NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Tuesday, July 14, 2026
A crawlable daily synthesis of the player-specific takes STACKED extracted from monitored podcasts, videos, articles, and social posts.
Players driving the slate
Brian Thomas Jr.
34 signals15 positive, 19 negative across Breakout, Bust, Depth Chart.
Mark Andrews
17 signals16 positive, 1 negative across Breakout, Projection, Role.
Kyle Pitts
12 signals10 positive, 2 negative across Breakout, Projection, Role.
Parker Washington
10 signals10 positive across Breakout, Projection, Role.
Jaylen Waddle
9 signals9 positive across Matchup, News, Projection.
Harold Fannin
9 signals8 positive, 1 negative across Breakout, Projection, Role.
David Montgomery
9 signals6 positive, 3 negative across Bust, Depth Chart, Matchup.
Trayvon Henderson
8 signals8 positive across Breakout, Projection, Usage.
All extracted player insights
“I also just want to bet on Kyle Shanahan players.” @adamlevitan on Ricky Pearsall’s moving price from this week’s Market Monday:
Michael Pittman’s game fits the current version of Aaron Rodgers perfectly. [Quoted](
Play action without a play fake? Motion, backfield action, and OL slide get LBs to bite Opens up space for slant Tua is able to get the ball to Waddle on time because he doesn’t have to fake
Play action without a play fake? Motion, backfield action, and OL slide get LBs to bite Opens up space for slant Tua is able to get the ball to Waddle on time because he doesn’t have to fake
Lions WRs coach Scottie Montgomery on second-year WR Isaac TeSlaa: "He's so much stronger. What I like to do is I like to watch where we were, especially from an athleticism standpoint, to where he is now. It's not even close. That gives an even bigger window to throw the ball." (via @MLive)
“Harmon are you really gonna hype up Ricky Pearsall again this season?” Me:
Patriots S Kevin Byard says A.J. Brown "shifts your philosophy" on defense: "He's gonna run those slants, those quick dig routes, those go balls. I don't think anybody is better than him when it comes to being able to break a tackle and take it the distance." (via @SiriusXMNFL)
Bills RB James Cook on what it'll take to reach the Super Bowl: "It's on us. It's on us. We control our own destiny. We get close every year... So, just getting over that hump and doing something special in Buffalo by winning a Super Bowl is gonna be big for us." (via @gmfb)
2025 catchable target rate for notable top wide receivers vs. what their new QB posted to their wide receivers last season. Example: Justin Jefferson had a 65.7% catchable target rate last season. Kyler Murray had a 74.2% catchable target rate to wide receivers last season.
2025 catchable target rate for notable top wide receivers vs. what their new QB posted to their wide receivers last season. Example: Justin Jefferson had a 65.7% catchable target rate last season. Kyler Murray had a 74.2% catchable target rate to wide receivers last season.
.@colincowherd on Lamar Jackson: “I no longer trust Lamar Jackson in a big spot. I'm selling my stock... I'd take Bo Nix today in a 4th quarter come from behind situation over Lamar"
.@colincowherd on Lamar Jackson: “I no longer trust Lamar Jackson in a big spot. I'm selling my stock... I'd take Bo Nix today in a 4th quarter come from behind situation over Lamar"
.@colincowherd ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1 - Josh Allen 2 - Patrick Mahomes 3 - Caleb Williams 4 - Matthew Stafford 5 - Justin Herbert 6 - Joe Burrow 7 - Sam Darnold 8 - Jared Goff 9 - Jordan Love 10 - Drake Maye
.@colincowherd ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1 - Josh Allen 2 - Patrick Mahomes 3 - Caleb Williams 4 - Matthew Stafford 5 - Justin Herbert 6 - Joe Burrow 7 - Sam Darnold 8 - Jared Goff 9 - Jordan Love 10 - Drake Maye
.@colincowherd ranks his Top 10 QBs for the 2026 season: 1 - Josh Allen 2 - Patrick Mahomes 3 - Caleb Williams 4 - Matthew Stafford 5 - Justin Herbert 6 - Joe Burrow 7 - Sam Darnold 8 - Jared Goff 9 - Jordan Love 10 - Drake Maye
Five WRs have much higher ranks in @RotoWireNFL projected targets vs. their positional ADP: -Josh Downs: 28th projected targets, WR43 ADP (+15) -Michael Wilson: 32nd, WR46 (+14) -Wan'Dale Robinson: 38th, WR50 (+12) -Garrett Wilson: 9th, WR20 (+11) -Jerry Jeudy: 63rd, WR73 (+10)
Five WRs have much higher ranks in @RotoWireNFL projected targets vs. their positional ADP: -Josh Downs: 28th projected targets, WR43 ADP (+15) -Michael Wilson: 32nd, WR46 (+14) -Wan'Dale Robinson: 38th, WR50 (+12) -Garrett Wilson: 9th, WR20 (+11) -Jerry Jeudy: 63rd, WR73 (+10)
Five WRs have much higher ranks in @RotoWireNFL projected targets vs. their positional ADP: -Josh Downs: 28th projected targets, WR43 ADP (+15) -Michael Wilson: 32nd, WR46 (+14) -Wan'Dale Robinson: 38th, WR50 (+12) -Garrett Wilson: 9th, WR20 (+11) -Jerry Jeudy: 63rd, WR73 (+10)
Five WRs have much higher ranks in @RotoWireNFL projected targets vs. their positional ADP: -Josh Downs: 28th projected targets, WR43 ADP (+15) -Michael Wilson: 32nd, WR46 (+14) -Wan'Dale Robinson: 38th, WR50 (+12) -Garrett Wilson: 9th, WR20 (+11) -Jerry Jeudy: 63rd, WR73 (+10)
Five WRs have much higher ranks in @RotoWireNFL projected targets vs. their positional ADP: -Josh Downs: 28th projected targets, WR43 ADP (+15) -Michael Wilson: 32nd, WR46 (+14) -Wan'Dale Robinson: 38th, WR50 (+12) -Garrett Wilson: 9th, WR20 (+11) -Jerry Jeudy: 63rd, WR73 (+10)
TE George Kittle (Achilles) is ahead of schedule in his rehab and has 'a real chance' to be active for Week 1. (via @TheAthletic)
.@JFowlerESPN says he "doesn't think" the Commanders are going to bring in WR Brandon Aiyuk "at this stage." (via @ESPNNFL)
Let's add Kayshon Boutte to this Kansas City Chiefs offense and see what happens
Jets QB Geno Smith has been cleared of any criminal charges by police in South Florida following an investigation into an alleged domestic incident on June 21, per @AndySlater
Harbaugh said Nabers is expected to work into practice as camp starts; two surgeries on right knee since ACL tear last September; no guarantees on timeline. Community split: some dismiss 'one way or another' as non-committal coach-speak lacking confidence; others note this contradicts earlier Reddit panic about 4-5 week absences and argue Harbaugh has no reason to lie. Best ball ADP currently mid-4th round (Underdog ~39th overall, DraftKings 4th round); will likely fall to early 5th if placed on PUP. Risk-averse managers fading unless 5th-6th round; value hunters willing to gamble if he drops further. Multiple surgeries and lack of route-running video evidence fuel durability concerns; so...
You can believe that Lamar Jackson is a top QB while also subscribing to the idea that he was closer to the 69th overall in 2025 for a variety of reasons. DM for my Venmo
61 running backs in just over an hour in my fantasy football RB tier breakdown! -I'm drinking the Saquon comeback szn Kool-Aid -How often do bad scoring offenses produce good fantasy RBs? -The David Montgomery dilemma -Rico Dowdle price is nicey -MORE 📽️ <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImIYTg1raro>
61 running backs in just over an hour in my fantasy football RB tier breakdown! -I'm drinking the Saquon comeback szn Kool-Aid -How often do bad scoring offenses produce good fantasy RBs? -The David Montgomery dilemma -Rico Dowdle price is nicey -MORE 📽️ <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImIYTg1raro>
61 running backs in just over an hour in my fantasy football RB tier breakdown! -I'm drinking the Saquon comeback szn Kool-Aid -How often do bad scoring offenses produce good fantasy RBs? -The David Montgomery dilemma -Rico Dowdle price is nicey -MORE 📽️ <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImIYTg1raro>
Rushing leaders since 2023: 4,600 - Derrick Henry 4,500 - 4,400 - 4,300 - 4,200 - 4,100 - 4,000 - 3,900 - Bijan Robinson 3,800 - 3,700 - Jonathan Taylor 3,700 - James Cook
Rushing leaders since 2023: 4,600 - Derrick Henry 4,500 - 4,400 - 4,300 - 4,200 - 4,100 - 4,000 - 3,900 - Bijan Robinson 3,800 - 3,700 - Jonathan Taylor 3,700 - James Cook
Rushing leaders since 2023: 4,600 - Derrick Henry 4,500 - 4,400 - 4,300 - 4,200 - 4,100 - 4,000 - 3,900 - Bijan Robinson 3,800 - 3,700 - Jonathan Taylor 3,700 - James Cook
Rushing leaders since 2023: 4,600 - Derrick Henry 4,500 - 4,400 - 4,300 - 4,200 - 4,100 - 4,000 - 3,900 - Bijan Robinson 3,800 - 3,700 - Jonathan Taylor 3,700 - James Cook
Cited alongside Derrick Henry as example of modern RB durability; comment suggests improved player safety/training allows elite RBs to sustain elite performance into late career without heavy injury risk.
Cited as example of modern RB durability and longevity; comment suggests improved player safety/training allows elite RBs to sustain elite performance into late career without heavy injury risk.
Mentioned as example of surprisingly low ADP in early 2025 mock drafts; no specific injury or durability claim attached, just ADP observation.
Reception Perception The Show 🏈 @MattHarmon_BYB and @JamesDKoh discuss: -Puka Nacua ELITE profile -Zay Flowers areas of improvement -Titans passing offense outlook <https://linktr.ee/ReceptionPerception> [Retweeted](
Reception Perception The Show 🏈 @MattHarmon_BYB and @JamesDKoh discuss: -Puka Nacua ELITE profile -Zay Flowers areas of improvement -Titans passing offense outlook <https://linktr.ee/ReceptionPerception> [Retweeted](
Zay Flowers profile is live (with a guest appearance from @heathcummingssr) on Beyond the Box Score! - WR1 film - WR1 data - clear path for continued progression in Year 4 Flowers feels like one of the most overlooked players in Fantasy Football drafts: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOtYRpJW-u0&lc=UgwGXoEkVoTQdlyoZ4h4AaABAg>
Feel like I’m on island here but actual think Kyler Murray is not a strong pick at all in best ball. Seems like he has to overcome multiple things to return value. For one, while the rushing volume is solid for a QB, he does not hop into that elite range of rushing QBs from how I see it. There's 8 QBs who average 6.5+ rushing FP/G over the past 5 years. Murray represents a massive tier break as the QB9 here with just 5.1 rushing FP/G, much more similar to the likes of a Daniel Jones or Bo Nix...
