NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Thursday, July 2, 2026

Carnell Tate separation vs. zone 👀 Safeties are in hell when Tate steps on the field.

Carnell Tate is nasty. Efficiency of movement like this at his size makes Tate so dangerous.

Ladd McConkey rage bait that I compiled for @​RyanJ_Heath and am now cursing your timeline with:

Tucker Kraft

Which of these WRs has the best chance to finish as the overall WR1?

Which of these WRs has the best chance to finish as the overall WR1?

Which of these WRs has the best chance to finish as the overall WR1?

Which of these WRs has the best chance to finish as the overall WR1?

Traded to Houston before 2024 season; his departure opened slot role for Parker Washington. Kirk's trade was the catalyst for Washington's 58 rec, 847 yard, 5 TD season.

Jaguars QB; community questions whether his mid-season 2024 improvement was sustainable or a hot streak. Some note Washington had excellent chemistry with Lawrence before Hunter injury; others skeptical Lawrence will maintain elevated play. Uncertainty about Lawrence's consistency directly impacts Washington's target volume and efficiency.

2021 slot WR under Liam Coen at Kentucky: 102.6 receiving YPG. Cited as historical precedent for Coen's slot WR system success in college, supporting Parker Washington's projection.

2022 slot WR under Liam Coen with LA Rams: 22.4 FPG (~WR1). Cited as historical precedent for Coen's slot WR system elite production, supporting Parker Washington's upside.

2024 slot WR under Liam Coen: 19.7 FPG (~WR2). Cited as historical precedent for Coen's slot WR system success, supporting Parker Washington's projection.

Two-way player (CB/WR) returning; biggest wildcard for Washington's WR snap share. Community split: some believe Hunter will be primarily CB with gadget WR role (limiting WR snaps); others believe Jags won't abandon two-way experiment after one season at 7th-round cost. If Hunter plays both ways again, his WR snaps will be limited, squeezing Washington's target opportunities.

Acquired by Jacksonville; historically a slot guy but played 60/40 outside-to-slot split in 2024, not pure slot competition. Community notes Meyers will get targets but Washington remained clear slot guy under Coen even with Meyers on roster. Concern is target dilution in 12/13-personnel formations, not direct slot displacement.

58 receptions, 847 yards, 5 TDs, 17.5 FPG in 8 healthy post-bye games (2024); locked down slot role after Kirk trade; ADP top of 7th round (late 6th in best ball). Coen's slot WR system historically elite (Kupp 22.4 FPG, Godwin 19.7 FPG). smash value at cost despite role uncertainty; even with question marks, 17.5 PPG in 8 games is strong floor. Concerns: Meyers arrival (though played 60/40 outside-to-slot split, not pure slot competition); Travis Hunter two-way experiment limiting WR snaps; Trevor Lawrence consistency; 12/13-personnel formation shifts squeezing WR targets. Support remains strong—7th-round price is essentially free even with risk.

Liam Coen's slot WRs, a history: 2021: 102.6 receiving YPG from Wan'Dale Robinson at Kentucky 2022: 22.4 FPG from Cooper Kupp (~WR1) 2024: 19.7 FPG from Chris Godwin (~WR2) 2025: 17.5 FPG from Parker Washington in 8 healthy post-bye games (incl. playoffs)

Liam Coen's slot WRs, a history: 2021: 102.6 receiving YPG from Wan'Dale Robinson at Kentucky 2022: 22.4 FPG from Cooper Kupp (~WR1) 2024: 19.7 FPG from Chris Godwin (~WR2) 2025: 17.5 FPG from Parker Washington in 8 healthy post-bye games (incl. playoffs)

Cardinals' Trey McBride says "there's no Arizona fans in Arizona." "Living in Arizona, you know, no one’s from Arizona. Everyone has moved in from another state, so they’re all fans of their own team. It’s a tough deal." Facts or nah? (via @​BussinWTB)

Mentioned in OP as 'best value option somewhere in the late 5 early 6' in later rounds. Limited community discussion; positioned as late-round value play when RB depth thins.

Tier-3b mention in PPR leagues; emerging sleeper. Bullish: league-winner upside in PPR; mentioned alongside Breece Hall and Jeremiah Love as post-round-2 value. Limited discussion but positioned as PPR-specific upside play.

Tier-3b mention in PPR leagues; emerging sleeper. Bullish: league-winner upside in PPR; mentioned alongside Breece Hall and Cam Skattebo as post-round-2 value. Limited discussion but positioned as PPR-specific upside play.

Mentioned as cautionary tale: 'I don't want an RB who's the whole offense. It becomes 1v11 and a year from hell real fast Source: Breece Hall.' Community view: avoid RBs carrying entire offense; Achane comparison (entire Dolphins offense) raises similar concerns.

Tier-3b mention; ADP 10–20 range. Noted as 'biggest risk' among tier-3b RBs (Achane, Henry, Walker, Love). Limited discussion; community view: risky but in conversation for league-winner upside.

Tier-3b alternative; ADP 10–20 range. Bullish: on improved Bengals defense (fewer negative game scripts); likely to see bell-cow usage; value better than Achane at later ADP despite being slightly worse in vacuum. Bearish: some prefer Achane in vacuum; less receiving upside than Achane. solid value play, especially vs. Achane at ADP; one comment: 'Chase brown on a team with a hopefully improved defense, shouldnt be too many negative game scripts. Recipe for a good season.'

Age-cliff avoidance strategy targets Henry as avoid. Bullish: still productive; mentioned alongside Saquon in tier-3b. Bearish: age 29+, well-documented historical decline for RBs at this age or with 1500+ carries; 'I want no parts of the running backs who qualify for the age cliff which is a well documented historical decline for RBs who are 29 or have 1500 carries. i will have zero saquon CMC Henry.' Preferred young legs (Jeanty, Hampton, Brown) instead.

RB2 finish last year; mentioned as tier-2 alternative but underrated in discussion. Bullish: proven talent on good team; reliable RB1 with decent upside; TD vulture risk manageable. Bearish: TD vulture risk from Josh Allen; one commenter notes he's 'in the next tier for most people' but undermentioned. Community view: solid choice but not consensus league-winner like Jeanty/Hampton; some prefer Cook/Hampton over him.

Consensus top-3 RB but polarizing in tier-2 discussion. Bullish: proven elite talent; bigger part of offense (especially if Kittle misses time). Bearish: age 30, already showing decline (YPC 'trash last year'); injury-prone (misses most of year when injured vs. JT's few games); 4–5 RBs to take over him; one commenter: 'There's like 4 or 5 rbs I'd take over McCaffrey his ypc was trash last year and hes already 30.' Age-cliff avoidance strategy gaining traction; some pass entirely (burned twice, won't draft again).

Tier-3a value at 10–12th ADP; emerging consensus league-winner. Bullish: 5+ receptions in 4 of 9 games as rookie; 80% goal-line touches; 7.4% explosive run rate in 4 healthy games (RB4 pace); bell-cow usage in improved Chargers offense; receiving work (Vidal/Mitchell not threats to receiving/goal-line role); versatile like Henry but with receiving upside. Bearish: lacks evasiveness of JT/Saquon/CMC; can get bogged down if hit before line of gain; Vidal/Mitchell competition; not a true bell cow; third-down back concerns (not great pass blocker). Community split: some prefer him over Cook/Jeanty; others skeptical of bell-cow status and receiving role.

Emerging consensus league-winner at 10–12th ADP (picks 10–12 in 12-team PPR). Bullish: article-backed research on league-winning RB finishes; paired with Hampton in back-to-back picks as optimal strategy; 8–9 RBs in ADP 10–20 range in best ball all offseason; young legs, explosive play ability (7.4% explosive run rate noted for Hampton comp). Jeanty + Hampton as tier-3a value play; one commenter: 'I want pick 10–12, so I can take Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton with back-to-back picks.' Preferred over older RBs (CMC, Henry) due to age-cliff avoidance.

Emerging consensus RB4–5 alternative; ADP 8–12th. Bullish: most rushing yards of all RBs last year; run-heavy team under Brady (McVay/Shanahan-adjacent scheme); new OC from scheme tree that loves screens; receiving upside underutilized (2 catches, 17 yards per game last year; had 450 receiving yards in 2023); high floor, high ceiling; safe, forget-it pick. Bearish: Josh Allen vultures TDs (lost 14 last year); limited receiving usage to date. Community view: Cook as safer floor than JT/Achane; receiving upside unlocking under new OC is key bull thesis.

ADP end of round 1/round 2; high variance due to Dolphins uncertainty. Bullish: RB5 last year with 9th-most touches; 1800 yards despite abysmal offense; elite pass-catcher (best receiver on team); no bad fantasy games; McDaniel's scheme sputtered but Achane succeeded anyway. Bearish: new GM, HC, QB, OC; offense reset; mobile QB (Tua) may reduce checkdowns; Dolphins 26th in offense last year (31st without Achane); limited WR talent; injury risk for small-frame back. talented player, wrong ADP; prefer later-round value or other tier-2 RBs. One comment: 'Achane will be their entire offense' vs. 'too much risk of injury, early shutdown, inept offense at his ADP.'

