NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Wednesday, July 1, 2026

2022 Jalen Hurts was a fantasy cheat code 🔗: <http://17-0.sleeper.com>

Caleb Williams says his completion percentage doesn't tell the full story: "I throw the ball away the most to try and keep us in advantageous positions because I know Coach will go for it on 4th down. We'll get it up this year to shut everybody up and help everybody understand." (via @​PardonMyTake)

These are the only RBs who've received 200+ carries in a season from Brian Daboll (as an HC/OC) Peyton Hillis Reggie Bush Jamaal Charles Saquon Barkley Mostly sharing because I found it funny that his backfields basically either had an all-pro talent or were a gross committee involving Devin Singletary

Most TDs by a TE in the last two seasons: 17 - Mark Andrews (34 Games) 15 - George Kittle (26 Games) 15 - Trey McBride (33 Games) 13 - Tucker Kraft (25 Games) Tucker Kraft & George Kittle are insane.

Most TDs by a TE in the last two seasons: 17 - Mark Andrews (34 Games) 15 - George Kittle (26 Games) 15 - Trey McBride (33 Games) 13 - Tucker Kraft (25 Games) Tucker Kraft & George Kittle are insane.

Emory is on point here citing Henry's elite power, efficiency, and longevity. Big picture: Henry has become an archetype. We don't compare him to other players now. He's the platonic ideal of the speed/size/power RB that strikes fear in the hearts of defensive backs. True 1 of 1 [Quoted](

Emory is on point here citing Henry's elite power, efficiency, and longevity. Big picture: Henry ha.s become an archetype. We don't care him to other players now. He's the platonic ideal of the speed/size/power RB that strikes fear in the hearts of defensive backs. A true 1 of 1 [Quoted](

“I personally think Hurts is one of the more mispriced QBs right now.” @​adamlevitan and @​notJDaigle discuss the potential changes in Philly’s offense under Sean Mannion:

Sir Marvin Harrison has another son [Quoted](

There’s plenty of positional insight in these interviews. A few key WR points from this interview: -Lots of 11 man personnel in Green Bay this year. They were league average in 11 last year. -Jayden Reed is expected to be the primary slot but no mention of his role in two wide sets. Not a big deal if 11 is Green Bay’s base set. -Savion Williams is expected to see a decent amount of playing time. -Jordan Love mentioned that Williams is not being discussed enough but needs more reps.

There’s plenty of positional insight in these interviews. A few key WR points from this interview: -Lots of 11 man personnel in Green Bay this year. They were league average in 11 last year. -Jayden Reed is expected to be the primary slot but no mention of his role in two wide sets. Not a big deal if 11 is Green Bay’s base set. -Savion Williams is expected to see a decent amount of playing time. -Jordan Love mentioned that Williams is not being discussed enough but needs more reps.

There’s plenty of positional insight in these interviews. A few key WR points from this interview: -Lots of 11 man personnel in Green Bay this year. They were league average in 11 last year. -Jayden Reed is expected to be the primary slot but no mention of his role in two wide sets. Not a big deal if 11 is Green Bay’s base set. -Savion Williams is expected to see a decent amount of playing time. -Jordan Love mentioned that Williams is not being discussed enough but needs more reps.

After going back and charting him, I felt like Zay Flowers took a step in his game and it seems to have flown under the radar. Maybe I'm off base but not sure he gets the pub he should as a really productive player. From the latest 301 with @​Nate_Tice:

Tetairoa McMillan finished as a Top 10 fantasy WR on the week just 1 time in his rookie season. Will he have a year 2 breakout?

Josh Allen's ANY/A by season: 2018: 4.37 2019: 5.71 2020: 7.81 2021: 6.38 *Brian Daboll leaves* 2022: 6.99 2023: 6.51 2024: 7.96 2025: 6.84 Allen has been more efficient than in Daboll's final year each of the past four seasons, including two without Stefon Diggs/a star WR1.

The only quarterbacks to throw for 4,000+ yards in each of the past two seasons: -Jared Goff -Sam Darnold

New Football 301! @​MattHarmon_BYB joined me fresh off of his vacation for a MAILBAG episode. - How will Brian Daboll fit with Cam Ward? - The most underrated position groups - "Him or me" scenarios - Top young OTs in the NFL (📽️) and more! [Retweeted](

TRUE OR FALSE - Bills WR DJ Moore will finish as a Top 24 WR this season.

Largest shares of a team's designed targets over the past two seasons combined [min. 10 games] 1. Ja'Marr Chase - 56.0% 2. Deebo Samuel - 54.9% 3. Puka Nacua - 53.7% 4. Rashee Rice - 52.3% 5. Bijan Robinson - 49.0% @​FantasyPtsData

Largest shares of a team's designed targets over the past two seasons combined [min. 10 games] 1. Ja'Marr Chase - 56.0% 2. Deebo Samuel - 54.9% 3. Puka Nacua - 53.7% 4. Rashee Rice - 52.3% 5. Bijan Robinson - 49.0% @​FantasyPtsData

Largest shares of a team's designed targets over the past two seasons combined [min. 10 games] 1. Ja'Marr Chase - 56.0% 2. Deebo Samuel - 54.9% 3. Puka Nacua - 53.7% 4. Rashee Rice - 52.3% 5. Bijan Robinson - 49.0% @​FantasyPtsData

Largest shares of a team's designed targets over the past two seasons combined [min. 10 games] 1. Ja'Marr Chase - 56.0% 2. Deebo Samuel - 54.9% 3. Puka Nacua - 53.7% 4. Rashee Rice - 52.3% 5. Bijan Robinson - 49.0% @​FantasyPtsData

Recent players to finish as the fantasy RB1: 2026 - ? 2025 - Christian McCaffrey 2024 - Saquon Barkley 2023 - Christian McCaffrey 2022 - Austin Ekeler 2021 - Jonathan Taylor

Recent players to finish as the fantasy RB1: 2026 - ? 2025 - Christian McCaffrey 2024 - Saquon Barkley 2023 - Christian McCaffrey 2022 - Austin Ekeler 2021 - Jonathan Taylor

Recent players to finish as the fantasy RB1: 2026 - ? 2025 - Christian McCaffrey 2024 - Saquon Barkley 2023 - Christian McCaffrey 2022 - Austin Ekeler 2021 - Jonathan Taylor

Recent players to finish as the fantasy RB1: 2026 - ? 2025 - Christian McCaffrey 2024 - Saquon Barkley 2023 - Christian McCaffrey 2022 - Austin Ekeler 2021 - Jonathan Taylor

@​32BeatWriters Sorry I couldn't get to your question yesterday, as I had finished it and was out of town. But to answer it here, Montogomery and Marks will split carries in the sense that you'll see Marks spell him. But Montgomery should get the bulk.

@​32BeatWriters Sorry I couldn't get to your question yesterday, as I had finished it and was out of town. But to answer it here, Montogomery and Marks will split carries in the sense that you'll see Marks spell him. But Montgomery should get the bulk.

Every Michael Wilson reception of 20+ yards in 2025 From Week 9 onward, only Puka Nacua (18), Jameson Williams (18), and Parker Washington (14) had more than Wilson (13)

Brian Thomas Jr.’s 2025 season was a disaster… What factors contributed to the disappointing season and will he turn it around? [Retweeted](

Brock Purdy lands at No. 85 on the NFL Top 100 list.

Some Giants injury updates from @​JordanRaanan in here. * Malik Nabers (ACL) a coinflip to be ready for Week 1 * Cam Skattebo (ankle dislocation) expected to be full-go for start of training camp <https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49226999/healthy-cam-skattebo-full-summer-prepare-new-york-giants-season>

Some Giants injury updates from @​JordanRaanan in here. * Malik Nabers (ACL) a coinflip to be ready for Week 1 * Cam Skattebo (ankle dislocation) expected to be full-go for start of training camp <https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/49226999/healthy-cam-skattebo-full-summer-prepare-new-york-giants-season>

Among 33 QBs with 50+ dropbacks utilizing during-snap motion in 2025, these were the largest % increases in ANY/A: 1. C.J. Stroud: +53.4% 2. Baker Mayfield: +52.8% 3. Bryce Young: +52.3% 4. Jared Goff: +38.1% 5. Shedeur Sanders: +37.8% @​FantasyPtsData

176 seconds of Baker Mayfield scrambling around like a mad man

Chris Godwin has been one of my biggest flips in stance throughout the offseason (bullish now). I feel strongly about a bounce-back for this Bucs offense, as Baker's injury very clearly hindered his play midseason after multiple years of solid to elite performance. Godwin is aging (although only 30 for entire 2026 season) but we know how good he can be. He was coming into the 2025 season off a brutal ankle fracture which tanked his efficiency a bit and derailed most of his season. By the last...

