The Show: Alarming Stats, Wide Receiver Hit Rates, and More
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 1 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 18, 2026
Published
Thu, June 18, 2026
39
Player insights
29
Players mentioned
Topics
J.K. DobbinsRashee RiceRJ HarveyBrian Thomas Jr.D.J. MooreMatthew StaffordParker WashingtonAmon-Ra St. BrownBucky IrvingCam WardChris OlaveChris RodriguezGeorge PickensJavonte Williams
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveProjection0:37
St. Brown is one of only three top-18 wide receivers with a 12%+ first-downs-per-route-run rate, indicating strong predictability and stability; he should outperform ADP expectations by 1.15 PPR points per game on average.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveBreakout0:27
Thomas was named the MVP of Jaguars practices so far, suggesting potential for a breakout season and possible depth chart movement ahead of Parker Washington.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:28
Thomas is a good player and a one-to-two turn guy in drafts; his game is conducive to best ball formats, and he should be drafted in best ball despite some uncertainty with Parker Washington.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveInjury21:40
Irving has a shoulder injury that has been discussed, but the timeline for his recovery may be less concerning than R.J. Harvey's torn labrum situation in the context of the Denver backfield.
Insight pageCam Ward
PositiveProjection0:30
Ward's year-one numbers were objectively bad, and while situation and coaching improvements matter, his poor rookie metrics still indicate risk; he's fine in best ball but carries more risk in dynasty.
Insight pageChris Olave
NegativeInjury5:45
Alave suffered blood clots, a serious health issue that is harder to speculate on than typical football injuries. While the analysts hope he recovers well, they are reacting negatively and adjusting their ADP expectations downward, though they don't believe it will threaten his playing time.
Insight pageChris Rodriguez
NegativeRole0:24
Rodriguez was not the Jaguars' first option at early-down back despite the narrative that he was a Liam Cohen guy, which is a negative indicator for his role.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
NegativeProjection0:40
Moore's 2025 stats are alarming; with a 1.22 yards-per-route-run rate among top-40 wide receivers by ADP, he underperformed versus expectation by 1.2 PPR points per game, and top-30 receivers with sub-1.5 yards-per-route-run rates underperform by 2.8 PPR points per game.
Insight pageNegativeValue0:41
Moore is a very scary pick right now despite moving to Buffalo, as his poor efficiency metrics suggest he will underperform expectations significantly.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveRole18:00
Pickens reported for mandatory mini camp, avoiding drama. Market score and trend analysis for early-round wide receivers like Pickens based on previous season performance, suggesting he could be a value if everything goes smoothly, though some ambiguity remains.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
PositiveUsage0:21
Dobbins had a 4.2% target share last year and was inefficient per route run, making him a poor pass-catcher option in PPR formats where upside is prioritized in mid-to-late rounds.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:21
Dobbins should not be drafted straight up ahead of R.J. Harvey because Harvey offers better ceiling upside as a pass-catcher in PPR formats, despite Dobbins potentially having a higher median projection.
Insight pagePositiveRole20:12
Dobbins nearly signed with the Jaguars in free agency but Denver re-signed him, keeping him in the Broncos backfield. His presence complicates the Denver backfield situation alongside R.J. Harvey.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeProjection0:50
Williams had 0.4 yards per route run last year. Of 17 RBs ranked 13-36 with sub-0.6 yards per route run since 2014 (50+ routes), only one outperformed expectations by 2+ PPR points. The analyst believes Williams is being drafted purely for projected volume, not talent, and expects him to match ADP at best, not reach top-10 RB status.
Insight pageJayden Reed
PositiveBreakout0:33
Reed has been very efficient per route run throughout his career and may get more opportunity to play on the outside if Matthew Golden doesn't show improvement, making him a potential breakout in redraft.
Insight pageJaydon Blue
PositiveRole0:53
The analyst is concerned that Jadon Blue could take receiving work from Javante Williams, potentially hurting Williams' fantasy value. If Blue becomes a 7% target share player, it could significantly diminish Williams' production.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveRole0:33
Downs has a clearer path to playing time in two-wide receiver sets with no difficult competition ahead of him, unlike Jaden Reed, making him a safer option in that role.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection0:39
Jefferson's ceiling is comparable to Amon Ra St. Brown's, but he lacks the stability and predictability that St. Brown offers, making him a riskier pick in the first round.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeProjection0:45
Walker scored only 3.5 receiving PPR points per game last year. Historically, top-18 RBs with 0-4 receiving PPR points in the prior season underperformed expectations at the highest rate, with only 6% outperforming ADP by 4+ PPR points the following year. The analyst has cooled on Walker due to potential receiving role competition.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
PositiveUsage0:44
Before Drake London's injury, Pitts averaged 9.6 PPR points per game with a 21% target share and 19% targets per route run rate. After London's Week 12 injury, Pitts jumped to 27% target share, 24% targets per route run, and 16.3 PPR points per game, showing significant volume dependence on London's absence.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
NegativeProjection0:53
McConkey's 6.2% first downs per route run rate last year is alarming. Of 28 top-36 WRs with 300+ routes and sub-7% first downs per route run since 2014, they underperformed by 1.6 PPR points on average. The analyst is concerned the market will overvalue McConkey in August despite his weak 2025 performance.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveProjection0:55
The analyst really loves Luther Burden but is cautious about market overvaluation in August, similar to concerns with Lad McConkey. He's trying to stay grounded and not get carried away with hype around these players.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveValue0:34
Golden can still be drafted in double-digit rounds in best ball, which is a great price for a player who could provide wide receiver two or three production despite limited ceiling.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection0:43
Stafford's 17.7% touchdown rate is concerning because 16 QBs since 2014 with prior-season TD rates above 7% underperformed expectations by 1.7 PPR points per game the following year. The analyst expects Stafford to be drafted as a fringe top-10 QB in home leagues despite this regression pattern, making him a fade.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:43
Stafford's 17.7% touchdown rate in 2024 is concerning; quarterbacks with previous-season TD rates above 7% have underperformed versus expectation by 1.7 PPR points per game the following year.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveRole0:47
In three games with Jacoby Burrow and Marvin Harrison Jr. running 80%+ of team routes, Wilson averaged 7.8 PPR points with a 14% target share—unusable production. Wilson only thrived when Harrison Jr. was sidelined, and with Harrison healthy, the analyst expects Wilson's production to decline significantly.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout0:28
Washington is liked by most trends more than Brian Thomas, and the analyst is drafting both Jaguars receivers to get exposure to the wide receiver room.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:48
Unlike Michael Wilson, Parker Washington showed efficiency when given opportunity after Travis Hunter's injury, posting 1.59+ yards per route run while playing alongside Brian Thomas and Jacoby Myers, demonstrating he can produce even with other weapons present.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection0:39
Nakua is one of only three top-18 wide receivers with a 12%+ first-downs-per-route-run rate, indicating strong predictability and outperformance versus ADP expectations.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveRole7:57
Rice completed his 30-day jail sentence and showed mobility leaving jail, which is a positive sign. Despite discipline concerns, analysts believe he will play this season in a Chiefs system beneficial for fantasy scoring, though his ADP has fallen to the late third round.
Insight pageNegativeBust8:00
Rice's repeated discipline issues raise serious concerns about his mental state and decision-making, particularly given his probation status. While the current offense may not draw NFL discipline, the pattern of behavior is concerning for dynasty league owners.