Consensus RB4, ADP 6–9th overall. Bullish case: elite athlete, proven talent, improved Colts offense with Jones (torn Achilles recovery). Bearish case: Jones injury risk, Colts fell apart without him last year, Pittman injury compounds concerns. Community split: some take him early 1st without hesitation; others pass unless he falls 5+ spots. One commenter took him 10th last year and was satisfied; another prefers Jeanty/Jefferson as fallback. Injury history viewed as more stable than CMC's.

What does the addition of Pete Carmichael as OC do for James Cook? @​MattParrino breaks this all down and more as we discuss the Bills fantasy outlook for 2026 🌐<https://t.ly/9D3uW> 🎥<https://t.ly/afw_x> 🎧<https://t.ly/6cASZ>

Check out the full Rashee Rice profile from @​MattHarmon_BYB ⤵️ <https://receptionperception.com/rashee-rice-2025-player-profile/> [Retweeted](

Rashee Rice’s hyper-specific role, injuries, and legal issues leave us with many more questions than answers entering the 2026 season… [Retweeted](

There are still exactly two paths to success in drafting a QB after Round 10: - Have 100+ rush attempts (Daniels, Maye, Fields) - Play for a "McShanahan" tree playcaller Every late-round QB to make the playoffs in 45%+ of ESPN leagues since 2021 fits one of these two criteria.

There are still exactly two paths to success in drafting a QB after Round 10: - Have 100+ rush attempts (Daniels, Maye, Fields) - Play for a "McShanahan" tree playcaller Every late-round QB to make the playoffs in 45%+ of ESPN leagues since 2021 fits one of these two criteria.

Bears QB Caleb Williams on his haters: "Yeah, I love them. It's one of my favorite things. I don't need them, but it's always a little extra belief in myself, a little extra confidence in myself. It just throws a little bit of gas on the fire, and all you need is a little bit." (via @​PardonMyTake)

Dave Canales runs a backfield meritocracy. He adjusts workloads quickly in favor of more efficient RBs. 2024 Weeks 1-3: Chuba Hubbard - 5.19 YPC, 60% designed carry share Miles Sanders - 3.11 YPC, 31% DCS For the rest of the season, Hubbard's DCS grew to 81% in games with Sanders (and he continued being more efficient) 2025 Weeks 1-6: Rico Dowdle - 5.83 YPC overall, but just a 31% DCS in games with Hubbard The rest of the season, Dowdle's DCS jumped to 61% in games with Hubbard active. I don'...

Dave Canales runs a backfield meritocracy. He adjusts workloads quickly in favor of more efficient RBs. 2024 Weeks 1-3: Chuba Hubbard - 5.19 YPC, 60% designed carry share Miles Sanders - 3.11 YPC, 31% DCS For the rest of the season, Hubbard's DCS grew to 81% in games with Sanders (and he continued being more efficient) 2025 Weeks 1-6: Rico Dowdle - 5.83 YPC overall, but just a 31% DCS in games with Hubbard The rest of the season, Dowdle's DCS jumped to 61% in games with Hubbard active. I don'...

Dave Canales runs a backfield meritocracy. He adjusts workloads quickly in favor of more efficient RBs. 2024 Weeks 1-3: Chuba Hubbard - 5.19 YPC, 60% designed carry share Miles Sanders - 3.11 YPC, 31% DCS For the rest of the season, Hubbard's DCS grew to 81% in games with Sanders (and he continued being more efficient) 2025 Weeks 1-6: Rico Dowdle - 5.83 YPC overall, but just a 31% DCS in games with Hubbard The rest of the season, Dowdle's DCS jumped to 61% in games with Hubbard active. I don'...

Dave Canales runs a backfield meritocracy. He adjusts workloads quickly in favor of more efficient RBs. 2024 Weeks 1-3: Chuba Hubbard - 5.19 YPC, 60% designed carry share Miles Sanders - 3.11 YPC, 31% DCS For the rest of the season, Hubbard's DCS grew to 81% in games with Sanders (and he continued being more efficient) 2025 Weeks 1-6: Rico Dowdle - 5.83 YPC overall, but just a 31% DCS in games with Hubbard The rest of the season, Dowdle's DCS jumped to 61% in games with Hubbard active. I don'...

I don't make the rules, but 2025 YPRR: TE1 Dalton Kincaid (2.5) TE2 Greg Dulcich (2.4) TE3 Tucker Kraft (2.2) TE4 George Kittle (2.1)

I don't make the rules, but 2025 YPRR: TE1 Dalton Kincaid (2.5) TE2 Greg Dulcich (2.4) TE3 Tucker Kraft (2.2) TE4 George Kittle (2.1)

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

.@​PFF did their QB rankings for 2026… and it’s a doozy: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy 11) Trevor Lawrence 12) Jayden Daniels 13) Caleb Williams 14) Sam Darnold 15) Jalen Hurts 16) Jared Goff 17) CJ Stroud 18) Baker Mayfield 19) Bo Nix (lol) 20) Bryce Young 21) Kyler Murray 22) Aaron Rodgers 23) Daniel Jones 24) Tyler Shough 25) Jaxson Dart (lol) 26) Geno Smith...

I got a feeling Jonathan Brooks gonna fly up the draft boards [Quoted](

Kyler Murray has the same number of top-five fantasy weeks in the last two seasons (5) as Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.

The NFL's most-underrated WRs: - Jalen Coker - Josh Downs - Jakobi Meyers - Parker Washington - Zay Flowers - Romeo Doubs - Ricky Pearsall - Ryan Flournoy Beyond the Box Score with @​DanSchneierNFL: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW_Em6Xwm90&t=3739s>

The NFL's most-underrated WRs: - Jalen Coker - Josh Downs - Jakobi Meyers - Parker Washington - Zay Flowers - Romeo Doubs - Ricky Pearsall - Ryan Flournoy Beyond the Box Score with @​DanSchneierNFL: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW_Em6Xwm90&t=3739s>

The NFL's most-underrated WRs: - Jalen Coker - Josh Downs - Jakobi Meyers - Parker Washington - Zay Flowers - Romeo Doubs - Ricky Pearsall - Ryan Flournoy Beyond the Box Score with @​DanSchneierNFL: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW_Em6Xwm90&t=3739s>

The NFL's most-underrated WRs: - Jalen Coker - Josh Downs - Jakobi Meyers - Parker Washington - Zay Flowers - Romeo Doubs - Ricky Pearsall - Ryan Flournoy Beyond the Box Score with @​DanSchneierNFL: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW_Em6Xwm90&t=3739s>

Update on Brandon Aiyuk:

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

8 WRs hit the following thresholds in 2025: + Yards per route run above 2.00 + Route win rate above 15% (Source: @​FantasyPtsData) 3.85 - Puka Nacua (16.4%) 3.74 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18.0%) 2.61 - Zay Flowers (16.0%) 2.45 - George Pickens (15.8%) 2.44 - Nico Collins (15.4%) 2.42 - Jaylen Waddle (15.3%) 2.08 - Davante Adams (23.2%) 2.02 - Ricky Pearsall (19.6%)

Rachaad White is an early and massive outlier among Matt Waldman's top-50 players in his 2026 rankings (Despite being among the earliest pre-draft touters of JCM). Matt explores White's potential and the value of having outliers in summer fantasy prep. <https://www.footballguys.com/article/2026-gut-check-no676-rachaad-white-impactful-rankings-outlier> [Retweeted](

I don’t expect Tet to be a big win at his WR18 ADP at the 3/4 turn in year 2. He has to overcome a pretty poor offensive environment in Carolina (27th in implied PPG in 2026) that’ll likely struggle to score and stay on the field. He was very solid as a rookie but wasn’t some incredible target-earner (0.23 TPRR w/ poor tgt comp), and he still has some real flaws to his game (vertical separation, zone-beating, average YAC ability, winning at catch point). He also got straight up outproduced by...

I don’t expect Tet to be a big win at his WR18 ADP at the 3/4 turn in year 2. He has to overcome a pretty poor offensive environment in Carolina (27th in implied PPG in 2026) that’ll likely struggle to score and stay on the field. He was very solid as a rookie but wasn’t some incredible target-earner (0.23 TPRR w/ poor tgt comp), and he still has some real flaws to his game (vertical separation, zone-beating, average YAC ability, winning at catch point). He also got straight up outproduced by...

YES OR NO - Does Brandon Aiyuk play football this season?

KEEP/TRADE/CUT Rome Odunze Parker Washington Christian Watson

KEEP/TRADE/CUT Rome Odunze Parker Washington Christian Watson

KEEP/TRADE/CUT Rome Odunze Parker Washington Christian Watson

I found these quotes on Cam Ward from @​gregcosell very interesting and makes me even more bullish on him as a darkhorse back end QB1 or high end QB2 in Superflex #Fantasy Football this season. "The other thing that really stood out (to me) and this is not a household name, but they brought in Austin Schlotman to play center". "He's been with Brian Daboll and the reason that's important.. is they want to play fast. So (Austin) Schlotman has been with (Brian) Daboll before, whereas Cam Ward ha...

Who will be the Panthers RB1 by the end of the season? Chuba Hubbard Jonathan Brooks

Who will be the Panthers RB1 by the end of the season? Chuba Hubbard Jonathan Brooks

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

The TEs who are 1st or 2nd in ADP among their team's pass catchers (this historically has mattered) Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Tucker Kraft, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely (!), Chig Okonkwo (!), Greg Dulcich (!!!)