Chris Godwin has been one of my biggest flips in stance throughout the offseason (bullish now). I feel strongly about a bounce-back for this Bucs offense, as Baker's injury very clearly hindered his play midseason after multiple years of solid to elite performance. Godwin is aging (although only 30 for entire 2026 season) but we know how good he can be. He was coming into the 2025 season off a brutal ankle fracture which tanked his efficiency a bit and derailed most of his season. By the last...

Tetairoa McMillan comps to Andre Johnson? And that’s not even a good thing for his Year 2 outlook?! What in the hell do we do with TMac in 2026 Fantasy Football drafts? Beyond the Box Score: <https://youtu.be/GOA1LCV_1-I?is=Kgaz6qrbvOe4EvZN>

New edition The RP Mailbag is up on the channel! Topics include: - Olave WR1 leap - Dynasty super buy lows - Ryan Flournoy - 100 questions about heavy personnel - Memories from Europe vacation - and much more Watch and subscribe at the link below 👇

Trey McBride says the Seahawks are the NFC West rival he dislikes the most: “That’s a tough place to play. Their defense is a bunch of shit talkers. They have a really good team, too, so I feel like every time we go to Seattle it’s such a hostile environment.”

Red zone targets are a predictive stat. Even more so than air yards and receiving TDs. Of the 27 WR seasons (min. 8 games) to average 18.0+ FPG since 2021, 22 saw >1.0 red zone target per game. The group averaged 1.45. JSN averaged exactly 1.0 red zone target per game in 2025.

Article lists Jordyn Tyson as a dynasty buy target. Community sentiment is positive with no critical pushback; treated as a consensus buy.

Article recommends Mitchell as a cheap buy with top-30 upside. Community is deeply polarized. Believers emphasize zero-risk high-reward profile at minimal cost (e.g., 4th-round pick or taxi squad), top-30 upside, and physical ability; note he was traded to Jets and may improve with opportunity. Skeptics cite third-worst catch% last year, poor target efficiency (7, 10, 4, 5, 6, 6 targets end-of-season), limited opportunity ahead (WR3 role), and history of being in previous team's doghouse; warn he's 'cheap for a reason' and will be 'useless outside of BB and desperation plays.' One supporter traded a 2026 3rd for him pre-rookie draft; another took him as WR4/WR5 in best-ball startup. Catch...

Article recommends Watson as a buy; community is sharply divided. Supporters cite 5.5 targets per game post-ACL return with zero games under 4 targets and 2 catches; note 3rd-highest ADOT in league and upside if Packers increase target volume. Critics argue Watson has only 1 game with 8+ targets in 25 games since 2024 start, averaging 3–5 targets per game with poor catch efficiency (e.g., 10 targets for 4 catches); highlight injury risk (30% games missed/early exits) and volatility as TD-dependent. Kraft is WR1; Reed getting more looks. Range debate: supporters say 5.5 avg; critics say closer to 3–5 with outliers.

Article lists A.J. Brown as a dynasty buy target. Community sentiment is uniformly positive with no pushback; treated as a consensus buy at current cost.

Route tree expected to change significantly in San Francisco compared to his prior role as X receiver in Bruce Arians' offenses with Tom Brady; shift reflects broader trend of X receivers running more in-breaking routes over the middle rather than deep outside the numbers.

Missed offseason time with a hamstring injury, which Matt Harmon views as concerning for rookie receiver development. Harmon dislikes when rookie receivers miss any offseason time because they start behind, citing Luther Burden's 2024 experience as a cautionary example where he didn't get much playing time early in the season beyond gimmick stuff due to missing mini camps and OTAs. Despite the concern, Harmon believes Nabers is talented enough to still open as WR2, though he may play catch-up early.

Matt Harmon selects Jefferson as his pick for aging most gracefully among elite young receivers. Harmon cites multiple factors: Jefferson is a high-caliber athlete, the best route runner in the group, and an elite technician. Harmon projects Jefferson could become an even better version of late-career Stefon Diggs, maintaining elite production as he ages because his game relies on technique rather than quick-twitch athleticism.

Perimeter X receiver with heavy diet of in-breaking routes; this archetype is increasingly valuable in today's game due to efficiency gains from throwing over the middle of the field against two-high safety shells.

Power slot archetype receiver who excels at zone beating and YAC; Matt Harmon prefers Godwin over Rashee Rice from an overall well-roundedness standpoint, noting his ability to get the ball in his hands underneath and run after the catch, with capability to work against man coverage in specific situations.

Matt Harmon expresses concern about long-term durability and aging trajectory. While Lamb is an elite technician with press-man coverage strength, Harmon worries that the physical toll of getting blasted repeatedly throughout his career could accumulate and impact his ability to age gracefully compared to peers like Justin Jefferson.

Perimeter X receiver with heavy diet of in-breaking routes; this archetype is increasingly valuable in today's game due to efficiency gains from throwing over the middle of the field against two-high safety shells. Ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game, just behind Rashee Rice (fifth), George Pickens, Drake London, Davante Adams, and Chris Olave.

Ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game, just behind Rashee Rice (fifth) and George Pickens.

Ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game, just behind Rashee Rice (fifth), George Pickens, and Drake London.

Ranks first in fantasy points per game among all receivers, ahead of Jackson Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Rashee Rice (fifth).

Ranks third in fantasy points per game among all receivers, behind Puka Nacua and Jackson Smith-Njigba, and ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice (fifth).

Ranks fourth in fantasy points per game among all receivers, behind Puka Nacua, Jackson Smith-Njigba, and Ja'Marr Chase, and ahead of Rashee Rice (fifth). Matt Harmon mentions St. Brown as worth consideration for an aging gracefully, late-career Keenan Allen-type role because he has become elite against press-man coverage in short and intermediate areas. However, Harmon expresses concern that St. Brown, like CeeDee Lamb, gets physically blasted and this toll could accumulate over his career.

Archetype comparison to Rashee Rice: both are high-usage receivers who hit their physical declines well before turning 30 due to taking a lot of punishment in their respective offenses.

Matt Harmon compares Deebo Samuel's archetype to Rashee Rice, noting both took running back reps in their respective offenses. Both hit their physical declines well before turning 30 due to taking a lot of punishment from high-usage, multi-positional deployment.

Matt Harmon has optimism for Dontayvion Wicks despite past overrating as a separator. Wicks had a promising rookie year and decent second season; Harmon expects him to play a pretty decent role in 2026 and wouldn't be surprised if he opens the season as WR2 for Philadelphia. Key factors: familiarity with OC Shawn Mannion from Green Bay, Wicks' remaining ability to contribute, and Malik Nabers' hamstring injury recovery timeline.

Matt Harmon does not expect Hollywood Brown to play a big role for Philadelphia in 2026, questioning whether he'll be more than a special teams contributor or fourth receiver option on the depth chart.

Slot-only receiver losing snaps as Indianapolis shifted to heavy personnel packages last year; traditional slot-only types are not getting on the field as much as personnel packages evolve, contributing to the decline of the wide receiver two archetype. Matt Harmon cites Downs as an example of how teams shifting to more heavy personnel reduces opportunities for slot-only receivers who don't run routes in those packages.

Matt Harmon expresses significant concern that Rashee Rice is being overvalued despite elite zone coverage performance. Rice posted an 83rd percentile success rate versus zone coverage in 2024 (8-game sample), ranking behind only Cooper Kupp's nuclear season and three Antonio Brown seasons all-time. However, Harmon identifies clear cracks in his game: man coverage score of 55.2% is the lowest of his three NFL seasons; success rate versus press (57.8%) is lower than his second season; career-high backfield snap rate of 7.4%. Rice is a zone beater and good underneath with the ball in his hands, but the Chiefs don't ask him to do anything beyond that because he can't. Despite ranking fifth in fantasy points per game (behind Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown), Rice is not well-rounded compared to other top-10 receivers—the Chiefs scheme around his limitations. Additionally, Rice is coming back from another knee injury and has taken a lot of punishment with several massive hits over the middle of the field last year, raising durability concerns similar to Juju Smith-Schuster and Deebo Samuel, both of whom hit physical declines well before turning 30.

Matt Harmon identifies George Pickens as a contested catch receiver whose training camp performance actually translates to NFL games, contrasting him with other padded-practice standouts. Pickens is one of the rare players who gets rave reviews in training camp and delivers on that promise in actual games, suggesting his hype is justified rather than inflated. Pickens finished the 2024 season fifth overall in fantasy points per game, establishing him as a recent example of elite receiver production and serving as a benchmark for the type of breakout season Harmon evaluates in other candidates.

Matt Harmon remains really high versus consensus on Brandon Aiyuk despite uncertainty around his off-field situation and expected move to Washington Commanders. In 2023, Aiyuk was a legitimately elite NFL receiver; 2024 was a wash due to being absent the whole off-season. Harmon recommends throwing him on the end of your bench in a rebuilding dynasty situation as a buy-low candidate to see what happens. At his peak, Aiyuk is a perimeter X receiver with a heavy diet of in-breaking routes, an archetype increasingly valuable in today's game due to efficiency gains from throwing over the middle against two-high safety shells.

