NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Saturday, July 4, 2026

Been routinely clicking Jordan Mason in the 120s (18% exposure, ~2.25x above market) He’s cheap but an extremely viable way to bet on the Vikings bounce back. His role as the early down grinder/goal line back in this MIN offense was pretty useless last year considering how bad said offense was. Mason has been very efficient for multiple years now (top 5 among ALL RBs in YPC, explosive rate, and YACo/Att since 2021 per @​FantasyPtsData). Even if he has some limitations (pass-catching, top-end...

Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t appear happy with Jayden Daniels 😬

Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t appear happy with Jayden Daniels 😬

Surprised at the sentiment in the replies, this is pretty comfortably Gibbs for me. Trading a bunch of relatively replaceable and/or uncertain pieces for a top ~5 asset (I’m above market on Olave too). Give me the clear best piece here, and I’ll worry about the depth afterwards.

Who would you rather have in fantasy next season? De’Von Achane Ashton Jeanty

Who would you rather have in fantasy next season? De’Von Achane Ashton Jeanty

TRUE OR FALSE - Chase Brown will finish this season as a Top 10 fantasy RB.

What if Emeka Egbuka’s rookie season was flipped?

“The arrival of Montgomery as the lead running back…should allow Marks to stay fresh in a complementary role that should involve a lot of opportunities to catch passes out of the backfield.”

Implied new QB situation; Shough is starting for Saints in 2026. One comment notes 'new quarterback too' as potential downside.

Started half of 2025 season; threw to flats frequently. Shough took over and threw downfield more, which could open passing lanes for Etienne.

WR1 in Kellen Moore offense; received 156 targets in prior Moore system. Community expects Olave and Tyson to remain primary targets, limiting RB volume.

One comment asks if Etienne signing is bad for Neal; no substantive response. Neal received 19 targets in 2025 under Moore.

Cut by Saints to save money; played one full game with Shough (3 catches, 32 yards) before injury. His departure opens backfield for Etienne but also removes the elite pass-catching RB that Moore historically prioritizes. Community notes Kamara's prime was under Sean Payton (different coaching staff), not Moore.

Underhill calls him Saints' X-factor; community skeptical of Kamara-esque ceiling. Moore's historical RB target share: 13.6–18.5% (2019–2025); his RB1s average ~60 targets. Etienne likely gets 60 targets (8th most among RBs in 2024), second-most of his career. Current ADP ~39 (RB18); consensus is solid RB2 value, not RB1. Moore's offenses funnel targets to WR1s (Olave 156, Tyson) and WR2s far more than RBs. Shough as new QB may open playbook vs. Kamara-less 2025, but Moore's track record suggests Etienne won't buck trend of limited RB receiving volume.

Who you draft on July 4th says everything about you. Me? I took David Montgomery. You know, the back runner who literally plays in red, white, and blue. But no go ahead with your wIdE rECEiVeRs

Bullish commenter argues 'we've never seen a full season of Jordan Love and Jacobs healthy together yet' and sees 'untapped upside' in that pairing. Suggests Jacobs could deliver round 1 value if healthy.

Mentioned as example of player who resolved muscle imbalance issue with new doctor this offseason (similar to Jacobs' new approach). Also mentioned as depressed ADP target alongside Kraft for Packers stack.

Multiple comments cite Lloyd as significant competition for Jacobs' touches if he can stay healthy. Packers staff reportedly high on Lloyd; one Packers fan notes concern about Lloyd eating into Jacobs' workload. One commenter sarcastically questions whether any Packers fan has hope Lloyd stays healthy, suggesting injury history is a known issue.

OP claims Jacobs fell from 2nd/3rd round to 5th due to legal uncertainty, citing attorney analysis that Wisconsin mandatory arrest policy and DA delay favor him; both charge-decline and charge-filed scenarios likely keep him on field. Community disputes 'massive value' framing: most report he's going 3rd/4th round (not 5th) in actual drafts; debate whether that's fair given age 28, declining efficiency (4.0 YPC, no 100-yard games since Nov 2024), high mileage, and Packers OL regression. Some see legitimate 4th-round value; others cite injury history, receiving limitations (2 career rec TDs, <40 receptions since 2022), and moral concerns. Minority bullish take emphasizes tape quality and u...

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers, TE Year 3 - Every reception

Tucker Kraft remains our generation’s Gronk <

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders, TE Year 2 - Every reception

Travis Etienne had a career year in Jacksonville with 296 touches and was a major ADP hit last year; he has since steamed up in ADP to around running back 15 after signing with the New Orleans Saints. Dave Klug is neutral on Etienne, noting he has mixed him in drafts but finds himself preferring other running backs like Javante Williams and Cam Akers in the same range. Etienne's upside is limited by Alvin Kamara's presence on the Saints roster; with Kamara getting paid what he gets paid, the Saints will not keep him on the bench, which constrains Etienne's offensive role.