Let's give Malik Willis 150+ rush attempts this season and see what happens

Rachaad White's ADP has risen to around the eighth round (up from ninth–tenth round); he has three seasons with 50+ receptions as a pro and shares a locker-room connection with Jayden Daniels from Arizona State. White is the primary bet for Washington's running back position if the offense returns to top-10 scoring; he offers a floor play with upside to be this year's Kenneth Gainwell or Javonte Williams if everything aligns.

Washington WR going cheaper this year than last year despite setting the franchise record for touchdown catches with Jayden Daniels in 2024. McLaurin has a chance to post an all-time high in targets, potentially reaching 150 targets this season. Under new OC David Blough, McLaurin will be featured and lined up in different spots across the field—a stark contrast to Cliff Kingsbury's approach of keeping him on one side—and will receive more easy-button targets, giving him a chance to absolutely crush it. Ben Johnson is happy to draft him at current cost.

Washington TE brought in as a free agent with a chance to compete as the number two target in the passing game. Okonkwo has a chance to be drafted as a TE2 but easily finish as a TE1, with potential for a career season. Historical precedent exists for tight end success with Jayden Daniels, as evidenced by Zach Ertz's production. Ben Johnson sees value in Okonkwo's upside at a discount draft price, especially for best ball and as a late-round dart throw in redraft leagues.

Washington QB being drafted in the QB5–6 range with a chance to crush his ADP if he stays healthy. Daniels has the potential to lead the NFL in quarterback rushing production under new OC David Blough, who will deploy significantly more behind-center snaps than shotgun formations—a major philosophical shift from prior scheme. Ben Johnson identifies Daniels as a big target in 2026 drafts, indicating confidence in his fantasy production within the revamped Washington offense.

Ben Johnson notes that Kyle Pitts had his big breakout season last year and just received a huge contract extension; he highlights that Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees coming over from Cleveland have had great success with tight ends—David Njoku had multiple TE1 seasons and Hayden Hurst Jr. led the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards as a 21-year-old rookie. Johnson projects Pitts as the best bet to be the number two target on the Atlanta Falcons.

Ben Johnson projects Drake London as having WR1 overall potential and says he should continue to thrive; London has averaged over 16 PPG in back-to-back seasons and has a chance to absolutely crush it this year under the new Falcons scheme.

Ben Johnson calls Robinson a tremendous player and says you're lucky to get him at his current ADP of 102, right behind Jahmyr Gibbs in major formats; he is a locked-in top-three pick in all formats and will benefit from the new Falcons scheme. If the offense scores more points, Robinson could end up scoring more touchdowns.

Ben Johnson compares Tagovailoa to this year's Daniel Jones vibe and notes he appears to have the leg up over Michael Penix Jr. heading into the season; while neither QB is probably very fantasy relevant, Johnson projects Tagovailoa as a late best ball target that makes sense, especially considering how easy it is to stack him with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Zachariah Branch.

Tucker flashed as the de facto WR1 for the Raiders last year but is now part of a deeper WR room with Nailor and other additions; he remains a depth option but is not a primary draft target given the increased competition for targets.

Ben Johnson identifies Nailor as a free agent signing by Vegas who is under the radar but positioned to thrive in Clint Kubiak's play-action scheme; at 27 years old, he represents a calculated bet on a late-career breakout with coaching staff approval and a clear opportunity in the WR room after Vegas lost out on Alec Pierce. Johnson projects a low-end WR3 finish, which would crush his current ADP; the coaching staff appears to really like him.

Ben Johnson projects Bowers as the TE1 overall in all major formats with a realistic floor of 16–18 PPG and ceiling of 20 PPG given his elite talent and role under Clint Kubiak; he should replicate Jackson Smith-Njigba's elite target share and first-read rate from last year at the tight end position. Johnson identifies Bowers as one of two young dynamic talents (alongside Ashton Gentry) to bet on if the Raiders offense turns around in a major way in year three.

Ben Johnson calls Jeanty one of the best running back prospects in the last 10 years with league-winning upside under Clint Kubiak; he is a locked-in top-15 pick in FFPC, NFFC, and Underdog formats, sometimes available at the 2–3 turn or early second round. Johnson expects Jeanty's scoring to mirror the combined output of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet from last year, as the Raiders' backup RB will not push him as aggressively as Charbonnet pushed Walker.

Aaron Jones should have some early-season value in the Vikings' backfield if you're looking for early production, but he will be pushed by Jordan Mason and day-three rookie De'Mont Clayborn. He is not a locked-in starter and should be viewed as a depth option rather than a primary draft target.

T.J. Hockenson has lost a step but remains a capable tight end in the Vikings' offense; he is not positioned as a must-draft player despite the team's overall offensive improvements.

The Vikings added Jauan Jennings, a solid wide receiver three, to the offense. Jennings' addition should improve the overall Vikings offense and Kyler Murray's fantasy outlook; he provides a third reliable receiving option alongside Jefferson and Addison, replacing Jalen Nailor from last year.

Jordan Addison, who had 19 touchdown catches in his first two seasons as a pro before falling apart last year alongside Jefferson, has a chance to turn things around in 2026. However, his target share and role face significant headwinds from the addition of Jauan Jennings as a solid WR3 option in the Vikings offense; with Jefferson, Addison, and Jennings as Murray's primary receivers, Addison's volume is constrained relative to his draft cost.

Kyler Murray is being priced as a mid-to-low-level quarterback two but is the odds-on favorite to win the Vikings' starting job; Ben Johnson believes Murray has a chance to crush his ADP and finish as a low-end QB1 if his scrambling ability is utilized. Murray benefits from an upgraded WR corps with Jefferson, Addison, and Jennings, making him an attractive pairing with Jefferson in best ball.

Justin Jefferson, a player who has finished as a wide receiver one overall and been unbelievable for fantasy in every season except last year, has a chance for a huge turnaround if Minnesota's offense improves with Kyler Murray and Kevin O'Connell's quarterback elevation. Ben Johnson targets him in all formats, especially when available in the late first or early second round. Jefferson should be the biggest beneficiary of the Vikings' offensive additions and overall scheme improvements.

Juwan Johnson had a breakout season in Kellen Moore's offense last year and remains the preferred tight end target in the Saints' double tight-end setup, despite the addition of rookie Oscar Delp. He was very good last year and benefits from the offensive weapons and pace-based system Moore brings.

Top-10 pick out of Arizona State, Tyson is a terrific WR2 opposite Chris Olave who could pay off very well at his current ADP price tag. There's a chance Olave finishes as a WR1 and Tyson joins him as a low-end WR2 with flex viability. Ben Johnson draws parallels to CeeDee Lamb, a player Kellen Moore coached in Dallas who had massive, league-winning seasons as a pro, suggesting Tyson has similar upside in Moore's Saints offense.

Etienne had a fantastic season in Jacksonville last year and was added to the Saints. He's expensive this year, but positive coach speak and scheme fit support a volume-based bet where Etienne should catch passes out of the backfield, have all goal-line opportunities, and see a high number of touches like he did in Jacksonville. However, Ben Johnson does not view him as a must-draft player despite the Saints' offense making structural sense and having potential to rise from 28th to top-10 in scoring.

Olave is the most expensive Saint for a reason. If he can stay healthy, he's a player who could have 170 targets this year and benefit from the Saints offense taking a big step forward in terms of points-per-game scoring under Kellen Moore's system. Ben Johnson is targeting Olave in all formats—dynasty, best ball, and redraft—as the Saints' offense has the potential to jump from 28th overall in scoring to a top-10 unit.

Year-two RB Hampton has a workhorse profile with passing-game usage, high-volume touch capacity, home-run hitting ability, and goal-line prowess. He's the most expensive Charger for a reason and could be a 2027 first-round pick if the offense takes a huge step; currently locked into the upper half of the second round with potential for 12+ rushing touchdowns.

Johnston has 16 touchdown catches over his last two seasons. If he can hold off depth chart threats from Rondell Gadsden and Trey Harris, he has a chance to pay off very well at his WR4 price tag in a Chargers offense poised for improvement under Mike McDaniel.

McConkey looks primed for a true turnaround year in 2026 after averaging 15+ points per game as a rookie in 2024. He's currently being priced like a mid-WR2 despite the upside to replicate or exceed that rookie production in an improved Chargers offense under Mike McDaniel's heavy personnel scheme, which will consolidate targets to at least one Los Angeles receiver.

Herbert's performance splits with/without Joe Alt are stark: in four games with Alt healthy for over 50% of snaps, Herbert averaged 67.7% completion rate, 272 yards per game, and 6.8% touchdown rate; in 12 games without Alt, yards per game dropped to 220. With Alt and Rashawn Slater returning and Mike McDaniel arriving as play-caller, Herbert is positioned for a major turnaround. Ben Johnson describes him as 'the best quarterback that Mike McDaniel has been associated with' and rates him as 'an easy click right now in all formats based on where he is priced.'

Josh Downs at WR44 (97th overall) is the value pick to get exposure to the Colts offense, which ranked #1 in the league last year when Daniel Jones was healthy, offering upside at a discount price.

Josh Downs is expected to move outside more and get increased playing time with the Colts, and on a per-route basis he destroys cornerbacks and gets open consistently, positioning him to finish around WR24 if he gets a full-time role.