Matt Harmon expresses hope that Garrett Wilson gets good quarterback play in 2025, suggesting his upside is dependent on the Jets' QB situation with Geno Smith. The implication is that Wilson's elite talent was hampered by poor quarterback play in 2024.

Matt Harmon remains higher than consensus on second-year receiver Jalen Nailor, noting he could run really good routes, separate at all three levels, and is a very explosive player. Despite circumstances affecting his year-one production, Harmon identifies him as a buy-low candidate and recommends stashing him on the end of your bench to see what happens.

Matt Harmon gives Xavier Worthy a pass for his disappointing 2024 season due to a shoulder injury sustained in week one when he collided with Travis Kelce on a mesh concept; Worthy wasn't 100% healthy all season. While acknowledging Worthy isn't a technically refined route runner and needs role catering, Harmon contextualizes his down year as injury-related rather than a talent decline.

Ryan Flournoy is Matt Harmon's current favorite deep sleeper at wide receiver, having been tracked since midway through last season. He demonstrates ability to beat man coverage and shows explosive athleticism with nice route running. As the Cowboys' third receiver, he could step in as a verifiable starting receiver if circumstances change, positioning him as an undiscovered gem by big NFL circles.

Jaylen Coker has graduated from deep sleeper status after securing a contract extension with the Carolina Panthers and delivering a massive playoff performance against the LA Rams in January. Matt Harmon framed him as last year's favorite deep sleeper in the league, but the extension and playoff breakout have elevated his profile and removed him from that undervalued category.

Matt Harmon is 61 spots ahead of consensus on Cyrus Allen in dynasty rankings, making him a strong buy-low candidate. The Chiefs fifth-round, day-three rookie wide receiver is 'the best man coverage beating separator on the Kansas City Chiefs roster' according to Harmon, who calls him a technically refined route runner. Allen wasn't invited to the combine (which Harmon found surprising) but demonstrates legitimate separation skills and man-coverage beating ability; Harmon recommends stashing him on the end of your bench as a potential breakout candidate, noting he's a smaller slot-based player who may need role catering but has legitimate separation skills.

Matt Harmon remains 'really high on Ricky Pearsall as a player' and believes he is 'objectively good.' Pearsall is currently behind Mike Evans in Tampa Bay's pecking order, making him the fourth receiver option in the offense. He faces headwinds including a crowded offense and injury questions, but Harmon rates him fourth among the four receivers discussed in the breakout segment (behind Olave, Odunze, and Marshall), suggesting he has some upside despite depth chart constraints.

Matt Harmon is 'very much in on Luther Burden' as a Chicago Bears receiver who will operate more in the short area of the offense under Ben Johnson. Burden is part of the Bears' positionless receiver deployment where receivers move around and play different positions rather than being locked into traditional X or slot roles; Harmon slightly prefers Rome Odunze but emphasizes both receivers can be liked simultaneously.

Matt Harmon ranks Terrace Marshall as the third most likely candidate (after Chris Olave and Rome Odunze) to produce a JSN or George Pickens-type breakout season. While Marshall is clearly the number one receiver in Carolina (unlike Odunze in Chicago who faces competition from DJ Moore and Colson Loveland), Harmon is not convinced Marshall's number one status will elevate him to JSN/Pickens territory due to ecosystem concerns: Bryce Young must dramatically improve, there is significant target competition (Jaylen Coker, Chris Brazell, Xavier Legette), and the team wants to be run-first. Marshall is a good player but the ceiling is capped by his surroundings. Additionally, Marshall has a foot injury that has kept him out of practice, a concern that received less attention than Odunze's foot injury in Twitter discourse.

Matt Harmon ranks Rome Odunze as the second most likely candidate (after Chris Olave) to produce a JSN or George Pickens-type breakout season. Harmon is a big Odunze fan and believes he could 'go bonkers' as Chicago's number one receiver. Odunze has a traditional route tree with vertical routes, big in-breakers, and intermediate/short area work that fits well with Ben Johnson's offense and Caleb Williams' arm talent. Harmon has more faith in the Chicago ecosystem than Carolina's for Terrace Marshall. Harmon slightly prefers Odunze to Luther Burden in the Chicago receiver hierarchy, though he emphasizes he is 'very much in on Luther Burden as well.' Regarding injury concerns: Odunze's foot injury comment ('this is my new normal') was overblown by Twitter discourse; he is practicing in full by all accounts and his head coach says 'Looks like the same old Rome to me,' indicating no material concern. Target competition from DJ Moore and Colson Loveland complicates his path to true number one receiver status, but Harmon views the upside as significant.

Matt Harmon ranks Chris Olave as the most likely of four candidates (Olave, Rome Odunze, Terrace Marshall, Ricky Pearsall) to produce a JSN or George Pickens-type breakout season. Olave essentially already achieved this in 2024, finishing as the sixth overall receiver in half-PPR points per game and ninth in total PPR scoring, right behind George Pickens' fifth-place finish. Harmon cites Olave's established status as a true number one receiver, the Saints offense trajectory, and his Reception Perception profile history as reasons for the bullish outlook. Harmon acknowledges a blood clot issue caused Olave to miss the final game of 2024 and notes he hasn't practiced yet this offseason, but frames this as a tracking item rather than a disqualifier. Olave ranks in the top 10 in fantasy points per game.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba exemplifies the WR1 archetype that consolidates targets in heavy personnel packages. When teams go to heavy personnel looks and throw vertically off play action, targets flow to the best receiver rather than spreading to secondary options, making Smith-Njigba the type to capture those opportunities. His 2023 rookie season is framed as the gold standard for the type of elite receiver emergence that defines a true wide receiver one.

Matt Harmon mentions Parker Washington as one of several newly added players to the Reception Perception site's year four player drop, which includes updated charts and player comparison tools. Washington is mentioned only as a newly available resource on the site, with no specific fantasy analysis, projection, or role commentary provided.

Denzel Boston recommends Antonio Williams as a late stacking option with Jayden Daniels in best ball formats, positioning the quarterback as the key to Williams' opportunity. This establishes Daniels as the quarterback context for Williams' rookie season projection.

Denzel Boston projects that Chigoziem Okonkwo has a chance to have a career year in Washington's offense.

Denzel Boston notes that Jamison Crowder will receive touches in Washington's passing game, establishing Crowder as a competing target for Antonio Williams' opportunity in the offense.

Denzel Boston identifies Trey Lon Burks as part of Antonio Williams' depth chart competition in Washington's passing game. Burks is listed alongside Jalen Lane as the primary competition for targets beyond Terry McLaurin, establishing a void at wide receiver two that Williams is positioned to fill.

Denzel Boston contextualizes Terry McLaurin as the focal point of Washington's passing game but notes McLaurin is north of 30 years old, positioning Antonio Williams as a youth and versatility boost to the offense. Boston projects Williams' rookie season could mirror McLaurin's third-round rookie impact, when McLaurin had a fantastic rookie year for Washington. This establishes McLaurin's role as the primary target but creates opportunity for Williams as the secondary receiver.

Denzel Boston identifies Deebo Samuel's offensive role as the template for Antonio Williams' usage in Washington. Williams is projected to step into the slot receiver role that Samuel occupied, with versatility to play flanker and Z receiver. Boston notes Deebo averaged double-digit points per game last season and that Washington could use Williams similarly as a threat for yards after the catch, leveraging his YAC ability and slot proficiency.

Denzel Boston uses Ladd McConkey as a comparison benchmark for Antonio Williams' rookie year ceiling. McConkey averaged 15 points per game in his rookie season, which Boston notes Williams would have to 'thread the needle' to match. The parallel between McConkey's and Williams' games is noted as 'not really that far off,' establishing McConkey's rookie production as a high-end but challenging target for Williams.

Third-round WR for Washington Commanders out of Clemson; 21 years old with outstanding 2024 college season: 74 catches, 902 receiving yards, 11 TDs; fourth all-time Clemson Tiger in receptions and TDs; Clemson has elite WR pedigree (Tee Higgins, DeAndre Hopkins). Compared to Ladd McConkey throughout draft process with parallels in their games; McConkey averaged 15 PPG in his rookie season, which Williams would have to 'thread the needle' to match. Denzel Boston identifies Williams as a deep sleeper with clear pathway to double-digit PPR scoring in his rookie season. Available after pick 200 even in wide receiver-heavy formats like NFFC, Williams projects to step into the Deebo Samuel slot receiver role in Washington with versatility to play flanker and Z receiver. His YAC ability and slot prowess are fantasy-friendly. Boston projects Williams could be a top waiver wire add after week one if he has a strong debut, and his rookie season could mirror Terry McLaurin's third-round rookie impact for Washington. The post-pick 200 price tag makes him a low-risk, high-upside target.

Denzel Boston cites Tank Dell's rookie year as a historical comp for Zakhari Branch's trajectory; Dell was a third-round pick out of University of Houston drafted by the Houston Texans and had one of the best third-round rookie years ever on a points-per-game basis, establishing the precedent for Branch's potential impact.