The co-host prefers Omarian Hampton over Kenneth Walker, indicating stronger conviction in Hampton's draft value at the running back position.

Dave Klug prefers Javante Williams over Travis Etienne in the running back ADP range, indicating stronger conviction in Williams' draft value at that tier.

When asked to choose between Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown at running back, the co-host prefers Chase Brown 'very easily,' indicating stronger conviction in Brown's draft value relative to Walker.

The co-host notes that Alvin Kamara does not want to leave New Orleans and will remain on the roster; with Kamara getting paid what he gets paid, the Saints will not keep him on the bench, which limits Travis Etienne's upside in the offense.

Dave Klug notes that Brashard Smith, a former wide receiver, will not be as much of a threat in the Kansas City offense with Kenneth Walker's arrival. Klug was bullish on Smith last year but now views him as a lower-priority option in the backfield, unlikely to mix in significantly with Walker as the focal point of the Chiefs offense.

Kenneth Walker is a top-15 RB in ADP across all formats after signing with Kansas City. Over the last two seasons, he averaged 18.7 PPG in 11 games when playing 60%+ of snaps and now has the backfield to himself after Seattle's Zack Charbanet usage. Kansas City's coaching staff plans to utilize him in the screen game as a pass-catcher. Dave Klug projects Walker will have the most touches by a Kansas City Chiefs running back since Jamal Charles, estimating around 300 touches, with Andy Reid scheming plays for him and Walker becoming the offensive focal point if he stays healthy. Klug positions Walker as the 2026 version of 2024 Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry.

Dave Klug cautions against overvaluing Kenneth Walker by making a Saquon Barkley comparison, noting that too many people are getting ahead of themselves with that comp and that Walker is not a Barkley-caliber player. Klug prefers Kenneth Walker to Saquon Barkley, indicating he views Walker as the better draft value despite Barkley's established production; Klug frames this as preferring 'the new hotness over the older running back.'

Trey Tucker is more versatile than commonly realized, running big boy routes last year. His role could mirror the Rasheed Shaheed role from Clint Kubiak's New Orleans season, positioning him as a potential over-the-top threat in the Raiders' passing game. Dave Klug notes Tucker could have spike weeks in the Kubiak offense; he had a 40-point PPR game last season, offering ceiling upside despite inconsistency. Available in the WR60-65 range on Underdog.

Brock Bowers is positioned as the clear top target earner for Las Vegas with a projection of 180 targets in the offense. The failed Max Crosby trade (Ravens pulled out) elevated Bowers' ranking significantly, as the Raiders lost their chance to draft a WR1 in the first round. Dave Klug ranks him in the top 10 overall and calls him one of the best clicks in drafts, with a massive edge at the tight end position across PPR, Underdog, DraftKings, NFC, Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo formats. Klug prefers Bowers over Kenneth Walker at the draft turn, particularly in tight end premium formats like FFPC, and advocates for anchoring with Bowers in round one and then using Kenneth Walker in round two. Klug enthusiastically endorses Bowers 'to the moon, wherever you can get him,' indicating strong conviction in his draft value.

Brian Thomas Jr. is positioned as a potential big-time touchdown scorer option that could be drafted later than Parker Washington, offering touchdown upside in that range.

Dave Klug prefers Carnell Tate over Mike Evans in the same ADP range, positioning him alongside Christian Watson as an exciting draft option with more upside than the aging veteran.

Dave Klug fades Mike Evans in San Francisco despite positive coach speak and maintained separation ability. Core concern: Shanahan's offense is predicated on receivers creating after the catch, which is not Evans' strength—he ranked 121st of 122 qualifying receivers in yards after the catch per reception last year, behind only Kahan Booty. Additional red flags: Tampa Bay letting him walk in free agency at age 33 after over a decade suggests the team doesn't believe he has much left; the broken 1,000-yard streak removes late-season target force-feeding that kept it alive. Klug prefers Carnell Tate and Christian Watson in the same ADP range, and explicitly states Evans is on his fade list and he has not been drafting him in managed redraft formats.

Dave Klug identifies Michael Pittman Jr. as the best bet to lead the Steelers in targets and catches at a very cheap price tag. Pittman is described as a gritty contested-ball catcher who works across the middle, earns opportunities through blocking, and is a better fit for the Steelers offense than DK Metcalf. Historical production: 156 targets in 2023, 141 targets in 2022; averaged 11.9 PPG last year and has been WR26+ in PPG in four of the last five years despite a disappointing 2024 season. At 28 years old, Klug believes he still has gas in the tank as a proven target earner when the offense wants to use him heavily.