Insight pagePositiveProjection9:00
Rice is probably overrated as a player relative to his fantasy production, but he remains in a Chiefs system that is very beneficial for scoring fantasy points, making him a logical draft target at his current ADP despite the question marks.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
PositiveRole0:23
Harvey was pretty good as a pass-catcher last year and should be ranked ahead of Dobbins from a rankings perspective, though his ADP may fall slightly.
Insight pageNegativeInjury20:12
Harvey suffered a torn labrum in the playoff game against the Patriots and had surgery. While the repair should not negatively impact his receiving ability, the timeline could be more concerning than Bucky Irving's shoulder injury.
Insight pagePositiveProjection22:00
Harvey has the most upside in the Denver backfield and should have the highest ADP among Broncos backs. He was a rookie in a tandem situation last year, so his full potential has not yet been realized, making him a better value than J.K. Dobbins despite potentially lower median projections.
Insight pageTerry McLaurin
PositiveValue0:39
McLaurin is another favorable candidate for outperformance based on first-downs-per-route-run metrics, though he may not be liked enough by the market to reach top-18 ADP.
Insight pageTre Harris
PositiveRole0:56
Trey Harris is positioned as a potential upside play if he receives more offensive work in the McConkey/QJ Outlaw receiving room.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveValue0:28
Lawrence is recommended as the primary exposure to the Jaguars offense in season-long leagues, allowing access to the entire wide receiver room through one player.
Insight pageZamir White
PositiveRole0:56
News that Zemir White is working out for the Cowboys makes the analyst like Javante Williams even more, as White would be less of a threat to Williams' volume than other potential backfield competition.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. This is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer, and this summer, Topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination.
0:08They've got a new soccer-themed game you can play with your group, exclusive food and drink items, they've even installed full-size soccer
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0:20And every match all summer long will be on throughout the venue.
0:24And if you want to keep the fun going all summer, you can get the Topgolf Summer Fun Pass, which lets you
0:31play every single day and bring up to five guests every visit.
0:35Get yours now at topgolf.com slash funpass. You're about to listen to the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube.
0:42If you'd like to catch the show live this off-season, you can head to the Late-Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel, youtube.com slash atlateroundff.
0:49We'll be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern. Without further ado, here's this week's episode.
0:54Welcome in, welcome in. It's the Late-Round Fantasy Football Show sponsored by DraftKings.
0:58David Kitchen here alongside my pal, my friend, my employer, the guy that I am currently in battle alongside, JJ Zacharysen.
1:05J.J., how's it going? What's up? First off, I'm the one who just lost power right before the show started, and I
1:12think you have the wrong mic input right now.
1:15Okay. Well, let's... So I would at least make sure that, because it sounds like it's coming from your computer as opposed to the microphone right now.
1:24Okay. But no, things are hectic. There's stuff going on in work life.
1:28There's stuff going on in personal life that's just a lot.
1:31So bear with me as I navigate those things.
1:34If you're a member, if you're a listener, hopefully, you know, in a few weeks, things are totally back to normal.
1:41But I know the podcast feeds are looking a little bit different with the rewind episodes, all that kind of stuff.
1:48So bear with me. Yeah. Do I sound good?
1:51Okay. You sound good now. All right. I mean, we are just all over the place.
1:56And part of that is also because of this humongous project we call the draft guide.
2:01That will release July 10th. So 24 days until the draft guide.
2:05And that gives a little bit of anxiety, but that's okay.
2:08We are breaking this down and starting... This is going to be unlike any other late round draft guide we have had in the past.
2:17We'll say that. And it's going to be really good.
2:20But also, it means a lot more kind of brain power and stuff that we're doing that we haven't done in the past.
2:27We've got Brandon Cadula helping us out. But thoughts on the draft guide?
2:31Yeah. So to give you guys an idea where I'm at, I'm hopefully going to wrap up the wide receiver section here
2:38soon and then move on to talking some tight ends and working on tight ends.
2:43But there's also a whole brand new area of that draft guide where I'm going to be kind of using...
2:50In the past, I think we mentioned this last week a little bit.
2:54But in the past, it's been positional section and then your approach to this year.
2:59Positional section and then your approach to this year.
3:02This year though, it's more so bringing that all together and having a more comprehensive approach to your drafts this season that
3:09brings together all of those different parts, right? And so like you said, it's like laid out a little bit different.
3:16There's brand new content in it, a lot new content.
3:19It needed kind of a refresh and that's exactly what you're getting in this 2026 version.
3:24Okay. And with that being said, we also have the new website that you can go and become a member, late round.com.
3:31Also, you become an all access member for one annual price and get both our draft guide and our rookie prospect guide that we do every year.
3:40And everything else that comes with our membership as far as the discord, the rankings that you get.
3:46So consider becoming an all access member if you haven't already.
3:49And we want to give a shout out to our sponsor, DraftKings.
3:53We talk about the dogo. I had someone message me the other day.
3:57He's like, I love dogo is another marketing guy for another company.
4:01Nice. And I said, well, we'll just run with it then.
4:05It's a draft one, get one promotion with DraftKings.
4:08And so you draft one, you get a bonus entry and you can find that link in the description of this podcast or video that you're watching.
4:16So just know that's a $20 million contest this year.
4:19And we've got the becoming a best ball bro series that is kicked off.
4:24We've got the live streams. I'm actually going to be drafting a live stream tomorrow and Thursday morning.
4:30So make sure you have notifications on for this, JJ.
4:33As far as the best ball scenes, we are getting some news that are kind of affecting some of these ADPs with best ball.
4:41Yeah, for sure. You know, we're still waiting on some guys to be signed and stuff.
4:46But yeah, I mean, like this is in my opinion, like this is a really interesting time to draft best ball lineups
4:53just because you're going to find some good CLV, some really good value in guys that you're drafting late just based on
5:00there's still, you know, a month and a half before things like really get solidified or two months before things really get solidified.
5:08So right now you can you can definitely find some value out there.
5:12Hopefully, you know, like like last year, you know, there was like the Keenan Allen stuff that happened and he he rose,
5:19you know, I think Stefan digs right now is one that will eventually rise in ADP once he signs.
5:25But there's also some just like off the field stuff or there's, you know, one player in particular who keeps posting on Instagram that we'll probably get to.
5:34But yeah, I mean, like I think it's a really interesting time to draft best ball teams.
5:40Yeah, I'm glad you said that JJ because we and do indeed have to get to some news and notes today's fantasy news.
5:47All right, let's start with some unfortunate news out of New Orleans last week about the Chris Alave blood clots.
5:53Again, a lot of these like some of these injuries is just like, all right, I'm not a doctor like and I
6:00don't, you know, I don't pretend to be one.
6:03But you do kind of look at people that are doctors to see what they're saying.
6:09But what's your overall take on the the Chris Alave situation?
6:12Because his ADP is currently falling as well. I mean, it's it's serious stuff.
6:17Anytime you're talking, you know, blood clots or blood clot disorders or whatever the case may be.
6:22I mean, I think that the unfortunate side of this is that we do have to react in probably a slightly negative way.
6:30I was kind of below market with Alave. So I'll probably meet the market a little bit more at this point as
6:37a result of this, because I think that, you know, this is one of those things where I feel like if it
6:44were a serious, serious threat to his playing time, it would be a bigger story and a bigger deal.