Rookie RB receiving upside play; compared to Keaton Mitchell rookie year, Devonta Freeman (positive fantasy precedent), and Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of speed and burst per Aaron Jones. CBS's Mike Renner called him most dynamic back in draft class after Jahmyr Love. The Athletic's Dane Brugler noted mismatch-creating athleticism and receiving upside as diet version of Devonta Freeman. At 188 lb, receiving work is critical to fantasy viability; contingent upside if Aaron Jones injured—Jones had 13.8% target share last year, and if Achane steps into that role with his home run hitting ability, he could thrive despite Jordan Mason capping backfield upside.

Sixth-round RB is an electric player with home run hitting ability despite his smaller 5'10 188 lb frame, which typically scares off NFL teams and fantasy managers. Sixth-round RBs rarely make instant impact as rookies, but Claiborne landed extremely well in his landing spot. His electric speed (4.37 40-time) and explosive play-making ability position him as a deep sleeper with upside in the final rounds of fantasy drafts. Claiborne posted 23 TDs and 1,950+ rushing yards over last 24 games at Wake Forest. Free look type play with potential to trend up significantly at training camp; could be Aaron Jones replacement given Jones' age (turning 32); fits late-round draft strategy and best-ball formats. Available around pick 250.

Second-round WR for Cleveland has dominated OTAs and rookie camps with phenomenal off-season performance. At 6'4 212 lbs, Boston profiles as a target-earning versatile weapon and red zone threat; he posted 20 TDs over his last two college seasons with 25%+ target share in both 2024 and 2025. Beat reporters compare his camp performance to Josh Gordon-level impact, suggesting he could be a foundational weapon for the Browns. Despite target competition from first-rounder Casey Concepcion and third-round TE Harold Fannin Jr., Boston has a chance to emerge from a young passing core. His ADP around pick 150 is significantly undervalued relative to his top-40 NFL draft capital and early-season production trajectory; true sleeper with great draft capital pedigree and track record for WRs with this draft capital to produce fantasy value.

Warren is included in JJ Zachariason's primary tight end strategy as a secondary option after Bowers and Loveland, representing a middle-tier target before pivoting to a wait-and-see approach on late-round tight ends.

Loveland is part of JJ Zachariason's primary tight end strategy recommendation alongside Bowers, representing the elite tier of tight end options to target early in drafts. The strategy emphasizes securing one of these top-tier options before waiting on late-round depth.

Nabers' early-season performance could significantly impact target distribution for other receivers on his team. Per JJ Zachariason, if Nabers underperforms early, tight end Kyle Pitts (referred to as Likely in context) could accumulate substantial targets as an alternative receiving option.

Washington is part of a weak wide receiver corps on the Dolphins alongside Jaylen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell; none of these receivers are considered good talent. Chris Bell, another option, is expected to miss approximately the first half of the season due to injury. This brutal receiving situation weakens the position overall and elevates tight end targets as the primary receiving alternative in the offense. Per JJ Zachariason: "Those guys are going to run a ton of routes, Malik Washington, Tolbert, and Tutu, but none of them are good."

Bell is expected to miss approximately the first half of the season due to injury, further weakening the Dolphins' receiving options and increasing target opportunity for tight ends as an alternative. His absence compounds an already weak wide receiver room that includes Malik Washington, Jaylen Tolbert, and Tutu Atwell—none of whom are considered good talent.

Early 18th-round tight end pick with WR1 opportunity on Dolphins. JJ Zachariason highlights Dulcich ranked second among tight ends in yards per route run and yards after catch per reception last season, fourth in explosive catch rate. Early OTA reports indicate he's been the favorite target of Malik Willis. Dolphins' top four wide receivers (Malik Washington, Jaylen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell) are all poor talent, with Bell likely out first half of season; weak WR room and non-competitive team context means no free agent additions expected, positioning Dulcich as clear receiving focal point despite Willis's uncertainty as quarterback. Zachariason recommends him as a good bet in two tight end builds, particularly as a late-round pairing with higher-ceiling options like Likely or Gadston, allowing multiple shots at tight end without significant ADP cost.

Late round 17 pick with significant upside in Dallas's 11-personnel heavy offense. JJ Zachariason notes Flournoy is highly productive when given opportunity last season (at least 68 receiving yards in all three games with 7+ targets, at least 114 yards in two games with 9+ targets). Staff has been gushing about his progression and route-running development all offseason with increased reps alongside Dak Prescott. Flournoy will run a ton of routes as Dallas resists league-wide shift toward multiple tight ends. Contingent upside as probable weekly starter if Lamb or Pickens suffers injury. Zachariason recommends him as a speculative late-round WR to target, with the strategy being to evaluate him in week one and cut if he underperforms, given the minimal draft cost.

Quentin Johnston is positioned as a starting outside WR in the Chargers offense alongside Ladd (slot/middle) and Keenan Allen (middle), forming the primary WR rotation. This depth chart context establishes Johnston as the primary outside receiver and frames Trey Harris as the third WR option behind him. Quinton Johnston is the primary outside WR in the Chargers offense. An injury to Johnston would elevate Trey Harris to a weekly WR2 in fantasy, representing the key upside scenario for Harris's late-round value.

Round 17 pick locked in as the third wide receiver in the Chargers offense with Keenan Allen gone, guaranteeing snaps in 11-personnel and frequent appearances in 12 and 13-personnel sets. JJ Zachariason emphasizes that people don't understand this role change because Harris wasn't in this role last year. Despite being a rookie fourth WR last season, Harris saw significant snaps in heavy and two-WR sets due to elite run-blocking ability—a priority for Mike McDaniel's ground-game-focused scheme. Harris is a versatile prospect capable of playing all three WR positions. While his route-running and man/zone press coverage need development, he has improved as a route runner in the offseason. Upside scenario: if Quentin Johnston misses time, Harris becomes a weekly WR2. Zachariason frames this as a lottery dart throw in a great offense with an elite QB and coordinator, offering ceiling upside at minimal cost.

Comparison baseline for Pacheco's potential role in Lions offense. Speaker uses Montgomery's production level as a ceiling benchmark, noting Pacheco is not Montgomery but could provide legitimate weekly value if he reaches 70% of Montgomery's output. Montgomery's role in the Lions offense—including occasional goal-line looks and clock-killing carries—serves as the template for Pacheco's upside.

Primary Lions RB with value despite not receiving 30 touches weekly. JJ Zachariason notes Gibbs will have occasional goal-line looks and clock-killing situations in the fourth quarter when the Lions are up by 14-21 points. If Gibbs misses time, he's the only running back on the roster talented enough to handle 17+ opportunities, making him a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 in good matchups. Gibbs will not hit his true ceiling in a season where he stays fully healthy, though this injury-dependency applies to all late-round RB picks.

Late-round RB49 with ceiling-dependent upside in Lions offense; locked in as RB2 behind Jahmyr Gibbs. JJ Zachariason argues Pacheco's baseline role will be larger than expected given Dan Campbell's preference for physical, high-effort runners. If Pacheco reaches 70% of David Montgomery's production level, he provides legitimate weekly value. Lions backfield scored 28.5 PPR points per game last season (5 PPG more than second-place Baltimore), and Detroit has the easiest rushing schedule in the league. Even at 30% of Lions RB volume, that equals 50% of volume on strong offenses like Vikings, Eagles, Cardinals, or Chargers from last season. In Gibbs-healthy scenarios, Pacheco offers occasional goal-line looks and clock-killing carries in blowouts; if Gibbs misses time (e.g., high ankle sprain), Pacheco's ceiling expands significantly. Zachariason targets Pacheco in the final rounds with a similar thesis to Keaontay Mitchell: the backfield won't be as productive overall, but the role will be much larger than public expectation given the new scheme and improved offensive line health.

Jakob Sanderson uses Nico Collins as a concrete example of a high-scoring contending asset that immediately shifts draft dynamics in a startup. Tapping Collins signals a year-one contention path and forces other managers to adjust their strategy accordingly.

Jakob Sanderson uses Christian McCaffrey as a concrete example of a high-scoring contending asset that immediately shifts draft dynamics in a startup. Tapping McCaffrey signals a year-one contention path and forces other managers to adjust their strategy accordingly. Sanderson cautions against over-committing to contention by taking too many aging stars like McCaffrey, noting that once you've secured top-tier contenders, diminishing returns set in and additional contending assets become less valuable than preserving future draft capital.

Jakob Sanderson cites Rhamondre Stevenson as an example of a narrative-dependent asset that gets continuously pushed down dynasty boards but can provide value for managers who can see past the narrative. Stevenson's value is dependent on understanding the narrative path to his upside, making him a contrarian value pick for those willing to bet against board consensus. Sanderson groups him with Rashad White as examples of undervalued assets.

