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The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 7 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Jul 29, 2026

Published

Wed, July 29, 2026

17

Player insights

16

Players mentioned

Topics

Puka NacuaAmon-Ra St. BrownArian FosterBijan RobinsonChristian McCaffreyDaniel JonesEzekiel ElliottGeorge KittleJa'Marr ChaseJaxon Smith-NjigbaJonathan TaylorJustin JeffersonKenneth Walker IIIKyler Murray

Player analysis

Player insights

17

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveProjection16:50

Amon-Ra St. Brown is ranked 5th overall with elite target consistency: 100+ catches in each of the last four seasons. He led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last season and 66 over two seasons compared to Zay Flowers' 10 and 17 respectively. He scored as WR1 last year despite mid-season coaching change. In a 10-game sample without David Montgomery (either missed the game or finished with five carries), he averaged 21 PPR points on 22 expected points, which would extrapolate to WR1 overall, averaging 8 receptions and 102 receiving yards in those games. He plays for the team with the number one overall fantasy player (Jamar Chase), creating a fantastic offensive situation. He plays 12 of 16 games indoors and has three straight seasons with double-digit touchdowns and 115+ receptions. His floor is incredibly high, especially in full PPR.

Arian Foster

NegativeProjection15:38

Historical comparison point for 450-touch RB decline pattern; one of the last three backs to hit 450 touches (Foster, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley) whose production and fantasy appeal dropped significantly the following season, establishing precedent for Christian McCaffrey's injury and decline risk.

Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection4:47

Ranked #2 overall player in fantasy drafts. Averaged 20 PPR points per game when reaching 15 touches last season despite owning 79% of snaps. Has pathway to finish #1 overall if red zone scoring improves; currently ranked 13th, 6th, and 23rd in red zone RB scoring over past three years with only 23 carries inside the 5-yard line in first three league seasons. Handled RB3 on RB8 usage last year with 50-50 red zone split versus Tyler Allgeier (10 carries inside 5-yard line to Robinson's 11). Positioned to catch more passes with limited Falcons pass game threats beyond Kyle Pitts and Drake London; potential for increased goal-line work. However, Falcons offense faces significant headwinds: team projected to win only 2 games versus Lions' 14 wins, implying fewer scoring opportunities. Quarterback situation is 'complete nobody' with Kirk Cousins injured and Michael Penix also sidelined, creating worst-case scenario outcomes for Robinson's offensive environment.

Christian McCaffrey

NegativeProjection14:04

RB1 overall in expected points at 23 PPG if healthy, but carries significant injury and decline risk. Coming off 450 touches, which historically precedes injury and production decline; the last three 450-touch backs (Arian Foster, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley) all saw significant production drops the following season. At age 30, McCaffrey carries elevated injury risk despite clear advantage when healthy. Kyle Shanahan may scale workload back, but receiver injuries (Ricky Pierce, George Kittle coming off injury) and team health could force continued heavy usage, compounding injury risk.

Daniel Jones

PositiveRole25:09

Daniel Jones' health and presence as the Colts' starting QB is critical context for Jonathan Taylor's 2026 outlook. Even if Jones is not performing at the level he did in the first two months of 2025, he is significantly better than the end-of-season alternatives (Philip Rivers, Riley Leonard). If Jones is healthy enough to start week one and keep the offense middle-of-the-pack, the Colts will have to rely on Jonathan Taylor even more, supporting Taylor's usage despite the team's projected win total.

Ezekiel Elliott

NegativeProjection15:38

Historical comparison point for 450-touch RB decline pattern; one of the last three backs to hit 450 touches (Arian Foster, Elliott, Saquon Barkley) whose production and fantasy appeal dropped significantly the following season, establishing precedent for Christian McCaffrey's injury and decline risk.

George Kittle

NegativeInjury14:28

Coming off injury; part of broader receiver/pass-catcher depth concerns affecting team health and forcing continued heavy workload on healthy players like Christian McCaffrey.

Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveProjection8:28

Ranked #3 overall in fantasy drafts. In games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past three seasons, averaging 21.5 PPR points per game with wide receiver one overall expected points. Ranked top five in points per game in four of his five seasons. Described as one of the highest floor players period, with both heavy end zone targeting and long-range scoring ability; outside-to-inside-to-outside player in the offense functioning as a game-breaker. Has more 30+ point scoring weeks than any other wide receiver in fantasy over the last few seasons. Last four games: 23, 20, 25, 24 points. Joe Burrow and Chase both healthy entering 2026; Bengals offensive line significantly improved since start of Burrow-Chase era; defense also better than past couple seasons. Elite WR option positioned alongside Puka Nakua at the top of the receiver tier; 1,400 receiving yards is the baseline projection in betting markets.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NegativeProjection19:07

Ranked sixth overall. Coming off incredible season with 99.6 receiving yards per game including postseason; 35% target share, the next closest being Amon-Ra St. Brown at 32%, a pretty large gap; only 8% of targets were screens, indicating he was working the ball downfield rather than relying on gimme plays; produced 3.73 receiving yards per pass attempt for Seahawks, meaning when Seattle threw to anyone, he averaged that; wide receiver two in points per game last year. Benefits from Sam Darnold's play and offensive line improvement; new offensive coordinator Brian Flurry comes from Shanahan tree and was hired based on merit (crushed the whiteboard) rather than nepotism; Rasheed Shaheed and AJ Barner are not target volume threats, positioning JSN for another huge season. Regression risk is likeliest to hit JSN more than anyone else; he's only done it once while other top receivers have done it many times; loss of trusted offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak is a concern; new coordinator Brian Flurry comes from Shanahan tree but represents change; Seahawks unlikely to repeat Super Bowl win, which could impact play-action success rate; JSN led NFL in yards and touchdowns off play action last year, so if that drops to historic rates, his production could decline significantly. Ranked 8th overall; led the NFL in yards and touchdowns off play action last year; regression is likely given unsustainable 35% target share, 10.5 yards per target, and +10% completion percentage over expected. Even regressed to 9.88 yards per target and +6% CPOE (elite WR baseline), still projects as top-3 fantasy WR.

Jonathan Taylor

NegativeProjection22:37

Ranked 7th overall (later revised to 10th). RB3 overall usage over past three seasons under Shane Steichen with low-end RB1 to elite RB1 ceiling. First 13 weeks with healthy Daniel Jones: RB1 overall on RB2 usage in half PPR. Averaged over 30 half PPR points in Colts' 8 wins (first 10 games); led league with 6 yards per carry and 47–48% success rate in opening 10 games before Jones injury. Owned 84% of Colts backfield touches last season; only backfield addition is 7th-round rookie (26 years old). Entire focal point of offense with limited receiving competition (Alec Pierce injured, Josh Downs uncertain, Michael Pittman Jr. gone). Strong offensive line and faith in Shane Steichen. Concern: less involved in negative game script versus other top backs; Colts favored for only 6 games heading into season. When the Colts are in negative game script, Taylor is not as involved as other top backs across the league. With the Colts favored for only six wins heading into the season, Taylor's season might be viewed as a disappointment despite strong per-game efficiency; he may have the biggest difference between wins and losses in terms of fantasy score gap.

Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection32:28

Justin Jefferson is ranked 9th overall and positioned to return to elite production with Kyler Murray at quarterback. From 2022 to 2024, Jefferson averaged the most PPR points per game in the NFL at over 20 points per game; removing Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hall games (poor quarterback performances), his baseline is extremely high. If Kyler Murray performs closer to Kurt Cousins or Sam Darnold tier (which he was a year ago), Jefferson could return to his peak where he once had the most receiving yards per game in NFL history around 100 yards per game. The Vikings are a very pass-heavy offense that will not change with Kyler Murray. Murray previously had DeAndre Hopkins at 88 yards per game in 2020 and 80 yards per game in another season, plus Trey McBride at 72 yards per game as a tight end, demonstrating his ability to elevate top receiving options. Despite poor QB play in 2024, Jefferson still led the team in targets (WR4), air yards (WR5), and endzone targets (16), with only 2 TDs on those opportunities—indicating the system design favors him and upside remains if Murray executes.

Kenneth Walker III

PositiveValue39:47

Ranked 12th overall by the speaker with high conviction after detailed analysis. Yahoo ADP is 21st, making him available in the middle to end of the second round—a significant discount. Compared favorably to LeSean McCoy in his final three seasons with Andy Reid; at 17-game pace, projects to 1,800 scrimmage yards and is expected to set a career-high in targets by a significant margin. No legitimate RB2 competition on the Chiefs roster; EMTT Johnson was not a prospect favorite, and Amari Di Marcado is a pass-catching change-of-pace back. With Patrick Mahomes expected to play week one but not at full strength early, and Ben Mincy replacing Matt Naggie at OC, Walker is positioned to receive 20+ touches per game. Playing behind the best offensive line of his career, a significant upgrade from his Seahawks tenure. Demonstrated elite performance in high-leverage situations and against top defenses in the playoffs and Super Bowl; drafted as RB10 last year but finished RB28 due to limited opportunity, suggesting that with increased volume, his talent will translate to elite production and a top-four RB finish.

Kyler Murray

PositiveValue33:22

Kyler Murray's execution is critical to the Cardinals' passing game upside; the source emphasizes that Murray must follow the offensive design, stand tall against pressure, and fire over the middle. Murray's historical production with elite receivers (DeAndre Hopkins at 88 yards per game in 2020, Trey McBride at 72 yards per game) demonstrates the offense's capability to support top options when the QB performs. The source is not a 'Kyler Murray apologist' but frames his recent struggles as execution-based rather than systemic, and likes his price tag for stacking purposes with Justin Jefferson.