RJ Harvey is available late as a pass-catcher option for correlation builds in fantasy drafts, fitting into late-round running back strategies alongside Jaylen Waddle and Bo Nix.

Dave Klug identifies Bo Nix as the biggest winner in the Denver offense upgrade with Jaylen Waddle acquisition. Klug draws parallels between Nix entering year three and Josh Allen getting Stefon Diggs in his third year, which led to an explosion in production. Klug has been getting Nix in round 14 as a late-round QB selection and believes he has been at worst a backend QB1, with ceiling potential to ascend to a top-five quarterback now that he has a reliable secondary target in Waddle. Klug emphasizes there is no respect for Nix in the current market. Available at mid-QB2 pricing, especially in baseball drafts, enabling strong correlation builds with Jaylen Waddle and other Broncos receivers; positioned as a cheap streamer option in single-QB formats and redrafts if he has a breakthrough season.

Courtland Sutton remains a significant part of the Denver offense despite the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle. The second speaker expects Sutton to get the majority of targets in the red zone due to his contested catch ability, though Dave Klug believes Waddle will be the alpha in the offense. Sutton is described as a fine draft click at his current ADP.

Traded to Denver; Dave Klug views him as a great target after Broncos traded a first, third, and fourth-round pick for him. Waddle checks off multiple boxes with wide receiver one upside, though may not have the ceiling of AJ Brown or George Pickens. Klug bullish on Denver offense taking a big step forward with Bo Nix in year three, drawing parallels to Josh Allen's explosion with Stefon Diggs in his third year. Waddle going at WR23 in FFPC ADP and represents an easy click for Klug. Concern exists about upside given Courtland Sutton expected to get majority of red-zone targets with his contested catch ability, and Sean Payton's tendency to spread the ball deep into his personnel bag means other receivers will be involved, potentially capping ceiling.

Traded to Buffalo Bills after disappointing 2024 in Chicago; lands as WR1 attached to Josh Allen with excellent schematic fit. Josh Allen explicitly wants receivers who can get open off-script rather than stay on-spot, which aligns perfectly with Moore's freelance route-running style; reunites with Joe Brady (prior Carolina success). Dave Klug maintains bullish take despite Moore being ranked WR24 in FFPC, citing schematic fit over recent production decline and noting Josh Allen elevates talent around him. Klug ranks him in the WR22-26 range; while Allen spreads the ball around, Moore has ability to put up spike weeks and will be featured after Buffalo gave up a second-round pick for him. Prefers Moore over Jaylen Waddle despite similar ADP and willing to reach for him.

Ranked as a top-5 WR preference ahead of AJ Brown; used as a comparison point for elite WR positioning in 2025 rankings. Drake London is highlighted as a strong second-round wide receiver target in the new-team context, positioned alongside AJ Brown as a quality option at the position.

Patriots WR who hit 1,000 yards last year in a part-time role with 58% snap share; demonstrates the opportunity available for a WR1 to step into New England's offense, providing context for AJ Brown's potential production. Stefan Diggs, now 31 years old, averaged 12.5 PPR points per game last season after being traded to Buffalo; cited as a comparable reference point for AJ Brown's potential production and age context in the new-team WR discussion.

Traded to Patriots; sharp drafters in high-stakes leagues (FFPC, NFC) pushing him into top-5 WR territory and mid-second round ADP; Dave Klug saw him go 11th overall in an NFC draft. Threat to lead NFL in touchdown catches given Josh McDaniels' historical success with traded WRs (Randy Moss 20+ TDs, DeVante Adams 14 TDs). Despite Eagles' low-volume passing game and early-season injury last year, still finished top-10 WR. Stefan Diggs hit 1,000 yards in 58% snap share in New England last year, demonstrating opportunity for WR1 production. Klug drafting him at the 1-2 turn without hesitation; channels '90s-2000s alpha WR energy similar to Terrell Owens and Brandon Marshall. Still prefers CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, and Amon-Ra St. Brown as top-5 WRs but comfortable taking AJ Brown at 1-2 turn in 3-WR or full-PPR formats. Klug projects AJ Brown at ADP 18 overall and feels comfortable drafting him there in regular PPR leagues, though ceiling outcome could push him higher; expects realistic production around 17+ points per game this season.

Referenced as a top-tier WR comparison on a points-per-game basis; used as a benchmark for evaluating other wide receivers' performance.

Traded wide receiver who finished as a low-end WR1 in counting stats after joining Cleveland; described as absurd, exemplifying the upside unlock that traded receivers can provide when landing in the right situation.