Jakob Sanderson cites Rashad Bateman as a historical cautionary example of a year-3 wide receiver with theoretical upside that failed to deliver dynasty value. Bateman represents the trap of spending roster value on young players with multiple narrative paths to success who ultimately dissolve into nothing. Sanderson groups him with Jahan Dotson as examples to avoid repeating when evaluating similar bets on players like Jalen Coker.

Jakob Sanderson cites Jahan Dotson as a historical cautionary example of a year-3 wide receiver with theoretical upside that failed to deliver dynasty value. Dotson represents the trap of spending roster value on young players with multiple narrative paths to success who ultimately dissolve into nothing. Sanderson groups him with Rashad Bateman as examples to avoid repeating when evaluating similar bets on players like Jalen Coker.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Cortland Sutton as a boring veteran alternative to young unproven dynasty assets in startup bench construction. Sutton is the type of older player that contending teams might trade for mid-season (e.g., for a future second), making him more valuable than young WRs like Jalen Coker who lack realistic upside scenarios. Sanderson groups him with Chuba Hubbard as a preferred bench fill strategy over speculative youth.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Chuba Hubbard as a boring veteran alternative to young unproven dynasty assets in startup bench construction. Hubbard is the type of older player that contending teams might trade for mid-season (e.g., for a future second), making him more valuable than young WRs like Jalen Coker who lack realistic upside scenarios. Sanderson groups him with Cortland Sutton as a preferred bench fill strategy over speculative youth.

Jakob Sanderson cites Drake London as a historical comparison for players with elite long-term talent but near-term production uncertainty; London exemplifies the productive struggle asset category where dynasty ADP prices in future value despite current-year production concerns.

Jakob Sanderson cites Garrett Wilson as a historical comparison for players with elite long-term talent but near-term production uncertainty; Wilson exemplifies the productive struggle asset category where dynasty ADP prices in future value despite current-year production concerns.

Jakob Sanderson identifies Matthew Golden as an example of a year 2-3 wide receiver without encouraging per-route data to avoid in dynasty startup bench construction; Golden falls into the roster clogger category of young players who seem enticing but lack a realistic upside scenario and should be passed over for boring veterans or rookies.

Jakob Sanderson uses Tee Higgins (referenced as Tedaroa McMillan in the transcript) as an example of a player with strong peripheral indicators but unclear near-term production timeline; fits the productive struggle/tanking asset profile where long-term talent is evident but actual fantasy points may not materialize in year one due to environment/role uncertainty.

Jakob Sanderson cites Tedaroa McMillan as an example of a player with strong peripheral indicators but unclear near-term production timeline; McMillan fits the productive struggle/tanking asset profile where long-term talent is evident but actual fantasy points may not materialize in year one due to environment/role uncertainty. McMillan is the established alpha wide receiver on his offense ahead of Jalen Coker.

Jakob Sanderson highlights Nabers as a prime example of a productive struggle/tanking asset for dynasty startups; despite likely starting slow and potentially missing week one due to injury/production concerns, Sanderson recommends drafting him in the middle of round two as a significant discount on elite talent for teams pursuing a year-one tank strategy.

Jakob Sanderson names Jalen Naylor as a young WR under 25-26 years old to avoid in dynasty startup bench construction; grouped with Coker as a roster clogger trap despite offseason buzz, Naylor lacks the per-route data or clear path to meaningful fantasy production that would justify roster space on a non-contending team.

Jakob Sanderson explicitly identifies Jalen Coker as a roster clogger trap in dynasty startup drafts, particularly for non-contending teams filling bench spots in rounds 8+. Despite acknowledging Coker as a fun player, Sanderson argues he lacks a realistic fantasy upside scenario because he plays on a rough offense and is clearly behind established alpha Tedaroa McMillan; the difficulty in creating a WR2-or-better outcome makes him a poor bench asset compared to boring veterans who contenders might trade for mid-season.

Jakob Sanderson notes that Rhamondre Stevenson continuously gets pushed down and farther down on dynasty boards, but ends up being a value for those who can see it; Stevenson exemplifies a player where there is a realistic path to value if you can navigate the narrative street required to get him to where you need him to be.

Jakob Sanderson cites Jahan Dotson as a cautionary example of a year-three wide receiver who received significant roster value in dynasty startups but whose theoretical upside slowly dissolved into nothing; Dotson exemplifies the trap of investing in young players without realistic value paths.

Jakob Sanderson cites Rashad Bateman as a cautionary example of a year-three wide receiver who received significant roster value in dynasty startups but whose theoretical upside slowly dissolved into nothing; Bateman exemplifies the trap of investing in young players without realistic value paths.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Chuba Hubbard as a boring but valuable alternative to young unproven running backs in dynasty startup bench construction; Hubbard is the type of established player that a contending team might trade a future second for later in the season, making him a more tradeable asset than young players without clear upside paths.

Jakob Sanderson recommends Cortland Sutton as a boring but valuable alternative to young unproven wide receivers in dynasty startup bench construction; Sutton is the type of established player that a contending team might trade a future second for later in the season, making him a more tradeable asset than young players without clear upside paths.

Jakob Sanderson includes Matthew Golden in a group of year-two and year-three wide receivers who lack encouraging per-route data and should be avoided in dynasty startup bench construction; these players appear enticing as young dynasty assets but lack a realistic value upside scenario.

Jakob Sanderson identifies Tedaroa McMillan as an established alpha wide receiver, using him as the reason why Jalen Coker (who is behind McMillan on the same offense) is a poor dynasty bench asset; McMillan's established role and alpha status make him the clear target on his offense.

Jakob Sanderson groups Jalen Naylor with year-two and year-three wide receivers who lack encouraging per-route data and should be avoided in dynasty startup bench construction; these players are enticing because they're young but lack a realistic value upside scenario, making them roster cloggers that should be skipped in favor of more established players or pure rookies.

Jakob Sanderson warns against drafting Jalen Coker in dynasty startup bench spots despite acknowledging he is a fun player; Coker is on a rough offense and is clearly behind established alpha Tedaroa McMillan, making it very hard to create a realistic fantasy upside scenario where he becomes a wide receiver two or better; Sanderson explicitly states Coker is not a good bet for gaining future value on a tanking dynasty team's bench.

Jakob Sanderson references McCaffrey as an aging asset in dynasty startup strategy, suggesting that younger players should be acquired to provide value after McCaffrey's window of contention closes; this is part of a broader discussion about roster construction and managing the lifespan of elite players in dynasty leagues.

Thomas Tipple references Nico Collins as an example of a player whose scoring potential is so high that drafting him immediately shifts a startup draft's dynamics and team-building path toward contention; Collins is positioned as a player whose point-scoring ceiling forces strategic recalibration.

Jakob Sanderson cites Drake London as a historical example of a productive struggle asset in dynasty; London was priced up due to long-term talent indicators but did not immediately convert peripherals into fantasy points, making him a valuable acquisition for tanking teams willing to wait for future production.

Jakob Sanderson cites Garrett Wilson as a historical example of a productive struggle asset in dynasty; Wilson was priced up due to long-term talent indicators but did not immediately convert peripherals into fantasy points, making him a valuable acquisition for tanking teams willing to wait for future production.

Jakob Sanderson references Tee Higgins (referred to as 'Tedaroa McMillan' in transcript, likely a transcription error for a similar player discussion) as an example of a productive struggle asset where peripherals are strong but the timeline for converting those into fantasy points is unclear due to environment concerns; positioned as a longer-term value play for tanking teams despite near-term production uncertainty.

Jakob Sanderson identifies Ashton Jeanty as a tier-defining early running back in dynasty startup drafts; drafting early running backs outside of Jeanty, B.J. Robinson, and Jameer Gibbs in the first five or six rounds signals a year-one contending strategy, positioning Jeanty as a premium contending asset.

AJ Brown is joining Sam Darnold's offense, providing a significant upgrade to the quarterback's receiving weapons.

Drake Maye finished fourth in yards per attempt on passes with 20+ air yards at 15.6, and led the league overall in yards per attempt for the season at 8.9.

Darnold led the league with 18.5 yards per attempt on passes with 20+ air yards, demonstrating elite deep ball efficiency.

Darnold is projected to be separated by only two points from another top quarterback for the full season, indicating strong projected performance.

Jordan Love is mentioned as part of a deep pool of approximately 17-18 good fantasy football quarterbacks available this year.

Lamar Jackson went at 5.9 (second pick in the fifth round), which the analyst believes doesn't make sense from a draft strategy perspective, as elite quarterbacks shouldn't be prioritized early when there are 17-18 good fantasy football quarterbacks available.

Kyler Murray is mentioned as one of several viable quarterback options available in the draft, part of a deep pool of approximately 17-18 good fantasy football quarterbacks this year.

Patrick Mahomes is mentioned as one of several viable quarterback options available in the draft, part of a deep pool of approximately 17-18 good fantasy football quarterbacks this year.

Brock Purdy is mentioned as one of several viable quarterback options available in the draft, part of a deep pool of approximately 17-18 good fantasy football quarterbacks this year.