Puka Nacua

NegativeProjection0:35

Ranked #4 overall in fantasy drafts. Averaging 23.8 PPR points per game, 3.4 more than the wide receiver two overall last season. Over the past two seasons, only Jamar Chase is in his neighborhood; over his entire career, Nakua has the most receiving yards per game in NFL history at 95 yards per game. Outside the red zone, caught 8 receptions per game on 33% target share. Betting market projection: 1,400 receiving yards baseline case. Since entering the league, has finished as wide receiver one, five, and nine in points per game—rare for a day three draft pick. Red zone and end zone target share remains a concern: when Devonte Adams was on the field last year, he outtargeted Nakua 31-10 in the red zone and 28-4 in the end zone. However, when Adams missed games, Nakua received those opportunities. In his first two seasons, combined for only 10 touchdowns; hit 11 last season. Needs to maintain touchdown production and potentially increase red zone dominance if Adams declines or role shifts.

PositiveProjection33:29

Nacua holds the NFL record for receiving yards per game at approximately 100 yards per game, establishing him as a historically elite receiving talent for fantasy evaluation.

Saquon Barkley

PositiveProjection27:30

Saquon Barkley is positioned for significant positive regression after a down 2025 season. He ranked 7th in explosive runs with 58 last year (down from 2nd with 77 in 2024) and ranked 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt (down from 2nd in 2024), but the decline was environmental rather than talent-based. The Eagles' offensive line is returning and healthier with Lane Johnson missing nine games last year; Johnson stated the new scheme is simplified for the offense with more under-center work, different run types, and outside zone concepts. New coordinator Shawn Manion is expected to have a huge positive impact—the Eagles ranked 19th in scoring last year and are currently projected 12th by betting markets, with potential to finish 7th if Manion bounces back. Barkley had only 1 rushing TD on 11 carries inside the 5-yard line last year due to offensive line injuries (Cam Jurgens, Landon Dickerson), suggesting significant positive TD regression opportunity. Two years ago in a good environment, Barkley had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards; last year he had just two touchdown runs longer than 13 yards. He could see 10+ additional targets if A.J. Brown's involvement decreases.

Tank Bigsby

PositiveValue32:04

Tank Bigsby is being drafted as the best handcuff in fantasy football this season; if you don't believe in Saquon Barkley or are playing best ball or deep rosters in your league, Tank Bigsby should be drafted as a hedge.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

673

0:00There is no bigger consensus in fantasy football drafts than the top 12 overall picks, the first round. So, as soon as

0:07baseball drafts open in May, the same names make up the first round all summer long for multiple months. But we all

0:13know that the season once it's over does not end that way. So, today, Hayden and I are going to do our best to break

0:19group think and both list how we rank the top 12 to 15 overall picks in this year's fantasy drafts. I think the

0:27interesting part about round one is there's like the top six players who have established themselves as true separators and then the back half and

0:35then even in the second round to me this year it's about finding the ceiling case because if I don't have Jir Gibbs this

0:42year if I don't have Puka Nakua I feel very nervous about my chances of winning. I can't afford to take the RB8

0:49finisher uh somewhere in that turn. I'm hoping for the RB3 that year because I think it's going to be pretty difficult

0:55to match some of the ceiling cases that we have in the first half of round one.

0:59So, that's how I'm breaking ties uh at the back half of round one.

1:02>> Love all of that. Uh how we're going to do this is just go back and forth one to 15. We're going to talk about this

1:09players at the turn because that's when a major factor is uh in terms of how you're going to build your lineups this

1:16year. We're going to talk about half PPR rankings, but maybe throw in a bit of strategy if PPR uh in our rankings, how

1:22we draft these players is very divergent from that. All right, you're going to start with each one of these and then

1:27I'll go back and forth. Who is your number one player in drafts this year?

1:30>> It's got to be Jir Gibbs. He's holding out for a contract. Hopefully that gets settled shortly. But the upset here is

1:36so obvious. Jir Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half PPR points in the eight games that David Montgomery has missed or played under 25% of the snaps. He's going to

1:47set careerh highs in volume. The Detroit offensive line has gotten a little bit better going into this season. They spent some real capital across the the

1:55entire offensive line. Uh he was fourth last year in fantasy points over replacement per game. That was while he was splitting time with David

2:01Montgomery. Pacheco's in there. I do not think Pacheco and David Montgomery are nearly the same level player. This is all going towards Jir Gibbs. And the

2:09other last note I had that defense is going to be pretty bad this year in Detroit. So we're going to see a lot of

2:15shootouts, a lot of dome games. This entire division's loaded. So we're going to see a lot of like 28 to 30 games in

2:21Detroit. Jir G is going to get a lot of those points.

2:23>> Yeah. The interesting part about the defense maybe still being bad is that the Lions heading into the season are still favored in 14 games this year. I

2:30think that's second across the league.

2:32Uh Jir Gibbs is also my number one player. He's actually going second on Yahoo at this very moment if you look at

2:37drafts over the last handful of days. I mean the goal of drafting a running back this early on is that he eclipses the 20

2:44or 21 points per game for the entire season. Uh in the 25 career games with Gibbs has played 60% or more of the team

2:52snaps, he's averaged 20 points per contest. And as you said, I wrote it down the same way. Isaiah Pacheco is no

2:58Dave Montgomery. So, I'm expecting Jir Gibbs to hit that 70%, you know, snap share on a weekly basis. He played 67%

3:06last year. Uh, and then a big note for me with how the team kind of crumbled last year. Obviously, they fired their

3:13play caller and offensive line injuries hit in a major way. Uh there are some new faces and some same ones in new

3:20places along that offensive line where you have Pane Su at left tackle, Blake Miller in round one at right tackle, Tate Ratlage is in in year two at guard,

3:28and then you have Kade Maze at center right now. So, not only does he give you like week- toeek scoring, Hayden, he's

3:34also one of the true game breakers with his speed both in the rushing and receiving department. They can give you those masses spike weeks and if those

3:41pop up in the fantasy playoffs then hey you're headed to the championship.

3:44>> Other note Drew Petting is a new offensive coordinator. I was looking at some yards before contact numbers in the run department. Number one is like the

3:51Mike McDaniel offense over the last couple years. Part of that's because Devon Chin really high up there over the last couple years.

3:57>> Drew Petting and the Arizona Cardinals which you would not think that's not an offensive line stat in Arizona over the

4:02last couple years. It's definitely not a running back stat either. To me that's a schemeoriented stat a credit to Drew Petting. this is the best weaponry he's

4:09had uh since being in the play calling mix.

4:12>> Yeah, I will add and we just did a show with Ryan Paganetti uh on you know play callers and how they're generating in

4:18their rushing attacks 10 plus yard runs over and over and over again. Uh Drew Petting ranks fourth on that list whereas you know Ben Johnson was top

4:26two. Um Clayton Adams who is now with the Dallas Cowboys was a part of that Drew Petting staff in Arizona and now

4:32he's not. So maybe some of those numbers are skewed because Clayton Adams is one of the best uh run let's say organizers

4:38and architects across the league. All right, so we have the same 1-1. Hayden, I have a feeling that our number two

4:45player is going to be the same here as well.

4:47>> Yeah, in half PPR, I will go be Robinson. I think in full PPR, this is where the Puka Jamar Chase conversation,

4:52I think, really kind of picks into gear just because I feel less certain about the Falcons offense versus the Lions offense. And that's how he broke the tie

4:59between Bejon and Jir Gibbs. That said, the market projections for Bejon and Gibbs are almost the exact same thing.

5:07We also have Tyler Algier uh without Bejian Robinson. We don't know the exact splits because Algier's been healthy for a lot of that. Brian Robinson comes in.

5:15I think he can do a pretty decent Tyler Algier impression, but Bejian was the RB3 on RB8 usage last year. Uh that was

5:22when Algier handled 10 inside the 5yard line carries to Bejon's 11. So that was like a 50-50 split. Could we just like

5:28not make that 50-50 split uh moving forward? that would be helpful. He's going to catch the ball. There's really not many pass game threats in Atlanta

5:35after Kyle Pittz and Drake London. I don't think the defense is going to be nearly as good. So, he's going to catch

5:39a bunch of passes and this hopefully could be the year where Kevin fans says, "Let's give like Bean Robinson like all

5:46the goal line work." And that's how he closes the gap between these huge Jamar Chase or uh these huge Demir Gibbs uh

5:52splits that we have with T Montgomery.

5:53>> Yeah. In the fantasy playoffs last year, Bejian ran for 175, 168, and 229 total yards. Obviously, Bejian Robinson is my

6:02number two player as well for fantasy football this year. He's averaged 20 points per game when he's reached 15 touches. That's not a lot of touches to

6:09average, you know, 20 plus fancy points per contest. And yet, he owned 79% of the snaps last year. So, I'm ranking him

6:16second. But with that in mind, Hayden, I I still do think there is a pathway for him to obviously finish as the number

6:22one overall player in fantasy football this year. And then I sat back and asked myself, okay, how can that happen? What

6:28has to change for Bejon to get there?

6:30Um, it really comes down to red zone scoring. Okay, he's ranked 13th, sixth, and 23rd in red zone running back scoring over the last three years

6:39according to Rich Rebar. And over the his first three years in the league, he's only had Hayden 23 carries from inside of the five yard line. Derrick

6:48Henry had 24 last season on his own.

6:51Even Devin Singleary had more carries inside the 5yard line than Bejian Robinson did last year. Now, a lot of you can say, "Well, that's because he

7:00scores long touchdowns." Yes, that is true. But what could make him the number one overall player is if he scores the

7:06long touchdowns. And also when this team gets inside the 5yd line, he also scores those touchdowns. And I think that we

7:13might get closer to that this season.

7:15>> Yeah, I really hope so. Yeah, 10 to 11 last year with Algier. Hopefully that's not the case this season.

7:19>> I did want to end this conversation by bringing up why we have Jir Gibbs over Bjun Robinson. I'll speak for myself. Um

7:27it comes down to just the implied points and where these teams are projected heading into the year. I mentioned that the Lions are favored in 14 games this

7:36season and the Falcons are only favored in two and you know you score more points than your opponent in games that

7:42you win and the Lions are probably going to score more points than the Falcons this year and I think the trickle down

7:47to Jir Gibbs just means he's going to score more points than Bejian Robinson.