Traded wide receiver who was a win at his ADP; averaged double-digit PPG and was available at a cheap price all off-season, providing quick-start value at the beginning of the year, making him one of the successful traded WR outcomes.

Traded wide receiver with mixed results; Dave Klug grades his 2024 season as a C++ or push—not catastrophic but not a massive hit; still provided spike weeks despite the middling overall performance, suggesting modest value for those who drafted at cost. Currently going first among Steelers wide receivers but viewed as a worse fit than Michael Pittman Jr. for the offense; described as a finesse speed guy who plays outside the numbers rather than a contested-ball catcher across the middle; benefits from Pittman taking pressure off him by opening up outside opportunities, but lacks the arm strength support from Aaron Rodgers that he had in Seattle.

Traded wide receiver who delivered WR1 production at a favorable ADP; outscored teammate CeeDee Lamb on a points-per-game basis, making him the clear winner among traded receivers last season and exemplifying the high hit rate for traded WRs. Dave Klug described the impact as massive, especially given his draft cost.

Historical example of rookie wide receiver value inefficiency; drafted in round six despite elite talent, illustrating how fantasy managers' reluctance to draft rookies creates draft-day value opportunities for those willing to take on the risk.

Free agent running back signing to Carolina Panthers exemplifies the successful team-change strategy; part of a high hit rate for RBs signing as free agents in the off-season, demonstrating that team-change opportunities can unlock significant fantasy value.

Matt Harmon believes the breakout that happened at the beginning of the season for Rome Odunze was real. He views the Burden vs. Odunze comparison as closer to a toss-up than conventional wisdom suggests, with Odunze having a slight edge from a route separation standpoint and winning at all three levels. Harmon is a big fan of Odunze as a prospect and of his performance in the past season, and fully believes year three can be a monster year for him. Harmon emphasizes that liking both Odunze and Burden is not mutually exclusive and pushes back against the internet narrative that forces a choice between the two receivers on the same team. Odunze has been up and down with injuries; the injury was devastating not just physically but also from a practice reps and communication standpoint within the offense, causing him to fall out of sync with the offense. Odunze will play all over the formation and all three receiver positions, not confined to the X position as conventional wisdom suggests, with no fixed role assignment. He will get reps from the slot and outside, and was doing a lot of the Amon-Ra St. Brown-type work at the beginning of the year.

Equanimeous St. Brown is positioned to dominate targets alongside Cole Kmet in the Chicago offense. The third receiver options are not volume hogs, making St. Brown and Kmet the primary target recipients.

Cole Kmet is expected to dominate targets in the Chicago offense alongside Equanimeous St. Brown, as the third receiver options (St. Brown, Zay Thomas) are not volume hogs. Kmet will be one of the primary target recipients in the offense.

Matt Harmon assesses Luther Burden as a tier-three receiver prospect with a solid floor and clear upside. After a slow start with three games of negative receiving yards in his first seven games, Burden emerged as a dynamic playmaker in his final eight games with 5.6 targets, 4.3 receptions, 60.1 yards per game, 75% catch rate, and pace for 1,022 yards over that span. His yards per route run as a rookie ranks among the best ever for rookie receivers, behind only Odell Beckham. Harmon notes Burden's reception perception profile is strong: 71% success rate versus man coverage, 80% success rate versus zone coverage, 85% dig route success rate, and 73% success rate on out routes—metrics that warrant betting on him "seven out of 10, eight out of 10 times" or "way more often than not." Harmon emphasizes Burden's exceptional profile with the ball in his hands: in space on nearly 68% of his sampled catches, went down on first contact on just 38% of those plays ("crazy low"), and broke multiple tackles on nearly 24% of plays ("exceptional result"). However, Harmon expresses measured skepticism about the hype, positioning him as a good but not great player, noting insufficient evidence of real receiver skills—specifically, not enough refinement and ability to get open across multiple areas of the field to justify going all-in. Burden's postseason performance was poor: 14 targets for 42 yards in one playoff game and 24 yards in another, with a miscommunication on a route with Caleb Williams and a drop, suggesting the end-of-season hype driven by his Week 17 performance (8 of 9 targets, 138 yards, 1 TD vs. San Francisco) may not fully reflect his consistency. Harmon is optimistic about Burden's outlook and believes he's ready to be a starting receiver in the NFL and at least a high-quality WR2; if he improves technically and takes on more advanced receiver responsibilities in year two, he could develop into a WR1.

Last season, Simmons was much better at pass blocking (25th amongst 89 qualified tackles) than run blocking (83rd at his position), suggesting limitations in his blocking ability.