6:50And that would have been like released in some way.
6:53But it doesn't seem like that's totally the case.
6:56This is a bigger but this is like one of those injuries.
7:00It's like, OK, like, yes, it sucks whenever these guys like break their ankles and stuff, you know, or like have like
7:07a really bad, you know, ACL tear or something like that.
7:11Like this is like one of those injuries where it's it's not really injury.
7:15It's it's a bigger like just deal to his livelihood, you know, like obviously, you know, I'm not diminishing what happens to
7:22an AC with an ACL tear or anything like that.
7:25But this this is one of those things where it's harder to speculate on because it's not like we see this happen as like a football injury.
7:34So my general thoughts are I hope Alave is good.
7:37Hope he gets well. You know, he went through the concussion stuff kind of last year before the season started.
7:44You know, he stayed healthy, which was great. And he ended up being a fantastic player for the Saints last year.
7:51And I'm hoping I'm hoping for the same result this time around as well.
7:55Yeah. All right. The next one, Rashi Rice, Freed.
7:58I almost went with Freed Rice on this one.
8:01But 30 days is 30 day jail sentence has been served.
8:04So I guess we'll see now what happens as far as like, you know, he had surgery right before he went to jail.
8:12Did you did you see the video that came out?
8:15No. So there's a video of him leaving jail and there's and there's cameras everywhere.
8:20Right. There's people, a couple of people like on camera.
8:23Right. And he ran from them, which, hey, hey, hey.
8:26It's a good sign. Right. You know, like, like, you know, he seems like he, you know, he able to run a
8:33little out route against the reporters, the camera people there and just bolted into a black SUV and he drove off.
8:40But, yeah, I mean, like, hopefully everything's good. I've admittedly from look, I'm a I have to be a fantasy analyst.
8:47I have to see what's going to be best for our fantasy teams.
8:51I do think that in a best ball environment, the dip has been substantial enough to draft Rashi Rice just because, you
8:58know, we've seen them use players in the past that had questionable background slash he himself did.
9:04I don't think that the newest issue of what happened, given what it was.
9:08We said this whenever he was he was arrested again.
9:12It's like the the the thing that we're concerned about is just like the the the mental state you got to be in to, like, make that mistake.
9:21Right. Like to do that and to to, you know, use weed and and and like when you know that you can't like you just cannot do that.
9:30It's not really the thing that he did. It's it's doing that when you knew that you were on probation the way that you were.
9:38With that being said, the actual crime for this is not something that the NFL is like hammering down on at this point.
9:45So I don't know if anything is really going to come of that.
9:49Obviously, the original reason that he was on probation is horrible.
9:53But, you know, what he did this time around wasn't wasn't as like bad from like how, you know, the NFL might view things, yada, yada, yada.
10:02So with that, I do think that he could just end up playing.
10:06You know, he served his time. You just got to hope that the rehab was was OK if you are drafting for she rice.
10:13Yeah. You know, he's his ADP has fallen a little bit as well.
10:18One of those guys. I wonder if it will start climbing back up.
10:22Also, the the Chiefs is not on here, but the Chiefs extended Patrick Mahomes two more years.
10:27Then he's playing until like 2050. Yeah. I mean, I mean, Patrick Mahomes is never going to retire.
10:33But half a half a billion dollars. Yeah. The Rasheed Rice stuff, I think, is different.
10:38You know, we're getting El Oso and chat asking about, you know, when is when is the discipline issues becoming a thing?
10:45It's super concerning for Dynasty. Agreed. If you want to get rid of him in Dynasty, especially because I think in Dynasty,
10:53you have kind of like a closer connection to players in a way where it's like like you root for them more.
11:00If you don't want to deal with this, don't deal with it like you like, you know, like sell them 80 cents
11:07on the dollar and just kind of take your loss and kind of move on that.
11:12You didn't sell them at the peak of where Rice was.
11:15I do think that there's a very real chance that it improves and where he's at currently in the Dynasty landscape improves.
11:23But if you don't want to deal with it anymore, don't deal with it.
11:27I don't think that's like a unreasonable way to approach your own Dynasty roster management, you know.
11:33But but I do think that he's going to play this year.
11:36And, you know, I think that Rasheed Rice is probably an overrated player when you look at his production and what he's
11:44done in fantasy football versus how good he is as a player.
11:47But I think that he's still in this system that just is very beneficial for him to score fantasy points.
11:54And so that's how I'm treating it. And so with him, like realistically, if there were no question marks about Rasheed Rice,
12:01he'd be a very firm middle round to pick very maybe even early round to.
12:06Yeah. Right. And right now on DraftKings, you can get him.
12:09I mean, he's fallen to the late third. Third.
12:12Yeah. So because like that's a lot of equity for what's been going on right now, which is why I've been more OK drafting him.
12:20It might bite me, but it might bite me.
12:23But I do think that it's at least logical.
12:26OK, next we have supplemental Soresby. Brennan Soresby, after all that commotion, after all that drama, he's now back to entering the NFL's supplemental draft.
12:34We haven't seen a guy like him since. Who was it?
12:38Josh Gordon and somebody else. Tyrell Pryor, I think.
12:41I think I saw that. I did too. That's right.
12:44Yeah. And so I think I saw that on Ryan McDowell.
12:47He wrote an article about this because this is putting the NFL in flux.
12:52It's also putting all these dynasty leagues that have already drafted.
12:55Yeah. In flux to like what? What do you do?
12:59I mean, I think that if you because like 90 plus percent of dynasty leagues, I would imagine already had their rookie drafts.
13:06Right. Right. I'm a commission a couple of leagues.
13:09And what I'm doing is I am saying no one can have Soresby this year and he can just be added to the player pool next year.
13:18Now, look, that might mean that he's the 103.
13:21It might mean that he's the 409, you know, that he just doesn't matter at all in drafts next season.
13:27But the reason so I've seen a lot of people talk about having him just be a blind bid player right now.
13:34And the issue I have with that blanket statement is that there's a lot of deep dynasty leagues out there where multiple
13:41people will blow all of their free agent budget on that singular player.
13:46And I don't want the reward to be the tiebreak, which is just waiver order, you know, to be able to claim that guy.
13:53So instead, the way that I'm handling it, people might disagree.
13:57And that's fine. I don't think there's a right answer.
14:00There's not a right or wrong way. Right. Right.
14:03So I know that people are like, oh, this is stupid.
14:06You should be able to bid on him. Fine.
14:09If you want to do that, I don't have a problem with that.
14:14I'm just letting you know my logic. I think that you wait till 2027.
14:18And yes, you're going to have a year of knowing how good or bad he is, what team he's on, all that kind of stuff.
14:26But at least there's an equal chance of anyone wanting to trade up to get him or, you know, just drafting him
14:33straight up, whatever the case may be. It's just a cleaner way of doing it, in my opinion.
14:39Another solution. This was why I was reading the Ryan McDowell ad is or article is because he talked about like a,
14:46not just a blind bit system, but a future pick.
14:49So just like the NFL will sacrifice a future pick.
14:53Yeah. Yeah. Whatever that are, like, I'm sure he's retweeted it or something.
14:57McDowell is the king of this kind of stuff.