7:51>> And to that point right now the quarterback one uh in Atlanta like today is a complete nobody because two is

7:57injured and so is Michael Penn. like you have like those like kind of worst case scenario outcomes that exist with Bejon

8:02enough so where I think these next two wide receivers I I do think by the end of this this uh training camp period. I

8:08might kind of go back and forth and maybe have Bejon as like low as four, but I can't go any lower than that.

8:12Obviously, >> I was hoping to start this video off with a bang. Uh I am a bit nervous that our top four are going to be the same.

8:18So to you the viewers, do not click away. I guarantee you once we get to our fifth players, things really diverge

8:23from there. We go in different places.

8:25So uh stick around because this video gets really interesting there. But to bring that up, who's your number three player in fantasy football drafts this

8:31year?

8:31>> Really tough call. I'm going with Jamar Chase right here. Uh in games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past three

8:37seasons. He's averaging 21 and a half PPR points per game. Wide receiver one on wide receiver one overall expected points. Joe Burrow's healthy. Jamar

8:47Chase is healthy. I would say the offensive line since the beginning of the Joe Burrow Jamar Chase years to where it is now is in a much better

8:54spot. The defense is probably a little bit better now than it was the last couple seasons. I view that all as a

8:58wash. I view the Bengals as a Super Bowl contending team this year. And everything obviously flows through Jamar Chase. So, he feels like one of the

9:05highest floor players, period. And then in full PPR, if you wanted to take him over Bejian Robinson, I would not bat an

9:10eye for a second.

9:11>> Jamar Chase is also my third overall player in four of his five seasons. He's ranked top five in points per game.

9:17Pretty damn good. Uh he is both one of the most heavily targeted players in the end zone and then also scoring targets

9:25from long range. It's kind of what I just talked about with Bjun Robinson.

9:29This is what we want from a wide receiver and also not just getting the opportunity to score touchdowns. It's also he's an outside to inside to

9:36outside player in this offense. So, he is a game-breaker. We have seen him score 30 40 points. Just anecdotally, he probably has more of those 30 plus point

9:45scoring weeks than any other wide receiver in fantasy football over the last few seasons. Uh and that is why I have him as the wide receiver one and

9:52third overall this season.

9:54>> Yeah. last four games 23 points, 20 points, 25 points, 24 points. You know, it's just a clinic.

9:59>> Pretty good. I I have another bingle I'm going to talk about spoiler in the top 15. So, I have a lot more of

10:06>> uh how the Bengals offense was unsuccessful early in the season with Jake Browning and got much better with Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow and obviously

10:13Jamar Chase felt that too. All right, your number four player is who?

10:16>> Puka and he can easily easily finish as the most valuable player in fantasy this year. I think this is a a big four that

10:22I feel comfortable with. uh 23.8 PPR points per game were 3.4 more than the wide receiver two overall last season.

10:31Over the past two seasons, only Jamar Chase is in his neighborhood over his entire career. Neu has the most receiving yards per game in NFL history.

10:39That's the entire league history at 95 yards per game. There's still no wide receiver three. They're going to do the 13 personnel stuff. He'll be the only

10:48wide receiver on the field. His running mate is 33 years old and Devonte Adams.

10:52The Rams are still projected for the most points this year. Outside the red zone, Nikua caught eight receptions per game on a 33% target share. That's

11:00outside the red zone. Eight per game.

11:02That's what we're talking about here.

11:03And inside the red zone, at any point if we flip this thing around, we're talking about a season that is unmatched in

11:09fantasy. I don't think that's the most likely scenario because Adams is very good at the goal line. But yes, if if

11:14that switches, we're talking about an unmatched potential here.

11:17>> Puka is also my number four player. Uh, I do love how you worded that of outside the red zone because I think not my one

11:24frustration with Pukun but like the one Infinity Stone that he hasn't had previously is being dominant inside the red zone. I mean just overall it was

11:33scoring touchdowns prior to this past season. I mean his first two years in the league he combined for 10 touchdowns and then obviously this past year he hit

11:3911 which is a big deal. We need that to happen again and I think it will. But as you said, when they get inside the 20

11:45yard line and especially the 10 and the five, Devonte Adams just has the gravity no matter where he goes, what team he's

11:53on to dominate those opportunities. When Devonte Adams was on the field last year, according to Reeves, he outtargeted Pukuna 31-10 in the red zone

12:02and 28-4 in the end zone. But as you said, like when Devonte missed games, guess who got those opportunities? Pukuna. And what if

12:11Dvonte has started to decline a little bit? Maybe they have spent the offseason hoping that Puga can be their go-to player inside the red zone and

12:19especially in the end zone. And if that is the case, as you said, we have like from one goal line to the other goal

12:25line, a full complete package here with Pukaku to be like the player that you need in fantasy football this year.

12:31>> There's no reason why they don't target him in in the red area. Like he comes down with crazy sideline catches and is

12:35a massive guy. Like the second they switch that, like it would clearly work.

12:39So, it's just really just, you know, even factoring that that's not going to happen. It's it's him and Jamar Chase by

12:45themselves right now looking at it, right? His projection like in the betting markets 1,400 receiving yards.

12:511,400 receiving yards. That's like the That's like the baseline case for him.

12:55That's crazy.

12:56>> Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, wide receiver one, wide receiver five, and wide receiver nine in points per game since entering the league. Uh, and that was

13:03what as a day three draft pick. That rarely happens, you know, rarely happens. Uh, and I do want to say I feel

13:10a lot better about Matthew Stafford heading into this season than I did this time last year, Hayden, when you know the immortal chamber showed up on day

13:17one. [laughter] >> It's still there, by the way. It's still there. It's a road show now. Yeah. Now it's just purely for marketing purposes.

13:23Uh, also weird thing, uh, Bejon, Jir Gibbs, and Pukanua. It's like contract seasons for all these guys. I know they're going to get paid maybe before

13:32the before training camp, but like we got a lot writing to the prime of all these guys careers. Feels very good to

13:38have a top four pick this season.

13:39>> All right, this is one of our biggest shows of the summer. So, if you've made it this far and you haven't hit that

13:43subscribe button, do it right now. Uh, it's totally free to you. Our whole goal for the next month plus is to help you

13:49win your fantasy football leagues this year. Win your drafts this year. Uh, and hit that thumbs up button while you're there so you know YouTube knows that you

13:57watched this episode. Hayden, I am sick of agreeing. I don't want to agree the rest of this episode. So, who is your

14:04number five player?

14:04>> I'm going Christian McCaffrey. um coming off 450 touches. You know how this can go sideways here. It's rare to get that

14:11many touches. When running backs get that many touches, they are injured often the next season. That said, he easily finishes the RB1 overall in

14:19expected points at 23 per game. RB1 overall in actual fantasy points as well. If he stays healthy, he's right in the mix with Bejian Robinson and Jamir

14:28Gibbs. And I'm trying to find upside weeks. even if you get him for 13 14 weeks, like scrape scrape by the last

14:34couple weeks here. Uh he just gives you such a clear advantage when he's out there. Uh Kyle Shanahan wants to scale

14:40his uh his workload back a little bit.

14:43They always say that. I think they're going to do it at times this year, but we're dropping receivers like flies with

14:49Ricky Pieraw. George KD coming off of an injury and running backs with with broken ribs and whatnot. It's like >> we're going to come to the season again.

14:56He's going to be the only guy that's healthy. Um, so I get it. He can get injured and this could look stupid and

15:01at the same time like last year you can draft him and you can win your fantasy league.

15:05>> Chris McAffrey is my number six overall player. Uh, hey I mean it was my home run swing on this episode last year

15:10where I called out CMC as my fourth overall player and he finished as the running back one with 22 points per

15:16game. Uh, I'm not doing that this year, but it's not because I don't want to or don't believe in him. I I think I just

15:23kind of believe in the other players that we talked about here at the front.

15:26I mean, no player owns more of their team touches than CMC did last year.

15:3047%. Like 47% of the time he touched the football. Now, as you said, it's kind of twofold, right? Would CMC season have

15:38been even better if everyone was healthier, right? Better team, more points scored, better blocking. I think there is a case for that. Or did he

15:49actually benefit from everyone being hurt? you know, he was force-fed the ball despite lacking juice because the underlying metrics were really poor. I

15:58mean, he was 37th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards, 32nd on runs that got stuffed at the line of scrimmage

16:05that failed to gain yards, 36th in yards after contact per rush. And as you said, like the last three backs that hit 450

16:13touches from Aryen Foster to Marco Murray to the season prior, Saquon Barkley, uh, their production and their fantasy appeal dropped significantly the

16:22next year. So, I love CMC. I don't want him to hit this cliff, but you know, those guys were 26 and 27 years old that

16:30I just shouted out. And uh CMC is entering his age 30 season right now.

16:34>> Yeah, he's a lot riskier this year than he was the previous season, which is ironic because he was coming off injury.

16:39And you you really just want to be avoiding him when he comes off that amount of touches. I just can't ignore

16:44the upside. We're trying to come in first and second last time uh I checked in fantasy football. Like you just got

16:49to deal with the risk.

16:50>> Absolutely love that. Okay, my fifth player. I'm on Ross St. Brown. I actually changed this right before this video started. I had another wide

16:58receiver in the spot, but just going through this research, I thought to myself, I I just trust ARSB and this situation more than I do others. I mean,

17:07100 plus catches in each of the last four seasons and just the environment that he's in is fantastic. I mean, we're

17:15talking about also the team that shares, you know, the number one overall player in fantasy football this year. 12 of 16

17:22games in the fantasy season will be played indoors. I already mentioned how many games are gonna be favored in. And I keep talking about, you know, red zone

17:30and endzone targets because guess what?

17:32That's where the majority of touchdowns are scored. There are a lot of differences between Aman Ross and Brown and someone like Zay Flowers, for

17:39example, but one of them is that red zone work. I mean, Amaran Ross Brown led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last

17:47season. Comparably, Zay Flowers had 10.

