy Points per Touch - Stevenson: 1.12 (3rd-highest) - Henderson: 0.96 (10th-highest) I feel like the Patriots offense has been fairly undervalued all offseason because of how poor they performed in the playoffs and the fact that their strength of schedule being more difficult in 2026...

Yes, the Patriots backfield faced the 3rd-highest percentage of stacked boxes in the league last season at 56.1% (per @​FantasyPtsData) Still, both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson ranked top-10 in Fantasy Points per Touch - Stevenson: 1.12 (3rd-highest) - Henderson: 0.96 (10th-highest) I feel like the Patriots offense has been fairly undervalued all offseason because of how poor they performed in the playoffs and the fact that their strength of schedule being more difficult in 2026...

MarShawn Lloyd appears to have found answers to the injuries that have plagued him, renewing the Packers' hopes for their supremely talented running back. "Countdown to Camp" continues with a look at Lloyd & the Packers' backfield.

“Demond Claiborne, RB: Executives, coaches and teammates quietly raved about his movement skills this spring. If he can master the system, pass protection rules and ball security, buckle your seatbelts.”

CJ Stroud on Nico Collins: “When I first got here I told him it’s my job to make you a superstar. And I think he’s up to that level now. Teams are starting to double him and rotate to him, and give him that superstar treatment.”

CJ Stroud on Nico Collins: “When I first got here I told him it’s my job to make you a superstar. And I think he’s up to that level now. Teams are starting to double him and rotate to him, and give him that superstar treatment.”

In 2026, I'm doubling down on my single worst stance of the 2025 season: Fading Jonathan Taylor Link in replies for the article on why I'm doing so, and offering up an RB going after him that I think is just the better version of what you want JT to be⬇️

I'm taking a look at the Buccaneers OL, and it's led me to my first pro Bucky Irving tweet of maybe the entire offseason (kind of) The two best players on the OL are Tristan Wirfs (LT) and Luke Goedeke (RT), who both play on the outside New OC, Zac Robinson, ran outside zone rushing schemes at the highest rate in the league last season, by a mile, at 55.8% (per @​FantasyPtsData) It's a small sample size for both RBs (34 and 38 attempts), but here is how Irving and Gainwell performed in that s...

I'm taking a look at the Buccaneers OL, and it's led me to my first pro Bucky Irving tweet of maybe the entire offseason (kind of) The two best players on the OL are Tristan Wirfs (LT) and Luke Goedeke (RT), who both play on the outside New OC, Zac Robinson, ran outside zone rushing schemes at the highest rate in the league last season, by a mile, at 55.8% (per @​FantasyPtsData) It's a small sample size for both RBs (34 and 38 attempts), but here is how Irving and Gainwell performed in that s...

I've seen people actually draft Steelers R7 rookie Eli Heidenreich. (take in image is via The Athletic) A reminder from the @​2Hats1Mike Manifesto -- avoiding 0s in best ball is more important than stacking or anything else. <https://establishtherun.com/best-ball-mania-manifesto-a-guide-to-winning-big-on-underdog-fantasy/>

.@​PFF ranks the 4 best draft classes from the 2023 NFL Draft: 1 - Detroit Lions (Gibbs, Campbell, LaPorta, Branch) 2 - Los Angeles Rams (Nacua, Young, Turner, Avila) 3 - Seattle Seahawks (JSN, Witherspoon, Hall, Charbonnet) 4 - Houston Texans (Stroud, Anderson Jr, Dell)

Nico Collins lands at No. 58 on the NFL Top 100 rankings!

Nico Collins at 58 but Philip Rivers didn't even make the list? Philip Rivers has 8 Pro Bowls and was AFC Player of the Month 4 times.

Buccaneers WR. Thread includes two high-scoring comments ('Kenny Golladay comeback baybay!' +32; 'I'm drafting Kenny g everywhere I can' +23) unrelated to Irving news, suggesting community optimism about his 2026 outlook. No substantive analysis provided in thread.

Former Buccaneers RB, signed 1-year $2M deal with Commanders. 2025: led Bucs in carries inside 5-yard line (8), took significant pass-work from Irving. Community notes Bucs let him walk cheaply and upgraded his role by signing Gainwell to 2-year $12M, suggesting either White wanted to lead a backfield elsewhere or Bucs wanted to upgrade the backup role. Comments: 'White is a good receiver and blocker, solid short yardage guy, but overall very bad rusher'; 'White was unplayable when Bucky was in'; 'maybe White really wanted the chance to lead a backfield.'

Buccaneers RB, 5'10" 205 lbs. 2025: 9 goal-line carries (most on team), 8 carries inside 5-yard line. Bucs originally did not tender him pre-deadline but reversed course at 3:50 PM (deadline 4 PM), tendering him right before cutoff. Community notes this unusual reversal as signal of uncertainty about his role. Some see him as short-yardage vulture; others note he had 'mediocre season' but 'shown juice in past.' Comments: 'Tucker is still there lurking'; 'they knew what he was dealing with and didn't want to risk it in short yard situations'; 'Occam's Razor points towards both guys being used.'