Feel like I’m on island here but actual think Kyler Murray is not a strong pick at all in best ball. Seems like he has to overcome multiple things to return value. For one, while the rushing volume is solid for a QB, he does not hop into that elite range of rushing QBs from how I see it. There's 8 QBs who average 6.5+ rushing FP/G over the past 5 years. Murray represents a massive tier break as the QB9 here with just 5.1 rushing FP/G, much more similar to the likes of a Daniel Jones or Bo Nix...
.@CBSSports ranks the 5 WORST NFL ‘triplets’ (QB/RB/Pass Catcher): 32 - Cleveland Browns (Sanders/Judkins/Fannin) 31 - Miami Dolphins (Willis/Achane/???) 30 - Tennessee Titans (Ward/Pollard/Tate) 29 - NY Jets (Smith/Hall/Wilson) 28 - Carolina Panthers (Young/Hubbard/T-Mac)
.@CBSSports ranks the 5 WORST NFL ‘triplets’ (QB/RB/Pass Catcher): 32 - Cleveland Browns (Sanders/Judkins/Fannin) 31 - Miami Dolphins (Willis/Achane/???) 30 - Tennessee Titans (Ward/Pollard/Tate) 29 - NY Jets (Smith/Hall/Wilson) 28 - Carolina Panthers (Young/Hubbard/T-Mac)
.@CBSSports ranks the 5 WORST NFL ‘triplets’ (QB/RB/Pass Catcher): 32 - Cleveland Browns (Sanders/Judkins/Fannin) 31 - Miami Dolphins (Willis/Achane/???) 30 - Tennessee Titans (Ward/Pollard/Tate) 29 - NY Jets (Smith/Hall/Wilson) 28 - Carolina Panthers (Young/Hubbard/T-Mac)
.@CBSSports ranks the 5 WORST NFL ‘triplets’ (QB/RB/Pass Catcher): 32 - Cleveland Browns (Sanders/Judkins/Fannin) 31 - Miami Dolphins (Willis/Achane/???) 30 - Tennessee Titans (Ward/Pollard/Tate) 29 - NY Jets (Smith/Hall/Wilson) 28 - Carolina Panthers (Young/Hubbard/T-Mac)
.@CBSSports ranks the 5 WORST NFL ‘triplets’ (QB/RB/Pass Catcher): 32 - Cleveland Browns (Sanders/Judkins/Fannin) 31 - Miami Dolphins (Willis/Achane/???) 30 - Tennessee Titans (Ward/Pollard/Tate) 29 - NY Jets (Smith/Hall/Wilson) 28 - Carolina Panthers (Young/Hubbard/T-Mac)
Jaylen Waddle had Mike McDaniel and no Tyreek Hill for 16 games but only put up 910 yards and 6 touchdowns.
.@CBSSports ranks the 5 BEST NFL ‘triplets’ (QB/RB/Pass Catcher): 1 - Cincinnati Bengals (Burrow/Brown/Chase) 2 - LA Rams (Stafford/Kyren/Puka) 3 - Detroit Lions (Goff/Amon-Ra/Gibbs) 4 - Baltimore Ravens (Lamar/Henry/Flowers) 5 - Dallas Cowboys (Dak/Williams/Lamb)
.@CBSSports ranks the 5 BEST NFL ‘triplets’ (QB/RB/Pass Catcher): 1 - Cincinnati Bengals (Burrow/Brown/Chase) 2 - LA Rams (Stafford/Kyren/Puka) 3 - Detroit Lions (Goff/Amon-Ra/Gibbs) 4 - Baltimore Ravens (Lamar/Henry/Flowers) 5 - Dallas Cowboys (Dak/Williams/Lamb)
Courtland Sutton has never finished inside the top 18 WRs in FP/G in 8 seasons (and inside the top 24 just once), despite an ideal set up the last couple years with no target comp in a good offense. He’s never been close to an elite target-earner (0.22 TPRR over L5 years) and is pretty clearly capped upside wise. Jaylen Waddle has remained highly efficient (0.25 TPRR and 2.27 YPRR since 2021, 2.4+ YPRR in 3 of L4 years per @FantasyPtsData) in the face of really poor environments recently, an...
Courtland Sutton has never finished inside the top 18 WRs in FP/G in 8 seasons (and inside the top 24 just once), despite an ideal set up the last couple years with no target comp in a good offense. He’s never been close to an elite target-earner (0.22 TPRR over L5 years) and is pretty clearly capped upside wise. Jaylen Waddle has remained highly efficient (0.25 TPRR and 2.27 YPRR since 2021, 2.4+ YPRR in 3 of L4 years per @FantasyPtsData) in the face of really poor environments recently, an...
Joe Flacco’s Super Bowl MVP trophy 🔥
NFL Top 100: Courtland Sutton - 68 Lamar Jackson - 69
NFL Top 100: Courtland Sutton - 68 Lamar Jackson - 69
Chargers TE; one comment: 'Ja'Kobi Lane is going to surprise a lot of people in the next 3 years. If Declan Doyle is competent/the O-Line isn't putrid I wouldn't be surprised to see Lamar right up there.' Mentioned in context of Lamar's supporting cast improvement.
Bears RB; mentioned in context of ETN comparison for Jaguars. Not directly discussed.
Bears TE; mentioned as potential red-zone target. Jaguars drafted multiple TEs for Lawrence; Bears have Kmet and Loveland. Supporting cast depth noted as strength for Bears offense.
Bears WR; year 3 with Caleb. First 4 weeks strong (35 targets, 20 catches, 300 yards, 4 TDs) but played hurt rest of season (7 catches on 21 targets last 3 weeks). One comment: 'Rome was clearly playing hurt last year...he has 2 more boom weeks but the rest of the season he was quite inefficient.' Expected to improve in year 2 with full health. Loveland also mentioned as 'among the very best tight ends in the league.'
Ravens added Henry in offseason alongside best OG in draft and Ben Johnson's protege. One comment expresses concern: 'Henry is a year older, and while undeniably elite, Father Time is undefeated.' Suggests Ravens offense may flow through Henry again, reducing Lamar's rushing volume. Age 30+ RBs have >95% chance of underperformance per one comment.
Mentioned in comments as comparison point for Caleb Williams. Comment notes that phrase 'makes some absolutely amazing throws' can be applied to both Caleb and AR, making it a useless argument for differentiating them (since AR is 'terrible'). Used as rhetorical device to critique Caleb hype; not seriously discussed as QB1 candidate.
Mentioned in article as dynasty QB1 candidate; community incredulous. 'Did I just read the name Malik Willis in an article about potential dynasty QB1 overall candidates...' Consensus: not credible; appears to be filler/clickbait.
Not on article list but mentioned as omission worthy of 'honorable mention' at minimum. 28 years old; QB1 every season since becoming starter including 2 top-3 seasons; incredibly consistent. New OC (Sean Mannion) expected to be transformative; OL injury-laden in 2025 but healthy again. One comment: 'disrespectful' to pass over Hurts in favor of Tyler Shough and Malik Willis. Consensus: more credible than several article candidates.
Not on article list but mentioned as omission. Closing stretch last year was 'QB1 material'; dual-threat ability noted. Concerns: full body of work shows inconsistency; losing ETN (good receiving back) is double-edged sword—may vulture more TDs/rushing attempts but losing receiving option. Jaguars drafted multiple TEs; will go heavy in red zone. Potential for improvement but not consensus QB1 threat.
Article candidate; community harsh. 'Bo Nix isn't that good at football'; 'not ready for Bo Nix with an elite WR'; led league in passing volume because team was behind due to Nix being bad; top-5 defense masked poor play. By advanced metrics mid-to-bad; by eye test outright bad. One comment: 'Y'all aren't ready for Bo Nix with an elite wide receiver' (sarcastic/joking). Consensus: not credible QB1 candidate.
Article candidate; community dismissive. 'Same age as Allen and about 500,000x worse'; hasn't put up high-end QB1 season since 2021; McDaniels made Tua fantasy-relevant but Herbert hasn't delivered despite opportunities. One comment expresses love for Herbert in 2026 with new offense, but this is outlier. Consensus: not credible QB1 threat.
Article candidate; minimal community discussion. One comment notes article points out Maye's inconsistency as concern. Limited evidence of strong conviction either direction; appears to be placeholder candidate rather than serious QB1 threat.
Article candidate; community skeptical. Hype compared to Jayden Daniels' post-year-1 hype (which faded). Durability concerns: 'going to have to play in bubble wrap' to compete; injury history makes him risky for dynasty QB1 projection. Commanders new OC (no experience) adds uncertainty. Dual-threat ability noted but insufficient to overcome durability red flags.
Absent from article despite being only 30 and peer to Allen/Lamar. Community notes injury last year expected to cap rushing production going forward; steadily declining downfield passing metrics; shaky supporting cast this year. One comment suggests Mahomes could throw for 5000/50 and still not leapfrog Allen due to age/value dynamics in dynasty. Injury durability concern more acute than Allen's.
Notably absent from article despite being most credible alternative per community. MVP 2 years ago; 4100 passing yards, 41 TDs, 4 INTs, 900+ rushing yards, 4 rush TDs two seasons ago. Last year injury-riddled (7 TDs, 6 INTs last 8 games); Ravens added best OG in draft, hired Ben Johnson's protege (Declan Doyle, one year with BJ), Derrick Henry. Concerns: age 29; hyper-mobile QBs decline in 30s; rushing volume declining (holds ball too long, doesn't run like 2019); one bad season on snake-bitten team. Supporters argue one injury year shouldn't erase MVP pedigree; historically crushes first year in new system. Durability debate: Allen missed 4 games rookie year, none since; Lamar's injury h...
Article candidate for QB1; community deeply divided. Positives: QB5 finish year 2 despite 63% completion %; elite pressure escape ability; fastest QB in NFL last year (5 of top 7 QB speeds recorded); 2nd-most big-time throws; Ben Johnson scheme will improve accuracy in year 2 (Burden/Loveland no longer rookies; Rome in year 3 together). Negatives: completion % (63% year 1, similar year 2) is red flag; doesn't run enough (Josh Allen runs for TDs; Caleb avoids contact, slides/goes OOB); insufficient rushing floor to match Allen; inconsistent through 50 minutes of games; late-game heroics inflated perception; Bears 8-6 in one-score games (not 'insanely good'). Madden cover hype premature. Ye...
Viewed as nearly untouchable dynasty QB1 with unmatched consistency: QB1/QB2 floor for 6+ years; top-2 finish every season since 2019 (QB6 in year 2, never below top-2 since). Rushing floor is key differentiator—double-digit rush TDs last 3 years; community notes he's a 'unicorn' and 'iron man' with unprecedented durability (missed 4 games rookie year, none since; plays through injuries). Completion % improved dramatically from 59% year 2 to elite levels. Consensus: no realistic challenger unless Allen declines due to injury/age/coaching change.