Josh Downs is going as WR44 at 97th overall despite running 80%+ of routes in three games last year and 78%+ of routes in six games in 2024, scoring 19.4+ PPR points in four of those six games, making him a value pick with significant upside if he gets a full-time role.

Caleb Williams has accuracy concerns, ranking as one of the lowest in completion percentage (only JJ McCarthy lower), and has only three goal-line carries in his career, limiting his rushing touchdown upside despite his mobility.

Caleb Williams is being drafted as QB6 at 72nd overall, 23 picks ahead of Brock Purdy (who finished top-6 QB in two of last three seasons), 24 picks ahead of Matthew Stafford (2025 MVP runner-up), and 24 picks ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Jackson Dart, making his ADP unjustifiably high relative to proven alternatives.

A.J. Brown may have knee issues; the Rams were reportedly not satisfied with his medicals, and the knee was cited as part of the reason the Eagles didn't get more in trade compensation (20th and 27th round picks), raising health concerns heading into 2026.

A.J. Brown is positioned to lead the wide receiver position in scoring with less target competition than ever before, the best passer he's ever played with in Drake May, and a high-scoring, pass-heavy Patriots offense, unless he gets injured or significantly declines.

A.J. Brown has been one of the absolute best in the league at creating first downs during his NFL career and had a 42.1% first-read target rate in 2024 (second only to Malik Nabers), metrics that correlate more strongly with future fantasy production than traditional stats.

A.J. Brown dominated target shares (42.1% first-read target rate in 2024) while playing alongside Devante Smith, a top-15 receiver, and now moves to the Patriots with Romeo Doubs as his only competition, positioning him for elite target volume.

A.J. Brown has a 34% career end zone target rate and has never been below 21% in any season, compared to Stefan Diggs' 8% end zone target rate with the Patriots, indicating Brown is an alpha receiver who will command red zone opportunities.

A.J. Brown averaged 3+ yards per route run in 2024 with the Eagles and ranks third all-time in yards per route run (behind only Puka Nacua and Tyreek Hill) and first from under center specifically at 4.4 yards per route run, suggesting significant upside in a Patriots offense that runs more under-center plays.

A.J. Brown is being considered ahead of Drake London, Justin Jefferson, and Nico Collins due to his elite efficiency metrics, high first-read target rate (42.1% in 2024), and transition to the Patriots' under-center heavy offense with Drake May and Josh McDaniels, positioning him as a potential league winner.

Zach Charbonnet ranks in the top 20 in rush success rate playing behind the same offensive line as Kenneth Walker, and was one of the few running backs in the league last year who gained positive yards when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, a skill shared only with Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson.

Kenneth Walker ranks 51st in rush success rate among running backs since entering the NFL out of 54 qualifiers, and has lost touches throughout his NFL career, suggesting he may be a frustrating player for coaches despite his elite speed and ability to break off explosive runs.

Charbonnet ranks in the top 20 in rush success rate while playing behind the same Seahawks offensive line as Kenneth Walker, suggesting Walker's lower success rate is more about individual performance than line quality.

Swift was the third least efficient in efficiency of movement in 2024 but was well above league average in 2025, and went from dead last in yards over expectation to first in the league, showing dramatic improvement under Eric Bieniemy.

Walker ranks 51st in rush success rate among running backs since entering the NFL (out of 54 qualifiers), and while some is due to offensive line, he needs to prove he can be more consistent.

Walker is being drafted at RB10 overall (16th overall), which aligns with analyst rankings of RB8-RB13, making him fairly valued despite questions about consistency.

With Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator, Walker could become more consistent as a rusher, similar to how Bieniemy improved DeAndre Swift's efficiency and consistency in 2025.

Walker had 6.5 yards per rush last year when given at least one yard before contact, and only Devon Achan had a higher explosive run rate on these runs, showing elite efficiency in space.

Walker ranks running back 23 in explosive plays per game over his first four seasons, putting him in range with elite backs like Shaun Alexander and Brian Westbrook despite splitting a backfield.

Laporta could potentially outscore Trey McBride, making him a viable alternative at the tight end position with more upside.

The analyst is drafting Loveland ahead of Trey McBride at tight end, suggesting he prefers Loveland's upside despite McBride's talent advantage.

The analyst is nervous about McBride's 2026 outlook and sees clear paths to more upside with other tight ends like Colson Loveland or Sam Laporta, who could easily outscore him.

McBride's per-route efficiency doesn't look special, and as an accumulator who gets short targets rather than winning downfield or creating yards after catch, he may not be able to maintain elite efficiency if volume decreases.

McBride's 694 routes run last year (121 more than the next closest tight end) is not replicable, and his per-route efficiency doesn't look special, raising concerns about his production sustainability.

The Browns have the easiest schedule in the NFL, which could help Judkins stay in competitive games and receive 22+ carries per game.

Judkins is being drafted well below other talented second-year running backs like Devon Henry, Jeremiah Love, and Breece Hall, making him a relative value despite concerns about the Browns' offensive environment.

Despite averaging only 0.4 yards before contact per rush last year (dead last among 250+ rush qualifiers since 2012), Judkins is considered one of the best running backs in his class and could still be productive with improved offensive line play.

The Browns showed last year they believe in leaning on Judkins in the run game, and with Todd Monken as offensive coordinator, they should maintain at least a 50% rush rate in competitive games.

Judkins is positioned as a boom player with the potential to score 10+ touchdowns annually, especially with the Browns adding fullback Mike Burton and improving their offensive line.

Odunze has the eighth most end zone targets per game of any wide receiver over the last two years, tied with Drake London and ahead of several elite receivers, showing he's Caleb's primary red zone target.

Odunze had a 23.7% target share in the first 12 games, significantly higher than D.J. Moore's 16.6%, and was on pace for 77 targets before his injury.

Odunze represents good value at wide receiver 29 with a 23% target share in his first 12 games last year, excellent pedigree, and a strong offensive system, making round five the right landing spot.

Evans is being drafted around ADP 50, but the analyst is hesitant to spend a top-50 pick on a player who might only play 11 or fewer games and may not see improvement in target volume with San Francisco.

At 33 years old with a history of hamstring issues, Evans is a risky bet to stay healthy and produce as the 49ers' number one receiver. He had only one game with 15+ PPR points in 2025, raising concerns about his ability to bounce back.

Dave notes Evans had only one game with 15+ PPR points in 2025 and is banking on a major bounce-back while staying healthy to be the 49ers' number one alpha receiver.

Dave expresses concern about Evans' age (33) and history of hamstring issues, worrying that relying on him to stay healthy in the 49ers offense is risky.

Jacob strongly disagrees with Heath's red rating on Evans, ranking him at WR20 (plus-five relative to consensus) and highlighting the upside with Kyle Shanahan, noting he and Dan Schneier did a 15-minute breakdown on Evans' historical context and potential.

Heath lists Mike Evans as a red (pump the brakes) at 54th overall, suggesting he's being drafted too early despite his fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

Heath calls Fannin 'by far the most talented player that you can get after pick 100' and loves the value, though he notes he probably would have classified him as white rather than boom.

Jacob would give Fannin a boost if Shadur Sanders wins the QB job in camp, noting they already have a connection with Shadur throwing to him 33% of the time last year.

Jacob notes concerns about Deshaun Watson's historical performance with tight ends under Kevin Stefanski, citing David Njoku's poor 1.22 yards per route run with Watson, and worries that new WRs Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston could reduce Fannin's targets.

Jacob emphasizes Fannin's elite athleticism and after-the-catch ability, noting he tied Christian McCaffrey's rookie season record for most receptions with 5+ yards gained after initial contact for any player under 22 since 2015, ahead of Mark Chase and Saquon Barkley.

Dave notes Fannin's ADP of 95-103rd overall is amazing value for someone who could finish as a top-five tight end, and he would take him around TE6 in full PPR.

Dave highlights Fannin as a boom play at 95th overall (TE8) because he averaged 11.7 PPR points per game on 6.7 targets last year and the addition of new WRs won't significantly reduce his target share.

Jacob has no strong opinion on Parker Washington, describing him as a 'shoulder shrug emoji' at his current ADP of 66th overall (WR32), suggesting fair value.

Heath ranks Hall at RB22, lower than consensus which has him around RB16, and gravitates toward riskier picks like Bayshal Tootin or Cam Scadaboo due to Hall's limited upside in the Jets offense.

Jacob counters that Hall showed strong passing game ability with 6.6 yards per target for his career and 7.3 last year, and may see increased involvement in the passing game if Braylon Allen stays healthy, reducing Hall's rushing workload.

Dave predicts Hall will start the season well against Tennessee in week one but will cost fantasy owners weeks in the second half of the year and is not worth a round three pick, suggesting round five is more appropriate.

Dave argues Hall is overvalued at 30th overall (RB14) despite averaging only 13 PPR points per game last year, and expects him to underperform in round three because Frank Reich historically underutilizes running backs and the offense won't score many points with Geno Smith at QB.

Author cites David Johnson as a successful example of a receiving-based prospect from a smaller school who came to the NFL and 'absolutely smashed,' supporting the thesis that dominant smaller-school players can translate.

Potential injury to Warren could create opportunity for Eli Heidenreich to become a league-winner in the Colts offense, similar to how Warren emerged last year.

Potential injury to Dowdle could create opportunity for Eli Heidenreich to become a league-winner in the Colts offense.

Potential injury to Pittman Jr. could create opportunity for Eli Heidenreich to become a league-winner in the Colts offense.

Aaron Rodgers heavily targeted him with short area targets last year, establishing a pattern the author expects to continue with Eli Heidenreich in the Colts offense.

Conservatively in the back nine of his career, creating opportunity for Eli Raridon in New England's elite passing and running offense.

Converted wide receiver running back from Navy with 9.25 RAS and elite receiving production (18.5 yards per reception, 109 receptions). Author's prospect model ranked him eighth greatest RB prospect of all time. Landed with Colts where Aaron Rodgers targets slot receivers heavily, positioning Heidenreich as potential league-winner if injuries occur to Pittman Jr., Dowdle, or Warren.

Third-round pick with elite landing spot in New England's elite passing and running offense. Despite minimal college production (623 yards, 3 TDs), analysts like Hayden Winks ranked him as tight end two in the class due to elite blocking and film. Author projects he could be a legitimate starter from week one, similar to Gunner Helm, running fourth-most routes among Patriots pass catchers.

Hunter Henry is on the back nine of his career with the Patriots, creating opportunity for Eli Raridon in an elite passing and running offense.

Julian Hill, signed by the Patriots as a potential second tight end, tore his ACL in organized team activities and is out for the year.

Eli Raridon is liked even more by scouts than Oscar Delp despite limited college production (623 yards, 3 TDs); he lands with the Patriots in an elite passing and running offense with Hunter Henry aging out, drawing rave reviews and being ranked as tight end two in his class by respected analysts.

Noah Fant is described as being on his 19th team and unable to contribute for anyone, including the Cincinnati Bengals where he did absolutely nothing.

The analyst questions whether Juwan Johnson is a good enough run blocker to be used as an every-down player in the modern NFL, suggesting Oscar Delp could displace him.

Oscar Delp was drafted 73rd overall by the Saints and the analyst believes scouts loved his film despite modest college production; he projects him as a potential breakout tight end who could score 8+ touchdowns in a similar role to Colby Parkinson or Will Dissly.

Taj Brooks is a productive Texas Tech player with high RAS and strong rushing yards per game who is going completely undrafted; the analyst sees potential for him to earn a larger role with better understanding of the Bengals offense.

The analyst is unsure if Samaje Perine can handle 18 touches in a game if Chase Brown is injured, expressing doubt about his ability to be a reliable backup.

Samaje Perine is a 32-year-old running back who had a very good season last year but missed time with injury; author is unsure if he can handle 18 touches in a game if Chase Brown gets injured.

Chase Brown is a day three pick who is a very good running back for the Bengals but not someone who will change the franchise, with questions about backup depth if he gets injured.

Taj Brooks is a productive Texas Tech running back with high RAS and strong rushing yards per game who is going completely undrafted; author sees potential for him to earn a larger role with the Bengals if Chase Brown gets injured, similar to past Bengals third-string RB opportunities.

Trey Harris is not a deep threat and lacks the speed and athleticism needed for that role on the Chargers, with Brennan Thompson positioned ahead of him in the author's view.

Xavier Worthy has not shown the ball tracking ability to be the primary deep threat on the Chiefs, despite the author's personal affinity for him.

Author believes Tyquan Thornton is the best deep threat on the Chiefs and has high confidence he will be a fantasy starter or useful asset in 2026, potentially putting up a Mecole Hardman-plus style season as the team integrates deep ball threats into their offense.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is being phased out under Eric Bieniemy's new accountability system with the Chiefs, which prioritizes playing the best guys at every position.

Patrick Mahomes succeeded in the deep ball role last season and has left a lot on the field with deep balls in years past, suggesting opportunity for deep threats like Tyquan Thornton.

Xavier Worthy has not shown the ball tracking ability to be the deep threat on the Chiefs, with an 18+ air yards depth of target, potentially ceding that role to Tyquan Thornton.

Tyquan Thornton is trending in the right direction with the Chiefs under Eric Bieniemy's new accountability system, positioned as WR3 behind Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, and may be the best deep threat on the team with potential for a Mecole Hardman-plus season.

Zavian Thomas is described as the best deep fantasy football sleeper imaginable—a day-three draft pick who led the nation in kick return yards in 2024 and is being converted to part-time running back by the Bears, with potential to outperform Khalil Mungai as the RB2.

Jalen Wright saw expanded role opportunities in the back half of last season when Devon Achane couldn't handle the workload of 20 touches per game.

At 184 lbs, Devon Achane may not be able to sustain the beating of being the engine of the offense for an entire season, as evidenced by expanded roles for Ollie Gordon and Jalen Wright in the back half of last season when Achane couldn't handle 20 touches per game.

Analyst loves Ollie Gordon's prospect profile more than the models do, viewing him as a true last-round stash with better stylistic fit to ground-and-pound with Malik Willis than Devon Achane, and plans to have him on the back end of many rosters.

Dolphins quarterback whose ground-and-pound style makes Ollie Gordon a better stylistic fit than Devon Achane.

Cited as a former Oklahoma State teammate of Ollie Gordon who followed a similar trend of a great junior season followed by a poor final year.

Added as competition behind Jonathan Taylor in the Colts backfield.

Outproduced DJ Giddens and took his snaps on the Indianapolis Colts as a rookie.

Has missed 18% of his career games with injury, which could create opportunity for DJ Giddens in the Colts backfield.

At 184 lbs, analyst questions whether he can sustain the beating of being the engine of the offense for an entire season, suggesting he may lose touches to Ollie Gordon.

Analyst views him as a controversial sleeper pick behind Devon Achane on the Dolphins; he's a big-bodied runner who is a better stylistic fit for Malik Willis's ground-and-pound approach than the lighter Achane, and could see increased usage if Achane gets worn down.

Cited as an example of a younger backup who got significant playing time when the Dolphins turned the backfield over to him and Ali Gordon.

Cited as an example of a running back who didn't play or played poorly as a rookie but later made a big impact in fantasy football.

Cited as an example of a running back who didn't play or played poorly as a rookie but later made a big impact in fantasy football.

Cited as a comparable example of a running back who was immaterial his first two seasons but later made a big impact in fantasy football.

Despite a disappointing rookie year where he lost snaps to Ameer Abdullah, analyst views him as a breakout candidate similar to Blake Corum; he was a 9.7 RAS prospect with elite backfield dominator ratings and is only 22 years old with Jonathan Taylor injury-prone (18% games missed).

Analyst expects the Bills will cut or trade him at some point, believing he cannot make an impact for the team.

Was 'absolutely cooked' for the Chicago Bears last season; analyst suggests he would have been cut rather than traded for a second round pick by Buffalo.

Ultra-productive day three pick (3.13 yards per route run in final college season) landing on an elite fantasy offense (Buffalo Bills) with weak WR depth; analyst expects he could be a starting receiver from week one and is a prototypical sleeper profile.

Evan Silva prefers Cooper Kupp over Brandon Aiyuk in best-ball formats but flips to Aiyuk for redraft leagues, indicating Silva sees Aiyuk as a drop candidate in redraft but with better best-ball utility. This reflects different risk/reward profiles across league formats.

ETR ranks Cooper Kupp at 180 overall in best ball while ADP is 199, placing them 19 spots ahead of market. In best ball, Kupp has value as a consistent floor player who scores 7-8 points every game and provides usable weeks occasionally, despite lacking a huge ceiling. Last year, once Rashid Shahid was acquired, Kupp had 18% target per hour run and 16% target share, compared to Shahid's 10% target share. While offseason buzz suggests Shahid will be more featured (three-year, $51 million contract), Kupp's target per route run wasn't catastrophic last year, his yards per target jumped back up with the improved offense, and the top three receivers aren't in question. Torrey Hockenson is still recovering from shin injury, so his skillset (more redundant with Shahid) won't compete with Kupp. Kupp will likely see significant volume despite being older and having a muted ceiling. In best ball, late-round consistency has value, and Kupp's skillset and experience suggest he won't completely fall off the cliff.

The Jaguars used the number two overall pick in the draft on Travis Hunter, signaling significant investment in the wide receiver room. ETR is really below market on Travis Hunter in the Jaguars wide receiver situation. The crowded receiver room (Washington, Myers, Thomas, Hunter, Nate Borkercher) makes it difficult to parse target distribution, and Hunter's role remains unclear amid established veterans.

Parker Washington's role in the Jaguars offense has been significantly increased under new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen. He leads the team in targets and is expected to get a very large contract (likely to be signed), which will give people more confidence that his role is further established. Last year, when all three receivers (Washington, Myers, Thomas) were on field, Washington was involved alongside Myers as a clear top-two option.

ETR ranks Brian Thomas Jr. at 74 overall while ADP is 63, placing them 11 spots behind market. Thomas was arguably the worst wide receiver in the NFL for the majority of last season. Since hiring new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen, the Jaguars have traded for Jacoby Myers, used the number two pick on Travis Hunter, significantly increased Parker Washington's role, and used a second-round pick on Nate Borkercher—all signals that Thomas is not a featured part of their passing game. When all three receivers (Washington, Myers, Thomas) were on field last year, Thomas was a clear third with only 12% target share once Myers started playing, while Myers was consistently above 20%. Offseason buzz about Thomas (puff pieces, quote about running not hurting) may be team-generated confidence-building rather than genuine role expansion.

Dylan Sampson remains a significant factor in the Browns' pass-down work with a 29% target per hour run from last year, which is massive for a running back. He was also really efficient per target for a running back, suggesting he will get a good chunk of the pass-down work even with Quinchon Junkins in the backfield.

Justin Herzig has been acquiring Mark Andrews as a cheap second tight end in the later rounds when drafting Lamar Jackson, hoping he scores 10 touchdowns. This pairing fits well with the draft strategy of taking a tight end late and stacking with the Ravens quarterback.

Justin Herzig prefers Jaden Daniels over Lamar Jackson in best ball because Daniels is available at a round and a half better ADP, offering superior value despite similar upside.

Justin Herzig loves pairing Zay Flowers with Lamar Jackson as a stacking strategy in best ball, indicating strong confidence in the correlation between the two Ravens players.

Evan Silva has Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in their own tier, closer together than the best ball market does. Silva is betting that Lamar Jackson bounces back from last year's hamstring injury and returns to explosive form. While Lamar looked slower at times last year, he still recorded fast MPH data even after returning from injury. Silva expects Lamar to be a super explosive player this season, with the two quarterbacks (Allen and Jackson) ranked tighter than ADP suggests.

ETR ranks Josh Allen at 35 overall in best ball while ADP is 27, placing them eight spots below market. The disagreement is strategic rather than talent-based: in best ball, early quarterback selection creates roster construction issues, leaving teams thin at running back. While Josh Allen scores 30+ points in playoffs, other quarterbacks (Brock Purdy had 44, Trevor Lawrence had 40, Danny Dimes had 35 in Week 17) can match that ceiling in one-week samples. Allen's best games typically require two rushing touchdowns, creating a multi-leg parlay requirement for best ball value. In contrast, Baker Mayfield's 35-point games correlate with pass catchers (Egbuka, Godwin, Otten, McMillan, Ted Hurst), making him more valuable for correlated stacking in best ball.

ETR ranks Michael Wilson at 95 overall while ADP is 83, placing them one round below market. The concern centers on target share collapse when Marvin Harrison returned: Wilson had 29% target share and 29% target per hour run without Harrison, but only 13% target per hour run and 14% target share with him on field. In Harrison's return game, he out-targeted Wilson 7-3 before leaving early, with Wilson getting only four targets in the fourth quarter. New Cardinals coaching staff (Nathaniel Hackett, Carson Beck) and uncertainty around quarterback situation (Jacoby Brissett vs. rookie Beck) further complicate Wilson's outlook, as his production has only materialized with Brissett under center.

Marvin Harrison received fourth overall pick draft capital two years ago. When he returned from injury last year, he out-targeted Michael Wilson 7-3 in his first game back before leaving early. The new Cardinals coaching staff is expected to want to get Harrison going, which would likely occur at the expense of Michael Wilson. However, there is uncertainty about whether Harrison can actually succeed in the offense, and he may be incapable of returning to form.

Former first-round pick on upward trajectory with 1200+ receiving yards, 86 catches, and 6 TDs in 2025; ranked WR7 overall and WR3 in final five games. Fourth in yards per route run behind Puka Nakua and JSN despite going rounds later in drafts. When Lamar Jackson was healthy, he was a top-10 WR in receiving yards per game. New OC Declan Doyle expected to run faster-paced offense; Ravens ranked 27th in red zone scoring, creating TD upside. Fifth in target share last year with potential to lead NFL this year given minimal competition (Mark Andrews declining, Shotwell Bateman at 28% target share as rookie). Compared to Antonio Brown's trajectory; fits McDaniel-style intermediate passing game. Described as flag-plant player with absolute floor at mid-WR range and potential for elite production.

One of the flattest performers in win/loss splits (2.9 gap alongside Saquon Barkley); averaged 17.6 PPG in wins and remained productive as a fringe RB1 in losses. Valued as a late second/early third-round pick with durability and Ravens extension backing; the value proposition is strong enough to justify one more year of investment despite potential decline risk.

Averaged 19 more fantasy points per game in wins (30 PPG) versus losses, showing significant game-script dependency. Valued as an 8th-round pick but carries mid-season risk due to Colts' struggles, making him a less palatable miss than later-round investments like Derek Henry, whose win/loss splits are much flatter.

2025 down year (WR11, 27.5% target share, 7 TDs, 1000 yards) was environment-driven by Kevin Patullo's Eagles offense. Weeks 11-16 showed true ceiling with 32% target share, 88 rec yards/game, 2.8 yards per route run, nearly 20 PPG in full PPR. With Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels (who elevated Brandon Marshall, Devontae Adams), Brown could see 150+ targets. Expected points per game pace (19.6) would rank WR3 overall. Fourth-best against man coverage. Patriots offense will feature downfield shots. Undervalued and underranked despite elite talent.

Second-year RB for Chargers willing to draft top 10 overall despite injury-plagued rookie year; flashed upside with 16 PPG over 9 games and 5 TDs despite missing half season. Now has healthy offensive line and Mike McDaniel as OC, who transformed Miami's run game (Raheem Mostert scored 20+ TDs despite not being bell cow). Justin Herbert had 20% target share to RBs when Austin Eckler was top-2 RB in 2021-22. Favorable opening schedule (Cardinals, Raiders, Bills) with Chargers double-digit favorites in Week 1. Dark horse for AP Offensive Player of the Year. Currently 15th player off board in ADP. Risk is overdraft as consensus pick; if he reaches end of first round (9-10 overall), he must be everything. Harbaugh/Chargers offense has history of using complementary RBs alongside lead back (Gus Edwards alongside Ravens RBs), so Hampton may be capped at 60% snap share and not reach elite tier.

Jordan Addison is being drafted at fringe WR4 (46-48 ADP) despite first two seasons averaging 950 yards and 9-10 touchdowns, finishing top 24 in total points and top 30 in PPG both years. Last year's decline was due to poor QB play (McCarthy/Wentz) and catchability issues, not target volume. With Kyler Murray, Addison only needs to return to 800-950 yards and 9-10 TDs to finish top 30 WR. However, Addison feels boom-or-bust with average depth of target north of 14 yards and is touchdown-dependent (19 TDs in first two years). Juwan Jennings addition (fifth in red zone targets last year with 49ers) could cannibalize red zone opportunities, making him risky as a WR3 despite upside; better value in half-PPR formats where TD upside matters more.

Jake Seeley has significant draft shares of Harold Fannin, citing the likelihood that Fannin leads the team in targets. Seeley references a prior show with Fitz discussing teams whose tight ends could lead in targets, and identified Fannin as a candidate. Fannin is positioned as an alternative to premium tight ends if Seeley doesn't secure one of the top four or five options.

Andrew Erickson uses Mark Andrews' health status as context for Isaiah Likely's upside. Likely has been a top-five tight end in points per game when Andrews missed time, but last year Andrews stayed healthy for the entire season while Likely was injured before the start of the year. This historical pattern supports Likely's ceiling projection.

Andrew Erickson champions Isaiah Likely as a late-round tight end with an elite ceiling matching top-five fantasy production at a fraction of the cost of premium tight ends. Likely has been a top-five tight end in points per game when Mark Andrews missed time; John Harbaugh's decision to bring Likely from Baltimore to the Giants suggests confidence. With Malik Neighbors recovering from a torn ACL and uncertain availability, Likely is projected to lead the Giants in targets early in the season. Erickson frames Likely as the perfect late-round tight end alternative to Brock Bowers or Colston Loveland. Jake Seeley agrees, calling Likely one of his most-attacked tight ends later in the draft; if Seeley doesn't secure one of the top four or five tight ends, Likely is one of his most targeted tight ends in later rounds.

Jake Seeley identifies Colston Loveland as a league-winner tight end prospect, expressing confidence in Loveland's upside as a preferred alternative among late-round tight end options. Seeley acknowledges the challenge of securing premium tight ends like Brock Bowers or Loveland depending on draft position.

Andrew Erickson mentions Brock Bowers as a premium tight end option he considered for his must-have list but ultimately decided against in favor of late-round tight end strategy. Bowers is positioned as a top-tier tight end target, though Erickson acknowledges the difficulty of securing him depending on draft position.

Andrew Erickson projects Greg Dulcich will see a ton of red zone opportunities this year with Kevin Petula (who oversaw Dallas Goddard's outlier red zone usage) now in Miami. This suggests Dulcich benefits from increased red zone volume in the Eagles' offense.

Jake Seeley and Andrew Erickson both advocate for Devontae Smith as a value play in the Eagles' revamped offense. Seeley notes Smith finished as a wide receiver one twice when A.J. Brown missed games, and maintains top-15/top-16 points-per-game production even in full seasons. With the Eagles shifting to more under-center play action and pre-snap motion under new coordinator Sean Mannion, Seeley projects Smith could reach 14–16 fantasy points per game. Erickson emphasizes Smith's proven track record as a top-producing receiver when elevated to number-one status, citing her delivery every time she's had opportunities. Both experts prefer Smith alongside Malik Lemon rather than choosing between them.

Jake Seeley and Andrew Erickson reference A.J. Brown's presence as context for Devontae Smith's production. Smith has finished as a wide receiver one twice when Brown missed games, and maintains top-15/top-16 points-per-game production even in full seasons with Brown healthy.

