NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Tuesday, June 30, 2026

“Concepcion was the higher draft pick, Boston was the one who may have stolen the show in the offseason. [Boston] hit the ground running, showing that he was more than just a big-bodied target in the red zone” Check out more on Boston with Chris⤵️ <https://youtu.be/hmhefbdwhyU>

Got Burrow 7 picks past ADP stacked with Chase-Higgins but we still got 12 rounds to go

Got Burrow 7 picks past ADP stacked with Chase-Higgins but we still got 12 rounds to go

Got Burrow 7 picks past ADP stacked with Chase-Higgins but we still got 12 rounds to go

“Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton Jr. are both looking to grow in their sophomore campaigns. Despite earning prominent roles in the offense last training camp, rookie pains and team challenges arose. Bech seemed to be more comfortable within the offense late in the season…”

“Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton Jr. are both looking to grow in their sophomore campaigns. Despite earning prominent roles in the offense last training camp, rookie pains and team challenges arose. Bech seemed to be more comfortable within the offense late in the season…”

Cardinals WR Michael Wilson says extension talks are "going great," per @​joshweinfuss "I absolutely love the state of Arizona. It'd be really cool to be a centerpiece that can help play a massive role in ascending the Cardinals to playoff wins, to a Super Bowl championship."

Travis Kelce needs just 45 receiving yards to climb to 2nd ALL TIME on the TE Receiving list. Tony Gonzalez - 15,127 Jason Witten - 13,046 Travis Kelce - 13,002 Can he catch Tony Gonzalez? 🤔

Parole violation mentioned in comments; community asking about suspension status. One comment notes league has said he will not be suspended. Separate comment describes him as mid-WR1 (5–7 WR on 12-team league).

Trending toward 11-on-11 work at start of camp; expected to be ready for Week 1. Currently going ~20th QB off the board in mock drafts (round 8–10), described as screaming value at his price point. Community split: some bullish on value given his top-5 historical production (was QB2 week 15 last year despite missing games; top 5 by season average); others concerned about rushing production post-knee injury and prefer waiting on QB depth given how deep the position is in 2026. One comment notes NFL wouldn't put Broncos/Chiefs on opening MNF if he wasn't playing.

I'm almost done with Caleb Williams' charting for @​RecepPerception, and I gotta say... Luther Burden should have a monster season for the Bears [Retweeted](

I'm almost done with Caleb Williams' charting for @​RecepPerception, and I gotta say... Luther Burden should have a monster season for the Bears [Retweeted](

RB Javonte Williams is still "grinding" after signing a contract extension this summer: "It felt good, just knowing all my hard work paid off. But I've still got a lot more to prove. I at least want to go to the Pro Bowl and definitely want to get to a Super Bowl with the team." (via @​dallasnews)

Kyle Pitts was prepared to play under the tag this season, but believes his best ball is "100 percent" in the future after signing a 3-year, $54M deal: "I think there's a lot more out there, a lot more to get, and a lot more things to keep grinding towards." 🔥 (via @​ajc)

Kyle Pitts on what fantasy managers can expect from him this year: “I hope I can get as many points as I can for you.” (@​YahooFantasy)

Used a late-round flyer on Aaron Jones in a dynasty startup

"I will not draft Ladd McConkey over Tee Higgins, no matter what... that's a bridge too far" #Bengals #BestBall Tee Higgins or Ladd McConkey at the 3/4 turn... where do you stand? ➡️ <https://youtu.be/vMdE3xxd944?si=WF70etZhPeBsYXOS> @​RyanJ_Heath @​JakobSanderson

"I will not draft Ladd McConkey over Tee Higgins, no matter what... that's a bridge too far" #Bengals #BestBall Tee Higgins or Ladd McConkey at the 3/4 turn... where do you stand? ➡️ <https://youtu.be/vMdE3xxd944?si=WF70etZhPeBsYXOS> @​RyanJ_Heath @​JakobSanderson

Yards *after* contact per QB carry since 2022: 1. Baker Mayfield (3.8) 2. Jayden Daniels (3.7) 3. Malik Willis (3.7)

One’s gotta go - 2026 season: Ashton Jeanty Omarion Hampton Jeremiyah Love

One’s gotta go - 2026 season: Ashton Jeanty Omarion Hampton Jeremiyah Love

One’s gotta go - 2026 season: Ashton Jeanty Omarion Hampton Jeremiyah Love

Check out the full season analysis from @​MattHarmon_BYB and what contributed to the special season ⤵️ <https://receptionperception.com/jaxon-smith-njigba-2025-player-profile/> [Retweeted](

Nico Collins’ 17 game pace: 2025 - 1,265 yards + 7 TDs 2024 - 1,425 yards + 10 TDs 2023 - 1,469 yards + 9 TDs IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY… watch out 👀🔥

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 #ReceptionPerception Profile 🔥 Some highlights: - 77.8% success rate vs. man coverage (94th percentile) - 82.5% success rate vs. zone - 80% success rate vs. press RP helps show that JSN was pretty convincingly among the best, if not the premier, route runner in the NFL last season. In the profile, I highlight a specific area where he was special. His 2025 campaign compares favorably to several truly elite players in the charting history, which makes you feel good abou...

NEW best ball episode with @​JakobSanderson where we draft a Bully TE team! Also come to hear about our stress dreams and premonitions regarding James Conner and Wan’Dale Robinson <https://youtu.be/vMdE3xxd944?is=kDsnZB_4MS0CHxeV>

NEW best ball episode with @​JakobSanderson where we draft a Bully TE team! Also come to hear about our stress dreams and premonitions regarding James Conner and Wan’Dale Robinson <https://youtu.be/vMdE3xxd944?is=kDsnZB_4MS0CHxeV>

James Cook is currently the RB5 in fantasy drafts. Is that… TOO HIGH TOO LOW JUST RIGHT

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

I don’t think YPRR is overrated in terms of its relation to fantasy scoring at all, it’s similarly predictive of following year FP/G to something like target share for both TE and WR. And I mean it’s literally just taking player yards and controlling for volume, which can help identify instances like top performers who dealt w/ injury (‘23 Andrews, ‘24 Goedert, ‘25 Kittle), guys who saw their production bolstered by outlier route volume (‘23 Engram, ‘24 Njoku, ‘25 McBride?), or potential brea...