Wonder what Joe Mixon is up to these days
Running back dart pick selected in the draft; chosen as an alternative to Demond Clayborn who was selected in a previous draft iteration, representing a late-round speculative running back addition.
One of two wide receiver options for the flex position in week one, with the final decision between him and Garrett Wilson to be made based on matchups, rankings, and other contextual factors.
Selected as a safer wide receiver option in the draft to balance two rookie wide receiver picks already made; chosen over Jerry Jeudy to avoid stacking two Browns wide receivers on the same fantasy team, indicating a portfolio-management concern rather than a standalone positive evaluation.
Handcuff running back selected as a dart pick in middle-slot draft strategy. Described as probably the speaker's favorite running back in the NFL right now due to being in a perfect situation if Saquon Barkley misses any time, offering strong upside at a late-round cost.
Rookie wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns selected as a draft target in middle-slot strategy. The Athletic reported that the Browns have been pleased with Boston, with the team indicating they may have even taken him in the first round if absolutely necessary, signaling strong internal evaluation and breakout potential.
Ranked as running back four in Mattek's middle-slot draft strategy; positioned as a real target in redraft leagues due to safety and predictability of start/sit decisions. Less favored in Best Ball formats where the ability to know when to start him is less valuable.
Not a huge redraft target for Mattek; selected only when available wide receivers were not doing much of anything. Considered fine as a tight end option but not a priority.
Has both a quite safe floor and the possibility to score 13–14 fantasy points per game; preferred over Khalil Lemon in Mattek's draft strategy. Selected as the probable flex position starter for week one, providing depth at running back.
Selected as part of a top-five wide receiver core in a heavy receiver draft strategy from the middle slot, alongside St. Brown, Derrick Henry, Tee Higgins, and Garrett Wilson. Mattek emphasizes the importance of round five running back selections in this approach.
Selected as part of a heavy wide receiver start strategy from the middle slot; part of a top-five that includes St. Brown, Derrick Henry, Tee Higgins, and Quintez Cephus. Mattek uses him as a flex option for week one, with the final decision between him and Mecole Hardman to be made based on matchups and rankings.
Selected in round three as part of a heavy wide receiver draft strategy from the middle slot; part of a top-five anchored by St. Brown, Derrick Henry, Garrett Wilson, and Quintez Cephus. Mattek indicates this approach prioritizes round five running back darts. Definitely starting in week one, signaling confidence in his matchup and role.
Can pretty easily be a 15–16 fantasy points per game guy; preferred over mid-second round alternatives like Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, and Javonte Williams due to higher ceiling; selected as the primary running back starter for week one in this draft strategy.
Selected as the first wide receiver in an alternative draft strategy from the middle slot, anchoring a heavy wide receiver start; definitely starting in week one as part of the wide receiver core in this draft strategy.
Third-round wide receiver pick embracing variance strategy; minimal perceived difference between round 2 and round 3 WR tiers; PUP list status to be confirmed closer to draft date per Mattek.
Quarterback selection chosen for stacking purposes with 49ers receivers; selected after George Kittle was unavailable in draft.
Wide receiver dart pick projected to sign with the Raiders; carries many opportunities to impact fantasy football this year; repeated selection target across drafts per Mattek Fantasy Football.
11th-round running back selection described as the perfect round 11 target; cuttable if needed but carries potential RB19 upside; late-round dart with breakout potential.
Wide receiver selection preferred over Jordan Addison in full PPR scoring format. Part of WR room construction strategy.
Second-round tight end selection identified as one of the key fantasy football stories of the season. Mattek loves Bowers and considers him super important for fantasy, but intentionally avoided him in an alternative draft strategy because spending a second or third round pick on a tight end weakens the overall starting lineup; skipping premium tight ends allows for stronger wide receiver and running back depth.
Ranked ahead of Tony Pollard on Mattek's flockfantasy.com rankings. Positioned as a potential week 1 starter over Bijan Robinson. Averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game last year, demonstrating solid flex value.
Characterized as a safe 9.5–10 fantasy points per game option. Formerly a first-round fantasy asset but now a reliable mid-tier tight end producer. Averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game last season, demonstrating flex value potential when used outside the tight end slot.
Fourth-round wide receiver selection projected to lead the Chicago Bears in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Selected to secure WR depth and enable fifth-round running back selection flexibility.
Averaged 8.16 fantasy points per game in games he did not leave injured last year, which would have ranked number two in fantasy football behind only Josh Allen. Selected as a first-round pick from the middle slot (picks 5-8) to ensure access to preferred wide receivers in rounds 2-3 and maintain flexibility in later rounds.
Jackson's ranking at 69 in the 2026 NFL Top 100 is viewed as too low by Garofalo; he remains a special player and is excited about the Declan Doyle offense, which could boost his ranking. The ranking is contextualized against his MVP-caliber status and the fact that he was voted the number one overall player just six years prior, suggesting the Top 100 voting process struggles to properly rank elite quarterbacks.
Waddle is positioned for increased deep-ball opportunity with the Broncos; he recorded 64 catches for 910 yards last year in a timing catch-and-run offense under Russell Wilson, but now plays alongside Courtland Sutton with Bo Nix, who leads the NFL in 20-plus yard throws since 2024. This schematic shift allows Waddle to utilize his speed on stretch plays and vertical routes, elevating his role as the number two wide receiver.
Higgins is cited as a top-tier number two wide receiver in the NFL conversation; last year he recorded 59 catches for 846 yards and 11 touchdowns alongside Jamar Chase for the Cincinnati Bengals, positioning him among the elite secondary receivers in the league.
Diggs remains one of the best number two wide receivers in the league; last year he posted 85 catches for over 1,000 yards and seven career 1,000-yard seasons. He recovered from an ACL injury to be ready for week one and produced at a high level despite off-field distractions that have been legally and NFL-cleared. Garofalo views him as a great addition for a team on the verge of training camp and suggests Washington as an ideal fit alongside Terry McLaurin and Jaden Daniels, where he could elevate the entire offense as a number one-type receiver.
Stefan Diggs states he is still playing full tackle football and is open to signing with a team, claiming he can compete with anybody and that no number two wide receiver is better than him. Diggs made these comments in a video on his YouTube channel.
Chris Alave remains a key receiver for the Saints alongside new first-round pick Jordan Tyson, supporting the improved offense under Kellen Moore.
Jordan Tyson was drafted by the Saints in the first round to pair with Chris Alave, adding receiving talent to support Tyler Shuck's second-year development.
Aiden Hutchinson is expected to help the Lions' defense get above average, which combined with a top-tier offense would give Detroit a strong chance to win the division.
Blake Miller, a first-round pick, takes over at right tackle for the Lions, part of the offensive line improvements that could elevate the Lions' offense to number one in points per game.
Sam Laporta remains a key part of the Lions' high-powered offense, which was fourth in points per game last season and could reach number one with an improved offensive line.
Jamison Williams remains a key part of the Lions' high-powered offense, which was fourth in points per game last season and could reach number one with an improved offensive line.
Jared Goff is playing at a high level for the Lions, who had the fourth-best offense in points per game last season. Mark Ross expects the Lions' offense to potentially reach number one with an improved offensive line.
Justin Herbert benefits from Mike McDaniels' offensive scheme with the Chargers, which will feature more moving pocket plays and bootlegs to support Omarion Hampton's running lanes.
Steve Weish projects Omarion Hampton as a breakout player with the Chargers. Hampton is explosive but missed eight games last year with an ankle injury; in 156 touches he had 737 yards and five touchdowns. With Mike McDaniels' outside zone running scheme and Justin Herbert in a moving pocket, Hampton will have lanes to run through and could become a Pro Bowl running back.
John Franklin Myers is part of the improved defensive talent around Cam Ward on the Titans, supporting the team's overall improvement.
Jermaine Johnson is part of the improved defensive talent around Cam Ward on the Titans, supporting the team's overall improvement.
Daniel Bellinger is part of the improved offensive talent around Cam Ward on the Titans, supporting Ward's breakout potential.
Carnell Tate, the fourth overall pick, is part of the improved talent around Cam Ward on the Titans, supporting Ward's breakout potential.
Mark Ross projects Cam Ward as the season's breakout player, comparing the Titans' situation to the Patriots last year when Drake May took a leap from year one struggles to MVP candidate in year two. Ward now has more talent around him including Carnell Tate (4th pick), Wanda Robinson, and Daniel Bellinger, plus improved defense. Ross notes Ward showed consistency in the last five games after early-season struggles with vision and accuracy, and his playmaking was evident all year.
Michael Florio loves Ted Hurst from the Sunbelt Conference, drafted by the Buccaneers in the third round, but advises not to reach for him in the fourth round of fantasy drafts. If Hurst makes it to within five picks of his ADP, he should be moved on.
Trey McBride is highlighted as part of an elite tier of tight ends in 2026, supporting the strategy of securing an above-average tight end early rather than waiting.
Michael Florio notes that Brock Bowers could realistically set even more records again this year, highlighting the elite tier of tight ends available in 2026 and the importance of not waiting too long to secure an above-average tight end.
Cynthia Freeland is still all-in on Travion Henderson despite criticism about his vision and performance. She cites his 20+ fantasy points per game average when he had 15+ touches, superior yards per carry on both outside and inside runs, and lower stuffing rate than Ramondre Stevenson. She notes his college pass-blocking and receiving skills are transferable and that he was vocal about the NFL learning curve. Freeland welcomes continued criticism to keep his price down.
Christian Kirk is on the 49ers roster alongside Mike Evans and Ricky Pierce, but Freeland still expects a 49ers rookie receiver to break out under Kyle Shanahan's system.
Mike Evans remains on the 49ers roster alongside Christian Kirk and Ricky Pierce, but Freeland still expects a 49ers rookie receiver to break out under Kyle Shanahan's system.
Makai Lemon is being drafted one spot after Marvin Harrison Jr., despite being a rookie in an uncertain situation, which Michael Florio views as overvaluing unproven talent.
Michael Florio is drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. despite his ADP being one spot ahead of Makai Lemon, a rookie. Florio notes Harrison showed flashes last season including a 94-yard touchdown against Dallas and solid participation throughout, and believes he's worth taking regardless of current circumstances.
Michael Florio is bullish on Kenneth Walker despite price inflation and concerns about Patrick Mahomes' injury recovery. He believes Walker is in a really good position to succeed with Andy Reid's play-calling and the Chiefs' offensive line improvements, making him worth his ADP.
Cynthia Freeland is all-in on Christian McCaffrey despite his injury history, stating she cannot quit him and will draft him early if given a high pick. She believes in his opportunity even with everyone healthy and the expanded 49ers offense.
Woody Marks is expected to have some involvement in the Texans backfield, but Michael Florio believes David Montgomery will dominate the volume.
Michael Florio projects David Montgomery to dominate volume with the Texans and finish as an RB1 despite being priced as a borderline RB2 in drafts. While many expect Woody Marks to be involved, Florio believes Montgomery will command the majority of carries on a team with a fantastic defense that will run the ball heavily.