15:00Like, yeah. He gives threes. He gives three possible solutions.
15:03That was number one. Yours is number two. Okay.
15:06Yeah. Okay. Yeah. It was, was, was number one, was number one, the free agent budget, just like being able to bid on him as a normal.
15:15No, number one was the, uh, you supplement with like your draft picks.
15:19So someone could say, all right, I will give up my third round draft pick next year for this.
15:25Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah, there's, there's a, there's a lot of ways to do it.
15:30Um, but I would, I mean, look, McDowell is awesome and McDowell is now full-time DLF.
15:35So congrats to him for the retirement from his, uh, teaching job.
15:39And now he gets to be full-time DLF. Yeah.
15:42And so, I mean, we love McDowell. He's a, he's a friend of the show.
15:47Um, and so him, you know, he, he's someone who's done commissioner stuff for years and he's deeper into those kinds of dynasty weeds than I am.
15:56So I'm sure he has better solutions than me, but the, the one that did pop to mind for me, because it's
16:03the easiest as a commissioner, in my opinion, is just be like, nope, we're waiting until 2027 too bad.
16:09This is just the way we're doing it. Um, in the league that you and I are in, I got notification, uh,
16:16in the chat from, uh, the siege, uh, shocker.
16:19Yeah. DFS, former DFS player. And he was like, so are we doing to supplemental draft?
16:24Like the NFL doesn't. And I'm just like, as the commissioner, I'm just like, I don't want, I still want to deal with it right now.
16:32You know, just take, but there's also, I wonder like that, that solution, you know, of course you can say like, I
16:39put up a third, but how, what if someone else has a third?
16:44Like, how do you rule the time? Then you get, I guess, into figuring out, I don't like, I don't know.
16:50I don't know what that, that solution is, but there are teams that are also doing this.
16:56So you've had, you know, people thinking that the Browns should do it.
17:00Um, you know, Brown's head coach is saying not really something I'm interested in.
17:05Our GM might feel differently. Uh, some people are saying the Eagles should with all their picks that they have.
17:11Uh, so one I saw jets. Yes. So it will be interesting.
17:15I bet the jets are favorites right now. If I were to look at, I don't know what a sports book has,
17:22if like DK has the odds or anything like that, but I don't know.
17:27It's going to be interesting from, from my perspective.
17:29It seems like like, look, the one thing I cannot stand are the people who are like, he could have been QB one in this class.
17:38Like, let's, let's slow down. I don't think that was going to happen, but, uh, could he have been QB two in this class?
17:46You know, like, is that a reasonable thing to, I mean, maybe, but probably not.
17:50Cause Simpson went pretty high. Um, but QB three.
17:53Yeah. I mean, he could have been a day to pick without the off the field stuff.
17:59Okay. Um, we avoided some drama with George Pickens reportedly reporting for mandatory mini camp.
18:04So good on George Pickens and we can just put this to bed right now.
18:09Right? JJ. I don't know about that. Um, we'll see.
18:12We'll see what, we'll see what goes down with all that and how much he practices, et cetera, et cetera.
18:18I will say a lot of the trend stuff that I'm working on for the draft guide does like George Pickens.
18:25I also want to tease something else. And that is, I talked about market score on a podcast episode a couple of weeks ago.
18:33I've gotten a lot of feedback from people about how we're talking about market score and how we're displaying market score.
18:40And so next week, my hope, again, there's a lot of stuff going on.
18:44So things can change. Don't hold me to this.
18:47At least this next week or the week after there's going to be a new market score episode because we're changing the
18:54way that we're kind of approaching market score in multiple ways.
18:58We have a little bit different inputs. You know, I kind of introduced the idea and said, this is kind of evolving
19:05and it is and it evolved a lot based on your feedback.
19:09Because I think the way that people were consuming market score was not necessarily the way we wanted people to consume market score.
19:16So our solution is to really approach this similarly as a zap score.
19:20And that's what we're going to be doing. A same 0 to 100 type scale and such.
19:26But I'm going to be doing an episode on that so that we're all on the same page with market score.
19:32And I bring that up because market score really liked and still does, I believe, George Pickens.
19:38And a lot of the trends that I'm looking at for early round wide receivers also like George Pickens because it's based on previous season numbers.
19:46It's not foolproof, of course. But, you know, last year he was really good, like very, very good.
19:52And so we need him to play because I do think that he could be a value if we knew for sure
19:59everything was going to be perfect for George Pickens and we haven't had this like very small sample.
20:05Yes, but like bad results of these players who are holding out and such.
20:10I do think that that Pickens would be a very easy click right now.
20:14There's just some ambiguity. Okay. This was probably the biggest news.
20:18They caught us by surprise. Luca Evans, a beer porter for the Broncos Denver Post, got some posted a few nuggets.
20:24It's a Denver pun for you. But one that R.J.
20:28Harvey suffered a torn labrum in that playoff game against the Patriots and had surgery.
20:32And the other was that J.K. Dobbins nearly had a deal.
20:36J.K. Dobbins had a deal with the Jags and free agency near done, so we're said before Denver re-signed him.
20:42So I want your just your take on how this affects this murky roller coaster filled Denver backfield.
20:48So I believe it was Jeff Mueller. And if it's not, I apologize to whichever.
20:53I'll read what Jeff posted. He put R.J. Harvey where the shoulder labrum was repaired versus debrided.
20:59It shouldn't negatively impact his receiving ability. Okay. There was another Twitter doc, I believe, that was mentioning that we're all sitting
21:06here talking about Bucky Irving and the issues that he's had with his shoulder.
21:10But really, this could be more concerning from a timeline perspective than Bucky Irving's timeline, which I think is kind of interesting
21:17and an interesting juxtaposition based on the way that, you know, things have gone for Irving.
21:22So yeah, I mean, like, I think this should impact things.
21:26I've been right when I start buying more into R.J.
21:29Harvey, like, like right when I start drafting him more and I'm like, oh, I can see this.
21:35I just man, I love ambiguous backfields. Don't get me wrong.
21:39I still think R.J. Harvey has the most upside in that backfield in general, which is why he should have the highest ADP.
21:46I don't buy the narrative out there from people who are like J.K.
21:50Dobbins should be straight up drafted ahead of R.J.
21:53Harvey, because what that misses is, is you're doing that based off of a median outcome, a median projection, which sure, you could probably project J.K.
22:02Dobbins to score more points than R.J. Harvey this year.
22:05I think that's, you know, I think you'd probably still want to project R.J.
22:09You can't just look at last year and say that's going to happen this year when R.J.
22:15Harvey was a rookie. You know, and not only that, it was the first part of his rookie season.
22:21We didn't really see the full-blown tandem and what it would look like when J.K.
22:26Dobbins was fully, fully healthy. And so, like, I just don't think that this is a simple like, oh, just look at what happened last year.
22:34Therefore, it's going to happen this year. So I can understand from a projection standpoint why you might like Dobbins more.
22:41I would disagree still. But sure, if you want to go that route.
22:45But saying that Dobbins should be drafted straight up ahead of Harvey before this injury stuff, and I even think after the
22:52injury stuff, I'm still going to have Harvey ahead.
22:55It just misses the ceiling point. It misses the point of, like, you're in the mid to late rounds where you should
23:02not be worried about floor nearly as much. J.K.
23:05Dobbins is not a pass catcher. He had a 4.2% target share last year, and he was really bad per route run.