17:50Aman Ross St. Brown has 66 red zone targets over the last two seasons. Z Flowers has 17. So this is someone who

17:59from your own end zone to the other end zone is going to be heavily featured and heavily target. And he even scored as

18:06the wide receiver for last year when the play caller was fired mid-season. And I expect a lot more stability from the

18:12offensive line and a coaching standpoint in 2026 here for the line.

18:16>> As safe as it gets in his prime, the offense is completely loaded. three straight seasons with double- digit touchdowns and 115 plus receptions.

18:24That's incredible stuff. There's also splits without David Montgomery as well.

18:28So, his 10ame sample where Demart either missed the game or finished with five carries that left the game early. In those games, a Monro St. Brown averaged

18:3621 PPR points on 22 expected points.

18:40Both of those would be the wide receiver one overall if you extrapolated to that.

18:44Uh he's averaged eight receptions, 102 receiving yards in those games. Like he hasn't even run hot in touchdowns in those ones. Yeah, this one's like a a

18:53total layup. I I have him eighth overall. Um I think I can make the case with him, JSN, Jonathan Taylor. They're

18:59kind of all in that range uh where I feel very good about them. A Monro's floor is just like so incredible and

19:05obviously better in full PPR.

19:06>> Okay, who's your sixth ranked pair?

19:07>> I got JSN sixth. Uh coming off an incredible season. Um that was 99.6 six receiving yards per game, including the

19:15postseason. 35% target share. Like the next closest was a Monro at 32%. That's a pretty large gap there. Uh only 8% of

19:24his targets were screen. So he wasn't doing this like as a merchant. Like he gets some of the gimme stuff, but really

19:28last year was about working the ball down the football field. That's a credit to Sam Darnold. The offensive line uh took a little bit of a step here. The

19:36one thing working against JSN is he's done it once where a lot of those guys we just talked about have done it many

19:41times. Uh and then you also have uh the loss of Clint Kubak who we fully trust.

19:46Now the new guy that they're bringing in comes from the Shanahan tree uh and Brock Huard who covers the Seahawks. He

19:54had an interesting quote about this just saying that there's no like a connection between McDonald and uh the new offensive coordinator. He just crushed

20:02the white board.

20:03>> Brian Flurry.

20:04>> Brian Flurry. Yes. Just crushed the whiteboard and was like this guy's the smartest guy in the room. Like we have

20:09to hire him. So it wasn't like some like Nepo hire. here's my bud from high school. It's like no, like no real

20:14connection, just crushed it. I kind of like that going into this. There's really like I like Rasheed Shahi and AJ Barner for what they are, but those guys

20:22aren't like target volume. So, this is going to be another huge season from JSN. I'm not really surprising anybody.

20:27I think that's a trend with Mike McDonald where he doesn't just hire friends or acquaintances like he hired, you know, the Washington offensive

20:34coordinator without ever, you know, overlapping with him and then fired him and then when Clint Kubak, I don't think he had any background with Clint either.

20:42So, he really does try to hire the best person for the job and it has worked out. Uh, JSN is going sixth on Yahoo

20:49right now. So, you're right in line with ADP. I have him as the eighth player and this is the one I was battling here with

20:54Aman Rah St. Brown. I mean, the craziest stat, I think he might have just said it. I mean, he produced 3.73 receiving

21:01yards per pass attempt for the Seahawks this year. So, it's not even per target.

21:05It was just, hey, when Seattle just threw the ball to anyone, he averaged 3.73 yards. Uh, wide receiver two in points per game last year. Hayden, do

21:15you think that this is the player though that regression is likeliest to hit more than anyone else? Like again, no Clint

21:21Kubak, we get Brian Flurry. I just overall if you play the law of averages, doubt they win the Super Bowl again this

21:27year. Maybe the Seahawks play action success drops this year versus the historic rate that it was at last year.

21:34Uh he led the NFL in yards and touchdowns off of play action last year.

21:39At the same time, even if aggression does hit, he still dominates any share that you look at of this passing attack

21:46compared to any other wide receiver of their pass attack. So, you know, Seattle might be a little bit worse in a few

21:51areas, and if they do, then they have to throw the ball more. And if they throw the ball more, guess what? JSN can fill

21:56it in with just more opportunities.

21:58>> To answer your question, there is regression coming JSN's way. It's hard at like repeat 35% target share. Like that can be, you know, down to where

22:05Monro is at 32%. Uh yards per target, 10 and a half, completion percentage over expected at plus 10%. Those are just

22:12like really unsustainable numbers. Now, you can regress those to 9.8 eight and like six uh percentage points over expected, which is like where the rest

22:20of the elite wide receivers are, and still be the third, the second, the first fantasy wide receiver. I just think the difference between, you know,

22:28like the the Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow offenses versus what one year Sam Darl, I just feel a little bit more comfy with those other two guys, but I'm

22:35not going to say anything negative about JS.

22:37>> Your seventh overall player is who?

22:39>> I got Jonathan Taylor here. uh RB3 and RB3 overall usage over the past three seasons when Shane Stiken has arrived

22:46pretty good. Uh he's had some low-end RB1 moments and then like true elite RB1 moments. I'm kind of playing in the

22:52middle ground with Daniel Jones coming off of injury here. Uh without Daniel Jones, he still had RB3 usage, just did not have the efficiency. But for for the

23:02first 13 weeks, he was the RB1 overall on RB2 usage in half PPR. Um, when Daniel Jones was like truly healthy,

23:11like remove those like fat five games where Daniel Jones was like limping around off like the broken leg that he was dealing with, it was like not even

23:17close. So, I I I want to like factor in this like monster ceiling that Jonathan Taylor has. He's the entire focal point

23:24of the offense. Alec Pierce has been dealing with injuries. We'll see what happens with Josh Downs. There's no Michael Pitman here. Like, we're running

23:31out of bodies to get the ball to. And I really have a lot of faith in Shane Stiken. The offensive line's in pretty

23:37good shape. is always in pretty good shape and like Jonathan Taylor is he's officially him. Uh forget the receptions, don't even care about that.

23:43If you're going to, you know, average almost 100 rushing yards per game, who cares?

23:47>> Just to outline what you just said, I mean, the Colts won eight games last year. In those wins, Jonathan Taylor

23:53averaged over 30 half PPR points.

23:57>> That's ridiculous. That's ridiculous.

24:00>> And then their season hit a wall and blew up because the Daniel Jones injury.

24:05And we know how the season ended because of that. I mean, it is crazy. In eight wins, which was basically eight of the

24:12first 10 games of the season, [laughter] he averaged over 30 half PPR points. So, when we talk about true league winners,

24:19yes, that's it. Like, that is what we're looking for.

24:22>> And I hate that we have to split hairs between all these players cuz I feel like I'm really high on JT this year.

24:28I'm actually optimistic about the Colts rebounding. And that even goes to like me actually wanting to draft Daniel Jones in superflex leagues of where he's

24:36being selected right now because people thinks he he sucks. But I have Jonathan Taylor as my 10th overall player. And >> I know I know WHY. BUT BECAUSE ALL THESE

24:45GUYS ARE REALLY freaking good and I have another player at number seven. I'm going to TALK ABOUT POINTS.

24:49>> I KNOW. I know. And he he owned 84% of the Colts backfield touches last season and the only addition to the backfield

24:57was a seventh round rookie who's like 26 years old.

25:00It doesn't even matter. Yeah.

25:01>> Right. So, yeah, Jonathan Taylor led the league with six yards per carry, posting a 47 48% success rate the opening 10

25:09games before Daniel Jones again >> went to the bench and all that stuff.

25:13And I don't know, maybe I should change it again.

25:16>> You You better have some really good notes for whoever you have at number seven. These notes better like completely they better sway me because

25:22you just had 30 points per game for a half season. Like these next notes better be good.

25:26>> Here's the difference. When the Colts are in negative game script, Jonathan Taylor is not as involved as other top backs are across the league. Okay. I

25:37think it all shocked us what happened in the first 10 games of last season when the Colts were the best offense in the

25:46league. And I depending on where you look right now, I think the Colts are only favored for six games heading into

25:52the season right now. And if that's the case, if they only win six games this year, I I think there's a chance that

25:58Jonathan Taylor's season might be viewed as a bit of a disappointment just because uh he is not >> his production is obviously not 30

26:07points per game and losses, but it I think he might have like the biggest difference between wins and losses in terms of the gap in his fantasy score.

26:16>> Yeah, I'm just looking at it like the last, you know, month or so of the season, he was still heavily utilized.

26:20as I'm seeing RB7 over the last four games for him in expected points. Just the efficiency wasn't there. I I do

26:26think even if Daniel Jones is not anywhere near where he was riding super hot in the first two months, it's better

26:31than what they had the very end like the Philip Rivers and the uh Riley Leonard type of games out there. So, I feel good

26:38about this. If like Daniel Jones is like healthy enough to be out there week one and like healthy enough to like keep the

26:42offense middle of the pack but not himself, like they have to rely on Jonathan Taylor even more. So, um yeah, I feel good about it. Here's my onion

26:50hanger then at seventh overall. It's Saquon Barkley. Now on every single platform that you draft off of, he's going in round two just like he is on

27:00Yahoo. But you said I better have a good player for seventh overall. How about the guy that just a couple seasons ago

27:05was the best player in fasy football and the one that you needed. And for some reason that has been forgotten about

27:12despite all of us 365 days ago selecting him as the first running back off the board. Now, what happens and what is

27:20happening right now as we enter 2026 is the entire focus of the Eagles and you know the coverage of it is just around

27:28their passing attack. Like what is Shawn Manion going to do with Jaylen Herz? How he's going to pluck different throws out

27:33of him? Today we read that so much more under center work. How is Devonte Smith going to fill in the shoes of AJ Brown

27:40as his team's top wide receiver? How is Mai Lemon and Eli Sters going to fit in the passing attack? I am telling you

27:46none of that matters as much as getting Saquon Barkley back on track like he was in 2024. Because if the running game

27:54gets back to being the most explosive and like the highest success rate unit in the league, then that makes the passing game that much easier. Like it

28:03changes the math. It forces a safety or defensive back to climb into the box and that's when you get single high and

28:10that's when you take these easier passing shots down the field. So what happened with Saquon Barkley last year, Hayden, to me actually was not an

28:18individual talent drop. It was an environmental drop. I mean, he was 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt last year when he ranked second

28:27in 2024. Despite that, he still ranked seventh in explosive runs last year with 58. He was second in that mark in 2024

28:35with 77. So, I think despite Jeff Stoutland being gone, a Hall of Fame offensive line coach, I still think just from a healthier standpoint,

28:46cohesiveness and quality offensive line is going to make Saquon Barkley get back to his best work like we saw just two

28:53seasons ago.