Raheem Sanders is recommended as a handcuff to Sean Judkins on the Browns, a team that wants to run the football under Todd Monken with an improved offensive line.
Jadarian Price is expected to step up as the complementary back to Zach Charbonnet on the Seahawks, forming a one-two punch in a run-heavy offense under new offensive coordinator Brian Flurry.
Zach Charbonnet is the lead back for the Seahawks with Kenneth Walker gone, but Freeland expects Jadarian Price to step up as a complementary back in a one-two punch approach similar to prior years.
Isaiah Pacheco is stepping into a backup role with the Lions after Kenneth Walker's departure, forming a handcuff pairing with Jameer Gibbs on a team that wants to run the football.
Mike Garofalo projects Miles Garrett to set the NFL sack record with 30 sacks this season after recording 23 last year with the Browns. The reasoning: Garrett will now play for the Rams with a lead, allowing him to hunt sacks in the fourth quarter to close games rather than being behind and facing double/triple teams as he did in Cleveland. Garofalo believes Garrett will be the first defensive player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986 to win NFL MVP.
Miles Garrett will be the first defensive player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986 to win the NFL MVP award. Garrett set the NFL record with 23 sacks last season while with the Browns, often playing from behind and facing double and triple teams. Now with the Rams, he'll play with a lead and can hunt sacks freely, which should elevate his production even further.
Jeremiah Love, despite being drafted fourth overall in 2024, will have fewer rushing yards than Jadarian Price this season due to situation. Arizona finished 31st in rushing last season, the offensive line is not remarkably better, and the quarterback situation is uncertain (Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, or rookie Carson Beck). You can't just insert a running back into an offense and expect immediate production improvement.
Jadarian Price will have more rushing yards this season than fellow 2024 first-round rookie running back Jeremiah Love, despite Love being drafted fourth overall. The difference is situation: Arizona finished 31st in rushing last season and doesn't have a remarkably better offensive line, with uncertainty at quarterback (Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, or rookie Carson Beck). Seattle, the defending Super Bowl champion, has Sam Darnold playing at MVP level, one of the nastiest defenses in the league, and other offensive options like Jackson Smith-Njigba, which means Price won't be the focus. Marcus Freeman noted Price would have been more highly regarded if he'd been a number-one at another college with the backfield to himself; opportunity plus scheme favors Price.
Jaylen Waddle and Pat Surtain are close friends and best friends who will go at each other every day in practice—good against good—which can help each other improve. This daily competition in training camp is a storyline to watch as the Broncos offense develops chemistry.
Jaden Daniels enters training camp with a mission to remind people who he truly is after an injury-plagued year two; he wasn't in ESPN's top-10 quarterbacks voted by coaches and executives, not because of talent but because they can't trust him to stay on the field. New offensive coordinator David Blau's main mission is keeping Daniels healthy through more shotgun, bootlegs, play action, and keeping him in the pocket while using his legs safely. Daniels only played seven games last year, and people in Washington want more urgency from him in pre-snap and post-snap progressions. The big question is whether he can find a second weapon outside Terry McLaurin, with speculation about Stefan Diggs or Brandon Ayuk.
Jalen Waddle is going into fourth and fifth rounds in many drafts and represents strong value; he's excellent in intermediate routes and stopping-and-going, and his speed is elite—something the Broncos have lacked for years. Waddle was frustrated being stuck behind Tyreek Hill in Miami and gets a true number-one opportunity in Denver. He will help open up the run game and Cortland Sutton. Cam Wolf believes Waddle-to-Denver could be the most impactful trade of the offseason, more so than A.J. Brown to the Patriots. Waddle and Pat Surtain are close friends and best friends who will compete against each other daily in practice.
Bo Nix will be at full health going into training camp for the Broncos, a key storyline as he gets more work with top additions like Jalen Waddle. The Broncos' offense lacked explosiveness for a couple of years, and Nix identified that as an element they've needed. If Nix stays healthy, the chemistry with Waddle can help the Broncos offense take a significant step forward.
Daniel Jones was medically cleared after surgery on his torn Achilles tendon sustained in December, with the announcement coming 15 days before veterans report for Indianapolis. Jones stated he has hit milestones pre-minicamp and can do everything, though he's still thinking about the Achilles during training and recovery. The Colts invested a two-year, $88 million extension in him with the expectation he'd be back week one; the timeline appears on track. Training camp will likely feature measured integration with seven-on-seven drills initially and limited 11-on-11 work with pads to keep him away from traffic, with Anthony Richardson and Riley Cooper likely getting more preseason reps.
Aaron Donald seen working out at the Rams facility doing football-related drills with pads on, not just lifting weights; this signals serious consideration of a comeback after retiring in 2023. The Rams would love to have him back if they can work out a contract friendly enough to get Puka Nakua done; he could be rotational given his weight (260-265 lbs for defensive tackle) and might not play 80% of snaps, but would still be a formidable rotational player. Donald doesn't need training camp given his conditioning history and may not announce a firm decision until closer to the season.
Saquon Barkley is included in a seven-man tier with other running backs, positioned as a mid-tier option in the running back rankings.
Kenneth Walker is included in a seven-man tier with other running backs, positioned as a mid-tier option in the running back rankings.
Chase Brown is included in a seven-man tier with other running backs, positioned as a mid-tier option in the running back rankings.
Devon Achane is positioned in a tier with elite running backs and is expected to be a first-round caliber player in fantasy drafts.
Kyle Pitts' target share could be negatively impacted if rookie Zachariah Branch becomes the second or third target option for the Falcons, as projected by the team's beat writer.
Rookie wide receiver Zachariah Branch could be top three in targets for the Falcons, potentially second in targets, which could hurt Kyle Pitts' target share if the projection holds true.
Bijan Robinson had 103 targets last year with a career-high target per carry rate, but his target volume could decline under the new Stefanski offense, which is less geared toward throwing to running backs compared to his previous system.
Christian McCaffrey is positioned as a tier-one elite running back alongside Jonathan Taylor, with both averaging over 20 PPR fantasy points per game last year.
Jonathan Taylor was the number one running back per game in non-PPR and number two per game in half-PPR last year, with projections showing he is 2.5 points higher per game than James Cook this year.
James Cook led the NFL in rushing yards last year and is positioned as a potential first-round running back with upside if he gets more involved in the passing game.
Godwin could potentially rebound and split targets with Emeka Egbuka in Tampa Bay, creating uncertainty around Egbuka's target share.
Golden's yards per route run of 1.5 is not terrible but not great, serving as a comparison point for Emeka Egbuka's superior 1.8-1.9 range.
Waddle is preferred over Emeka Egbuka at their respective price points in the draft.
Egbuka's 1.75 yards per route run is much stronger than comparable receivers like Matthew Golden, indicating solid efficiency as a rookie.
Egbuka posted 1.8-1.9 yards per route run as a rookie, which pushes into the 80th percentile, and accumulated around 1,000 receiving yards as a first-round pick, both extremely positive indicators for a rookie.
There is a second year breakout case for Egbuka as a first-round pick who showed strong efficiency metrics as a rookie.
Egbuka is preferred less than Jaylen Waddle at his current expensive price point, though the decision may not come up in drafts due to Egbuka's high cost.
Egbuka is likely the number one receiver in Tampa Bay, but there's uncertainty around whether Chris Godwin could rebound and split targets, creating more ambiguity than Terrace Marshall McMillan's clear target dominator role in Carolina.
Adam Hurst could do some things in Carolina's offense but would be lucky to be the number three target, indicating limited target competition for Terrace Marshall McMillan.
There is a case that Chris Godwin could rebound and potentially split targets with Emeka Egbuka in Tampa Bay, creating some uncertainty about Egbuka's target dominance.
Matthew Golden's yards per route run of 1.5 is used as a comparison point, showing it's not terrible but not great, and is lower than Egbuka's 1.8-1.9 range.
The analyst prefers Jaylen Waddle over Emeka Egbuka at their respective price points.
Egbuka's rookie season raw numbers of around 1,000 yards combined with strong yards per route run efficiency (1.75) and first-round pedigree are positive indicators that he did what we expect a first-round pick to do.
There is a second year breakout case for Egbuka as a first-round rookie who achieved 1.8-1.9 yards per route run (80th percentile) and around 1,000 receiving yards, showing strong efficiency indicators.
Egbuka is overpriced in the market and should be viewed as a 4-5 turn upside swing rather than a 3-4 turn pick, making him less attractive than alternatives like Terrace Marshall McMillan.
Chris Rodriguez missed the offseason program due to a foot injury that caused him to miss about a month of time, which is concerning for a player with limited guaranteed money and a history of being cut multiple times.
The analyst is excited about Tuten and doesn't want to fade him, noting he could emerge as a second-year Antonio Gibson-type breakout candidate.
Tuten is one of the analyst's higher-drafted running backs and represents good value as a fifth-round pick around the 100th overall pick.
Tuten has a clear path to significant production in a Chase Brown-like role, with great success rate, explosive 4.32 speed, excellent tackle-breaking ability, and strong breakaway potential from college.
Aaron Jones turns 32 later this year, which contextualizes his expected role reduction.
Aaron Jones is expected to be in a much more limited role than last season, with reporting suggesting he'll get around 8-9 touches per week.
At his round 11 ADP, Mason has league-winning potential as a locked-in RB2 who can be trusted every week to provide touchdowns and weekly value.
Mason is set up even better this season than last year, with the team investing heavily in him in free agency and establishing him as their short yardage back.
Mason's composite ADP is RB42, but the analyst ranks him RB37, indicating he has more upside than other running backs going around him at his ADP.
Jordan Mason is the clear-cut starting running back who will handle the bulk of early down work, mix in for receptions, and have all of the touchdowns.
Njoku around round 18 is a best ball pick with upside given the Chargers' offensive potential.
Harris around round 17 is a best ball pick with upside given the Chargers' offensive potential.
Johnston in rounds 8-9 is a worthwhile shot given the Chargers' offensive upside and multiple league-winner potential.
McConkey in round four is described as an exceptional pick and a great value given the Chargers' offensive upside.
Mitchell in round 13 offers exceptional value given the potential upside of the Chargers offense and his late ADP.
Herbert is projected to have a great season under Mike McDaniel and will likely set a career high in yards per pass attempt, with the efficiency gains flowing to all Chargers skill players.
Michael Pittman's odds of outproducing DK Metcalf this year in Pittsburgh are pretty close, suggesting comparable fantasy output expectations.
If Pittsburgh's aging defense doesn't hold up and the team has to play catch-up, Michael Pittman could absolutely eat and produce significant fantasy points.
Michael Pittman could easily walk into 80 catches this year with Aaron Rodgers, and the odds should be pretty close to him outproducing DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh.
Michael Pittman is a perfect fit for Aaron Rodgers' quick-hitting, spread-out offense. He ran high-frequency routes (flats, curls, quick hitches, slants, in-breakers, screens) as a Z receiver with the Colts that align perfectly with Rodgers' point-and-shoot style.