Rookie year redraft ADP for these two: + Saquon: 1.07 + Price: 6.02 Of course the NFL Draft 1.02 RB is going to be higher profile than the 1.32, but the two situations aren't even really comparable given cost

Redraft ADP for these guys + Saquon: 1.07 + Price: 6.02 Of course the NFL Draft 1.02 RB is going to be higher profile than the 1.32, but the two situations aren't even really comparable given cost

Out of 1.7k rookie WR seasons dating back to 2000, here's a list of players who accounted for a higher percentage of team receiving first downs than Tetairoa McMillan: Anquan Boldin Andre Johnson That's it. McMillan's rate (32.4%) tied rookie-season Puka Nacua.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan lands at No. 87 on the NFL Top 100 List! In his rookie season: 70 REC 1,014 Yards 7 Touchdowns

Josh Jacobs “is still under investigation by the Brown County District Attorney’s Office” No further updates on that, but noteworthy that nothing is closed there <https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7405972/2026/06/30/nfl-biggest-question-all-teams-2026/> [Retweeted](

Obviously not every round 1 RB is going to hit in a big way, but you’re playing an odds game. The round 1 draft capital for Jadarian Price, while competing with two UDFAs that are both guaranteed less than $600k in 2026 (Holani $0), makes him a very good bet to pull away workload wise in this SEA backfield. In a good offense and at such a cheap cost for a round 1 rookie RB, it’s much easier to ignore potential holes in his prospect profile and have him hit big -5 ADP on a ~65% workload.

And miss me with the comparisons to Rashaad Penny’s rookie year simply because he was also on the Seahawks. Different staff, different players, etc., just completely unserious dialogue. Draft capital is far and away the most predictive metric we have to determine volume (and ability for that matter). Singling out one-off/outlier examples like Penny or CEH (who would’ve been a decent pick at Price’s ADP btw) is completely missing the point. We have a round 1 RB here who is competing for touche...

Wasn’t the biggest fan of Jadarian Price as a prospect (especially to go Rd 1), but the investment is quite telling in itself. Holani (UDFA w/28 career touches) and Wilson (UDFA w/ $600k GTD) both have zero pedigree or investment. The “we’re going to get multiple guys involved” coach-speak comes around like clockwork each offseason for several backfields, and is generally meaningless. Sure, someone else will get touches alongside Price like in all backfields, but Price is the obvious favorite...

What does the addition of Pete Carmichael as OC do for James Cook? @​MattParrino breaks this all down and more as we discuss the Bills fantasy outlook for 2026 🌐<https://t.ly/9D3uW> 🎥<https://t.ly/afw_x> 🎧<https://t.ly/6cASZ>

“McGowan doesn't project to being a star in the NFL, but his skillset is ideal for being a backup, as he's an urgent, violent runner who picks things up quickly and projects to being able to handle pass pro and special teams duties…”

“If J.J. McCarthy can’t master the mental and mechanical aspects of the position as O’Connell needs him to, and there aren’t enough physical attributes to make up for any of that shortfall, this competition could be over before it begins.”

Harold Fannin Jr. broke out in 2024 at age 21, leading the Browns in catches, targets, and receiving yards while outproducing David Njoku. However, his draft market has cooled significantly post-NFL draft. The Browns drafted Casey Concepcion and Demond Robinson at tight end, adding competition; combined with Deshaun Watson–versus–Shedeur Sanders quarterback uncertainty, analysts are now questioning Fannin's 2025 outlook. He was initially drafted around tight-end four or five (alongside Tyler Warren) in best ball but has since fallen in market value.

Nabers is projected to miss 4–6 games to start the season and is listed on the PUP list in projections. His absence directly elevates Isaiah Likely to the Giants' number-one target role; even upon return, Nabers would ramp up gradually and Likely would remain the number-two target. If Nabers misses six games, Likely gets a very fast start.

Ray Garvin projects Isaiah Likely as a breakout candidate who finally has a tight-end room to himself after being boxed out by Mark Andrews in Baltimore and flashing in games Andrews missed. Now with John Harbaugh in New York, Likely is positioned as the number-one target for the Giants to start the season, assuming Malik Nabers misses 4–6 games. Harbaugh's stated goal for Likely was All-Pro status, and the supporting cast—Theo Johnson, Patrick Ricard, Malachi Fields—are lesser threats that will funnel targets through him. Even if Nabers returns, Likely is the best bet to be the number-two target on the team, giving him a very fast start if Nabers misses six games.

Ray Garvin identifies Ryan Flournoy as a breakout candidate whose snap share is expected to increase significantly in Dallas's 11-personnel, three-wide-receiver sets. Flournoy has earned his way onto the field in those sets and has contingent upside if CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, or Jake Ferguson miss time. Garvin emphasizes the environment: Dak Prescott averages 4,500 yards and 34 touchdowns per season when healthy (since 2019), throwing 600 times per season; Dallas lacks a target-heavy running back like Christian McCaffrey or Devon Achane, creating receiver opportunity. Garvin projects Flournoy could outkick his draft position in weeks where Lamb or Kitchens are banged up, and notes he provides touchdown upside in best ball formats.

Ray Garvin positions Adonai Mitchell as an under-the-radar year-three breakout candidate for the Jets despite increased target competition from newly drafted Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq. Mitchell showed very promising usage down the stretch in year two and is expected to line up as the wide receiver two opposite Garrett Wilson to start the year. Garvin was a big fan of Mitchell coming out of Texas and views him as capable of providing win rates in fantasy. Mitchell's second-round draft capital, incredible athleticism, and downfield ability under new coach Aaron Glenn (who knew him personally from high school) position him to fill a role Cooper Jr. cannot; the Jets passing attack had no player over 400 receiving yards last year, creating opportunity. Mitchell was in the building last year, giving him an edge over Cooper despite Cooper's YAC ability and toughness.

Ray Garvin projects Ricky Pearsall for 60 catches and 775 yards in year three, which he acknowledges fantasy managers would "absolutely hate." Garvin leans "probably not" on a year-three breakout given Pearsall's injury history and durability concerns, target competition from Mike Evans and George Kittle's return from injury, and the 49ers' pass-light Shanahan system. Pearsall is viewed as better in best ball with spike weeks rather than consistent production; the key question remains whether he can finally stay healthy on the field.

Ray Garvin trusts Mike Evans as a consistent play despite his age, citing high usage when on the field, red zone threat status, and fit with Shanahan's play-action and wide zone scheme. Evans' downfield ability and yards per completion efficiency ("one completion 20 yards down the field is worth a hell of a lot more than the one that's completed 5 yards down the field") make him a Hall of Fame caliber receiver still able to produce. Garvin expects Evans to lead the team in targets if healthy and get a "very very fast start" in the 49ers offense.

