Week 9 Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Decisions to Win Your League! (Scott's Flu Game)

On a cold streak: averaging 12 PPG over last four games vs. 26.4 PPG first four weeks; under 8% target share four times this year (only twice all of last year); inefficient rushing with recent 40-carry stretch averaging under 4.1 yards per carry; being outproduced by Jamyr Gibbs; Atlanta's weaker team context and reduced touchdown opportunities compared to Detroit's offense. Despite being ranked as a fringe RB1 for Week 9 start/sit purposes, the underlying efficiency and role concerns suggest caution.

Braelon Allen is ranked as a low-end RB1 by the source, averaging 16.5 fantasy points per game, top-15 in expected fantasy points per game, and second-best rushing success rate this year. His projection is contingent on Breece Hall remaining sidelined, though Hall is expected to return. Allen faces a bottom-10 matchup against Kansas City.

QB13 in fantasy points per game and XFP per game over last two weeks; 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 2-3 TD:INT ratio, 11 sacks, ranked second-worst in adjusted net yards per attempt; source is out on Young as a start in Week 9 vs. Denver's elite defense (healthy Patrick Surtain, strong pass rush, top coverage unit), especially given stark contrast to his strong first 5-6 weeks; viewed as a pumpkin heading into Thanksgiving rather than a bounce-back candidate.

Mid-range RB1 projection for Week 9 against Atlanta, which ranks fourth most fantasy points per game allowed to running backs and is bottom-seven in both passing and rushing defense, fitting Brown's dual-threat skill set. However, Brown is the least efficient running back in football by fantasy points over expectation by a significant margin—RB 19 in fantasy points per game but RB 10 in XFP per game, indicating severe inefficiency and touchdown luck issues. Backfield XFP share has increased from 57% in Week 5 to 69% in Week 7 to 83% last week, returning to typical volume levels as a pure volume back with top-three offense utilization. This level of efficiency almost never sustains itself, creating long-term role security risk if the Bengals pursue upgrades. The source personally likes Brown in this matchup as a great breakout week despite the inefficiency concerns, though notes that while he has had the role and role has been great, fantasy points haven't followed.

Dak Prescott is having a disappointing year, ranking QB12 in fantasy points per game and QB7 in XFP per game, indicating bad efficiency despite maintaining top-three catchable throw rate historically (now well below average). The source ranks him QB3 for the Week 9 matchup against Indianapolis, viewing it as a potential 'get right' spot given the Colts' sixth-most fantasy points allowed per dropback. However, the source disagrees with this QB3 ranking, believing Prescott should be QB6 instead, citing confidence concerns; while Dallas may be using the Colts matchup as a confidence-building game for Prescott after recent struggles, this doesn't justify the elevated ranking. Dallas's recent negative EPA in the run game (negative 4.8% in last two weeks, bottom-five mark) creates uncertainty about whether this will be a Dak bounce-back or Javonte Williams nuke game.

Massive buy-low candidate ranked second among all WRs in yards per game (100+) since Michael Penix took over; top-5 in yards per route run; positioned as fringe top-5 fantasy WR despite market undervaluation. Poor matchup this week vs. Cincinnati (DJ Turner shadow coverage, fourth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to outside WRs) but strong buy-low opportunity next week after expected poor performance.

Emmet Johnson shows insane efficiency with explosive plays despite low touch volume. He's a very good pass-catcher, probably better than Kenneth Walker, and could develop into a game-script split role as a scatback similar to Jerick McKinnon in this offense. If Kenneth Walker goes down, Johnson looks like an every-week RB1.

Route share jumped to 72% in first game back from injury last week, up significantly from his typical 51% baseline; indicates increased tight end role and opportunity in Bengals offense.

In concussion protocol after injury surfaced in practice Wednesday before Week 9. Insufficient days remain in the week for clearance, making him unlikely to play in the Jets-Chiefs matchup.

WR3 in XFP per game and WR4 in fantasy points per game when excluding Week 4 (20% snap share due to injury); looked great in recent performance; top-tier wide receiver in Bengals stack.

Fringe WR2 projection for Week 9 vs. Denver; must-start despite cautious outlook; source doesn't expect a ton of production this week but still recommends starting; benefits from Carolina's top-4 play volume (top 4 in plays per game, top 4 in P row) which should provide baseline volume even with Young's recent struggles.

Javonte Williams is positioned as a potential 'nuke game' candidate in the highest over-under matchup of the week (51.5) against Indianapolis. He leads the league in rushing expected touchdowns and has been more productive than Derrick Henry this year with similar yards per carry, suggesting significant upside in a game where Dallas's recent negative EPA in the run game (negative 4.8% in last two weeks) could flip positive against a weak Colts defense. The source argues Williams should be ranked RB3, not RB12, based on rushing efficiency dominance; he's been "more Derrick Henry than Derrick Henry this year" and should be valued significantly higher in rankings despite his current placement.

Wide QB1 projection; averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game over last five games (29.1 ppg with low of 23.6); four-plus touchdown passes in three straight games and three-plus in four of last five; Bengals lead league in pass rate over expectation.

Favorable matchup against Cowboys, who allow 11.46 yards per target to slot receivers and are weak against play action and 12 personnel—boxes Downs checks. Ranked as low-end WR4 but the source likes him in this spot. However, Downs is being out-targeted and out-produced by Keenan Allen; Allen ranks 13th in targets per route run, 16th in yardage market share, 18th in targets per game, and top 24 in XFP per game and fantasy points per game since Week 3, looking like a fringe WR2 by every measure and brutally out-alpha'ing Downs.

Fringe WR2 by multiple efficiency metrics since Week 3: 13th in targets per route run, 16th in yardage market share, 18th in targets per game, and top 24 in XFP per game and fantasy points per game. The source emphasizes Allen is brutally out-alpha'ing Josh Downs and should be valued significantly higher than his low-end WR4 counterpart.

Kenneth Walker faces significant durability concerns despite strong talent. The source, who is his biggest fan and owns him in multiple leagues, admits to holding his breath every week that he doesn't get hurt, indicating persistent injury risk that caps his ceiling. This durability concern is compounded by backup Emmet Johnson showing elite efficiency on limited touches, creating a potential split-role scenario if Walker's health falters.

Mark Andrews benefits from the Jacoby Brissett trade to the Baltimore Ravens. Brissett historically targets tight ends at the highest rate in the league across his entire career dating back to college, providing a significant upgrade in target opportunity for Andrews.

Fringe low-end TE1/high-end TE2 in play for Week 9; benefits from Atlanta matchup which is a reverse slot funnel ranked second-best in fantasy points per game allowed to slot wide receivers; Gesicki functions more as slot receiver than traditional tight end.

Omar Cooper Jr. ranks top three in yards per route run among all wide receivers and posted 100-plus yards and a touchdown in two of his three career full-game starts. However, he drew zero targets last week despite elite efficiency metrics. He benefits from Garrett Wilson's absence in Week 9, creating an opportunity for increased target volume.

Top 12 in yards per route run and top 12 in fantasy points per route run; Ravens give up the seventh most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers, creating a premier matchup. However, Jacksonville's 10-point favorite status and Joey Flacco's inability to distribute the ball (zero Jacksonville players had more than two catches last week in similar game script) threatens to limit route volume despite the favorable slot coverage matchup. The source notes this is "another spot for him to drop a 40 burger" but game script concerns dominate the analysis.

Averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game over his last three full games, but volume hasn't been as strong as that scoring rate suggests. Ranked WR23 by the source.

Samaje Perine's backfield share has increased significantly: 57% of backfield XFP in week five, 69% in week seven, and 83% last week, returning to his typical level. The source notes there was pearl clutching over Perine's role, but the real issue is inefficiency. Perine ranks RB 19 by fantasy points per game but RB 10 by XFP per game, indicating he is underperforming his expected fantasy points.

First in yards per target, fourth in yards per route run, fifth in fantasy points per game; 90-plus receiving yards in five of last six games (excluding decoy game before bye); 150-plus receiving yards in three of last four games; on an elite hot streak benefiting from defensive scheme adjustments where safeties shade toward Ja'Marr Chase, opening up increased target volume for Higgins.

Travis Kelce is ranked as TE7 by the source's the source, a ranking the source finds reasonable and appropriate.

First in EPA per play and playing at a top-10 level; finished last season on an eight-to-nine game tear as well. However, the source attributes much of his success to favorable circumstances—pillow soft defenses, great starting field position, and positive game script—rather than a fundamental corner turn. The source ranks him below the top five QBs (Allen, Burrow, Goff, Caleb, Drake May, Brock Purdy) but acknowledges that many good QBs benefit from easy matchups and that his statistical outcomes are legitimate.

Bust prospect who has never hit 85 receiving yards in 37 career regular season games despite six or more targets in over half of those games. Over the last two weeks, he has 12 targets for only 24 yards (2.0 yards per target average), worse than Cyrus Allen on just four targets. Speed alone doesn't translate to WR success; Worthy lacks route-running and body control skills despite being a 4.2 runner. The source declares this situation is finally over.

Facing a significant QB downgrade from Lamar Jackson (8.0 yards per route run) to Tyler Huntley (3.0+ yards per route run) to now Joey Flacco; had zero catches with Flacco last week despite a 3.1 ADoT, suggesting severe distribution issues. The source (Ryan Heath) is calling Flowers a sit this week. While a counterargument notes that if Flowers could produce with Tyler Huntley (a poor QB), he should be able to produce with Flacco, the source remains pessimistic about the overall situation.