Keenan Allen is part of the wide receiver room being drafted on this team.

The speaker notes that Davante Adams is being drafted after ADP.

The speaker considers taking Sutton and notes he is being drafted after ADP.

There was scuttlebutt that Simmons had a death in the family or a serious health situation, though the speaker cannot confirm or deny this rumor.

The speaker regrets drafting Travis Etienne, saying it was a mistake on the team and he should have taken Flowers or T. Higgins instead.

The speaker refuses to draft Parker Washington over Jarian Price, saying 'I'm not freaking taking Parker Washington over Jarian Price. Not doing it.'

The speaker mentions Chase Brown as an alternative running back option if others don't want to draft Kenneth Walker.

The speaker considers Jeremiah Love a good second-round running back pick, grouping him with Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, and Martin Hampton as solid options.

The speaker dismisses drafting 32-year-old Derrick Henry as an alternative to Kenneth Walker, sarcastically suggesting others can 'draft 32-y old Derrick Henry' if they don't want Walker.

The speaker notes that being an Andy Reid running back has only become a negative when those running backs were Isaiah Pacheco and 37-year-old Kareem Hunt, implying Pacheco was a disappointing fantasy asset.

The speaker expresses uncertainty about whether Mahomes and the Chiefs will 'totally like reinvent and reinvigorate themselves,' but suspects they will, noting this context matters for Andy Reid running back value.

The speaker drafts Javonte Williams as part of their running back strategy, indicating confidence in him as a second-round pick alongside other backs.

The speaker drafts Jonathan Taylor as part of their running back strategy, listing him alongside Kenneth Walker and Travis Etienne as key picks.

The speaker references Kareem Hunt's prime performance under Andy Reid, noting he led the NFL in rushing yards in 2017 as a third-round pick and was drafted high because he was an Andy Reid running back, establishing the historical precedent for Andy Reid RB success.

The speaker mentions taking ETN over Zay Flowers, later expressing regret about the pick, saying 'the mistake on this team was taking ETN. I should have just sucked it up and taken Flowers or T. Higgins.'

The speaker expresses difficulty with Zay Flowers' draft price in the third round, saying 'I can't take these prices' and 'I can't take Z Flowers here,' indicating the price is too high relative to value.

Kenneth Walker is expected to easily score many fantasy points as an Andy Reid running back, with the speaker highlighting the historical success of Andy Reid's running backs and projecting Walker will score a bunch of touchdowns.

The speaker fades Daryl Williams, noting that while he once had a run as RB1 in fantasy, his career was about to end and he's no longer a viable fantasy asset.

The host selects Evan Engram (ETN) instead of Zay Flowers, indicating he prefers Engram's value at that draft position.

The host expresses difficulty with Zay Flowers' draft price in the third round, indicating he views the valuation as too expensive.

The host argues Kenneth Walker should be going in the third round and will 'easily easily easily score so many fantasy points,' citing historical context of Andy Reid backfields being productive.

Jonathan Taylor is selected at the 1.7 pick in the draft, indicating he's being taken in the first round as an ADP target.

The host identifies Charlie Kolar as the 'Cabal fantasy player of the season,' suggesting he's a key sleeper pick for those in the know within the fantasy community.

Charlie Kolar is identified as the 'Cabal fantasy player of the season' for those truly in the know, suggesting he is a cult-favorite sleeper pick among sophisticated fantasy players.

Gunner Helm was drafted at pick 169, and the drafter expresses frustration that viewers are taking his recommended players, suggesting potential overvaluation.

Terrence Ferguson is drafted at pick 182 and the drafter expresses frustration that viewers are taking his recommended players, suggesting Ferguson may be overvalued due to his content influence.

The drafter chooses Gino Smith over Brassette as a late-round quarterback option.

DJ Giddens is drafted in round 18 with only 0.7% expected ownership despite being ostensibly the running back two for his team, making him a significantly undervalued sleeper pick.

Daniel Jones tore his Achilles on December 17th and is expected to return by week one, as players typically return quicker from Achilles injuries than ACL injuries.

Despite concerns about the Chargers offense, Sutherland is the only Chargers pass catcher the analyst likes at cost.

Keaton Sutherland is described as 'a real victim of slapflation,' indicating he is overpriced relative to his value.

Despite having bad wide receivers and a bad offensive line, Willis's ADP has been declining and his poor play will not be offset by the Browns' better weapons.

Watson is ranked below Gardner Minshew, Aiden O'Connell, and Kenny Pickett, with Kenny Pickett being a better quarterback over the last four years.

Watson is described as 'basically the worst quarterback in football' with a 39% success rate and -2 CPOE, worse than Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell, Cooper Rush, Davis Mills, and Josh Dobbs.