Ray Garvin notes that Trey McBride was a primary beneficiary of Arizona's historic pass funnel in 2023, where the Cardinals threw the ball at an alarming clip regardless of game script. However, Garvin expects the passing volume to decline in 2024 due to the addition of Tyler Allgeier and the draft of Jeremiah Love, which will reduce target opportunities across the receiving corps and limit McBride's ceiling.

Ray Garvin abandons elite expectations for Marvin Harrison Jr. in year three, stating 'the expectation of what we wanted him to be this elite top 15 receiver, hell no.' Garvin cites Arizona's shift away from historic pass volume (adding Tyler Allgeier, drafting Jeremiah Love) and crowded target competition (Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Jeremiah Love) as reasons for the downgrade. Best-case scenario is a flex-play complement to a roster, with hopes to trade him away.

Ray Garvin singles out Colston Loveland as his top breakout candidate in Arizona, expecting him to 'go absolutely nuts this year.' Despite target competition from Trey McBride and others, Loveland is positioned to emerge as a primary receiving option in the Cardinals' offense.

Ray Garvin expresses confidence in Rome Odunze as a year-three upside play in Chicago's offense under Ben Johnson, stating 'I like I like Burden a lot. I I love the upside play for Burden.' Odunze's talent is unquestionable, and his slot role should provide consistent opportunity, though target competition from Luther Burden, Cole Kmet, and Cole Loveland remains a concern.

Khalil Herbert is a quality backup running back in Chicago's backfield, creating a depth chart trap for fantasy players. Ray Garvin notes that Chicago has two good running backs, which means the team will run the ball frequently and Caleb Williams will take his share of rushing attempts, limiting passing volume for receivers.

Ray Garvin identifies Caleb Williams' sub-60% completion percentage as a critical limiting factor for Chicago's offensive upside; he needs to improve to 62–63% completion rate for the offense to reach its ceiling. Garvin emphasizes this is non-negotiable: 'Caleb's got sub-60% completion per like I don't care what like that ain't going to cut it.' Without this improvement, the volume gains from Ben Johnson's scheme and playmakers won't translate to fantasy production.

Ray Garvin is optimistic on Luther Burden as a year-two WR breakout candidate in Chicago's Ben Johnson offense, projecting him in the 113–125 target range. While Burden faces target competition from Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and Cole Loveland, his talent profile and the Ben Johnson system create a compelling upside case that warrants exposure, though Garvin ranks him lower than Egbuka and McMillan.

Ray Garvin projects Egbuka as a year-two WR breakout candidate positioned as Tampa Bay's number-one receiving option, expecting him to lead the team in targets and receptions, exceed 1,200 yards, and carry a 17-point per-game ceiling. Egbuka averaged 20 PPG in the first five weeks of last season, demonstrating target-magnet ability and first-round pedigree from Ohio State (program record for catches). The year-two WR class may be undervalued due to prior-year disappointments (McConkey, Thomas Jr., Nabers), creating a discount opportunity.

McMillan is positioned as the primary WR1 breakout candidate with alpha-level receiving role; Ray Garvin compares his usage profile to Drake London's rookie season. McMillan posted 70 catches, 1,000+ receiving yards, and 7 TDs last year and is projected to reach 140–150 targets, well within the wheelhouse for a top-tier receiving role.

Ray Garvin acknowledges liking Jalin Coker and notes there are 'Jalin Coker people out there,' with Coker projected pretty well. However, Garvin positions McMillan as the clear alpha WR1 with the 'it factor,' emphasizing McMillan is the focal point of the offense with Coker as a secondary option who won't threaten McMillan's target allocation.

Ray Garvin frames Bryce Young as the critical variable for Terrace McMillan's breakout success. This is a pivotal year for Young with a decision looming on his future; Young was fantastic in the playoff game against the Rams and now has a full offseason in the program. Garvin emphasizes McMillan's ceiling depends on Young delivering a career year and willingness to design plays around and force the ball to McMillan, positioning Young's success as McMillan's best chance at reaching low-end WR1 numbers.

Ray Garvin addresses Terrace Marshall Jr. in the context of Carolina's WR room, noting the Kocur deal was merely to 'grease him up' and doesn't change the offensive allocation. Marshall is positioned as secondary to Terrace McMillan, who is the unquestioned alpha WR1 in the offense with 150+ target opportunity.

Ray Garvin fades Chuba Hubbard as the Dave Canales RB play this year despite acknowledging the organization likes him and he had a strong year two years ago. Garvin cites limited explosiveness and pass-catching ability as key weaknesses compared to Jonathan Brooks' well-rounded profile. He's willing to flip to Chuba only if Brooks rises to round 6 and Chuba falls to round 8, but prefers Brooks' unknown upside over the known quantity of Hubbard.

Ray Garvin identifies Jonathan Brooks as the primary Dave Canales RB breakout candidate over Chuba Hubbard, citing his well-rounded profile with explosiveness and pass-catching ability versus Hubbard's limitations. Garvin notes a historical pattern of Canales RBs (Bucky Irving, Rico Dowdle) starting as the number two and taking over; he targets Brooks at 7th-8th round ADP as easy value, willing to flip to Chuba only if Brooks rises to round 6 and Chuba falls to round 8. Recent FFPC/NFFC drafts show the market attacking Brooks now. Garvin acknowledges Brooks' injury history (knee injury twice, re-injured upon return) as a legitimate concern but prefers betting on Brooks' unknown upside over Hubbard's known production.

Ray Garvin identifies Omarion Hampton as a potential league-winning running back if drafting in high volume. Garvin explicitly states he would much rather bet on Hampton at cost than on Tank Tooten, positioning Hampton as a superior draft target with higher upside.

Lequinte Allen is a really good pass catcher who could be an annoying presence limiting Breida Tuten's ceiling in the Jacksonville backfield. If the Jaguars trust Allen in the pass-catching role, it significantly constrains Tuten's target and reception upside.

Ray Garvin prefers DeAndre Swift as an alternative to Breida Tuten, citing less backfield competition. Garvin is willing to wait a few picks later in the draft to access Swift rather than reach for Tuten in round 6.