Despite his struggles, Brian Thomas Jr. is a player who could be special in the NFL and can and likely will turn it around.
As a rookie in 2024, he took 56% of his sample snaps on the line of scrimmage and 73% of his sample snaps outside, frequently lined up as a Z receiver and given a lot of layup targets.
As a rookie, he dropped just 1.4% of his sample targets with a 75% contested catch rate, but drops became a loud issue in his struggles.
He was really banged up throughout the course of last season, which contributed to his struggles.
Everything in regards to BTJ's 2025 was a little bit of a disaster, with a massive step back in nearly every route run statistically.
Patrick Mahomes is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice to potentially finish in the top five if he has a strong passing season.
Daniel Jones was the only drafted quarterback among those with three or more rushing points per game entering 2020 who did not have a really good season, breaking the pattern of predictability.
Deshaun Watson was one of only three drafted quarterbacks coming into the 2020 season with five or more points per game via rushing, and the market did a good job putting him up top.
Matthew Stafford demonstrated that pocket passers in good environments can still thrive and hit their ceiling in fantasy football, as evidenced by his outlier MVP season last year.
Matthew Stafford's MVP season and crazy touchdown rate season have resulted in a far lower ADP than he would have received six to eight years ago, as the market has become smarter about regression.
Kyler Murray is identified as a quarterback who could break fantasy football if things go his way due to his crazy ceiling thanks to rushing juice.
Bo Nix is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.
Drake May was added to the quarterback mix as a borderline studly quarterback last year, contributing to the shift in quarterback predictability and the influx of rushing quarterback talent.
Jayden Daniels was added to the quarterback mix as a borderline studly quarterback in recent years, contributing to the shift in quarterback predictability and the influx of rushing quarterback talent.
Caleb Williams is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.
Brock Purdy is cited as one of the recent quarterbacks who has done a lot with his legs in recent years and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.
Malik Willis is identified as a quarterback who could break fantasy football if things go his way due to his crazy ceiling thanks to rushing juice.
Justin Fields is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who got a lot of starts and provides rushing production.
Trevor Lawrence is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, and is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice for a top-five finish.
Justin Herbert is identified as a second-tier quarterback with enough rushing juice to potentially finish in the top five if he has a strong passing season.
Joe Burrow is cited as one of the recent quarterback prospects entering the league since 2020 who provides rushing production, making him more predictable in fantasy football despite being primarily a pocket passer.
Jalen Hurts is identified as one of the elite rushing quarterbacks whose mobility has made early quarterback drafting more appealing as an alternative to late-round strategy.
Josh Allen is cited as one of the elite rushing quarterbacks whose mobility has made it more appealing to draft quarterbacks early rather than relying solely on late-round quarterback strategy.
Ryan Tannehill's 2019 season demonstrated that strong quarterback performances no longer automatically catapult a player's draft cost into the top 10 the following year, as the market has become smarter about regression and rushing production.
Lamar Jackson's 2019 MVP season was a watershed moment that fundamentally changed how the fantasy football market values quarterback rushing production, making mobile quarterbacks more predictable and valuable in fantasy football.
The hosts are lower on Christian McCaffrey compared to consensus, primarily due to age considerations in dynasty rankings, though they remain generally bullish on him as a player.
The hosts are lower on AJ Brown compared to consensus, primarily due to age considerations in dynasty rankings, though they remain generally bullish on him as a player.
The hosts are lower on Saquon Barkley compared to consensus, primarily due to age considerations in dynasty rankings, though they remain generally bullish on him as a player.
Parker Washington has become Shev's preferred Jaguars receiver target over Brian Thomas Jr., suggesting he sees more upside in Washington's role and development.
Shev has significantly downgraded Brian Thomas Jr., ranking him 107th compared to Casey and Jeremiah at 64 and 70, because he went to see a slot receiver and can no longer get excited about Thomas.
Woody Marks is viewed as a backup-level running back in the 20-25 range, unable to compete with David Montgomery for the primary bell cow role in Houston.
Nick Chubb couldn't replicate his previous elite production in Houston, making David Montgomery the preferred bell cow option for the Texans offense.
Jaden Higgins is a strong rebuild target because David Montgomery's arrival in Houston will create a ripple effect throughout the Texans offense, providing more scoring opportunities for receivers.
Joe Mixon was the RB1 overall in points per game for the first 12 weeks of the 2024 season after the Cowboys game, demonstrating that Houston can support an elite bell cow running back.
For competing teams in 2025, David Montgomery is a strong piece that can be acquired for a 2nd round pick, offering immediate RB production to help a team win now.
David Montgomery's dynasty value is severely limited because his production is only valuable to a finite number of competing teams, making him difficult to trade if circumstances change.
While the hosts like David Montgomery as a player and would trade a 2nd round pick for him in redraft, his dynasty value is limited by age and the short window of elite production remaining.
The hosts are 19 spots below crowdsource consensus on David Montgomery, viewing his current ADP around 9th round as aggressive for a 29-year-old running back with limited long-term dynasty value.
One host sees a potential Daniel Jones 2.0 revival path for Kyler Murray in 2026, suggesting a long-term bounce-back trajectory if he can stay healthy and engaged.
Despite ranking concerns, Kyler Murray can be acquired late in startups and offers value as a QB2 or QB3 alongside elite receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Casey notes that Kyler Murray's success depends on whether he wants to perform, and while the ecosystem and coaching staff are optimal, there's uncertainty about his motivation and willingness to execute.
Shev expresses strong negativity on Kyler Murray, stating 'He stinks and I hate him' and declaring he's done with the Kyler Murray business, indicating a fade on the quarterback.
The hosts are 17 points below consensus on Kyler Murray, with Shev at 125, Casey at 94, and Jeremiah at 104, indicating significant skepticism about his dynasty value despite recent optimism.
Tucker Kraft is mentioned as a Packers weapon that ranks favorably compared to Houston's receiving options, indicating he's viewed as a valuable piece in Green Bay's offense.
Nico Collins is viewed as a superior weapon compared to Houston's receiving options, with the hosts preferring the Packers' overall receiving corps over what the Texans have in their offense.
One host believes Christian Watson is overvalued in current rankings and would have been his third overvalued asset if discussed in detail, suggesting he's ranked higher than warranted.
Christian Watson's hamstring injuries are a recurring concern that limits his availability and upside, with the hosts noting his hamstrings 'don't like football' and preventing him from being a reliable weapon.
Casey prefers CJ Stroud over Jordan Love because he believes there's a bigger bounce-back potential for Stroud, whereas Love may not return to steady QB1 status.
The hosts are 17 points higher than consensus on CJ Stroud, viewing him with more excitement and optimism about a potential bounce-back compared to Jordan Love, despite similar recent performance.
Jeremiah views Jordan Love as a mid QB2 with limited upside, preferring other options like Dak Prescott, Tyler Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Cam Newton, ranking him as QB18 with no room for him in his top tier.
After a QB5 rookie season, Jordan Love has regressed to QB18 and QB15 finishes, establishing a pattern of mid-tier QB2 performance that the hosts view as overvalued at current ADP.
The hosts are 12 spots lower than crowdsource consensus on Jordan Love in super flex, tight end premium rankings, with Shev at 58, Casey at 62, and Jeremiah at 74, indicating skepticism about his dynasty value.
The analyst ranks Jordan Love 12 spots lower than crowdsource in Super Flex, Tight End Premium scoring, with individual rankings ranging from 58-74.
Jalen Milrow is described as 'a great stash to have' and 'a tournament play in best ball tournaments for Super Flex,' suggesting he has value as a late-round pick.
Rashad Penny is referenced as a cautionary tale, suggesting Jadarian Price could follow a similar trajectory of being drafted early but not panning out.
George Helani is expected to be primarily a special teamer and not a significant factor in the Seahawks offense.
Emmanuel Wilson received some money from the Seahawks and could be a factor in the backfield, competing with Jadarian Price for touches.
If Zach Charbonnet is healthy, he will be a part of the Seahawks offense, potentially limiting Jadarian Price's role and touches.
Javante Williams is presented as a safer alternative to Jadarian Price in the same range, with the analyst preferring him in the 'high octane Cowboys offense.'
The analyst ranks Jadarian Price at RB 20 versus crowdsource at RB 18, but considers him overvalued and similar to Javante Williams. Price is 'hyperinflated' in the 2024 rookie class and lacks the ceiling of other options in that range.
Travis Etienne caught roughly 30 passes this year, but Jacksonville was 30th in target percentage to running backs, limiting his pass-catching utility.
Kareem Hunt is mentioned as having a similar 1.2% explosive run rate to Bejal Tooting, tied for the lowest among running backs with 80 carries.
The analyst prefers Chris Rodriguez over Bejal Tooting because he's much cheaper and fits the Jaguars' run-heavy system better, with the team being 6th in inside-the-five attempts.
Devonta Smith is mentioned as a receiver ranked ahead of Jalen Waddle in the analyst's rankings.
The analyst is 'very high on Jalen Waddle this year' and has him ranked after Lad McConkie, seeing a scenario where he could have a 'pure run out' with AJ Brown out of the way.
Trey Harris is mentioned as a player the Chargers invested capital in and like, who will receive some role in the offense, potentially competing for targets with Lad McConkie.
Rondé Gadsden is mentioned as another pass-catching option in the Chargers offense who could receive some targets.
The speaker references Colston Loveland as an example of a player whose value is uncertain due to questions about whether he'll be the bonafide number one target in his offense, similar to concerns about Lad McConkie.
Similar to James Connor, Pacheco faces uncertainty about his role due to backfield depth, with the speaker suggesting someone will lose touches in a crowded running back situation.
The speaker suggests James Connor may lose touches due to Dallas having too many running backs competing for carries, with Jerry Jones needing to 'cut the pie' and potentially not having enough volume for Connor.
Preferred over Javante Williams at current ADP, offering better value in startup drafts.
Preferred over Javante Williams at current ADP, offering better value in startup drafts.
Preferred over Javante Williams at current ADP, offering better value in startup drafts.
Previously favored over Javante Williams by analyst before reconsidering the value of Javante's safety and volume.
Could potentially reunite with Clayton Adams in Dallas, creating a potential committee situation that could impact other running backs' value.
Not preferred over Javante Williams at current ADP, suggesting overvaluation relative to other available options.
Preferred over Javante Williams at current ADP, offering better value and upside potential.
Better pass-catching running back than Javante Williams, offering more upside in PPR formats and better value at his ADP.
One of the least efficient pass-catching running backs in recent memory with terrible 40-50 catch seasons, limiting his upside in PPR formats.
His value is only going down when the 2027 running back class hits, with no upside movement expected in the coming years.
Ranked 143rd in EPA at negative 21.5 and 30th in yards created per touch, indicating poor efficiency metrics that don't support his current valuation.
Overvalued at current ADP, going around players like Sam Laporta, T. Higgins, Makai Lemon, and Cam Scadabo who offer better value at their respective positions.