28:54>> I like this call. I've got him at 10th overall, so I'm ahead on every single ADP right there with you. I think that

28:59Sean Manion is going to make a huge impact there just because the last offensive coordinator just like could not string it together. They were 19th

29:05in scoring. Right now, the betting markets have the Eagles 12th. I can see them finishing seventh in scoring if Shawn Manion uh bounces back. The

29:12offensive line is all returning. Uh they just didn't play well last year. They're all banged up. Right now, Lane Johnson after training camp today said, "What I

29:19like about this is everything looks complex to the defense. To the offense, it's actually pretty simplified." Goes on to say, "The O line is it's the most

29:27friendly and maybe the past couple years he's been involved in. uh more under center stuff, just more different types of runs, more outside zone stuff. Uh I

29:36thought their offense was very predictable, like Lane Johnson was kind of laying out last year. All that stuff is going to help him out. And then plus,

29:41there's some positive regression stuff with Saquon Barkley. Last year, he had 11 carries inside the five yard line. He scored one rushing touchdown on them.

29:49Like that's, you know, that's not a Saquon Barkley stuff. That was just like Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson. They weren't healthy. And then, you know, uh

29:55Lane Johnson missed nine games. We also just talked to to Ryan in a previous episode. Maybe the tush push kind of

30:01dials back a little bit and they might have to do some other things because like some other things be like under

30:06center run to uh to Saquon Barkley this year like maybe like the the Jaylen Herz Saquon rushing touchdowns kind of even

30:12out a little bit this year more so than in other years. So I think lots of reasons to be back on the optimistic

30:17side for Saquon.

30:18>> I feel about Saquon like it did about CMC this time last year. I like that >> in that we just saw this guy win healthy

30:26rank as the number one running back and like the guy you needed in multiple seasons and because of a down season

30:33albeit CMC's was due to health and everyone drafting him that high it left like a bad taste in their mouth so they

30:38don't want to do it again the next year >> we're just getting crazy value to the point Hayden I don't know how on every

30:44single platform all of you are confidently drafting Ash and Gentyhead of Saquon Barkley that makes zero sense to to me. I mean, we're talking about an

30:52offense in the Eagles that's projected to score 24 points per game versus the Raiders at 19. Uh, you're expecting Ashen Genty behind a worse offensive

31:00line to score better than Saquon Barkley, who has a better offensive line and has already done it previously. I know the age gap is there. We're talking

31:07about a year two Ashen Genty, but that one just doesn't make any sense to me. I mean, again, two years ago in a good

31:13environment, Saquon Barkley had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, and 23 yards. than last year just two touchdown runs of longer than 13. So

31:23I've said this in a bunch of places I want to say it in our show but I guess Saquon Barkley is like my biggest flag

31:28plant this year and that >> I like it >> should not be like a huge statement but according to drafts where he's going

31:34anywhere from like the first pick of the second round to like the fifth pick of the second round. It seems like it is.

31:39>> This is what I'm talking about where at the one two turn I want like real upside 20 plus points per game type of upside.

31:46Saquin has like literally done it before. So I I do like taking the swing there. Alo AJ Brown not being involved

31:52like could we see you know 10 more targets through across the season to Saquon Barkley to kind of break some ties like I think all those type of

31:57things are possible.

31:58>> I do want to say I'm also drafting Tank Bsby as like the best handcuff in Facebook football this season too. So if

32:04you're not drafting Saquon Barkley if you're playing best or really deep rosters in your league. Draft Tank Bsby because if you don't believe in Saquon

32:12then you should probably believe in Tank Bsby this year.

32:15>> Okay. I think we've both covered our eighth overall players where you have Aman Rossin Brown and I have Jackson Smith and Jigba. If you have no more

32:24thoughts on those names, let's jump to number nine.

32:28>> I've got Justin Jefferson. I'm ahead of Yahoo ADP at 11. Best ball slot ahead as well. I think Kyler Murray is going to

32:36be a big deal. Uh, I think if you throw out the 2025 season from the Vikings, which was horrific, uh, we're talking

32:42about Justin Jefferson averaging the most PPR points per game from 2022 to 2024. It's a three-year sample at over 20 points per game. Uh, if we remove the

32:52Josh Dobs and Jiren Hall games, there's been a lot of, you know, really bad quarterback games from Justin Jefferson.

32:58If Kyler Murray is a lot closer to Kurt Cousins, Sam Darnold tier, which if you just would have pulled us like a year

33:03ago, we would have said like absolutely he's in that tier. Uh, I think he's going to go back to where he was where

33:09at one point he had the most receiving yards per game in NFL history around 100. Now that's belongs to Puk and Aua.

33:16They were 26 in in points per game last year. I can see them being right around the top 10 if Kyler Murray like really

33:22comes along and I don't even think that he has to come along that much. Uh Justin Jefferson is going to go crazy.

33:27This is a very pass heavy offense.

33:29Always has been. That will not change with Kyler Murray. Uh, and Kyler, don't forget he had DeAndre Hopkins had 88 yards per game in 2020 with Kyler.

33:38Another 80 yards per game for DeAndre Hopkins. And then Trey McBride did have 72 yards per game as a damn tight end

33:44with Kyler Murray. Um, so like this narrative that Kyler Murray can't get it done with his top option. I think there's a difference between like prime

33:51Justin Jefferson versus like the hope of Marvin Harrison over the last couple seasons.

33:56>> Justin Jefferson's also my ninth ranked players who are back on track here together. We really are getting a discount and you outlined it well on one

34:03of the best wide receivers in the league because this offense finished 26 in scoring last year and you know the year

34:08before that with Sam Darnold they finished ninth in scoring in 2022. They finished eighth in scoring as you noted Nick Mullins, Josh Dobs, a lot of other

34:17guys have played in this offense. Uh it never looked worse than when JJ McCarthy was >> until until Brosmer showed up. Then

34:23>> untilmer showed up. Yes, that that's fair. But despite all of that and like the 26 and scoring, Justin Jefferson still was wide receiver four in team

34:32targets, was still wide receiver five in air yards. He still had 16 endzone targets, but only scored two touchdowns off of those. So

34:42everything was still going in his direction. The design of the system was still to get Justin Jefferson the football. The quarterbacks just simply

34:49couldn't do it. So, while I am not like a Kyler Murray apologist, I I think that his play has not been great over the

34:57past couple of seasons, especially at the start of last year. All I'm asking is for Kyler Murray to follow the design

35:03of the play, like trust what Kevin Okano is building, and you know, stand tall versus pressure, fire over the middle of

35:10the field. And if he does that, then Justin Jefferson's going to get right back on track and uh make us look good

35:15because we both have him above the 11th overall pick right now on Yahoo. And for stacking purposes, I do like the Kyler

35:20Murray price tag as well. So, I think I think there was kind of a big tier break after the top eightish so players. Um,

35:27like I think the difference between the Aman Rossi and Brown safety versus the Justin Jefferson like is a to me is like

35:32a mini tier right there. Uh, the Saquon Jonathan Taylor stuff, you know, like that's kind of like a totally different discussion. I think that Justin

35:39Jefferson is going to get back to the Aman Ros tier in terms of fantasy production. But you have to admit like

35:45Aman Ro's safety versus the Justin Jefferson safety. Like there is a little bit of a difference right now.

35:49>> Totally. However, we are talking about the guy that finished wide receiver three in points per game with Sam Darnold and was the wide receiver five

35:55and points per game with Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullins.

35:57>> Yeah. [laughter] >> I don't know. I think all these guys are pretty freaking good at football.

36:02>> They're sweet.

36:03>> Okay. Have you already talked about your 10th overall player? That's where I had Saquon and you had JT. Yep.

36:08>> Yes. All right. That brings us to number 11. Who do you have ranked 11th?

36:13>> I think this is where it gets really difficult. Um, I'm going with CD Lamb.

36:16He is the ninth overall player in in baseball and Yahoo ADP right now. I think there's going to be a difference

36:22between like the prime CD Lamb years versus the one where he's now uh splitting time with George Pickins. I don't want to overstate that difference

36:29though either though because uh with George Pickkins balling out, Lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share. He was a wide

36:39receiver eight on wide receiver six usage. He only scored uh a quarter touchdowns per game. Usually that's like 37. Uh so he was not running Todd on

36:49touchdowns this last season. I think that's kind of explains the difference between like where he was previously.

36:54Obviously 26% target share still strong at points it was over 30%. I think those little differences are the reason why we

37:01talk about CD Lamb here versus you know next to JSN but this is still the second uh fastest neutral paced offense.

37:08They're still top six and projected points this season. CD Lamb's projected for,200 yards this year. Uh the offensive line looks in good shape. Uh

37:16head coach OC all back. Um so I feel really good about all this.