Andrew Erickson projects Trevor Lawrence as a potential fantasy QB1 overall in 2026, citing his week-five-onward performance last year when he outscored every other quarterback in half-PPR at 23 points per game and finished top-five overall in points per game. Lawrence was first in expected fantasy points per game entering his second season with offensive coordinator Liam Cohen (who oversaw Baker Mayfield's 40+ touchdown season in 2024). Erickson emphasizes Lawrence's dual-threat value: he was third in the NFL in red zone rushes last year, and those attempts were designed calls unlikely to disappear. At QB9 ADP, Erickson views him as late-round quarterback territory with top-five or QB1 upside.

Andrew Erickson cites Baker Mayfield's 40+ touchdown season in 2024 under offensive coordinator Liam Cohen as evidence of Cohen's offensive system's productivity. This context supports Erickson's projection that Trevor Lawrence, entering his second season with Cohen, could replicate or exceed similar production.

Joe Mixon's volume-reliant production with the Texans over the past two years serves as context for the backfield's touch distribution. Mixon's historical touch volume (approaching 300 touches in his heyday) is used as a benchmark for understanding the Texans backfield's available workload.

Jake Seeley identifies Montgomery as a supreme value play at RB2/high-end RB3 in early mock drafts. Taking 60% of the Texans' rushing production from the past two years (combining Joe Mixon and Woody Marks/Gerard Jordan) yields RB24 as a floor; Seeley argues 60% is itself conservative and could reach 65% as Montgomery approaches 300 touches. The Texans backfield generated only five combined rushing touchdowns last year, and Montgomery's proven ability to reach the end zone creates significant upside. Seeley projects Montgomery as a potential top-15 running back at bottom-tier pricing, with only upside if he's 10% more productive per touch than recent Texans backs.

The source notes that the Jets drafted D'Angelo Pons with the expectation that he could break the team's interception drought by returning one for a touchdown, positioning him as a potential defensive playmaker in week one. The Jets' historical interception struggles suggest regression toward the mean, and the source indicates the team views Pons as a key piece to capitalize on that expected uptick in turnovers.

The source characterizes Geno Smith as 'cooked' heading into week one against Tennessee. Coming off a year where he threw for just over 200 yards per game with a 19-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Smith is in hot water despite his previous breakout season with Seattle.

Michael Penix Jr. is less likely than Tua Tagovailoa to start for the Falcons in week one due to health considerations, though the exact starter remains uncertain heading into the matchup against Pittsburgh.

Aaron Rodgers is finally starting OTAs from the beginning this year. The source highlights his strong week one track record as a starter: 12-6 overall, 8-3 with Mike McCarthy at the helm, with 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, positioning him favorably for the Packers' week one matchup.

Kyle Pitts is identified as the Falcons' primary target over the middle in week one against Pittsburgh, suggesting he will be a focal point of the Atlanta offense in the matchup as Drake London faces lockdown coverage from Joey Porter Jr.

Drake London will likely be locked up by Joey Porter Jr. in week one against Pittsburgh. With Porter Jr. not allowing a regular season touchdown since week eight of 2023, and the Falcons' receiving options limited with Kyle Pitts being the primary target over the middle, London faces a difficult matchup against Pittsburgh's improved secondary.

Joey Porter Jr. is expected to remain with the Steelers (not sit out) despite seeking a new contract. The source notes that the last time he allowed a regular season touchdown was week eight of 2023, positioning him to lock up Drake London in week one against Atlanta.

Jaquan Brisker is returning to his hometown to play safety for the Steelers after missing time, strengthening Pittsburgh's secondary heading into week one against Atlanta.

The source highlights that the Steelers have improved their wide receiver room by adding Michael Pittman Jr., positioning him as part of a much-improved receiving corps for Pittsburgh in Week 1 against Atlanta.

The source notes that Cam Sims may take time to get back into game shape after missing a significant portion of the previous season, which could affect his early-season availability and performance for the Giants.

Prescott owns the Giants with a 14-3 straight-up record against them and is 10-6 against the spread as a road favorite within the division. The source notes that Dallas is the far superior team and that the line of minus-1.5 is too small given Prescott's dominance over New York.

The source notes that Kyler Murray traditionally starts seasons hot before Call of Duty comes out, but questions his reliability, calling him a quitter who quit on the Cardinals last year and quits every year when Call of Duty releases; the source is bullish on Murray as a divisional home underdog, but cannot back the Packers with confidence because of Murray's inconsistency.

Uncertainty about how healthy Tucker Craft will be in his first game for the Packers; cited as one of the question marks about Green Bay heading into Week 1.

The source notes that Malik Willis has made you pay when fading him in the past; despite the Raiders being favored, Willis may not even play in Week 1 as Kirk Cousins is expected to start instead.

The source wants to fade Kirk Cousins into oblivion in Week 1 when the Raiders start him instead of their number one overall pick; Cousins led the Falcons to a 34-10 loss against the Dolphins last year, and the source believes the Dolphins are being undervalued as underdogs against a Raiders team starting Cousins.

The source's favorite player prop bet in the Texans-Bills game is Tank Dell over 1.5 receptions; the source is bullish on Dell's return and calls the 1.5 reception line generous, suggesting Dell will easily exceed that target share.

Day three pick thrust into a three-down running back role despite being drafted as a pass-catching back from USC; his poor fit in the role made the Texans offense one-dimensional and put more pressure on CJ Stroud.

Last year's Texans running back who did not fit the scheme as well as Dave Montgomery; his presence limited the Texans' ability to use play-action effectively.

The source expresses concern that Stroud has regressed since his rookie year and cannot be trusted in Week 1 against the Bills; this is a make-or-break year for Stroud with the Texans. However, the source notes Stroud should benefit from an upgraded offensive line and Dave Montgomery's addition to the offense, which provides effective play-action opportunities Stroud has never had before.

Coming off Achilles injury with no preseason reps expected; likely to be rusty in Week 1 and may not hit on deep attempts to receivers; the source wants to fade the Colts offense in the high-total Colts-Ravens matchup because of Jones's uncertain health status and expected regression after a historic 2025 pace. Jones has literally no idea what type of state he's going to be in because he's not expected to play at all during the preseason.

Dealing with an offseason injury and not likely to see a lot of reps early in training camp; may not hit on deep attempts from Daniel Jones in Week 1 due to Jones's rust coming off Achilles injury.

Uncertainty about how he will look in the 49ers offense in Week 1; the source cites this as part of the reason to fade the 49ers offense early in the season.

Coming back from injury but not 100% healthy heading into Week 1 against the Rams; the source cites this as a reason to fade the 49ers offense early in the season.

Mike Evans' scary comp is Alan Robinson as a Ram in 2022 (Robinson was a fourth-round pick in many leagues but scored 8.5 PPR points per game that year). JJ Zachariason says he doesn't genuinely think that's the outcome for Evans and likes him more than DJ Moore. While he hasn't been heavily targeting Evans, he prefers him to DJ Moore given both are aged players who changed teams.

Chris Godwin's scary comp is Robert Woods in 2022 (when Woods changed environments and his career declined). Market score does not like Godwin because he was not very good last year. JJ Zachariason has drafted Godwin at times (he was one of his highest roster wide receivers on DraftKings at one point) but only by telling himself a story that last year he was banged up and recovering from injury. The comp is valid as a cautionary tale, though Zachariason doesn't think this is the outcome.

JJ Zachariason is drafting Isaiah Likely and thinks he's a really interesting player this year. Likely's scary comp is John Smith in 2021 (when Smith moved to New England and scored 4.5 PPR points per game), but Zachariason notes similarities in overall ADP, positional ADP, and market score. Likely will play slot on slot role, which is a positive indicator Zachariason is tracking for tight ends.

Matthew Golden's scary comp is Sky Moore in 2023; both had nearly identical positional ADP (50 vs. 49). Golden has a market score of one (among top-10-round players), while Sky Moore's was zero. Sky Moore scored less than four PPR points per game that year. JJ Zachariason notes this is a floor comp, not a median outcome, but the similarities are striking.

JJ Zachariason likes Parker Washington and notes he has good peripherals and is in a good system, but his scary comp is Hunter Renfro in 2022. Both had similar overall ADP (69 vs. 71), positional ADP (33 vs. 30), and market scores (37 vs. 43). Renfro had production early then disappeared in year four with six PPR points per game. Britain Covey's recent production suggests Washington could be next on the list.

JJ Zachariason warns that DJ Moore has a scary floor despite an interesting ceiling. The scary market score comp is Julio Jones in 2021, who scored 6.4 PPR points per game after switching from Atlanta to Tennessee. DJ Moore is in year nine and switched teams similarly. While Zachariason doesn't think this comp will happen, it serves as a cautionary tale about downside risk, as Julio Jones was a horrible pick that year.

JJ Zachariason would be very hesitant with Khalil Shakir due to his very low average depth of target (ADOT). Analysis of wide receiver hit rates by previous season ADOT from 2014-2025 shows that late-round wide receivers with ADOT below 9 yards underperformed versus ADP expectation by about 0.7 points per game on average. Shakir's low ADOT makes him a risky late-round pick.