23:12It's not like he had a 2.0 yards per route run rate, but he just wasn't being used enough.
23:18He just was not good as a pass catcher.
23:21And quite frankly, he hasn't been an outstanding pass catcher in the NFL from an efficiency standpoint and from a volume standpoint.
23:28And so R.J. Harvey was pretty good as a pass catcher last year, at the very least.
23:34You know, not very good as a runner, but good as a pass catcher.
23:38And that's what we should be really aimed at and focused on when it comes to that point in the draft and
23:45looking for upside, especially in these half and full PPR formats.
23:49So to me, Dobbins is just not someone that I've been clicking very often.
23:54Same. Like, I just... It's a really... Especially in best ball, it's a really hard time to go after a player like
24:01that when there's really good quarterbacks still available. You can make the case for other running backs, you know, like Rashad White types.
24:08You know, like I'd rather just straight up take a chance on Rashad White than J.K.
24:13Dobbins at this point. Yeah. And so I just have a hard time with Dobbins.
24:18You know, I had the opposite problem last year.
24:21I was reffing Dobbins everywhere. But we now have a year of data of him not being deployed consistently as a pass catcher and R.J.
24:29Harvey being really efficient in that role. So, you know, I think that Harvey's ADP will fall and it should fall a little bit.
24:37But I'm probably still going to have Harvey ahead of Dobbins from a rankings perspective.
24:42Okay. What about the news that the Jags are trying to sign J.K.
24:46Dobbins? Does that impact your all roads lead to Bashal Tootin stance?
24:50I think it's a bigger indictment on Chris Rodriguez because they did go after the early down guy and it was Rodriguez.
24:57And clearly he was not their first option when the whole narrative behind Chris Rodriguez was that he was a Liam Cohen guy.
25:04Oh, I like this. Yeah, I like it. If he's such a Liam Cohen guy, then why did they not have him as their 1A choice?
25:13You know, that's my big problem with it. I think Bashal Tootin is still a very good pick in the fifth round.
25:20Okay. All right. Brenna Iyuk weighs in as, you know, we have a weekly Brennan Iyuk.
25:25Kind of where is he? We should probably put him on the available because he's available.
25:30But we talked about a few weeks ago about the people that were taking these pictures of Iyuk and blowing them up
25:37and making him look like really overweight. Well, he weighed himself and he put a picture of the of his weight.
25:44He just wants people to know. Yeah. He just wants people to know that.
25:48Hey, wait. Let me guess his weight. Do you have his weight?
25:52Do you know his number? I think I remember it.
25:56Yeah. It's going to start with a two. Okay.
25:58Yeah. But it's going to be it's going to be low because he's a he's a thick he's a thicker wide.
26:05When he came out, he's like a yak guy.
26:08Right. Like he's a so I'm going to say it's I'm going to say he's 209.
26:13You're really, really close. Like you're a pound. Okay.
26:16Yeah. Over. It's 208. Okay. Yeah. I can. I can believe that.
26:20I mean, like that's that's not shocking to me that he would be because because he runs the risk if he's too small and posting that.
26:28Right. That was my logic. Like he's not going to post like I'm 230 because then everyone's like, oh, my God, you're so out of shape.
26:37And then if you post like I'm 189, then that just means that he hasn't been lifting and he's not.
26:43And he did have sandals on and this and he posts it's a it's a video.
26:48And so he posts it like you can see his physique in the mirror and then he weighs himself.
26:55So could be 207. But he looks in good shape, basically.
26:58That's good. Good for him. Look, he's living his best life right now.
27:02Brandon. Apparently. All right. We got more Brian Thomas steam.
27:06It's be reporter saying that he was the MVP of Jags practices so far.
27:10And I don't know, man. It feels like there's a flippening coming with him and Parker Washington.
27:16I had the thought earlier this week. This is this is the show where I get out my like intrusive thoughts about work here for it.
27:24I had this thought earlier this week of like, you know, there's been rumors of them trading Brian Robinson for like a
27:31year now, like maybe not a year, but at least like, you know, eight or eight months or so.
27:37I had Thomas. Brian Thomas. What did I say?
27:40Brian Robinson? Yeah. Yeah. You're still stuck in running back territory.
27:44Yeah. Sorry, guys. I had the thought that like, what if this is just steam for a potential deal?
27:50Like, what if this is? I don't believe that.
27:53I don't actually believe that guys, but I'm saying like, what if, you know, if we want to be a little dramatic about this?
28:00Yeah. What if this is just like the Jags doing some favorable PR to get them off the team?
28:07I think he's a good player though. I mean, I liked him as a prospect.
28:11I liked him after year one. I didn't, I didn't, I wasn't like in love.
28:16I remember going back in my rankings. I actually was like one or two spots lower than the market last year with
28:23Brian Thomas, but I still had him as like a one, two turn guy.
28:28Um, I, my issue with Thomas is that I really do like Parker Washington.
28:32Yeah. And a lot of the trends do like Parker Washington.
28:36Most of them, uh, certainly more than they do Brian Thomas.
28:39And so, you know, I'm, I'm drafting both. I think that you just throw darts at this Jags.
28:45Like, in my opinion, you get exposure to the Jags wide receiver room through best ball this year.
28:51And like, if you're, you know, a lot of people listening right now are playing.
28:56Both best ball and season long. And then in season long, you just draft Trevor Lawrence.
29:01Like that's your, that's, that's your exposure to capture all of that stuff.
29:05And maybe that's a cop out, but I think it's a pretty reasonable approach.
29:10Yeah. I still, um, this was an article written by, uh, John Shipley.
29:14Who's been crushing it. And he has crushed it for years for Jack.
29:18Yeah. People are just now kind of starting to, to know who, who he is.
29:23So shout out to John Shipley. But he was saying that the, uh, the MVP, he said, really, all of them are
29:30doing great, but the MVP has been Brian Thomas Jr.
29:33That's why I think if there continues to be steam there right now, they're going really close.
29:39Like on draft Kings, I could see there being an eventual flip.
29:43Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, he, I think, I also think that Brian Thomas's game is maybe not in DK as much,
29:50but you know, cause it's full PPR. But I do think that his game is pretty conducive to, to best ball as well.
29:57All right. Uh, on the flip side, getting some rough, rough practice reports out of Titans practice.
30:03You can't be shocked by this. Uh, I'm a little shocked.
30:06I'm a little shocked. I thought that it would be a little smoother.
30:10There are, however, people have pointed out that we were doing the same sort of Monday morning quarterback analysis last year with
30:18Drake may, uh, and Caleb Williams too. Was that Williams as well?
30:21I remember sending a tweet in, in late July or something that said like, you guys can all say, like, I'm still
30:29drafting bears is what I basically said. Uh, but yeah, I mean, look, cam word, you gotta, this is very much a,
30:36like, if you take the extremes on the film versus analytics debate, like the analytics people are going to say cam word
30:43is terrible and the film people are going to say, no, no, no, no.
30:47There's definitely traits here. Right. Yeah. I think that if, if his costs were higher in best ball and season long, I would be out.
30:55Uh, I think I'm more out than in from a dynasty perspective, but I don't think that his cost is that egregious
31:02to have a strong opinion on, on what's going on with cam word.
31:07That being said, I don't think the expectation should be that he's going to be phenomenal.