37:20>> Yeah I also have CD Lamb as my 11th overall player. However, I was writing all my notes and I couldn't tell how confident I was

37:29in it as I got through it all. Not not because I don't think CD Lamb is is amazing. It did concern me though that

37:36he actually ran a career low of routes from the slot last year at what, like 35% of his snaps, which is pretty crazy

37:45to me. Now, obviously ankle injury in in week three uh stands out and then maybe the quote unquote emergence of Ryan

37:53Florenoi who is mostly a slot player maybe kept CD Lamb to the outside a bit more often compared to like the Jaylen

37:59Tolberts and whoever else of the world because I I think like that's where he his really specialness comes from is this outside to inside outside stuff and

38:08you know in our minds we were all telling people to draft George Piggin last year I'm sure many of you did that

38:12worked out incredibly well where George Pickins finishes the wide receiver six in points per game compared to CD Lamb's wide receiver 11 in points per game. At

38:22the end of the day though, I just came back to like variance just wasn't on his side. I think I read that he ranked

38:26200th across fantasy football and points over expected. So, uh he was on like a very negative end of all of that and

38:35only converted two of his 12 targets in the end zone for touchdowns last year.

38:39Yeah, my expected points. He was the wide receiver uh nine at 16.1 only scored 15.5, which usually elite players are like clearly outscoring their

38:48expected points. He was actually below expectation there, which like you said when Dak Prescott's dialed in at CD Lambs. I mean, he had a couple like

38:55pretty key drops where he's like, "Oh, what the hell is going on there?" That stuff's going to kind of even out. But I

38:59think I think your point is true. If I read my Drake London notes and look at the the market projections for him

39:06versus CD Lamb, there's like no difference. their ADP is is widely, >> but the quarterback difference is massive.

39:12>> That's that's the difference uh alone.

39:14Um but I I do think that we're talking about a kind of a different tier here.

39:18And I think some of these running backs, if you really believe in the upside, I do think you can rank them ahead of the

39:23Justin Jefferson CD Lamb tier.

39:25>> Interesting. I I would almost put it as there's a top 10, then 11th I would put CD Lamb and then I have a fascinating

39:33cluster of running backs here from 12 to >> many many picks.

39:37>> This is where the episode starts right here.

39:39>> Yes. [laughter] >> Yeah. Thanks for joining us. What uh 40 minutes in to the episode. All right.

39:45With that said, who is your 12th overall player?

39:47>> I got Kenneth Walker here. I'm taking a stand. Uh I feel really good about this after writing down all my notes. By the

39:55way, on Yahoo, his ADP is at 21. So, this is way, way different. I think if you can get him in the middle or the end

40:01of the second round, you're in really good shape. Want to go back to Andy Reed, do a little deep dive here. Back

40:07in the day, he had Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Charles, Shawn McCoy.

40:11If you guys were playing fantasy football then and you had those running backs on your team, you were winning your fantasy league. And there at one

40:17point before we got to Kareem Hunt and Clyde Edward and those guys, >> Andy Reid was thought of as like the

40:23running back fantasy creator. And he actually like Kenneth Walker reminds me of LeShawn McCoy in the final three seasons with Shady and Andy Reid. His

40:3417g game pace was 1,800 uh scrimmage yards. There's no RB2 on this team. Like EMTT Johnson is this big. Was not a fan

40:41of as a prospect. Amari Di Marcado is kind of a pass catching change of pace guy. Like we're talking about very

40:47low-end backups. And with Patrick Mahomes, I don't think he's moving all that great in camp. It's good to see him out there. I think he's going to play

40:53week one most likely. I don't think he's going to be himself. Bring back Benmy, who's better than Matt Naggie. And then

40:58for Kenneth Walker himself, I think it's the best offensive line he's ever played behind. Those Seahawks offensive lines throughout his rookie contract weren't

41:05very good. I think Kenneth Walker is going to set a careerhigh in targets by a lot. I think his rushing numbers are

41:10going to look fantastic on a in terms of efficiency. And I don't think that this offense could afford to not give him the

41:15ball 20 plus times per game. If that happens, he has a chance to finish in that top four mix.

41:20>> This is the old adage that there's always someone higher than you on a player that you think you're well above

41:25ADP on. And that's the case here. I mean, I have Ken Walker as a 13th overall player and like you said, he's

41:31going as a ninth pick in the second round on Yahoo. Uh he's >> a little bit ahead of that in baseball

41:37right now.

41:38I I I just see a phenomenal talent that once he was given the platform to showcase that in the most important

41:45games and like some of the most difficult defenses that he faced, guess what? He ran through them. He ran around him and he ran over them. Uh I know he

41:53was drafted last year as the running back 10. Some of that was because of us.

41:58Uh and finished as the running back 28.

42:00>> We were right by the way. Look at the Super Bowl.

42:01>> We were right in [laughter] the end because if he was given the work, look what happens. And we always say, Hayden,

42:07that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks. When you look at the Chiefs offense this year, the only substantial move that they made

42:16both in the draft and in free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free for free

42:17agency was bringing in Ken Walker the third. Like, yeah, >> I understand if you look through their rushing attack last year and the

42:23underlying metrics, they had a high success rate. Now, a lot of that was because of Patrick Mahomes's scrambling and, you know, if they needed two yards,

42:30Kareem Hunt could get them three. They were hitting kind of singles in the running game. But what they told you by

42:36paying K9 is that that doesn't matter very much. That that only gets you so far and that you have to generate

42:43explosives, especially if you can't create them in the passing game. And guess what? Now they can do that because Ken Walker is a game breaker. He's a

42:50gamecher. Uh and I cannot wait until he is behind, you know, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith and the rest of this

42:57offensive line because I'm with you, like the history shows itself that Andy Reid whispers to running backs and they have >> Oh, yeah. I mean, Kareem Hunt's rookie

43:04season was phenomenal. If we get that from K9, then uh let's boogie.

43:08>> Yeah. Last three games, the postseason games, he had 35, 21, and 18 fantasy points as the bellcow here. Like that's

43:15like the pathway that we're we're going for. I also believe that he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. Like

43:21I I think that we're going to like look at him as like one of the top tier like not a top like tier two, tier three

43:26running back, like in the discussion as like a top five, top 10 running back across the league.

43:30>> Yeah. I mean, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game over his last 26 games that he's reached 60%

43:37snaps. I expect him to reach 60% snaps in every single game this season. Uh yeah, I mean, I think this offense

43:44ranked like 20th in explosive carries last year. Disgusting.

43:47>> It's going to go to the moon.

43:49>> He also two years ago caught over four passes per game. It was across 11. Like the sample size of him like being able

43:55to catch passes, I think it's been proven like he has an upside there.

43:57>> I I'm right there with you. Now, unfortunately, my 12th overall player is James Cook, who I'm actually slightly behind Yahoo's ADP on. They have him

44:0610th overall, and I have him 12th overall. Um, to me, his fantasy appeal completely changed over the last two years since he took on the red zone

44:15rushing role among the running backs here for the Bills. I mean, in 2023, he had one rushing score inside the 10 yard

44:22line. move on to 2024, he had the eighth most carries inside the 10 and 11 touchdowns. Last year, again, the eighth

44:30most carries inside the 10 yard line and six touchdowns. And then if you look at un other underlying metrics for James

44:35Cook, they're all fantastic because guess what? This is a really freaking cool offense to run the football in. I mean, second in yards per rush, ninth in

44:44success rate, eighth in rate of runs of 10 plus yards, and then in terms of stuff rate, he had the second best mark

44:50in the league. So, yes, they did lose their left guard and yes, they added DJ Moore in the passing game, but I still

44:57think that James Cook, despite me, you know, bringing up Ray Davis as a really nice backup running back every single year and some other guys they have on

45:04the roster, too, uh, James Cook, I think, has established himself as like an explosive player and a very successful player in this offense.

45:11>> I got James Cook, uh, ranked 14th. He's somebody I've not been drafting a whole lot of. I don't have too many negative

45:17notes here. just breaking ties in favor of backs I think have a higher ceiling just because he's just not caught that

45:23many passes and I think there's like a reason for that such as you have Josh Allen I need to check the ball down and

45:27I think adding TJ Moore who I think they should be getting in the manufacturer touch department maybe Dalton Concaid could stay healthier this year than

45:34where he was this last season like those are the type of guys obviously Khil Shakir you like dink and dunk to and

45:40James Cook is like yeah yeah and Ty Johnson plays like real snaps in like two-minute drill and those type of things where I think James Cook

45:47something would have to drastically change with his role to finish as like the RB1. That's fine. He was the RB6 last year. He led the NFL most carries

45:56per game 19 and a half. Rushing yards per game at 98 and a half. All of it was actually sustainable, too. Like 5.1

46:02yards per carry is totally reasonable.

46:04When you play against or next to a dual threat, you're good. The offensive line's good.

46:10>> The other thing is like you lose your offensive line coach, your coordinator is now a head coach for the first time.

46:15Like you lost a veteran guard. like these little things. I don't think they're going to make that big of a difference here. But um in terms of like

46:21dreaming of like some total total crazy ceiling, I think I just see it more with like the Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker,

46:28Devon Aen range rather than James Cook.

46:30But I think the floor is like completely established here. Him in the second round makes a lot of sense.

46:35>> Your point on him likely not having a running back one overall season in his range of outcomes is a fair one. Again,

46:44I would rank Bejon, Jir, CMC, Saquon, and Jonathan Taylor with, you know, a higher likelihood of that. I mean, K9

46:54maybe than James Cook probably, but then I I just look at this environment and think maybe this is hitting a triple,

47:01but maybe I'm okay hitting and then and then [clears throat] someone else can, you know, get me to home base at the

47:05end.

47:05>> Yes, I I think that's totally fair. I was just looking at his ADP was 10th overall and I I feel like usually

47:10there's a little bit higher of a ceiling, but his floor is >> outstanding when you're in this this offense. He's a very good player in the

47:16prime of his career. Four out of five offensive linemen are returning. Same play caller as it was this last season.

47:21He's good. Uh you know, I don't have too many negative notes here.

47:24>> And if you play full PPR, Reeves noted this that James Cook has been a top 13 scorer in 20 of his 33 games over the

47:31past two seasons. Only Bejon and Jir Gibbs have more.

47:34>> Yep. So, he keeps you in it every single week is one way of putting it.

47:38>> All right, Ken Walker is my 13th overall player. Who's your 13th overall player?