Similar to Colston Loveland, if Brock Bowers doesn't hit his ceiling as a top-three tight end, the investment sinks you for the year despite no fault of his own.
Could potentially outperform Colston Loveland despite being in a worse offensive situation, with potential for 900+ yards and multiple touchdowns.
Represents a safer value alternative to Colston Loveland, available two rounds later with significantly less risk while maintaining upside potential.
Mentioned as a potential tier-down alternative to Colston Loveland, offering similar upside with less risk and better value two rounds later in drafts.
If he doesn't hit tight end three or better, there's significant downside risk given his current valuation, similar to how Jackson Dart was overpriced relative to alternatives.
Risk that Roma Dunze becomes the alpha receiver in the Bears offense, as Dunze had the best draft capital of all pass catchers and was averaging 19 points per game early in the season.
Had lower route participation at 64.9% compared to AJ Barnard, raising concerns about whether his dominant half-season performance will sustain.
Already priced as tight end three in dynasty despite only a 17% target share in his dominant stretch and 37% TD rate, with risk he finishes as tight end nine if he doesn't hit his ceiling outcome.
The analyst likes Lad McConkey and considered drafting him, noting he plays a similar role to Luke McCaffrey but hasn't had the same breakthrough season; however, they express concern that a lot could go wrong and note he already has a strained hamstring.
Quarterback option the analyst is considering as a potential late-round target, though they acknowledge he will likely be gone before their pick.
Quarterback option that would have been available as a value play if Justin Herbert had not been available.
Quarterback option that would have been available as a fallback value play if Justin Herbert had not been available.
The analyst prioritized Justin Herbert as a quarterback option and successfully secured him, which validated their strategy of taking Gibbs early to ensure access to quality QB options.
The analyst has been comfortable drafting Gino Smith in previous drafts as part of their late-round quarterback strategy.
Quarterback the analyst is comfortable settling for if Kyler Murray is not available, as part of their late-round QB strategy.
Quarterback the analyst is hoping will fall to them late in the draft as part of their strategy to wait on the position.
Running back option the analyst is hoping will be available in the draft, expressing preference for him over Derek Henry as a target.
The analyst believes Josh Jacobs should be drafted with confidence as a running back option, noting that the lack of recent information about his legal situation is a positive sign and that others are still slow to process this, potentially driving his ADP down from sixth to seventh or eighth round.
Running back option available in the draft that the analyst is considering as part of their strategy to secure a strong RB after taking Kyle Pitts.
The analyst believes Kyle Pitts is the key to their draft strategy, planning to take him at tight end and then pivot to running back in the next round.
Late-round wide receiver option that the analyst likes and wants to target in the draft.
Late-round wide receiver option that the analyst likes and wants to target in the draft.
Late-round wide receiver option that the analyst likes and wants to target in the draft.
DeAndre Swift is the incumbent running back in Chicago that Kyle Mononga Guy would need to overtake to become a featured back.
Makai Lemon was put on the block by his owner and is worth a first-round pick, though in the 2027 first class the value becomes more even around the mid-first range, making a Kyle Mononga guy plus second-round pick offer reasonable.
Michael Mayer is available on the waiver wire and is a target to improve the tight end position, which is weak on the roster.
Christian Watson is on the bench of the roster.
Darren Waller is listed as a tight end on the roster in a tight end premium league.
Terry McLaurin is on the roster as a wide receiver.
Javante Williams is on the roster as a running back alongside Derek Henry.
Jalen Hurts is the quarterback on the roster and the reason the team is interested in acquiring Makai Lemon as a complementary receiver.
O'Marrion Hampton benefits from ancillary speed and supporting pieces on the Chargers offense that help take heat off defenders.
Keaton Mitchell helps the ancillary speed on the Chargers and supports top receivers like Lab McConkey and Ronda Gadsden.
If Spencer Brown stays healthy, the right side with him and Torrance at their best would be elite, comparable to the Philadelphia Eagles' Super Bowl run right side.
Rashad Bateman is mentioned as a potential option to step up and hold defenders accountable in the passing game to help funnel targets to Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews.
Elijah Surratt is getting good buzz and serves as a quality ancillary piece in the Ravens offense that helps take heat off defenders and supports the top receivers.
Right tackle Spencer Brown has been banged up this offseason, raising concerns about the right side of the offensive line.
Veteran guard Austin Corbett was signed from the Panthers to compete for the left guard position.
When Alec Anderson played left tackle for Spencer Brown last year, he had one of the best games any Bills offensive lineman had all season, demonstrating his capability.
Alec Anderson, a long-time jumbo tight end who can play all five positions, will likely get the opportunity to take over at left guard after David Edwards departed.
Left guard David Edwards, one of the Bills' best offensive linemen over the last couple of years, was allowed to leave in free agency to the New Orleans Saints.
Mark Andrews is part of an upgraded Ravens offense with a healthy Lamar Jackson and improved offensive line, positioning him for increased production.
Zay Flowers went over 1,200 receiving yards without a healthy Lamar Jackson for the full season, and with upgrades to the Ravens' offensive line and a healthy Lamar Jackson, his production should increase significantly.
Jalen Wright is competing with Ollie Gordon for the starting running back role; there is an argument that Wright played better at the end of last season, but Gordon's college pedigree and all-purpose skill set give him the edge.
Center Connor McGovern was re-signed for big money to keep the center spot solidified with his relationship with Josh Allen.
Left tackle Deion Dawkins was critical for taking a ton of penalties when left on an island, and gave up sacks last year, contributing to Josh Allen getting hit more frequently.
Ollie Gordon is a 2,000-yard college rusher at 220 pounds with complete all-purpose skill sets comparable to Tyler Algier, and is one of fewer than 10 RB2s in the NFL who could conceivably become true bell cows, though he must first beat out Jalen Wright.
Derrick Henry produced 1500-1600 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last year with no drop-off, and his age 32-33 seasons could be big, especially with a healthy Lamar Jackson this year.
Chase Brown was traded away in a deal where the other team clearly wanted him, indicating he was overvalued relative to what was received (Derrick Henry, Ollie Gordon, 2027 first, 2028 second for Chase Brown and Tajay Spears).
Josh Allen took significantly more sacks in 2025 compared to 2024 when he set a career best with only 14 sacks, representing a notable step back in pass protection.
Hawes is the modern version of Dawson Knox—great in the run game and potentially even better than Knox in that area—and could end up stealing touchdowns from Kincaid.
Jackson Hawes was a lucky fifth-round draft pick who could have been a second-round pick in 2026 given the league's shift to three tight ends; he is excellent in the run game and showcases catching ability.
Dawson Knox is the ever-present security blanket in the offense who will continue to steal some touchdowns from Kincaid, and is typically utilized when Kincaid is banged up or unavailable.
If Kincaid can finally get over the health hump and stay on the field, he could end up being the receiving leader and fulfill his draft role as a Travis Kelce-type player.
Kincaid has been putting in significant work in the gym this offseason with visible physical improvements, and when healthy he is "as good as anybody in the league," with potential to be the receiving leader and take the offense to another level.
Kincaid decided against knee surgery on the same knee that has been an issue for two or three seasons, instead opting to continue strengthening it through the offseason program.
Kincaid's yards per catch have improved each season and reached career highs last year; if his rookie year receptions are multiplied by last year's yards per catch, he would project to nearly 1,100 yards.
If Bell makes it through training camp fully healthy and plays in every preseason game, his stock will rise significantly for year one impact.
If Bell suffers any setbacks during training camp, analyst will be hesitant to predict any grand year one impact, as missing time in camp would put him behind the eight ball.
Bell was held out of minicamp with a wrap on his left leg and did not practice, with uncertainty about whether it's a quad issue or precautionary, but all sides point to him being ready for day one of training camp.
Bell suffered a quadriceps injury at the Senior Bowl during practice and had a shaky rookie camp performance with three drops, raising durability concerns for his first year.
Analyst is "super high" on Skylar Bell, praising his college production at UConn where opposing defenses knew to stop him but he still torched them, and noting he can be used all over the formation in the Bills offense.
Analyst is betting on Keon Coleman having a big year three after working with Stevie Johnson this offseason to develop new route-running tricks, stating "I'm betting on him doing it, and I'm betting on it with my opinion, not any cash."
Jake states there is no credible scenario where Khalil Shakir reaches top-15 wide receiver status, explicitly saying 'don't draft him.'
Discussed as a potential narrative play where if other running backs underperform, Singleton could take over the backfield due to talent or injury to competitors.
Used as an example in a narrative-building exercise where Jacoby Myers could see increased opportunity if Thomas gets injured.
If healthy at 100%, Brooks would likely take over the backfield due to his talent, representing a credible narrative for late-round upside.
Host uses Lamar Jackson as an example of a player worth targeting in draft if you have conviction, noting he would want to have Lamar in one of his leagues as a Ravens fan.
Jefferson's season was negatively impacted by poor quarterback play from JJ McCarthy last year, illustrating how quarterback quality affects receiver production.
Brown is used as an example when discussing whether to stack multiple players from the same offense; if already drafted, the question becomes whether to add another Bengal.
Hurts is mentioned as a potential tier-one quarterback option (possibly QB5 or QB6) if there's value at that ADP; could be taken in round 5-6 depending on league tendencies.
Herbert is available late (7th-9th round) as a quarterback option with value if top-tier quarterbacks are taken early.
Lawrence is highlighted as a late-round quarterback option with value; was QB1 or QB2 in the second half of last season.
Stafford is mentioned as a late-round quarterback option who was awesome last year; available late with upside.
Prescott is available as QB10, providing value as a top-tier quarterback option without needing to reach early.
Ward is mentioned as a late-round quarterback option (QB24) in year two with upside potential; going late enough to provide value.
Willis is highlighted as a late-round quarterback option (QB21) with rushing upside; going outside the top 90 in ADP provides excellent value.
Love is highlighted as a late-round quarterback option with history of top-12 production; going outside the top 90 in ADP.
Mayfield is listed as a late-round quarterback option (QB19) with history of top-12 production; going outside the top 90 in ADP provides excellent value.
Nix is highlighted as a late-round quarterback with upside; going outside the top 90 in ADP with either history of production or rushing upside to carry him into the top 7-12 quarterbacks.
Purdy is listed as a late-round quarterback option (QB12) with history of top-12 production or rushing upside; going outside the top 90 in ADP provides excellent value.
Brooks is liked as a mid-RB3 at his current ADP, but the analyst would be out if his ADP climbs to RB20 due to hype-driven risk inflation.
Ferguson is liked because he's going late with minimal hype, meaning you're not buying inflated ADP risk; if he hits, it's a bonus rather than a requirement.
Williams is used as an example of a player whose ADP has climbed due to group think and hype; by August he could be a seventh-round pick, meaning you're buying all the risk and he needs to hit his ceiling just to get equitable value.
Washington is mentioned as a middle-round upside swing candidate with flashes shown but hasn't put together a full season; if upside hits, he can be a difference maker.
Tate is highlighted as a middle-round upside swing candidate who could be a clear wide receiver one; has shown flashes but hasn't put together a full season yet.
Watson is highlighted as a middle-round upside swing candidate who has shown flashes but hasn't put together a full season yet; if his upside hits, he can be a difference maker in your lineup.
Jake Seeley mentions Terrence Ferguson as a deep sleeper for the Rams where there's a world he ends up getting the third most targets for the team.
Jake Seeley is now willing to invest in Dalton Kincaid after avoiding him the past two years, as he stays healthy and the Bills offense potentially changes.
Ryan Warmly loves Mark Andrews this year as a late-round tight end target outside the top 12 at the position.
Derek Brown loves Greg Dulcich as a late-round tight end target, and Jake Seeley also mentions him as a deep sleeper worth considering.
Derek Brown loves Jake Ferguson as a late-round tight end target, positioning him as an undervalued option.
Derek Brown and Ryan Warmly both like Dallas Goedert as a late-round tight end target outside the top 12 at the position.
Derek Brown loves Isaiah Likely as a late-round tight end target, and Jake Seeley has him ranked as a top-10 tight end despite his current ADP.
Derek Brown avoids the middle-class of tight ends including Sam Laporta, preferring to either get elite options early or punt to late-round targets.
Derek Brown avoids the middle-class of tight ends including Kyle Pitts, preferring to either get elite options early or punt to late-round targets.
Derek Brown avoids the middle-class of tight ends including Tucker Kraft, who is coming off an ACL injury.
Derek Brown is out on Trey McBride at his current ADP (21st overall), preferring to pay up for Brock Bowers instead due to concerns about McBride's variance and the likelihood of repeating his outlier 2024 production.
Derek Brown identifies Tyler Warren as one of three tight ends (alongside Bowers and Loveland) he considers true league-winning difference makers, available in the fourth or fifth round.
Derek Brown identifies Colston Loveland as one of three tight ends (alongside Bowers and Warren) he considers true league-winning difference makers in the early rounds.
Ryan Warmly believes Brock Bowers will return first-round value this year and could be one of the defining players of fantasy this season, with the Raiders expected to pepper him with targets.
Ryan Warmly states he will not be drafting George Kittle at tight end ten, avoiding the middle-tier tight end pricing.
Ryan Warmly states he will not be drafting Travis Kelce at tight end nine, avoiding the middle-tier tight end pricing.
Derek Brown targets Bijan Robinson (Basial Tootin) in round five as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Derek Brown targets DeAndre Swift in round five as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Derek Brown targets David Montgomery in round four as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Derek Brown targets Cam Akers (Scadaboo) in round four as a running back option when building a flexible early-round strategy.
Derek Brown targets Javante Williams in round three as a running back to catch up on if starting with two wide receivers, positioning him as a value option in that range.
Derek Brown targets Breece Hall in round three as a running back to catch up on if starting with two wide receivers, positioning him as a value option in that range.
Mike Evans in 2024 was an X receiver with 85% snap rate and 72% outside rate, but only ran go routes on 12% of his charted routes, compared to Brian Thomas Jr. who ran go routes on 22% of his charted routes.
Baker Mayfield had a combative and intense relationship with head coach Liam Cohen, similar to Cohen's dynamic with Trevor Lawrence, though Mayfield is described as a more naturally intense person.
Trevor Lawrence had intense sideline exchanges with head coach Liam Cohen, with Cohen hitting his chest during interactions, reflecting a combative and intense coaching relationship.
Travis Hunter received gadgety screen route usage early in his rookie season with the Jaguars, which may have been overused as an approach to ease him into the offense.
Jakobi Meyers is characterized as a high-quality player but lacks the ceiling to be a special player compared to Brian Thomas Jr.
Parker Washington is characterized as a high-quality player but lacks the ceiling to be a special player compared to Brian Thomas Jr.
The analyst believes Brian Thomas Jr. can and likely will turn it around from his 2024 struggles, suggesting the season may be viewed as a flash in the pan rather than a true indication of his talent.
Brian Thomas Jr.'s success rate versus zone coverage in 2024 was a seventh percentile result (below 70%), which is brutal, though he showed better results against press (73.2%, 70th percentile) and man coverage (61st percentile).
Brian Thomas Jr. should theoretically function as an outside-the-numbers demon X receiver type even in the 2024 season where he struggled, and doesn't need to be a screen route specialist like typical X receivers.
The Jaguars attempted to give Brian Thomas Jr. easy looks through screens and gadget plays early in the season, similar to what they did with Travis Hunter, though this approach may have been overused.
If Brian Thomas Jr. can get his mental game right, he has the ceiling to be a special player in the NFL, unlike Parker Washington or Jakobi Meyers who are high-quality but lack that elite ceiling.
Despite his 2025 struggles, Brian Thomas Jr. has elite ceiling potential and could be a special player in the NFL if he can get right mentally and put it together.
Brian Thomas Jr. reportedly had a rough training camp and struggled with drops, which may have contributed to the Jaguars limiting his role early in the 2025 season.
Brian Thomas Jr. was in space on only 21% of his catches in 2025, down sharply from 55% as a rookie, indicating the Jaguars shifted away from designing easy layup targets for him.
Brian Thomas Jr. ran screens on only 0.4% of his routes in 2025, down dramatically from 6.5% as a rookie, despite offensive coordinator Liam Cohen previously highlighting his screen game potential.
Brian Thomas Jr. ran a 9 route on only 13% of his routes as a rookie, but that jumped to 22% in 2025, indicating a shift toward more vertical routes and away from the varied route tree he showed early on.
Gabe Davis served as the sacrificial X receiver for the 2024 Jaguars when healthy, indicating the team's approach to the position.
In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. took 78% of his snaps outside and 79.9% on the ball, essentially functioning as an X receiver only, a significant constraint on his role.
The analyst believes Brian Thomas Jr. can be a better player in isolation in 2026 than he was in 2025, and would be 'shocked' if they don't see improvement from him.
The Jaguars stopped making Brian Thomas Jr. the primary read on many plays, pushing him into a limited role that the analyst believes is the bigger problem for his fantasy outlook.
Trevor Lawrence specifically praised Parker Washington in a scouting report conversation, saying 'this guy has earned his opportunities' and 'he's good,' indicating the quarterback's confidence in him.
Travis Hunter was making big plays from the slot receiver position and F receiver spot before getting hurt, as part of Liam Cohen's offensive scheme to create explosive play opportunities.
When lined up out wide in the early season stretch, Brian Thomas Jr. was targeted on 24% of his routes and averaged 19.5 yards per reception, showing he was an effective big play receiver.
Brian Thomas Jr. averaged only 1.29 yards per route run when lined up out wide from week 10 onward, significantly underperforming Parker Washington (3.1) and Jakobi Meyers (1.77).
Parker Washington was targeted on 24% of his routes when lined up out wide, demonstrating consistent involvement in the Jaguars passing game.
From week 10 onward, Parker Washington averaged 3.1 yards per route run when lined up out wide, significantly outperforming Brian Thomas Jr. (1.29 yards per route run) and Jakobi Meyers (1.77 yards per route run).
Before his injury, Travis Hunter was making big plays from the slot receiver position and F receiver spot, demonstrating his ability to create explosive opportunities in the Jaguars offense.
Travis Hunter got hurt just as he was being ramped up as the primary in-breaking route player for the Jaguars, forcing them to trade for Jacoby Myers.
Parker Washington was targeted on 24% of his routes when lined up out wide and averaged 19.5 yards per reception in that stretch from week 10 onward, showcasing his ability to create explosive plays.
From week 10 onward (after Jacoby Myers trade), Parker Washington averaged 3.1 yards per route run when lined up out wide, significantly outpacing Jacoby Myers (1.77) and BTJ (1.29), establishing himself as a highly effective big play receiver.
Parker Washington played 44% of snaps in the slot and 56% lined up outside last year, averaging an impressive 16 yards per reception when lined up outside.
Parker Washington is expanding his role this offseason and learning the entire route tree, with the team utilizing him more outside the slot than typical.
The hope for BTJ in 2026 and beyond is that he improves from his 69.8% zone coverage success rate, with even getting back to his rookie 77% mark being 'a huge win.'
BTJ's success rate versus zone coverage dropped to 69.8% in year two (from 77% as a rookie), a sub-70% mark rarely seen among established quality starters, and his success rate on slant routes fell to 71.4% with dig routes at just 63%.
BTJ's role was cut back progressively throughout the season as he struggled with zone coverage and in-breaking routes, with the team essentially reducing his involvement rather than benching him outright.
BTJ struggled significantly with drops in his second season, with a 9.1% drop rate that was littered throughout his film—described as 'probably the worst offender' among second-year receivers dealing with this issue.
BTJ's drop issues appear to have gotten in his head and created a waterfall effect throughout his 2025 season, making him probably the worst offender among second-year receivers in this regard.
BTJ's most significant struggle was drops, with an 11.7% drop rate on his sample targets and just 53% catch rate on contested catches (25% contested target rate), compared to 1.4% drop rate and 75% contested catch rate as a rookie.
BTJ's dig route success rate collapsed from 78% in 2024 (his most run route at nearly 19% of his routes) to just 63% in 2025, a 15-point drop-off.
The key question for BTJ is whether he can get back to 2024 form or even improve beyond it, and what his role will look like within the current receiver room.
BTJ dealt with a ton of injuries throughout 2025, including a wrist injury, shoulder injury, and ankle injury, which likely impacted his performance and reception perception metrics.
From a fantasy perspective, the bigger concern for BTJ is almost exclusively about his role with the team and role in the offense.
BTJ's 2025 season was one of the most mystifying developments in wide receiver world, dropping from 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie season to just 707 yards in 14 games.
BTJ experienced a massive step back in nearly every route run statistically in 2025, with his reception perception metrics and counting stats showing a disaster compared to his rookie season.
Malik Washington is a carryover from last year as part of the Texans' weak wide receiver depth chart described as an 'island of misfit toys'.
Terrence Marshall is part of the Texans' weak wide receiver depth chart, described as part of an 'island of misfit toys' with limited target opportunity.
Jaylen Tolbert is part of the Texans' weak wide receiver depth chart described as an 'island of misfit toys' with limited target opportunity.
Malik Washington and Greg Duliba have been the favorite targets of Malik Willis in camp, suggesting strong target opportunity.
Jaden Higgins was the best rookie in fantasy outside the first round last year, demonstrating that elite rookie production can come from later-round picks.
Kenyan Sadiq runs a 4.39 40-yard dash at tight end, which is elite athleticism. The analyst is very bullish on him in Dynasty and actively tried to trade up to acquire him due to long-term upside.
Jake Ferguson runs a 4.82 40-yard dash, which is slower than some comparable tight ends, affecting his ability to separate from defensive backs.