31:12As a, as a quarterback, just because simply because his year one numbers were really, really bad.
31:17Like, uh, like completely objectively, his year one numbers were bad, right?
31:21You're then using situation coaching, et cetera, as the excuse, which, you know, it's funny that I published the gray area fantasy
31:28football episode today, because it's exactly what I was talking about with Roma duns a last year, right?
31:34Where you're not dismissing. Like this is, you don't have to take a stand of like his metrics are all that matter.
31:41And you forget context. We're only going to look at his metrics, but then you shouldn't take the stance that and say,
31:48Oh, we just dismiss his metrics because he's in a bad situation because there's been a lot of rookie quarterbacks in bad
31:55situations that have done well, you know, that have not posted horrific numbers in year one.
32:01And it is generally telling us to how good that player's career is going to go.
32:06So that's why I'm looking at this with a very, in a very nuanced way, I'm trying to not overreact to what
32:13we saw from the numbers perspective, but I do know that they still matter.
32:17You know, that it's still some subs, some substance there.
32:21Um, I like what they've done in adding the pieces that they've added.
32:25Like, I think that the, the cohesiveness of that wide receiver room is, is very much there and it's better than what
32:32they had, like way better than what they had last year.
32:35Uh, but yeah, I mean, like, I think that there's definitely risk involved with camp Ward.
32:41I think he's so fine in best ball. I'm drafting him in best ball dynasty.
32:45I'm a little bit if you're on just because, you know, some people really like him.
32:51Uh, but I'm not like shocked by the reports that are going on.
32:55Joe Bobani says, Oh, careful with your gray area talks.
32:58JJ. Yeah. I'm talking about, uh, last year in the whole gray area.
33:02People don't, some people don't understand. People don't like, people don't like the, uh, yeah, they don't like the nuance.
33:09Yeah. Uh, Matt says he's here for the hot takes.
33:12All right. Uh, the opposite of hots, pros and Jaden Reed.
33:15I just want just to get to see if you are nervous at all about this.
33:21About the fact that Matthew golden is playing in two wide receiver sets.
33:25Yes. I think that's the expectation. That's why I've been saying I've been drafting Matthew golden.
33:30You know, I, I, I like Jaden Reed as a potential breakout.
33:34So the difference between Jaden Reed and Josh downs, for instance, is.
33:38You know, if you want to just group them together, except in grouping them together, all off season, Josh downs doesn't have.
33:45Anyone truly difficult or potentially difficult in his way.
33:48And two wide receiver sets this year, right? It's Nick Westbrook, Akina and Alec Pierce is hurt.
33:53We talked about that last week. So Josh downs has a lot of opportunity, not in as good of an offense.
34:00You would argue because Matt LaFleur consistently has been giving them good offensive production in green Bay.
34:05So that's a little bit of a downtick, but yeah, Josh downs in a better spot than Jaden Reed to play those two wide receiver sets.
34:14My argument with Jaden Reed is the fact that he's been very, very good per route run throughout his career.
34:20And now he might get more opportunity to play on the outside because Matthew golden didn't show us that much his rookie year.
34:28Right. So there's a, it's, it's a more climbable depth chart than what Jaden Reed has experienced in his history.
34:34Right. I don't think that's a lock or that means that he's definitely going to be playing in two wide receiver sets.
34:41And this is why I'm fine in redraft where his cost is very appetizing.
34:46Still Matthew golden and best ball. My gosh, you can get them still in the double digit rounds.
34:52Yeah. And that's when like, I think that's a great price for a player like golden who we've seen some guys like
34:59not do anything as rookies and still give you like wide receiver three wide receiver to production.
35:04I just don't think that the ceiling is going to be there for Matthew golden, but that's fine.
35:10In, in this kind of environment and in a best ball environment, given his cost.
35:15Right. So all of those Packers wide receivers, in my opinion, are draftable right now.
35:20This doesn't really deter me. I hope it lowers Jaden Reed's ADP because if the opposite report were happening, Jaden Reed would
35:27be like a seventh round pick pretty comfortable, like a very firm early seventh, like six, seven turn type player.
35:33You know? Yeah. Oh my gosh. My, my, my, I thought we were over this.
35:38I thought we were over this. I thought this was done anyway.
35:42That's where I'm at with the Packers wide house.
35:45All right. Uh, six, seven, many, many CV eight said a book is going higher than a dude's and drafts this year.
35:52JJ remains on top. That's not what that episode.
35:55I know. Oh, I know. This is, yeah. Yeah.
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37:36Lots of wide receiver talk and we're not going to stop now.
37:40It's today's data. Today's data. Yeah. This is a chart directly from this year's draft guide about early round wide receivers, top
37:4718 wide receivers, and looking at their previous year first downs per route run rate and seeing how well they, so this
37:55is what's going to be different in this year's guide also is that I'm looking at players who underperform versus expectation and not just overperform.
38:03So I've always done, you know, greater than zero points per game above expected, greater than two, greater than four.
38:09I did greater than six last year. I'm just doing up to greater than four this year, but I'm also looking at
38:16how well they do in terms of floor outcomes.
38:19And that matters a lot more, especially in these early rounds where we're more concerned about the floor outcomes.
38:25But there's a really nice, like linear, like relationship of the higher the first downs per route run number, the better the
38:32hit rate, especially if the previous year first downs per route run is above 12%.
38:37You know, yes, it's arbitrary. You can bucket these and bin these in a lot of different ways, but you have pretty
38:44comparable sample sizes for the most part, aside from that smaller group where they're less than 8%.
38:50So this says 12% or more of their routes run result in first downs.
38:54And you can see the average difference against ADP expectation for the guys who have a 12% rate or higher is 1.15, which is fantastic.
39:02It's really, really good. The other groups are below zero, which means they play below expected on average.
39:08The, the group that has a really high first downs per route run rate, the previous season play well above that expectation.
39:15Now, unfortunately there's only three guys who were above that mark in the top 18 this year could be four.
39:22If people just liked Terry McLaurin a little bit more, but there's another, I think, notch in a favorable direction for Terry
39:29McLaurin, but the three wide receivers are Jackson Smith and Jigba Puka Nakua and Amon Ross St.
39:34Brown. So it doesn't really help you find values per se, but I do think from an ARSB perspective, it makes, should
39:41make you feel more confident that he's at least the wide receiver for and drafts this year that you should like, I don't think first rounder.
39:50Yeah. I would not be just because of the safety.
39:53Like the, what we saw from Justin Jefferson last year area enough for me to just say, look, I think ceiling wise, Amon Ross St.
40:01Brown is not that much different than Justin Jefferson and Amon Ross St.
40:05Brown has the stability. We just have this predictability aspect with him that we just don't have with Justin Jefferson right now.
40:12I would not be drafting Justin Jefferson over Amon Ross St.
40:16Brown, but Amon Ross St. Brown, I think is still like, I've taken them plenty over Jonathan Taylor in some of these
40:23best ball drafts, just to, if I wanted to get wide receiver heavy, you know, and get a different kind of build.
40:30So I think ARSB is in a really good spot and this is just one of those metrics that, that helps show that.
40:38All right, let's get onto the main event. The late round main event.
40:42All right, JJ, we're talking alarming stats from 2025, starting with DJ Moore.