Signed 2-year $12M deal (vs. Rachaad White's 1-year $2M with Commanders). 2025: 73 targets, 537 rushing yards, 5 TDs in career-high role. Community debate: some see him as pass-down/receiving back replacing White; others skeptical he'll vulture significant carries from Irving. Gainwell career: 537 rushing yards and 5 TDs best season; prior to 2025 never exceeded 364 yards. Comments note he's year-6 RB on third team with modest career resume; one argues 'Gainwell is a carry backup who benefitted by being on team with no WRs.' Consensus: value play if Irving gets injured or loses role, but not preferred over Irving as starter.

Shoulder surgery post-2025 season; expects ready for training camp start and Week 1 vs. Bengals, avoiding PUP list. Article notes 'things have moved in the right direction' since May comments about summer/fall availability. Community split: optimists cite elite rookie metrics (1,150 yards, 8 TDs, 5.4 YPC in 2024) and note 2025 was injury-plagued (10 games, 173 carries, 588 yards, 1 TD); skeptics cite zero goal-line carries last year (Tucker 9, White 8, Baker 1) and worry about durability. Some reference unspecified 'mental health situation' speculation. Consensus: viable RB3/flex if ADP falls to 4th+ round; avoid at 2nd-3rd round cost.

On the impact of AJ Brown: 2nd or 3rd time in a week Patriots beat (ESPN + Athletic) wrote about the impact AJ Brown will have on opposing defenses showing more of a 2-high look Impact on Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson could be big (moving a safety out of the box)

Murray represents a substantial quarterback upgrade for T.J. Hockenson compared to J.J. McCarthy's awful play in Minnesota. Murray will be able to keep the ball moving better, positioning Hockenson for a bounce-back season.

McCarthy's awful quarterback play in 2025 resulted in the Vikings ranking 28th in offensive EPA per game and scoring the seventh-fewest points per game, directly impacting the production of pass-catchers like T.J. Hockenson, who finished as TE27 with a career-low 8.6 yards per game.

Hockenson was TE6 in ADP last season but now languishes as TE23 after a lackluster year in Minnesota. He finished as TE27, averaging 7.5 points per game with a career-low 8.6 yards per game, largely attributable to awful quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy; the Vikings ranked 28th in offensive EPA per game and scored the seventh-fewest points per game. Hockenson was coming off an ACL injury but people still drafted him highly. Now he gets a substantial quarterback upgrade in Kyler Murray, who will keep the ball moving better, yet nobody is interested in him. At 29 years old, Hockenson is a good bet to bounce back if you believe in the coaching ability of Kevin O'Connell.

The Commanders seemingly expected Aiyuk to join their receiving corps, but that now seems far less likely, leaving Terry McLaurin as the undeniable No. 1 WR with minimal competition.

Williams was drafted in the third round by the Commanders as one of the few receiving corps additions, alongside Chig Okonkwo, with the team seemingly expecting Brandon Aiyuk to join but that now appears far less likely.

Okonkwo is one of the few receiving options the Commanders added alongside third-rounder Antonio Williams, with the team seemingly expecting Brandon Aiyuk to join but that now appears far less likely. This limited receiving corps addition suggests Terry McLaurin will remain the undeniable No. 1 WR.

Daniels was injured for much of 2025, contributing to Terry McLaurin's disappointing WR37 finish. The last time McLaurin and Daniels were both healthy in 2024, McLaurin finished as WR7 in PPR formats with 82 receptions, 1,096 yards, and 13 touchdowns, suggesting significant upside if Daniels remains healthy in 2026.

McLaurin finished as WR37 last year and will be hard-pressed not to improve in 2026. Much of last year's struggles stemmed from injuries to both him and Jayden Daniels; his offseason contract standoff caused him to miss practice time, a pattern that warrants caution. However, the last time McLaurin and Daniels were healthy in 2024, McLaurin had 82 receptions for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns, finishing as WR7 in PPR formats. Outside of Chig Okonkwo and third-rounder Antonio Williams, the Commanders added little to their receiving corps, seemingly expecting Brandon Aiyuk to join but that now seems far less likely. McLaurin should head into the season as the undeniable No. 1 WR on a team with a fresh offense thanks to new coordinator David Blough.

Nix is a more aggressive passer than Tua Tagovailoa and is leading a far more competent Broncos offense compared to Miami's regressed unit. The Broncos ranked ninth in red-zone passing (58%) versus Miami's 22nd (50.7%), positioning receivers like Jaylen Waddle for improved production.

Tagovailoa regressed massively in 2025, ranking 23rd in yards per attempt, 27th in passing yards per game (190), second in interceptions (15), and 32nd in deep throw rate. His poor performance contributed to the Dolphins' offense regressing so severely that both he and head coach Mike McDaniel lost their jobs.

Waddle finished as WR29 in fantasy points per game in 2025, but much of the blame lies with Tua Tagovailoa's massive regression rather than Waddle's performance. Tagovailoa ranked 23rd in yards per attempt, 27th in passing yards per game (190), second in interceptions (15), and 32nd in deep throw rate. The Dolphins' offense regressed so severely that both Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDaniel lost their jobs. Waddle now plays for a more aggressive passer in Bo Nix and a far more competent offense led by Sean Payton with surrounding talent to keep the ball moving. The Broncos ranked ninth in red-zone passing (58%) compared to Miami's 22nd (50.7%), which alone could help Waddle bounce back and potentially score double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.