Dak Prescott is mentioned as one of several viable quarterback options available in the draft, part of a deep pool of approximately 17-18 good fantasy football quarterbacks this year.

Bo Nix is mentioned as one of several viable quarterback options available in the draft, part of a deep pool of approximately 17-18 good fantasy football quarterbacks this year.

The analyst is more of a believer in Jalen Hurts than the market, suggesting upside in his fantasy performance.

Metcalf is not a breakout bet but rather a bet that Aaron Rodgers plays better than last season; even so, 12.5 fantasy points per game as a wide receiver three is respectable.

Pearsall is an insanely productive player when healthy, ranking fourth in the NFL in receiving yards before injury last year with 1.97 and 1.94 yards per route run, making him a breakout bet despite a history of injuries throughout his career.

Reed could become a full-time player for the first time in his career with an 85% route share opportunity, as Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs are gone and the Packers have committed to playing the same five guys in 11 personnel. Despite historically low snap shares (38-79%), Reed has been very efficient on limited samples.

Higgins is explicitly mentioned as a player the analyst would not take over Brock Bowers in the second round.

Olave is explicitly mentioned as a player the analyst would not take over Brock Bowers in the second round.

Pickens is explicitly mentioned as a player the analyst would not take over Brock Bowers in the second round.

Brown is paired with Justin Jefferson as a second-round option the analyst considers reasonable.

Jefferson is mentioned as part of a competitive second-round pairing (with Chase Brown) that the analyst considers reasonable but not his preferred approach.

Chase is noted as the number one wide receiver in fantasy football for the most recent two seasons, but the analyst prefers starting with a running back from the 1.2 slot rather than Chase.

Taylor is mentioned as a potential first-round pick the analyst might not prioritize in best ball formats, though he values running backs from the left side of the board in redraft.

McCaffrey is mentioned as a potential first-round pick the analyst might not prioritize in best ball formats, though he values running backs from the left side of the board in redraft.

Goff is selected as the team's quarterback in the tenth round; the analyst notes he has finished as a top-10 scoring quarterback five times in his career.

Pearsall is added in the ninth round as part of the analyst's strategy to build depth at wide receiver with multiple startable options.

Reed is ranked ahead of Parker Washington by the analyst and selected as a startable wide receiver option in the draft.

The analyst explicitly states he is not a Parker Washington guy and prefers other options like Jayden Reed in this draft range.

Addison is mentioned as an available wide receiver option in the sixth round range.

Metcalf is added to the team as a startable wide receiver option that can be mixed and matched with the analyst's other receivers depending on weekly projections.

Hardman is selected as the wide receiver two in the sixth round, representing good value in the analyst's strategy of building depth at the position.

Evans is mentioned as a wide receiver option the analyst passed on in favor of taking another running back in the fifth round.

McLaurin is mentioned as a wide receiver option the analyst passed on in favor of taking another running back in the fifth round.

Montgomery is described as volume-dependent and selected in the fifth round as part of a running back-heavy strategy.

The analyst believes Bowers will be the story of the fantasy football season and is a better pick than elite wide receivers like George Pickens, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, or Tee Higgins in round two.

Robinson is expected to be the likely pick at 1.2 in most leagues, though the analyst received Gibbs instead in this mock draft.

Gibbs is positioned as a top-tier running back option at the 1.2 pick, with the analyst noting he's likely to be a league-winning selection in the early rounds.

If Pat Mahomes relies more heavily on Kenneth Walker to run the ball following his knee injury recovery, Walker could emerge as a workhorse with significant upside.

The Chiefs plan to use Fields more at quarterback in a dual-QB system with Mahomes, which could limit Walker's usage and touches.

The Kansas City Chiefs have a poor track record with running backs—the last Chiefs RB to finish in the top 12 was Kareem Hunt in 2018, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire busted despite being a first-round pick.

Kenneth Walker has shown a share of nagging injuries, which is a concern for his durability.

Walker had over 1,000 yards last year and performed well in the Super Bowl, showing he's a fully capable workhorse running back.

Kenneth Walker is ranked RB 14 overall (25th overall) with 2nd-3rd round ADP, representing decent value as a capable workhorse running back in a good situation.

The Bills spread the ball around to multiple receivers like Khalil Shakir, making it unclear if DJ Moore will be the primary target despite joining Josh Allen's offense.

The analyst has significant question marks about DJ Moore's consistency and doesn't trust him, noting he had a mediocre 682 yards and 6 touchdowns last year in his ninth season.

DJ Moore is ranked WR 28 overall (62nd overall) and represents a bargain in the 4th-5th round with potential to be a league winner if Josh Allen targets him as his alpha receiver.

The analyst is personally fading Evans because he doesn't like older players going to new teams, despite acknowledging the value.

Evans is on a crowded 49ers offense with multiple receiving options including Tongs, Kittle, Pearsall, and McCaffrey, limiting his target share potential.

Evans is ranked WR 26 overall (54th overall) and represents good value despite being 13 seasons in. He had 11 straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons and is hearing positive news from training camp.

Kimes is not worried about Javante Williams as the Cowboys' running back; he benefits from split safety looks created by their elite receivers and light boxes, had a high success rate, and Next Gen Stats ranks him top 10 in rushing yards over expected per carry, indicating he maximizes available blocking.

Kimes expresses uncertainty about Brandon Ayuk's situation with the Commanders, noting she doesn't know if he will play football for them or what he will look like; if he is even close to his prime form that earned him his contract, the Commanders offense with him, McLaurin, and Williams should be spread and shredded.

Mina Kimes notes that Tyler Booker showed some flashes but is still a little bit heavy-footed; however, the way he can move people on double teams and combos is pretty gnarly, suggesting upside.

Mina Kimes notes that Jaden Daniels felt less accurate last year even when clean and with time, with some of the touch that made his rookie season magical appearing to fade; she hopes this was injury-related rather than a mechanical decline. However, Kimes also emphasizes that Daniels is really good operating pre-snap with quick ball release and accuracy in a set-it-and-forget-it style (similar to Peyton Manning and Joe Burrow), and questions whether he wants or is good at operating with more motion and no-huddle elements.

Paul really came on for the Commanders last year and is a solid fourth or fifth best starter on the offensive line; if he's your fourth or fifth best starter, you're in a pretty good spot. He showed improvement and is part of the Commanders' offensive line that can support the new system.

Allen was drafted by the Commanders and is part of the running back rotation alongside Rashad White and Bill Cross-Gabera.

Bates is a very good blocking tight end in the Commanders' offense, which fits perfectly with the new under-center, outside-zone system that emphasizes multiple tight ends and blocking ability. His skill set aligns well with the Ben Johnson scheme.

Daniels is back with the Commanders under a new offensive system under David Lau that will transition from no-huddle, gun-heavy option runs to more under-center, outside-zone looks with multiple tight ends—a dramatic shift that resembles the Lions' approach. This system change should reduce his scrambling and design run workload. Last year Daniels scrambled 16% of the time, the highest rate by a significant margin and higher than his rookie year; while some of that was due to lack of pass catchers, he should scramble less going forward under the new Ben Johnson scheme.

Williams was drafted by the Commanders from Clemson as a slot receiver, adding depth to the wide receiver room. However, Mina Kimes likes him but feels he is slot-only right now, which may be limiting in the Commanders' offensive scheme, especially as they move toward a more under-center, less spread approach that emphasizes blocking and multiple tight ends.

Tracy is listed behind Escabar in the Giants' running back depth chart, with Singletary also in the mix; the backfield situation creates uncertainty around the primary ball-carrier role.

Malik Nabers suffered a Week 5 injury last season and underwent a concerning cleanup surgery in spring; he is currently in the recovery phase with uncertainty around his availability. Despite being the Giants' ticket to explosive plays—the only player who can command a game with 170+ yards and two touchdowns in a single outing—his injury status makes him a pivotal concern for the entire offseason.

DeVonta Smith's precision route-running and zone-beating ability make him a cornerstone of the Eagles' new offensive scheme; he is expected to benefit from the redesigned offense that creates yards-after-catch opportunities and middle-of-the-field throws.

Eli Stowers, drafted by the Eagles, is a zone-beating tight end with nice college reps in that regard; he fits the team's strategy to address their zone coverage weakness and provides a middle-of-the-field option in the new offensive scheme.

Johnny Munt is a sneaky signing who addresses a critical Eagles offensive weakness from last year: tight end blocking ability. The Eagles' tight ends, particularly Grant Calcaterra, struggled with blocking, and Munt's blocking ability is essential for the new Shanahan-style offense to function properly.

Saquon Barkley has been underutilized in yards-after-catch situations in the Eagles offense; the new Sean Mannion scheme is specifically designed to get easy options set up for yards after the catch, which should benefit Barkley's skill set and create more explosive opportunities for him.