47:42>> I've got Devon Aan at 13th overall here.

47:45I understand the downside risk. You lose Mike McDaniel, who is excellent. Uh Malik Willis instead of Tua. I understand the concerns. I'm also

47:53looking at it where I know I have a superstar talent. I think the Dolphins offensive line is actually pretty dang good. I mean, Patrick Paul emerged as a

48:03really strong left tackle, a really freak athlete, young player, getting better. Aaron Brewer, uh, Brandon Thorne, uh, said he was the best

48:11offensive lineman in the NFL. You can watch a highlight tape of Aaron Brewer getting to the second level and absolutely just shredding dudes. And

48:17then Kaden Proctor is their left guard.

48:19So, like their entire left side to me looks really good. Ken Proctor's 360 pounds, moves well. Uh, and I don't like

48:26Sloic that much, but he at least was there with Devon AJ last year and Mike Mandle. They're going to pick up on, you

48:31know, get get Devonte Chain the ball on the outside and like figure things out.

48:34And then you look at the receiving work.

48:36How could he not finish with 80 plus targets this year? I mean, look at the receivers. Like I I think even with

48:41Malik Willis, isn't he like near the bottom of the list in terms of targeting running backs? I know this is like a

48:46tiny sample we're talking with here, but typically scrambling quarterbacks do not throw to their running. I think it's inexcusable to not scheme up four

48:53targets to Devonte Chain per game, no no matter what. And like to me it should even be higher than that. Like you

48:58they're going to throw the ball. Every offense still throws the ball 25 plus times per game. Like you can only get so

49:03many targets to everybody else. I think it's way too easy to get Devon in the ball. And last note, I'll I'll say

49:09losing Mike McDaniel does hurt. But having a dual having a dual threat quarterback next to you also opens up another about one uh plus yards per

49:19carry more. We see this across every single running back in scheme out there.

49:23We have not seen Devon with a threat next to you like stopping the zone read with Malik uh uh Willis and Devon is

49:30going to be a problem. So I think there's just no way that the Dolphins could not build their entire offense around him. Even if they're bad, I think

49:37he still gets it done.

49:38>> This hurts me so much. You know, last summer I was just relentlessly drafting.

49:42Devon Achan was one of my highest drafted players if I was close to the turn. I think he's a superstar in the

49:48league. one of the more unsung superstars because he's not just an inspace runner. He actually can take break tackles between the tackles, too.

49:54He's he's very successful there. Hayden Devon is my 18th overall player. I mean, maybe I'm wrong. I I am I'm a bit terrified by this environment

50:06and it goes from like the play caller to the offensive line and to losing Mike McDaniel. Again, we just had Ryan on the

50:12show yesterday and Mike McDaniel in terms of 10 plus yard design runs over 70 games coached ranks third. Guess where Bobby Slo ranks? You know, 19.

50:22>> How much is that a Devon Aan stat though? I think that's the hard part to detangle here.

50:25>> There's also Moser, but I mean Mike McDaniel also was the architect of Kyle Shanahan's rushing game. Like he has been doing this for a very, very, very

50:33long time. And I know Bobby Slo during his time with the Houston Texans. And I've actually been a bit of an apologist

50:38for Bobby Slowick because that rookie season for with CJ Stradout. Uh he's just never had it that great of a rushing attack other than, you know, Joe

50:45Mixon's, let's say, not 12th overall player rushing stuff. And then if you look at, you know, avoiding negative runs, uh

50:54Bobby Slugg's 25th on that list. So >> I love Devon Achan. I actually like Malik Willis as a late round quarterback

51:05dart because the rushing gives you the floor and then the passing is the upside. Greg Doulich is like a tight end

51:12sleeper here. I just don't know among all this cluster of running backs. I mean I I think I have the most

51:18environmental questions about Devon Chan and maybe that's clouding my judgment here too much.

51:22>> I think this we got to remember where we're starting off with. He averaged 20 fantasy points per game last year, you

51:26know, in full.

51:28>> It's a totally different group.

51:30chop off four fantasy points, five fantasy points per game, he still finishes in this range. Like I think the starting point is so high. I don't

51:37remember the Dolphins lighting it up last year and he was still the RB5 on RB5 usage because the the receiving work, the rushing, the run system, like

51:46all of it was so exceptional. So exceptional. I just don't think it's going to be. And look, like you said, I

51:52think we do forget that Bobby Sloick coached under Mike McDaniel last year, so maybe he did pick up on a lot of

51:57stuff, but their offenses, the last time that Sloick had a system that he designed, look totally different than what they ran last year.

52:03>> Yeah. Yeah. For sure. For sure. Bobby Sick's got to step up here. Absolutely.

52:07Fully believe in you. And still, the Dolphins are going to pick up touchdowns and yards this year and receptions.

52:12Like, we have to throw them to somebody.

52:14Like, I think Devon would probably be a good start. We do plan on doing a round two and three version of this as well.

52:20So I'll have a lot more to say about Devon Achan during that time unless I move him to, you know, the 15th overall

52:25player or the 12th overall player by by that point. Okay. I already mentioned that my 13th overall player is Ken Walker the third. So we're back to you

52:33Hayden. Who is your 14th?

52:34>> I that's where I had James Cook. So back to you.

52:36>> Okay. Well, this is where I have Amaran Hampton. So maybe this is a similar conversation to one that we we just had.

52:41Yeah. I mean I don't want to just continue to wax poetic around Mike McDaniel, but guess what? Like that's a major factor in why I have Amarin

52:50Hampton ranked this high. I mean running backs attached to Mike McDaniel over the last three years. Devon Achin ranked as the running back five in points per game

52:57last season. Running back 11 in points per game the year before that. And yeah, I mean in 2023 he had both the running

53:04back three and running back four in points per game. And just the environment that McDaniel brings to the system. I mean, in Miami, his offense is

53:12ranked fifth in yards per rush, fifth in success rate, and first in explosive plays. And so, you look at Amarin Hampton, who has outstanding speed for

53:21his size. That's what pops off immediately for me. Like, I I don't think he necessarily has a great feel for the position in terms of setting up

53:27defenders or lanes. He has like a a different way of attacking Final Contact where he like spins and twists and turns

53:34all around it. But I'm kind of at the point where I want to set aside my individual evaluation of Amarin Hampton

53:41and just believe in what is being created here because the Chargers also have the fifth best offensive line according to Brandon Thorne. Uh and if

53:50you give Amarin Hampton space on 52 runs when he was contacted beyond the line of scrimmage last season, he averaged 7.4

53:58yards per carry, which was seventh in the league. And he's going to get that way more than 52 times this season. I

54:04got a Marian Hampton 22nd overall. This is I would label this as like the scariest fade of the season for me

54:11because like he's got home run ability.

54:13He's a goal lineback and this offense could go absolutely crazy here. I just think the the the possible reasons why he finishes closer as like a low-end RB1

54:21is this turns into maybe a little bit more of a committee than some of the other backs in there. I didn't love

54:25Hampton's pass protection. I that this is like not the biggest like concern, but I do think Kamani Vidal is good at

54:31that. And this might be more of a three running back rotation than a lot of like the either no rotation or the one-two

54:37punch rotations of the other guys around him. But if he's so good, then like screw Kamani Ball and Keaton Mitchell and that's how he can finish as a top

54:44five fantasy running back. Um maybe I just like don't love those odds versus where he's going. Um I was also looking

54:50at the Mike McDaniel stuff. Uh this last season, defenses were treating the rushing scheme a lot different and way fewer too high shell looks uh for for

55:00their rush attempts. Only 16% of the Dolphins run last year.

55:03>> Throw it down the field.

55:04>> Exactly. So, I think that's going to be the the interesting part of this offense is how are defenses going to be scared

55:10of the two high shell because that's where Mike McDaniel was absolutely ripping these runs across and you just like get into the perimeter and Devon is

55:15just picking up 10 yards per carry or do they rotate him in the box and then make Justin Herbert went over the top and

55:23that would be pretty exciting too. I think it's gonna be really good offense to kind of figure that out. But I do

55:26think that defenses have found some adjustments to like the peak seasons of like 2023 and crowding the box is is kind of one of them. Uh, I think you are

55:35right if he plays more of the passing down situations and if Katon Mitchell is not averaging eight carries per game and

55:41that's back to five, four, five carries per game. And then I might be right if Vid Doll is mixing in and Katon

55:47Mitchell's getting eight carries per game and then he's a electric player but kind of inconsistent versus the other guys around. But I think a very

55:54difficult one and if you wanted to rank him as high as like 10th overall like I do see that the the upside here. At the

56:00same time, I think there's a chance for like everyone gets home in this offense.

56:05I mean, you know, the 2023 Miami Dolphins with Tua at quarterback scored the second most points at 29 per contest. And again, that was when they

56:13had two top four scoring running backs in point points per game. We know what Tyreek Hill and Jaylen W, whoever else

56:18you want to throw in there, >> did that season, too. So, like, there's a chance that everything is so good that

56:23it's not, hey, you have to take from this guy to give to this guy. That they all just get there with efficiency and

56:28stuff. And I think that is in the range of outcomes here. And I'll throw in that Demar and Hampton caught five or more

56:33passes in four of his games played last year. So I think there's a chance where >> they have some heavier looks where they

56:40keep in Charlie Kolar or they keep in Alec Ingold to help with this protection and then they run like two main routes

56:47down the field with Omar and Hampton like slipping out and like that's how he can get four, five, six catches per game

56:53too.

56:54>> That's a great point too. Omar and Hampton just his receiving work is hard to get a good feel for because as a

56:59receiver I think he's very good and then in pass protection I thought he had no clue where he was going uh last year. So

57:05it's like another one of these things where it's like I know he's going to catch a bunch of passes. It has to be

57:08kind of schemed up for him, but Mike is a pretty good guy to be in charge of that. So >> all right, put a pin in that for our

57:14round two three conversation here in the next couple weeks. All right, we'll close it out here with our 15th overall player. Who's yours?