Chris Rodriguez is expected to be available by September and projected to handle some carries in Jacksonville's backfield, though he hasn't been on the field recently. Ray Garvin notes Rodriguez was brought in for a reason and will eat some of the workload, particularly given that Tuten is not a big back and Rodriguez can handle some of the heavier carries. This backfield depth is a concern for Tuten's ceiling.

Ray Garvin identifies Judkins as a top breakout RB candidate with top-40 draft capital who had an empty offseason last year (off-field issues, missed training camp) but is now positioned in a high-volume role. Garvin projects his yards per carry average to trend up and reception total to increase as the offense trusts him more in year two. Judkins is ranked around RB20, ahead of Bucky Irving, Tray Sermon, Henderson, and David Montgomery, and Garvin views him as a volume bet offering the most running back touches in that range. He projects Judkins for 250+ opportunities (rush attempts, targets, receptions) and has drafted him as an RB2 in hero RB builds. Health vibes coming out of OTAs are outstanding, reversing earlier May narratives. Cleveland's offensive line improvements (top pick on Spencer Feno, free-agency spending) and Todd Monken's track record of elevating talent and getting the ball to running backs (referencing Derrick Henry) support the breakout case.

Ray Garvin highlights Judkins as a year-two breakout candidate with outstanding health vibes coming out of OTAs, reversing earlier May gloom-and-doom narratives. Garvin emphasizes Cleveland's offensive line improvements (top pick on Spencer Feno, free-agency spending) and Todd Monken's track record of elevating talent and getting the ball to running backs (referencing Derrick Henry). Judkins showed pass-catching ability last year and should see increased volume and trust in year two; Garvin expects his yards-per-carry average to trend up and reception total to increase. With top-40 draft capital and a high-volume role, Judkins is ranked around RB20 and offers the most running back touches in that range; Garvin projects 250+ opportunities and has drafted him as an RB2 in hero RB builds. Garvin notes Judkins is not a reach but worth being open-minded to.

Ray Garvin notes that fantasy players have underestimated Mitchell's role in the Chargers backfield, saying "We're not being fair to Keaton Mitchell" and acknowledging recent enthusiasm for his opportunity. Mitchell is positioned as a big-time explosive play guy in a backfield constructed to feature different skill sets, distinct from the pass-catching specialist role.

Derrick Henry is locked in as a first-round pick in early 2025 drafts, representing the older running back archetype in a landscape Ray Garvin suggests may face a year of change in fantasy football.

Christian McCaffrey is still going in the first round in early 2025 drafts, anchoring the running back-heavy landscape despite the emergence of younger backs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Ray Garvin is "in" on Hampton as a massive breakout candidate coming out of the second round who could shift win rates. Hampton is the most talented running back in the Chargers backfield despite Keaton Mitchell competition; he was a first-round pick out of UNC with tons of ACC production and receiving ability. Under Mike McDaniel, who has excelled at producing running back scoring, Hampton could replicate a Raheem Mostert-type season with 20-plus touchdowns. The Chargers addressed their offensive line needs and hired McDaniel as play caller, making life easier for Justin Herbert and the 6'2, 220-lb second-year back. Garvin projects a 15-plus touchdown season and describes the backfield construction—with Kamani Vidal as the pass-pro specialist and Hampton as the bell-cow rusher who can also receive—as "a match made in heaven."

James Cook has risen up the board in early 2025 drafts as part of a broader trend of running backs gaining draft capital.

Jahmyr Gibbs is positioned at pick 1 or 2 in early 2025 drafts alongside Bijan Robinson, with most drafters splitting the difference between the two at the top of the board as part of a broader year of the running back trend.

Bijan Robinson is positioned at pick 1 or 2 in early 2025 drafts alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, with most drafters splitting the difference between the two at the top of the board as part of a broader year of the running back trend.

Quentin Johnston will be steamed up into round six, and there will be some disappointed people with him.

Wandale Robinson is a value wide receiver the analyst is hoping to sneak away with, fitting a short area receiver profile with high volume.

Parker Washington is a value wide receiver the analyst is hoping to sneak away with, fitting a short area receiver profile with high volume.

Greg Dulcich is liked a lot by the analyst and could be a point of disagreement versus Chigoziem Okonkwo.

Travis Etienne Jr. will likely get more catches than Kyron Williams, with or without Alvin Kamara in the picture.

Alvin Kamara is unlikely to get many carries; the question is whether he'll take targets instead, but there aren't many running backs getting a lot of catches these days.

Travis Etienne is mentioned as a viable RB1 option in the same tier as Kyron Williams and Breece Hall.

Breece Hall is in the range of the last running back the analyst is comfortable having as an RB1, going back-to-back with Kyron Williams on Fantasy Pros.

Kyron Williams is in the range of the last running back the analyst is comfortable having as an RB1, going back-to-back with Breece Hall on Fantasy Pros.

Fernando Mendoza is expected to take over as the Raiders' starting QB, with one analyst predicting he could start as early as week 2 if Kirk Cousins struggles in week 1.

Kirk Cousins will start a limited number of games in Las Vegas before passing the torch to Fernando Mendoza; one analyst predicts he'll be benched by week 14 after the bye week.

Chris Godwin will go back to the slot and be a short area target and check-down guy—an easy button for Baker Mayfield.

Antonio Brown has a profile most similar to Brian Thomas Jr. as a potential disappointment; he had a higher ADP as a rookie than Brian Thomas Jr., and if Chris Godwin takes the slot role with easy targets while Brown works downfield and gets banged up, he could underperform.

Malik Nabers could disappoint coming off a torn ACL plus other injuries.

Luther Burden could disappoint right from the jump given how many other players are getting targets in Chicago.

Christian Watson coming off a torn ACL is part of a pattern where there have been more success stories than expected from players returning from major injuries, suggesting the analyst may be too low on such players.

Tucker Kraft as tight end five is a little nerve wracking; while he's participating in training camp and looks fine, coming off a torn ACL, we don't know he'll be the same until the following year.

Chigo Conquo could be a good one to outperform ADP, and he's another name that will steam up once training camp opens with reports from Washington.

Tucker Kraft is tight end five on the board at 80th overall, which is a little nerve-wracking, though he is participating in training camp and looks fine.

Isaiah Likely is going 125th overall on Fantasy Pros and 113th on Draft Sharks (95th on CBS), making him tight end 13 and one of the best values at the position.

Javante Williams could struggle, which would lead to increased usage for Jaden Blue, though the analyst doesn't necessarily believe this will happen.