40:46Everything from DJ Moore's 2025 is alarming. Like realistically, the one thing that's not, and it has nothing to do with 2025
40:53is that he's in a new environment and he could thrive in that environment for sure.
40:58I've talked about this before on the show. A guy who's better when the play breaks down.
41:04And that's exactly what the Buffalo offense kind of thrives in because of Josh Allen being their quarterback.
41:09But if you just look at the numbers, all this previous season numbers are so horrifically frightening.
41:15Okay. The one that I'm calling out here is his 1.22 yards per out run rate among top 40 wide receivers by
41:22ADP since 2014 with a yard per out run rate below 1.5, which is significantly higher than where DJ Moore's at.
41:29They underperformed versus expected. I realized I copied and pasted underperformed twice here and it's spelled incorrectly.
41:34So that's cool. But this is why we do the show the way that we do, right?
41:40I'll get it. Okay. Kitchen will fix it. They underperform versus expectation.
41:44The guys who are below a 1.5 yards per out run rate drafted as top 40 wide receivers by 1.2 PPR points per game.
41:51The guys who were below that were in the top 30 and below that mark.
41:56So again, top 40, you're getting some like questionable wide receiver profiles in general.
42:01And maybe sometimes they don't have very good previous season numbers, but the market is boosting them into the top 40 and they're doing that for a reason.
42:10But then if you're in the top 30, if you're in the top 20, et cetera, et cetera, these numbers become even
42:17more important because the competition within that range is greater, right?
42:20And so when you look at top 30 wide receivers by ADP and guys who are below that 1.5 yards per out
42:28run mark, they underperform versus expectation on average by 2.8 PPR points per game, which is horrifically bad.
42:33It's very, very bad. We're talking like if DJ Moore is expected to score 13 PPR points per game, he's going to score 10, right?
42:41Based on what that's saying. So it's just another reason why I'm just nervous about DJ Moore.
42:47You know, I think situation can only take them so far.
42:50I he's just a, he's a very, very scary pick right now.
42:54Okay. Let's go to someone who had a really good year last year and his ADP is pretty high this year.
43:01Matthew Stafford. Yeah. I wanted to throw this one in there because you're going to see that Matthew Stafford at a 17.7% touchdown rate.
43:09And you're going to say to yourself, well, that's not a bad thing.
43:13Well, it is when you look at it versus expectation the following year, there's been 16 quarterbacks since 2014 with a, with
43:20a touchdown rate in their previous season above 7%.
43:23Those guys about underperformed wrong again, huh? No, spelled expectation wrong.
43:27It's all right. We're good. Look, I've, I've had a, I've had a rough one the last week.
43:32They've underperformed versus expectation by 1.7 points per game.
43:35There's only been four of them in the previous season who had less than two points per game via rushing.
43:42Cause we know Matthew Stafford's not going to do anything on the ground, right?
43:46He had like 0.05 or something points per game rushing two of those four played five or more points per game below expected.
43:54Now Stafford's ADP, because the market has gotten smarter is not as high as it could have been based on what we've
44:01seen historically from these types of players. But with that being said, I do think that Stafford's one of the big call
44:08it's because in best ball, it's a little bit different.
44:11Like he's not like, I think his, his, his ADP is fine and not like it's whatever.
44:17And you're stacking, it's just a different environment. But I would almost guarantee you that when you do your home league drafts
44:24and your office drafts and stuff like that, this, this, this August staffer is going to be a fringe top 10 guy, if not a top 10 guy.
44:33And that's when you know that you should probably be avoiding him.
44:37All right. Next we have Kyle pits. So Kyle pits, I feel like we remember, I mean, I certainly remember him for
44:44his playoff performance last year because it got me into the final of the, of the DK final.
44:50Right. So Kyle pits forever in my heart, but, but we can't deny that Drake London being sidelined was very helpful to Kyle pits is overall outcome.
44:58He had, he had 9.6 PPR points per game before Drake London's injury, which is nothing to write home.
45:04You can do that via streaming, right? During that split 21% target share.
45:09Good. Not fantastic. Not like amazing 19% targets per outrun rate, which is again, just fine.
45:14And then from week 12 on when Drake London was out, Kyle pits averaged a 27% target share.
45:20He had a 24% targets per outrun rate and 16.3 PPR points per game.
45:24One of those was 45 points, which definitely, you know, skews us a little bit, but he was way, way better without Drake London than with Drake London.
45:33I think we got to keep that in mind as we're drafting him this year.
45:38All right. On to Kenneth Walker. So Kenneth Walker had a, had a spike two years ago in receiving work.
45:44But every other year of his career, he's been sort of a subpar receiver from a volume perspective.
45:50Right. And so last year he had three and a half receiving points per game.
45:55And if you look at top 18 running backs historically who have scored between zero and four PPR points per game in
46:02the previous season, four to eight, eight plus this was in the guide last year, but it's in the guide again this year.
46:10The guys who are in the zero to four range have underperformed versus expectation by far at the highest rate.
46:16And they also have shown by far the lowest ceiling.
46:19Only 6% of them have outperformed ADP expectation by four more points per game the following year.
46:25Right. The crazy thing is, is that in the next table that you guys can see here, if you take out Jonathan
46:32Taylor and Derek Henry from this data set, which there's six of these instances where those guys have been part of the
46:39data set, then in the zero to four group, all of a sudden you realize, Oh, this is actually just weighed towards
46:46Derek Henry and Jonathan Taylor to the most prolific rushers that we've seen in the NFL in this recent era.
46:53Right. So basically Kenneth Walker, in my opinion, I I've cooled off on him a little bit over the last month because
47:00I do think there's a chance that they use like an Amari Di Mercado and Emmett Johnson or whomever to play a little bit of a receiving role.
47:09Um, and there's reason for that because they like, he's going to get a ton of work on the ground.
47:15And I just don't know, like, it might be a better thing for real football than it is fantasy football.
47:22You also continue to be cautious with this next player, Michael Wilson.
47:25I don't get it, man. I just, I, I don't, I don't, I don't get Michael Wilson.
47:31I mean, he could, he could certainly just be incredibly good and just ruin me and make me look like an idiot.
47:38But in a split, there's been three games, there were three games last year with Jacoby Bursette and with Marvin Harrison jr
47:45running at least 80% of the team's routes in those three games.
47:49Michael Wilson averaged 7.8 PPR points per game. He scored seven, 9.1 and 7.4 PPR points in those three games.
47:55He had a 14% target share in those three games.
47:59That is not usable fantasy production. It's just that when Marvin Harrison jr was sidelined or when he wasn't playing a ton
48:06because of the appendicitis stuff and him coming by, he had that like foot, I think last year, that's when Michael Wilson thrived.
48:13So Marvin Harrison jr is seemingly back and healthy.
48:16And that scares me about what we could see with Michael Wilson.
48:20The difference between Michael Wilson and Parker Washington, in my opinion, is that the injury for Marvin Harrison jr allowed Michael Wilson
48:27to see a lot of volume, but he wasn't that efficient with that volume.
48:32Like his yards per route run was 1.59 last year, Parker Washington, when Travis Hunter got hurt, got more opportunity.
48:38But I think it showed the Jags that he's actually really good because he was incredibly efficient while playing alongside Brian Thomas and Jacoby Myers.
48:46And so I think that's the main difference between Parker Washington and Michael Wilson, aside from the environment, quarterbacks, I'm in the court.
48:54Yeah. Like that's the thing with Michael Wilson. Like they could be starting Carson Beck at the end of the year.
49:00Very, it could be an anemic offense potentially at the end of the year.
49:05So I think that this split should make you feel less confident about Michael Wilson next year.
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50:52Where to next? Let's get on to this guy.
50:55It makes me a little bit nervous. Javante Williams, the cover boy for today.
50:59Yeah. So Javante Williams, like I'm going through all of the early round stuff, you know, for these running max and looking
51:06at trends and there's one trend where he looks okay.
51:10And you guys can see that in the draft guide, but a lot of them, 90% of them it's like, cause it's so receiving focused.
51:18He just was not a good receiver last year.
51:21He had 0.4 yards per outrun. 17 running backs ranked outside the top 12, but through RB 36 had less than a
51:280.6 yards per out run rate since 2014 with a minimum of 50 routes run.
51:33So you're looking at RB 13 through 36. There's been 17 guys who had a previous season yards per outrun below 0.6 with at least 50 routes run.
51:42Only one of them outperform expectation by two or more PPR points per game.
51:46The average underperformed by one and a half PPR points per game.
51:50Now I think that like, if we're being completely honest about Javante Williams and you could maybe argue David Montgomery as well
51:57with this argument, but if you're being completely objective, people are drafting both of those players simply because they're projected to see a lot of volume.
52:06I don't think they're drafting them because they're unbelievable talents at the position.
52:10And historically, sometimes that works out, but more often than not, it doesn't work out to the degree in which you want it to work out.
52:18I think that Williams is a safe bet to be, to, to match ADP.
52:23I just don't think he's an easy bet to say he's going to be a top 10 running back in fantasy football.
52:30And in that range, there's a lot of good wide receivers.
52:33There are some other really good high-end running backs, you know, some of the year two guys.
52:39We got Josh Jacobs now who has fallen. Yeah, right.
52:42Josh Jacobs has obviously like that. I've had a harder time clicking Javante Williams because of that, even though I fully understand,
52:49you know, why he's being drafted where he is.
52:52And I understand that there is at least a really comfortable floor in drafting Williams.
52:57Yeah. I'm just ready for Jadon Blue to come in and just a year after we were all in, just ruin all our Javante Williams years.
53:05I think that there's a possibility that like, if you're thinking to yourself, like, where could this go south for Javante Williams?
53:12Like, how could he not, you know, live up to expectation?
53:16And the way that he wouldn't is that they have just a guy like Jadon Blue who's able to take on some
53:23receiving work and just be like, get enough of that work that it hurts Javante Williams that much.
53:29You know, like, if Jadon Blue is a 7% target share player, that ruins Javante Williams.
53:34Like I said, I just can't wait for it.
53:37I probably should just draft some insurance shares of Jadon Blue just in case he does go off and be like, okay, we're there.
53:45All right. Last but not least, Lad McConkie. So I like Lad McConkie this year, but going through his numbers last year,
53:52looking at trends, all that, it's not the cleanest, like obvious, most obvious pick in the world.
53:57You know, there's some things, especially his first downs per out run rate, which was only 6.2% last year, that is very alarming.
54:05And we're looking at alarming stats on today's show.
54:08So there's been 28 top 36 wide receivers who had 300 or more routes in their previous season with a sub 7%
54:15first downs per run, first downs per route run rate since 2014.
54:19They underperformed versus expectation on average by 1.6 points per game.
54:22No player outperformed by more than 2.2 points per game.
54:25I think that was Debo Samuel in a year where he was getting work done via his legs, right?
54:31Like he was getting rushing work done. And so like, it does scare me a little bit about Lad McConkie, about how, how not great his 2025 was.
54:40And I'm trying to ground myself within that context and not get too carried away with where I'm ranking McConkie here in 2026.
54:48Like, I think that there's a very real chance by the time August hits that the market is boosting him and boosting
54:55him and boosting him to like, you know, we, we see this every year with certain players.
55:00Like, I think it could happen with Luther Burden too, which scares me because I really, really love Luther Burden, but it
55:08could, you know, you got to stay grounded and not get too carried away with these like situations and players.
55:14But Conkie was a lot easier to draft when it was like, you know, a lot of people just like not caring
55:21about him until like the mid late fourth round, but it's, it's, he's now kind of at the top of that tier
55:28and it makes it a little bit more alarming and scarier because of what he did last season.
55:34Okay. Does the, the QJ stuff, it's, it's making me a little bit nervous.
55:39It's making me a little bit nervous too, because I think QJ, here's the thing with QJ.
55:44He's not a fantastic all around wide receiver, but when he came out and what he can do in the NFL is yards after the catch.
55:52And I think that they're going to, they're going to deploy him in a way where he's going to be able to
56:00maximize that skillset and potentially thrive and like be a, a really good pick himself.
56:04And then Trey Harris is sitting back there as a, you know, what if he gets a little bit more work?
56:11So like, I don't like, I think the lad McConkie, the ceiling appeal is certainly there, but I do also think that
56:18there's a ceiling appeal for a lot of wide receivers in that range.
56:22And the floor is certainly a little bit scary from McConkie too.
56:26Speaking of good, just going back to Javante Williams, we just had some breaking news that Zemir White is working out for the Cowboys.
56:34Well, that makes me like Javante Williams even more than forget everything I just said about Javante Williams.
56:40If Zemir White is his competition, then we're good to go, baby.
56:44You're back to all in. Keep the chief made fun of my pronunciation of Jaden blue.
56:49I said, J Don, it's one of those things where you haven't said the name out loud in a while.
56:55No. Hey, we'll get it back. We'll get it back.
56:59Let's, let's move on though. This is a good segment.
57:02You do need to get, you do need to be alarmed at these stats, but that doesn't, that doesn't mean that you're
57:09like not in on some of these players or see like the upside, like you mentioned with these.
57:15Some of them I'm definitely fading and are at least like, like, you know, like I'm not drafting much Michael Wilson.
57:21I'm not drafting a ton of Javante Williams right now, just based on what we just said.
57:27I like Michael Williams is more of a fade than like Javante is for me, like Stafford in a regular season, long league.
57:34I'm not going to be going after I do in stacks, you know, if I get Puka or Devante Adams or something.
57:42So like, I would say that the majority of these players are more out than in, but there are some players like
57:49McConkie for instance, where I'm still probably more in than out, despite what we saw from his numbers last year.
57:55All right, let's wrap this up again. If you haven't already, please subscribe to the late round channel and we value your feedback.
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58:08Another banger newsletter for Brandon Cadula and, uh, is happening this week.
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58:30Still kind of going through some stuff like we said.
58:33Um, but, but expect like the schedule and everything to be back to normal.
58:38Like once the draft guide is out, it's just a, you know, fortunately this is all happening when it's not really football season.
58:45There's not that much going on. Um, and you know, like I said, there's just been some stuff going on off the
58:53field for me, um, that, that I'm, I'm, you know, handling and, uh, there's, there's stuff, you know, the draft guy, just a lot of work.
59:01So, so bear with me during the next couple of weeks.
59:04You have, uh, tons of grace from us and, uh, just know that when this thing comes out, people will be appreciative of it.
59:12And it's a, it's, it should be a really good tool for your drafts this year.
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