Jalen Hurts' fit in the new Sean Mannion Shanahan-style offense is the central question for the Eagles; while Hurts is accurate and generally protects the ball, his weakness is throwing over the middle of the field with anticipation, which is critical to the new scheme. The offense is built to suit his strengths (RPOs, quick game, pre-snap reads) if Mannion can modify it appropriately. Hurts' success depends on buying into the system and trusting receivers in the middle of the field quickly with anticipation—not his greatest strength—but there is optimism given the Green Bay blueprint and Mannion's track record.

Makai Lemon, drafted in the first round by the Eagles, is a zone-beating specialist and naturally finds spaces in zone coverage; he fits the Eagles' new Sean Mannion Shanahan-style offensive scheme designed to address their weakness against zone defenses from last year.

Tight end breakout candidate finally positioned for elite production. Likely moved from Baltimore to Giants with head coach John Harbaugh, who acquired him specifically because he believes Likely has one of the highest ceilings at TE. Harbaugh was talking about Likely as all-pro type talent before his 2025 season-ending knee injury. No Mark Andrews blocking opportunities anymore—Likely is expected to be #1 receiver for Giants until Malik Nabors proves healthy (currently rehabbing knee injury). Every time Andrews missed time in past, Likely put up top-5 fantasy TE numbers: 11 PPG equivalent to TE5 in PPG last year. Volume and opportunities are the key for TE breakouts, and Likely will see both. Tara Roberts calls him the late-round TE you need because he's going to break out in 2026.

Sophomore WR breakout candidate poised for year-two emergence. Egbuka was top-10 fantasy WR through week 11 last season before Buccaneers unraveled; offensive line injuries, Baker Mayfield playing through injuries, and Egbuka's own hamstring injury (no missed time) derailed second-half production (outside top 60 WR in PPG after week 11). Despite struggles, he posted 126 total targets as a rookie—top 10 overall among WR. No Mike Evans in offense anymore; coaching staff expects someone to step up as target hog. New OC Zach Robinson is comparing Egbuka's role to Cooper Cup, operating from Z spot in passing attack. If Egbuka recaptures healthy version from start of season when he was top-10, he's poised for breakout. Vacated targets especially valuable given Mike Evans' touchdown share.

Breakout candidate moving to Mike McDaniel offense as primary deep threat with consensus WR43 ranking. Tara Roberts notes Johnston was overlooked after teasing breakout potential early last season (top WR through first four games with touchdowns and volume), then derailed by Chargers injuries. Now with healthier offensive line and McDaniel's scheme pushing more volume, Roberts compares him to Michael Pittman 2025—a guy everyone overlooks but massively outperforms. Johnston has the most secure role in the offense as the deep threat and is expected to benefit directly from Chargers' offensive improvements.

JJ Zachariason's episode title frames Jonathan Taylor as a fade candidate in best ball formats, suggesting downside risk or reduced upside relative to draft capital expectations.

JJ Zachariason uses Kyler Murray as a historical example of late-round QB success and contrasts his elite supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juwan Jennings) against Malik Willis's inferior receiver group (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Kevin Coleman Jr.), noting Murray gets drafted a few rounds later due to this cast advantage.

JJ Zachariason targets Lamar Jackson in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Joe Burrow and Jaden Daniels.

JJ Zachariason targets Joe Burrow in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels.

JJ Zachariason targets Jaden Daniels in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

JJ Zachariason is drafting Josh Allen in the third round as part of his QB strategy in a different quarterback pool environment than the prior year.

JJ Zachariason identifies Malik Willis as a primary late-round QB sleeper with high odds of finishing the season as QB1. Willis's offensive scheme emphasizes mobility—"attack every single blade of grass"—which contrasts favorably against Quinn Ewers's point-and-shoot approach. Zachariason notes rushing injury risk but expects high-end fantasy moments and compares Willis to the 2017–2018 late-round rushing QB archetype (Colin Kaepernick era) that fantasy has since priced out. Willis's receiver group (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Kevin Coleman Jr.) is inferior to elite supporting casts like Kyler Murray's (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juwan Jennings), which is why Murray gets drafted a few rounds later. Zachariason recommends Willis as a bench stash even in 10–12 team leagues given small-sample upside.

Scott Pianowski expresses skepticism about whether the Chiefs can bounce back to their dominant form, noting that the team has been a mediocre middle-of-the-pack offense for two straight years and the idea that Mahomes will just be the dominant player in the NFL is uncertain; he wants to see it before believing it.

Scott Pianowski believes Rasheed Rice, currently WR12, has not come down nearly enough in ADP despite multiple red flags: he failed a drug test and will serve jail time, had a recent cleanup procedure, we don't know how healthy he'll be on opening day, he's had trouble staying healthy the last few years, and the Chiefs offense has been mediocre middle-of-the-pack for two straight years. Pianowski sees Rice's floor as wrecking your season as a third-round pick with no real floor, only upside.

Matt Harmon believes Isaiah Likely, currently TE11 at 108th overall ADP, should be ranked a few spots higher. With Malik Neighbors potentially starting the year on PUP and the Giants' ambiguous wide receiver room, Likely is positioned to lead the team in targets, similar to how Tucker Craft was positioned last year before injury.

Matt Harmon notes that while Drake May got A.J. Brown and Dobbs as great additions, making the offense much better in pieces around him, his fade is purely market-based, not skill-based or scheme-based. The market is pricing him too high relative to similar production available at more affordable prices later.

Matt Harmon is intrigued by Johnston at his very late ADP, noting that his rookie year struggles are still held against him when he's improved beyond that. Harmon believes Johnston's improved play is undervalued in the market.

Scott Pianowski believes Herbert has MVP upside if things fall right with the Chargers' improved offensive line, new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, and fresh playbook. Currently consensus QB9, Pianowski sees him as a strong arbitrage play—you can get Herbert four or five rounds later than early-round QBs like Drake May and still get comparable or better production.

Miles Garrett is positioned as the second-best athlete ever traded in his prime, behind only Wayne Gretzky. The source covered the Miles Garrett trade a month after it happened and wondered if he was like the best athlete ever traded, establishing him as a top-tier trade comparison point in sports history.

Joe Burrow is the subject of an upcoming hot quarterback ranking segment launching after the 4th of July, running twice weekly. The source notes that multiple lesbians have reached out expressing why they love Joe Burrow, indicating he is a notable quarterback in the upcoming fantasy rankings discussion.

Pierce underwent ankle surgery in March after signing a $30 million per year deal with the Colts. Pierce stated the recovery timeline is four to six months, which puts return in the late July to September range. The source notes this is particularly concerning because Pierce is a top-end speed and athleticism player, and ankle injuries can significantly impact his explosiveness and acceleration. The Colts attempted platelet-rich plasma treatment in January before the surgery, suggesting the injury has been lingering. Combined with pre-existing questions about his production—he has never had more than 47 catches in a season—his draft value will be significantly affected by this injury timeline and recovery uncertainty.

Johnson, the former Titans running back with the most yards from scrimmage in a single season, was diagnosed with ALS at age 39 and is now 40 years old; he has four children and his mind remains sharp despite his body no longer cooperating.

McCreary signed a minimum deal with the Lions worth $1 million per year, which the source says speaks to what the league thinks of him as a cornerback depth option.

Reed was signed by the Lions in free agency as part of their cornerback depth chart, which is the weakest position group on the team as they compete in the highly competitive NFC North.

The source is passing on Adonai Mitchell at his current ADP, suggesting the market price is too high relative to his fantasy value; the episode frames this as a deliberate fade decision rather than a recommendation to draft him.

Rams tight end with contract expiring after current year; dealing with prior injury that raises questions about snap share recovery and role in tight end room going forward.

Year 2 tight end with Dynasty Data Lab startup ADP of TE26, Dynasty League Football TE27, and Keep Trade Cut TE21; as a rookie used as deep threat out of heavy personnel packages with 18.6 ADOT and led all tight ends with 14 deep targets; the source believes this usage pattern suggests significant untapped potential: 'it makes you think like, okay, what else could he be doing in the NFL?' Positioned ahead of market valuations due to ceiling outcome potential at current price point.

Rams drafted Max Clare in the second round as additional tight end to the room, creating competition and reducing opportunity for Terrence Ferguson; part of Rams' strategy of taking multiple shots at tight end position.

Year 2 tight end ranked ahead of Rondé Gadsden in dynasty rankings; the source states 'I have Kincaid ahead' in direct comparison, though only one spot ahead of Gadsden in the rankings.

Rams tight end with contract expiring after current year; showed barbell-style week-to-week finishes in 2024: TE11 (week 11), TE5 (week 12), TE11 (week 14), TE5 (week 15), TE12 (week 17), top-4 finish (week 18); the source questions whether Rams will re-sign him on one-year deal or move on to younger tight ends Ferguson and Clare, creating uncertainty around his role.

The source expresses no interest in rostering Zach Charbonnet for 2025, citing his torn ACL recovery timeline and the addition of first-round running back Jadarian Price. Charbonnet will not return until Thanksgiving at earliest and will not be rushed back given he is a free agent after 2025 and will want to preserve earning potential. With Price as the clear lead back once healthy and Emmanuel Wilson also in the mix, Charbonnet's goal-line role is at risk. Interest in Charbonnet is contingent on having multiple IR and bench spots; fewer spots means less interest.

The source identifies Jadarian Price as the clear lead back for the Seahawks despite talk of a three-headed backfield with Charbonnet and Emmanuel Wilson. Price is described as way better than Charbonnet or Wilson and will be the primary back once the season progresses, making him the preferred Seahawks running back investment.

The Seahawks signed Emmanuel Wilson to share running back duties, but the source expects Jadarian Price to be the primary back once the season progresses, limiting Wilson's role and making him a secondary option in the backfield.

The source expresses preference for taking a flyer on George Kittle over Jake Ferguson in the late-round tight end tier, suggesting Kittle offers better upside as a late-round option.

The source recommends Mark Andrews as a better tight end draft pick than Jake Ferguson, noting Andrews is lower in ECR than Ferguson and represents better value at the position.

The source recommends Isaiah Likely as a better tight end draft pick than Jake Ferguson, noting Likely is lower in ECR than Ferguson and represents better value at the position.

The source recommends Dallas Goddert as a better tight end draft pick than Jake Ferguson, noting Goddert is lower in ECR than Ferguson and represents better value at the position.

Ferguson's ECR of tight end 12 (116th overall) is way too high given the presence of healthy CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb and Pickens combined for 250 targets and 168 catches last season (with Lamb missing three games). Ferguson had eight touchdowns, four of which came in the three games Lamb missed, and four in the other 14 games. He averaged 7.3 yards per catch (a career low) and finished tight end 8 in half-point PPR but tight end 13 in points per game among tight ends with 5+ games played. The source prefers Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Dallas Goddert as better draft picks at lower ECR, and would take a flyer on George Kittle over Ferguson.

McBride's ADP has improved from early offseason consensus as an early second-round pick to mid-to-late second round, which is more reasonable. He will still catch a lot of balls but not the 120-plus receptions from last year. The source expects him to remain a solid investment but acknowledges volume will decline due to the Cardinals' shift toward a run-heavy offense with new backfield additions.

The source describes Marvin Harrison as a perennial letdown, suggesting continued disappointment in 2025 despite the Cardinals' offensive changes. This characterization implies skepticism about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy value in a crowded receiving corps with reduced passing volume.

Wilson had a fantastic run last year but the source warns against reinvesting at current price. New offensive system with new coach, quarterback holding out (Jacoby Brissett), and Cardinals additions (Jeremiah Love, Algier) to the backfield complicate the outlook. The Cardinals unlikely to pass 600+ times again like last year; Wilson is a journeyman who hasn't done anything close to last year's production before, making it difficult to justify reinvestment. The source ranks Wilson at 48 overall, below his ECR of 38 and projection rank of 44, arguing he is overvalued. With new offensive play caller, volume is expected to decrease for all pass catchers; Kendrick Bourne was added as a superior third wide receiver option. The source prefers Wilson as a wide receiver four, not three, due to too many mouths to feed in a reduced passing volume environment.

Harvey is a landmine at 87th overall ADP despite 12 rookie TDs; after J.K. Dobbins' injury last year, Harvey averaged only 3.3 yards per carry behind a good Broncos OL and was flat-out bad as a runner. The Broncos drafted Jonah Coleman in the 4th round as a significant investment; Dobbins gets most early-down and goal-line carries; Coleman is a capable pass catcher and good pass blocker, so Harvey may not get all passing-down work either. Sean Payton historically runs committee backfields (Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, Pierre Thomas). If Dobbins stays healthy, Harvey won't give enough touches to return profit on an 87th overall pick.

Coleman was drafted by the Broncos in the 4th round as a significant investment; he is a capable pass catcher and really good pass blocker. The source prefers Coleman as the cheapest option in the Denver backfield (50-something RB off board) and would stash him if patient with bench depth, believing he'll get some play due to injuries or investment justification. Coleman is the play if forced to pick from the Denver backfield.

Dobbins is back and figures to get most early-down carries and goal-line carries as long as he's available; if he stays healthy all season, RJ Harvey won't get enough touches to be fantasy-relevant.

Warren would lose target share if the Colts sign Keenan Allen; Allen remains a capable receiver despite his age, posing a direct threat to Warren's role in the Colts offense.

Rumblings suggest Colts may sign Allen, which would hurt multiple receivers including Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren; Allen showed last year he could still play, making him a legitimate threat to target share in Indianapolis if signed.

Downs faces significant target-share risk if the Colts sign Keenan Allen; Allen showed last year he could still play, making him a legitimate threat to Downs' opportunities in Indianapolis. The source notes this would hurt Downs alongside other Colts receivers.

Colts traded Pittman away and signed Alec Pierce to extension instead, choosing Pierce as the #1 receiver going forward.

Pierce is a landmine due to multiple concerns: Colts traded Michael Pittman and signed Pierce to extension instead, but uncertainty remains about whether Keenan Allen will be signed (which would hurt Pierce's target share); Pierce had ankle procedure in April with three-month recovery, unclear if he'll be back for camp; Daniel Jones' status unknown; Pierce had 47 receptions last year and is being overrated as a #1 receiver when he could easily not be one in receptions (could be Tyler Warren or Josh Downs); the source calls this death by a thousand cuts. However, Pierce improved significantly over last two seasons and succeeded with both Daniel Jones and Philip Rivers, showing it wasn't just a one-QB situation; the source trusts Shane Steichen as play caller and believes Pierce could run more complete route tree, potentially becoming knockoff version of Jordy Nelson; optimistic about his price and potential.

The source is concerned DJ Moore is being drafted for what he used to be rather than what he is now; hasn't had a 1,000-yard season since 2023 and averaged 1.44 and 1.24 yards per route run the last two seasons—objectively terrible numbers; even in best seasons, Moore has not been prolific TD scorer with 41 TDs in 131 career games (5.1 per season average); Josh Allen hasn't hit 30 TD passes in last three seasons, limiting upside despite move from Chicago. However, Bogman is in on Moore at current price as a WR3 with potential to be WR1, noting that even if he fails, the cost is low; Moore is currently WR28 and cheap enough to take a flyer on; he's the clear #1 option in Buffalo with less competition than in Chicago (Shakir, Keon Coleman, rookie Skylar Bell are not as strong as Odunze, Colson Loveland, Luther Burden); expects clarity on his value by October 1st.

Kyron Williams is sandwiched between Jeremiah Love and Breece Hall in ECR and is described as a divisive player; the source would take Williams over both Love and Hall easily, with another panelist also ranking Williams above both.

The source prefers Jacobs over Breece Hall and notes Jacobs has lower ADP in ECR at the moment, making him a better value proposition compared to Hall despite Hall's talent.

The source prefers Love over Breece Hall without question; Love is sandwiched between Hall and Kyron Williams in ECR; faces similar criticism as Hall (expensive contract, non-playoff team) but the source argues teams must justify early draft investment by using him heavily. Love was added to the Cardinals backfield, which reduces passing volume and target opportunities for receivers.

Jets coach Aaron Glenn stated the team will employ a three-man backfield with Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis kicking in; the source prefers Jeremiah Love and Josh Jacobs over Hall despite Hall's talent, noting Jacobs has lower ADP/ECR; Hall's expensive contract and the team's non-playoff trajectory raise questions about workload preservation. However, another panelist (Bogman) ranks Hall at RB13 in a tier from 11-19, seeing upside as a potential RB1 if he scores touchdowns; believes Hall is significantly better than backup options and will be hard to take off field despite Glenn's three-man backfield comments; projects Hall to push toward 300 touches again, though he's never reached that mark.

KEEP/TRADE/CUT: Zay Flowers Jaylen Waddle Ladd McConkey

KEEP/TRADE/CUT: Zay Flowers Jaylen Waddle Ladd McConkey

KEEP/TRADE/CUT: Zay Flowers Jaylen Waddle Ladd McConkey

Kyle Pitts was prepared to play under the tag this season, but believes his best ball is "100 percent" in the future after signing a 3-year, $54M deal: "I think there's a lot more out there, a lot more to get, and a lot more things to keep grinding towards." 🔥 (via @​ajc)

Who remembers 2019 Kenyan Drake going NUCLEAR in the fantasy playoffs? Weeks 15 & 16 💥 22 ATT | 137 YDS | 4 TD ➜ 39.6 FPTS 💥 24 ATT | 166 YDS | 2 TD ➜ 33.4 FPTS Who had him? 🙋‍♂️

Average Jordan Love rep btw [Retweeted](

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 #ReceptionPerception Profile 🔥 Some highlights: - 77.8% success rate vs. man coverage (94th percentile) - 82.5% success rate vs. zone - 80% success rate vs. press RP helps show that JSN was pretty convincingly among the best, if not the premier, route runner in the NFL last season. In the profile, I highlight a specific area where he was special. His 2025 campaign compares favorably to several truly elite players in the charting history, which makes you feel good abou...