Dowdle was more explosive than Chuba Hubbard last season and earned increased work, but he has since been allowed to move on from the Panthers, clearing the path for Hubbard to reclaim a larger role.

Brooks has generated hype as a potential lead back for the Panthers, but his college resume is limited: only 45 total yards and just one college season with more than 30 rush attempts. His unknown upside is intriguing, but he lacks the pass-protection experience that Chuba Hubbard brings to the role.

Hubbard wasn't great last season but deserves attention despite hype around Jonathon Brooks, who has only 45 total yards and one college season with 30+ rush attempts. Hubbard was banged up and lost work to Rico Dowdle, but his best work came against poor run defenses. He played over 25% of snaps only once between Weeks 9-12, but from Week 13 onwards was over 37% five times and saw a 62% snap share in the playoff game. Dowdle has moved on, and the team has discussed its belief that Hubbard can be a No. 1 RB; his value as a pass protector is massive—something Brooks has minimal NFL experience with.

Marks had a solid rookie season but struggled to create with Houston's poor offensive line, ranking 48th among 49 backs with 100+ attempts in yards per carry (3.59), 48th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. He is better suited to a change-of-pace role rather than a lead-back role, with youth being his only advantage over Montgomery.

Montgomery joined the Texans for significant draft capital with very little competition; Woody Marks, a fourth-rounder, ranked 48th among 49 backs with 100+ attempts in yards per carry (3.59), 48th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 37th in yards after contact per attempt, proving better suited to a change-of-pace role. Montgomery is a superior pass-catcher and goal-line back, with youth being Marks' only advantage. If the Texans improve offensive line play and C.J. Stroud's performance, Montgomery can easily reach top-18 running back status; he was RB32 in fantasy points per game last season but has potential to be a top-15 back in 2026.

Jackson displayed his ceiling early in 2025 before injuries stacked up; in three healthy games, he averaged 240 passing yards per game (sixth-most in league), ranked first in passer rating, and added 39.3 rushing yards per game for 0.90 fantasy points per dropback. Poor interior guard play allowed a 62% pressure rate (9% higher than any other QB) and 12.5% sack rate, while pass-catchers dropped 15.9% of his passes (2.6% higher than league average). The Ravens re-signed John Simpson and drafted Olaivavega Ioane at 14th overall to bolster the interior, with offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford expected to elevate play. Jackson is a 29-year-old two-time MVP multiple rounds cheaper than Josh Allen with just as high a ceiling.

Ricky Pearsall's injury status is prompting projection changes heading into training camp.

Jaylen Waddle is positioned as a potential bargain in fantasy drafts.

Bijan Robinson is a target in auction drafts; the source suggests there are still viable options available if managers get outbid on Robinson and Gibbs.

David Montgomery is positioned as a more straightforward start in managed redraft leagues compared to Travis Etienne, suggesting better clarity on his role and usage.

Josh Jacobs is positioned as a more straightforward start in managed redraft leagues compared to Travis Etienne, suggesting better clarity on his role and usage.

Cam Skattebo is positioned as a more straightforward start in managed redraft leagues compared to Travis Etienne, suggesting better clarity on his role and usage.

Deebo Samuel's landing spot and role are among the biggest training camp mysteries heading into the 2026 season.

Stefon Diggs' landing spot and role are among the biggest training camp mysteries heading into the 2026 season.

Treylon Burks, a 2022 first-rounder still just 26 years old, made an exceptional catch last season and was re-signed by the Commanders; with no obvious second target added behind Terry McLaurin, there is an opening for Burks to become more than a role player in dynasty formats.

Colston Loveland is trending up and positioned to challenge for TE1 status.

Kamara has risen almost a full round in ADP after restructuring his contract; he is RB54 on Underdog but RB46 in the source's ranks, making him an ideal fit for Zero RB builds to lock in early-season production.

Kamara agreed to a pay cut ($6M base with $2.5M in possible incentives) to stay with the Saints and will retain high-value touches including receiving work and goal-line opportunities; he maintained an 11% target share and was targeted on 16% of his routes last year.

The source prefers Etienne in best ball over redraft formats; in redraft, the source thinks guys like Cam Skattebo, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery will be more straightforward starts in managed leagues, though Etienne is perfectly fine in the fourth round.

Adam Pfeifer called Etienne the worst pick in Round 3 due to the Kamara situation; however, Etienne has since slid into early Round 4, which the source considers a much more palatable price tag.

Etienne's receiving work is at risk with Alvin Kamara joining the Saints; Kamara maintained an 11% target share and was targeted on 16% of his routes last year, and 94% of Etienne's receiving work came on early downs (attributed to Liam Cohen's scheme), meaning Kamara will likely eat into his high-value touches including receiving work and goal-line opportunities.

Despite the Saints signing Noah Fant in free agency and drafting Oscar Delp in the third round of the 2026 NFL Draft, Johnson should remain unchallenged as the team's top tight end, preserving his role and target opportunity.

Johnson is in an excellent fantasy environment with the Saints playing at the fastest pace (24.6 seconds/snap) and tied for fourth-most plays per 60 minutes (66) under Kellen Moore in 2025; Johnson ran the fourth-most routes (504) among all tight ends in the regular season, and fantasy points correlate more strongly with routes run at tight end than wide receiver.