JJ Zachariason has many Brandon Aiyuk teams in best ball but is cutting bait on him. If Aiyuk had his head on straight off the field, he could be a top-100 player going in the 200s; if everything was fine and he went to Washington, he'd probably be drafted around round seven after the Jaguars guys and Brian Thomas Jr., before Cortland Sutton-type players. However, the off-field concerns and year away from football create negative market sentiment that Zachariason is no longer willing to fight against.

JJ Zachariason is a little worried about Mahomes from an ADP standpoint, not from a health standpoint. While Mahomes averaged over 20 points per game last season with good rushing production, he was a pretty mediocre fantasy quarterback for multiple seasons before that. Zachariason is a couple of spots below ADP with Mahomes due to name recognition inflating his draft cost.

JJ Zachariason still thinks Trey McBride will be overdrafted in most drafts. Concerns stem from the Cardinals likely running fewer pass plays than last year under new coach and system, which is problematic for McBride since he wasn't phenomenal on a per-route-run basis—he ran hot in touchdowns and ran an obscene amount of routes. The reduction in pass plays could significantly impact his fantasy output.

JJ Zachariason may still call out Michael Wilson in the avoid section of the guide for season-long leagues, despite being more okay with Cardinals wide receiver picks overall. While Wilson was excellent last year, there's a real chance the gap between him and Marvin Harrison Jr. is smaller in season-long than in best ball, making him less attractive for redraft formats. The gap between Harrison and Wilson has widened to proper levels—now a two-round difference—which reflects the proper valuation difference between the two receivers.

JJ Zachariason views Marshawn Lloyd as more undervalued than Jaden Blue despite injury concerns. Lloyd is a really good one-B in the backfield with potential to become the one-A if Josh Jacobs is sidelined. Matt LaFleur's teams have never ranked outside the top half of the league in touchdowns per game since he arrived in Green Bay, making Lloyd a good pick at his current cost.

JJ Zachariason notes that the Seahawks did not draft Jeremiah Love with the expectation that he would be a dominant force in the backfield, unlike some other recent running back selections. This uncertainty around the running back situation contributes to the possibility that Seattle will need to pass more than they did last year.

JJ Zachariason notes that Rashid Shahid took away target share from Chris Alave when both were on the Saints last year, and after Shahid left, Alave experienced a 'rocket ship' in production. This demonstrates Shahid's ability to command targets and his efficiency as a receiver, providing context for Alave's improved outlook once Shahid departed.

JJ Zachariason is skeptical of the Charlie Kolar receiving threat narrative despite reports and The Athletic ranking him 14th among Chargers' most important players. He notes Kolar has peaked at 142 receiving yards in his career and worries about his true ceiling. While he'd consider Kolar in point-per-snap leagues or as a 20th-round best-ball dart, he expects Kolar to be primarily a streamer in season-long leagues. The McDaniel offense values blocking and all-around tight end play, and with David Njoku, Aranda Gadsden, and capable wide receivers in the mix, Kolar's target share ceiling is likely only 13-14%, limiting his fantasy upside.

JJ Zachariason is 'a little bit lower than the market on Kyron Williams this year' and was also lower on him last year. While Williams played above expectation based on ADP last year, the Rams' offense dominated and Zachariason doesn't believe that level of offensive dominance can be banked on year over year. The backfield split with Blake Corum is expected to be more even, with Williams getting the most important touches (goal line, receiving), but the overall volume picture is less favorable than his ADP suggests. Kyron Williams' scary comp is Alvin Kamara from last year (year nine for Kamara vs. year five for Williams). Overall ADP, positional ADP, and market scores are very similar. The comp speaks to what could happen with Williams in terms of effectiveness and efficiency not necessarily being there, but him being a volume getter, which has been helpful for him in fantasy. Market score does not hate Kyron Williams, which is why Zachariason has been on the edge about putting him as an avoid.

JJ Zachariason says you can 'kind of buy' the prediction that Blake Corum will push for 1,000 yards this season. Last year Corum was efficient (5.1 yards per attempt) and was only 200 yards away from 1,000 despite not being heavily used early in the season. He notes that Corum missed time due to a fumble in a Thursday night game against San Francisco, and if that kind of early-game benching doesn't happen, a scenario with a 50-50 ground split with Kyron Williams is plausible, giving Corum a path to 1,000 yards.

JJ Zachariason cautions against comparing Jadarian Price to first-round running backs like B.J. Robinson or Jameer Gibbs; Price is more comparable to second-round backs like Ramondre Stevenson or Jalen Warren. Market score likes him in the Stevenson/Warren tier rather than the year-two tier (Judkins, Tootin). His DraftKings ADP is around pick 61 (end of fifth round), roughly a full round and a half below where he's being drafted in some circles. However, Zachariason expresses concern about justifying Price's draft value based on teammate competition rather than his own talent; Price has never been a lead back in his career, and reports of committee involvement with George Helani and Emmanuel Wilson create volatility. Zachariason cautions against using the 'who else is going to get the volume' argument repeatedly, as it's a hallmark of running back busts. Market score for Price is 24.3 (compared to Caleb Johnson's 20.4), which is bad for where he's being drafted. Zachariason doesn't expect the Caleb Johnson outcome because Price has better draft capital and the Steelers have shown they can use multiple backs effectively (Jalen Warren, Kenny Gainwell), but cautions against assuming lack of competition means safety. Despite these concerns, Zachariason will target Price when he falls into the Ramondre Stevenson/Jalen Warren tier; in a recent DraftKings draft, Price fell to pick 70 (seventh round), and Zachariason built a strong zero-RB team around him with Jackson Smith-Njigba, creating a Seattle stack. At that price point, he views Price as a value play.

JJ Zachariason views Marshawn Lloyd as more undervalued than Jaden Blue despite injury history. Lloyd is a really good one-B backfield prospect who could become the one-A if Josh Jacobs is sidelined. Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay teams have never ranked outside the top half of the league in touchdowns per game, making Lloyd a good pick in that high-scoring offense.

JJ Zachariason notes that Chris Alave saw a 'rocket ship' breakout after Rashid Shahid left the Saints, indicating that Shahid had been commanding target share from Alave. This demonstrates Shahid's ability to impact target distribution and supports the view that Shahid is an elite-efficient receiver capable of taking targets from teammates.

JJ Zachariason is skeptical of the Charlie Kolar receiving threat narrative despite reports and the Athletic ranking him 14th among Chargers' most important players. Zachariason notes Kolar has peaked at 142 receiving yards in his career and worries about his ceiling as a fantasy asset. While he'd consider Kolar in point-per-snap leagues or as a 20th-round best-ball dart, Zachariason expects Kolar to be primarily a streamer in season-long leagues. He cites McDaniel's system preference for blocking tight ends, competition from Aranda Gadsden, David Njoku, and wide receivers, and questions whether a 13-14% target share ceiling is viable for consistent fantasy production.

JJ Zachariason is 'a little bit lower than the market on Kyron Williams this year' and was also lower on him last year. While Williams played above expectation based on ADP last year due to receiving work and goal-line touches, the Rams' offense dominated and that level of offensive dominance cannot be banked on year-over-year. Zachariason expects regression in the Rams' defense and uncertainty in the running back situation to limit Williams' upside relative to his current draft position. Williams' scary comp is last year's Alvin Kamara (year nine); while the NFL years differ (Williams is in year five), their overall ADP, positional ADP, and market score are very similar. However, market score does not hate Kyron Williams, which makes Zachariason uncertain about whether to label him an avoid.

JJ Zachariason is buying the Athletic's prediction that Blake Corum could push for 1,000 yards this season. Corum was efficient last year with 5.1 yards per attempt and fell just 200 yards short of 1,000 despite limited early-season usage and a fumble in a Thursday night game against San Francisco that resulted in him being benched. Zachariason notes that if that fumble and subsequent benching don't occur, Corum could see a more balanced 50-50 split with Kyron Williams on the ground, increasing his volume. He acknowledges Corum's efficiency and opportunity for increased touches down the stretch.

JJ Zachariason notes that Darnell Washington received a report about losing weight and being used more in the offense, which caused his ADP to spike in drafts. Zachariason was planning to draft Washington in round 20 but someone took him in round 19 ahead of him due to the report. This illustrates how day-of reports can cause immediate ADP movement as drafters seek exposure before broader market adjustment.

JJ Zachariason cautions against clustering Jadarian Price with front-half first-round running backs; Price was drafted at the end of the first round and historically back-half first-round RBs significantly underperform front-half picks. Zachariason ranks Price closer to second-round RB archetypes like Ramondre Stevenson and Jalen Warren than to year-two backs like Bijan Robinson or Trey Judkins. Price has never demonstrated lead-back production at any level, and reports of other running backs being involved in Seattle's backfield make sense given his profile; Zachariason cautions against using teammate competition as the primary justification for drafting Price rather than his own talent, citing this as a pattern that leads to busts. He describes Price as 'a highly volatile prospect' with a wide range of outcomes and expects his ADP to continue slipping from the end of the fifth round (around pick 61 on DraftKings) into the sixth-round range as reports of backfield competition circulate. Price's scary comp is Caleb Johnson from 2025; both are rookies with similar market scores (Price 24.3 vs. Johnson 20.4), and while a market score of 24 isn't inherently horrible within the top-120 context, it is bad for where Price is being drafted.