Deshaun Watson is the worst quarterback in football with a 39% success rate and -2 CPOE, worse than Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell, Cooper Rush, Davis Mills, Josh Dobbs, Gardner Minshew, Aiden O'Connell, and Kenny Pickett.

Mike Quant projects Deshaun Watson for 311 pass attempts, 15 passing touchdowns, and 13 interceptions for the Browns—described as 'dark, dark, dark stuff.'

The speaker takes more Saquon Barkley than Deshaun Watson, believing Barkley is more likely to be playing at the end of the year.

Shanahan should be using George Kittle like an older Colston Loveland rather than trying to make him run block like five years ago.

The speaker doesn't take much Christian Kirk and questions what the coaching staff has said about him, noting uncertainty about his role under Shanahan.

The speaker has a shockingly low amount of Aaron Jones in their draft bags and is considering adding him, suggesting potential undervaluation.

George Kittle has missed a fair amount of time, though the speaker doesn't characterize him as injury-prone, noting that tight end is generally a physically demanding position.

In redraft leagues, Rashee Rice was so bad that owners had to sit with zero points week after week, making him a painful hold.

The speaker doubts the Chiefs will re-sign Rashee Rice unless he seriously commits to rehab and has an excellent season, given the team's reluctance to pay even their best players.

Rashee Rice tore his ACL and was shut down at the end of last year, raising concerns about his availability and the Chiefs' commitment to re-signing him.

Brock Purdy was selected as part of a 49ers stack strategy in the draft.

Patrick Mahomes was sniped in the draft by another manager (Zetter Williliger) who does not have other Chiefs players.

In a dynasty league trade offer of Drake London for Cam Ward (assuming super flex), the analyst would still rather have Drake London.

Tyler Warren offers a little bit of ADP value and is considered a reasonable pick with relatively unique appeal.

Ty Johnson is the highest ADP player the analyst has never clicked, and the analyst expresses concern that fading him will come back to hurt them.

Ty Johnson is the highest ADP player the analyst has never drafted, and he expresses concern that "The Tai Johnson fade's going to come back to kill me," indicating worry about missing out on the player.

Mahomes has a base ADP around 90, with the analyst noting it's become difficult to get him at pick 95 anymore due to superflex drafts affecting his average draft position.

Evans is described as having "a little smidgen of ADP value," suggesting he's being undervalued relative to his draft position.

Host stated he's been convinced on Jeremiah Love, noting he was the third pick in the draft and selecting him in his draft.

Host explicitly dismissed Parker Washington, saying 'Let's not and say we did,' indicating he has no interest in drafting him.

Host mentioned Jonathan Taylor in the context of potentially drafting players around 10 spots after ADP, suggesting consideration of him as a value pick.

Host mentioned Christian McAffrey at pick five as a potential selection, indicating he's available at that draft position.

Devon Achane is ranked running back 6 or 7 in PPR redraft and RB5 in Dynasty, but the source has grown increasingly bearish on him this offseason despite acknowledging his elite talent and efficiency. The primary concern is situational: loss of Mike McDaniel (who built the offense around Achane and previously elevated Raheem Mostert to RB2 overall in 2023 and Elijah Mitchell to RB20 in PPR points per game in 2021) and the departure of Tua Tagovailoa for Malik Willis. Tua ranked 5th in check-down rate among QBs with 200+ dropbacks in 2024, creating a perfect environment for Achane's passing-game success. Achane ranked 3rd in target share among all NFL running backs in 2024 and 2nd the prior year. Malik Willis is a run-first QB with the #1 scramble rate in the NFL last season and the 4th highest eight-odd of any QB with 50+ snaps—both metrics unfavorable for receiving volume. The Dolphins are projected to win 4.5 games (FanDuel), creating negative game scripts and poor field position. Achane accumulated 139.8 PPR points last year (RB5), with the passing work being the primary driver of his elite finish. The source projects that if passing work is cut by 30-50%, Achane will not justify his late first/early second round ADP. The source's conclusion: too much systemic risk at his current cost, despite his talent and efficiency.

Sam Laporta is ranked tight end 6 in redraft and tight end 7 in Dynasty, but the source identifies him as a bust pick due to limited opportunity in the Detroit Lions offense despite his talent. His touchdown rate has declined sharply from 10 in his rookie season to 7 in year two and 3 last year (9 games). The offense has evolved with growing roles for Jameer Gibbs, Jameson Williams (91 targets in year two, 102 last year), and Isaac Tesla carving out red zone work. The source argues there's a sharp decline in tight end tiers after Brock Bowers and Trey McBride, with Colston Loveland and Warren in a second tier of upside guys, and Laporta right at the top of that sharp decline. The source believes Isaiah Likely has a better chance to finish as a top-3 tight end than Laporta. The redraft price is the primary concern; at his ADP, the opportunity cost is not worth it if he finishes as tight end 6, since the difference between tight end 6 and tight end 16 is negligible most years.