In Tyler Shough's nine starts, Johnson posted elite usage metrics: 71.2% route participation, 16.3% target share, 5.4 targets per game, 41 receptions (4.6 per game), 521 receiving yards (57.9 per game), 2 receiving touchdowns, and 9.3 half-PPR points per game (8.7 expected), which would have ranked TE9 among tight ends with 8+ games in 2025.

Kraft was the TE2 in half-PPR points per game (12.6) among tight ends with 8+ games in 2025 but tore his ACL in Week 9, cutting his season short; he is currently TE5 in ADP at 82.2, which Joe Brady considers an entirely reasonable injury discount.

McBride led all tight ends with 14.9 half-PPR points per game among those with at least eight games played in 2025, establishing the benchmark for elite tight end production.

In his final 14 games of 2025, Loveland scored 11.1 half-PPR points per game (11.6 expected), placing him among only four tight ends with 8+ games played above that threshold; in his final four games he averaged 16.5 half-PPR points per game (19.5 expected), putting a TE1 finish in his range of outcomes.

Barner made meaningful strides from rookie to sophomore season in the passing game and represents a more exciting version of the high-snap-share tight end archetype with untapped potential; he would be fairly priced even without further improvement but can outkick his ADP if he takes another step forward in year three.

Barner is a plus athlete with strong blocking grades (15th in run blocking, 30th in pass blocking among 78 TEs with 150+ blocking snaps per PFF), which will help him stay on the field despite limited collegiate receiving production (career highs: 49 targets, 28 receptions, 249 yards, 3 TDs).

Joe Brady notes that Kincaid's ADP could be smashed by the Bills' offensive environment, suggesting his current draft price undervalues his upside in Buffalo's system.

AJ Barner is a plus athlete despite not being a speedster. The second-year tight end was drafted in round 4, pick 121 in the 2024 draft class and scored an 8.70 RAS out of 10.00, ranking 157 out of 1,199 tight ends from 1987 to 2024. Barner is also an asset as a blocker; PFF graded him 15th out of 78 tight ends with at least 150 blocking snaps in run blocking and 30th in pass blocking. His blocking ability will help him stay on the field. The Seahawks are getting rewarded for banking on his athleticism translating to the passing attack, even though Barner never reached 30 receptions or 250 receiving yards in a collegiate season.

Dalton Kincaid is a viable stacking option with Josh Allen and also an outstanding one-off pick. Kincaid was extremely efficient in a limited role last season while nursing a PCL injury. Among 45 tight ends who ran at least 200 routes in the regular season and playoffs last year, Kincaid ranked: fifth in average depth of target (9.1-yard aDOT), eighth in air yards share (18.2%), first in targets per route run (0.27), first in yards per route run (3.04), tied for sixth in touchdown receptions (seven), first in first downs per route run (0.147), and first in expected half-PPR points per route run (0.46). Kincaid had just a 45.7% route participation rate in 14 games. His blocking limitations and the presence of Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes, both superior blockers, will likely cap his playing time. Nevertheless, even a slight uptick in playing time and a higher pass rate from the Bills can result in Kincaid smashing his ADP.

Joe Brady's Skyler Bell roster percentage is more about structural preferences and his Allen roster percentage than about an expectation that Bell will immediately take the NFL by storm. Brady prefers to only pick two quarterbacks on most of his Allen teams, and on two-quarterback rosters, he aims to draft at least two stacking partners to compete with three-quarterback teams.

Joe Brady identifies Ladd McConkey as his bet for Herbert's pass-catcher who will benefit the most from better health along the offensive line. In the four games that Alt played the majority of snaps, McConkey posted: 91.3% route participation rate, 9.0-yard aDOT, 23.7% air yards share, 23.3% target share, 0.21 TPRR, 28.9% first-read rate, 31 targets (7.8 per game), 21 receptions (5.3 per game), 251 receiving yards (62.8 per game), 1.72 YPRR, 1 touchdown, 1 end-zone target, and 10.4 half-PPR points per game against brutal matchups. Brady is willing to give McConkey a pass for his sophomore slump.

Joe Brady argues DJ Moore's arrival in Buffalo is not comparable to Stefon Diggs' arrival before the 2020 season. Moore just turned 29 years old in mid-April, while Diggs was 27 when he joined the Bills. Diggs was coming off a hyper-efficient 2019 season, while Moore's final season in Chicago was lousy. Moore's production cratered in Caleb Williams' putrid rookie season, and Williams didn't do Moore any favors in his breakout sophomore season either. Fantasy Points credited Moore with 97 targets in 2025, and 19 of them (19.6%) were deemed uncatchable. Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2025, Williams was 31st in off-target throw percentage (19%) and 31st in catchable throw percentage (69.1%). Meanwhile, Allen was 11th in off-target throw percentage (14.8%) and first in catchable throw percentage (79.8%). Moore can rebound after back-to-back disappointing seasons with a change of scenery to a more accurate quarterback, but the comparison to Diggs is flawed.

Rashid Shaheed was among Joe Brady's most-targeted wideouts in pre-NFL Draft Underdog contests, and Brady continues to target him as evidenced by his roster percentages.

Jalen Coker was among Joe Brady's most-targeted wideouts in pre-NFL Draft Underdog contests, and Brady continues to target him as evidenced by his roster percentages.