Jake Ferguson runs a 4.82 40-yard dash, which is significantly slower than elite tight end prospects like Kenyan Sadi (4.39), illustrating the athleticism gap that can impact ability to separate from defenders.
Eric Ebron ran 79% of his routes from a wide receiver spot under Frank Reich and scored 13 touchdowns with Andrew Luck, serving as a historical comparison for how tight ends can be utilized in spread offenses.
Mason Taylor could be a league winner if Frank Reich uses him as a slot receiver in 12 personnel packages; if he doesn't produce early, he can be dropped to waivers as a low-cost flier.
Mason Taylor has the fastest 40 time ever for a tight end and arguably the best tight end combine since Vernon Davis, giving him elite athletic tools.
Frank Reich has a history of using big tight ends as slot wide receivers; examples include Zack Z running 70% of routes from wide receiver spot, Antonio Gates at 70%, and Eric Ebron at 79% while scoring 13 touchdowns with Andrew Luck.
Mason Taylor is positioned as the inline tight end for the Jets, but the analyst believes he could be used as a big slot wide receiver type player based on Frank Reich's historical usage patterns with tight ends.
Omar Cooper Jr. is another rookie competing for targets on the Jets alongside Adini Mitchell.
Garrett Wilson is going to be the top target on the Jets team.
Mark Andrews is the clear number two target on the Ravens team, despite the team likely being more run-heavy with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Mark Andrews has not had 90 or more targets since 2022, but he had 90 or more targets in four straight seasons prior to that point and is expected to push close to that range again.
Mark Andrews can be drafted as a backstack shortly after Lamar Jackson, who is at his cheapest ADP ever, making it an attractive pairing strategy.
Mark Andrews is the only tight end in the league besides Travis Kelce with two double-digit touchdown seasons on his resume, and 90 targets is easily within the range of outcomes for him to reach top-five tight end status.
Mark Andrews had 11 touchdowns the year before last and historically has been incredible in man-to-man short area situations, which translates well to red zone equity.
Mark Andrews has seasons where he's run 85% of his routes from a wide receiver spot, which is ideal for fantasy production and could result in 7-9 targets per game similar to how Colson Loveland was used.
Andrews has 11 touchdowns in a previous season and historically excels in man-to-man short area coverage, translating to strong red zone equity with Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens brought in Declan Doyle, signaling they want to run a Ben Johnson-style offense where the tight end is used as a pass-catching weapon from wide receiver spots, similar to how Colston Loveland was used.
The Ravens' offseason was ideal for Andrews' upside: they didn't sign any receivers in free agency and waited to draft two (Jacobe Lane and Elijah Sarat), signaling he'll be the primary pass-catching tight end.
Andrews' yards per route run fell off last year from his historical 2.0 average, and his separation score also declined, likely due to Lamar Jackson's run game dynamics.
Andrews is tied in two unexpected touchdowns over the last two seasons, just behind George Kittle, with strong touchdown upside and a proven mind meld with Lamar Jackson in the red zone.
Andrews was tied in 22% route share over the last two seasons, but in 2021-2022 when he was a league winner, he had an 81% full-time route share that led all tight ends.
The Ravens' offseason moves—not signing receivers and waiting to draft them—suggest Mark Andrews will return to full-time playing time after being split with Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kohler.
Mark Andrews has league-winning upside and top-five tight end potential this season with improved route share and full-time playing time.
Mark Andrews is identified as the number two darkhorse league winner at tight end for 2026 and has a history of being a league winner.
Kincaid gets first reads from the quarterback and is heavily targeted in the red zone, scoring touchdowns when deployed, suggesting significant upside if given more playing time.
Kincaid's efficiency metrics (yards per route run, targets per route run, fantasy points per route run) are elite and rank in the top corner, but he's currently a part-time slot player; the hope is he finally gets a full-time role this year.
Hunter Henry is not escaping defenders and is relying on touchdown opportunities rather than yards after catch like Fannon.
Ferguson had only 600 yards on 100 targets as a top-five tight end, making him one of the least productive top-five tight ends over the last decade besides Robert Tonyan.
Watson's ADP is QB 34 and he only needs to start to blow that ADP out of the water; he's one of the speaker's highest rostered quarterbacks in redraft because of the upside potential if he locks down the starting spot.
Denzel Boston is viewed as a good prospect with size and Drake London comparisons, but analyst expects Fannon to still lead the team in targets despite Boston's addition.
Andrew Barry indicated that Jerry Judy remains the bellcow receiver and part of the Browns' future plan, suggesting Judy and Fannon will be the top two targets on the team.
Despite concerns, analyst admits Deshawn Watson is one of his highest rostered baseball quarterbacks at QB 34 ADP, as he only needs to start and blow that ADP out of the water.
Analyst is not super stoked on Deshawn Watson as the Browns quarterback, citing concerns about the QB room as a limiting factor for tight end production.
Craft excels as a scheme fit for the Jaguars due to his ability to sell play action and screens, and his strength after the catch, but he is not a field stretcher like George Kittle or a route runner like Fannon and Pitts.
Analyst questions Tucker Craft's value in PPR and tight end premium formats, noting his game is built on dump-and-run opportunities rather than route running or field stretching ability.
Analyst has Pitts ranked ahead of Leaporta and depending on format, Tucker Craft, viewing him as a strong value at his current ADP alongside Fannon.
Analyst ranks Fannon ahead of both Kyle Pitts and Leaporta, viewing him as a massive edge pick in the current ADP environment.
Despite increased target competition from Casey Conpsion and Denzel Boston, Fannon is expected to remain the lead target on the Browns, as he has been a target earner at every level he's played.
Fannon has fallen 18 spots in ADP over the last two months, from the low-to-mid 80s in May to well into the 100s, making him an edge pick at his current price.
Fannon's route share is expected to increase significantly from 66% last year to higher levels this season, providing additional volume upside.
Fannon had a true breakout season as a rookie, tied 2nd in targets per route run and tied 4th in first read target share, trailing only Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle.
Analyst projects Fannon will easily get into the top 12 tight ends this season with David Njoku no longer ahead of him on the depth chart.
David Njoku was surpassed by Harold Fannin on the depth chart, with Fannin becoming the lead target in the Texans offense after week one.
Harold Fannin's upside is tempered by uncertainty in the Texans quarterback room, with concerns about both Deshaun Watson and C.J. Stroud.
Harold Fannin is an analytical darling with elite college production (PFF receiving grade leader, yards per route run god) who had a true breakout season, tying for second in targets per route run and fourth in first-read target share.
Tucker Kraft may be the number three target on the Bears offense and is coming off an ACL tear, limiting his upside relative to Kyle Pitts.
Jake Ferguson's fantasy production was highly dependent on target volume; he averaged 17.7 PPR points per game when CeeDee Lamb was out (TE2 production) but only 9.4 PPR points per game when Lamb was healthy (TE20 production).
Sam LaPorta is overpriced relative to his target share outlook, with historical data showing Jameson Williams consistently receives more targets, and LaPorta now dealing with a back injury.
There are concerns that Kyle Pitts may not be penciled in as the number one or number two target on the Falcons, which is historically required for fantasy-relevant tight end production.
Kyle Pitts should be ranked ahead of Sam LaPorta and potentially Tucker Kraft, yet goes 25 picks later in ADP, representing significant value.
Kyle Pitts has a clear path to being a top-two target on the team under new coach Kevin Stefansky, with the tight end role shifting away from in-line blocking schemes that previously limited his usage.
Cooper compares Kyle Pitts' situation to Evan Engram's, noting that Pitts has faced the 'trifecta of tight end excuses'—injuries, poor quarterback play, and schemes that didn't leverage his skill set—but those obstacles are now being removed.
Cooper believes Kyle Pitts' situation has improved significantly with Kevin Stefanski taking over as coach, offering him big slot potential and moving away from the previous scheme that forced him into a blocking role similar to Tyler Higbee.
Andrew Cooper ranks Kyle Pitts as a top-5 tight end (ranked 5) despite him going as a backend tight end 8-9 in ADP, citing his elite athleticism (4:52 40-time, 95th percentile speed) and ability to create chunk plays like George Kittle and Chigoziem Okonkwo.
David Montgomery is no longer with the Detroit Lions, which eliminates volume concerns for Bijan Robinson and makes Jahmyr Gibbs the clear lead back in Detroit.
Bijan Robinson is ranked as RB2 overall and remains a strong draft option despite being ranked below Gibbs, with no volume concerns now that David Montgomery is no longer in Detroit.
Gibbs is preferred over Bijan Robinson in 2026 drafts due to superior scoring upside, with the Detroit Lions having the #1 Vegas implied scoring offense while the Falcons are tied for 24th.
Not viewed as huge threat in Texans backfield; could see increased receiver usage if team taps into him more as a pass-catcher.
Texans have favorable early-season schedule with four matchups in first seven weeks against worst run defenses from last season (Bills, Bengals, Colts, Cowboys, Titans, Jaguars, Giants through week 7); nobody has better early schedule.
Analyst has reversed earlier bullish stance; now views him as a 'dead zone' running back ranked high purely on volume without belief in offensive upside or special talent caliber.
RB21's high ranking; analyst notes you could move him down a few spots without being unreasonable.
Blake Corum would also rank highly among RB2s in terms of upside potential if you removed every RB1 from consideration.
If you remove every RB1 in the league and rank RB2s, Henderson might be RB1 in terms of upside, showing sky-high ceiling potential.
Henderson represents significant upside if you went heavy on wide receivers early and don't have two running backs yet, though the analyst acknowledges it's early to buy an injury-contingent back.
The analyst wonders if the market was a year too early on Henderson; with an improved Patriots offense featuring AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs, an 80% Jalen Gibbs-like role could produce significant fantasy points.
Henderson posted RB7 numbers (17.6 PPR points per game) from weeks 10-18 in 2024, showing his ceiling in the Patriots offense.
In 14 healthy games together with Rondre Stevenson in 2024, Henderson had 158 touches compared to Stevenson's 162, showing a much closer workload split than remembered.
RB21 projection for 2026. Henderson has sky-high upside as a backup to Rondre Stevenson in an offense the analyst loves, with explosive pass-catching skills.
Chris Rodriguez is currently still recovering from an offseason foot injury, which is a concern for his 2025 availability.
Swift posted top-five success rate numbers at the position in 2024, showing major improvement from 2023 thanks to offensive line improvements, Ben Johnson, and Swift's own development.
Swift is perennially disrespected in fantasy and represents good value as a very good option if you load up on wide receivers early in the draft without falling too far behind at running back.
RB19 projection for 2026. Swift is an explosive pass-catching running back in an ascending Bears offense with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams that the analyst loves.
DeAndre Swift is ranked RB19 and has never finished worse than RB24 since entering the NFL; he's an explosive pass-catching back in an ascending Bears offense with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams that is being disrespected in fantasy.
Travis Etienne is ranked RB18 but the analyst has concerns about dead zone vibes due to Alvin Kamara's presence, a weak Saints offense (23rd in implied scoring), and questions about his talent relative to the scheme.