Tyler Warren is positioned to benefit from Michael Pittman's departure from the Colts. The source notes they are at price on Warren, who will soak up a lot of the targets that Pittman left on the table, making him a preferred target in the Colts offense over Alec Pierce.

Daniel Jones is returning from a torn Achilles injury, which is a concern for Alec Pierce's deep-ball production. Pierce performed better without a healthy Jones (four of six TDs and two best weekly finishes came after Jones was injured), so betting on consistent bomb production with Jones coming off a torn Achilles is risky.

Josh Downs is the preferred target in the Colts offense over Alec Pierce. Downs is performing well in OTAs and is identified as a guy the speakers are high on in the Colts offense. With Michael Pittman out of town, Downs is positioned to benefit from increased target share.

Alec Pierce is a bust pick at WR32 ADP in redraft. Despite being talented as a real-life receiver, Pierce is a field stretcher who relies on deep bombs; he had only 47 receptions in 2025 (his career high through four years in the league) and has never had a 50-catch season. The source is skeptical that a player can go four straight years without 50 catches and finish as a top-32 WR. Four of Pierce's six touchdowns and his two best weekly finishes came after Daniel Jones was injured, meaning Pierce performed better without a healthy Jones. Now Jones is returning from a torn Achilles, which the source does not want to bet on for consistent deep ball production. The nail in the coffin is Pierce's ankle injury and offseason surgery; he has not participated in OTAs or minicamp, and the Colts have been cryptic about his return timeline. For a player who relies on elite speed and explosiveness, ankle problems are a major red flag.

Chase Brown is a bust pick at RB8 ADP. The source has shifted from a buy to a hold to a sell on Brown as his price has risen throughout the offseason. Brown ranked 30th in yards per carry (just behind Hampton at 32nd) and 22nd in PFF rushing grade among RBs with 50+ carries; he was six spots behind teammate Samajay P. Ryan in yards per carry. He ranked 37th in rushing success rate while facing the sixth-least average defenders in the box. The Bengals face the third-most difficult schedule for RBs in 2026. Early in 2025, Brown was poor when Joe Burrow was healthy, only excelling late in the season when Burrow was injured and he received goal-line work. The source does not believe in his talent level and views him as a bet solely on the Bengals offense, not on Brown's ability.

Kamani Vidal represents additional competition for Hampton's workload. Vidal was heavily used last year and had four top-eight fantasy finishes. In the playoff game against the Patriots, Vidal played 93% of snaps compared to Hampton's 3%, despite Hampton being active for his fifth consecutive game. While the speaker does not expect Vidal to be ahead of Hampton on the depth chart, Vidal is unlikely to disappear entirely and will likely retain some role in the offense.

Keaton Mitchell is positioned to benefit from Mike McDaniel's aggressive pursuit and elite efficiency metrics. McDaniel actively campaigned to sign Mitchell as a free agent, even hanging wanted posters in the Chargers facility, signaling the coach's clear desire to add an explosive pass-catching back. Mitchell ranked #1 in yards per carry and #3 in explosive run rate among RBs with 50+ carries in 2025, outperforming teammate Amari Hampton on both metrics. These elite efficiency numbers suggest Mitchell will be heavily involved in the Chargers offense under McDaniel's system.

RB16 in startup, but overpriced and will decline in value next year. Explosiveness lacking; lacks measurables of incoming elite RB class (Ahmad Hardy, Ole Miss kid). Similar to Javante Williams (not crazy explosiveness, playing great offense) but faces more competition in Rams offense than Javante does in Cowboys offense. Javante is four spots cheaper and was better talent coming out of college. Fancy points per game declined three straight years: 21.3 to 17 to 15.5. Rush attempts dropped from 316 to 259 over last two years as Blake Corum increased from 58 to 145 attempts. Fumble issues: tied for most lost fumbles in last three seasons, happening in tight games; question how long Sean McVeigh tolerates this. Out of rookie purgatory now; expect Blake Corum to continue pendulum swing upward while Kyron's role diminishes. Inflation is a big issue with Kyron's current pricing. Dwindling fancy points per game (down to 15.5) signals he's overpriced right now. Long-term, Blake Corum holders will be happy while Kyron Williams holders will be frustrated. RB16 is not in the cards for him next year.