Khalil Shakir was one of Joe Brady's most-targeted wideouts in pre-NFL Draft Underdog contests, and Brady continues to target him as evidenced by his roster percentages.

Terry McLaurin was one of Joe Brady's most-targeted wideouts in pre-NFL Draft Underdog contests, and Brady continues to target him as evidenced by his roster percentages.

Joe Brady touted Jaylen Waddle as a WR3 with WR1 potential earlier in the month and includes him on the best-ball target table.

Joe Brady touted Christian Watson as a WR3 with WR1 potential earlier in the month and includes him on the best-ball target table.

Joe Brady wrote about Ricky Pearsall as a must-have wide receiver in early May and includes him on the best-ball target table.

Ja'Marr Chase is referenced as a benchmark for money-down efficiency, tying with Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Parker Washington at 0.29 TPRR on 3rd and 4th downs in 2025.

Adonai Mitchell tied with Josh Downs and Parker Washington with Ja'Marr Chase at 0.29 TPRR on money downs (3rd and 4th) in 2025, demonstrating elite efficiency on high-leverage plays.

Josh Downs is highlighted as a must-have wide receiver in early May by Joe Brady. On money downs (3rd and 4th), Downs tied with Parker Washington and Adonai Mitchell with Ja'Marr Chase at 0.29 TPRR, and led all wide receivers with 3.09 YPRR on 70+ routes.

Parker Washington seized his opportunity last season and barbecued defenses. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, among 91 wide receivers with at least 200 routes run in the 2025 regular season and playoffs, Washington was tied for 17th in targets per route run (0.25 TPRR), 11th in yards per route run (2.36 YPRR), tied for 27th in targets per route run against man coverage (0.25 TPRR on 97 routes), 11th in yards per route run against man coverage (2.70 YPRR), tied for 16th in targets per route run against zone coverage (0.25 TPRR on 287 routes), and 15th in yards per route run against zone coverage (2.33 YPRR). Washington also cooked on the money downs, tying Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell with Ja'Marr Chase at 0.29 TPRR on 3rd and 4th downs.

Joe Brady states his Brandon Aiyuk picks look like money lit on fire and an obstacle those squads will need to overcome as he continues self-sabotage on social media, most recently criticizing the NFL Players Association (NFLPA). Brady expresses skepticism about Aiyuk's contract negotiations and overall judgment.

Joe Brady states he is happy to invest in Derrick Henry as one of the high-volume lead running backs selected in the first two rounds, alongside Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Chase Brown. Brady's favorite rosters feature one or two running backs through the first two rounds.

Joe Brady states he is happy to invest in Chase Brown as one of the high-volume lead running backs selected in the first two rounds, alongside Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. Brady's favorite rosters feature one or two running backs through the first two rounds.

Joe Brady states he is happy to invest in Saquon Barkley as one of the high-volume lead running backs selected in the first two rounds, alongside Christian McCaffrey, Chase Brown, and Derrick Henry. Brady's favorite rosters feature one or two running backs through the first two rounds.

Joe Brady states he is happy to invest in Christian McCaffrey as one of the high-volume lead running backs selected in the first two rounds, alongside Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, and Derrick Henry. Brady's favorite rosters feature one or two running backs through the first two rounds.

Charbonnet handled 66.7% of Seattle's rush attempts inside the 5-yard line and plunged into the end zone 12 times as a rusher in 17 games last season. Per PFF, Charbonnet's 67 pass-blocking snaps led Seattle's running backs, and he led the backfield in route participation rate (33.7%). The club picked Jadarian Price in the first round of this year's NFL Draft, but Charbonnet could be trusted with the high-value opportunities (goal-line and passing-down work) when he returns. Joe Brady recommends thoughtful roster construction anticipating he might miss time or underperform early, making him valuable only when bye weeks are staggered, backloaded, or he's part of a backfield of six or more running backs. When healthy, Charbonnet's goal-line and passing-down dominance could make him a leverage play in best-ball playoffs if less thoughtful gamers depress their advancement odds by drafting him unprepared.

Among 60 running backs with at least 65 rush attempts in the regular season and playoffs last year, Corum was second in success rate (60.2%), fourth in stuff rate (38%), and seventh in explosive run rate (6.4%). He averaged 43.3 rushing yards per game and scored six rushing touchdowns in 20 games, siphoning some work from Kyren Williams. Corum can hit best ball lineups occasionally if Williams stays healthy, and his value would skyrocket if Williams were injured.

Among 60 running backs with at least 65 rush attempts in the regular season and playoffs last year, Corum was second in success rate (60.2%), fourth in stuff rate (38%) and seventh in explosive run rate (6.4%). He averaged 43.3 rushing yards per game and scored six rushing touchdowns in 20 games, siphoning some work from Kyren Williams. He can hit best ball lineups occasionally if Williams stays healthy, and Corum's value would skyrocket if Williams were injured.

Warren must compete with Rico Dowdle for backfield opportunities, but his pass-catching chops could result in him absorbing more looks from Aaron Rodgers without Gainwell. Warren is also a quality runner, and if Mike McCarthy doesn't prefer to use the bigger and more bruising Dowdle as the club's designated goal-line back, Warren should have some touchdown opportunities. Warren might be the better option at the goal line if McCarthy leans on the pass, given the Cowboys were sixth in pass rate inside the 10-yard line (57%) in 2023 and 2024 under McCarthy.

Walker adds an explosive element to the Chiefs and should thrive on his new team. The Chiefs were sixth in stuff rate (42.3%) and third in success rate (53.8%) with plodders at running back, suggesting Walker's explosiveness will be a significant upgrade.

Gainwell is a bet against Bucky Irving, for Tampa Bay's offensive line to be healthier, and for new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to improve the offense. Gainwell was RB26 in half-PPR points per game (10.9) among running backs with at least eight games played in 2025 and has a track record of excelling in the passing game. He set career highs for rush attempts (114), rushing yards (537) and rushing touchdowns (five) in the regular season in 2025.

Tucker is a bet against Bucky Irving, for Tampa Bay's offensive line to be healthier, and for new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to get more out of the offense than fired coordinator Josh Grizzard did in 2025. Tucker paced Tampa Bay with 55% of the team's rush attempts inside the 5-yard line and seven rushing touchdowns in 2025. He has illustrated the ability to explode in a given week, scoring 32.7 half-PPR points in Week 6 in 2024 and 33 in Week 11 in 2025.

Mitchell is highlighted for his explosiveness and ideal fit in Mike McDaniel's offense. Joe Brady has banged the drum for him the entire offseason. In best ball, gamers don't need to guess when he'll have an explosive run if he remains in a modest role and doesn't see expansion under McDaniel, making him a compelling target.

Davis is a player to target at Underdog at his ADP. One reason to love him is Carmichael's track record of using running backs in the passing game. Davis is a compelling and cheap handcuff to James Cook, making him an attractive late-round target in Underdog drafts given Cook's heightened injury risk from 385 touches.

Cook is a player to target at Underdog at his ADP. He's coming off a rushing title in 2025 and 32 touchdowns in 33 games in the regular season over the past two years. One reason to love him is Carmichael's track record of using running backs in the passing game. However, Cook might be at heightened risk of injury in 2026 after logging a career-high 385 touches in the regular season and playoffs.

Coleman is the least expensive exposure for Denver's backfield, which could be an annoying three-player running-back-by-committee situation. He has the requisite size and skills to handle goal-line duties and pass-protection responsibilities, giving him a path to the field if he's better than J.K. Dobbins as a runner, if Dobbins is hurt again, or as a passing-game option if Payton sours on RJ Harvey or the second-year running back is injured.

Purdy was QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.8) among quarterbacks with at least eight games played in 2025. If he and his teammates, new and old, are healthier in 2026, Purdy should outkick his QB12 ranking. He's also back-stackable, making him compelling to pair with Christian McCaffrey or Mike Evans.

Nix was QB7 in total points (328.2) and QB8 in fantasy points per game (19.3) in 2024, and QB7 (315.8) and QB11 (18.6) in 2025. His recovery from ankle surgery could impact his rushing ability. The Broncos are tied for fourth in situation-neutral pass rate (58%) since 2025 and added a new, speedy No. 1 wide receiver via trade to complement their existing ball-winning No. 1 wide receiver, supporting upside.

Willis could conceivably get benched if the Dolphins play poorly, but his upside is compelling. He was tied for fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in 2024 and first in EPA per play in 2025. His rushing ability elevates his floor and gives him spike-week potential. Excluding Taysom Hill's 2022 and Lamar Jackson's 2018, the other 30 quarterback seasons of at least 500 rushing yards since 2016 produced at least 17.27 fantasy points per game.

Lawrence is highlighted as a must-have quarterback. From Week 10 through Week 18, he was the QB1 in total points (210.9) and the QB1 in fantasy points per game (23.4), demonstrating elite late-season production.

Herbert is highlighted as a must-have quarterback. He scored 22.4 fantasy points per game in the four games Joe Alt had at least a 90% snap share, demonstrating significant upside when his elite left tackle is healthy.

Love is a candidate for an upward move in passing rate. The Packers were 24th in pass rate over expectation (-2.1% PROE) in 2025 and have streamlined their wide receiver corps while aiming for better health among top pass-catching weapons. Love was QB15 in total points (241.1) and QB19 in fantasy points per game (16.1) in 2025 despite the run-heavy offense, and QB17 in total points (244.9) and QB16 in fantasy points per game (16.3) in 2024 when the Packers ranked 30th in PROE (-4.5%). At QB18 ADP, even a rebound to 2024 form would be a small hit, but a seismic shift in passing rate could make him a big hit.

Allen is a reliable stud with a jaw-dropping weekly ceiling. His high roster rate in best ball is justified despite Joe Brady's Bills fandom. The Bills are expected to increase their passing rate in 2026 under new head coach Joe Brady (formerly offensive coordinator), moving from 28th in situation-neutral pass rate (51% from Week 11 2023 through Super Bowl) toward the middle of the pack, which would significantly boost Allen's passing outlook.

Pitts entered 2025 with a reputation as a perennial fantasy tease but rehabilitated his image with 88 catches for 928 yards and five touchdowns, finishing TE2 in half-point PPR scoring. His best performance came in Week 15 against the Buccaneers with 11 catches, 166 yards and three touchdowns—his best season since his 1,026-yard rookie campaign in 2021. The Falcons don't have significant wide receiver firepower beyond Drake London, positioning Pitts as Atlanta's No. 2 target earner. While the QB duo of Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa doesn't seem appealing on the surface, Mike Gesicki and Jonnu Smith had the best fantasy seasons of their careers with Tua as their primary QB, suggesting Pitts could thrive in that system.

Kraft is recovering from an ACL tear and small meniscus tear that ended his 2025 season after eight games. Before the injury against the Panthers in Week 9, he was TE2 in fantasy scoring behind only Trey McBride with 32 catches for 489 yards and six touchdowns. He had a breakout 2024 season with 50 catches for 707 yards and seven touchdowns. Kraft averaged an astounding 2.33 yards per route run last season and is a beast after the catch, averaging 8.8 yards after catch per reception over his three-year career. If fully healthy, he could produce big numbers in 2026. The Packers parted ways with WRs Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks and didn't add notable pass catchers in the offseason. The source recommends monitoring Kraft's recovery over the summer and being prepared to pounce if he comes with an injury discount in 2026 drafts.

Warren's rookie season showed a stark split: over his first 10 games, he averaged 5.0 catches, 61.7 receiving yards and 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game with four touchdowns; over his last seven games, he averaged 3.7 catches, 28.6 receiving yards and 5.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game with one touchdown. He finished TE5 with 76 catches for 817 yards and five total touchdowns. Daniel Jones' late-season injuries may have contributed to the slowdown, and his health status could still be an issue early in 2026. However, the Colts traded away WR Michael Pittman in the offseason and didn't make significant pass-catching acquisitions, bolstering Warren's 2026 target outlook. The source expects Warren to be one of the first five tight ends off the board in 2026 drafts.

Loveland, the 10th overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, finished TE12 in half-point PPR scoring as a rookie with 58 catches for 713 yards and six touchdowns. From Week 9 on, he was TE2 in fantasy scoring behind only Trey McBride. Over Chicago's last four games (two regular season, two playoffs), Bears head coach Ben Johnson fully unleashed Loveland with 10+ targets in each game, averaging 12.0 targets, 7.0 catches and 94.5 receiving yards, plus two TDs. In the playoff win over the Packers, Loveland was targeted 15 times with eight catches for 137 yards. The 6-6, 241-pound Loveland is a matchup nightmare with his size and speed. He is the consensus TE3 for 2026 fantasy drafts behind only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.

Bowers is widely considered one of the best TE prospects to ever enter the league and had 112 catches for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns on 153 targets as a rookie. With better health in 2026 following an injury-plagued Year 2 (PCL injury and bone bruise in 2025), he has a chance to match or exceed his rookie numbers. The Raiders are talent-starved at wide receiver, positioning Bowers as their alpha pass catcher. New head coach Klint Kubiak is entrusted to repair the Las Vegas offense, and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza offers hope at QB. The source recommends targeting Bowers in the back half of the second round or early in the third round of 12-team fantasy drafts.

Romeo Doubs moves from Green Bay (30th in neutral passing rate) to New England (9th in neutral passing rate) and should be Drake Maye's clear WR2 behind A.J. Brown. The source projects a volume bump and notes that New England may increase its neutral passing rate further with the additions of Brown and Doubs. Green Bay's receiver rotation (Doubs had 72.8% route share last year) combined with the Patriots' higher passing volume makes Doubs 'a late-round value.' Last season, Doubs was WR43 in fantasy points per game with five weeks as a top-25 fantasy wideout. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 36th in target per route run rate, 31st in yards per route run, 18th in first downs per route run, 27th in fantasy points per route run, 23rd in separation, and 5th in route win rate. The source projects Doubs as 'primed to explode this season with WR2/3 upside if everything goes right.'

Wan'Dale Robinson had a true breakout campaign last season as WR14 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (26.8%), 15th in receiving yards per game (63.4), 28th in yards per route run (1.94), and 11th in first-read share (32.9%) among 109 qualifying receivers. His aDOT rose to 8.7 and he ranked 21st in deep targets, showing he was no longer just a checkdown option. Robinson moves to Tennessee with more target competition (Carnell Tate, Calvin Ridley) but should be the clear WR2. The source notes his connection to Brian Daboll, who oversaw his breakout, gives hope for his 2026 outlook. His floor and ceiling are tied to Cam Ward's development with the new coaching staff.

D.J. Moore sank to WR41 in fantasy points per game last season in Chicago but has been traded to Buffalo as Josh Allen's new WR1. While his 2025 metrics were poor (14.3% target share, 1.33 yards per route run, 17.5% first-read share, 0.063 first downs per route run), the source notes that Joe Brady's previous experience with Moore and Buffalo's belief in his ability to return to form are supported by Moore's deeper analytics. As a perimeter receiver (which he'll play more than the 65% of snaps last year), Moore ranked 36th in separation and 29th in route win rate among 109 receivers—metrics that improve significantly in that role. The source projects Moore as 'a nice bounceback candidate this season as a WR2/3 with upside for much more.'

Mike Evans' on-field production last season (1.86 yards per route run, 52.6 receiving yards per game) underperformed his deeper analytics due to Baker Mayfield's inaccuracy rather than Evans slowing down. Evans ranked second-best in separation and route win rate last season and had only a 70.9% catchable target rate (84th among 109 receivers), indicating the quarterback was the limiting factor. The source projects that with improved quarterback play in San Francisco, Evans' elite separation and route-winning ability should translate to WR1-level production.

Mike Evans moves to San Francisco and the source projects him as 'a wonderful value in fantasy drafts.' While Evans dealt with hamstring issues, his 2025 limitation was a broken collarbone. Before 2025, he had never played fewer than 13 games in any season and had played at least 14 games every season since 2020. In his seven full games played last year, Evans posted a 24.4% target share, 30.6% first-read share, and 0.116 first downs per route run—metrics that would have ranked 13th-best among 109 qualifying receivers. The source projects Evans as 'one of the best values on the board for fantasy season with WR1 upside' if he stays healthy.

Last season, Jaylen Waddle ranked 12th in target per route run rate, 12th in yards per route run, 7th in first downs per route run, 12th in separation score, and 11th in route win rate among 109 qualifying receivers. He bested Courtland Sutton in each of those metrics except route win rate (15.3% vs. 15.5%). The source describes Waddle as 'a stud no matter what metric you look at,' supporting his WR2/WR1 upside projection.

Jaylen Waddle moves from Miami (29th in neutral passing rate) to Denver (4th in neutral passing rate). Denver was fourth in passing attempts last season behind only Arizona, Cincinnati, and Dallas. The source calls Waddle a 'flag plant player' for 2026, projecting him as a WR2 with WR1 upside due to the significant volume infusion from the scheme change.

Last season, A.J. Brown ranked ninth in target share (27.5%), eighth in first-read share (35%), and 17th in yards per route run (2.23) among 109 qualifying receivers. The source notes concerns about Drake Maye spreading the ball around are unfounded because New England lacked an alpha-level receiver like Brown previously; that dynamic has changed. Brown is positioned as a strong WR1 with more upside than he's had in previous seasons.

A.J. Brown moves from Philadelphia (15th in neutral passing rate) to New England (9th in neutral passing rate, likely to climb higher). The source projects Brown could spike a career-high in touchdowns this season because Philadelphia was 32nd in passing rate inside the ten-yard line while New England was 15th, potentially sending him into top-five status among fantasy receivers. Brown is a strong WR1 with more upside than previous seasons due to the passing volume floor and ceiling for New England.

Price was selected in the first round by the Seahawks to be their new lead back, with potential to surpass Kenneth Walker's red zone usage. The source projects Price as an intriguing RB2 with a ton of upside in 2026, highlighting his elite rushing talent from college: ranked 25th and 5th in yards after contact per attempt, 31st and 3rd in breakaway rate, and 15th and 39th in elusive rating over his last two seasons at Notre Dame (per PFF). Uncertainty remains in the passing game after only 13 targets over two college seasons, and he competes with Zach Charbonnet (health unknown), Emanuel Wilson, and George Holani for work.

Pollard remains the clear lead back for the Titans entering 2026 but finished as RB29 in fantasy points per game in 2025 due to offensive limitations (30th in points per game, 32nd in red zone scoring attempts, 49th in red zone touches). The source projects Pollard will return strong RB2 value and production in 2026, citing improved offensive context: new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll historically rides one running back, plus additions of Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson to the passing game, improved play from Cam Ward, and an offensive line that ranked 13th in yards before contact per attempt. Pollard's per-touch efficiency was solid in 2025 (25th in explosive run rate, 22nd in yards after contact among 49 qualifying backs).

Montgomery is now the Texans' do-it-all workhorse for 2026 after being phased out of Detroit's plans in 2025, finishing as RB32 in fantasy points per game. The source projects Montgomery as a strong volume-driven RB2 that could flirt with RB1 production, expecting him to absorb a workload close to what Joe Mixon saw in 2024 (5th in opportunity share, 14th in snap share, 13th in carries, 281 touches). Despite concerns about splitting work with Woody Marks, the source notes Montgomery bested Marks in every per-touch metric: explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per route run.

Walker arrives in Kansas City as the Chiefs' new lead back after a disappointing RB28 finish in 2025 with Seattle, where he split passing game usage with Zach Charbonnet and was limited in the red zone (34.8% of RB red zone rushing work versus Charbonnet's 51 carries). The source projects Walker as an explosive RB1 in 2026, citing his elite per-touch efficiency: ranked 2nd in explosive run rate, 1st in missed tackle rate, 9th in yards per route run, and 12th in first downs per route run in 2025. With a lucrative contract and a fresh start, the source expects Walker to receive high usage without being a true bellcow, which suits his injury history.

Hampton contributed through the air in his first four NFL games with a 10.1% target share, 27.5 receiving yards per game, and 1.12 yards per route run, demonstrating receiving upside that aligns with McDaniel's historical offensive design.

In Weeks 1-4 of his rookie season before ankle injury, Hampton averaged 17 touches and 95 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. Over that span, he posted a 7.4% explosive run rate (would rank 4th among 100+ carry backs), 19% missed tackle rate (10th), and 2.54 yards after contact per attempt (8th). The source projects Hampton as a rock-solid RB1 with massive upside in 2026 as Mike McDaniel's possible bellcow, noting McDaniel's offenses ranked 3rd, 3rd, and 7th in target share to running backs over the last three seasons.

Herbert has the biggest gap between positional ADP and positional ECR among back-end QB1s and high-end QB2s, suggesting he is more undervalued on ESPN than Trevor Lawrence.