57:20>> I got Ashen Genty here. There's a couple other players I have in consideration like mainly Derrick Henry. I keep going

57:25back and forth, so maybe if you have some notes to kind of split this tie for me. Let's start with Genty because he's

57:30uh 11th in baseball EDP. He's 12th in Yahoo ADP. And then I I know a lot of sharp people even have him higher than

57:37that. Starting point last year, RB11 usage like did not come off the field.

57:42Finishes the RB16 in half PPR.

57:44Obviously, the offensive line, Chip Kelly, everything was a stone cold disaster. That's going to get better.

57:49That's enough for him to finish as a top 10 fantasy running back this year. If he doesn't, that is a really really bad bad

57:55sign. My individual uh opinion on Ashton Genty is that I also thought he was making bad decisions and not did not

58:03have the play speed versus all the guys he's being drafted against. And I fear that he's going to be closer to Josh

58:09Jacobs who I really like his rushing style, but it's a different tier player.

58:12And the offensive line's getting better.

58:14Linder Bomb, Colton Miller coming back at left tackle. But the other guard spots I think are still pretty bad. uh DJ Glaze, the right tackle, that's still

58:22pretty bad out there. Um and the entire offense like still could be be pretty bad even if we think that they're going

58:29to get a little bit better. Uh >> supposed to be the pro case here as your 15th overall player. [laughter] >> Well, he's not coming off the field. So,

58:36there's that. And I could be wrong.

58:38That's the other thing. It's like he could be awesome. Like he he's supposed to be awesome. I just wasn't getting the

58:43senses that he's gonna like go crazy in terms of like now he's just like ripping off explosives left and right and it's

58:49like Saquon Barkley. I just don't think I saw Saquon Barkley on tape last year even taking in the obviously bad environment.

58:56>> Yeah. What I loved about Ashen Genty coming out of Boise State was his run stamina. How he could break like three,

59:02four tackles in the same run and that would allow him to get you know 40 50 yard touchdown runs and then it wouldn't

59:08just be one time in a game. it would be multiple times in a game. And that style is just more difficult in the NFL and

59:14it's especially difficult when probably at best you have an average offensive line and last year obviously maybe the league worst offensive line. It's

59:22interesting. I'm I'm looking at our colleagues here at Yahoo and you and I rank Ashen Genty by far the lowest.

59:28You're at 15th overall. I'm at 17th overall. Uh I don't want to out people but like Joel Smith has him at ninth

59:34overall. Harmon and Boone have him 11th overall. That's just too rich for me.

59:39And again, I just don't see how anyone can take, you know, him over Saquon Barkley, even if, you know, Ashen Genty

59:46plays 88% of the snaps this year. I I just think like from an environmental standpoint, and like big play potential, uh, Saquon's just a better pick here.

59:55>> I agree. There was a really cool research by Sam Hoppin, if you guys want to go read this column, where he was

60:00looking at yards before contact, which everyone's like, that's a offensive line stat, and to some degree it is an offensive line stat. He was trying to

60:07come up with like ways to like factor in what should the expected yards before contact. And when he was looking at

60:12that, it's like, okay, are you running towards the perimeter? You get more yards before contact. That makes sense.

60:17How many defenders in the box is there that makes sense to account for? He started accounting for all these variables, including the offensive line,

60:23including the dual threat ability of the quarterback. And then he looked at what are the running backs doing, accounting for all the environment. And Ashen Genty

60:32was the worst running back in football in terms of avoiding yards before contact, running into defenders, staying behind the line of scrimmage for too

60:40long where where players are coming and rallying before him. It was like the only running back to finish like below uh a certain point. And that's

60:49concerning because that's kind of what I was seeing on tape and like if you like the really really sickos and that know

60:54all this modeling and stuff, that's what they're coming up with too. Uh, it makes me a little bit nervous that he's going

60:59to be a fine player, but not, you know, the next Bejon, Saquon, those type of guys.

61:04>> Can we just take a moment for strategy corner real quick? Because if you're, I don't know, pick 10, 11, 12. Again,

61:12there's this cluster of running backs.

61:13You can go from James Cook, Genty, Zaquin, Achan, Chase Brown, Hampton, Dererick Henry. Choose two of your favorites. going with two of those and

61:23comparing that to let's say the running backs in round five and six which are you know Dave Montgomery, Trevian Henderson, Quinn John Judkins, Bucky

61:33Irving to you know round six that's Chuba Hubard Jadarian Price versus you know the wide receivers that are in rounds five and six Terry McLaren Luther

61:44Burton Christian Watson Roma Dunay Mike Evans I mean the list goes on and on like I I would much rather take the

61:51package that it's those two early running backs and the two later wide receivers versus the two early wide receivers or even just one early wide

61:59receiver and then having to take one of those running backs in that range too.

62:02>> I see the same thing. I'll even say the round three four turn has every one of the wide receivers that we are trying to

62:07break ties in in favor of Jaylen Wald Malik Neighbors in that tier. Lad Maki, Mecha Ibuka, you can pick a veteran and

62:14a young guy like Zay Flowers.

62:16>> There's literally 12 of them. Uh you can go wide receiver, wide receiver in that range as well. So >> yeah, I I think Derrick Henry is like

62:24the one name I regret not like in involving in here just because, you know, he just, you know, uh finished as

62:30the uh RB8 with Lamar Jackson not even playing that season. Uh and he's projected for 12 and a half touchdowns in in the betting markets. That's the

62:38most rushing touchdowns uh in the NFL in the projections. And you know, he's not a top 15 guy in half PPR. That that

62:43might come back to bite us again.

62:45>> Yeah, maybe I'll regret it too because he's not my 15th overall player. But hey, that that's a great lead into again

62:50when we do the round two three show and uh you guys should subscribe to watch that one when it comes out and hits your

62:55feed. My 15th overall player is Chase Brown.

62:58>> Okay.

62:58>> Uh and this is kind of again drafting the environment over the individual talent. Like as an individual player, I don't think Chase Brown belongs in that

63:07group of all the running backs that we just listed. Uh so again, maybe that comes back to bite me, but what you are

63:14getting here is just a team that scores a whole bunch of points and literally zero competition. And it's not just competition between the 20s. It's also

63:23once you get inside the red zone where Chase Brown played 74% of the snaps last year, which is the running back five on

63:30the season. Um obviously it was a bad start to last year. We all kind of regretted cha taking Chase Brown and

63:35that was, you know, aided by Joe Burrow going down. But once Joe Flacco was named the starter instead of Jake Browning, they averaged he averaged 105

63:44yards from scrimmage over the last 11 weeks was the eighth most among all backs. Um and then when Joe Burrow returned, you know, peak form of this

63:52team, Apex Mountain, Chase Brown went nuclear. I mean, he was seven, excuse me, second in running back points per game, uh and hit, you know, 20 points

64:02per contest and half PPR scoring, which is exactly what you want. So, the environment is simply sensational.

64:09They've returned all five starting offensive linemen. If they stay healthy, then at worst, I think this is like a league average offensive line. And uh

64:18again, that's just a situation that I want pieces of. And uh Chase Brown in round two uh is really appealing to me.

64:26>> Over the past two seasons, there's 21 games with Joe Burrow. He's the RB12 and RB5 usage. So, like that goes to your

64:32point where he's like not like the greatest player ever, but he's he's a starting level player in this league.

64:37Just in 2025 though, there was six games with Burrow. He was the RB5 on RB4 overall usage. Um, so >> team's getting better. The offensive

64:47line's way better now than it was before. Like that's where like Chase Brown could like become one of these guys that's like a no doubt about it,

64:54top 10 fantasy running back. And then we're like looking at our Genty teams.

64:57We're like, damn. Like I'm watching Raiders games versus Bengals games and I got >> I got the Raiders running back.

65:03>> Here's a crazy stat for you from Reaps.

65:05The Bengals are currently favored in 15 games this year heading into the season.

65:09>> They can win the Super Bowl. Like obviously that's how good this team is.

65:14>> 15 games they're favored in. And you know, running back points are pretty freaking good in in games that you win.

65:19Oh, and guess what? if they have to throw the ball and they're trailing, uh, only Devon Achan, Bejian Robinson, and Jir Gibbs have more receptions than

65:26Chase Brown over the past two seasons.

65:29>> And I got the inverse of that. Uh, three or, uh, three or fewer yards to go. Uh, he was the RB2 and rush yards over

65:36expected. He was RB8 and rushing success rate across all of the Burrow games.

65:41Three yards, four yards, doesn't matter.

65:43Um, so the efficiency rebounded as a rusher. And I think that's a credit to like the Amarius Mims picks in the first

65:49round just kind of figure out some of the guard spots that they have out there where all of a sudden the offensive line

65:54you can like credibly say it's like a league average offensive line not you know 30th in the NFL.

65:59>> Yeah. But you know keep drafting players on bad teams ahead of him. [laughter] >> I think I need to move up. I need to

66:06move up Chase Brown. If you read my Chase Brown in my Ash and Genty thing, you'd be like it's not even close. So yeah.

66:12>> Oh, I love it. I absolutely love it.

66:13What can go wrong? Uh, let's save the best for last. You ready? Stats vs. Film returns tomorrow. So, you get a Stats

66:19vs. film episode for your weekend. So, if you made it over an hour into this episode, let us know in the comments

66:25down below who we did not mention in our top 15s that you have in your top 15s.

66:30And let's say the biggest home run swing and shout. Uh, I'll give a big massive comment to down below. So, let us know

66:38who you rank in your top 15. That's going to do it for us. Shout out to Weeaves and Mosho behind the scenes. I

66:43know all of you want our rankings. We'll have an announcement for that very, very soon for all of you to grab them and use

66:50them in your drafts this year. All right, everyone. Up the bill. We'll talk to you guys soon. See you.

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Get out of the spreadsheets and draft Ricky Pearsall 😤 artwork

Get out of the spreadsheets and draft Ricky Pearsall 😤

Jul 28, 2026