Bullish on Blake Corum as player who will get more expensive next year. Showcased ability to contribute and needs to be featured in Rams offense. Provides pop, burst, and explosiveness that Kyron Williams lacks. Went from 58 rush attempts rookie season to 145 last year (2.5x increase); 7.2 fantasy points per game across 17 games last year. Rams rookies historically don't take off immediately but gain trust factor in year two, as evidenced by Corum's progression. If role increases to 8-9 fantasy points per game, could become preferred option over Kyron.

RB19 in startup ADP, in same tier as Javante Williams, but overvalued for a rookie with no cumulative NFL measurements. Role will be carved up by George Helani and Emmanuel Wilson; Seahawks may manage load similar to Kenneth Walker situation. At 106-107 ADP, Price would not be near that range in 2027 or 2028 rookie classes. Expect him to go backwards from RB19; other backs like Kwon Lacy, Ahmad Hardy, Jaden Bao could easily usurp top-20 value. Avoid in dynasty; acceptable in redraft only. At 22 years old, it's a bet on Seattle offense more than Price himself. Key question mark: what does offense look like with Kubiak gone and Sam Darnold at QB? Should get significant volume in run game, but efficiency depends on offensive quality. Receiving volume capped; didn't show receiving prowess in college, so can't assume NFL development. Concern is ceiling with new OC more than Price's talent. Could stay stable if older RBs ahead of him (Saquon, Bucky Irving) regress, allowing next year's class injection to push him down.

One spot ahead of DeVonta Smith in rankings but should not be anywhere near close in price; younger, on expanding offense with new offensive coordinator. Lamar Jackson has shown year-over-year improvement as passer (unlike Jalen Hurts limitations) and can create time for receivers. Much better buy than DeVonta Smith at similar market price; market mispricing presents opportunity to capitalize. Player Profiler recommends targeting Zay Flowers over DeVonta Smith.

Was a buy before A.J. Brown news, but price has risen significantly; now WR20-23 in Dynasty Data Lab and higher on Keep Trade Cut. At 27.6 years old (will be 28 by December), on a run-first Eagles offense (52.1% pass rate) that won't become pass-heavy even with A.J. Brown gone; historically run-heavy with close to 50% rush rate over last three years. Makai Lemmon will be high-end targeter but won't eat his lunch. High third-round redraft ADP is too expensive. Price unlikely to increase; will experience boomerang/stepping-on-rake effect as he ages another year. WR20 is his ceiling; career range 833-1,200 receiving yards with typical 900-1,000 output. Will need to hit on efficiency to produce, but that's less likely than him scraping everything he can from Jalen Hurts in a throw-mode scenario. Offense expected to shift back to more RPO with Jalen Hurts tucking and running more, benefiting Saquon Barkley instead. Recommendation: take a shot in redraft on ceiling season upside, but stay away in dynasty because you'll be tied to him as he ages. If you don't own him, don't buy in dynasty; if you do own him, develop an exit plan.

Ninth in rushing yards last year, seventh in total touchdowns, but efficiency metrics are concerning: yards created per touch 3.22 (30th in league), EPA minus 21.5 (143rd), yards per touch 4.7 (32nd). Risk of regression on touchdown volume; if opportunity share drops from 69% to 60-62% due to Phil Maffa or Jaden Blue eating into carries, value erodes significantly. At 26 years old, no incentive for Cowboys to not run him into ground, but unlikely to duplicate last year's production. Called a trap pick in dynasty startups; round three ADP on Underdog is way too expensive. However, Player Profiler notes Cowboys extended him (unlike Zeke situation), signaling commitment; locked into good offense for minimum two years as a good pass protector who will get receiving volume. Price expected to stay stagnant at RB20, not increase significantly unless he has a horrific year. Age (27 next year) and lack of explosiveness are concerning, but opportunity share keeps him stable.

Elijah Arroyo, Seattle Seahawks, TE Year 1 - Every reception

Mitchell Evans, Carolina Panthers, TE Year 1 - Every reception

Since entering the NFL - games with 100+ rushing yards: Bijan Robinson - 12 Jahmyr Gibbs - 10 During that same time span Derrick Henry has 21. Freak.

Since entering the NFL - games with 100+ rushing yards: Bijan Robinson - 12 Jahmyr Gibbs - 10 During that same time span Derrick Henry has 21. Freak.

Since entering the NFL - games with 100+ rushing yards: Bijan Robinson - 12 Jahmyr Gibbs - 10 During that same time span Derrick Henry has 21. Freak.

“For me it comes down to: what is the risk? And I think he carries a lot of it for an early second round draft pick.” @​JustinHerzig and @​evansilva discuss the ADP disagreement on Omarion Hampton: