NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Monday, July 6, 2026

Christian Pulisic — straight outta Hershey, PA — went 1-on-1 with Ja'Marr Chase 😆 (via @​NFL)

Iconic NFL plays, just because. Michael Vick ➜ DeSean Jackson for an 88-yard TD on the opening play | 11.15.10

"He's a roster clogger to me." Ryan is all the way out on Michael Wilson 💀 #Cardinals #FantasyFootball Was Michael Wilson's 2025 real, or all garbage time? ➡️ <https://www.youtube.com/live/CCu_VuE9UBA?si=mOwU4WyDIfnXjOp8> @​RyanJ_Heath @​GrahamBarfield

There were 40 wide receivers in the NFL to catch 6 or more deep receptions (20+ air yards) in 2025. Numbers 1 through 38 of that WR list crossed a 60% route share. The two that didn't reach that threshold? 39. Matthew Golden - 59.3% .... **40 JAYLIN NOEL - 36.9% (!)**

Isaiah Bond has had a really impressive spring and summer. He looks noticeably bigger and stronger than he did a year ago without sacrificing any of his speed. What has stood out most to me is how much his route tree has expanded. He’s becoming a much more complete receiver. I’m really looking forward to seeing how that translates when the pads come on at training camp.

Viewed by community as the preferred Jaguars back; 2nd-year player ahead of Rodriguez on depth chart. Multiple comments favor Bigsby over Rodriguez, with some noting Bigsby is 'the most explosive' per Jags camp reporting and should lead the backfield.

Traded away by Jaguars, opening backfield opportunity for Rodriguez and Bigsby.

Signed 2-year, $10M deal ($5M/year) with Jaguars; recovering from ankle surgery; competing with Travis Etienne (traded away), Tank Bigsby, and Anthony McFarland. Article claims Coen (his 2021 Kentucky OC) could give him an important role, but community dismisses this as speculative July journalism with no concrete evidence. Key concern: Rodriguez doesn't catch passes, severely limiting fantasy ceiling even if he gets goal-line work. Bigsby viewed as preferred back. Community sentiment split: some see Rodriguez as potential league-winner if Bigsby gets injured or if he earns goal-line touches; most view him as RB3/backup depth with minimal upside.

Market Monday 🚨 @​adamlevitan addresses the moving price tags on: • Rashid Shaheed (⬆️) • Tony Pollard (⬆️) • Brandon Aiyuk (⬇️) • And more

Market Monday 🚨 @​adamlevitan addresses the moving price tags on: • Rashid Shaheed (⬆️) • Tony Pollard (⬆️) • Brandon Aiyuk (⬇️) • And more

Market Monday 🚨 @​adamlevitan addresses the moving price tags on: • Rashid Shaheed (⬆️) • Tony Pollard (⬆️) • Brandon Aiyuk (⬇️) • And more

ICYMI - we were joined by @​AndyHermanNFL to discuss the Packers offense this coming season Can Christian Watson step up and be the go to WR for Love? 🌐<https://t.ly/74TTG> 🎥<https://t.ly/7d6RA> 🎧<https://t.ly/P69is>

@​CoachspeakIndex lays out the Terrance Ferguson bull case in a way that few have This is exactly how league winners are identified - talent meets athleticism meets coachspeak meets environment

The Cleveland Browns have been mentioned in speculation about the possibility of moving their young quarterback Shedeur Sanders via trade to the Buccaneers. The source notes that Sanders' status in Cleveland is not necessarily shaky but very much up in the air, and that a team like Tampa could theoretically pursue him as a beneficial future option. However, the source ultimately assesses the likelihood of a Shedeur Sanders trade to Tampa Bay as 'likely not very' realistic, though acknowledges the possibility cannot be ruled out entirely.

The Buccaneers have dragged their feet in re-signing quarterback Baker Mayfield this offseason, creating a void in the franchise's quarterback planning beyond the 2026 season. The source frames this delay as the root cause of trade speculation and uncertainty around Tampa Bay's future at the position, suggesting the team lacks a clear plan for the most important position heading into 2026.

New Market Monday up. I discuss if I’m drafting these players at their new prices: * Rashid Shaheed * Brandon Aiyuk * Tony Pollard * Dallas Goedert * Jalen McMillan * Malik Nabers Free here: <https://youtu.be/UdDwLqOsI40?is=ErNdyKvPiRj-oUxU>

New Market Monday up. I discuss if I’m drafting these players at their new prices: * Rashid Shaheed * Brandon Aiyuk * Tony Pollard * Dallas Goedert * Jalen McMillan * Malik Nabers Free here: <https://youtu.be/UdDwLqOsI40?is=ErNdyKvPiRj-oUxU>

New Market Monday up. I discuss if I’m drafting these players at their new prices: * Rashid Shaheed * Brandon Aiyuk * Tony Pollard * Dallas Goedert * Jalen McMillan * Malik Nabers Free here: <https://youtu.be/UdDwLqOsI40?is=ErNdyKvPiRj-oUxU>

New Market Monday up. I discuss if I’m drafting these players at their new prices: * Rashid Shaheed * Brandon Aiyuk * Tony Pollard * Dallas Goedert * Jalen McMillan * Malik Nabers Free here: <https://youtu.be/UdDwLqOsI40?is=ErNdyKvPiRj-oUxU>

New Market Monday up. I discuss if I’m drafting these players at their new prices: * Rashid Shaheed * Brandon Aiyuk * Tony Pollard * Dallas Goedert * Jalen McMillan * Malik Nabers Free here: <https://youtu.be/UdDwLqOsI40?is=ErNdyKvPiRj-oUxU>

New Market Monday up. I discuss if I’m drafting these players at their new prices: * Rashid Shaheed * Brandon Aiyuk * Tony Pollard * Dallas Goedert * Jalen McMillan * Malik Nabers Free here: <https://youtu.be/UdDwLqOsI40?is=ErNdyKvPiRj-oUxU>

How it feels not being able to draft one of Chase/Puka/Gibbs/Bijan:

How it feels not being able to draft one of Chase/Puka/Gibbs/Bijan:

How it feels not being able to draft one of Chase/Puka/Gibbs/Bijan:

Yards per route since 2024 (min 100 routes) TE1 George Kittle (2.40 lol) TE2 Dalton Kincaid (1.93) TE3 Colston Loveland (1.92) as a rookie!!! TE4 Trey McBride (1.89) TE5 Brock Bowers (1.83) TE6 Darren Waller (1.75) TE7 Charlie Kolar (1.72) ok ok ok ok ok TE8 Tucker Kraft (1.71)

Yards per route since 2024 (min 100 routes) TE1 George Kittle (2.40 lol) TE2 Dalton Kincaid (1.93) TE3 Colston Loveland (1.92) as a rookie!!! TE4 Trey McBride (1.89) TE5 Brock Bowers (1.83) TE6 Darren Waller (1.75) TE7 Charlie Kolar (1.72) ok ok ok ok ok TE8 Tucker Kraft (1.71)

Zay Flowers’ games with 70+ receiving yards: 2025 - 9 2024 - 7 2023 - 6

First @​RotoWire article: Fantasy football QB tiers! -Josh Allen is king, but is he a good value in Round 3? -Favorite mid-round option: Justin Herbert ⚡️ -High-volume dual-threat QBs with affordable ADP? In this economy? -MUCH MORE Great day to be great: <https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/fantasy-football-draft-rankings-2026-qb-tiers-121428>

First @​RotoWire article: Fantasy football QB tiers! -Josh Allen is king, but is he a good value in Round 3? -Favorite mid-round option: Justin Herbert ⚡️ -High-volume dual-threat QBs with affordable ADP? In this economy? -MUCH MORE Great day to be great: <https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/fantasy-football-draft-rankings-2026-qb-tiers-121428>

Yards per route in 3-WR sets since 2024: 1. Puka Nacua (2.96 !!!) 2. Nico Collins (2.40) 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.37) 4. Drake London (2.20) 5. A.J. Brown (2.17) Notables: WR10 Jayden Reed, WR14 Brian Thomas Jr., WR25 Josh Downs, WR53 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR66 DJ Moore

Yards per route in 3-WR sets since 2024: 1. Puka Nacua (2.96 !!!) 2. Nico Collins (2.40) 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.37) 4. Drake London (2.20) 5. A.J. Brown (2.17) Notables: WR10 Jayden Reed, WR14 Brian Thomas Jr., WR25 Josh Downs, WR53 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR66 DJ Moore

Yards per route in 3-WR sets since 2024: 1. Puka Nacua (2.96 !!!) 2. Nico Collins (2.40) 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.37) 4. Drake London (2.20) 5. A.J. Brown (2.17) Notables: WR10 Jayden Reed, WR14 Brian Thomas Jr., WR25 Josh Downs, WR53 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR66 DJ Moore

Yards per route in 3-WR sets since 2024: 1. Puka Nacua (2.96 !!!) 2. Nico Collins (2.40) 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.37) 4. Drake London (2.20) 5. A.J. Brown (2.17) Notables: WR10 Jayden Reed, WR14 Brian Thomas Jr., WR25 Josh Downs, WR53 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR66 DJ Moore

Yards per route in 3-WR sets since 2024: 1. Puka Nacua (2.96 !!!) 2. Nico Collins (2.40) 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.37) 4. Drake London (2.20) 5. A.J. Brown (2.17) Notables: WR10 Jayden Reed, WR14 Brian Thomas Jr., WR25 Josh Downs, WR53 Marvin Harrison Jr., WR66 DJ Moore

Kliff Kingsbury always stuck his WR1 on the left, hardly ever moving him. Terry McLaurin 2024-25: 81.6% of routes from left alignment DeAndre Hopkins 2021-22: 84.2% Combined stats on the **left side**: ***2.05 YPRR*** ***0.47 FP/RR*** On the **right**: ***2.61 YPRR*** ***0.62 FP/RR*** @​FantasyPtsData

Kliff Kingsbury always stuck his WR1 on the left, hardly ever moving him. Terry McLaurin 2024-25: 81.6% of routes from left alignment DeAndre Hopkins 2021-22: 84.2% Combined stats on the **left side**: ***2.05 YPRR*** ***0.47 FP/RR*** On the **right**: ***2.61 YPRR*** ***0.62 FP/RR*** @​FantasyPtsData

“Johnson said that Coleman being a strong student gives him confidence that he will ‘put all of his tools together each week and make it happen’ and added that the wideout showed he’s ‘mature’ by refraining from any angry responses to criticism last year.”

Most drafted *best ball* players after 75 drafts: -QB: Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Malik Willis -RB: Alvin Kamara, Tank Bigsby, MarShawn Lloyd -WR: Jerry Jeudy, Travis Hunter, Rashod Bateman -TE: Greg Dulcich, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland

Most drafted *best ball* players after 75 drafts: -QB: Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Malik Willis -RB: Alvin Kamara, Tank Bigsby, MarShawn Lloyd -WR: Jerry Jeudy, Travis Hunter, Rashod Bateman -TE: Greg Dulcich, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland

Most drafted *best ball* players after 75 drafts: -QB: Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Malik Willis -RB: Alvin Kamara, Tank Bigsby, MarShawn Lloyd -WR: Jerry Jeudy, Travis Hunter, Rashod Bateman -TE: Greg Dulcich, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland

Still insane that Rico Dowdle had a 4 week stretch last season with: 234 Yards + TD 239 Yards + TD 95 Yards 141 Yards + 2 TDs

% of RB targets coming in trailing game scripts, among RBs with over 50 targets (per @​FantasyPtsData): Christian McCaffrey - 45.08% Bijan Robinson - 43.88% Jahmyr Gibbs - 56.99% ****CHASE BROWN - 67.82%** De'Von Achane - 55.29% Kenneth Gainwell - 47.56% Justice Hill - 19.51% Ashton Jeanty - 60.87% RJ Harvey - 36.21% Jonathan Taylor - 37.04% **The Bengals were one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, 29th in EPA/Play and 30th in PPG allowed. In 2026, they are 15th in implied PPG allowe...

% of RB targets coming in trailing game scripts, among RBs with over 50 targets (per @​FantasyPtsData): Christian McCaffrey - 45.08% Bijan Robinson - 43.88% Jahmyr Gibbs - 56.99% ****CHASE BROWN - 67.82%** De'Von Achane - 55.29% Kenneth Gainwell - 47.56% Justice Hill - 19.51% Ashton Jeanty - 60.87% RJ Harvey - 36.21% Jonathan Taylor - 37.04% **The Bengals were one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, 29th in EPA/Play and 30th in PPG allowed. In 2026, they are 15th in implied PPG allowe...

% of RB targets coming in trailing game scripts, among RBs with over 50 targets (per @​FantasyPtsData): Christian McCaffrey - 45.08% Bijan Robinson - 43.88% Jahmyr Gibbs - 56.99% ****CHASE BROWN - 67.82%** De'Von Achane - 55.29% Kenneth Gainwell - 47.56% Justice Hill - 19.51% Ashton Jeanty - 60.87% RJ Harvey - 36.21% Jonathan Taylor - 37.04% **The Bengals were one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, 29th in EPA/Play and 30th in PPG allowed. In 2026, they are 15th in implied PPG allowe...

% of RB targets coming in trailing game scripts, among RBs with over 50 targets (per @​FantasyPtsData): Christian McCaffrey - 45.08% Bijan Robinson - 43.88% Jahmyr Gibbs - 56.99% ****CHASE BROWN - 67.82%** De'Von Achane - 55.29% Kenneth Gainwell - 47.56% Justice Hill - 19.51% Ashton Jeanty - 60.87% RJ Harvey - 36.21% Jonathan Taylor - 37.04% **The Bengals were one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, 29th in EPA/Play and 30th in PPG allowed. In 2026, they are 15th in implied PPG allowe...

.@​CFBMaxChadwick & @​CFB_Dalton rank their Top 10 QBs in the NFL: 1) Josh Allen 2) Joe Burrow 3) Lamar Jackson 4) Patrick Mahomes 5) Matthew Stafford 6) Jordan Love 7) Justin Herbert 8) Dak Prescott 9) Drake Maye 10) Brock Purdy Who is too high/too low? 🤔

“Sarratt is probably the most interesting to me: a potential ball-winning option for Lamar Jackson on the outside. I also want to see if Doyle will give Sarratt some power-slot plays to take advantage of his size and ball-winning ability.”

Travis Kelce lands at No. 79 on the NFL Top 100 list. In 2025 he ranked (among TEs): 4th in Yards 6th in Receptions 14th in TDs

AJ Brown lands at No. 80 on the NFL Top 100 Rankings. Is this too low? 🤔

"I want to be more dynamic after the catch." New @​Titans TE Daniel Bellinger ready to do his part in OC Brian Daboll's offense. READ <https://bit.ly/4gYR8Zv>

NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 RBs: 1) Bijan Robinson 2) Jahmyr Gibbs 3) Saquon Barkley 4) Christian McCaffrey 5) Jonathan Taylor 6) Derrick Henry 7) James Cook 8) De’Von Achane 9) Kenneth Walker 10) Breece Hall (@​JFowlerESPN)

NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 RBs: 1) Bijan Robinson 2) Jahmyr Gibbs 3) Saquon Barkley 4) Christian McCaffrey 5) Jonathan Taylor 6) Derrick Henry 7) James Cook 8) De’Von Achane 9) Kenneth Walker 10) Breece Hall (@​JFowlerESPN)

NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 RBs: 1) Bijan Robinson 2) Jahmyr Gibbs 3) Saquon Barkley 4) Christian McCaffrey 5) Jonathan Taylor 6) Derrick Henry 7) James Cook 8) De’Von Achane 9) Kenneth Walker 10) Breece Hall (@​JFowlerESPN)

NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 RBs: 1) Bijan Robinson 2) Jahmyr Gibbs 3) Saquon Barkley 4) Christian McCaffrey 5) Jonathan Taylor 6) Derrick Henry 7) James Cook 8) De’Von Achane 9) Kenneth Walker 10) Breece Hall (@​JFowlerESPN)

NFL coaches/execs/scouts rank their Top 10 RBs: 1) Bijan Robinson 2) Jahmyr Gibbs 3) Saquon Barkley 4) Christian McCaffrey 5) Jonathan Taylor 6) Derrick Henry 7) James Cook 8) De’Von Achane 9) Kenneth Walker 10) Breece Hall (@​JFowlerESPN)

How NOT to use social media: A MasterClass by Brandon Aiyuk.

Bears RB with true 1-2 punch alongside Monangai. Article projects balanced 45% rush rate (1% above Johnson career average). Community notes Swift likely to see significant volume in Ben Johnson scheme that emphasizes run game. Some prefer Swift/Monangai as safer targets than WR room. Swift had 50 targets in 2025; expected to maintain role in balanced offense.

Article projects 3900 passing yards, just under 27 TDs (below 4000-yard threshold). Community skeptical: 'Bears QBs aren't allowed to do that' (joke about franchise history). Major concern is accuracy: 66.5% catchable pass rate (45th in league), 60.2% clean pocket completion (36th), 66.4% true completion (34th). Multiple comments cite Caleb's poor accuracy as primary reason Rome's catch rate suffered (44% in 2025 despite being target leader). Madden curse jokes. Consensus: Caleb's inaccuracy is holding back Rome and other pass catchers more than their own limitations.

Rookie TE led Bears receivers in 2025 with 713 yards, 6 TDs; 498 yards, 4 TDs through week 15. Ben Johnson draft pick. Community concerned about ADP (3rd round) and cost; rare for TEs to pay off at draft cost. Some see him as most talented of three-headed WR room; others worry he's overpriced and will be 'middle of the pack TE' despite hype. Improved late season while Rome injured; unclear if sustainable or artifact of target vacuum.

Rookie WR improved late season (395 yards, 1 TD through week 15; strong playoff performance). Ben Johnson draft pick; coaches speaking positively. Community divided: some see sophomore breakout setup after full offseason; others note only 3 good games, averaged 5 PPG in real-life playoffs, only 1 game above 60% snap share, and only 3 catches in final 3 games. Concern he's being priced as WR1 after limited sample. Late-season surge occurred while Rome was injured; unclear if genuine development or target vacuum. Loveland and Burden both improved when Rome sidelined.

Article projects 128 targets, 83.4 rec, 1019 yards, 6.7 TDs, 13.2 PPG (WR17); 28% RZ target share; 22% target share. ADP 61 (lowest of starting skill players). Catch rate improved from 44% in 2025 to projected efficiency gain as Caleb connection improves. Community split: bullish on value at cost given 90 targets in 12 games (2025) and target-earning track record; bearish on foot injury durability (Allen Robinson comparison), competition from Burden/Loveland, and Caleb's 66.5% catchable pass rate (45th in league). Some cite first 4 weeks averaging 19.9 PPG as ceiling proof; others note he was injured second half and question if late-season Burden/Loveland surge was due to Rome's absence o...

This is where the Keaton Mitchell to De'Von Achane comps also fall completely flat... Achane has been a truly elite receiving back in the NFL these past few years. He's 3rd in target share, 4th in rec YPG, and 8th in YPRR among all RBs w/ 300+ routes run since 2021. Mitchell has 19 career receptions and averages 7.7 rec YPG through 3 seasons on a 12.9% (!) route share, and is pretty clearly not trusted in pass pro. Extremely thin bet for both any real passing downs or goal line work, not real...

This is where the Keaton Mitchell to De'Von Achane comps also fall completely flat... Achane has been a truly elite receiving back in the NFL these past few years. He's 3rd in target share, 4th in rec YPG, and 8th in YPRR among all RBs w/ 300+ routes run since 2021. Mitchell has 19 career receptions and averages 7.7 rec YPG through 3 seasons on a 12.9% (!) route share, and is pretty clearly not trusted in pass pro. Extremely thin bet for both any real passing downs or goal line work, not real...

Rachaad White is rising to 84 overall in NFFC ADP, with this trend consistent across Underdog, DraftKings, and FFPC. White is the odds-on favorite to lead the Washington backfield in catches in PPR format, supported by three seasons with at least 50 catches in his career, as Jacquory Croskey-Merritt continues to fade.

Jacquory Croskey-Merritt has fallen significantly in NFFC ADP, losing the backfield competition to Rachaad White across multiple formats. The source indicates a decisive shift and continual fade as White emerges as the clear favorite for the Washington backfield receiving role in PPR formats.

Jonathan Brooks is rising sharply in real drafts, going at 75 overall in NFFC ADP with highs as 64 overall—a 20-spot ADP jump ahead of Chuba Hubbard. Drafters are betting on Brooks to lead the backfield and execute a takeover narrative in Carolina, decisively winning the backfield competition.

Chuba Hubbard is falling sharply in NFFC ADP, going off the board at 95 overall with a low of 108 over the last week. He is losing the backfield competition to Jonathan Brooks by 20 spots, and the source notes he is dropping like a rock with significant fade from drafters as Brooks' takeover narrative gains traction.

Justin Herbert is going off the board as QB5 overall in NFFC drafts, which is higher than his ADP in Underdog, DraftKings, and FFPC. NFFC drafters have been pushing Herbert up especially over the last week, reflecting enthusiasm for the Mike McDaniel Chargers offense, though the source questions whether the team can deliver at this elevated price tag with a new offensive coordinator.

Quentin Johnston is rising in NFFC ADP to 62 overall, higher than any other format, serving as an arbitrage hedge against Ladd McConkey's inflated ADP. Johnston outscored McConkey in multiple weeks last year. Mike McDaniel has hyped Johnston physically to Andre Johnson and Julio Jones, and there is enthusiasm for him in the Chargers building that fantasy managers may be undervaluing.

Ladd McConkey's ADP has steamed up significantly over the offseason and is now heavily discussed across fantasy podcasts; however, Quentin Johnston outscored him in multiple weeks last year, making Johnston an arbitrage hedge against McConkey's elevated price.

Chase Brown is positioned as a correlation play with Joe Burrow in Cincinnati's consolidated touch-share offense. The source expects Chase Brown to score a lot and notes that drafters love building this quarterback-running back correlation in tournament settings.

Lamar Jackson is battling Joe Burrow and Drake Maye for QB2 in NFFC six-point passing formats. The source indicates Burrow edges him out for QB2 due to Burrow's superior touchdown-pass upside in this format.

Joe Burrow is positioned ahead of Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson for QB2 in NFFC six-point passing formats, primarily due to touchdown-pass upside. The source notes Burrow could reach 50 touchdown passes if the offense peaks, and the wide receivers are incredibly talented, making him a preferred stacking option in tournament settings where correlation with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown in Cincinnati's consolidated-touch-share offense matters.

Drake Maye is battling Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson for QB2 in NFFC six-point passing formats. The source notes Maye's correlation upside with A.J. Brown in tournament settings, but indicates Burrow edges him out for QB2 due to Burrow's superior touchdown-pass upside in this format.

Colston Loveland is going at 47 overall in NFFC formats, offering potential TE1 overall upside if everything goes right. The source frames him as a way to access elite tight-end production in the same draft range where you could otherwise grab top-tier positional players, making him a value play in high-stakes formats.

Josh Allen is going at 37 overall as QB1, approximately 28–30 spots ahead of QB2 (Joe Burrow), the largest QB1-to-QB2 gap in recent memory. The source acknowledges Allen could return value at this price but emphasizes the opportunity cost: at pick 37, you're passing up potential top-five wide receivers and running backs. The source leans toward waiting on QB rather than taking Allen here, though acknowledges the counter-argument that Allen's scoring upside justifies the early pick.

Parker Washington has fallen behind Brian Thomas Jr. in Jacksonville's WR hierarchy, now going at 57th overall compared to BTJ at 51st overall across multiple formats (Underdog, NFFC, FFPC). However, the source highlights Washington's consistency edge: five of his last seven games played last year he scored 18+ points with unbelievable usage comparable to 2024 Chris Godwin under Liam Cohen, positioning him as a more consistent usage play than BTJ despite the ADP flip.

Brian Thomas Jr. has flipped ahead of Parker Washington in Jacksonville's WR hierarchy across multiple formats (Underdog, NFFC, FFPC), now going at 51st overall compared to Parker Washington at 57th overall; the source expects BTJ to be on the field in all two-wide-receiver sets with potential for a big touchdown-scoring season closer to his rookie-year production.

Christian Watson is steaming up significantly in NFFC drafts, going at 40th overall with variance ranging from 33 to 46 overall; the source identifies him as a 'need to have him' type player and flag plant candidate, driven by the Packers' need to become more pass-happy after two disappointing seasons, Josh Jacobs' volume concerns and off-field issues, and the potential for Watson to replicate 2024 Terry McLaurin's TD-heavy season; Watson is now being drafted ahead of established WRs like Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Jameson Williams, and DJ Moore.

The third overall pick and dynamic talent is falling to 31 overall in NFFC, lower than his ADP in Underdog and FFPC formats, due to fear of the unknown surrounding the Arizona Cardinals offense, quarterback uncertainty (Carson Beck vs. Jacoby Brissett), and potential backfield competition from Tyler Allgeier; the source views this as a potential value opportunity in round three, citing Love's pass-catching ability, explosiveness, and raw talent as reasons to embrace the pick despite near-term uncertainty, though acknowledges the apprehension from high-stakes drafters.

In NFFC, drafters are taking Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs at the 2-3 turn and then following up with a wide receiver at the end of the second round, a pattern opposite to other formats where running back-running back starts are popular; this reflects the 2-3 turn in NFFC becoming a wide receiver tier.

Part of a wide receiver cluster (George Pickens, Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave) where ADP is a key lever for identifying pockets of value; also specifically mentioned as one of the players being cleaned up by NFFC drafters at the beginning of round three alongside Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, and Ladd McConkey, as drafters attack wide receiver at the end of round two and into round three.

Part of a wide receiver cluster (George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Chris Olave) where ADP is a key lever for identifying pockets of value; the source emphasizes multiple good answers exist within this tier and understanding ADP helps identify which players to target.

Part of a wide receiver cluster (alongside DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, Chris Olave) where ADP is a key lever for identifying pockets of value; the source emphasizes multiple good answers exist within this tier and that understanding ADP helps identify which players to target.

Part of a wide receiver cluster (George Pickens, Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice) where ADP is a key lever for identifying pockets of value; also specifically mentioned as one of the players being cleaned up by NFFC drafters at the beginning of round three alongside Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, and Ladd McConkey, as drafters attack wide receiver at the end of round two and into round three.

Target in Dark Horse League Winners category; stepping into A.J. Brown's prominent role in Philadelphia after Brown's move to New England; ADP of 24 overall (back of second round) in NFFC three-wide receiver formats over the last week, ranging from 21–29 overall. A.J. Brown's Philadelphia role featured top-of-NFL target share, first read rates, and air yard share with multiple high-end WR1 seasons; no discount being given to DeVonta Smith in high-stakes formats despite some rankers having Pickens, Collins, Rice, and Olave ahead of him.

Last year's TE1 overall; ADP of 29 overall with significant variance, ranging from 29–34 overall in recent NFFC drafts; eight-spot gap behind Brock Bowers (21 overall), with downside risk of brushing up against the beginning of the fourth round.

Separating himself from Trey McBride and Colston Loveland in ADP with clear consensus TE1 status; ADP of 21 overall; hasn't fallen past the 2–3 turn in NFFC drafts over the last week, ranging from 19–25 overall. Comparison to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's role; expected to lead the NFL in tight end target share by a considerable margin despite run-heavy Vegas offense; role is very fantasy-friendly. On his own island in tight-end-premium formats like FFPC.

Rocket ship ADP riser trending upward across multiple formats; currently at 20th overall in NFFC $350 drafts with ADP range of 13–27 overall over the last week; locked in at 20 overall in NFFC and steaming up on Underdog and FFPC; headed for the 2–3 turn, possibly higher by late summer. The source is personally on Egbuka for a year-two massive breakout season and describes him as a 'need to walk away from my draft with him' type player and dark horse league-winner candidate.

Absolute rocket ship in ADP, steaming up in a major way across formats; going back-to-back with Drake London in FFPC drafts but rising even higher in NFFC (start-three WR format where WRs are at premium). Currently at 14th overall in NFFC drafts, with a high of 8th overall and a low of 21st over the last week; locked inside round two across Underdog, DraftKings, and FFPC. Projected to lead the league in touchdown catches with a pathway to 150 targets; has big-play ability in the Patriots offense. The source sees no scenario outside of injury stopping this ADP steam and believes he could rise to touch the Justin Jefferson/CeeDee Lamb tier (currently at 10th overall) given his role as the clear offensive focal point with minimal target competition—no George Pickens opposite him, known commodities in Romeo Doubs and the RB room (Traveon Henderson vs. Rhamondre Stevenson).

Major year-two breakout candidate backed by sharp money in NFFC and FFPC formats; projected to catch 70 passes in Clint Kubiak's scheme with improved offensive line; averaged 14+ points per game as a rookie despite being an ADP loss, now receiving massive draft capital. ADP has risen sharply to 6th–7th overall in NFFC (locked in at 7th in the last week) and converging with Jonathan Taylor in FFPC; has not fallen past the middle of the second round in any recent drafts, indicating consensus buy-in from sharp drafters.

Locked in as 1.01 overall pick across all formats (NFFC, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog); compared to 2019 Christian McCaffrey with potential for 25+ points per game and career-mark seasons; described as a player who could 'break fantasy football this year' with 'sky is the limit' upside. Backfield competition from David Montgomery has not materially affected Gibbs' production or role; Detroit invested heavily in Montgomery but Gibbs remains unaffected as a workhorse back.

Marks will play on third down for the Texans and could have an expanded role after Dario Gumbawale left the team; both players had exactly nine targets and six catches on third down last year.

Nick Cosmider of The Athletic thinks R.J. Harvey could make a big jump in year two if he's more efficient running between the tackles, though the article doesn't paint an overly optimistic picture.

Daniel Popper of The Athletic believes Omarion Hampton could be one of the best running backs in the NFL if he stays healthy.

Quentin Johnston is expected to benefit from the Chargers offense because of his YAC skills, according to multiple reporters including Daniel Popper of The Athletic.

Williams did not lose his role on important touches like passing down work and goal line opportunities, maintaining a stronger commitment from the Rams compared to the Bears' approach with their backfield.

Monongai is preferred over Blake Corum by a slight margin because his track record in a drive-by-drive rotation with DeAndre Swift makes workload more predictable, and Swift is a better partner than Kyron Williams.

In his last 11 games with DeAndre Swift, Monongai was on pace for 187 carries, eight rushing touchdowns, and 17 catches with 44% of running back carries, showing strong dual-threat potential.

Compared to Kyle Monongai, Corum was more efficient with similar volume; both were on pace for eight rushing touchdowns, but Corum had better yards per carry despite Monongai getting more receiving work.

In his last 11 games starting from week seven, Corum was on pace for 179 carries, 912 yards, and eight touchdowns with 40% of the running back carries, showing strong efficiency and volume.

In full PPR, Dobbins was RB18 per game in 2024 and RB27 per game in 2025, his worst format, yet he's RB38 in ADP, suggesting a potential discount based on recent performance.

Harvey's path to success is limited by Jonah Coleman's presence in the backfield; even if J.K. Dobbins misses time, Coleman will likely get rushing opportunities, reducing Harvey's upside.

The Patriots showed a clear preference for Stevenson over Travion Henderson at the end of last season through the playoffs and Super Bowl, suggesting this trend will continue barring injury.

Stevenson and Travion Henderson both averaged 4.4 yards per carry over 18 games together, but Stevenson had eight goal line carries compared to Henderson's one, suggesting a potential edge in scoring opportunities.

Brooks is coming off consecutive ACL tears in the same knee and sat out a full season after the injury, raising durability concerns despite the opportunity in Carolina.

Hubbard is highly valued by the Panthers coaching staff as a high-character guy and will get plenty of opportunities even if Jonathan Brooks gets healthy, maintaining a strong role in the offense.

Hubbard had 134 carries in 2025 with a longest carry of just 14 yards, indicating limited explosive plays in the running game.

Pollard has finished between RB22 and RB30 per game in all formats three straight seasons and is currently RB28 in PPR ADP. He averaged 100 rushing yards per game in his last five games of the season.

Bateman is the best route runner and most dynamic athlete among the Ravens' receiving options, and the team still has faith in him to be wide receiver two in the offense with potential for WR3/WR4 with some big games in fantasy.

Ben Johnson's process with Caleb Williams started with wanting him to complete 70% of his passes, and the process is ongoing with the team heading in that direction, representing a consistent rise.

DJ Moore was not always on the same page with Caleb Williams in the new offense last year, contributing to some of the quarterback's completion percentage issues.

Ben Johnson set a goal for Caleb Williams to complete 70% of his passes, and the process is ongoing with a consistent rise expected as Williams becomes more familiar with the offense.

Caleb Williams demonstrated strong fourth-quarter performance and comeback ability last year, showing understanding of when to avoid turnovers and keep the offense in the game—a critical skill many young quarterbacks lack.

Caleb Williams' lower completion percentage last year should not be a concern; he was in a new offense and threw the ball away frequently to avoid interceptions, a smart decision-making process that will improve as he becomes more familiar with the system.

Mike McDaniel is working on adjusting Justin Herbert's footwork to get the ball out quicker, focusing on the first couple of seconds to two and a half seconds, where he is most effective.

Justin Herbert's uneven OTAs and mini camp reports should not be a concern, as he is learning new timing and precision in the quick passing game under Mike McDaniel's adjustments to his footwork.

George Kittle will benefit from increased motion and misdirection in the offense, which will free him up as defenses pay attention to other receivers and schematic movement.

George Kittle is expected to benefit from the San Francisco McVey Shanahan-style offense under new coordinator, as tight ends have historically thrived in that scheme.

Dallas Goedert is identified as the number two trusted target for Jaylen Hurts in the Philadelphia offense after DeVonta Smith.

DeVonta Smith is identified as the primary receiver Jaylen Hurts will trust in the Philadelphia offense, positioned as the clear number one target.

Mike Evans is dominating in the red zone in practices and is being drafted as a wide receiver 3 (round 4-5), but his historic average output has been wide receiver 1-2 except in injury years. The analyst believes expectations are too low and he's a great play at current cost.

Jaylen Wright might have some value at some point but currently lacks a clear path to workload compared to other late-round running back options.

Emanuel Wilson still looks a little bit behind in terms of what he needs to do, potentially losing out to George Helani for playing time.

Jadarian Price is expected to get more trust with the team and prove things as George Helani fills the running back role until Zack Charbanet returns.

Jaylen Wright might have some value at some point but does not currently have a clear path to workload like George Helani.

Kenny Macintosh lost the running back three competition to George Helani in recent years and is no longer the preferred option at that position.

George Helani is currently available at running back 73 with the 277th pick (20th round in best balls) and is trending up in ADP with a clear path to workload compared to other running backs in that range.

George Helani, an undrafted free agent, has a legitimate chance to become a fantasy option in 2026 and is trending up in ADP; he's a better player than Kenny Macintosh with good catching ability, contact balance, and movement skills.

Miles Montgomery, signed to the most expensive rookie UDFA contract on the Patriots, could wind up as the running back three based on his talent and could surge into competition for that spot.

Terrell Jennings is locked in as the Patriots running back three role, primarily due to his special teams excellence rather than his running back talent.

Jennings appears locked in as the Patriots running back three based on recent reports.

Thornton is a dynasty league hold with low expectations; the opportunity exists with no crowded logjam of talented receivers ahead of him, making him worth waiting on long-term.

Thornton averaged 13.5 yards per catch in his rookie season on 10 receptions for 135 yards, showing limited early production.

Thornton is likely competing for the third wide receiver role with Jack Bes in the Raiders pecking order and should make the team but is not expected to move up significantly this year.

Thornton is more likely a third-year breakout candidate than second-year, as he's working with coach Drew Lieberman this offseason and has shown improved camp performance, but his route game and separation still need development.

Aiyuk fired his agent about a week ago and has not filed for reinstatement with the league since being placed on the did not report list; the 49ers are reportedly pursuing his guaranteed money due to his failure to attend rehab.

Aiyuk has derailed potential interest from the Raiders (with GM J Peters and Jane Daniels connection from San Francisco), and the situation is deteriorating with no agent representation currently.

Aiyuk is burning bridges with the 49ers through his behavior; he may have one more good year left but will likely continue problematic conduct with any new team and eventually be discarded.

Herm Edwards warned the 49ers that Aiyuk was unreliable regarding facility attendance and had discipline issues as a personality concern at Arizona State.

Scout Scott McLuhan warned the 49ers to stay away from Aiyuk due to reliability concerns from his Arizona State days, noting he was a 'wild card' personality-wise with discipline issues and unpredictable attendance at the facility.

The 49ers would like to release him; he has issues with the organization and is attempting to force the issue by showing up at camp to claim guaranteed money already paid.

His career in the NFL is essentially over due to self-destructive social media behavior and ongoing conflicts with the 49ers organization and teammates.

Priced at tight end 5-6 this year, not elevated from last year's finish, and may end up being a bargain if he continues to play at the same rate.

Kevin Stefansky's scheme is designed to take advantage of tight ends, as evidenced by his success with David Njoku and Harold Fanny Jr., positioning Pitts as an equally talented weapon in the offense.

Analyst is 'feeling it' on Pitts despite QB change, noting he's only getting started at age 25 and has had different QBs/systems throughout his career, suggesting upside ahead.

Kyle Pitts came on late last year with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, but Cousins is no longer there, raising questions about whether Pitts is just getting started or facing roadblocks ahead.

Javante Williams is going at cost as a tail-end or second-half running back two, and if he continues to get the red zone work from last year (when he finished RB12), he will remain super dangerous.

David Montgomery at running back 23 is great value, offering solid running back two production with weeks that have running back one upside, similar to Joe Mixon's first season with 10 points per game.

David Montgomery is the feature back and focal point of the offense, brought in to establish a more smashmouth running game after the team's inability to run the ball in the playoff loss to New England.

Woody Marks is going as running back 70 in drafts, offering contingent upside as a late-round pick if Montgomery gets injured.

David Montgomery is expected to be the feature back, with Marks relegated to receiving work out of the backfield and return game duties, indicating the team found limited value in him as a primary ball carrier despite an extensive run last year.

Woody Marks will not have weekly fantasy value in 2026, according to Matt Waldman's assessment.

Rodgers benefits from a better offensive coordinator than Arthur Smith and veteran receivers who understand his play-calling adjustments and subtle audibles at the line, which suits his strengths better than younger receivers.

Rodgers may become closer to a top-15 quarterback in the bottom half of that range in 2026, as he's more comfortable with his new offensive coordinator and the veteran receivers are a better fit for his play-calling adjustments and line-of-scrimmage audibles.

Baker suffered an AC sprain that impacted his ability to get the ball to receivers accurately, resulting in Egbuka's catchable target rate dropping to near 50%.

George Pickens will not duplicate his career year of 1,400 receiving yards, especially with a healthy CeeDee Lamb. A Round 2-3 pick on inflated value from last year will lose your league unless Lamb gets injured.

Do not draft Christian McCaffrey at all costs. He is 30 years old, coming off a pinnacle year with 416 points and 17 all-purpose touchdowns that will be hard to duplicate, and has been injured 3 out of his last 6 years, making him a coin flip.

Jonathan Taylor is ranked very close to McCaffrey and JSN in round one projections, though he was off the board in this particular draft scenario.

McCaffrey is ranked very close to JSN and Jonathan Taylor in round one projections, making him a viable early pick option.

Jonathan Taylor is mentioned as being off the board in the mock draft, grouped with McCaffrey and JSN as very close projection options in the first round.

Jameson Williams is listed as one of five wide receiver options to fill two starting spots in the mock draft team.

Luther Burden is listed as one of five wide receiver options to fill two starting spots in the mock draft team.

Devonte Smith is listed as one of five wide receiver options to fill two starting spots in the mock draft team.

Analyst strongly endorses Brock Bowers in the middle of the first round, noting the massive edge if he finishes as tight end one by three points per game, and recommends taking him if in that draft position.

Analyst believes Justin Herbert is a good mid-round quarterback pick despite the computer model preferring a wide receiver, citing the Chargers' level of upside.

Computer model recommends Carnell Tate over Justin Herbert, noting that Tate projects well in the Chargers system and locking in a fourth wide receiver provides flexibility for later rounds.

Travis Hunter was selected as the final pick in the mock draft.

Ray Davis would be a solid backup option if Cook suffered an injury.

Tucker Craft would get early down work if Bucky suffered an injury.

Brian Robinson Jr. would be the handcuff option if Bejon suffered an injury, providing backup running back value.

Analyst is comfortable overinvesting in Katon Mitchell and the Chargers offense late in the draft, willing to take him around round 7 and easily cut him if the role doesn't materialize.

Robinson is being considered as a handcuff option late in the draft.

The analyst is making a bet on the Chargers offense and is fine overinvesting in their players late, including Mitchell, because the earliest Chargers pick was around round 7 and he can easily cut Mitchell if the offense underperforms.

Downs has significant upside if he plays in two-wide receiver sets on the outside; the main risk is if the Colts bring in a veteran free agent receiver, which could limit his role to 11 personnel.

Mitchell is a great pick but the analyst doesn't think he needs to be taken this early in the draft; he prefers to target him late.

Rodriguez has capped upside because he won't have any work in the receiving game, and there's uncertainty about his effectiveness coming off a foot injury.

Herbert could be a top three quarterback this season due to the strength of the Chargers offense, making him a lock-up pick at this spot.

Despite his volatility, Williams is still projected as the top player in this range and remains a better pick than other alternatives.

Williams is a frustrating player who had two zeros last season, making him risky to draft this early despite being a better pick than other options. The analyst has factored in a lower projection than average to account for his downside and bottoming-out weeks.

Analyst cites Colston Loveland alongside Luther Burden as having upside due to the Bears' amazing offensive scheme and Caleb Williams' talent, though with uncertainty about whether the offense will reach top-three status.

Analyst is very high on Justin Herbert this season due to the Chargers' offensive potential, bumping his projection up and noting he's 10 spots ahead of ADP; almost wants to consider him in the elite QB tier.

Luther Burden ranks just ahead of Lamar Jackson in pure rankings, though analyst acknowledges Lamar is a great pick in this round.

Analyst is frustrated with Jameson Williams due to his volatility, noting he had two zero-point games last season, making him a risky early pick despite being better than some alternatives; prefers him in flex over WR2.

Analyst notes DeVonta Smith has a relatively locked-in target share with the Bears offense.

Analyst notes Caleb Williams' inaccuracy at times as a factor in the Bears' inconsistent offensive performance, with some games showing underperformance despite an awesome scheme.

Analyst loves Luther Burden's ceiling case with the Bears, citing his immense talent, elite after-the-catch ability, and separation skills that should generate efficient usage; ranks him just ahead of Lamar Jackson in pure rankings and prefers him over Jameson Williams.

Analyst doesn't love Irving this season and wouldn't draft him as a third running back option in the mid-first round.

Appeal comes from knowing the offensive scheme is amazing and having elite talent at QB, similar to Luther Burden's upside.

Loved as a wide receiver option, though Luther Burden is preferred due to higher ceiling potential.

Top wide receiver option by ADP and ranking with very high-end ceiling this season; appeal comes from knowing the offensive scheme is amazing and Kale Williams has the talent.

Not a preferred third running back option in round 5, with analyst expressing doubt about taking him even if available.

Can be taken in round 5 if you're a strong team that consistently makes playoffs and is good at trading and waiver moves, as it unlocks higher ceiling by locking up elite QB early while finding value at RB/WR.

Tight end selected early in the draft scenario.

Quarterback selected early in the draft scenario.

Quarterback selected early in the draft scenario.

One of only two running backs selected in this draft round alongside Quentin Judkins.

Went off the board early, missing the opportunity to draft him in this scenario.

Strong tight end option to add to a roster with two running backs and two wide receivers for a solid early draft foundation.

Mentioned as part of offensive stack risk consideration with Mike Evans due to Purdy injury concern.

Presents offensive stack risk when paired with McCaffrey due to injury concern with Purdy.

Described as an awesome pick option available in the draft strategy being discussed.

Listed among top wide receivers coming off the board in this draft scenario.

Listed among top wide receivers coming off the board in this draft scenario alongside other elite options.

Strong first-round pick option with good setup to grab him and pair with another wide receiver in subsequent rounds for a solid two RB, two WR start.

Ranked below Kairen; part of next tier of running backs.

Described as an awesome pick in the current draft range.

Guaranteed early down and goal line role with great defense; worst case is returning or slightly exceeding value; can easily be low-end RB1 and represents awesome value where he's being drafted.

Preferred wide receiver pick in this draft range; analyst would take him and hope to get David Montgomery in the next pick.

Concerns about inefficiency despite high target volume; feels like offense is forcing the ball to him in low-efficiency role; ranked significantly lower than ADP.

Locked in for touchdowns and early down work with very safe floor; good pick in round three.

Puka Nacua is ranked as part of the top four receivers (Gibbs, Bejon, Jamar Chase, Puka) in the analyst's tier system.

Jamarr Chase is ranked as part of the top four receivers (Gibbs, Bejon, Jamar Chase, Puka) in the analyst's tier system.

Drake London is mentioned as part of the JSN, Aman-Rod, Jefferson, CD Lamb, Drake London tier where the analyst would be willing to take a running back in round one.

CeeDee Lamb is mentioned as part of the JSN, Aman-Rod, Jefferson, CD Lamb, Drake London tier where the analyst would be willing to take a running back in round one.

Justin Jefferson is mentioned as part of the JSN, Aman-Rod, Jefferson, CD Lamb, Drake London tier where the analyst would be willing to take a running back in round one.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is mentioned as part of the JSN, Aman-Rod, Jefferson, CD Lamb, Drake London tier where the analyst would be willing to take a running back in round one.

David Montgomery is viewed as part of the next tier of running backs below Kyren Williams.

Josh Jacobs is ranked below Kyren Williams in the analyst's tier of running backs.

The analyst doesn't love Kyren Williams but would still take him over Scataboo, Josh Jacobs, and Dave Montgomery, though he worries about Cororm's role.

Javonte is locked in for touchdowns and early down work, with only a small chance that Jaden Blue or Phil Mafa gain more of a role this season.

Javonte is a good round three pick who is locked in for touchdowns and early down work, making him a very safe pick despite limited reception upside.

Loveland should not go until round four at least, indicating he is undervalued relative to his draft position.

McCaffrey opens the door to flexible draft strategy in rounds one and two, allowing for running back-receiver or running back-tight end combinations without locking yourself into a box.

Bowers will benefit from an overall great offensive environment with coordinator and quarterback upgrades coming to his team.

Bowers had a strong start last season with 100+ receiving yards through three quarters in week one before getting injured, suggesting he was probably going to go off if healthy.

Bowers is a must-draft player this season who will be exceptional due to coordinator and quarterback upgrades, with a crazy ceiling if he hits his top 15% outcome.

Love is viewed as a good pick in round three but not in the middle of the second round, suggesting his value is better later in the draft.

Hall is viewed as a good pick in round three but not in the middle of the second round, suggesting his value is better later in the draft.

The analyst would not take Josh Allen in round two despite the computer suggesting it, indicating he's overvalued at that draft position.

Henry is ranked 18th and the analyst has him as running back 11, which matches his 16-week performance last season; he offers high variance with a low floor in non-touchdown games but can 'drop an absolute nuke' and win championships.

Bowers is ranked 20th overall but grades out as a very good mid-round two pick despite historical data suggesting tight ends in round two underperform; the analyst believes he's worth the selection despite dynamic rankings bumping him down.

McCaffrey has injury risk but if healthy, he will be a top-three running back and excellent in all formats, making him a strong first-round pick.

JSN is coming off an awesome season with a similar offense, and with the Seahawks losing Ken Walker and having a rookie running back, there's potential for increased passing volume and opportunity for JSN.

Henderson has a higher ceiling than Swift or Montgomery but significantly more risk, with the possibility of repeating last season's performance or worse.

Hubbard is in the tier where the analyst does not want him as a second running back, indicating he falls into the riskier range after the solid mid-tier options.

Pollard is in the solid range of running backs where the analyst is comfortable with them as a second running back or flex option, representing good value before the drop-off.

Warren is in the solid range of running backs where the analyst is comfortable with them as a second running back or flex option, representing good value before the drop-off.

JT is a first-round consensus pick, though the analyst notes he could go earlier than Puka due to league preference for running backs this year.

Puka is mentioned as a first-round consensus pick, though the analyst notes uncertainty about whether Puka or JT will go earlier depending on league preference for running backs.

Chase is mentioned as a first-round consensus pick in 12-team half-PPR leagues.

Barkley is listed as a first-round consensus pick in 12-team half-PPR leagues alongside other elite options.

Gibbs is mentioned as a first-round consensus pick in 12-team half-PPR leagues, representing the top tier of running back options.

Nabers fell 1.2 spots to 35 overall on Underdog and is sinking further. Adam Levitan previously said he'd start considering Nabers in the 40s when his ADP was mid-second round; now at 37.6 on DraftKings and falling, that threshold is being approached. Nabers tore his ACL on September 28th, didn't have surgery until October 28th, and had full meniscus repair. He was spotted with hands-free crutches in January and reportedly dealt with knee stiffness throughout recovery. He had a cleanup procedure a couple months ago. The Giants' goal is no longer to get him out for start of camp; the goal sounds like week one return, but in reality, a PUP list placement is certainly possible, keeping him out the first four games. Levitan weighs multiple risk scenarios: worst case, Nabers continues to have knee issues with stiffness and setbacks, possibly not playing at all in 2026; another bad scenario is he returns but isn't himself with a limiting knee. Against this is the obvious smash: Nabers is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL with roughly zero target competition on the Giants. Levitan thought it was an easy decision when Nabers was going in round two, but now in the mid-40s range, he's starting to take nibbles. He notes that one positive report about his knee could send him to an ADP of around 18, and at 40 overall, a team can survive if Nabers isn't right until mid-season, allowing the team to be supercharged when he gets healthy.

Aiyuk fell 9.8 spots to 204 overall. Adam Levitan characterizes the situation as going beyond normal wide receiver diva behavior: crazy rants on social media, going off on the 49ers front office, firing his agent, dumping money on the ground, and fighting (or possibly fake fighting) with Jaden Daniels. Speculation suggests the Commanders would be interested in Aiyuk once the 49ers cut him, but the social media nonsense has turned them off. Levitan buys this speculation because Aiyuk isn't a star anymore—unlike Puka Nakua, who can say insane stuff and the Rams don't care because he's elite, Aiyuk hasn't been good since 2023 and has major injury history, so teams don't want to put up with the nonsense. Levitan is very risk-averse on zeros (per Leone's best ball manifesto) and has very little Aiyuk right now with no plans to start taking him. The social media situation may also make the Commanders more likely to sign Stefan Diggs instead.

McMillan fell 2.2 spots to 142 overall. With Mike Evans gone (massive opportunity vacated in targets and end zone targets) and Baker Mayfield presumably back healthy, Adam Levitan expects McMillan to open the season in three-wide-receiver sets and sustain that role. New offensive coordinator Zach Robinson favors three-wide-receiver sets (he ran them frequently with the Falcons despite having limited receivers like Darnell Mooney and Ray Ray McLeod). McMillan showed flashes as a rookie with eight touchdowns before breaking his neck in a preseason game and missing most of 2025; he returned late with 2.14 yards per route run on 83 routes. Levitan prefers McMillan at 142 overall over Ted Hurst in the late rounds, noting McMillan has already shown he can move the needle at the NFL level. The core three-wide-receiver set (Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan) with Bucky Irving and Kenny Gamewell at running back should be throw-heavy and in plenty of shootouts.

Goddert rose 1.4–1.5 spots to 123 overall. Adam Levitan identifies three market mistakes: (1) ignoring Goddert's splits when AJ Brown is off the field—2.85 yards per route run and 27% targets per route run, both of which would have ranked second among tight ends last year; (2) bias against the Eagles offense based on Kevin Petulo's poor play last year and AJ Brown dysfunction; (3) misunderstanding the Eli Stowers situation—while Stowers is an awesome pass catcher listed as tight end, he is nowhere near ready to play in line at the NFL level and will be a situational wide receiver in year one, not impacting Goddert's role. Levitan views Devonta Smith–Jalen Hurts–Goddert stacks as really solid at cost, and even just Hurts–Goddert as something you can do really cheaply.

Pollard rose 2.8 spots to 73.5 overall on Underdog. From a workload perspective, Adam Levitan believes Pollard is going too late: he has three straight years of 240+ carries and caught 33+ balls in five straight years, and will be the bell cow again for the Titans with Tajay Spears in a pass-catching/change-of-pace role and Nick Singleton as a return man. Year two Cam Ward and Brian Dable represent an upgrade over Brian Callahan/Mike McCoy. Levitan targets Pollard in best ball when thin at running back alongside Ramondre Stevenson, Jalen Warren, and Rico Jones. However, in redraft and season-long formats, Levitan is unlikely to target Pollard because the downside outcomes don't hurt as much and the 8-10 point baseline doesn't help as much compared to best ball; he prefers bigger swings in redraft where he can grind the wire and trade.

Shaheed rose 7.3 spots to 138 overall ADP on DraftKings heading into 2026 despite no hard news or depth chart changes, driven by positive offseason buzz. Adam Levitan buys the narrative: the Seahawks made a major capital investment (three-year, $51 million contract with $35 million guaranteed in November trade), lost Kenneth Walker, and have regression risk in Jackson Smith-Njigba's 33.9% target share from last year. New offensive coordinator Brian Fleury and head coach Mike McDonald are expected to fully integrate Shaheed into a bigger role; per Jeremy Fowler, Shaheed had a major spring and is hitting it off with Sam Darnold, with the team planning to give him more short and intermediate targets. Levitan sees upside at 138 overall and views him as a viable fifth or sixth wide receiver in best ball, noting Shaheed-Darnold stacks (including Shaheed-Darnold-Cup or Shaheed-Darnold-AJ Barnard combinations) are all viable.

The source criticizes Geno Smith's 2025 performance, noting he 'thought he was Aaron Rodgers last year trying to make every throw' and had a '19 to 17 TD to interception ratio, 200 yards per game,' indicating poor decision-making and inefficient play that makes the Jets unlikely to contend in 2026.

The source expresses preference for Shedeur Sanders over Deshaun Watson at quarterback for the Browns, implying Watson's role or status is uncertain and that Sanders is the preferred option moving forward. The source states: "as long as Shador Sanders out there and not Deshaun Watson," indicating Watson is not the preferred QB option.

The source notes the Raiders 'got Max Crosby back in the fold at least,' indicating a positive roster addition of the key defensive pass rusher returning to the team.

FantasyPros expresses concern about Malik Nabers' health status heading into 2026. The source notes that with a healthy quarterback (Daniel Jones), healthy running back, and healthy Nabers, the Giants become more viable in the NFC East. However, the source also notes that "every single structurally offensive position has like a question mark around injuries," making the Giants' viability dependent on staying healthy. The source speaker explicitly states concerns about Nabers' health will be "a problem" for the Giants' outlook.

FantasyPros identifies Matthew Stafford's health as the sole risk factor for the Rams' Super Bowl contention. The source says the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC by a wide margin, with the only concern being "Ken Stafford, stay healthy." The Rams are favored at 4-5.5 odds to win the Super Bowl. The source plans to bet heavily on the Rams when odds boosts become available in the offseason. Stafford's durability is critical to the Rams' championship window.

Marvin Harrison is expected to "do something at some point" and make a big step up in the Cardinals offense in 2026. FantasyPros notes that Harrison has been a recurring disappointment ("Maserati Marv was too late"), with the team and analysts repeatedly expecting him to break out. However, the source projects that with more efficiency from Harrison and fewer pass attempts overall (due to the Cardinals' run-heavy approach), Harrison will finally deliver on his potential. If Harrison fails again, Michael Wilson could benefit as a Brissett favorite. The source's FantasyPros projections have Harrison for 1,000+ yards, but the source is skeptical given the Cardinals' shift toward the run game.

Trey McBride is expected to take another step forward in 2026 with Jacoby Brissett as the Cardinals' quarterback. FantasyPros notes that when Carson Beck looked his best, he had tight ends thrown to, suggesting the tight end position gets a boost under Brissett. McBride's expected improvement will reduce target share for Michael Wilson and other receivers, making McBride a focal point of the Cardinals' passing attack.

FantasyPros is selling Michael Wilson repeating a 1,000-yard season in 2026. Wilson had 1,006 yards in 2025 after two consecutive 500-yard seasons, but the source cites several headwinds: (1) Jacoby Brissett had to throw excessively in 2025 due to a poor Cardinals defense, inflating Wilson's volume; (2) Trey McBride is expected to take another step forward, reducing targets to Wilson; (3) the Cardinals went heavy on running backs in free agency and the draft (Algier, Love), signaling intent to run more and pass less; (4) Marvin Harrison is expected to improve, further reducing Wilson's target share. The source projects a 10% reduction in pass attempts, which combined with improved efficiency elsewhere, will push Wilson below 1,000 yards. However, if Marvin Harrison busts again, Wilson could be a Brissett favorite and exceed expectations.

ESPN's Ben Solak projects that Dak Prescott could throw for 5,000 yards in 2026. FantasyPros sells this projection, arguing that while the Cowboys have strong passing weapons (CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and an underrated tight end), the 5,000-yard threshold is unlikely. Matthew Stafford led the league with 4,700 yards last year, making 5,000 yards an outlier projection. Prescott will be efficient and finish top-five in passing yards, but is not expected to reach 5,000. The source also sells the projection citing the Cowboys' improved defense in the offseason, which should reduce the need for Prescott to throw as much. Dak had 4,500 passing yards in 2025 despite missing receivers (CeeDee Lamb out, other receivers out) and had the most pass attempts of his career; with a better defense, the Cowboys will have fewer offensive snaps and pass attempts, reducing Dak's volume. The source projects Dak will "cross 45 [touchdowns] for sure" but expects a decline in passing yards due to improved defense limiting offensive opportunities.

Albert Breer reports that Patrick Mahomes is trending towards being cleared for 11-on-11 work at the start of training camp, signaling recovery progress from his injury. However, FantasyPros debate Week 1 availability. Wolcock buys the report and sees value on Mahomes and the Chiefs from a future betting perspective, citing Mahomes' competitive nature and the team's ability to rest him early given their schedule and backup quarterback support. Welsh and Pisapia are more skeptical, arguing that with an early bye in Week 5, the Chiefs should rest Mahomes through the first four games to ensure full health, especially given the suspect early schedule (Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Raiders). Welsh projects the Chiefs could go 3-1 or 2-2 without Mahomes and prefers to have him fully healthy for December rather than risk re-injury in September.

FantasyPros expresses serious concern about Aiyuk's social media behavior and public conduct, arguing it signals potential locker room issues and mental instability that could damage his free agency prospects. Aiyuk has lost representation, publicly trashes team ownership and coaching staff, refuses to play, and appears to be holding the 49ers hostage despite receiving $50 million guaranteed. The source contends that the more antics Aiyuk creates, the fewer team options he will have as a free agent, as potential suitors will view him as a liability. The source adds that Aiyuk has only had two 1,000-yard seasons and is overpaid, noting that receivers are becoming commoditized in the draft and that Aiyuk's behavior mirrors Antonio Brown's trajectory—a cautionary tale of talent undermined by off-field conduct.

Travis Etienne signed a $12 million per year deal with the New Orleans Saints and is part of a Saints offensive rebuild designed to improve the team's ability to run and pass. Etienne's 'abilities running back will make it easier to pass' in an offense that also added offensive lineman David Edwards and drafted receiver Jordan Tyson. The source believes 'the Saints are going to win this division' and that the team is 'going to be pretty good,' positioning Etienne as a key piece in the Saints' offensive scheme under head coach Kellen Moore.

The source identifies Jordan Tyson as the Saints' draft pick at receiver, described as "the highest upside receiver in the draft at Arizona State." Tyson's impact in the passing game alongside Chris Olave will make it easier to run the Saints' offense. The source frames Tyson as part of a coordinated offensive build: offensive lineman David Edwards makes it easier to run and pass, Tyson's receiving impact makes it easier to run, and Travis Etienne's running ability makes it easier to pass. The source believes the Saints will "win this division" with these additions.

Kyler Murray projects as a top-12 quarterback floor with upside to top-10, based on two key factors: (1) Murray has 'basically never not been a top 12 fantasy quarterback or scored less than like 17 fantasy points a game' (excluding last season's ACL recovery), and (2) Kevin O'Connell's quarterbacks have 'basically other than JJ McCarthy, never not had a top 12 fantasy quarterback that he has coached or has a guy that scored less than 17 fantasy points per game.' Murray is going as a fringe top-20 quarterback in drafts despite stepping into a Vikings offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Juwan Jennings. The source calls this 'like kind of a cheap shot of the guy, maybe being like a top 10 quarterback on a good offense playing indoors.' Murray could reasonably be the last starting quarterback taken in a 12-team league, making him a value pick. The source notes Murray is 'probably the most underrated player in the NFL at this point, because Kyler, I think at this point people have forgotten how talented he is' due to his time in Arizona being a 'wasteland football wise' and off-field distractions (video game memes). In his five games last year after returning from ACL injury, 'his legs seemed to come back a little bit' and 'there's some rushing potential with them.' Justin Jefferson's enthusiasm for Murray is notable: 'the way that Justin Jefferson talks about Kyler Murray is very funny. If you read between the lines, especially he's like, he just knows how to put touch on the ball,' which the source characterizes as 'such a shot across the bow of the other quarterback who's there right now' (JJ McCarthy). However, there is a caveat: Murray and JJ McCarthy are splitting reps at minicamp/OTAs, and the source is 'very curious to see when training camp comes, if they just allow Kyler to take all the reps or how long they split that,' as splitting first-team reps all August could hurt his development.

Jalen Waddle is 'clearly the best highest upside player you could draft in this range' at wide receiver 24 (mid-fourth round, ~47th overall pick), going behind Mike Evans. Despite historical frustration with Waddle's projection-to-production gap (the 'Waddle model': projected 12, scores 7), the source believes 'it's more likely that he overperforms over expectation this year than not.' The key uncertainty is Sean Payton's snap allocation philosophy; last year Sutton had 85% of snaps while the next closest was 58%, but Waddle is 'obviously a different level talent wise.' The source argues 'You could argue that's because no one was good enough to earn 80% of the snaps. So maybe this is the year where it's Sutton and Waddle and everybody else kind of rotates.' Davis Webb is now the offensive coordinator (not Payton calling plays early in the season), which the source views as a potential mitigating factor against Payton's unpredictable rotation tendencies.

Malik Willis is characterized as 'this year's Justin Fields, but with like a couple pluses next to his name'—a better passer than Fields with a 36% pass rate in three starts with the Titans and 37% with the Packers, indicating the Dolphins will run the ball heavily. Willis is the fastest quarterback in the NFL (possibly faster than Lamar Jackson) with an absolute cannon arm, but the source does not project him as a top-15 quarterback in standard 12-team leagues; he's an 11th or 12th round upside pick. While his rushing totals across three starts (6 carries 41 yards, 6 carries 73 yards 1 TD, 9 carries 60 yards 2 TDs) are 'legitimately sustainable from a fantasy perspective,' the Dolphins' poor record, tanking situation, and terrible receiver core (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Malik Washington as presumptive starters, with rookies Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Kevin Coleman behind them) constrain his ceiling. Limited passing production (more than 200 yards twice, more than 140 yards twice in his career) further limits upside. The source advises: 'Don't draft him' and notes he's 'the kind of guy that maybe you cut.'

Devon Achan was kept by the Dolphins and will be a primary target in Malik Willis' run-heavy offense (36-37% pass rate). The source projects Achan will get significant volume in the Dolphins' quick-hitting offense. Achan's previous success in Miami under Tua—where he was top-two in targets and yards with 80 catches—suggests similar dump-off volume under Willis.

Kyle Pitts will see increased target volume when Tua Tagovailoa is playing, as Tua's quick-hitting offense favors tight end targets. When Kirk Cousins came to the Falcons (in Minnesota), Pitts had the best stretch of his entire career as a tight end, suggesting that Cousins' quick-processing style benefits Pitts. Pitts will be a primary target when Tua is playing, contrasting with Drake London's reduced value in that scenario.

Drake London's fantasy value is highly dependent on which Falcons quarterback is starting. When Michael Penix Jr. plays, London projects as a top-six receiver, comparable to Puka Nakua in receiving categories, as Penix pushes the ball downfield and gives London shots down the field. However, when Tua Tagovailoa is the starter, London's value drops significantly due to Tua's quick-hitting, dump-off heavy offense that favors Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson instead. London suffered a PCL injury (knee stability) around the time Penix was replaced, adding injury concern to the quarterback uncertainty.

When Tua Tagovailoa is playing for the Falcons, Bijan Robinson will be the number-one running back in fantasy football due to the volume of dump-offs and screen passes in Tua's quick-hitting offense. The source compares this to how Devon Achan was top-two in targets and yards with 80 catches when Tua was in Miami. Robinson's fantasy value will fluctuate significantly depending on whether Tua or Michael Penix Jr. is the starting quarterback, as Penix pushes the ball downfield more.

The source is skeptical of Tua Tagovailoa's ability to succeed with the Falcons, attributing much of his previous success in Miami to Mike McDaniel's system, Tyreek Hill, and Jalen Waddle rather than Tua's own talent. The source describes Tua as having low physical traits, noting he cannot throw deep balls effectively (receivers have to come back for them), cannot move, and cannot throw on the move. The source characterizes Tua as a 'point guard' or 'short point guard who can't create his own shot' who is 'really limited.' However, Tua can run a quick-hitting offense and will likely play at some point this season, with his presence affecting Falcons skill players' target distribution. When Tua plays, Bijan Robinson becomes the number-one running back in fantasy due to dump-offs and screens, while Drake London's value drops and Kyle Pitts sees increased targets.

Michael Penix Jr. is competing with Tua Tagovailoa for the Falcons starting job while recovering from his third ACL surgery. Penix has only played 14 games and 12 starts, making him inexperienced despite being a top-10 pick. If Penix starts, he will push the ball downfield more than Tua, creating different fantasy dynamics for Falcons receivers. The source leans slightly toward Penix starting but acknowledges it could go either way, with Tua potentially starting and Penix getting time to recover later in the season.

The source is very bullish on Brock Bowers, stating he wants Bowers in every fantasy team this year. The source believes Bowers will be the focal point of the Raiders offense similar to how Jackson Smith-Njigba was the centerpiece of the Seahawks offense, and projects Bowers as a potential top-three tight end in targets, catches, and yards. The source believes Bowers will be underrated this year because Kirk Cousins is likely to play extended time, meaning the Raiders offense won't experience a rookie quarterback dip. The source emphasizes that he cannot miss a Bowers season where that upside is on the table, acknowledging the risk of discussing this in July before the Raiders' actual performance but maintaining conviction in Bowers' target volume and role.

The source believes Ashton Jenty will be underrated this year because the Raiders offense will focus heavily on getting the ball to Brock Bowers, but Jenty benefits from the same offensive philosophy. The source is not worried about a rookie QB dip affecting the tight end room, suggesting Jenty has value as a secondary target in an offense designed around tight end usage. Jenty will be underrated because Kirk Cousins is likely to play extended time, meaning the Raiders offense won't experience a rookie quarterback dip.

The source does not expect Fernando Mendoza to be a fantasy-relevant player this year; Mendoza was the first overall pick from undefeated national champion Indiana but had only two snaps under center in his final college season, and Kubiak's offense won't need to be dumbed down with Kirk Cousins as the likely starter. Mendoza is more of a rushing quarterback than Cousins, which affects the Raiders' passing game distribution. The source believes Mendoza's mentality is well-suited to the setup where he must earn the starting job and sit behind Cousins initially; Mendoza understands the process and is willing to go through it, unlike JJ McCarthy. Mendoza could play the entire year if Cousins gets injured (e.g., pulls a calf in week two).

The source argues Kirk Cousins has a serious chance to play most or all of the season for the Raiders despite Fernando Mendoza being the first overall pick; Cousins finished 2025 4-0 and looked better after tearing his Achilles in 2023 and struggling in 2024, and the source believes ownership will eventually push for the veteran over the rookie. However, the source does not expect Cousins to be a fantasy-relevant player regardless of whether he plays; his value is primarily in how his presence affects other Raiders skill players like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jenty. The Raiders face a difficult early schedule (Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets, 49ers, Seahawks, Broncos in weeks 1-11).

Ricky Pearsall has flashed in training camp but hasn't proven anything at the NFL level and has had injury issues; he's unlikely to command a significant target share in the 49ers offense.

Christian Kirk has a history of injuries beyond his recent shooting incident; the source suggests he won't command a meaningful target rate in the 49ers offense and won't significantly cut into Mike Evans' target share.

George Kittle is recovering from an Achilles injury and appears to be ahead of schedule. The source notes the location of his Achilles tear was apparently easier to repair, suggesting a better-than-average recovery trajectory, though recovery timelines remain uncertain.

The source believes Mike Evans is a great fit in San Francisco and will be really good if healthy, drawing comparison to Devante Adams' success in LA. Evans is expected to dominate targets in the 49ers offense given thin receiver competition; with Juwan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne gone, there are 143 vacated targets. Ricky Pearsall has flashed but hasn't proven anything at the NFL level and has injury issues. Christian Kirk has a history of injuries beyond his recent shooting incident and won't command a meaningful target rate. Rookie John Stribling is expected to be redshirted in Kyle Shanahan's offense. The two guys expected to get the ball the most in this offense are Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans. The source views Evans as a fourth-round pick (mid-40s ADP) and argues he's being overlooked despite strong underlying metrics; the source believes Evans will have a better fantasy season than Luther Burden and notes that even before last year, his underlying stats looked good, suggesting he still has elite talent.

Fifth-round rookie pass-catching running back unlikely to significantly cut into Kenneth Walker's workload; the source notes that rookie day-three running backs rarely earn primary pass-catching work in their first year, describing it as 'almost never' happening.

The source views Kenneth Walker as one of the best value players in all fantasy football this year. Walker signed a three-year, $43 million deal with Kansas City (average $14.3M annually), making him the sixth-highest-paid running back in the NFL behind Saquon, CMC, Devon Achane, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall. When a team pays a running back $14M per year, he will get the overwhelming majority of carries and not lose work to fifth-round rookies like Emmitt Johnson. Walker is plan A, B, and C for the Chiefs' offensive explosiveness. He will get goal-line touches because all other Chiefs running backs are very small and the team did not bring back Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs have been literally dead last in every important explosive rushing metric over the last two seasons, and Walker's skill set—he is a home-run hitter who can create explosives on the ground—directly addresses this critical need. Andy Reid's screen-design expertise will utilize Walker's pass-catching ability; Walker is a better pass catcher than people think. Walker was frustrated with Seattle's usage, particularly being taken off the field near the red zone, and views his move to Kansas City as a 'prove it' opportunity with motivation to demonstrate he's an elite running back. The source projects Walker as a potential first-round pick and likely the best second-round pick available, ranking him as a mid-to-late second-round pick behind eight running backs (Jameer Gibbs, B.J. Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, McCaffrey, James Cook, Derek Henry, Ashton Gentis, Saquon) and in a tier with Devon Achane, Marion Hampton, Chase Brown, and Kyron Williams. The source expects Walker to get 20+ touches per game depending on passing game usage, with elite ceiling if deployed heavily in the passing game.

The source expresses strong interest in Romeo Dobbs as a solid number-two receiver in New England, calling him the captain of the 'all boring team'—players who could define the season despite low name value. Dobbs had the same points per game last year as Mike Evans and DJ Moore, indicating strong underlying production. He is a good route runner who came through consistently for Green Bay when receivers were injured, making reliable third-down plays. In New England, Dobbs becomes a rock-solid complementary piece alongside AJ Brown, with the Patriots' receiving corps now settling into more appropriate roles. The source expects Dobbs to be a lovely flex option on fantasy teams.

The source believes AJ Brown is positioned for an elite fantasy season in New England. Brown is an elite receiver who was not fully engaged in Philadelphia but will be highly motivated on the Patriots. At 29 years old and healthy, the offensive environment is significantly better than his last two years in Philly; Drake May threw 500 more yards than Jalen Hurts has ever thrown in a season and is better equipped to make throws complementing Brown's skill set. Brown adds verticality the Patriots lacked and can line up in the slot more than he did in Philadelphia, where he was dead last in slot usage. The source ranks him 14th overall, though other analysts have him 21st and 36th, reflecting significant variance in the market. The source acknowledges the Eagles traded Brown for a reason and that he checked out on a contending team, which is a red flag, but contextualizes this as motivation for a fresh start rather than a permanent concern.

Mike McDaniel hung wanted posters around the GM's office wanting Keaton Mitchell and the fullback they signed, signaling strong organizational commitment. However, Liam Cohen notes that if Amari Hampton misses half the season, it's unclear if Mitchell will get 15 touches or just 10-12 with Kamani Vidal also involved. Cohen prefers Mitchell in best-ball format because it's impossible to predict when he'll have his 50-yard touchdown games, but he should be drafted in every format to see what happens in week one. When the Dolphins had the number-two scoring offense in the NFL a few years ago, they got two top-five scoring seasons from Keaton Mitchell and Raheem Mostert, plus the number-one scoring wide receiver in Tyreek Hill. Now with Justin Herbert replacing Tua, there's potential for a similar outcome. Cohen believes Mitchell's ADP will only get higher as training camp buzz builds. He's not a pure handcuff because Kamani Vidal will play, but he has flex appeal.

Fell off a cliff last year on 150 touches with extremely poor underlying metrics. Showed signs of slowing down last season, and the Vikings will be careful to limit his touches this season. Liam Cohen ranked Jordan Mason ahead of Aaron Jones before the Collar report and is now completely doubling down on that ranking. Cohen views Aaron Jones as one of his fades and felt good after writing him up. He believes the team knows Jones has hit his cliff, evidenced by Jones returning on a much smaller contract than previously.

Being selected in the 11th round on Underdog and 13th round on Yahoo, six to eight picks after Aaron Jones. The Vikings backfield is the cheapest in drafts with no starting running back going later than Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason. Liam Cohen projects a pathway for Mason to post 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns as the Vikings RB1 for early-down work. Aaron Jones fell off a cliff last year on 150 touches with extremely poor underlying metrics, while Mason averaged the 12th most yards per carry and 10th most yards after contact per rush. During the four games without Aaron Jones last year (weeks 3-7), the Vikings offense was not cooking, and Mason was RB16-RB24 on usage in half-PPR, but Cohen likes him more in half-PPR than full PPR. The Vikings are leaning more into outside zone, which plays into Mason's strengths as a runner. If the Vikings' injury-plagued offensive line stays healthy (they only played together 25% of snaps last season), the running game could improve significantly. Cohen views him as having a pathway similar to the Jamal Williams season where he gobbles up goal-line touchdowns; at the very high end, he could be a Javante Williams-type outcome. Even eight goal-line touchdowns would be enough for him to be a flex play in half-PPR.

Currently under investigation by the district attorney's office regarding potential domestic violence charges. While cleared to practice now, new evidence could emerge at any point, triggering a commissioner's exemption. Typical suspension for domestic violence-related issues is around six games. This legal uncertainty creates opportunity for Marshawn Lloyd to potentially become the starter not due to injury but due to off-field issues.

Not a real running back but rather an RB3 hybrid/fullback player. Was a lead blocker for Josh Jacobs for much of last season. The Raiders want Marshawn Lloyd to be the RB2, not Brooks, limiting his fantasy relevance.

Lloyd has dealt with recurring hamstring injuries but is currently on the practice field looking good. He underwent full body imaging and discovered he was overcompensating at his ankles and hips due to a prior torn ACL, leading to soft tissue injuries. He's worked with doctors and medical advancements to address these issues. Currently the RB1 or RB2 in drills depending on Josh Jacobs' availability. Lloyd is being priced as if he won't play this year, but Liam Cohen believes his injury risk is not materially higher than other backs given he's healthy today. The team wants him to be the RB2; Chris Brooks is more of an RB3 hybrid/fullback player. Josh Jacobs is older and injury-prone, creating a pathway for Lloyd to get significant touches. His ADP has fluctuated based on injury news and practice participation, but the clearest pathway for him to be the number two runner is if he stays healthy. Lloyd caught a bunch of passes in college and has the size to handle the rock and goal-line work. He was a third-round pick (88 overall) for the Packers. Third-round fantasy running backs going into year three have historically been exciting. If he stays on the field through Labor Day, he should be ranked right next to Tank Bigsby as one of the best handcuffs in fantasy.

Hubbard is not expected to completely go away if Jonathan Brooks emerges as the lead back; he's a fine enough back but won't prevent Brooks from reclaiming a lead role if Brooks returns to his early second-round profile. There's a chance Brooks and Hubbard split work early in the season, with a toss-up of who's actually the starter by Halloween and Thanksgiving. Hubbard's presence doesn't significantly diminish Brooks' upside.

Brooks is a running back two drafted in the 11th round on Yahoo (9th on Underdog) with more talent than all other running backs drafted around him; he can catch passes, has lateral shiftiness, finishes through contact, and has the size coveted at the position. Despite two ACL tears—one during his final year at Texas and another in his third game of his rookie season after not playing until week 12—he didn't play all of last year. The Panthers are taking a slow approach with him in training camp, and he hasn't reached his top speed yet. There's very little tape to evaluate since the first ACL tear, though he had some nice flashes in a Tampa Bay game when he returned. The Panthers are clearly relying on him based on their offseason moves, going from Rico Datto (RB1 in multiple weeks last year) to only adding A.J. Dillon. Brooks has the highest upside and league-winning potential among running backs drafted after him if he claims his backfield. He's climbed 21 spots during the offseason and has a chance to be the Panthers' most talented back. Hubbard is not expected to completely go away if Brooks emerges as the lead back; he's a fine enough back but won't prevent Brooks from reclaiming a lead role if Brooks returns to his early second-round profile. There's a chance Brooks and Hubbard split work early in the season, with a toss-up of who's actually the starter by Halloween and Thanksgiving.

Bigsby was traded to the Eagles in week two for fifth and sixth round picks and posted elite efficiency metrics last year: RB1 overall in EPA per carry, RB2 in yards per carry, and RB6 in success rate among 60 qualifying running backs—all better than Saquon Barkley. He's the clear handcuff to Barkley and would immediately enter the top-15 fantasy running back conversation if Barkley misses time. His efficiency metrics suggest he might be the best handcuff on the board, ahead of Isaiah Pacheco. Bigsby is the fifth handcuff off the board but should be ranked higher; there's a legitimate case for him to be the number-one handcuff in fantasy football this season. The Eagles offense is superior to other backup situations, and Bigsby has evidence of being pretty good, unlike Isaiah Pacheco. He's a best-ball play rather than a redraft staple, but grabbing him as your RB5 alongside an RB4 like Chris Rodriguez or Bill Krosky Merritt allows you to play both sides of the sleeper profile.

Rodriguez has a history with Jaguars OC Liam Cohen, who has been excellent for fantasy running backs; Cohen describes Rodriguez as a thumper who picks up hard yards. Rodriguez is more trusted than committee mate Basial Tootin right now and is likely to get goal-line touches. At 5'11", 224 lbs, he won't get many receptions, but if he captures 80% of Travis Etienne's RB10 production from last year, he'll be valuable as a flex starter or RB4. He had a left foot procedure following an early offseason injury but is expected to be a full go at training camp. Rodriguez's EPA per carry metrics on short yardage (5 or fewer yards to go) and in the red zone are elite; he posted +0.2 EPA per carry in the red zone last season, significantly better than committee mates Basial Tootin and Travis Etienne. His upside case includes a Javante Williams-type range of outcomes, with potential to handle goal-line carries and churn yardage in short-yardage situations.