Kyler Murray will win the starting job in Minnesota and could be talked about as a top-12 quarterback, especially once people remember how much he runs with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Quentin Johnston is the better value between him and Ladd McConkie, as McConkie is being drafted ahead of Johnston despite Johnston's potential upside.

Quentin Johnston is better at creating explosives in the Mike McDaniel offense than Ladd McConkie, though McConkie may be better at shorter routes and after-catch work.

Ricky Pearsall is a boom-bust wide receiver three who could win a week or go a month without topping 50 yards, but could put it all together for a really good year if healthy.

Ricky Pearsall has a 14.1-yard ADOT and could see that decrease if Mike Evans handles more downfield work, potentially improving his consistency.

Ricky Pearsall is a post-hype sleeper with excellent per-target efficiency; in six games with 7+ targets, he had 85+ yards in five of them and is available later than similar players like Christian Watson.

Jeremiah Love is likely to jump from outside a top-12 pick this year to a top-five pick next year, as he could have a mediocre fantasy year but show enough before Connor departs.

Christian Watson had a 23% target share in a six-game sample with high efficiency, and removing Dobbs and Wicks could help concentrate targets among Watson, Golden, Kraft, and Reed.

Christian Watson is going 54th overall on Fantasy Pros, which seems rich compared to Alec Pierce at 82nd, though Pierce is injured; Watson has similar efficiency metrics and could offer value.

In a best-case scenario, Christian Watson could finish as a top-12 wide receiver, with potential for 115+ targets if he maintains his 23.5% target share from weeks 11-17.

Lamar Jackson is the second quarterback off the board on Fantasy Pros and Draft Sharks, but a decent amount behind Josh Allen, creating a discount.

Lamar Jackson could be the second QB off the board in fantasy, with a good case to be made for that role, especially with Miles Garrett out of the division for two fewer games.

Jamison Williams finished as the number 12 wide receiver last year in overall PPR points, which surprised the analysts given the depth of talent on the Lions.

Dave Richard makes a case that Lamar Jackson could be the second QB off the board in fantasy, behind only Josh Allen, citing his impressive passing when healthy, scrambling ability, and the Ravens' new offensive scheme with more play-action and creativity.

Mark Andrews expressed optimism about the Ravens' new offense under Declan Doyle, noting it will use more tight ends and be totally different from what they've done before, which should benefit his role.

In the first six games with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, Breece Hall was on pace for 96 targets; after the Devante Adams trade, he dropped to 72 targets pace over the remaining games, suggesting his target volume decreased when another elite receiver joined the team.

Kenneth Gainwell had 32 targets and 24 catches on third down with Aaron Rodgers, highlighting the value of the third-down running back role in Rodgers' offense.

Pickens' production was boosted by CeeDee Lamb missing games; when looking at weeks 8-17, Lamb was on pace for 156 targets while Pickens was on pace for 146, suggesting Lamb should see more targets going forward.

Adam Azer is willing to take the chance on Lamb finishing as a top 10 or top 8 PPR points per game receiver, citing his consistency last year and historically as a more consistent fantasy performer than George Pickens.

Williams' talent is elite, but he has never been a consistently good fantasy receiver when LaPorta has been on the field, which could be a concern under Petsky's tight-end-heavy system.

LaPorta should benefit the most from Drew Petsky's hiring in Detroit; Petsky has a strong track record of utilizing tight ends, with his tight ends seeing at least 33.1% target share annually in Arizona and top-six multi-tight end personnel sets.

Lamar Jackson was excellent under Todd Monken (4th, 3rd, and 11th in points), and it's unclear how much better he can get under Declan Doyle's system, though the new coordinator may unlock more for other receivers.

Flowers should see increased targets under Doyle's more creative offense that is more open to letting Lamar throw, benefiting from the new play-calling approach.

Andrews has room for one last real good fantasy season under Declan Doyle's system because he will be on the field a lot and remains Lamar Jackson's guy.

Barkley should benefit from increased running back carries under Mannion's system; Philadelphia is expected to land somewhere between last year's 22 RB runs per game and 2024's 27 RB runs per game, meaning more volume for Barkley.

Philadelphia's draft of Lemon signals they anticipate zone coverage and are willing to exploit it; Lemon was great against zone coverage in college, though adjustment to the NFL remains to be seen.

Smith is good against zone coverage, which Philadelphia expects to see more of under Mannion's system as defenses will play zone to avoid getting burned by Hurts on the ground.

Sean Mannion's system asks Hurts to do things he's never done before, including more under-center snaps and motion, which is a significant departure from Philadelphia's typical shotgun-heavy, low-motion approach and may not be a good fit.

Johnston will benefit from McDaniel's scheme that emphasizes yards after catch, which is an area he is working to improve, and he will have the green light for downfield throws on one-on-one matchups.

Mike McDaniel's West Coast offense emphasizes easier completions and quick throws for Herbert, similar to his approach with Tua in Miami, which should lead to higher completion percentages and better yards after catch opportunities.

Trey McBride is recommended as one of the elite tight ends to pay up for at the absolute top of the draft to secure league-winning potential.

Brock Bowers is recommended as one of the elite tight ends to pay up for at the absolute top of the draft to secure league-winning potential.

Rob Gronkowski is recommended as one of the elite tight ends to pay up for at the absolute top of the draft to secure league-winning potential.

Mark Andrews (Likely) is cited as an example of a late-round dart checklist candidate who could apply to the archetype of tight ends about to explode with route increases.

Dalton Kincaid only had one 20-point game, meaning you're paying for a ceiling that is really not there in fantasy football.

Jake Ferguson ended up being a pretty good pick in 2025, with spike week potential including 21-point and 23-point games.

Jake Ferguson had spike weeks in 2025 (21-point and 23-point games) but his ceiling was dependent on Lamb and Pickens being off the field, and he wasn't providing much value otherwise.

Colston Loveland is used as a hypothetical example: if he gets 104 targets but runs hot on touchdowns (12 TDs) for the Chicago Bears and becomes a second-round pick in 2027, the analyst would like the performance but not pay that price.

Rob Gronkowski is cited as a historical true difference maker tight end with a clear high-end role on his team and an unassailable target volume.

Jimmy Graham is cited as a historical true difference maker tight end with a clear high-end role on his team, going in rounds two, three, or four.

Trey McBride is recommended as a true difference maker tight end with an unassailable role in terms of target volume, historically going in rounds two, three, or four.

Robert Tonyan was a great example of paying for touchdowns despite playing a ton of snaps; he didn't generate targets and had lower targets per route run, exemplifying why touchdown-dependent tight ends bust.

Cole Kmet was a historical bust example who played a ton of snaps but didn't generate targets relative to his route share, with busts averaging 11.5% target share versus 17.9% for successful tight ends.

Mike Gesicki was a historical bust example who played a ton of snaps but didn't generate targets relative to his route share, with busts averaging 11.5% target share versus 17.9% for successful tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth was a historical bust example who played a ton of snaps but didn't generate targets relative to his route share, with busts averaging 11.5% target share versus 17.9% for successful tight ends.

Dawson Knox was a historical bust example who played a ton of snaps but didn't generate targets relative to his route share, with a target share of 11.5% compared to successful tight ends at 17.9%.

Dalton Schultz has similar expected routes and targets to Isaiah Likely, suggesting comparable fantasy point production.

Terrance Ferguson has a legitimate breakout argument as teams are playing more 12 and 13 personnel packages.

Greg Dulcich has a legitimate breakout argument as teams are playing more 12 and 13 personnel packages.

Gunner Helm has a legitimate breakout argument and could end up third or fourth on his team in target share, with similar expected fantasy points to Isaiah Likely.

Isaiah Likely's role is not expected to be significantly different from mid-tier tight ends like Gunner Helm or Greg Dulcich, and he is unlikely to be second on his team in target share, limiting his upside.

Travis Kelce scored 11 points per game, comparable to Kyle Pitts despite being drafted much later.

George Kittle averaged 14.7 points per game coming off an injury, outperforming Kyle Pitts despite being drafted later.

Kyle Pitts scored 12 points per game, which is lower than George Kittle (14.7 PPG) and comparable to Travis Kelce (11 PPG) despite being drafted significantly earlier, suggesting he underperformed relative to his draft capital.

Averaged 11 points per game last year and is going significantly later than Kyle Pitts (12 PPG), offering better value in 2026 ADP.

Coming off an injury, Kittle averaged 14.7 points per game last year, offering better value than Kyle Pitts (12 PPG) who is going significantly earlier in 2026 ADP.

In 2026, Pitts scored 12 points per game last year and is being paid for that performance, while tight ends going significantly later like George Kittle (14.7 PPG) and Travis Kelce (11 PPG) offer better value.

In 2026 ADP, Kraft is being paid for last year's performance; the tight end 7-12 ADP range has only a 14% chance of a true breakout and 44% chance of a top 12 finish.

Mentioned as an example of a tight end in the 7-12 ADP range that can hit, though this range generally has only a 14% chance of a true breakout and 44% chance of a top 12 finish.

Had one crazy career season with many touchdowns and was a top option on his team, but then disappeared; in the second-to-last year of his career he had nine touchdowns and 1,000 yards at age 30 after being basically a no one in fantasy football, illustrating the unpredictability of tight end touchdown spikes.

Example of a tight end whose touchdown production did not repeat year-over-year, illustrating the noise in tight end touchdown correlation.

Had 75 targets and finished with 12 touchdowns as a member of the Denver Broncos Peyton Manning teams, serving as an example of a tight end who finished as a top option despite not being a top-two target on his team.

Stroud faces significant pressure to prove himself in 2026 after a difficult sophomore season and deteriorating playoff performance where he appeared confused and lost, particularly in the Patriots game. The source notes his offensive line has been historically bad over his career, which may have contributed to his struggles, but emphasizes that Stroud must now elevate his game to make everyone around him better rather than simply taking what defenses give him and relying on defensive bailouts. If the Texans can finally improve their offensive line, there's potential for a different version of Stroud, but there's also risk he's become shell-shocked from the punishment he's endured.

Taylor is one of the Jets' tight ends who will see significant usage in 2026. When the Jets deploy tight ends like Mason Taylor and Kane Sadiq, slot receiver Omar Cooper will come off the field, limiting his route volume.

Wilson is the Jets' number one receiver in the 2026 depth chart, with A.D. Mitchell as the number two and Omar Cooper as the number three in slot usage.

Price is expected to be a key part of the Seahawks' backfield in 2026 as a rookie. The source notes that the Seahawks will want to establish an effective run game once Price gets up to speed, though early in the season they may rely more on passing given the inexperience at running back and the significant investment in wide receivers like JSN and Rashid Shaheed.

Helani is squarely in the Seahawks' backfield plans for 2026 and is the most experienced running back on the roster; he was a productive lead back at Boise State ahead of Ashen Gentry (a top-10 pick) and is well-liked in passing situations. However, for Helani to deliver serious fantasy value, he would need early-down opportunities, which won't happen given competition from Janarian Price, Emmanuel Wilson, and Zach Charbonnet. He will likely be relegated to passing-down back duty, which caps his fantasy ceiling.

Flowers appears to be an unfavorable regression candidate on the surface, but JJ Zachariason is increasingly bullish on him and actively trying to get more exposure to him in 2026. He has increased his yards per route run in each of the last three seasons (1.86, 2.47, 2.55) and came off a career-best catchable target rate in 2025, suggesting his efficiency gains are real and sustainable rather than regression-prone. Zachariason expects the catchable target rate to scale back but remain solid.

Nakua is identified as an unfavorable regression candidate on the surface, but this should not be interpreted as negative. He has maintained at least a 73% catchable target rate in each of his last three seasons (per Fantasy Pros), making him one of the few players who consistently makes uncatchable balls catchable. He receives a high rate of targets near the line of scrimmage but also a high rate of downfield targets, suggesting his efficiency is driven by elite receiver skill rather than scheme, positioning him to sustain his production.

Diggs is identified as an unfavorable regression candidate entering 2026, with his landing spot being a key variable. He has a lower-than-receiver-average aDOT, which historically correlates with higher catchable target rates that are sticky year over year, suggesting his 2025 efficiency may not be sustainable.

London is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, despite being a contested catch archetype. He saw a lot of uncatchable targets according to Fantasy Pros in 2025, positioning him for favorable regression in catchable target rate.

Johnston is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Wilson is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Harrison is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Worthy is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Collins is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Jefferson is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Addison is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Jeudy is identified as a favorable regression candidate and late-round flyer for best ball in 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve year over year.

Pierce is identified as a favorable regression candidate entering 2026, with a low catchable target rate in 2025 that should improve based on historical regression patterns.

Burden posted a historic rookie season with 2.74 yards per route run (highest among rookie receivers with 200+ routes since 2020 per True Media) and caught 47 of 60 passes, but JJ Zachariason identifies him as an unfavorable regression candidate entering 2026. His ADOT was only 7.7 yards, and with Caleb Williams historically showing below-average catchable target rates, Burden may see a higher uncatchable target rate if asked to work downfield more.

Darnell Mooney is identified as a favorable regression candidate for the Giants entering 2026, with potential for an improved role depending on the health status of Malik Nabers. His catchable target rate has room to improve from depressed 2025 levels.

Jamar Chase's ADOT has declined year over year, with his lowest ADOT of his career in 2025 as he runs more out routes and hitch routes rather than downfield work. Despite the shift toward shorter routes, this represents a favorable development because he's receiving more catchable passes, which should support efficiency metrics like yards per route run.

Evans is a favorable regression candidate despite playing only half a season in 2025 (an outlier). For his archetype as a downfield contested catch receiver, his catch rate has been solid. Moving to the 49ers with Brock Purdy, who consistently maintains better-than-average poor throw rates, Evans should receive more on-target passes in 2026. JJ Zachariason also notes that Evans had a weak efficiency season in 2024 but played only eight games with Baker Mayfield not fully healthy; applying catchable target rate regression logic, Evans can be positioned as a candidate for a massive bounce-back season if health and QB stability improve.

D'Andre Swift is cited as an example of a player with low catchable target rate over two consecutive seasons who did not bounce back, illustrating that regression logic does not always apply and some players may simply lack the efficiency profile to improve year over year.

Matthew Stafford's touchdown rate is identified as one of the most glaringly obvious regression spots this year. Despite posting an almost 8% TD rate and not rushing, he is not being drafted as a top-10 quarterback, suggesting the market may be undervaluing his regression risk or overvaluing other QBs.

Hardman is cited as an example of a player with poor catchable target rate who is commonly expected to regress and improve next year; however, JJ Zachariason cautions against assuming automatic bounce-back without deeper analysis of the underlying situation.

Rice is listed among receivers with high catchable target rates, positioning him as a player less likely to experience efficiency regression.

Pittman is listed among receivers with high catchable target rates, positioning him as a player less likely to regress in efficiency metrics.

Williams was a surprising inclusion on the high catchable target rate list, suggesting unexpected efficiency despite his injury history and role uncertainty.

St. Brown's high catchable target rate reflects the quality of the Detroit offense and quarterback play, supporting sustained efficiency.

Shakir is expected to maintain a high catchable target rate due to his offensive role and usage pattern; his short average depth of target (around four yards) makes it difficult to miss with targets in his environment.

Evans is a favorable regression candidate; he only played half a season last year with a low catchable target rate, but his catch rate has been solid for his contested-catch archetype, and he now joins Brock Purdy's offense, which consistently has better-than-average poor throw rates, suggesting he should get more on-target passes.

Burden had a historic rookie season with 2.74 yards per route run (highest among rookie receivers with 200+ routes since 2020) and caught 47 of 60 passes; however, he's an unfavorable regression candidate because his extremely high catchable target rate (7.7 ADOT) may not be sustainable, and Caleb Williams historically has lower catchable target rates, suggesting Burden could see more uncatchable targets going forward.

Mooney is a favorable regression candidate for the Giants; his role could expand depending on the health of Malik Nabers, creating potential for increased opportunity and catchable targets.

Benjamin has been a positive regression candidate for two straight years; he had under a 50% catchable target rate last year according to Fantasy Pros, which seems low and suggests upside if quarterback play improves with the Jets.

Chase's ADOT has declined year over year, with his lowest ADOT of his career in 2025; he's running more out routes and hitch routes rather than downfield work, which increases his catchable target rate but represents a shift in deployment and role within the offense.

Malik Willis (QB, MIA) is #107 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 131.3 with a 256.8-point projection. Verdict: Willis is an obvious sleeper with elite rushing production and small sample passing efficiency. Across 159 plays over the past 3 seasons, Willis is the QB1 in EPA per play, QB1 in completion percentage over expected, and QB11 in success rate out of 79 qualifiers. That's as a passer! There is not a bigger Small Sample King than Willis, which is why he signed a low-end starter contract with just two years guaranteed.

Kyler Murray (QB, MIN) is #87 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 110.7 with a 269.2-point projection. Verdict: Kyler Murray is one of the best picks in fantasy as the QB17. Kyler Murray is the buy low of all QBs. Going from the Cardinals (one of the worst orgs in American sports) to the Vikings (one of the best per NFLPA reports) can't be overstated, especially while HC Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson are leading the way. 6, QB17).

The source recommends overpaying for Mac Jones as a backup QB with significant spike potential; currently available in the 14th round (1409 ADP) after his value has fallen, presenting a buying opportunity. The source's thesis is that if Brock Purdy gets injured, Mac Jones will be traded to an AFC contender team needing a QB, which will dramatically increase his value. The source expects Mac Jones to increase in value when he signs a deal somewhere next year, making the current discount a smash buy. The 49ers' leverage and Mac Jones' stated commitment to the team create a scenario where a desperate AFC team would overpay to acquire him mid-season.

The source recommends overpaying for Olszewski as a tight end with significant opportunity in Tennessee; currently available in the 15th-16th round range despite ADP of 13-12 and RADP of 14-01, making him very cheap relative to upside. The source liked him coming out despite a poor 40-time and sees real opportunity in Tennessee if Cam Newton and the offense improve. The overpay tier for Olszewski is smaller than for higher-profile assets (e.g., two-thirds instead of one, or a third and fourth swap), making him an accessible target. The source is all in on him as a later-round grab with solid player quality and potentially fun opportunity.

The source ranks Waddle significantly ahead of consensus and expects him to move way up in value next year in startup drafts, becoming more expensive. The Broncos' acquisition signals organizational belief in his talent as a speedster. Unlike his Miami tenure where Tyreek Hill dominated target share, Waddle is now positioned as a feature guy in Denver, which should unlock his ceiling. The source projects he could jump from round 7 to round 5 next year, and expects the market willingness and value to increase if he performs.

The source recently sent a 2027 1st-round pick in a trade to acquire Brian Thomas Jr. in a championship-winning league (5 WR, 2 TE, 2-3 RB, superflex), indicating willingness to overpay for him despite having a loaded roster.

The source is willing to overpay for Judkins despite poor rookie surface stats (18th in attempts, 22nd in yards, 22nd in rushing yards per game, 58th in yards per carry, 63rd in success rate). The rationale centers on environmental factors: averaged just 0.4 yards before contact per rush (dead last among 250+ RBs with 150+ rushes from 2012-2025); faced 8-man+ box 45% of the time (2nd most); yet produced 356 yards against stacked boxes (4th overall, behind only Derek Henry 458, A-chan 357, James Cook 333). 62% of yards came after contact (3rd overall). The Cleveland Browns made significant offensive line investments in 2026: drafted Spencer Fano (OT, pick 9), Casey Concepcion (C, 1st/2nd round), Austin Barber (OT, 3rd), Parker Brailsford (C, 5th, 42 starts at Alabama), and two more tight ends (5th, 7th); traded for Titus Howard (RT); signed Elton Jenkins (G/C) and Zion Johnson (G) from the Chargers; added receivers Denzel Boston and Harold Fannin Jr. The source believes this is 'the best foundational process that they've had in a long time.' Last year Judkins had 50% snap share (32nd) but 66.1% attempt share (3rd), indicating the Browns wanted to use him heavily. Expected improved offensive line and quarterback play (Shador Sanders or Deshaun Watson) should unlock his talent. The source compares Judkins' situation to second-year breakout potential similar to Jamison Williams, noting that Judkins did not have a normal offseason in his rookie year and is recovering from injury; the source believes the second year 'like take a breath for players is so valuable' and expects 'the winds are changing in Cleveland.'

The source ranks Flowers as WR14 individually vs. consensus WR22, believes he will be more expensive next year, and is willing to overpay now. Targets have increased all three seasons (118 last year); 2.52 yards per route run (elite efficiency); 14 yards per reception; 19 explosive plays of 20+ yards; year-over-year growth from 2024 to 2025 with 152 additional receiving yards, 12 more receptions, and one more touchdown; yards per route run improved from 2.25 to 2.52; 10th in expected fantasy points per game at 14.7 last year. First in drops with 10 (indicates opportunity for regression and upside). First in juke rate for evaded tackles per reception, showing YAC ability. The biggest hurdle is whether new offensive coordinator Ken Doyle can execute the new system. If he can, the source believes 'you couldn't pay enough for Zay right now.' The new coordinator is a Sean Payton protege with Ben Johnson influence; Lamar Jackson has called it 'a mind blowing offense.' The source previously was anti-Zay Flowers in prior years but has shifted conviction, calling it 'the Zay Flowers year' and noting that the redraft market is pushing him higher while the dynasty market is moving slower, creating an opportunity.

"RJ Harvey tied Christian McCaffrey by per route run last year" #Broncos #FantasyFootball 👀 Harvey, Dobbins, or rookie Jonah Coleman in that Denver backfield? ➡️ <https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-daily/id1667962907> @​GrahamBarfield @​RyanJ_Heath

"RJ Harvey tied Christian McCaffrey by per route run last year" #Broncos #FantasyFootball 👀 Harvey, Dobbins, or rookie Jonah Coleman in that Denver backfield? ➡️ <https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-daily/id1667962907> @​GrahamBarfield @​RyanJ_Heath

Enjoy some DeVonta Smith film. He's so good. <

Every DeVonta Smith gain of 20+ in 2025

Chiefs QB; one comment notes Mahomes being taken 3-4 rounds too late relative to Walker's ADP, questioning Walker's value if Mahomes doesn't play elite season.

Raiders QB; one comment asks if Cousins typically feeds checkdowns, questioning his fit for Jeanty's pass-game upside. No strong consensus on Cousins' checkdown tendency.

One comment notes they traded Jacobs for Jeanty last year and are now vindicated; another comment says 'anyone with half a brain would have taken Jeanty over Jacobs' (Packers fan perspective).

Historical comp; one comment notes Kubiak's RBs (Cook, Robinson) had solid receiving seasons, suggesting Jeanty could benefit from Kubiak system.

Historical comp; one comment notes Kubiak's RBs (Cook, Bijan Robinson) had solid receiving seasons, suggesting Jeanty could benefit from Kubiak system.

Historical comp for Jeanty under Kubiak system; one comment notes Kamara had ~70 catches in 2024 under Kubiak as OC for Saints, suggesting Jeanty could see 40-50 catches if given workhorse usage.

Raiders backup RB last year; had 22 carries to Jeanty's 266, showing Jeanty's dominant workload despite poor offense. One comment notes this with frustration at Pete Carroll for not using other options.

Chiefs backup RB; one comment argues Emmett Johnson will eat into Walker's touches more than Washington Jr. will eat into Jeanty's, favoring Jeanty. Another comment notes track record for 5th-round picks is poor year one, with reports Demercado ahead of EJ.

Backup RB to Jeanty; community consensus he won't significantly eat into Jeanty's touches. One comment recommends grabbing Washington Jr. as handcuff in case Jeanty goes down, noting 'if Jeanty goes down there is no one else in line.'

Mentioned in context of Achane, Lamb, Cook ahead of Jeanty in current PPR rankings; one comment wonders if Jeanty climbs to round 1 by September.

Mentioned as RB1 tier anchor; one comment takes JT as RB5 after CMC, implying CMC consensus RB1.

Mentioned as comparison point; one comment drafting Jeanty over JT, suggesting Jeanty preferred at similar ADP tier.

Mentioned as comparison point; one comment drafting Jeanty over Cook, suggesting Jeanty preferred at similar ADP tier.

Finished RB12 last year with 266 carries, 1,300 yards, 10 TDs on historically bad Raiders offense; now has Tyler Lindbaum (elite run-blocking center from Ravens), healthier LT Miller, rookie Trey Zuhn (college best blocker award) at G, Klint Kubiak as OC, and Rick Dennison as O-line coach. Community sees immense ceiling; multiple comments call him league-winner; ADP expected to rise from current low into round 1 by September. Kubiak system (Shanahan-style) historically involves RBs heavily in pass game (Kamara had ~70 catches under Kubiak in 2024); Jeanty had 50 catches last year. Concerns: Raiders still likely bottom-10 offense; rookie QB may limit upside; Mike Washington Jr. as backup n...

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers & fallers: • Kyle Pitts (+4.7) • Josh Downs (+4.2) • Harold Fannin (-5.0)

A snapshot of what DraftKings’ Best Ball ADP looks like today 📊 Some notable risers & fallers: • Kyle Pitts (+4.7) • Josh Downs (+4.2) • Harold Fannin (-5.0)

#Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald, the night he drafted Jadarian Price: